Aurelia Butler

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    in Economy

    US tariffs on EU could crimp eurozone growth, UBS says

    The potential tariffs are modeled as part of a broader analysis on global trade tensions, highlighting how their economic repercussions depend heavily on Europe’s response and broader global tariff actions.According to UBS, the direct GDP impact of a standalone 10% US tariff on the Eurozone would range from a decline of 0.28 percentage points (pp) with full retaliation to 0.43 pp if the Eurozone refrains from retaliating. The primary drag on GDP arises from declining exports, which outweigh the impact on imports.“The nominal value of a 10% tariff on the Eurozone is worth about EUR30bn, or 0.2% GDP,” economists said in a note.The overall economic impact on GDP, if tariffs were applied exclusively to Europe, is estimated to range from a decline of 28 basis points with full retaliation to 43 basis points without retaliation, driven entirely by a larger drop in exports compared to imports.Inflationary pressures from such tariffs are contingent on Europe’s actions. UBS notes, that retaliatory tariffs could raise inflation by up to 13 basis points (bp) in consumer prices and 26 bp in the GDP deflator.Without retaliation, inflation effects remain subdued due to lower import price adjustments and limited currency depreciation.“We estimate the inflation impact between -2bp and +26bp for the GDP deflator and between 1 to 13bp for CPI,” economists wrote.“If Europe does not retaliate and thus its import prices do not go up, the inflation impact is largely a function of the currency depreciation and growth weakness; by contrast, retaliation lifts import prices and inflation,” they explained.When combined with broader US tariff escalation, such as a 60% tariff on Chinese imports, the scenario changes. UBS points out that the depreciation of the Chinese yuan (RMB) relative to both the US dollar and the euro could offset the inflationary impacts in Europe.“If RMB depreciates more than other currencies due to higher US tariffs, imports from China could cheapen, neutralizing the inflationary impact of Europe’s own tariffs,” the note states.On domestic demand, UBS estimates the fallout to be relatively modest, with impacts ranging between -0.01 to -0.13 pp depending on retaliation. More

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    in Economy

    Japan auto unions group sets pay hike target for first time in 7 years

    TOKYO (Reuters) -Labour unions at major Japanese auto manufacturers have set a specific target for pay hikes for wage negotiations for the first time in seven years, as they aim to spread wage growth momentum to smaller firms, a key goal of the government and central bank.The labour group, the Confederation of Japan Automobile Workers’ Unions, will seek monthly pay hikes of 12,000 yen ($79.15) or more in spring wage negotiations, it said on Wednesday.The target represents an increase of about 5% in base pay at member firms with workforces of less than 300 employees.Japanese policymakers hope that broader and sustained wage increases will boost consumption and shore up fragile economic growth.The labour group decided to revive a numeric target to give guidance to smaller unions, such as those at parts makers, who can use it as leverage in their negotiations, its executives told a news conference.The group has 12 unions, including those of Toyota Motor (NYSE:TM) and Honda (NYSE:HMC) Motor as well as of parts makers, under its umbrella, with 784,000 workers in total.”With the actual target, we want to help smaller union members demand sufficient wage growth with confidence,” Akihiro Kaneko, the group’s chair, said.The government and labour unions are focusing on achieving wage hikes at smaller firms, as bumper pay hikes have been skewed to larger firms so far.Japan’s largest labour union group Rengo, which has the auto unions group under its umbrella, is seeking wage hikes of at least 5% in 2025, similar to this year’s hefty increase.The target includes hikes of more than 3% in base pay – a key barometer of wage strength as it provides the basis for bonuses, severance and pensions.Japanese companies agreed to an average 5.1% wage hike earlier this year, the biggest increase in three decades, following a 3.5% rise last year, according to Rengo, which has about 7 million members.($1 = 151.6100 yen) More

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    in Economy

    Biden to hit Chinese cleantech imports with more tariffs

    $75 per monthComplete digital access to quality FT journalism with expert analysis from industry leaders. Pay a year upfront and save 20%.What’s included Global news & analysisExpert opinionFT App on Android & iOSFT Edit appFirstFT: the day’s biggest stories20+ curated newslettersFollow topics & set alerts with myFTFT Videos & Podcasts20 monthly gift articles to shareLex: FT’s flagship investment column15+ Premium newsletters by leading expertsFT Digital Edition: our digitised print edition More

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    in Cryptocurrency

    Bitcoin price today: steadies at $97k with eyes on CPI data

    The world’s largest cryptocurrency remained squarely within a $90,000 to $100,000 trading range established over the past few weeks, amid cooling optimism over friendly regulations under incoming President Donald Trump. Broader crypto prices clocked heavy losses, as risk appetite worsened this week on heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Asia. Crypto markets were also subject to profit-taking after a strong run through November. Bitcoin rose 0.6% to $97,483.5 by 00:53 ET (05:53 GMT). Focus on Wednesday was squarely on upcoming consumer price index inflation data, which is expected to factor into the Federal Reserve’s plans for interest rates. The reading comes just a week before a Fed meeting, where the central bank is widely expected to cut rates by 25 basis points.But markets have turned more uncertain over the long-term outlook for interest rates, amid recent signs of sticky inflation. Expansionary and protectionist policies under Trump are also expected to underpin inflation, keeping rates higher in the long term.High rates bode poorly for speculative assets such as crypto, given that they limit the amount of liquidity available for speculation. MicroStrategy Incorporated (NASDAQ:MSTR)- the biggest corporate holder of Bitcoin- rose on Tuesday amid speculation that the stock could be added to the Nasdaq 100- a move that could spur further upside in the stock.Microstrategy surged about 450% in value this year as its Bitcoin bet paid off, with the company continuing to issue more debt and buy more Bitcoin.Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas said the firm’s addition to the Nasdaq 100 could invite net buying of at least $2.1 billion Microstrategy shares by exchange-traded funds to gain exposure. Among broader crypto prices, most major altcoins were a mixed bag on Wednesday after being walloped by heavy profit-taking in recent sessions. But most tokens were still trading substantially higher for the year.World no.2 crypto Ether fell 1.1% to $3,661.36. XRP steadied at $2.3368 after rebounding from a 10-day low in the prior session. Solana rose 1.3%, while Cardano and Polygon were flat. Among meme tokens, Dogecoin fell 3.4%.  More

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    in Cryptocurrency

    Aptos Foundation Expands Global Footprint with New Abu Dhabi Office

    UAE Offers Gateway to Innovative, High-Growth Developers, Institutions and InvestorsAptos Foundation, a global blockchain leader dedicated to supporting the development of the Aptos ecosystem and Web3 worldwide, is proud to announce it will be opening a new office in ADGM, Abu Dhabi’s leading international financial centre. This strategic expansion marks a significant milestone in Aptos Foundation’s mission to build a robust global blockchain ecosystem.The Abu Dhabi office will serve as a hub for Aptos Foundation’s activities in the region, focusing on fostering partnerships and supporting projects designed to grow the Aptos ecosystem.The decision to establish a presence in Abu Dhabi reflects the UAE’s position as one of the most forward-thinking markets globally when it comes to blockchain and Web3 adoption. The UAE has cultivated an environment that attracts visionary institutions and builders, supported by government policies that actively promote Web3 initiatives. By setting up operations in ADGM, Aptos Foundation will engage directly with these forward-thinking builders and institutions, creating new opportunities to collaborate and expand the Aptos ecosystem. This expansion is a continuation of Aptos Foundation’s commitment to working with local stakeholders and playing an active role in accelerating blockchain adoption across the region.About Aptos FoundationAptos Foundation is dedicated to supporting the development of the Aptos protocol, decentralized network and ecosystem and driving engagement with the Aptos ecosystem. By unlocking a blockchain with seamless usability, Aptos Foundation aims to bring the benefits of decentralization to the masses. For more information about Aptos Foundation and its initiatives, users can visit: www.aptosfoundation.orgContactCommunications LeadHannah NoyesAptos Labshannah@aptoslabs.comThis article was originally published on Chainwire More

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    in Cryptocurrency

    Bitcoin (BTC): $100,000 Not Forgotten, Dogecoin (DOGE) Loses It, Shiba Inu’s (SHIB) Catastrophic Drop: What’s Next?

    A major factor in this setback was the liquidations. Positions with excessive leverage, especially in Ethereum and Bitcoin, have compelled the market to adjust. A difficult environment for additional upward movement has been created by the selling pressure from leveraged longs, as evidenced by the $172 million in Bitcoin liquidations alone. The dangers of unmanageable leverage on cryptocurrency markets are highlighted by this type of liquidation cascade.Technically speaking, Bitcoin is currently receiving support at its 26 EMA, a crucial level that frequently serves as a rebound point during corrections. Nonetheless, the inability to hold above $100,000 or retest indicates a lack of bullish conviction. Compared to the previous sharp rallies, the trading volume is still lower, indicating less buying zeal.The overall structure of Bitcoin remains bullish in spite of these difficulties. Instead of indicating a full reversal, the consolidation pattern that is developing on the chart indicates that Bitcoin is taking a break. If tested, the important support levels of $94,000 and $85,000 could act as the foundation for a more robust recovery. The biggest obstacle on the resistance side is still $100,000, and a break above it might spur new momentum.Even though the road to $100,000 has been postponed for a while, it has not been forgotten. The current correction offers the market a chance to reset and forge a stronger base because it is a normal stage in the larger market cycle for Bitcoin. Investors will need to exercise patience while Bitcoin moves through this crucial stage. The ascending channel breakdown suggests that Dogecoin’s bullish rally may have petered out, at least temporarily. Additionally, volume trends point to waning interest, as trading activity is not sustaining additional upward movement. This decline is consistent with the larger crypto market correction, in which declines on a variety of assets have been facilitated by overleveraged positions and profit-taking.In terms of technical analysis, $0.31 and $0.27 are the next support levels to keep an eye on. Dogecoin needs to stay in these areas in order to prevent more losses and possibly regain its footing. Before focusing on higher targets like $0.45 or even $0.50, any recovery attempts must first overcome the $0.40 level, which is currently acting as a resistance. Dogecoin’s recent actions underline how vulnerable it is to fluctuations in market sentiment and speculative trading. Massive rallies have historically been fueled by its community-driven nature, but the current climate necessitates caution. Uncertainty about DOGE’s immediate course is increased by the need for correction on the larger market. For the time being, traders and owners of Dogecoin should keep a careful eye on the main levels of support and resistance. A more substantial decline could be possible if $0.31 is not held, but a recovery above $0.40 could reignite bullish optimism. As usual, navigating the erratic nature of this well-known meme coin will require perseverance and a well-defined plan. SHIB is currently trading at about $0.00002648, and its failure to maintain recent highs underscores the growing investor concerns. The recent consolidation pattern on the chart has clearly broken down, indicating a loss of momentum. Notably, SHIB has fallen below $0.00002700, a crucial support level that served as a bull market stronghold. This failure raises the possibility of additional downside pressure if bulls are unable to regain control in a timely manner. SHIB is more vulnerable, as volume analysis shows declining buying interest. The asset may be under more pressure if this decline in momentum encourages more selling activity. The next key support levels to keep an eye on given the current trajectory are $0.00002430 and $0.00002200. If these levels are breached, the decline may be even more severe and may even test the $0.00002000 threshold. All is not lost for SHIB, though.After significant corrections, the asset has historically demonstrated the ability to recover quickly, frequently propelled by speculative trading and community-driven hype. In order to restore bullish momentum, SHIB needs to recover above $0.00002800 and continue to rise steadily, bolstered by rising volume.This article was originally published on U.Today More

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    in Economy

    Party City mulling second bankruptcy filing, Bloomberg reports

    Woodcliff Lake, New Jersey-based Party City is behind on rent at some locations, the report said, citing people familiar with the matter.Party City didn’t immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment.The company first filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in the U.S. in January last year, with $150 million in debtor-in-possession financing to support its operations and reported $1 billion to $10 billion of estimated assets and liabilities. In September, the retailer reached a plan to exit bankruptcy, which saw a cancellation of about $1 billion in company debt and turned all its equity value over to the retailer’s lenders.Troubled retailers often seek bankruptcy protection following the holiday season to take advantage of the cash cushion provided by recent sales. More

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    in Economy

    Asia Pacific sees slight growth downgrade on US trade policies, China steady – ADB

    According to the ADB, developing Asia and the Pacific is projected to grow by 4.9% in 2024, slightly below its September forecast of 5.0%. Growth for 2025 is now estimated at 4.8%, a modest downgrade from the earlier projection of 4.9%, due to weaker domestic demand in South Asia.Inflation forecasts have also been revised down to 2.7% for 2024 and 2.6% for 2025, partly reflecting anticipated moderation in oil prices.“Strong overall domestic demand and exports continue to drive economic expansion in our region,” said ADB Chief Economist Albert Park.“However, the policies expected to be implemented by the new US administration could slow growth and boost inflation to some extent in the People’s Republic of China (PRC), most likely after next year, also impacting other economies in Asia and the Pacific,” he added.China’s growth forecast remains steady at 4.8% for 2024 and 4.5% for 2025, according to ADB, while India’s growth estimates have been lowered to 6.5% this year and 7.0% next year due to weaker private investment.Southeast Asia’s outlook has been upgraded to 4.7% for 2024, driven by strong manufacturing exports and public capital spending.The bank highlights risks from U.S. trade, fiscal, and immigration policies, which could weaken global economic growth by 0.5 percentage points over four years under a high-risk scenario. Broad-based tariffs, reduced immigration, and expansionary fiscal measures could disrupt global trade and rekindle inflation in the U.S., though the impacts on Asia-Pacific are expected to remain limited.The bank cautions that additional risks, including geopolitical tensions and China’s property market fragility, could cloud the region’s outlook. More