Economists polled by Reuters expect headline inflation to increase 0.3% in November on a monthly basis, taking the annual rate to 2.7% from 2.6% in October. The CPI data is the last piece of crucial economic data to be released ahead of the Fed’s next monetary policy meeting due on Dec. 17-18.
Here are the forecasts from major brokerages before the CPI data:
Rate cut estimates (in bps)
Brokerages Dec’2024 2025 Fed Funds Rate
BofA Global 25 50 3.75%-4.00% (end of
Research June)
Barclays (LON:BARC) 25 50 3.75%-4.00% (end of
2025)
Macquarie 25
25 4.00%-4.25%
Goldman Sachs 25 100 3.25%-3.50% (through
(through September 2025)
September
2025)
J.P.Morgan 25 75(throug 3.75% (through
h September 2025)
September
2025)
*UBS Global 25 125 3.00%-3.25% (through
Research end of 2025)
TD Securities 25 100 3.25%-3.50% (through
end of 2025)
Morgan Stanley 25 100 3.375% (Q4 2025)
(through
June
2025)
Jefferies 25 100 3.25%-3.50% (through
end of 2025)
Nomura – 50 4.125% (through end
of 2025)
*UBS Global Wealth 25 100 3.25%-3.50% (through
Management end of 2025)
Deutsche Bank (ETR:DBKGn) 25 No Rate 4.375%
Cuts
Citigroup (NYSE:C) –
25 3.00%-3.25% (H1
2025)
Societe Generale (OTC:SCGLY) 25 – –
HSBC
25 100 3.25%-3.50%
* UBS Global Research and UBS Global Wealth Management are distinct, independent divisions in UBS Group
Source: Economy - investing.com
