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    Wolfe Research outlines five potential surprises for 2025

    1. Port workers strike: a possible port workers strike on Jan. 15 — stemming from unresolved issues regarding automation in port operations — disrupting supply chains and potentially impacting GDP by approximately $3.1 billion per day.2. Downward revisions to payrolls may force Fed pivot: The upcoming benchmark revisions could reveal a downward adjustment of around 68,000 jobs per month, indicating a slowing job growth rate that may prompt a dovish pivot from the Fed.3. Shake up at the Fed:  The potential resignation of Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr could lead to significant changes in leadership, with Governor Michelle Bowman poised to take over his role and Kevin Warsh potentially being appointed as a new governor.4. Broadening out of stock market rally unlikely: despite investor hopes for a broader market rally, concentration within the index may persist, Wolfe Research said. This trend reflects a longer-term pattern where the S&P 500 has outperformed the equal-weight index in seven of the last ten years.5. President-elect Trump may opt for less harsh tariffs: after initial market reactions to tariff headlines, Trump might end his pursuit of significant tariffs. This would defy widespread investor expectations, as many anticipate increased tariffs on Chinese goods and others. More

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    Goldman Sachs economist lists 10 key questions for 2025

    Will GDP Growth Be Above Consensus? Goldman forecasts a 2.4% GDP growth for 2025, surpassing the 2.0% consensus. They attribute this to robust private domestic demand and business investment supported by artificial intelligence and federal incentives like the Inflation Reduction Act.Will Consumer Spending Remain Resilient? Yes, according to the investment bank. They expect consumer spending to rise 2.3% in 2025, driven by solid real income gains, a strong labor market, and wealth effects from rising equity markets.Will the Labor Market Continue to Soften? Goldman doesn’t believe so. The unemployment rate is expected to dip slightly to 4% by the end of 2025. Goldman sees strong demand growth and slowing immigrant labor supply contributing to this stability.Will core PCE inflation net of tariff effects fall below 2.4% year-on-year? Goldman anticipates core PCE inflation to fall to 2.1% by year-end 2025, barring tariff impacts, as wage pressures ease and catch-up inflation subsides.Fed Rate Cuts? Goldman predicts three rate cuts at a quarterly or every-other-meeting pace in March, June, and September 2025. This dovish stance reflects the bank’s confidence in inflation’s decline and tempered impacts from potential tariff policies.Will the Neutral Rate Estimate Increase? Goldman Sachs economists anticipate the Fed will raise its median neutral rate estimate to 3.25% or higher, reflecting broader demand influences.Will President-elect Trump try to fire or demote Fed Chair Powell? The bank doesn’t think so. They stated that the impression they have “is that the White House concluded during Trump’s first term that it cannot remove the Chair because the law only permits this for cause, and courts are unlikely to agree that failing to deliver rate cuts meets this standard.”Immigration Policy Changes? Net immigration is forecast to decrease to 750,000 annually, aligning with tighter policies under the Trump administration.Tariffs and Trade Tensions? Goldman expects higher tariffs on Chinese imports but avoids a universal tariff scenario, citing economic and political risks.Federal Budget Concerns? Deficit reduction is unlikely, according to the bank, with tax cuts and defense spending offsetting fiscal constraints.  “We also expect federal spending growth to rise somewhat, particularly on defense. A modest gain in tariff revenue, as noted earlier, would partly offset these changes,” says Goldman. More

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    Bitcoin (BTC) Loses Support: 2025 to Begin With Crash? Shiba Inu (SHIB) Hits Critical Level, XRP Struggles to Hold Above $2

    A bearish signal, the 50 EMA’s loss could lead to more selling pressure, particularly if traders expect the downtrend to continue. The 200 EMA, which is around $76,160, and the psychological level, which is at $85,457, are the next important support levels. Even more severe drops may occur in the first quarter of 2025 if Bitcoin is unable to stabilize at these levels. Recent trading session volume profiles point to waning market activity, which makes Bitcoin even more vulnerable. A recovery to retest the 50 EMA appears unlikely in the near future in the absence of strong buying pressure. Nonetheless, it might indicate a brief recovery and reestablish some market confidence if bulls are able to push Bitcoin back above the 50 EMA in the upcoming days.Bearish momentum may not yet be exhausted, as indicated by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which is trending lower while remaining in the neutral zone. Given the current lack of robust institutional or retail demand, the outlook is still cautious. The climate for Bitcoin is going to be difficult in 2025.A strong catalyst is required by the market to prevent further losses, which could include technical recovery above critical levels such as $96,472, macroeconomic changes or renewed institutional interest. SHIB has performed poorly at the end of 2024, and bulls are having trouble regaining control. The move to the 200 EMA suggests that SHIB is vulnerable due to a protracted period of weak demand and selling pressure. A recovery from this level is feasible, but it will take significant buying pressure and fresh market interest to offset the pessimistic outlook.Declining activity in volume profiles emphasizes traders’ lack of confidence even more. It is possible that the asset is nearing exhaustion because the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has also fallen into oversold territory. However, a reversal is not always assured by oversold conditions, particularly when the overall market environment is still unclear.Psychological zones around $0.000020 and $0.000018 will be the next levels to keep an eye on if SHIB is unable to maintain the 200 EMA as support. A collapse beneath these levels might hasten losses and send SHIB into a bearish trend that might take over in early 2025. Right now, the 200 EMA is the center of attention.Although there is some hope for stabilization, the overall technical picture indicates that SHIB is treading carefully. Although the road ahead is still difficult, bulls must swiftly regain higher levels to stop further deterioration. The $2 mark has served as a pivotal point in XRP’s performance, particularly after its spectacular surge earlier this year. But the asset’s current inability to maintain this level begs the question of whether the momentum will pick back up in 2025. It looks like XRP is getting close to a critical point as the RSI and declining volume indicate more bearish pressure. XRP is approaching its 50 EMA, the first significant support level since the start of its enormous rally, according to the technical picture. Historically, the 50 EMA has been a crucial level for XRP, frequently dictating whether the asset recovers or becomes vulnerable to prolonged corrections. Bulls might become more optimistic if this level is successfully defended, but a breakdown could lead to a more significant retracement toward $1.80 or even $1.50.At this time, the trajectory of XRP will be greatly influenced by the state of the market as a whole and investor sentiment. Although there is struggle in the current price action, traders should pay close attention because of the 50 EMA’s proximity. If market conditions improve, a recovery from this level might pave the way for a new rally in early 2025.As the year begins, it will be important to keep an eye on XRP’s performance around $2 and how it interacts with the 50 EMA. The year 2025 is expected to be a crucial year for XRP regardless of whether it regains momentum or encounters new difficulties.This article was originally published on U.Today More

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    Abu Dhabi’s Mubadala overtakes Saudi Arabia’s PIF as world’s top wealth fund spender

    DUBAI (Reuters) – Abu Dhabi’s Mubadala Investment Company accounted for about 20% of the almost $136.1 billion spent by sovereign wealth funds worldwide last year, overtaking Saudi Arabia’s wealth fund amid a surge in spending from Gulf countries. Mubadala and its subsidiaries deployed $29.2 billion in 2024, up from $17.5 billion invested in 2023, based on a preliminary annual report from industry specialist Global SWF, which tracks the world’s sovereign investment funds. Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund lost its ranking as the world’s most active sovereign wealth fund after it cut its investment spend by 37% to $19.9 billion in 2024 from $31.6 billion the previous year, according to the report.PIF Governor Yasir Al-Rumayyan said in October the sovereign wealth fund was more focused on the domestic economy and aiming to reduce the fund’s international investments.Still, the Gulf’s sovereign wealth funds controlled by governments of Abu Dhabi, Qatar and Saudi Arabia “invested a record” $82 billion in 2024, a rise of more than 10% from 2023, the report said. Other groups such as Canada’s Maple 8, the Singaporean funds or the Australian superannuation funds were more active than in 2023, but remained below their peaks in 2021-2022, the report added.Overall sovereign wealth funds’ assets under management rose 6.1% this year to $13 trillion, a historical peak, and public pension funds rose 6% to reach $25 trillion. Norway has the world’s biggest sovereign wealth fund. Sovereign investments into digitisation, which include data centres, digital infrastructure, artificial intelligence and space investing, reached $27.7 billion in 2024.Abu Dhabi, a wealthy oil producer and longtime security partner of the U.S., is in a race to become an AI leader amid rising competition in the region as Qatar and Saudi Arabia pitch themselves as potential AI hubs outside the United States.The push is led by the government-backed G42 and MGX, a firm in which Mubadala is a partner. Emirati officials believe the Gulf state’s bet on artificial intelligence will strengthen its international clout by making it a key economic actor long after demand for oil has dried up.Real estate and private equity investment volumes by sovereign wealth funds were unchanged, while infrastructure and credit continued to rise, the report said.Deal activity by state funds rose 5% in 2024 to $216 billion. Average deal size rose to a six-year high of $370 million. More

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    China December new home prices rise a touch faster, survey shows

    The average price of new homes across 100 cities edged up 0.37% from a month earlier, compared with the 0.36% rise in November, according to data from property researcher China Index Academy.On a year-on-year basis, the average price rose 2.68% in December, versus 2.40% growth in the previous month.Official data for home prices will be released by China’s statistics bureau on Jan. 17.China’s policymakers in recent months doubled down on their efforts to revive the sector, which crashed in 2021 after a government-led campaign to rein in indebted developers left them severely cash-strapped.Since September, measures aimed at encouraging homebuying have included cutting mortgage rates and minimum down-payments, as well as tax incentives. More

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    Investors hope for US stock market trifecta in 2025 after back-to-back boom years

    NEW YORK (Reuters) -Investors are expecting more gains for the U.S. stock market in 2025 after two straight standout years, fueled by a solid economy supporting corporate profits, moderating interest rates and pro-growth policies from incoming President Donald Trump.The benchmark S&P 500 was up 23.31% in 2024, even with a recent speed bump, marking its second-straight year of gains exceeding 20%, lifted by megacap tech stocks and excitement over the business potential of artificial intelligence.The index soared 53.19% over the last two years, the biggest two-year percentage jump since 1998. Investors are more confident about the economy than this time a year ago, with consumers and businesses having absorbed higher interest rates and the Federal Reserve now lowering them – albeit by not as much as hoped. Corporate profits are also expected to be strong, with S&P 500 earnings per share projected to rise 10.67% in 2025, according to LSEG.On the other side of the ledger, inflation remains stubborn, and Wall Street is wary of a rebound that could lead the Fed to change course on its easing cycle. Indeed, stocks pulled back sharply earlier in December after the central bank projected fewer rate cuts next year as it braced for firmer inflation.Such prospects could become more likely if Trump implements tariffs on U.S. imports that lead to higher consumer prices. Stock valuations, meanwhile, are around their steepest levels in more than three years, leaving greater potential for turbulence.”We’ve been on quite the tear coming off the lows back at the end of 2022. It’s been pretty eye-watering,” said Garrett Melson, portfolio strategist at Natixis Investment Managers. “Animal spirits … are certainly running pretty wild right now, but you might need to temper that a little bit as you start to move through the year,” said Melson, who thinks the stock market could still produce solid gains of around 10% in 2025 if not the returns of the prior two years.Wall Street firms are mostly projecting gains for the market next year, with S&P 500 year-end targets ranging from 6,000 to 7,000 points. The index ended 2024 at 5,881 on Tuesday.Optimistic investors can point to a bull market that is neither old nor over-extended by historic measures.The current bull market for the S&P 500 that began in October 2022 is less than half as long as the average length of the 10 prior ones, according to Keith Lerner, co-chief investment officer at Truist Advisory Services. The S&P 500’s roughly 64% gain during this latest run trails the 108% median gain and 184% average rise of the prior bull markets, according to Lerner.”If you zoom out a little bit, yes, we have a lot of gains, but if you look at a typical bull market, it suggests that we still have further gains to go,” Lerner said.Other historic signs also bode well. The S&P 500 has gained an average of 12.3% following the eight instances of back-to-back 20% annual gains since 1950, according to Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group, compared to a 9.3% overall average increase over that time. The index increased six of the eight times. ECONOMY WEATHERING RATES Bolstering the upbeat sentiment is the prevailing sense on Wall Street that the economy has weathered the rate hikes the Fed implemented starting in 2022 to quell inflation.A Natixis Investment Managers survey conducted in recent weeks found 73% of institutional investors said the U.S. will avoid a recession in 2025. That is a sharp turnaround from a year ago, when 62% projected such a downturn in the coming year. Citigroup (NYSE:C)’s economic surprise index, which measures how economic data performs versus expectations, has been solidly positive for the past two months, another rosy sign for investors.Adding to expectations of a solid economy, Trump is expected to pursue an agenda that includes tax cuts and deregulation that supports growth.”We’re leaving 2024 on pretty good footing, and we think there is some re-acceleration in 2025,” said Sameer Samana, senior global market strategist at Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) Investment Institute. “Markets tend to front-run the economy, so they will position for that economic re-acceleration sooner rather than later.”However, stocks are also leaving 2024 at elevated valuations: the S&P 500 was trading at 24.82 times expected earnings over the next 12 months, according to LSEG. That is well above its long-term average of 15.8, and not far from the 22.6 level it reached earlier this month, its highest since early 2021. Investors maintain that valuations can stay high for long periods and do not necessarily indicate imminent declines. But future gains may rest more on earnings growth, while higher valuations could make stocks more easily rattled by any disappointments.Risks include policy uncertainty such as Trump’s expected push to raise tariffs on imports from China and other trading partners, which analysts estimate could hurt corporate profits. Higher tariffs could also increase inflation, which is another worry for investors. The pace of inflation has fallen dramatically since hitting 40-year highs in 2022, but remains above the Fed’s 2% target. The latest reading of the consumer price index found a 2.7% annual inflation rate.”How low we can get rates is really going to be dependent on how low we can get inflation,” said Michael Reynolds, vice president of investment strategy at Glenmede. “If we see inflation settling out to the 3-ish percent range, we think the Fed’s not going to be as aggressive next year.”Glenmede is recommending investors take a neutral posture on overall portfolio risk, including for equities. “Investors should be what I would call cautiously optimistic,” Reynolds said. “We … have an economy that’s showing signs of late-stage expansion alongside valuations that are pretty rich.” More

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    Bitcoin May Face Investor Shift Toward Gold in 2025, Mike McGlone Warns

    McGlone pointed out that odds are that gold may also draw investors from the stock market and “have the upper hand,” “especially if Bitcoin has peaked” this year.He also noted that gold will attract investors from crypto, including Bitcoin, in 2025.As reported by U.Today earlier, top cryptocurrency analyst Michael van de Poppe has named the Tether FUD that is currently circulating the crypto market as the main reason why the Bitcoin price is unable to go back above $100,000.On Dec. 30, the European authorities implemented new crypto regulatory rules that assume strong compliance, and many expect Tether’s stablecoin, USDT, not to fit into these new regulatory rules. Therefore, many are spreading speculation that the most popular stablecoin would be delisted from European exchanges. However, Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino has refuted those rumors, assuring that Europe will not call USDT illegal on its markets.This article was originally published on U.Today More

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    Plume Network’s RWA Momentum Continues as Nest Campaign Pushes Pre-Deposits to $64M

    Ahead of its anticipated mainnet launch, Plume Network today announced its pre-deposit vaults have reached $64.4M in total deposits following the successful completion of its latest campaign with Nest, the flagship RWA staking protocol. The Nest campaign attracted $28.6M in deposits, following StakeStone’s earlier pre-deposit campaign, demonstrating significant demand for RWA-backed DeFi offerings.The Nest RWA staking campaign saw more than 20,000 users participate for early access, highlighting strong interest in the protocol’s innovative approach to real world asset yield generation. Nest, built exclusively on Plume, will provide depositors first access to its staking vaults, offering a variety of yields backed by institutional-grade real world assets, top crypto assets, or stable treasuries.Pre-deposits in USDT and USDC gave early users access to Nest’s vaults with boosted reward rates before mainnet. Through Nest’s ecosystem on Plume, users gained permissionless access without middlemen to yield opportunities from institutional assets typically restricted to traditional finance.”We designed this campaign with our community in mind,” said Teddy Pornprinya, Co-founder at Plume. “When our initial vault filled within 20 minutes, we listened to our community who had asked us to expand previous vaults, and opened access beyond our initial $10M cap. We’re committed to our early supporters – not only are we preserving their rewards, we’re actually increasing the total reward pool to match the additional deposits.”The strong response to these campaigns reinforces Plume Network’s position as a leading platform for RWA protocols and DeFi users. With its EVM-compatible infrastructure and full-stack tokenization architecture, Plume has already attracted over 180 projects to its ecosystem, while Nest provides asset issuers unparalleled distribution to Web3 users.Nest’s launch will feature three key vaults: a flagship RWA Vault offering liquid access to yields from established asset managers like Blackstone (NYSE:BX), Carlyle, and Pimco; a Treasuries Vault providing stable returns through AAA-rated assets managed by Plume’s partners M^0, Mountain, and Anemoy; and a High Yield Vault for users seeking growth opportunities through blue-chip crypto assets.”Each vault is designed for different user preferences while maintaining core principles of security and liquidity,” said Alex Palmer, Head of Product at Plume. “Whether users choose the RWA, Treasuries, or High Yield vault, they can easily deposit and withdraw while earning high-quality yields. Looking ahead, we’re exploring additional vaults that could include exposure to AI infrastructure, GPUs, government bonds, and real estate.”Nest’s vaults are secured by multiple audit firms including SlowMist, risk assessment by Cicada Partners, and an additional audit to be completed by Trail of Bits.The success of both pre-deposit campaigns signals growing institutional and retail demand for real world assets, establishing Plume Network as a cornerstone of the emerging RWAfi ecosystem.About Plume NetworkPlume is the first fully integrated L1 modular blockchain focused on RWAfi, offering a composable, EVM-compatible environment for onboarding and managing diverse real-world assets. With 180+ projects on its private devnet, Plume provides an end-to-end tokenization engine and a network of financial infrastructure partners, simplifying asset onboarding and enabling seamless DeFi integration for RWAs.For more information, visit https://plumenetwork.xyz and https://x.com/plumenetwork.About NestNest is the flagship staking protocol on Plume enabling users to earn institutional-grade yields through real world assets. The permissionless protocol allows fund managers and issuers to create structured offerings, while giving users access to traditionally restricted assets and opportunities. Audited by SlowMist and risk-assessed by Cicada Partners, Nest leverages Plume’s infrastructure to democratize access to institutional yields.For more information, visit https://nest.credit and https://x.com/NestCreditContactPlume Networkpress@plumenetwork.xyzThis article was originally published on Chainwire More