Aurelia Butler

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  • 188 Shares169 Views

    in Economy

    Fed policy may need to stay restrictive for longer due to inflation risk, Barkin says

    BALTIMORE (Reuters) -The U.S. central bank’s benchmark policy rate should stay restrictive until it is more certain that inflation is returning to its 2% target, Richmond Federal Reserve President Thomas Barkin said on Friday.”I think there is more upside risk than downside risk” to inflation, given the economy’s continued strength and the possibility of renewed wage and other price pressures, Barkin told the Maryland Bankers Association in Baltimore. “I put myself in the camp of wanting to stay restrictive for longer as opposed to the other school, which would be ‘we’re done, so why not take rates down to neutral.'”Though Barkin is not a voting member of the Fed’s rate-setting committee this year, his comments reflect a developing debate inside the central bank about when to cut interest rates again and how to account for an increasingly uncertain economic environment as President-elect Donald Trump prepares to take power again later this month.Barkin anticipates a generally positive economic outlook for the coming year, with consumer spending likely to remain strong and businesses generally optimistic about what they see as pro-business tax and regulatory policies from the new administration. Heightened price sensitivity among consumers, meanwhile, should keep inflation in check and declining towards the Fed’s target, Barkin said.The impact of Trump’s trade and immigration policies, however, could also add to price and wage pressures, while the economy’s overall strength holds risks as well that inflation may remain elevated. “How economic policy uncertainty resolves will matter. But, with what we know today, I expect more upside than downside in terms of growth,” Barkin said, with potentially “more risk on the inflation side” if, for example, hiring strengthens.With businesses optimistic and consumers still spending, Barkin said he felt the job market “is more likely to break toward hiring than toward firing.”INFLATION UNCERTAINTYThe Fed cut its benchmark policy rate by a quarter of a percentage point at its meeting last month, and lowered it a full percentage point over its final three meetings of 2024.But one key measure of inflation, the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy, was at 2.8% in November and has been stuck in the 2.6%-2.8% range since May. Trump’s victory in the Nov. 5 U.S. presidential election has thrown further doubt around the upcoming path of prices, with his threat to impose higher tariffs on imports and tighten immigration controls possibly adding to costs that businesses may try to pass through to consumers. Fed policymakers in December projected the benchmark rate would fall only another half of a percentage point this year, and investors largely expect the central bank to hold its policy rate in the current 4.25%-4.50% range at its Jan. 28-29 meeting.The case for further reductions, Barkin said, would hinge on “real confidence that inflation has stably gotten down to the 2% target … The second would be a significant weakening on the demand side of the economy.” More

  • 88 Shares179 Views

    in Cryptocurrency

    Bybit’s crypto derivatives report highlights year-end trends

    The report revealed that open interest in BTC and ETH perpetual swaps remained stable during the critical year-end options expiration, despite not returning to the highs seen in early December 2024. This steadiness indicates that traders did not heavily depend on perpetual contracts to hedge the delta of expiring options, contributing to the subdued volatility during this period.Trading volumes fell during the winter holiday season, coinciding with a drop in realized volatility, which hit its lowest levels of December. Despite the expiration of December’s options, there wasn’t a surge in volatility as expected. Instead, realized volatility fell to the lower end of its recent range.The implied volatility term structure for BTC options continues to be steep, with longer-dated implied volatility around 57% and 1-week at-the-money options trading about five points lower. Most of the expired open interest has not been reinvested, maintaining a neutral call-put balance. As a result, BTC’s options market shows limited leverage compared to its position at the beginning of December 2024, indicating a cautious sentiment.Despite the substantial expiration of ETH options in late December 2024, the market dynamics remained stable. A spike in realized volatility in December did not carry over into the new year, with ETH’s spot price currently exhibiting lower volatility compared to short-tenor implied volatility.Over the past week, the implied volatility term structure for ETH options has changed, briefly steepening before flattening again, diverging from BTC’s consistently steep profile. This pattern suggests that ETH’s options market is preparing for potential short-term volatility in spot price movements.Interestingly, call options for ETH have gained momentum at the start of 2025, dominating the market and indicating an optimistic outlook among traders.This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C. More

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    in Cryptocurrency

    deVere CEO says US likely to buy hundreds of thousands of Bitcoins

    According to Green, this move would not only cement the dollar’s dominance but also ignite a historic Bitcoin bull run.Green believes the establishment of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve is “almost inevitable.”He explains, “The US will likely cement Bitcoin as a cornerstone of its financial strategy, and this monumental decision will push Bitcoin’s value to unprecedented levels.”The forecast follows Senator Cynthia Lummis’ introduction of the Bitcoin Act of 2024, which proposes acquiring one million Bitcoins over five years using Federal Reserve remittances.While political negotiations may reduce the target, Green believes a reserve of 300,000 to 400,000 Bitcoins will still materialize, driven by “overwhelming momentum from both retail and institutional investors.””This is more than an economic initiative; it’s a geopolitical masterstroke,” Green states. He argues that such a reserve would bolster the US’s position as a crypto leader and secure the dollar’s relevance in an increasingly digital economy.Support from President Trump and a Republican-controlled Congress strengthens the proposal’s prospects.Trump, described by Green as a “pro-Bitcoin ringmaster,” is galvanizing his party around crypto-friendly policies.”Republican dominance and Trump’s role…provide the perfect conditions for such a transformative policy,” Green adds, noting bipartisan support from pro-crypto Democrats.Despite potential political hurdles, Green believes strong demand and fear of missing out (FOMO) among investors will ensure a meaningful reserve is established.He predicts this reserve would “trigger a Bitcoin bull run of epic proportions,” driving exponential value growth and reshaping global financial markets.”Bitcoin is no longer just a speculative asset,” Green concludes. “It is becoming a strategic tool for economic resilience and global competitiveness.” More

  • 100 Shares99 Views

    in Cryptocurrency

    Almost $400 Million Bitcoin (BTC) Transactions: Who Involved?

    Whether it is market preparation, extensive investment activity or internal restructuring, such movements frequently spark conjecture about their motivations. A total of 1,481 Bitcoin was transferred to a new wallet address in this transaction, which was worth $142.08 million. The transaction’s nature raises the possibility that it was made for cold storage or the creation of a new position with no apparent market intent.With a value of $239.2 million, the 2,481 BTC transfer reflects the first one’s features. The size alone suggests a whale-level player, but in the absence of additional blockchain activity the goal is still hypothetical. Despite these big transactions, the price of Bitcoin is still comparatively stable at $96,270.Following a recent rally, the price action displays consolidation with the asset trading below the 50 EMA. Despite the initial bullish momentum, this positioning indicates lingering bearish pressure. Bitcoin may continue on its upward trajectory if it can push above the 50 EMA. On the other hand, the chart’s lack of volume raises questions regarding the strength of any prospective rally.Reduced trader participation may indicate caution, but the low volume may also make price movements easier. Frequently such significant fluctuations prompt inquiries regarding the general mood of the market. Depending on the on-chain activity that follows, these transfers may indicate an accumulation phase, institutional repositioning or market redistribution.Furthermore, it appears from the comparatively flat price action that the market is waiting for a catalyst to determine its next course of action. As of right now, Bitcoin seems to be in a consolidation phase with resistance at $96,500 and crucial support levels around $87,500.This article was originally published on U.Today More

  • 263 Shares119 Views

    in Cryptocurrency

    Storage-Focused Xenea Blockchain Opens Ecosystem Partnership Opportunities Ahead of Mainnet LaunchStorage-Focused Xenea Blockchain Opens Ecosystem Partnership Opportunities Ahead of Mainnet Launch

    Xenea, an EVM-compatible Layer 1 blockchain, has integrated decentralized storage to support dynamic data use cases, positioning itself as a robust infrastructure for the next era of Web3 applications. Guided by the vision of “Ideas Transcending Millennia,” Xenea focuses on long-term token and data storage solutions while enabling new capabilities for AI and decentralized physical infrastructure networks (DePIN).To strengthen the protocol’s reliability, Xenea follows a peer-review approach. Core architecture papers are submitted to the IEEE, a prominent academic society in telecommunications, for validation. Code implementation begins only after these papers undergo rigorous academic peer review. The validated papers are accessible on IEEE Xplore.Xenea incorporates two key technological architectures:Background of Recruiting Ecosystem PartnersXenea features its own distributed storage system and operates as an EVM-compatible Layer 1 blockchain, enabling businesses to handle a broader range of data on the blockchain. In the emerging era of the distributed web—integrated with advancements in AI, Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), Brain-Machine Interfaces (BMI), and virtual technologies—secure and permanent data storage infrastructure is becoming increasingly essential. Xenea aims to meet this need by offering its storage solutions to a broader range of Web3 projects.Xenea’s public mainnet and Token Generation Event (TGE) are scheduled for launch in Q1 2025. As part of the preparation, a download campaign for the XENEA Wallet is underway as of December 2024. This campaign serves as a critical step toward ensuring the robustness of the Proof of Democracy (PoD) security at the mainnet launch. Participants who contribute significantly during the campaign will be prioritized for token airdrops and Mining Passport NFTs. Wallets with these NFTs will play an active role in consensus and supporting the Xenea network structure.The XENEA Wallet download campaign has achieved over 1.2 million downloads to date. This growing user base presents a significant opportunity for ecosystem partners, offering high visibility and user acquisition potential. By leveraging the XENEA Wallet for exposure and engaging in collaborative cross-marketing initiatives, Xenea aims to foster mutual growth and strengthen the ecosystem.In a pilot cross-marketing initiative with Chat3, an early adopter of the Xenea blockchain, over 250,000 users were successfully directed to their service, resulting in notable activity levels.Xenea is actively engaging in business development with local economic organizations and government bodies across the Middle East, Africa, and Asia. Future expansion into these regions is also being explored in collaboration with ecosystem partners.To learn more about Xenea’s technology and development journey before applying as a partner, it is recommended to review their blog.Ecosystem Partner RecruitmentXenea is seeking ecosystem partners to collaborate on expanding its blockchain infrastructure. Eligible project representatives can submit inquiries via the partner application form linked below.Main Benefits as an Ecosystem Partner1. Web3 ProjectsPartnership Inquiry Form: https://forms.gle/AKFU66cRRuJ3C5nt9For more information on XeneaThis article was originally published on Chainwire More

  • 113 Shares119 Views

    in Cryptocurrency

    Satoshi Nakamoto Launched Bitcoin This Date 16 Years Ago

    The Genesis Block, also known as Block 0, was mined by Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonym used by Bitcoin’s creator or creators, on Jan. 3, 2009. Unlike subsequent Bitcoin blocks, the Genesis Block rewarded 50 BTC, which can never be spent.This first block included an iconic message embedded in its code: “The Times 03/Jan/2009 Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks,” which refers to a headline in The Times published on the same day.Although Satoshi Nakamoto released the Bitcoin whitepaper Oct. 28, 2008, many believe its launch date of Jan. 3, 2009, reflects the cryptocurrency’s birthday.The days that followed were historic: Jan. 9, 2009, saw the first release of the Bitcoin software that launched the network and the first units of the Bitcoin cryptocurrency. Satoshi Nakamoto released Bitcoin 0.1 on this date, with only Windows supported.On Jan. 12, 2009, the first transaction on the Bitcoin network was recorded in block 170 between Satoshi and legendary cypherpunk Hal Finney.Since this time and now spanning 16 years, Bitcoin has grown significantly to become a global phenomenon. With a current market cap of $1.91 trillion, Bitcoin is trading at $96,560 after setting record highs of $108,268 on Dec. 17.Bitcoin inspired thousands of cryptocurrencies and blockchain projects, altering the future of finance, technology and governance.Bitcoin surged to $97,776 on Thursday, while altcoins such as Ethereum, XRP, Dogecoin and Solana gained as investors increased their holdings at the start of the year.Crypto assets fell toward the end of 2024. Although the rally that propelled Bitcoin to fresh highs beyond $100,000 had faded, the flagship cryptocurrency nevertheless finished the year up more than 120%. Long-term investors took profits, but others sold on renewed uncertainty about the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decreases in 2025.This article was originally published on U.Today More

  • 88 Shares159 Views

    in Economy

    Dollar stays near two-year high, stocks struggle

    SINGAPORE/LONDON (Reuters) -The dollar dipped but stayed close to a two-year high against a group of peers on Friday on investor bets the gap between growth in the U.S. and elsewhere will widen, while Chinese blue chips suffered their biggest weekly fall since 2022. The dollar index, which tracks the currency against a basket of six other currencies, hit its highest since November 2022 on Thursday, as the euro fell to $1.02248 also its lowest since 2022. The pound and Japanese yen were at multi-month lows too.While other currencies did manage to rebound a touch on Friday – the euro was last up 0.3% at $1.0297 – the dollar’s continued strength dominated the market mood. [FRX/] “If a currency’s valuation is an expression of the degree of confidence in the growth outlook relative to other economies, it is a damning assessment of how the market reads the euro zone outlook versus that of the U.S. in 2025,” said Kenneth Broux, head of corporate research FX and rates at Societe Generale (OTC:SCGLY). The U.S. currency rallied late last year as investors bet President-elect Donald Trump’s policies would drive growth and inflation, meaning fewer further rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and higher yields on U.S. Treasuries, when European central banks are set to keep cutting rates. While U.S. Treasuries yields have come off their late December highs – the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield was last at 4.543%, down 3 basis points on the day – the dollar has kept climbing on growth concerns elsewhere. [US/] “Aside from the implications of expected U.S. protectionism under Trump, we think pressure is being added by the rise in (gas prices) caused by Ukraine’s pipeline shutdown,” said Francesco Pesole, currency analyst at ING. Wholesale gas prices in Europe are around their highest in 14 months, with temperatures falling, lower levels of gas in storage and the expiry of a decades-long deal for Russia to supply gas to Europe via Ukraine. [EU/NG] That is an added headwind for European stocks, which were down 0.26% on Friday, reversing gains from the previous day, though oil and gas shares gained 0.9%. Friday’s fall in European stocks was in part a catch-up with a late decline on Thursday in the U.S., where benchmarks ended broadly lower. Shares of Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) sank 6.1% after the company reported its first annual drop in deliveries. [.N] S&P and Nasdaq futures were both up around 0.3% on Friday however. CHINA WORRIES Growth concerns in China are also near the top of investors’ minds. The country’s blue chip index shed 5.2% this week, its biggest weekly loss since October 2022.[.SS] In addition, China’s yuan slid past the 7.3 per dollar technical threshold to a 14-month low, on a confluence of crumbling Chinese yields, rate cut expectations in the face of a strong U.S. dollar and the threat of tariffs from the incoming Trump administration. [CNY/]The fall in yields, as investors seek the safety of government bonds, has been steep. Ten-year and 30-year Chinese government bond yields each weakened around 3 basis points to touch record lows. An announcement from China that it will sharply increase funding from ultra-long treasury bonds in 2025 to spur business investment and consumer-boosting initiatives, did little to boost the mood. Despite political turmoil in South Korea, shares there rose after five sessions of declines, as the country’s finance minister, who was last month appointed acting president, said he remained committed to stabilising the country’s financial markets. (KS) In commodities, Brent crude oil futures eased marginally to $75.86 a barrel and U.S. crude was steady at $73.09. [O/R] Gold also held firm at $2,655 per ounce, after a 27% rise in 2024, its strongest annual performance since 2010. [GOL/] More

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    in Economy

    Dollar set to end week on a high on US rates and economic outlook

    SINGAPORE (Reuters) -The dollar was on track for its strongest weekly performance since early December on Friday, propped up by expectations that the U.S. economy will continue to outperform its peers globally this year and U.S. interest rates will stay elevated for longer.The greenback began the new year on a strong note, reaching a more than two-year high of 109.54 against a basket of currencies on Thursday as it extended a stellar rally from last year.A more hawkish Fed and a resilient U.S. economy have led U.S. Treasury yields to rise, prompting the dollar to charge higher.Coupled with expectations that policies by U.S. President-elect Donald Trump will boost growth this year and potentially add to price pressures, the dollar now looks relentless.”Looks like dollar strength is here to stay for now in early 2025 given the U.S. exceptionalism story is here to stay, and it still comes with high U.S. yields,” said Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo.”Add to that the uncertainty from policies of the incoming (Donald) Trump administration, and you also get the safety aspect of the dollar looking attractive.”Uncertainties over how Trump’s plans for hefty import tariffs, tax cuts and immigration restrictions will affect global markets has in turn given the greenback additional safe haven support.Jobless claims data on Thursday confirmed a resilient U.S. labour market, with the number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits dropping to an eight-month low last week. The dollar index last stood at 109, down 0.2% on the day, but on track for a weekly gain of just under 1%, its strongest since early December.Other currencies attempted to rebound against the firm dollar on Friday, still tracking steep losses on the week.The euro was last up 0.28% at $1.02950 but was headed for a 1.3% weekly decline, its worst since November.The common currency was among the biggest losers against a towering dollar, having tumbled 0.86% in the previous session to a more than two-year low of $1.022475.Traders are pricing in more than 100 basis points worth of rate cuts from the European Central Bank next year, while they expect just about 45 bps of easing from the Fed.Uncertainties around trade policies of the incoming Trump administration are also weighing on the outlook for the euro looking ahead, along with China’s yuan and some other emerging market currencies.”We expect Trump’s policy mix to trigger further dollar strengthening, with European currencies – and the euro in particular – coming under pressure from protectionism and monetary easing,” said ING analysts in a note.Similarly, sterling ticked up 0.22% to $1.24065, after sliding 1.16% on Thursday. It was on track to lose roughly 1.4% for the week.Elsewhere, the yen rose around 0.24% to 157.085 per dollar, but was not far from an over five-month low of 158.09 per dollar hit in December.The Japanese currency has been a victim of the stark interest rate differential between the U.S. and Japan for over two years now, with the Bank of Japan’s caution over further rate increases spelling more pain for the yen.The yen tumbled more than 10% in 2024, extending its losses into a fourth straight year.China’s onshore yuan hit its weakest level in over a year at 7.3190 per dollar, as falling yields and expectations of more domestic rate cuts continued to weigh on the currency. More