Aurelia Butler

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Barclays (LON:BARC) analysts on near-total visibility into commodities crossing U.S. borders, said Mexico’s growing prominence as the U.S.’s largest trading partner raises concerns about the impact of potential import duties.The 2019 U.S.-China trade war serves as a reference for possible challenges. Analysts note declines in domestic rail and trucking volumes, as well as contractions in global freight markets, during that period. While tariffs could disrupt trade with Canada and Mexico, trade among North American partners expanded under the prior U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement.Tariff escalation with China would likely hit global freight providers and Western railroads hardest, particularly those reliant on grain exports. Broader actions affecting Europe or North America could disrupt ground-based transportation sectors like trucking and railroads.Consumer goods remain a focal point. Electronics, accounting for one-third of U.S. consumer goods imports, are primarily sourced from China and Mexico. Apparel and footwear imports have shifted significantly from China to Southeast Asia in recent years. Companies like Ralph Lauren (NYSE:RL) have reduced reliance on China, with sourcing dropping to single digits as of late 2024.Industrials also face risks. Sectors heavily reliant on imports from Mexico, China, and Canada include automotive components, HVAC equipment, and power tools. Companies like Stanley Black & Decker (NYSE:SWK) and Rockwell Automation (NYSE:ROK) may see pricing pressures, while net exporters like Honeywell (NASDAQ:HON) and 3M could fare better.European logistics companies, too, have exposure to trans-Atlantic and trans-Pacific trade lanes. Potential disruptions, such as port strikes, could amplify challenges for global supply chains. More

The ban, part of a broader plan to make schools safer, will come into effect early next year, Prime Minister Edi Rama said after meeting with parents’ groups and teachers from across the country.”For one year, we’ll be completely shutting it down for everyone. There will be no TikTok in Albania,” Rama said.Several European countries including France, Germany and Belgium have enforced restrictions on social media use for children. In one of the world’s toughest regulations targeting Big Tech, Australia approved in November a complete social media ban for children under 16.Rama has blamed social media, and TikTok in particular, for fuelling violence among youth in and outside school.His government’s decision comes after a 14-year-old schoolboy was stabbed to death in November by a fellow pupil. Local media had reported that the incident followed arguments between the two boys on social media. Videos had also emerged on TikTok of minors supporting the killing.”The problem today is not our children, the problem today is us, the problem today is our society, the problem today is TikTok and all the others that are taking our children hostage,” Rama said.TikTok said it was seeking “urgent clarity” from the Albanian government.”We found no evidence that the perpetrator or victim had TikTok accounts, and multiple reports have in fact confirmed videos leading up to this incident were being posted on another platform, not TikTok,” a company spokesperson said. More

The backing from Macron, who is visiting Ethiopia after a stop in Djibouti, comes after Ethiopia and International Monetary Fund reached an agreement last month on the second review of a $3.4 billion financing programme.”Thanks to your commitment to the reform programme you are leading, we aim to complete the restructuring of this 3 billion-euro debt in the next few weeks,” Macron said during a joint press conference with Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed.He added that France fully supports the discussions underway with the IMF, highlighting a key meeting scheduled for mid-January. More

Most of the cost consumers pay occur after food leaves the farm. For instance, in the UK, farmers recently received only about a third of the retail price for milk, with processed food margins being even smaller. This means any price declines would depend on cost reductions further down the supply chain.One possible source of savings is labor costs. The adoption of self-service checkouts, for example, effectively reduces staffing expenses, as consumers “work for the retailer for free,” Donovan said.Profit-led inflation, where companies expanded margins to drive price increases, has already plateaued. Analyst points out that U.S. retailers’ profit share of retail GDP grew from 12% in 2019 to 21% today. For prices to fall, retailers would need to actively reduce margins and pass those savings on to consumers.Consumers may eventually accept current price levels as the new norm. Shoppers typically hold a “fair price” in mind for about 18 months before adjusting expectations. Over time, the perception of high prices fades, and the current price point becomes accepted.While food inflation has eased, the structural costs behind food production and distribution make significant price declines challenging. More