Aurelia Butler

Sales volumes dropped by 3.3% in the 12 months to November, the weakest reading since April when they fell 4.0%, and below an increase of 0.6% in the year to October, the British Retail Consortium said. Last month’s decline reflected the fact that this year’s data did not include Black Friday sales in late November, which will be reflected in the December numbers, though they were included in last year’s comparison.”While it was undoubtedly a bad start to the festive season, the poor spending figures were primarily down to the movement of Black Friday into the December figures this year,” Helen Dickinson, the BRC’s chief executive, said.”Even so, low consumer confidence and rising energy bills have clearly dented non-food spending.”The regulated price cap on household energy increased by 10% in October. The BRC said non-food sales fell 2.1% year-on-year in the three months to November, reflecting a decline in spending on winter clothing. Food sales increased by 2.4% in the same period. British consumers have also had to contend with high interest rates from the Bank of England in response to a jump in inflation during 2022. The BoE is expected to keep interest rates on hold at 4.75% later this month after cutting Bank Rate in August and November. Separate data from Barclays (LON:BARC) on Tuesday showed the biggest annual drop in essential spending in over five years, which contracted by 3.1% in November.Barclays said the fall was due to a slowdown in supermarket spending, which decreased 1.8%. In contrast, spending on non-essential items rose by 0.8%, driven mostly by a 22.8% increase in spending on cinema tickets including for Gladiator II, Paddington in Peru and Wicked movies. Overall, consumer spending on Barclay’s debit and credit cards fell by 0.5% in November, the first decline since July. “Understandably, a number of factors weighed on consumer spending in November, notably easing consumer confidence post-summer, and expectations that post-Budget, inflation and interest rates will stay higher in the coming months,” Jack Meaning, chief UK economist at Barclays, said. Barclays said retail and overall transactions on Black Friday increased 9.5% compared to Black Friday 2023, with overall transactions reaching the highest so far this year. More

(Reuters) – California’s Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom on Monday announced he is seeking up to $25 million in additional funding for legal fights with the incoming administration of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump.The announcement came on the first day of a special session of the California legislature dedicated to preparing the liberal state for the second term of conservative Trump. If approved by the legislature, the California Department of Justice and state agencies would get the extra funding for court battles in areas such as reproductive rights, environmental protection and immigration.“The new litigation fund will help safeguard critical funding for disaster relief, health care, and other vital services that millions of Californians depend on daily”, the governor wrote in the proposal. He added the state plans to “defend against unlawful federal actions that could jeopardize not only tangible resources and the state’s economy” as well as protection of reproductive health care and civil rights. The fights could also force the federal government to pay needed funding, Newsom said in a statement, citing successful legal skirmishes with the federal government during the first Trump administration.California Attorney General Rob Bonta, also a Democrat, said in a press conference, that his agency would staff up to be able to react quickly to Trump administration action with motions for restraining orders and injunctions.California spent $42 million to support litigation in Trump’s first term between 2017-2022. The state filed over 120 lawsuits challenging Trump Administration actions.The state assembly also has introduced bills geared toward protecting access to abortion medication and enforcing the Reproductive Privacy Act, Bonta said.Newsom’s office expects the special budget legislation to be signed into law before Trump’s inauguration on Jan. 20. (reporting by Judith Langowski; editing by Peter Henderson and David Gregorio) More

(Reuters) -The United States will send Ukraine $725 million of missiles, ammunition, anti-personnel mines and other weapons, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Monday, as President Joe Biden’s outgoing administration seeks to bolster Kyiv in its war with Russian invaders before leaving office in January. The assistance will include Stinger missiles, ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS), drones and land mines, among other items, Blinken said in a statement.Reuters reported last week that the Biden administration planned to provide the equipment, much of it anti-tank weapons, to ward off Russia’s attacking forces. Moscow’s troops have been capturing village after village in Ukraine’s east, part of a drive to seize the industrial Donbas region, while Russian airstrikes target a hobbled Ukrainian energy grid as winter sets in.”The United States and more than 50 nations stand united to ensure Ukraine has the capabilities it needs to defend itself against Russian aggression,” Blinken’s statement said.The announcement marks a steep uptick in size from Biden’s recent use of so-called Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA), which allows the U.S. to draw from current weapons stocks to help allies in an emergency.Recent PDA announcements have typically ranged from $125 million to $250 million. Biden has an estimated $4 billion to $5 billion in PDA already authorized by Congress that he is expected to use for Ukraine before Republican President-elect Donald Trump takes office on Jan. 20.WAITING FOR TRUMPTrump is widely expected to change U.S. strategy on Ukraine, after he criticized the scale of Biden’s support for Kyiv and made quickly winding down the war a central campaign promise. Last week, he picked Keith Kellogg (NYSE:K), a retired lieutenant general who presented him with a plan to end the war, to serve as special envoy for the conflict.Kellogg’s plan for ending the war, which began when Russia invaded Ukrainian sovereign territory, involves freezing the battle lines at their prevailing locations and forcing both Kyiv and Moscow to the negotiating table, Reuters reported in June.The tranche of weapons represents the first time in decades that the United States has exported land mines, the use of which is controversial because of the potential harm to civilians.Although more than 160 countries have signed a treaty banning their use, Kyiv has been asking for them since Russia launched its full-scale invasion in early 2022, and Russian forces have used them on the front lines.The land mines that would be sent to Ukraine are “non-persistent,” with a power system that lasts for just a short time, leaving the devices non-lethal. This means that – unlike older landmines – they would not threaten civilians indefinitely. More

$75 per monthComplete digital access to quality FT journalism with expert analysis from industry leaders. Pay a year upfront and save 20%.What’s included Global news & analysisExpert opinionFT App on Android & iOSFT Edit appFirstFT: the day’s biggest stories20+ curated newslettersFollow topics & set alerts with myFTFT Videos & Podcasts20 monthly gift articles to shareLex: FT’s flagship investment column15+ Premium newsletters by leading expertsFT Digital Edition: our digitised print edition More

“I expect it will be appropriate to continue to move to a more neutral policy setting over time,” Williams said in prepared remarks to be delivered before a gathering of the Queens Chamber of Commerce, held in New York.The need for further rate comes as the Fed in September kicked off its rate cycle, charting a course toward a neutral level of rates – one that neither stimulus nor weighs on economic growth.  The New York Fed chief didn’t specify whether he supports a December rate cut, but continued to back a data-led approach to monetary policy decisions, acknowledging that “the outlook remains highly uncertain.”In the wake of concerns about why the Fed is cutting rates at a time when the economy doesn’t appear to be struggling, Williams pointed to rapid supply growth,  driven by growth in the labor force and productivity, that was outpacing demand, creating the need for the Fed to maintain balance.  “And now that we’ve achieved that balance, our job now is to ensure the risks remain in balance,” he added. More

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller, whose views are often a bellwether for U.S. monetary policy, said on Monday that with inflation still forecast to fall to 2% he is inclined “at present” to support another interest rate cut later this month.The comments from a key US rate-setter led investors to boost expectations for a rate cut at the Fed’s December 17-18 meeting to nearly 75%, and pushed down yields on the two-year Treasury note.”Policy is still restrictive enough that an additional cut at our next meeting will not dramatically change the stance of monetary policy and allow ample scope to later slow the pace of rate cuts, if needed, to maintain progress toward our inflation target,” Waller told a central bank symposium organized by the American Institute for Economic Research.Fed officials are nearing the blackout period for public comments ahead of the December meeting. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic on Monday said he did not consider the outcome of that gathering “preordained.” New York Fed President John Williams in his prepared remarks did not address the December question but said that he expects the Fed will need to cut rates further “over time.”Fed Chair Jerome Powell is set to add his voice to the debate with public remarks in New York on Wednesday.Both Waller and Bostic said data on inflation, jobs, and consumer spending, issued between now and the Fed meeting, will be important in deciding if rates should be cut as expected or not.”All of that information will help me decide whether to cut or skip. As of today, I am leaning toward continuing the work we have started in returning monetary policy to a more neutral setting” with continued rate cuts, said Waller, a key voice in shaping the Fed’s response to inflation that erupted to a 40-year high in 2022.DATA MATTERSThe Fed began reducing interest rates in September with a half-point reduction, following that with a quarter-point cut in November.A further quarter-point cut in December has been expected, but recent inflation data raised concern that progress may have stalled. One key measure, the personal consumption expenditures price index stripped of food and energy costs, has been mired in a range from 2.6% to 2.8% since May, well above the Fed’s 2% target.”If the data we receive between today and the next meeting surprise in a way that suggests our forecasts of slowing inflation and a moderating but still-solid economy are wrong, then I will be supportive of holding the policy rate constant,” Waller said.Waller said rates are also likely to continue falling next year, though the pace and degree of reduction remain to be determined. The Fed will issue new economic projections at its next meeting to show how far officials expect to cut their benchmark rate next year.The rate is currently set in a range between 4.5% and 4.75%. “The evidence is strong that policy continues to be significantly restrictive and that cutting again will only mean that we aren’t pressing on the brake pedal quite as hard,” Waller said. “I expect rate cuts to continue over the next year until we approach a more neutral setting of the policy rate.”Recent data “tells a fairly consistent story over the past year about moderating demand relative to supply, consistent with continued progress toward 2% inflation and without an undesirable weakening in the labor market,” said Waller, a fitness buff who compared the Fed’s battle with inflation to a mixed martial arts fighter in that sport’s unique arena.”Let me assure you that submission is inevitable – inflation isn’t getting out of the octagon,” Waller said. More

$75 per monthComplete digital access to quality FT journalism with expert analysis from industry leaders. Pay a year upfront and save 20%.What’s included Global news & analysisExpert opinionFT App on Android & iOSFT Edit appFirstFT: the day’s biggest stories20+ curated newslettersFollow topics & set alerts with myFTFT Videos & Podcasts20 monthly gift articles to shareLex: FT’s flagship investment column15+ Premium newsletters by leading expertsFT Digital Edition: our digitised print edition More

(Reuters) – A look at the day ahead in Asian markets. Investors in Asia go into Tuesday’s session with a spring in their step following the upswing in global stocks and risk appetite on Monday, but wary that the buoyant U.S. dollar can extinguish that optimism in a flash.Also keeping regional sentiment in check will be unease around China’s economic predicament, even though purchasing managers index data over the last 72 hours showed that factory activity in November expanded at the fastest pace in months.Much of that – the pickup in Chinese manufacturing activity, deepening disquiet about the outlook, and the dollar’s renewed vigor – is tied to U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s hardline stance on trade and threats of heavy tariffs when he takes office next month.His social media broadside on Saturday to countries contemplating backing away from the “mighty” U.S. dollar appears to have had an initial effect. Excluding Nov. 6, the day after the U.S. election, the dollar’s 0.6% appreciation on Monday was its biggest rise in six months. Europe’s economic and political travails, especially in France, are certainly at play, while the yen is drawing support from bets that the Bank of Japan could raise interest rates later this month.But the dollar’s independent strength cannot be ignored, and bullish sentiment toward emerging markets is rarely sustained for long when the dollar is on the march.Nor can China’s weakness be ignored. Some analysts say the positive PMI surprises are due to a ramp up in production before tariffs from Washington are levied, and China’s underlying economic health remains fragile.China’s bond market would appear to back up that assertion. The 10-year yield on Monday fell below 2% for the first time, while the 30-year yield is now below its Japanese equivalent for the first time in at least 20 years.Still, investors will draw comfort from the S&P 500 and Nasdaq’s rise to fresh peaks on Monday, and U.S. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller saying he is leaning toward a rate cut later this month.Remarkably, after Monday’s spike the S&P 500 has registered more than 50 record highs this year. But will that be enough to lift Asian markets on Tuesday? Asia’s calendar on Tuesday is light, with South Korean inflation the only major economic indicator on tap. It is one of several CPI releases this week following Indonesia’s on Monday and ahead of the latest snapshots from the Philippines, Taiwan and Thailand later in the week.Economists polled by Reuters expect South Korea’s annual rate of headline inflation in November to accelerate to 1.7% from a three and a half year low of 1.30% in October. That would mark the biggest jump since August last year.Here are key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Tuesday:- South Korea consumer inflation (November)- Bank of Thailand governor Sethaput Suthiwartnarueput speaks- Thailand’s finance minister Pichai Chunhavajira speaks More