Aurelia Butler

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$75 per monthComplete digital access to quality FT journalism with expert analysis from industry leaders. Pay a year upfront and save 20%.What’s included Global news & analysisExpert opinionFT App on Android & iOSFT Edit appFirstFT: the day’s biggest stories20+ curated newslettersFollow topics & set alerts with myFTFT Videos & Podcasts20 monthly gift articles to shareLex: FT’s flagship investment column15+ Premium newsletters by leading expertsFT Digital Edition: our digitised print edition More

There are two major reasons why Trump’s policies are harder than those of the previous administrations to predict. One, Trump’s personality is unpredictable. And two, many of his appointees come from outside the establishment and, therefore, do not have track records upon which we can easily extrapolate. But that does not mean that all forecasting is in vain. On the campaign trail, the President-elect made a slew of promises. Whether it was imposing 10% tariffs on the world and 60% tariffs on Chinese imports (Reuters), scaling back climate regulations and ramping up fossil fuel production, or slashing tax on corporations (BBC), he made bold pledges that will profoundly impact geopolitical dynamics and global markets.Yet, as we saw in his first term, Trump is not always able to carry out his threats. It is not at all clear, for example, that he will withdraw the United States from NATO (Atlantic Council) or impose permanently higher tariffs through legislation (USA Today). Trump’s willingness and ability to carry out these policies will profoundly impact markets and the global economy. While nobody has a crystal ball, investors will increasingly rely on research providers who can help see around corners, plan for various scenarios, and handicap potential outcomes. The demand for research is likely to increase.I believe the demand for research will increase across all major asset classes. First, Trump’s stances on trade, immigration, and foreign policy increase both positive and negative tail risks. Second, with thin majorities in both houses of Congress, some of his initiatives – most notably tax reform – will result in long-term or structural change.Company-focused equity research is likely to thrive as Trump’s ideologically aligned cabinet takes strong positions that affect multiple sectors. Investors will want to better understand the precise impact of deregulation, which is generally good for corporate earnings, especially for energy and banks. But loosening regulations could produce a negative or unpredictable effect in other sectors, such as in healthcare. Meanwhile, a cooling labor market could slow overall growth and produce headwinds.Given trade tariffs and Elon Musk’s attempts to cut red tape, Trump’s second term could help small companies relative to the large caps that have dominated the bull market. We’ve seen stock indexes spike already, with the S&P 500 hitting an all-time high (CNBC) and the small-cap Russell 2000 reaching a record peak following the appointment of Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary (Reuters). But investors need research to find out whether corporate earnings can deliver and keep up the optimism.Foreign policy may work at odds with domestic policy. In the energy sector, deregulation is a boon, but Trump has also threatened to repeal the Inflation Reduction Act, especially the renewable energy subsidies (Utility Dive). An earlier ceasefire in Ukraine could reduceEuropean imports of US natural gas, while enforcement of oil sanctions against Iran could lead to unplanned oil disruptions across the Middle East. The business cycle and the bond market will be critical. Too many tax cuts could cause the budget deficit to surge and lead to higher inflation. Too many spending cuts could hit the brakes on the economy. Investors will need to follow the tax bill negotiations closely.There will be a general boost for banks and brokerages offering research as clients grapple with the policy process in the White House, Congress, and abroad. But demand for independent research providers will rise even higher. First, investors will look for unbiased research from parties without conflicts of interest. Independent research providers are not influenced by an investment we have an interest in supporting. Yet we do have “skin in the game” in the sense that our research is accountable to investors and the markets.The Trump win will also push investors to seek tailored insights specific to different asset classes and regions. Independent (LON:IOG) research firms are nimble – I’ve seen it at BCA. We can roll out new products if we see client demand in an area surge, like we did in 2023 with our Private Markets & Alternatives product, which provides a framework for investors in private equity, credit, and other private markets.The trade war is the biggest driver of uncertainty because Trump can impose broad tariffs unilaterally, yet global manufacturing economies are already weak. Trump recently pledged to introduce 25% tariffs on all goods coming into the US from Mexico and Canada, plus an additional 10% on Chinese imports on Day One, January 20 (Sky News).Half of US crude oil imports come from Canada (Financial Times), and a considerable chunk of US manufacturing imports come from Mexico, including vehicles, agricultural products, and electrical equipment (The Washington Post). But the trade wars with China and Europe could hit even harder since these economies are larger and less dependent on the United States.Will Trump negotiate a “Phase Two” trade deal with China to avoid disruptive global economic decoupling? Will he settle for trade partners increasing short-term purchases, or will he demand long-term structural adjustments that are harder to deliver? Can the US negotiate an international intervention into currency markets? These and other questions require constant monitoring, research, and analysis and a robust theoretical framework. For most investors, too much is at stake to leave to guesswork. More

PARIS (Reuters) -French lawmakers are all but certain to oust the government with a no-confidence motion on Wednesday, plunging the euro zone’s second-biggest economic power deeper into political turmoil.Barring a last-minute surprise, Prime Minister Michel Barnier’s government will be France’s first to be forced out by a no-confidence vote in more than 60 years, at a time when the country is struggling to tame a massive budget deficit.That would leave a hole at the heart of the European Union at a time when Germany is also weakened and in election mode, weeks before U.S. President-elect Donald Trump re-enters the White House. In a TV interview on Tuesday, Barnier said he still believed his government could survive the vote, scheduled for the evening after a debate starting at 4 p.m. (1500 GMT).But far-right National Rally (RN) chief Jordan Bardella confirmed on Wednesday that his party would vote to topple Barnier alongside left-wing parties. He said Barnier’s optimism showed that the government was “completely out of touch with what is happening in the country”. “This government is dangerous for my country,” he told France Inter radio. “We will vote for the no-confidence motion.”Barnier’s interior minister, Bruno Retailleau, was downbeat.”Nothing’s over until the vote but we can see we’re headed towards censure (of the government),” he told CNews.President Emmanuel Macron, who won a second mandate in 2022, precipitated the crisis by calling a snap parliamentary election in June.His term as president runs until mid-2027 and he cannot be forced out by parliament, but the RN and the hard left have already been saying he should resign as he faces his biggest crisis since the Yellow (OTC:YELLQ) Vest popular unrest of 2018-2019.Since Macron called the election, France’s CAC 40 has dropped nearly 10% and is the heaviest loser among top EU economies. The single currency is down nearly 4%.NO-CONFIDENCE VOTE PUTS BID TO CUT BUDGET DEFICIT AT RISKPolitical uncertainty is already hitting France’s services sector, a monthly survey showed.”The positive signals … that were seen over the summer, partly due to the Olympics, are now a thing of the past,” Hamburg Commercial Bank economist Tariq Kamal Chaudhry said after seeing the HCOB purchasing managers’ index for France’s service sector.Barnier’s draft budget had sought to cut the fiscal deficit, which is projected to exceed 6% of national output this year, with 60 billion euros ($63 billion) in tax hikes and spending cuts. It sought to drag the deficit down to 5% next year.The caretaker government could propose emergency legislation to roll over spending limits and tax provisions from this year. But that would mean Barnier’s savings measures falling by the wayside.Barnier says the consequences of voting him out will be catastrophic for state finances, but RN lawmaker Laure Lavalette told TF1 TV: “There is no reason for this to lead to major chaos. Don’t play with fears … it’s not all going to crumble.” Bond investors are likely to spare France the dire financial “storm” Barnier has warned of, but the fallout from the political crisis will hurt businesses, consumers and taxpayers, economists and experts say.”This is a slow-burning crisis which will lead to an ongoing widening of spreads and an ongoing deterioration of sovereign creditworthiness,” said Union Investment’s head of fixed income and FX, Christian Kopf, who is underweight on French debt.”But for the time being, I do not see the ingredients for this to totally get out of hand and morph into an outright sovereign debt crisis.”If the no-confidence vote passes, Macron may well ask Barnier to stay on in a caretaker role as it could take until next year to find a new prime minister. More

Here are Northvolt’s creditors listed in its Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing and outstanding principal amounts:NORTHVOLT AB UNSECURED DEBT FACILITIES Total (EPA:TTEF) Northvolt AB Debt: $3.9 billion* Volta Convertible Instrument: due Aug. 17, 2027; $2.76 billion* KfW Convertible Instrument: due June 30, 2028; $670 million * VW Convertible Instrument: due Dec. 31, 2025; $330 million * Shareholder Bridge Facility: due Aug. 14, 2025; $154 million SECURED DEBT FACILITIES FOR NORTHVOLT ETT, ITS ONLY OPERATING BATTERY FACTORY IN NORTHERN SWEDENTotal Northvolt Ett Debt: $1.74 billion* Euler Hermes Covered Term Loan: due Dec. 31, 2029; $470 million* Northvolt Ett Second Lien: due June 30, 2030; $405 million * EIB Term Loan: due Dec. 31, 2029; $313 million * NEXI Covered Term Loan: due Dec. 31, 2029; $131 million * Revolving WC Facility: due Dec. 31, 2029; $110 million * KEXIM Term Loan: due Dec. 31, 2029; $87 million * Northvolt Ett Inventory Financing: due Jan. 24, 2025; $72 million* BPIAE Covered Term Loan: due Dec. 31, 2029; $67 million * Commercial Uncovered Term Loan: due Dec. 31, 2029; $45 million * Northvolt Ett Second Inventory Financing: due March 18, 2025; $42 millionCANADIAN SECURE DEBT FACILITY * Northvolt Canada Land Loan: due Oct. 31, 2038; $181 millionUNSECURED CREDITORSNorthvolt’s unsecured creditors include its largest shareholders Goldman Sachs and Volkswagen (ETR:VOWG_p), whose brands Scania, Porsche and Audi are customers of the battery maker. Volta, a company which tests battery systems, is its largest creditor.* Volta: $3.85 billion* KFW: $696.0 million* Volkswagen: $355.3 million* Nordic Trustee and Agency: $154.0 million* SFA Engineering: $30.2 million* BHP Billiton (NYSE:BBL) Marketing: $30.2 million* Axima Concept Sweden Filial: $21.5 million* Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment: $19.7 million* Easpring Technology (Changzhou) New Material: $16.9 million* Bravida Sverige: $10.0 million* Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT): $8.9 million* Jiangsu Easpring Material Technology: $7.1 million* LF: $6.3 million* Tianqi Lithium Kwinana: $6.1 million* Sodexo (EPA:EXHO): $5.9 million* Skellefteå Kraftaktiebolag: $5.5 million* BNP Paribas (OTC:BNPQY): $5.2 million* RJ And Collab: $5.0 million* Goldman Sachs Bank Europe: $4.8 million* Stena Recycling: $4.6 million* Senior Material (Europe): $4.5 million* Randstad (AS:RAND): $4.3 million* Kedali Sweden: $4.2 million* Hanwha Momentum: $4.1 million* Ventpartner I Västmanland: $4.1 million* Kataoka Corporation: $4.0 million* Axima Concept: $3.9 million* J.P Morgan: $3.7 million* CIS: $3.7 million* Vakanta: $3.5 million More

SEOUL (Reuters) -South Korean lawmakers submitted a bill on Wednesday to impeach President Yoon Suk Yeol after he declared martial law in the country, a major U.S. ally, before rescinding the decision hours later after a chaotic standoff between parliament and the army.Parliament rejected Yoon’s surprise declaration of martial law, which attempted to ban political activity and censor the media in Asia’s fourth largest economy, as armed troops forced their way into the National Assembly building in Seoul.Six South Korean opposition parties later submitted a bill in parliament to impeach Yoon, who had already faced accusations of heavy-handed leadership from his opponents and from within his own party, with voting set for Friday or Saturday. A plenary session to formally introduce the bill was scheduled to begin shortly after midnight (1500 GMT) on Wednesday.”We couldn’t ignore the illegal martial law,” DP lawmaker Kim Yong-min told reporters. “We can no longer let democracy collapse.”Civic and labour groups held a candlelight vigil in downtown Seoul on Wednesday evening, calling for Yoon’s resignation- a reminder of the massive candlelight protests that led to the impeachment of former President Park Geun-hye in 2017. They then began marching towards the presidential office.The leader of Yoon’s ruling People Power Party called for Defence Minister Kim Yong-hyun to be fired and the entire cabinet to resign. Kim has offered to resign, the defence ministry said.Yoon told the nation in a television speech late on Tuesday that martial law was needed to defend the country from pro-North Korean anti-state forces, and protect the free constitutional order, although he cited no specific threats.Troops tried to seize control of the parliament building, but stood back when parliamentary aides sprayed them with fire extinguishers, while protesters scuffled with police outside.Within hours of the declaration, South Korea’s parliament, with 190 of its 300 members present, unanimously passed a motion for martial law be lifted, with 18 members of Yoon’s party present. The president then rescinded the declaration of martial law, around six hours after its proclamation.Protesters outside the National Assembly shouted and clapped. “We won!” they chanted, and one demonstrator banged on a drum. “There are opinions that it was too much to go to emergency martial law, and that we did not follow the procedures for emergency martial law, but it was done strictly within the constitutional framework,” a South Korean presidential official told Reuters by telephone.There has been no reaction yet from North Korea to the drama in the South.Yoon was embraced by leaders in the West as a partner in the U.S.-led effort to unify democracies against growing authoritarianism in China, Russia and elsewhere.But he caused unease among South Koreans by branding his critics as “communist totalitarian and anti-state forces” as his approval ratings slipped. In November, he denied wrongdoing in response to influence-peddling allegations against him and his wife and he has taken a hard line against labour unions.MARKETS VOLATILESeoul appeared largely normal on Wednesday, with the usual rush hour traffic in trains and on the streets.But Hyundai Motor (OTC:HYMTF)’s labour union announced plans to stage strikes on Thursday and Friday and some major employers, including Naver Corp and LG Electronics Inc (KS:066570), advised employees to work from home.South Korean stocks fell about 1.3% while the won was stable but close to a two-year low with dealers reporting suspected intervention by South Korean authorities.Finance Minister Choi Sang-mok and Bank of Korea Governor Rhee Chang-yong held emergency meetings overnight and the finance ministry promised to prop up markets if needed.”We will inject unlimited liquidity into stocks, bonds, short-term money market as well as forex market for the time being until they are fully normalised,” a government statement said.Sales of canned goods, instant noodles and bottled water had soared overnight, said a major South Korean convenience store chain, which sought anonymity. “I’m deeply disturbed by this kind of situation, and I’m very concerned about the future of the country,” 39-year-old Seoul resident Kim Byeong-in told Reuters.    The National Assembly can impeach the president if more than two-thirds of lawmakers vote in favour. A trial by the constitutional court follows, which can confirm the motion with a vote by six of the nine justices.Yoon’s party has 108 seats in the 300-member legislature.’DODGED A BULLET’If Yoon resigned or was removed from office, Prime Minister Han Duck-soo would fill in as leader until a new election was held within 60 days.”South Korea as a nation dodged a bullet, but President Yoon may have shot himself in the foot,” Danny Russel, vice president of the Asia Society Policy Institute think tank in the United States, said of the first martial law declaration in South Korea since 1980.U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said he welcomed Yoon’s decision to rescind the martial law declaration.”We continue to expect political disagreements to be resolved peacefully and in accordance with the rule of law,” Blinken said in a statement.South Korea hosts about 28,500 American troops as a legacy of the 1950-1953 Korean War.Planned defence talks and a joint military exercise between the two allies were postponed amid the broader diplomatic fallout from the overnight turmoil.South Korea’s political situation is an “internal matter” for the country, China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi told reporters.Russia said it was following the “tragic” events in South Korea with concern.Yoon, a career prosecutor, squeezed out a victory in the tightest presidential election in South Korean history in 2022, riding a wave of discontent over economic policy, scandals and gender wars.But he has been unpopular, with his support ratings hovering at around 20% for months and the opposition captured nearly two-thirds of seats in parliament in an election in April.Martial law been declared more than a dozen times since South Korea was established as a republic in 1948. In 1980, a group of military officers forced then-President Choi Kyu-hah to proclaim martial law to crush calls for the restoration of democratic government. More