Aurelia Butler

(Reuters) – A look at the day ahead in Asian markets. A sea of red across most equity markets and no end in sight to the rise in the dollar and U.S. bond yields is the backdrop to what is likely to be another nervy session in Asia on Tuesday. As if that wasn’t reason enough for investors to keep their guard up, U.S. CPI inflation data will be released the following day, when the fourth quarter U.S. earnings season kicks off too. The S&P 500’s fall on Monday at one point wiped out all the index’s post-U.S. election gains. Although it managed to close off those lows, there is no doubt that high and rising U.S. bond yields continue to weigh heavily on wider equity market sentiment. The global backdrop isn’t helping either, amid swirling trade tensions and uncertainty surrounding the new incoming U.S. administration ahead of Donald Trump’s inauguration next week.On that front, the Biden administration’s announcement on Monday of new U.S. export restrictions on artificial intelligence chips will only deepen the unease. The new regulations, among the toughest yet from Washington and designed to limit the global distribution of these coveted processors, could deal a significant blow to the earnings of AI and tech firms, including Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA). The dollar on Monday rose to a fresh 26-month high, a further tightening of financial conditions that will be felt in domestic U.S. markets but especially in overseas asset prices.Analysts at Goldman Sachs on Friday raised their dollar forecasts to include the euro falling below parity with the dollar within the next three to six months. With the euro slipping below $1.02 on Monday it wouldn’t be a shock if the parity break comes in the next six weeks. The dollar has started the week on a strong footing. It has risen 14 out of the last 15 weeks, a remarkable run that has seen it appreciate 10% against its major G10 rivals. Emerging and Asian economies continue to feel the squeeze from dollar and Treasury yields. Tuesday’s calendar in Asia is light, with Australian consumer confidence, Indian factory gate inflation figures and the latest Japanese trade and current account numbers the main events. Japan’s yen remains under heavy selling pressure around 158 per dollar, close to the 160/dollar area that has previously prompted yen-buying intervention from Japanese authorities. Policy decisions in Indonesia and South Korea, and a raft of Chinese economic indicators, should be the local catalysts for more market fireworks later in the week.The annual Asian Financial Forum in Hong Kong continues. Speakers on Tuesday include the chairman of Alibaba (NYSE:BABA), the managing director of China International Capital Corporation Limited, and CIOs at several major global investment funds.Here are key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Tuesday:- Japan trade, current account (November)- India wholesale price inflation (December)- Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Himino Ryozo speaks More

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WASHINGTON (Reuters) -Top Republicans in the U.S. Congress are considering imposing conditions on disaster aid to Los Angeles communities devastated by wildfires, after President-elect Donald Trump claimed that state and local officials had mishandled the situation. House of Representatives Speaker Mike Johnson told reporters on Monday that leading officials in the Democratic-led state mismanaged water resources and forests in the Los Angeles area before six simultaneous blazes tore across the second-largest U.S. city, claiming the lives of at least 24 people.    “It appears to us that state and local leaders were derelict in their duty in many respects. So that’s something that has to be factored in,” Johnson told reporters in the U.S. Capitol. “There should probably be conditions on that aid. That’s my personal view. We’ll see what the consensus is,” he said.House Republicans have not yet discussed disaster aid to sections of California stricken by fire, Johnson said. The lawmakers were due to meet behind closed doors early on Tuesday.With Trump due to take office in less than a week, Republican control of both the House and Senate gives the party full control over spending, including the form and volume of disaster relief.  The president-elect took aim at the largely Democratic leaders of California and Los Angeles as “incompetent pols” over the weekend in a social media post about the wildfires that claimed “they have no idea out to put them out.”  No. 2 Senate Republican John Barrasso on Sunday told CBS’ “Face the Nation” that he expected to see “strings attached to money that is ultimately approved, and it has to do with being ready the next time, because this was a gross failure this time.”Johnson said House Republicans are also discussing the possibility of tying California aid to efforts to raise the limit on more than $36 trillion in U.S. debt. One hurdle facing disaster aid in Congress is an energized hardline conservative bloc that seeks offsets for any new spending.Last month, the Republican-controlled House and a Democratic-led Senate approved more than $100 billion in new emergency funding to help states including North Carolina and Florida recover from devastating hurricanes.Though many of the aid recipients live in Republican areas, some party members in both chambers pressed unsuccessfully to limit the aid as little as $40 billion.While California is heavily Democratic, with the party holding both the governorship and two U.S. Senate seats, it was the site of several closely contested U.S. House, where Democrats succeeded in holding onto closely-fought seats. The state could play a critical role in determining House control once more in the 2026 midterm elections. More

“Recent history tells us a ‘no landing’ isn’t necessarily the worst outcome for risk assets. After all, it’s only a problem because the data is strong, as seen with last week’s jobs report,” Deutsche Bank Macro (BCBA:BMAm) Strategist Henry Allen said in a note.Nonfarm payrolls increased by 256,000 jobs last month after rising by an downwardly revised 212,000 in November, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics said. Economists had forecast an uptick of 164,000 roles. While the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, below November’s pace of 4.2%.Risk assets including stocks tumbled as global yields moved to new highs across the board last week, with the US 10-year Treasury yield reaching its highest level since October 2023. The leg up in global bond yields come as investors are rapidly dialing back expectations for rate cuts, with futures now pricing in just one 25 basis point rate cut from the Fed this year.The recent bond selloff was primarily driven by inflationary data, Allen says, particularly the ISM services index and the stronger-than-expected US jobs report. The strategist noted that these data points added to concerns about robust demand and stronger inflationary pressures, leading markets to price in higher rates for longer.”Ultimately, investors are waking up to the fact that inflationary pressures are still building, and that’s likely to lead to more hawkish monetary policy as a result,” the strategist added.Deutsche Bank, however, suggests that a “no landing” scenario of sticky inflation above target alongside strong growth isn’t the death knell for risk assets. During 2023-24, equities saw a “relentless rally,” Allen added, even as markets priced in a more hawkish path for rates.If the risk of recession starts to raise significantly, markets would not be looking at this “through a positive lens, as the experience of every recent cycle demonstrates,” Allen said. More

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