The U.S. unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% in July amid a significant slowdown in hiring, fuelling concerns fears that the labor market was deteriorating and potentially making the economy vulnerable to a recession.
BofA Global Research brought forward its expectation of the first cut to September from December, while other major brokerages now expect the Fed to cut rates in all the three remaining meetings of the year.
Here are the forecasts from major brokerages after the July unemployment data:
New rate cut estimates Old rate cut estimates (in
(in bps) bps)
Sept Nov Dec Sept Nov Dec
Goldman 25
Sachs 25 25 25 25
BofA
Global Research 25 — 25 — — 25
UBS 50 25
Global Wealth 50 25
Management
J.P.Morgan 50 50 25 — — —
Wells 25
Fargo 50 50 25 25
Nomura 25
25 25 25 25
Deutsche
Bank 25 25 25 25 25 25
Morgan
Stanley 25 25 25 25 25 25
Citigroup 50 50 25 25 25 25
TD
Securities 25 25 25 — — —
Peel
Hunt 25 25 25 25 — 25
Barclays 25
25 25 25 25
* UBS Global Research and UBS Global Wealth Management are distinct, independent divisions in UBS Group
Source: Economy - investing.com
