Aurelia Butler

MEXICO CITY (Reuters) – In late November, U.S. President-elect Donald Trump sent shockwaves through global trade by threatening 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada, effectively ripping up a regional trade agreement, if the two countries didn’t do more to curb migration and the flow of drugs. It was a big test for Mexico’s new President Claudia Sheinbaum, the country’s first female leader who had taken office just eight weeks earlier. Analysts thought the scientist-turned-politician might be too rigid and reserved to navigate the volatile U.S. leader with the relative aplomb of her predecessor Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador. Now, as Trump prepares to take office, Sheinbaum has publicly sparred with the incoming U.S. president, but also shown concrete results that could help show Mexico is serious about cooperating on migration, security and China.It is hard to know if that will be enough, or if the threat of tariffs on Trump’s first day in power is wholly realistic, but experts and former diplomats say Sheinbaum has made a solid start. “It’s a very pragmatic and proactive approach by Sheinbaum and her team,” said Gema Kloppe-Santamaria, a global fellow of the Wilson Center’s Mexico Institute. Trump has repeatedly accused the Mexican government of not doing enough to stop migrants and drugs from entering the U.S. and has threatened sweeping tariffs to force more action. He has also railed against Chinese plants setting up shop in Mexico.But since taking office, Sheinbaum has intensified an already historic crackdown against migrants traveling toward the U.S. border by detaining an unprecedented 475,000 migrants between October and December and has left open the possibility that Mexico might be willing to accept non-Mexicans deported from the United States.Her government has also seized a record 1,100 kilograms of illicit fentanyl, and unveiled new tariffs against some Asian goods and confiscated counterfeit Chinese products in several Mexican cities.”She’s sending this message that she is a strong political leader,” said Kloppe-Santamaria, pointing to recent polling that shows Sheinbaum has increased her popularity to a staggering 80% approval rating after her first 100 days in office. “Trump without a doubt comes with a lot of power and legitimacy, but she does as well,” Kloppe-Santamaria added.Reuters spoke to seven economic analysts, former Mexican diplomats, and academic experts in Mexican politics. Most praised Sheinbaum’s strategy for engaging with Trump.”This commitment that Mexico has shown to fully align its interests with those of the U.S. is what makes us more confident that President Claudia Sheinbaum and President-elect Donald Trump will pull through the initial threats and uncertainty,” said Rodolfo Ramos, an analyst at Banco Bradesco.MEXICO HAS MUCH TO LOSEThe incoming U.S. leader is known for being unpredictable, but Sheinbaum has also maintained an element of surprise, said Jorge Guajardo, a former Mexican ambassador to China. While she’s suggested Mexico could retaliate with its own tariffs, she’s refrained from tipping her hand.”She’s been very smart and strategic,” he said. “She wants to keep her powder dry.”Mexico is one of the countries with the most to lose in a second Trump presidency, said former Mexican ambassador to the United States Arturo Sarukhan.The U.S. is far and away Mexico’s largest trading partner, and the Republican leader’s threatened tariffs could send shockwaves through Mexico’s economy. He has also vowed mass deportations that could strain Mexico’s job market and spark humanitarian and security challenges in a country already grappling with violence, internal displacement, and sluggish economic growth. Then there’s Trump’s threats of unilateral U.S. military action against drug cartels inside Mexico, which “is basically an act of war,” Sarukhan said.Sarukhan warned that U.S.-Mexico relations could be more volatile than in decades and that Mexico City needed to be prepared for Trump’s second administration to be even more difficult for Mexico than the first.But Sheinbaum appears to have a well-prepared playbook. The steps her government has taken might be sufficient, for now.”I think these measures are enough to establish a floor for the negotiations and keep Trump from imposing tariffs on day one,” said Matias Gomez, an analyst at consulting firm Eurasia Group.”However, this threat will act as a sword of Damocles throughout 2025 as a latent risk that will allow Trump to pressure Sheinbaum on multiple fronts.” More

Per Bloomberg, the sale could occur through a government-led arrangement or a competitive process, indicating that ByteDance may no longer have full control over the app’s future in the US.“In a contingency plan this is likely one of many options that ByteDance is exploring with the Supreme Court case awaiting final judgment and the January 19th TikTok ban or divest deadline looming,” Wedbush analysts led by Daniel Ives commented.“Given the strong and growing alliance between Trump and Musk this is not a total shock route as behind the scenes the Trump White House is looking at alternatives if the Supreme Court upholds the ban.”Moreover, Beijing and Xi Jinping share a strong rapport with Elon Musk, which could provide additional assurance in this potential deal or partnership as a means to prevent a TikTok ban, analysts added.If ByteDance were to sell TikTok’s US operations, Wedbush’s team believes the deal would likely exclude the algorithm, which ByteDance views as its core asset. Analysts estimate the sale price could range between $40 billion and $50 billion.Such a move would significantly boost the value of the Twitter/X platform, and Elon Musk might seek external investments to secure this valuable acquisition. Analysts also point out the possibility of a joint partnership rather than a full sale, with Musk playing a key role, potentially preventing a complete ban of TikTok in the US.“There is much more at stake here than just TikTok’s fate….as the US/China high tension relationships are clearly at play heading into a very important tariff discussion/negotiations for the Trump Administration in the months ahead,” analysts continued.The US Justice Department has labeled TikTok a “national security threat” due to its Chinese parent ByteDance’s potential access to US user data.In April 2024, Congress passed a bill requiring ByteDance to secure a US-approved buyer within nine months or face a nationwide ban. This deadline coincides with President Trump’s inauguration on January 20, 2025.While Trump opposes the ban and has called on the Supreme Court to delay it, he may direct the Justice Department not to enforce the law, avoiding fines for tech companies like Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) and Google (NASDAQ:GOOGL). The president-elect met with TikTok CEO Shou Zi Chew last month.Wedbush analysts argue that ByteDance “will never sell” TikTok with its algorithm, significantly reducing the platform’s value in any sale, whether to Elon Musk or another buyer. More

BEIJING (Reuters) – The annual travel rush for China’s Lunar New Year celebrations officially began on Tuesday, with many taking a mental break from their worries about the future to reunite with family or take a holiday. The peak travel season in the world’s second-largest economy kicked off with a train departing from Beijing minutes after midnight, taking early bird travellers from the capital to Hefei in eastern Anhui province. Most people aim to be with family for the traditional reunion dinner on the eve of the New Year, which falls on Jan. 29 this year.The 40-day travel season will continue until Feb. 22, during which authorities estimate a record 9 billion domestic trips will be made. The forecast matches 2024’s estimate, although only 8.4 billion trips were actually made during last year’s festivities.Railway passenger volume is expected to exceed 510 million passengers, while more than 90 million passengers are expected to fly. However, the number of journeys by private vehicle is expected to reach 7.2 billion trips, or about 80% of the total domestic passenger flow, national television broadcaster CCTV said. Most of China’s 1.4 billion population will be celebrating this year’s Lunar New Year, also known as the Spring Festival, at a time when the economy is struggling to sustain a durable recovery hamstrung by weak domestic demand and a prolonged property market crisis.Some travellers said they would not allow the state of the economy to take the shine off the upcoming celebrations.”Although the economy has slowed down, I think the country as a whole is taking into consideration (the economic situation) and us, as ordinary people, are living well (day to day),” said Wang Zhixu, a 55-year-old who works in property management services, and was at the station in Beijing.”Peace within our country brings us the most happiness.”Air passengers who purchased multiple destination tickets for the festive period rose 50% compared to last year, and hotel bookings in some counties have increased, CCTV said.Beijing, Guangzhou, Harbin, Dali and Fuzhou were popular destinations for holidaymakers making the most of the eight-day public holiday.But for young people looking for work, the outlook is different.Shi Zhenyue, 22, en route to Harbin for a holiday with friends before travelling on to Wuxi in eastern Jiangsu province to celebrate the New Year with family, hoped for an improvement in the economy so she could join the workforce.”If the economy does get better (in the new year), I will have a better chance of finding a job, and I won’t have to go back to study for a master’s or doctoral degree. And if the economy improves, my father’s bonus (from work) won’t be halved. Everything else is fine,” Shi said.Youth unemployment hit 18.8% last August, the highest since the authorities changed the way they calculated the figures in December 2023. Although joblessness data has shown some improvement in recent months, millions of college graduates have been pushed into accepting low-paying work or even subsisting on their parents’ pensions.Many have also abandoned the stresses of big cities for a simpler life away from the hustle.For 33-year-old He who lives in northeastern Liaoning province with her fiance, the slower pace of life is a comfort.”Because we are not in a very big city like everyone else, we may not have too much pressure,” said the small business owner who only gave her surname.”We had also stayed in the big city for a period of time after graduation, and then we chose to go back to our home town where we feel is friendlier, and also happier,” she said. More

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$99 for your first yearFT newspaper delivered Monday-Saturday, plus FT Digital Edition delivered to your device Monday-Saturday.What’s included Weekday Print EditionFT WeekendFT Digital EditionGlobal news & analysisExpert opinionSpecial featuresExclusive FT analysis More