Aurelia Butler

The $300bn deal for rich countries to help poorer nations struck at the UN climate summit early Sunday was only reached through frantic diplomacy, including a high-level meeting the night before in a VIP room of the Baku stadium.The meeting of ministers from both wealthy and developing nations included Colombian climate minister Susana Muhamad; Kenya’s Ali Mohamed; Brazil’s Ana Toni, Ed Miliband from the UK and Germany’s Jennifer Morgan, those aware of the late night Friday gathering told the FT.It took place as the countries gathered for the UN COP29 summit remained gridlocked over the size and shape of a landmark deal to provide money to developing countries hit by the worst effects of climate change. But it also came against the backdrop of a separate battle for the inclusion of an explicit reference to next steps in the transition away from fossil fuels agreed at the last year’s UN summit in Dubai, to strengthen the pledge. This was blocked by Saudi Arabia and Russia, and was only given an indirect reference in the final outcome, maintaining the status quo. However, fossil fuel reliant nations failed in their push for a reference to “transition fuels” — taken to mean gas — when the overall agenda item was postponed after objections from a Latin American and Caribbean nations alliance, Switzerland, the Maldives, Fiji, Canada and Australia.Ana Toni, Brazil’s national secretary for climate change, and UK energy secretary Ed Miliband were a key duo in shepherding the COP29 agreement More

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SYDNEY (Reuters) – The dollar surrendered a little of its recent gains on Monday as investors assumed the pick for U.S. Treasury secretary would reassure the bond market and pulled yields lower, shaving some of the dollar’s rate advantage.Yields on 10-year Treasuries slipped to 4.351%, from 4.412% late Friday, as President-elect Donald Trump’s choice of fund manager Scott Bessent was welcomed by the bond market as an old Wall Street hand and a fiscal conservative.However, Bessent has also been openly in favour of a strong dollar and has supported tariffs, suggesting any pullback in the currency might be fleeting.”Bessent has publicly lauded dollar strength following news of Trump’s election win, so I admit to being somewhat perplexed by the suggestion that the weakening in the dollar is because of his appointment,” said Ray Attrill, head of FX research at NAB. “He is an avowed fiscal hawk, so perhaps that has something to do with it, but seeing is going to be believing in this regard.”The dollar was likely due some consolidation having risen for eight weeks in a row for only the third time this century and many technical indicators were flashing overbought.The index was last down 0.5% at 106.950, having hit a two-year peak of 108.090 on Friday. The dollar dipped 0.4% on the Japanese yen to 154.18, and further away from its recent peak of 156.76.The euro edged up 0.7% to $1.0496 and away from Friday’s two-year trough of $1.0332. Resistance is up at $1.0555 and $1.0610, with support around $1.0195 and the major $1.0000 level.The single currency had taken a hit on Friday as European manufacturing surveys (PMI) showed broad weakness, while the U.S. surveys surprised on the high side.The contrast saw European bond yields fall sharply, widening the gap with Treasury yields to the benefit of the dollar. Markets also priced in more aggressive easing from the European Central Bank, with the probability of a half-point rate cut in December rising to 59%.At the same time, futures scaled back the chance of a quarter-point rate cut from the Federal Reserve in December to 52%, compared to 72% a month ago. Markets now imply 154 basis points of ECB easing by the end of next year, compared to just 65 basis points from the Fed.Data on UK retail sales also disappointed, leading the market to price in more chance of a rate cut from the Bank of England, albeit in February rather than December.That saw the pound touch a six-week low on Friday at $1.2484. Early Monday, sterling had bounced 0.4% to $1.2591, but remained well short of last week’s top of $1.2714. In the crypto world, Bitcoin eased 1.2% to $98,208 after running into profit-taking ahead of the symbolic $100,000 barrier.Bitcoin has climbed more than 40% since the U.S. election on expectations Trump will loosen the regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies. More

The Australian Prudential (LON:PRU) Regulation Authority (APRA) said though inflation had continued to moderate and the risk of higher interest rates likely receded, there could be “shocks to household incomes” from a slowing labour market.”High household debt is a key vulnerability if adverse economic scenarios came to pass. We also have seen an uptick in non-performing loans, with the potential for further rises, especially if unemployment increases,” APRA Chair John Lonsdale said in a statement.Lonsdale said the risk of financial shocks had persisted over the past year. However, the sources of economic uncertainty have shifted, forcing it to maintain its current macroprudential policy settings.Under the home loan guidelines, the country’s main lenders are required to assess the ability of new borrowers to meet their loan repayments at an interest rate of at least 3 percentage points above the prevailing home loan rate.Australia’s employment growth slowed in October after a strong run, but the jobless rate has stayed low and underlying trends remain relatively healthy, suggesting there is little rush to cut interest rates.The countercyclical capital buffer would remain at 1.0% of risk-weighted assets so that banks have an additional capital cushion for stress situations, APRA said. More

(Reuters) – A look at the day ahead in Asian markets. Emerging market investors will be hoping the final trading week of November brings more joy than the moves they have seen in recent weeks, but it is becoming increasingly difficult for shafts of light to pierce the thickening gloom.America’s divergence with the rest of the world – manifested in the strength of the U.S. dollar, the relentless rally on Wall Street and the significant rise in Treasury yields – is becoming more entrenched by the week. The dollar has risen eight weeks in a row and on Friday hit a two-year high. According to analysts at TD Securities, U.S. funds in the past 13 weeks have captured over 70% of all developed market bond fund inflows and nearly 90% of all DM equity fund inflows.While that will eventually pose issues for the incoming Trump administration in terms of how a soar-away dollar fits with President-elect Donald Trump’s desire for a weaker currency and lower interest rates, Asian and emerging markets are feeling the heat right now.Dedicated EM bond and equity funds posted combined outflows for a sixth straight week, according to Barclays (LON:BARC) analysts, a trend they expect to continue in the coming weeks. TD Securities analysts note that more than half of the EM equity outflow last week was from China alone.In the current environment of heightened geopolitical tensions, any pullback in the dollar will just be seen as a better level to go long, Barclays team reckons.Sentiment towards EM assets is poor. The MSCI emerging market and Asia ex-Japan indexes have fallen in five of the past seven weeks. Time to buy the dip?If so, it would surely have happened last week as these two benchmark indexes came off the back of weekly declines of around 4.5%, their steepest losses since June 2022. But they couldn’t rebound more than 0.5%, an indication that investors are in no hurry to get back in.And looking ahead to next year, strategists at SocGen have cut their emerging market exposure by five percentage points to just 6%, citing the fallout from U.S. onshoring policies as well as relative growth, rates and carry dynamics that all support the US over EM. Market liquidity next week will be lighter than usual with U.S. markets observing the Thanksgiving holiday later in the week. The local calendar is fairly light on top-tier indicators and events too.Highlights include rate decisions from the central banks of New Zealand and South Korea, GDP figures from India and Taiwan, and the latest Chinese purchasing managers index data.All that is later in the week. Monday’s docket includes retail sales and trade figures from New Zealand, inflation from Singapore, and industrial production from Taiwan. Here are key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Monday:- New Zealand retail sales,- Investor reaction to U.S. president-elect Donald Trump’s Treasury Secretary pick- Bank of England’s Lombardelli, Dhingra speak More

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