Aurelia Butler

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ORLANDO, Florida (Reuters) -An extraordinary year for investors is poised to end with a monetary policy bang, with almost every G10 central bank scheduled to deliver interest rate decisions over a 10-day period this month.    Four of the G10 central banks meet this week and five, including the Federal Reserve, meet next week. Remarkably, four of those – Bank of Japan, Bank of England, Riksbank and Norges Bank – will deliver their policy verdicts on the same day, Thursday December 19.    The sweep of decisions and guidance will be felt most acutely in FX markets, where implied volatility across G10 currencies is already at the highest pitch since April last year.    Importantly, most of these currencies will be going into these meetings on the back foot. Sterling is the only one that has held its own against the dollar this year, and, even then, only barely. All other G10 currencies are between 4% and 9% weaker against the greenback in 2024.    It’s easy to see why implied FX ‘vol’ is so elevated going into the end of the year. Uncertainty over U.S. trade policy following Donald Trump’s election victory, rising geopolitical tensions, and the ebb and flow of monetary policy expectations are all playing their part.On that note, in addition to the nine G10 central banks cited above, monetary policymakers in Brazil, Indonesia, Thailand and Colombia also meet within this 10-day period, just as market liquidity will be thinning out for seasonal reasons.    It’s a different story for stock and bonds, at least in the United States. The VIX, Wall Street’s so-called ‘fear index’, and the ‘MOVE’ index of implied volatility in Treasuries are the lowest they’ve been in months. The latter is notable given how much Treasuries have moved since the U.S. presidential election on November 5 and the potential policy changes that could accompany Trump’s return to the Oval Office in January.LONG VOLWall Street analysts are warning that the second Trump administration’s agenda could cause FX volatility to outlast the holiday season.    In their 2025 outlook, currency analysts at JP Morgan advise clients that “elevated” U.S. policy uncertainty makes a strategic short vol stance “untenable.”    “2025 will not be a year for the faint-hearted to be short vol,” they wrote on Nov. 28, citing President-elect Trump’s hardline stance on trade and his threats to slap massive tariffs on some of America’s key trading partners.    Karen Reichgott Fishman at Goldman Sachs last week echoed these statements, noting, “this makes it a good time to assess the value of hedging any exchange rate exposure in global portfolios”.     But before Trump is sworn in, currency traders will have to navigate the looming tsunami of rate decisions this month. Mark your calendars for a bumpy year end.    Dec. 10 Reserve Bank of Australia: Markets are pricing in a 90% probability that the cash rate will be held at 4.35%, with around 70 basis points of easing expected by the end of next year. The RBA hasn’t yet started its easing cycle.    Dec. 11    Bank of Canada: Markets are pricing in a quarter point cut and a 75% probability of a half point move, with around 115 bps of cuts over the next year. The BOC has already cut its Bank Rate by 125 bps in this cycle, the most among all G10 central banks.Dec. 12European Central Bank: Markets are pricing in a quarter point cut, with around 150 bps of easing expected over the next 12 months.    Swiss National Bank: Markets are pricing in a quarter point rate cut and a 65% chance of a half point reduction. Traders are expecting around 85 bps of easing over the next 12 months. SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan recently floated the idea that the SNB could return to negative interest rates, if necessary.Dec. 18    Federal Reserve: Markets are pricing in a 90% probability of a quarter point cut, with around 80 bps of easing expected by the end of next year.Dec. 19    Bank of Japan: Traders expect the key policy rate to be raised by 10 bps, and around 45 bps of tightening anticipated over the next 12 months.    Norges Bank: Markets are pricing in a 20% chance of a quarter point cut, with around 120 bps of easing expected over the next year.     Riksbank: Markets are pricing in a 70% likelihood of a quarter point cut, with around 100 bps of rate cuts expected by the end of next year.    Bank of England: No rate change anticipated at this meeting, but markets are pricing in around 75 bps of easing over the next 12 months.     (The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.) More

(Reuters) – A look at the day ahead in Asian markets. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s interest rate decision takes center stage on Tuesday, while debate intensifies over the likely success – or otherwise – of China’s surprise announcement that it plans to implement looser monetary and fiscal policy.The RBA is widely expected to keep its cash rate unchanged at 4.35%, so the focus will be on when Governor Michele Bullock signals the easing cycle might start.Economists polled by Reuters reckon it will be some time in the second quarter, and Aussie money markets are pointing to a quarter point cut on April 1.Sentiment across Asia may be dented by Wall Street’s slide on Monday, but investors continue to digest the first shift in China’s broad policy stance since 2010.The Politburo’s recommendation that a “more proactive” fiscal policy and “moderately loose” monetary policy be followed may not be on the same scale as Mario Draghi’s famous “whatever it takes” pledge to save the euro in 2012. But it could still be hugely significant in China’s battle to emerge from the property bust, deflation and sub-par growth.China bulls argue that, following the blitz of fiscal and market-supporting liquidity measures earlier this year, Beijing’s commitment to get the economy back on track can no longer be questioned. Although it will take time for policies to take effect, the dial has definitely shifted, so investors would do well to get in and buy Chinese equities now. Those of a more cautious persuasion will say actions speak louder than words, and point out that Beijing has promised much in recent years but always under-delivered. Unless Beijing assumes the banking sector’s bad loans and bails out the banks, nothing will materially change.Chinese stocks are still considerably higher than they were before the first stimulus and market support measures were announced in September, and billionaire hedge fund manager David Tepper’s subsequent “buy everything” call on China. China’s economic surprises index has bounced back too.But economists remain skeptical over the 2025 growth outlook and Chinese bond yields are sinking – the 10-year yield is below 2% for the first time on record, and the 30-year yield is below the Japanese equivalent for the first time in around 20 years. Hardly the signs of recovery.In addition, any optimism may be tempered by the latest inflation figures which suggest Beijing’s efforts to revive economic activity and demand are having a limited impact so far.Sino-US trade tensions are bubbling up again too. China said on Monday it has launched an investigation into Nvidia Corp (NASDAQ:NVDA) over suspected violations of the country’s anti-monopoly law. The move is widely seen as a retaliatory shot against Washington’s latest curbs on the Chinese chip sector. Here are key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Tuesday:- Australia’s interest rate decision- China trade (November)- Taiwan’s TSMC monthly sales announcement More

Shares of the Houston, Texas-based company were up 1.7% after the market close. Pipeline operators such as Kinder Morgan (NYSE:KMI) are also banking on electric generation associated with artificial intelligence operations, cryptocurrency mining and data centers.Net income attributable to the company is expected to be $1.27 per share in 2025, in line with analysts’ average estimate, according to data compiled by LSEG.Kinder Morgan had forecast a profit of $1.17 per share for end-2024.The company’s third-quarter profit fell short of Wall Street estimates earlier this year. It had also lowered its annual profit forecast as the U.S. pipeline operator contended with lower crude volumes.However, the company now expects to generate $8.3 billion of adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) in 2025, up nearly 4% from the 2024 forecast of $8 billion.Kinder Morgan, one of the largest energy infrastructure companies in North America, operates about 79,000 miles of pipelines.A lower net debt-to-adjusted EBITDA ratio would provide the company with good capacity for “additional opportunistic investment,” said CEO Kim Dang in the statement. Kinder Morgan added it expects to invest $2.3 billion in discretionary capital expenditures, including expansion projects and contributions to joint ventures. More

The company now expects revenue to be between $378 million and $398 million, from its previous forecast of $370 million to $395 million. Shares of the company rose 14.8% in extended trading. The Redwood (NYSE:RWT), California-based company provides software for enterprises to build and develop AI applications for various industries, including energy, manufacturing, financial services and healthcare. The company’s shares have risen over 45% so far this year, in part due to its expanded partnership with cloud heavyweight Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), under which C3.ai (NYSE:AI) will become the “preferred” AI application software provider on Microsoft’s Azure cloud. C3.ai reported $94.3 million in second-quarter revenue, a 29% increase from last year and above analysts’ estimate of $91 million, according to data compiled by LSEG. On an adjusted basis, the company reported a loss of 6 cents, whereas analysts were expecting a loss of 16 cents. More

WHY IT MATTERSUnlike other U.S. financial regulators, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau is continuing its rulemaking activities in the final weeks of President Joe Biden’s administration, as Reuters reported recently. This could invite reversals after President-elect Donald Trump takes office next year or the rules’ populist appeal could meet with bipartisan agreement. Nearly three quarters of domestic violence survivors say they stayed longer in abusive relationships due to coerced debt, according to the CFPB.KEY QUOTE”People trapped by domestic abuse must often sign documents under the threat of violence, ruining their financial lives and making it even more difficult to escape,” CFPB Director Rohit Chopra said in a statement. “Expanding identity theft protections could help survivors rebuild their financial lives and would ensure that our credit reporting system is not used as a tool for domestic and elder abuse.”WHAT’S NEXTThe advanced notice of a proposed rulemaking is subject to public comment, a step before the agency can formally issue a proposal. More

NEW YORK (Reuters) -Brian Thompson, the CEO of UnitedHealth’s insurance unit, was fatally shot in midtown Manhattan last week in what police described as a targeted attack by a masked assailant lying in wait just before the parent company’s annual investor conference at a Hilton Hotel.Authorities arrested Luigi Mangione, 26, in Altoona, Pennsylvania, in connection with the shooting on Monday. Mangione was found with a “ghost gun” – a firearm assembled from parts, making it untraceable – and a silencer consistent with the weapon used to shoot Thompson, New York City Police Commissioner Jessica Tisch said. Thompson, 50, had been with the company for 20 years and was CEO of UnitedHealthcare, the large insurance unit of UnitedHealth Group (NYSE:UNH), since April 2021. The following is what you need to know about UnitedHealthcare:WHAT IS UNITEDHEALTHCARE’S BUSINESS? UnitedHealthcare is the largest U.S. health insurer, providing benefits to more than 50 million Americans. The company provides benefit plans that pay for much of routine healthcare as well as care for customers who fall ill or get injured. The unit had $281.4 billion in revenue in 2023, nearly double that of the next largest U.S. health insurer. Americans routinely pay more for healthcare than people in any other country.HOW DOES IT FIT INTO UNITEDHEALTH GROUP?UnitedHealth Group is a $560 billion health conglomerate that consists of two main subsidiaries. In addition to the insurance business that was led by Thompson, there is Optum, which includes a pharmacy benefits manager, specialty pharmacy, data analytics and doctor and surgical practices.It also includes technology company Change, which was the target of a cyber attack this year that impacted thousands of providers and millions of healthcare customers.The whole company brought in $371.6 billion in revenue last year and had over 440,000 employees at the end of 2023. Sir Andrew Witty became CEO of UnitedHealth Group in 2021 after having run Optum. He was previously CEO of Britain-based pharmaceutical company GSK from 2008 to 2017.   HOW MANY PEOPLE DOES UNITEDHEALTHCARE COVER AND WHERE?The company provided health insurance for more than 50.6 million at the end of the third quarter, including 49.3 million people across the United States. Nearly 30 million are enrolled in employer-based or other commercial insurance, 15.3 million in government-backed Medicare plans primarily for those age 65 and older under Medicare Advantage programs, and 4.3 million in Medicaid plans for low-income people. The company’s global business provides benefits to customers in over 150 other countries, according to its annual report.Under Thompson, UnitedHealthcare grew the number of people it covers domestically, which rose from around 44 million people when he took over as CEO in April 2021. HOW PROFITABLE IS IT?In 2023, the insurance business earned $16.4 billion, up nearly a third from 2020, the year before Thompson took over as CEO. More

Colombia’s government presented its latest fiscal reform to Congress in September, which it hopes will finance spending in 2025 by increasing taxes and taking on more debt. “I believe, to be completely frank and sincere, that today it’s not viable to consider a financing law that raises the 12 trillion needed for the budget, but it’s possible to advance in several points of the reform that give a lower figure,” Cristo told journalists in Bogota.At the end of November, the government said it would cut spending this year by 28.4 trillion pesos, citing lower-than-expected tax revenues.The Autonomous Fiscal Rule Committee last month said the 2024 budget needed a 56.2 trillion peso cut to comply with the so-called fiscal rule, which was created in 2011 to implement policy constraints that prevent the deterioration of public finances. ($1 = 4,396.52 Colombian pesos) More