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    Wall Street bets Trump will fuel further dollar gains

    Wall Street is betting the US dollar will make further gains after its recent storming rally, even hitting parity with the euro, in a challenge to President-elect Donald Trump’s stated desire for a weaker currency.The dollar has soared 6.2 per cent since the start of October, its best quarter since the early stages of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate raising campaign in 2022, as markets began to expect the Republican candidate would win November’s election and implement his plans for trade tariffs and tax cuts. More than half of all major banks surveyed by the Financial Times, including Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and UBS, are forecasting the dollar will rise even further next year. Deutsche Bank expects it to reach parity against the euro in 2025, having already strengthened from $1.11 at the start of October to around $1.05.As a result, many fund managers are dismissive of Trump’s chances of being able to weaken the US currency in order to help domestic industry, whatever his rhetoric may be.The idea of a weaker currency under Trump is “a bit of a pie in the sky”, said Sonal Desai, chief investment officer at Franklin Templeton Fixed Income. “It just feels like there are a bunch of contradictory factors. “Most of the policies that he’s talking about so far, which seem definitely to be front and centre, will actually be dollar positive — not dollar negative,” she added.Trump has long held the view that a strong dollar puts undue pressure on the US economy, leading to speculation about whether the incoming administration will act to try to push it lower. “We have a big currency problem,” Trump told Bloomberg Businessweek in July, pointing to the dollar’s strength against the Japanese yen and the Chinese yuan. “That’s a tremendous burden on our companies that try and sell tractors and other things to other places outside of this country,” he added.Trump’s affinity for a weaker dollar was on full display in his first term as president, when he railed against what he deemed unfair currency practices of other countries. His administration even officially labelled China a “currency manipulator” amid a trade war between the two countries.However, his pro-growth agenda and proposed tax cuts — along with his plans for high tariffs on imports from countries including Mexico, Canada and China — are widely expected to stoke domestic inflation after he takes office next month. This could lead to the Fed keeping interest rates higher for longer, which in turn could attract more foreign capital into dollar assets.“The Trump policies are definitively dollar positive,” said Ajay Rajadhyaksha, Barclays’ chair of global research. The bank expects the dollar to strengthen slightly to $1.04 against the euro by the end of next year. That presents a conundrum for the incoming administration, say analysts and investors. The mechanics of any possible solutions — for instance reining in the government’s budget deficit or drawing up a so-called Mar-a-Lago accord in which the US pressures its trading partners into engineering a dollar devaluation — would be highly challenging and could risk tarnishing the dollar’s status as the global reserve currency, they say.The next president cares about “the importance of the primacy of the dollar [and] he gets agitated when other countries talk about currencies other than the dollar for transactions”, said Eric Winograd, chief economist at AllianceBernstein.“The clearest expression of the incoming administration is [for an investor] to be long dollars, and to position for appreciation for the dollar.” Investors and strategists also largely poured cold water on the idea of a “Plaza Accord” style framework, referring to the deal clinched by the Reagan administration in 1985, which saw countries forge a multilateral agreement for foreign-exchange interventions that depreciated the dollar relative to other currencies.Mark Sobel, a former Treasury official, said supporters of a so-called “Mar-a-Lago Accord” may have “woefully exaggerated perceptions about US leverage over China”, with buy-in from Beijing far from secured.“The secret sauce of the Plaza Accord was that US rates were already coming down,” said Brad Setser, a fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and a former Treasury official under President Obama. “The macroeconomic backdrop, with interest rate differentials that favour the dollar versus the euro and the yuan, isn’t conducive to a weak dollar.”Franklin Templeton’s Desai said that while Trump could potentially lean on countries that are managing their exchange rate, he would not be able to control the dollar.“It’s not clear to me that he can actually run around screaming about how the euro is too weak against the dollar,” said Desai. “It isn’t; but more importantly, it’s another currency where the central bank doesn’t control it.”The greenback’s rally has shown signs of stalling in recent weeks, with the Dollar index currently trading at 106.8, below the more than 108 it hit late last month.But while analysts highlight that much of the impact of Trump’s presidency has already been priced in by the market, few see this as a sign that the rally is over or that the Republican’s rhetoric could push the currency lower.“He could try to jawbone the dollar,” said AllianceBernstein’s Winograd. “But at the end of the day, the fundamentals tend to win.” More

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    Where the US-China trade war meets AI hype

    $75 per monthComplete digital access to quality FT journalism with expert analysis from industry leaders. Pay a year upfront and save 20%.What’s included Global news & analysisExpert opinionFT App on Android & iOSFT Edit appFirstFT: the day’s biggest stories20+ curated newslettersFollow topics & set alerts with myFTFT Videos & Podcasts20 monthly gift articles to shareLex: FT’s flagship investment column15+ Premium newsletters by leading expertsFT Digital Edition: our digitised print edition More

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    Bitcoin price today: hits record high over $107k on strategic reserve hopes

    Crypto markets were also cheered by MicroStrategy being added to the Nasdaq 100 index, although overall gains petered out in anticipation of a Federal Reserve meeting this week. Bitcoin rose 1.9% to $106,623.5 by 00:25 ET (05:25 GMT). The world’s biggest cryptocurrency hit a record high of $107,767.6 earlier on Tuesday. Bitcoin’s latest rally came largely after Trump raised the prospect of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, akin to the government’s petroleum reserve, during an interview with CNBC last week. Trump had promised crypto-friendly regulations if elected, with his recent nominations for key cabinet and regulatory positions all harboring pro-crypto stances. But analysts have remained skeptical over the prospect for a Bitcoin reserve, especially on how it could be formed. If Trump were to form the reserve through an executive order, he would have limited funding available from the Treasury to fund more Bitcoin purchases. A future administration could also rescind his order, dissolving the reserve. The formation of a Bitcoin reserve akin to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve will require Congressional approval, Compass Point said in a recent research note. While the Republicans do hold a majority in Congress, an elevated Federal deficit will mean that the government will have to dole out more deficit funding to purchase additional coins- a scenario that will likely be opposed by bipartisan lawmakers, given that trimming the fiscal deficit has become a contentious topic. Compass Point also sees few chances of the Bitcoin Act, a recently proposed legislation that calls for quarterly government purchases of the crypto, will be passed. The Department of Justice holds about 200,000 Bitcoins, which were mostly confiscated from criminals. This stockpile could also be converted into a reserve, although it remains unclear how this will be enacted. Broader crypto prices were less upbeat than Bitcoin, as risk appetite cooled in anticipation of a Fed meeting this week. But most altcoins were sitting on strong gains in recent sessions, tracking Bitcoin’s rally. World no.2 crypto Ether rose 1.1% to $4,011.80, coming back in sight of a record high hit in 2021. World no.3 crypto XRP rose 3.7% to $2.4999.Solana, Cardano, and Polygon fell more than 3% each, while among meme tokens, Dogecoin fell 1.4%. The Fed is widely expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday. But focus will be squarely on the central bank’s outlook on rates, especially in the face of sticky inflation.The central bank could potentially signal a slower pace of easing in 2025, indicating that rates will remain high for longer. Such a scenario could herald some headwinds for crypto prices.  More

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    China would balk at a sweeping Mar-a-Lago accord

    $75 per monthComplete digital access to quality FT journalism with expert analysis from industry leaders. Pay a year upfront and save 20%.What’s included Global news & analysisExpert opinionFT App on Android & iOSFT Edit appFirstFT: the day’s biggest stories20+ curated newslettersFollow topics & set alerts with myFTFT Videos & Podcasts20 monthly gift articles to shareLex: FT’s flagship investment column15+ Premium newsletters by leading expertsFT Digital Edition: our digitised print edition More

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    Bitcoin (BTC) Back at ATH: Next Target, Dogecoin (DOGE) Volume Disappears, Ethereum (ETH) Hits $4,000, But There’s a Catch

    As Bitcoin open interest hits an all-time high of $67 billion, the spike to $106,000 is a blatant indication of heightened interest in derivatives markets. Because leveraged positions magnify both upward and downward movements, elevated open interest can increase volatility, even though it usually indicates strong speculative activity. The next significant resistance level for Bitcoin after this remarkable ATH is probably around $110,000. There may be a lot of selling pressure at this psychological barrier as investors try to lock in profits. The next target would move toward $120,000 if Bitcoin keeps up its bullish momentum and breaks through $110,000, helped by growing institutional inflows and widespread adoption.Bitcoin has solid support on the downside close to the $98,000 mark, where buyers have defended important levels in the past. If a brief retracement happens, the 50 EMA on the daily chart, which is presently trading at about $97,000, will offer an extra layer of support for Bitcoin. The market as a whole has risen since Bitcoin’s return to its all-time high, which has increased hope for altcoins.In the past, as investors look for chances for larger returns, new highs for Bitcoin have caused capital to shift into alternative assets. This situation might recur, with Ethereum and other significant altcoins profiting from the optimism surrounding Bitcoin.Additionally, there is less volatility, which indicates a narrower trading range. This may indicate that DOGE is preparing for its next major move by consolidating. Although recent attempts to retest the upper boundary have failed, the asset is still within a parallel ascending channel. A rebound in buying volume and increased bullish sentiment are necessary for Dogecoin to break through the $0.42 resistance and make a significant upward breakthrough.On the down side, the price may test the next critical support, which is located around $0.34, if DOGE is unable to maintain its current support level. The 50 EMA, a frequently watched indicator that frequently serves as a buffer during retracements is in line with this region. The price may be pulled toward the $0.27 level, where the 200 EMA offers longer-term support, if it drops below this zone, which could lead to additional selling pressure.The current low-volume environment advises investors to exercise caution. The mood of the market as a whole, and whether volume increases in the days ahead, will probably determine breakouts in either direction. Will a push toward $0.50, a psychological level that traders are keeping a close eye on, be possible if Dogecoin can regain its momentum and break above $0.42?The fact that the 26 EMA is still functioning as dynamic support suggests that Ethereum is still rising. Even so, the volume profile indicates a drop in buying pressure, indicating a lack of conviction to make a sharp move above $4,000. The recent overextended rallies in which Ethereum saw steady gains without a notable correction are primarily to blame for this retracement. As ETH tests this resistance level, traders are probably halting to reevaluate. If Ethereum is unable to rise above $4,000, it may retrace to the 50 EMA, which is the closest support zone at $3,677. Whether Ethereum can continue on its upward trajectory or undergo additional consolidation will depend on this level. If Ethereum breaks through the $4,000 barrier with a significant volume increase, the next target could be between $4,200 and $4,500, where momentum might pick up even more speed. But a greater retracement toward $3,300, a solid support zone that coincides with the 200 EMA, might be possible if there is a breakdown below $3,677.Although Ethereum’s price action is still encouraging, overall, more buying volume is needed for a distinct breakout. Investors should closely monitor whether bulls can withstand pressure in the upcoming days and keep an eye on the $4,000 resistance. Despite its recent bullish rally, Ethereum’s recovery is still in its infancy until then.This article was originally published on U.Today More

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    Dollar supported as bets on 2025 rate cuts evaporate

    The friendless euro, which is heading for a calendar-year drop of nearly 5% on the dollar, was not far from the year’s lows at $1.0518.The gap between U.S. and German ten-year yields is 216 basis points and has widened nearly 70 bps in three months.The yen was on the back foot for a seventh consecutive session – and marginally weaker at 154.17 per dollar in morning trade – as markets have pared chances of a Japanese rate hike this week and see a move in January as more likely.The Federal Reserve announces its interest rate decision on Wednesday and interest rate futures imply a 94% chance of a hike, even as services-sector activity leapt to a three-year high according to an S&P Global purchasing managers survey.The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow indicator is running at 3.3% for the fourth quarter and the strength of the economy has been lifting yields and supporting the dollar as traders figure this week’s expected cut may be the last for a while.After a cut on Wednesday, markets see about a 37% chance there will be either one 25 bp cut or none at all through the whole of 2025, according to the CME FedWatch tool, up from about 21% a week earlier. “I think the Fed will now be worried about a resurgence of inflation as an unknown policy mix and sticky prices create many paths for inflation to make a comeback in 2025,” said Brent Donnelly, president at Spectra Markets.”And therefore I think they will signal a very cautious approach going forward and lean on language that suggests concerns about inflation and a higher neutral rate.”Besides the Fed, the Bank of Japan, Bank of England and Norges Bank meet this week and are expected to stand pat on Thursday, while the Riksbank is seen cutting rates, perhaps by 50 basis points.Sterling bounced on Monday as a survey of business activity pointed to price rises in Britain while labour data is due on Tuesday, with upward pressure on wages seen adding to the case for caution from the central bank. Sterling last bought $1.2695.The Canadian dollar, squeezed by falling interest rates and the risk of U.S. tariffs, sank to a 4-1/2 year low on Monday as the sudden resignation of Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland put an unpopular government under more pressure.The Australian and New Zealand dollars are pinned near the year’s lows, though were spared any further selling on the latest weak Chinese economic indicators on Monday as markets bet that government spending will ride to the rescue. [AUD/]The Aussie was last steady at $0.6373 and the kiwi inched up to $0.5792. New Zealand increased its bond issuance forecast for the next few years and long-term yields rose. China’s yuan was under gentle pressure at 7.2918 in offshore trade, as dour expectations for Chinese economic growth pushed 10-year bond yields to record lows. More

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    Canada finance minister quits after clash with Trudeau over Trump tariffs, spending

    OTTAWA (Reuters) – Canadian Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland quit on Monday after clashing with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on issues including how to handle possible U.S. tariffs, dealing an unexpected blow to an already unpopular government.Freeland said she was quitting in the wake of a meeting last Friday with Trudeau, who asked her to take on a lesser post after the two had been arguing for weeks over spending.Public Safety Minister Dominic LeBlanc – a member of Trudeau’s inner circle – was quickly named finance minister of the minority Liberal government.The resignation of Freeland, 56, who also served as deputy prime minister, is one of the biggest crises Trudeau has faced since taking power in November 2015. It also leaves him without a key ally when he is on track to lose the next election to the official opposition Conservatives.A Liberal source said Trudeau wanted Freeland to serve as minister without portfolio dealing with Canada-U.S. relations in name only – in effect a major demotion.Trudeau met the national Liberal caucus later on Monday – including Freeland – but legislators declined to say afterwards what had happened.Labour Minister Steven MacKinnon said there had been a good and frank conversation but gave no details.Trudeau later told a Liberal Party fundraiser in Ottawa that being prime minister was the privilege of his life.”It’s obviously been an eventful day. It has not been an easy day,” he said.The potential threat to his future was underlined when a top member of the opposition New Democrats, who have been helping keep the Liberals in power, said the party would vote to bring down Trudeau next year unless he quit.”If we’re coming up to a straight up non-confidence motion at the end of February, early March, that’s one of the tools that we have,” House of Commons leader for the NDP Peter Julian told the Canadian Broadcasting Corp.”We simply cannot continue like this,” he said, adding he expected Trudeau to have resigned by then.Party leader Jagmeet Singh had earlier been less equivocal when asked about bringing down Trudeau, whom he insisted should resign.Freeland quit just hours before she was due to present a fall economic update to parliament. The document showed the minority Liberal government had run up a 2023/24 budget deficit of C$61.9 billion, much higher than predicted.Trudeau can be toppled if the opposition parties unite against him on a vote of no confidence, though that cannot happen until next year.”Will the Prime Minister stay on? I think he will, but he’s certainly been seriously threatened … it could be that this is the event that will push him over the edge,” said Jonathan Malloy, a political science professor at Carleton University in Ottawa.Parliament is due to break for Christmas on Tuesday and not return until Jan. 27.Domestic media reports said Freeland and Trudeau had clashed over a government proposal for temporary tax breaks and other spending measures.”For the last number of weeks, you and I have found ourselves at odds over the best path forward for Canada,” Freeland said in a letter to Trudeau posted on X.Freeland said the threat of new U.S. tariffs represented a grave threat.”That means keeping our fiscal powder dry today, so we have the reserves we may need for a tariff war. That means eschewing costly political gimmicks, which we can ill afford,” she wrote.Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre said the government was spiraling out of control.”We cannot accept this kind of chaos, division, weakness, while we’re staring down the barrel of a 25% tariff from our biggest trading partner,” he told reporters.’LEADERSHIP CRISIS'”This will likely trigger a leadership crisis within the Liberal caucus … (it) is politically and personally devastating for Trudeau,” said Nik Nanos, founder of the Nanos Research polling firm.Polls show the Liberals are set to be crushed in an election that must be held by late October 2025.Freeland served as trade minister and then foreign minister before taking over the finance portfolio in August 2020. As minister, she oversaw the massive government spending campaign to deal with the damage done by COVID.Trudeau has been under pressure for months from Liberal legislators alarmed by the party’s poor polling numbers, in part due to unhappiness over high prices, and the loss of two safe parliamentary seats in special elections.The party is due to contest another special election in the province of British Columbia later on Monday.’BOMBSHELL’ DECISION”This is quite a bombshell,” said Nelson Wiseman, political science professor at University of Toronto. “I think the problem the Liberals have is that they have no mechanism to remove Trudeau. Only a full blown caucus revolt could do that.”Canada’s 10-year note yields climbed to their highest level since Nov. 28. They were last up 4.2 basis points at 3.2%. The Canadian dollar weakened to a four and a half year low at 1.4268 per U.S. dollar before reversing course.When Trump came to power in 2017 he vowed to tear up the trilateral free trade treaty with Canada and Mexico. Freeland played a large role in helping renegotiate the pact and saving Canada’s economy, which is heavily reliant on the United States.Although tensions between prime ministers and finance ministers are not unusual – Trudeau’s first finance minister quit in 2020 in a clash over spending – the level of invective in Freeland’s letter was remarkable by Canadian standards.Freeland left the same day as Housing Minister Sean Fraser announced he was resigning for family reasons. Another six ministers have either already quit or announced they will not be running again in the next election.Before entering politics in 2013, Freeland worked as a journalist and in senior editorial roles with several media companies, including the Financial Times, the Globe and Mail, and Reuters where she worked from 2010 to 2013. More

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    US Senate advances massive defense bill, despite transgender provision

    WASHINGTON (Reuters) -The U.S. Senate on Monday voted overwhelmingly to advance an $895 billion bill setting policy for the Pentagon toward passage as soon as Tuesday, which would send it to the White House for President Joe Biden to sign into law.The tally was 83 to 12 in favor of advancing the National Defense Authorization Act, or NDAA, to a vote on final passage, comfortably over the 60 needed in the 100-member Senate. The bill advanced despite the inclusion of a controversial provision aimed at banning some gender-affirming care for transgender children of service members.This year’s NDAA authorizes a record $895 billion in annual military spending, covering provisions on purchases of military equipment and boosting competitiveness with archrivals including China and Russia.The 1,800-page bill also focuses on improving the quality of life for the U.S. military.It authorizes a 14.5% pay increase for the lowest-ranking troops, and 4.5% for the rest of the force, higher than usual. It also authorizes the construction of military housing, schools and childcare centers.The bill bans the military health program, TRICARE, from covering gender-affirming care for the transgender children of service members if it could risk sterilization.Including the provision in the bill setting policy for the Department of Defense underscored how transgender issues have become a focus in U.S. politics. President-elect Donald Trump and many other Republicans blasted Democrats for supporting transgender rights during the 2024 election campaign, which ended with Republicans keeping control of the House and taking control of the Senate and White House starting next month.The fiscal 2025 NDAA is a compromise between Democrats and Republicans in the House and Senate, reached during weeks of negotiations behind closed doors. It did not include some other Republican proposals on social issues, including an effort to prohibit TRICARE from covering gender-affirming care for transgender adults and a measure that would have reversed the Pentagon’s policy of funding travel for abortion for troops stationed in states where the procedure is banned. The massive bill is one of the few major pieces of legislation Congress passes every year and lawmakers take pride in having passed it annually for more than six decades.The NDAA authorizes Pentagon programs, but does not fund them. Congress must separately pass funding in a spending bill for the fiscal year ending in September 2025. That bill is unlikely to be enacted before March. More