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Australia’s job gains extend strong run in Sept, dashing rate cut hopes

The Australian dollar rose 0.4% to $0.6691, rebounding from a one-month low, while three-year bond futures fell 6 ticks to 96.21.

Markets pared the chance for a first interest rate cut in December to 30% from 46% before the data.

Figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Thursday showed net employment surged 64,100 in September from August, when they rose a downwardly revised 42,600. That was well above market forecasts for a 25,000 rise, and most of the gains were in full-time employment.

The jobless rate held relatively steady at a downwardly adjusted 4.1%, from 4.2% the previous month, where it has generally been over the past six months, noted the ABS.

The participation rate edged up to another all-time high of 67.2%, while hours worked rose another 0.3%.

“Job growth has been remarkably strong over the past year, defying a marked slowdown in economic growth,” said Sean Langcake, head of macroeconomic forecasting for Oxford Economics Australia.

“We do think they support our view that a rate cut is further away than the market currently thinks. We still see the first RBA rate cut coming in Q2 2025. “

Bjorn Jarvis, ABS head of labour statistics, noted that there are still large numbers of people entering the labour force and finding work in a range of industries.

The RBA has held its policy steady since November, judging the current cash rate of 4.35% – up from 0.1% during the pandemic – is restrictive enough to bring inflation to its target band of 2-3% while preserving employment gains.

However, underlying inflation has remained sticky and the labour market is only slowing gradually, a reason that the RBA has all but ruled out a rate cut this year, lagging other major central banks in kick starting an easing cycle.


Source: Economy - investing.com

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