Aurelia Butler

MEXICO CITY (Reuters) – Mexico expects its budget deficit next year to come down to 3.9% of GDP as growth increases, Finance Minister Rogelio Ramirez de la O said on Friday, as the government plans hefty spending cuts including to defense and security.Latin America’s second-largest economy is seen expanding between 2% and 3% next year, speeding up from the projected 1.5% to 2.5% growth in 2024, according to the proposed budget.That is significantly higher than the IMF forecast, which sees 2025 growth at 1.3%.The government has been under pressure to narrow the deficit which is expected to close the year at 5.9% of GDP, the highest since the 1980s, while also fulfilling promises to increase welfare programs.The finance ministry said growth was backed by a strong labor market, robust private consumption and high levels of public and private investment.But some analysts said the forecasts appeared overly optimistic.”The rosy estimates make it unlikely that the deficit and debt forecasts are reached,” said Gabriela Siller, an analyst at Banco BASE.Siller highlighted the risk to investment in Mexico posed by the re-election in the U.S. of former President Donald Trump, who has called for tariff increases on Mexican goods, as well as constitutional reforms to Mexico’s judiciary that have spooked investors. Ramirez de la O stressed that spending would look for growth while prioritizing social programs to reduce inequality.The budget proposal will now be debated by lawmakers in Congress, where President Claudia Sheinbaum’s party and its allies hold strong majorities in both chambers.The exchange rate for Mexico’s currency is seen at 18.7 pesos to the U.S. dollar by the end of 2025, significantly stronger than current levels around 20 pesos.The budget assumes an average oil export price of $57.80 per barrel next year. The key oil price is used to estimate a large amount of government revenue.Proposed spending cuts show the Mexican government deprioritizing sectors such as defense, with a 44% cut compared to the last budget, and security which saw a 36% cut. Environmental spending was also down 39% despite expectations that Sheinbaum, a scientist who has worked on climate change, would put greater emphasis on the environment. Spending for state oil company Pemex is shown down 7.5%. The government also expects to transfer 136 billion pesos ($6.69 billion) to Pemex next year to help the heavily indebted firm meet its debt and loan repayments.”In general terms the budget proposal meets expectations: it shows a considerable reduction in the deficit without fueling concern of a potential economic recession,” analysts at CIBanco wrote in a note. The economic outlook is optimistic, the analysts added, which “should be enough to remove one more fear from investors.”Ratings agencies should react to the news in the next week, the CIBanco analysts said, with an outlook downgrade from Fitch possible.Moody’s (NYSE:MCO) Ratings downgraded Mexico’s outlook to “negative” on Thursday. More

The company has struggled as the pandemic, an energy crisis and two-decade-high interest rates failed to unleash a wave of loan defaults, with concerns mounting over Intrum’s net debt, which reached 49.4 billion Swedish crowns ($4.49 billion) at the end of September.Intrum, which last month announced plans to file for the Chapter 11 protection, listed assets and liabilities in the range of $1 billion to $10 billion and estimated its number of creditors in the range of 1,000 to 5,000, according to a court filing.”Today, with support from the overwhelming majority of our key stakeholders, we are making significant progress towards the implementation of our recapitalisation transaction,” said Intrum CEO Andres Rubio.Intrum had won support for a debt restructuring from 73% of its noteholders, enough for a U.S. Chapter 11 procedure but short of the 75% needed to qualify for a simpler process under English law or a 90% threshold for an all-voluntary process.The company said it plans to continue to operate as normal with no disruption to its services and that it has sufficient liquidity to continue operations and execute its business plan throughout the Chapter 11 case. The company said it would remain in possession and control of its assets, retain its existing management team and board of directors during the bankruptcy proceedings.The move by Intrum comes at a time when the debt collection industry in Europe faces challenges, with a significant decline in non-performing loans diminishing the volume of business available for these companies.Intrum, which expects to complete its Chapter 11 proceedings before year-end, also plans to execute a Swedish company reorganisation during the first quarter of 2025, it said on Friday. ($1 = 10.9958 Swedish crowns) More

NEW YORK (Reuters) -A gauge of global stocks was set for its biggest weekly drop in two months and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield hit its highest level in 5-1/2 months on Friday as economic data and comments from Federal Reserve officials suggested a slower pace of interest-rate cuts ahead.Fed Chair Jerome Powell said on Thursday the central bank did not need to rush to lower interest rates due to ongoing economic growth, a solid job market and inflation that remains above its 2% target. The U.S. Commerce Department reported on Friday that retail sales rose 0.4% last month after an upwardly revised 0.8% advance in September. The growth topped the 0.3% rise expected by economists polled by Reuters, after a previously reported 0.4% gain in September.”In the last 48 hours we’ve had some pretty big changes, not just from the election but from economic data that was better than expected and Powell speaking about not having to be as aggressive on interest-rate cuts,” said Adam Rich, deputy chief investment officer for Vaughan Nelson in Houston.”Market expectations for interest-rate cuts have come down materially and also the market is re-adjusting after a pretty bullish reaction to the U.S. election.”In addition, the Labor Department said on Friday that import prices unexpectedly rose 0.3% last month after an unrevised 0.4% decline in September amid higher prices for fuels and other goods. Analysts had expected a decline of 0.1%. Equities had rallied after the U.S. presidential election, as investors gravitated toward assets expected to benefit from President-elect Donald Trump’s policies in his second term after he pledged to impose higher tariffs on imports, reduce taxes and loosen government regulations.But the gains have fizzled in recent days as markets try to calibrate the Fed’s rate-cut trajectory and any legislative policy changes. On Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 305.87 points, or 0.70%, to 43,444.99, the S&P 500 fell 78.55 points, or 1.32%, to 5,870.62 and the Nasdaq Composite fell 427.53 points, or 2.24%, to 18,680.12. Each of the three major indexes closed at record highs on Monday.For the week, the S&P 500 fell 2.08%, the Nasdaq declined 3.15%, and the Dow lost 1.24%. Other Fed officials made comments on Friday that also clouded the picture on the timing and magnitude of more rate cuts.MSCI’s gauge of stocks across the globe slumped 8.53 points, or 1.00%, to 842.67. It was on track for its fourth-straight decline and biggest weekly percentage decline since early September, around 2.4%. In Europe, the STOXX 600 index closed down 0.77% but eked out a small weekly gain, its first in four weeks. Bond yields and the dollar have surged not just on growth prospects but also on concerns that Trump’s policies may rekindle inflation after a long battle against price pressures following the pandemic. In addition, tariffs could lead to increased government borrowing, further ballooning the fiscal deficit and potentially causing the Fed to alter its course of monetary-policy easing.The dollar index, which tracks the U.S. currency against peers including the euro and Japan’s yen, was 0.12% lower on the day to 106.75 with the euro off 0.02% at $1.0528.The greenback had risen for five straight sessions and was poised for its biggest weekly percentage gain since early October.  Against the Japanese yen, the dollar weakened 1.24% to 154.31. Sterling was down 0.45% to $1.2608.Expectations for a 25-basis-point cut at the Fed’s December meeting stood at 58.4% on Friday, down from 72.2% in the prior session, and 85.5% a month ago, according to CME’s FedWatch Tool.The yield on benchmark U.S. 10-year notes rose 1.9 basis points to 4.439% after earlier reaching 4.505%, its highest level since May 31. The yield is up about 13 bps this week and is set for its eighth weekly rise in the past nine.U.S. crude settled down 2.45% to $67.02 a barrel and Brent fell to settle at $71.04 per barrel, down 2.09% on the day, as investors digested a slower Fed rate-cut path and waning Chinese demand.  More