Why Portugal’s youth ‘brain drain’ will play a key part in elections

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Good morning.

Today, our Iberia bureau chief explains why Portugal’s missing generation is at the heart of its election this month, and our man at the WTO reports on a crackdown on activists (and silence from Brussels).

Have a great weekend.

Growing pains

Portugal will choose a new prime minister on March 10, and angst over “brain drain” of the younger generations is at the heart of the election campaign, writes Barney Jopson.

Context: Fears that young people will leave the country are not a new phenomenon in Portugal, long a nation of emigrants and still the poorest country in western Europe. But the current exodus, exacerbated by low wages and soaring housing costs, has sparked soul searching.

Gonçalo Garcia, a 22-year old economist in Porto, said: “If you look at how long it would take to buy a house, it’s like ‘wow’. It’s possible, but only if you live with your parents till you’re 35.”

Discontented youth are an opportunity for Chega, a far-right party led by founder André Ventura, which is rising in the polls and cementing its place as Portugal’s third-biggest party.

Since the last election in 2022, its support has grown most sharply among people aged 18 to 24. Polls suggest Chega could win up to 20 per cent of the overall vote, but the biggest party will be either the ruling Socialists or the Democratic Alliance, a new centre-right coalition.

Neither, however, is likely to secure a majority. That means Portugal may be headed for a period of parliamentary horse-trading in which Chega holds the key to a conservative majority.

Inês Coelho, a 22-year-old student at the Nova School of Business and Economics, said her main concern was “being able to sustain a future” in Portugal. But instead of sticking it out, she had lined up a post-graduation job in Brussels. Foreign employers “acknowledge our talent, acknowledge our knowledge”, she said.

Portugal’s accession to the EU in 1986 heralded an era of growth. But nearly 40 years on, many Portuguese are disheartened to see that being in their own country’s middle class still leaves them far from the middle classes of Germany, France and even Spain.

“The labour market has still not converged,” said Hugo Marques de Sousa, 23, who graduated from the Nova School this month.

At a campaign event near Porto, Chega’s Ventura told the audience that one way to keep the young in Portugal was to make housing affordable again.

“I don’t want to leave my country because I like my country,” said Inês Lauro, a 19-year-old social work student. “But the politicians are not doing a great job.”

Chart du jour: Racing ahead

Formula One is trying to attract and serve a younger, more diverse fan base — without alienating core supporters.

Free trade vs free speech

When three people from civil society groups invited by the World Trade Organization to its biennial conference in Abu Dhabi were detained by police, several governments complained — but the European Commission remained silent, writes Andy Bounds.

Context: Our World is Not for Sale (OWINFS), a global activist coalition, said two people were detained on Tuesday for filming inside the convention centre where ministers from more than 160 countries were meeting. An Indian farmer was also hauled in for handing out an open letter. They were released after a couple of hours.

The UAE outlawed criticism of the state after a crackdown during the 2011 Arab Spring. However, it allowed protests in Dubai during the COP28 meetings in December after pressure from the UN.

Deborah James, facilitator of OWINFS, condemned the “repression” while Rahmat Maulana Sidik, of Indonesia for Global Justice, talked of a “climate of fear”.

Even after WTO director-general Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala took up complaints with Thani bin Ahmed Al Zeyoudi, the UAE trade minister chairing the conference, NGOs were still prohibited from displaying banners or approaching delegates. Flyers could be distributed — but not outside the conference centre.

“The WTO said that they could not guarantee our safety for that one activity,” said James.

Todd McClay, New Zealand trade minister, said he had met Okonjo-Iweala to “raise concerns”, while stressing the need “to be respectful to our host countries”.

The US, the Netherlands and Norway also complained, but the European Commission declined to comment. Officials said it was a matter for the WTO.

A UAE representative to the WTO said the two had “worked together to enable the appropriate avenues for expressing diverse viewpoints while also ensuring the safety of delegates”.

Meanwhile, trade talks were extended yesterday as countries dug in on the big issues: prolonging a ban on ecommerce tariffs, reforming the WTO’s dispute settlement system, abolishing subsidies for overfishing, and cutting state support for farmers.

What to watch today

1. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni visits US President Joe Biden.

2. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz visits Italian President Sergio Mattarella.

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