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    Analysts see Saudi debt risk on oil prices fall

    Saudi Arabia’s government debt-to-GDP ratio surged from under 2% in 2014 to 31% by 2020, and while the ratio has since stabilized, the Kingdom remains the largest international dollar bond issuer among emerging markets since the beginning of 2022. Despite a current debt-to-GDP ratio of 29.6%, which is considerably lower than the emerging market average of around 70%, Capital Economics warns of potential increases in the debt ratio if oil prices decline more than the Saudi government’s projections.The 2025 Budget from Saudi Arabia indicates that budget deficits will persist, with domestic and international debt issuances as the primary financing method. Earlier this year, the National Debt Management Centre’s 2025 Borrowing Plan was followed by a highly successful $12 billion international bond issuance.Capital Economics’ analysis includes several scenarios based on different oil price levels. The public debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to decrease only if oil prices remain above $80 per barrel. However, under the firm’s central scenario, where oil prices drop from $80 per barrel today to $55 per barrel by 2027-2030, the Saudi public debt-to-GDP ratio could climb to 50% by 2030 and 60% by 2033, shifting the country’s sovereign risk from low to moderate.A more severe scenario, with oil prices falling to $40 per barrel without other changes, could see the public debt-to-GDP ratio nearly double to almost 90% by 2030. Nonetheless, if Saudi Arabia increases oil production to 12.0 million barrels per day, which is 35% higher than current levels, and if oil prices were at $40 per barrel, the debt ratio would approach 80% by the end of the decade.This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C. More

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    EU to approve new French deficit-cutting plan on Tuesday

    Senior officials of EU governments agreed last week to support Bayrou’s plan, which will replace a more front-loaded scheme designed by his predecessor Michel Barnier that was rejected by the French Parliament in December.The plan aims to cut France’s budget deficit to 5.4% of GDP this year from 6.2% in 2024. Barnier wanted to reduce it more sharply in 2025 to 5.0% of GDP. But the end goal — 3% of GDP in 2029 — was the same for both plans and that was the EU condition for approval by the European Commission.”The new plan stays within the requirements of the Commission,” one EU diplomat close to the discussions said.”Ultimately, the most important part is that the Commission takes its job seriously in monitoring the implementation of the plan and enforcing the rules if and when the French budget strays outside of the boundaries set in the plan,” the diplomat said. More

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    Donald Trump’s memecoin hovers around $11 bn market cap ahead of inauguration

    The crypto industry has been buoyed since Trump’s election victory in November, with its proponents hoping he will help usher in a new era of digital asset adoption. Trump, who previously called Bitcoin “a scam”, has pledged that America would be “the crypto capital” of the world once he returned to office.Major crypto exchanges including Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN) and Binance have said they plan to list Trump’s memecoin token.Some 200 million of the digital tokens have been issued and another 800 million will be released in the next three years, the coin’s website said, adding that the tokens are meant as expressions of support instead of investment opportunities. The website noted that it is “not political” and “has nothing to do” with any political campaign, office, or governmental agency.”My NEW Official Trump Meme is HERE! It’s time to celebrate everything we stand for: WINNING!” Trump wrote in a post on his social media platform Truth Social.The memecoin, $Trump, which started selling for $10 each, traded as high as around $70 on Sunday. It pared back some of these gains after the launch of incoming US First Lady Melania Trump’s coin, $Melania.By 06:29 ET (11:29 GMT), $Trump was trading at $54.25, giving it market value of about $10.8 billion, according to CoinMarketCap.Meanwhile, Bitcoin notched a fresh record high on Monday, extending a recent advance in the price of the world’s most well-known cryptocurrency since Trump’s win. Bitcoin, which began last year trading at $43,000, was exchanging hands at $108,216.50 at 06:19 ET. More

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    FirstFT: Trump prepares dozens of executive orders

    $99 for your first yearFT newspaper delivered Monday-Saturday, plus FT Digital Edition delivered to your device Monday-Saturday.What’s included Weekday Print EditionFT WeekendFT Digital EditionGlobal news & analysisExpert opinionSpecial featuresExclusive FT analysis More

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    Column-BoE could slow QT to hold off bond vigilantes 

    , (Reuters) – Bond vigilantism has returned to Britain, raising the prospect that the government will be forced to consider politically toxic tax rises or public spending cuts to placate investors concerned about the country’s fiscal health. But Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves could also get a helping hand from the Bank of England’s balance sheet.In the first weeks of 2025, certain gilt yields spiked to highs last seen in 2008. While yields have since come off these highs, following softer-than-expected December inflation data, it is fair to assume the UK bond market could be in for a bumpy ride in the coming months.Recent market gyrations primarily reflect the global jump in government bond yields, driven by uncertainty about the potentially inflationary policies that U.S. President Donald Trump’s second term might bring.But gilts have been buffeted around more than most, suggesting investors may have UK-specific concerns, namely that the new Labour government’s policies will increase debt without doing much to improve growth.While all this has been happening, the BoE has continued with its ‘quantitative tightening’ (QT) program, selling gilts after years of being the major buyer of UK government bonds. Unlike the Federal Reserve, the BoE isn’t just letting debt roll off its balance sheet but is actively selling.The gilt market is worth around 2.6 trillion pounds ($3.17 trillion), and at its peak, the bank held nearly 900 billion pounds of it. If the BoE’s current QE plans continue unchecked, that number will drop to roughly 560 billion pounds by the end of September. The UK is expected to issue approximately 300 billion pounds worth of gilts this year and a similar amount in the following fiscal year. Meanwhile, the bank is planning to reduce its bond holdings by 100 billion pounds. The gilt market will thus have to absorb around 400 billion pounds over the next 12 months.If the bank were to halt its sales, it would effectively cut supply by 25%, which would very likely put downward pressure on yields.That would be welcome news for Reeves, who already faces annual debt interest payments of 105 billion pounds, a figure that will rise if government bond yields climb, eating into the resources she has available to boost the economy.But given the BoE’s messaging, a complete halt is unlikely. What’s more probable is that the bank could decide to slow the pace of divestment, mimicking the Fed’s passive approach – i.e., not reinvesting as bonds mature.Roughly 87 billion pounds of gilts will mature this year, so this strategy could reduce the bank’s gilt sales by around 13 billion pounds over the next 12 months.There is a problem, however.One reason recent bond market jitters did not reach the chaotic levels seen during the 2022 UK market meltdown presided over by former prime minister Liz Truss is that Reeves has been clear that she respects the independence of the central bank and the Office for Budget Responsibility. Truss explicitly wanted to rein them in.Any hint that this independence is being infringed now could unnerve investors.So if the BoE were to act, it would have to show markets that it was doing so to uphold its mandate – not because of political or fiscal concerns.One potential justification would be market instability, as the BoE is tasked with ensuring markets function properly. BoE Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden said earlier this month that the bank was monitoring the market closely, but there was currently no cause for concern.A second motive could be impaired monetary policy transmission. For example, if the BoE cuts official rates when it meets in early February yet market interest rates continue to rise, this would tighten monetary conditions when the bank wants the reverse.Simon French, chief economist at Panmure Liberum, noted that a change in the QT program “wouldn’t be controversy free, with political accusations…and claims the bank is helping finance a fiscal overstretch. But it is the right thing to do for the UK economy”.The BoE was accused of deliberately aiding the government when massive fiscal spending coincided with an increase in quantitative easing during the Covid-19 pandemic, allegations the bank pushed back hard against. The following cycle of sharp rate hikes doused that debate, at least temporarily.Having committed to its pace of bond sales, the BoE won’t be eager to change tack. But if gilt market volatility intensifies, it may not have a choice.    (Mike Peacock is the former head of communications at the Bank of England and a former senior editor at Reuters.)($1 = 0.8195 pounds) More

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    Top IKEA retailer warns in Davos that tariffs could drive prices higher

    DAVOS, Switzerland (Reuters) -For budget furniture retailer IKEA, the fewer trade tariffs there are, the better, CEO of Ingka Group, the biggest global IKEA franchisee, told Reuters on Monday as businesses braced for higher possible U.S. tariffs under President Donald Trump.”We, and I think probably all international companies thrive from harmonised tariffs, if you like, and actually, the fewer the better, because at the end of the day there is a risk in any country with tariffs that you need to, as a company, pass it on to the customers,” Jesper Brodin said on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland.Inflation and high interest rates have had a “damaging” impact on consumers over the past few years, Brodin said, adding that he saw demand improving.”We are quite optimistic about the outlook and we already see a shift where people are returning to, I would say, a normal situation when it comes to consumption,” he said.Ingka Group, which runs IKEA stores in 31 countries and accounts for 90% of global IKEA sales, reported a drop in annual net profit and sales last year after cutting prices to lure inflation-weary shoppers back to its big blue stores.Despite weak consumer demand, Brodin said his only real worry was climate change. Pointing to the severe economic impacts of extreme weather events like the Los Angeles fires, he said leaders of Europe, the U.S., and China must find an aligned approach to combating climate change.”There is still a myth out there that adapting to mitigate climate change will be an economic loss, in IKEA we have found that is absolutely the opposite,” said Brodin.”We are here to meet other peers and businesses, government leaders in order to speed up the change because the world is not acting fast enough on this.”Join GMF, a chat room hosted on LSEG Messenger, for live interviews: https://lseg.group/4ajdDTy More

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    MEXC Introduces Contract Address Search to Streamline Memecoin Trading Navigation

    MEXC, a global leader in cryptocurrency trading platforms, has officially announced the launch of the Contract Address Search, a new feature enabling traders to precisely locate target tokens by their unique contract address. The feature specifically addresses navigation challenges in the surging meme token market, and helps users identify target trading pairs with greater speed and precision, delivering a more efficient trading experience.Memecoins have evolved from internet jokes into a significant cultural and financial phenomenon, with some tokens reaching multi-billion dollar market capitalizations. As one of the earliest exchanges to embrace this emerging sector, MEXC has witnessed firsthand how these community-driven tokens have transformed retail trading. With the resurgence of the bull market and increasing prominence of memecoins, the rapid proliferation of similarly named projects has created new challenges for traders.In response, MEXC has introduced the Contract Address Search feature, allowing users to precisely locate tokens by their unique blockchain identifiers. Instead of relying on potentially confusing name-based searches, traders can now simply paste a token’s contract address into the global search or Spot market search bar to find their exact target token. This innovation reflects MEXC’s ongoing commitment to providing efficient, comprehensive trading solutions as the memecoin market continues to mature.The feature complements MEXC’s recently launched Meme+ trading zone, which has rapidly expanded to include 109 Memecoin listings since its December 24 debut. With an average of five new projects added daily, MEXC continues to enhance its platform capabilities to meet evolving market demands. This latest innovation reflects the exchange’s ongoing commitment to improving user experience and maintaining its position as a leading platform for cryptocurrency trading, particularly in emerging market segments.In the future, MEXC will continue to refine its product offerings, further enhancing the security and convenience of its cryptocurrency trading services for users.About MEXCFounded in 2018, MEXC is dedicated to being “Your Easiest Way to Crypto.” Known for its extensive selection of trending tokens, airdrop opportunities, and low fees, MEXC serves over 30 million users across 170+ countries. With a focus on accessibility and efficiency, our advanced trading platform appeals to both new traders and seasoned investors alike. MEXC provides a seamless, secure, and rewarding gateway to the world of digital assets.MEXC Official Website| X | Telegram |How to Sign Up on MEXC |Futures TradingContactPR ManagerLucia Hulucia.hu@mexc.comThis article was originally published on Chainwire More