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    India expects food inflation to slow in coming months, government report says

    “A bumper kharif (summer crop) harvest is expected to lower food inflation in the coming months,” the report said. India’s retail inflation surged to a 14-month high in October, driven by high vegetable prices.A favorable monsoon, adequate reservoir levels and higher minimum support prices are likely to boost winter crop sowing and production, it said.”Early November trends signaled moderation in key food prices, though geopolitical factors may continue to impact domestic inflation and supply chains,” it said.The report said many high-frequency indicators of economic activity in India have shown a rebound in October after a brief period of softening momentum.Persistently high inflation has squeezed India’s middle class budgets, slowing urban consumption in the last few months and threatening brisk economic growth. India expects the economy to grow at 6.5%-7% in the financial year that ends in March.India’s export recovery may encounter challenges due to softening demand in developed markets, the report said, with trade in services sustaining momentum.”Geopolitical developments and policy decisions of the next administration in the United States will determine the course of trade and capital flows,” it said. More

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    Scott Bessent, retail sector, UniCredit’s purchase – what’s moving markets

    President-elect Donald Trump nominated fund manager Scott Bessent to be his incoming US Treasury Secretary on Friday, and the decision has been generally received favorably given he’s seen as a mainstream candidate rather than an unknown.Bessent has spent his career in finance, working for macro investment billionaire George Soros and noted short seller Jim Chanos as well as founding Key Square Group, a global macro investment firm. He was an economic advisor for Trump’s 2024 presidential campaign. In an interview with the Wall Street Journal, published on Sunday, Bessent indicated he will prioritize delivering on election tax cut pledges, including making Trump’s first term tax cuts permanent, as well as eliminating taxes on tips, social-security benefits and overtime pay.Bessent said, in the interview, that he would also focus on enacting tariffs, although has also said they should be objectives “layered in gradually”, while the levels of tariffs being mentioned, such as 60% on Chinese goods, were “maximalist” positions that might be watered down.In various media appearances he has talked of cutting the budget deficit to 3% of GDP and dealing with the mountain of U.S. debt, largely by slashing spending.That said, the amount of discretionary spending there is to cut is trivial compared with the essential stuff such as Medicare and defence.US bond yields fell after his appointment, dragging the dollar lower, while stock index futures climbed on Wall Street.US stock futures rose Monday, continuing the previous week’s positive tone ahead of Thursday’s Thanksgiving holiday. By 03:45 ET (08:45 GMT), the Dow futures contract was up 260 points, or 0.6%, S&P 500 futures climbed 25 points, or 0.4%, and Nasdaq 100 futures rose by 90 points, or 0.4%.The main benchmarks posted positive weeks last week, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average advancing around 2% to finish at a record close. The broad-based S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite each rose about 1.7%.The main economic focus this week will be Wednesday’s Personal Consumption Expenditures Price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge of underlying inflation.Recent stubborn inflation data has seen the Fed take a cautious stance towards further interest rate cuts.While the US is due to release November data on both consumer and producer prices before the Fed’s next meeting on Dec. 17-18 this will be the final PCE report before then.The retail sector will be in the spotlight this holiday-shortened week, with the US Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday and the following Black Friday marking the start of the holiday shopping season.A fresh batch of retail earnings are also due in the coming days, starting later Monday with Bath & Body Works (NYSE:BBWI), while Best Buy (NYSE:BBY), Macy’s (NYSE:M), Nordstrom (NYSE:JWN) and Urban Outfitters (NASDAQ:URBN) all due to report this week.Earnings results from two major retailers last week gave two very different perspectives. On Tuesday, Walmart (NYSE:WMT) raised its annual sales and profit forecast for the third consecutive time, while Target (NYSE:TGT) shares dropped sharply on Wednesday after it forecast holiday-quarter comparable sales and profit below estimates.Investors are watching the extent to which inflation will weigh on buying habits, with consumer spending accounting for more than two-thirds of US economic activity. The European banking sector received more merger and acquisition news Monday, after Italy’s UniCredit (BIT:CRDI) launched a surprise all-share offer worth €10 billion ($11 billion) for smaller domestic rival Banco BPM (BIT:BAMI).The deal would, if completed, merge two of Italy’s largest lenders, with UniCredit stating that the purchase would allow the bank to “further strengthen its role as a leading pan-European banking group.”UniCredit is also pursuing a potential deal with Germany’s Commerzbank (ETR:CBKG), although the German government has yet to bless the potential union.UniCredit said on Monday the buyout offer for Banco BPM was independent of its proposed investment in Commerzbank.Banco BPM bought 5% in bailed-out mid-sized rival Monte dei Paschi (MPS) earlier this month, a move seen as potentially paving the way for an eventual combination as the state pulls out of MPS entirely.The European banking sector has been considered ripe for consolidation for years, with cash-rich UniCredit often cited as a possible acquirer.Crude prices retreated Monday, handing back some of last week’s hefty gains, on increasing hopes for a ceasefire in the troubled MIddle East, an oil-rich region.By 03:45 ET, the US crude futures (WTI) dropped 0.7% to $70.73 a barrel, while the Brent contract fell 0.7% to $74.14 a barrel.Israel and Hezbollah were close to signing a ceasefire agreement to end hostilities in Lebanon, Axios reported on Sunday, citing Israeli and US officials. Israel daily The Times of Israel also reported that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was holding high-level talks over the deal, which was brokered by US officials. The prospect of an Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire points to lessening tensions in the Middle East, presenting a lower risk premium for oil. Both contracts gained around 6% last week, notching their biggest weekly gains since late September to reach their highest settlement levels since Nov. 7. 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    Bitcoin price today: steadies after weekend losses as $100k remains elusive

    Bitcoin hit a series of record highs last week, rising as far as $99,617.4 in an extended rally after Donald Trump won the 2024 presidential elections in early-November.But the crypto failed to breach the coveted $100,000 level, falling sharply over the weekend amid some profit-taking and as investors sought more concrete cues on Trump’s plans for crypto.Bitcoin traded down 0.3% at $97,880.9 by 00:10 ET (05:10 GMT). The crypto had fallen as far as $96,000 over the weekend. Trump on Friday nominated prominent investor Scott Bessent as his pick for Treasury Secretary.Bessent, who founded the hedge fund Key Square Group, had expressed enthusiasm over Trump’s backing of crypto during an interview with Fox News in July. Bessent- who has donated to Democrats in the past- is also viewed as a more moderate choice within Trump’s administration, and is expected to help push for tax reforms and a less strict crackdown on trade. Cantor Fitzgerald in talks for Bitcoin lending program with Tether- Bloomberg Trump’s pick for Commerce Secretary, Howard Lutnick, has also expressed support for the crypto industry, with his firm Canton Fitzgerald having helped stablecoin giant Tether manage its holdings of U.S. Treasuries. Lutnick’s Cantor Fitzgerald is in talks to deepen its ties with Tether and is preparing a $2 billion project to lend dollars against Bitcoin to clients, Bloomberg reported on Sunday. The firm is discussing receiving support from Tether to fund the project, which could potentially be worth over tens of billions of dollars.Reuters reported that Tether was seeking to use part of its profits generated in the past years in different avenues. Broader crypto prices also retreated on Monday, extending losses from the weekend. World no.2 crypto Ether fell 0.9% to $3,385.74.XRP fell 0.6% to $1.4547, cooling after logging strong gains last week. XRP had shot up after Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler said he will resign in January as Trump takes the presidency. Gensler’s resignation brewed optimism that the SEC will adopt a less strict stance on crypto regulation, especially under a Trump presidency. XRP was the chief beneficiary of this trade, given that the SEC has a long-running lawsuit against Ripple, who issues the altcoin. SOL, ADA, and MATIC fell between 0.5% and 3.3%. Among meme tokens, Dogecoin fell 2.4%.  More

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    Dogecoin (DOGE) Begins $1 Wave Surge, Bitcoin’s (BTC) Trouble at $100,000: Details, Solana (SOL) to Get Tested in 3 Days

    However, some trading volume trends and chart patterns suggest that a possible reversal might also be imminent. Outstanding trading volumes have bolstered DOGE’s recent rally, indicating that both institutional and retail investors are very interested in the company. While the coin’s rise above the $0.40 mark indicates bullish momentum, the chart’s emerging pattern raises questions about a possible reversal. An important resistance level to keep an eye on is the $0.45 zone as the long upper wicks on recent daily candles indicate selling pressure at higher levels.The $0.35 support level may serve as a buffer on the downside if the reversal picks up steam. Bulls must defend this level because it corresponds with recent periods of consolidation. The increase in trading volume is one of the main features of Dogecoin’s current setup.A discernible drop in volume may be a sign of a reversal even though higher volume during price rallies usually indicates strong buyer interest. These patterns frequently indicate waning momentum particularly if the price finds it difficult to overcome resistance levels. Whale activity, which has been a major factor in Dogecoin’s previous rallies, is still very important.Hedging against downside risks or preparing for another push higher are two possible reasons why large transactions indicate that major holders are actively positioning themselves.Bears appear to be exploiting the psychological significance of the level as evidenced by the current consolidation below $100,000. It is clear from the recent candles with long upper wicks that sellers have been actively protecting this zone. This means that whenever Bitcoin gets closer to the mark there are more sell orders. The volume is one of the main markers of market hesitancy.Even though trading activity is still high, it is beginning to level off. A significant increase in volume fueled by confidence from institutional and retail participants alike is usually necessary for a breakout above $10,0000. In the absence of this, the price could revert to lower support levels. The $90,000 and $85,000 critical support levels are highlighted on the chart. A retracement to these levels might give bulls another opportunity to regroup if Bitcoin is unable to break above $100,000 with conviction.The price may rise to $110,000 and higher if Bitcoin breaks $100,000 on the other hand, as this could lead to a surge in short covering and new buying interest. The role of the wider market cannot be disregarded. The behavior of Bitcoin frequently resembles that of conventional financial markets especially during pivotal price fluctuations. Global markets are scheduled to open on Monday and the enhanced liquidity may be crucial in determining whether Bitcoin can break through the $100,000 barrier.The price might move toward the $280–$300 range if there is a bounce here, which would give it the momentum it needs for another leg up. The asset may experience difficulties if it breaks below this trendline, which would cause a retracement to important support levels of $216 or even $184. One of the most important things to keep an eye on is the volume. The probability of a breakdown would increase if the volume decreased during this test, indicating waning buyer interest.Since the RSI (Relative Strength Index) is still high, it appears that SOL is overbought. Since a corrective phase frequently follows this condition, testing this trendline is even more important. In the event that Solana is unable to maintain the trendline, $216 will be the next important support. This level may draw buyers hoping to profit from the retracement because it correlates with earlier consolidation zones. But a deeper drop might result from breaking below $216, which might push the price down to $184 or less.This article was originally published on U.Today More

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    Frantic diplomacy rescued fraught UN climate deal from collapse

    The $300bn deal for rich countries to help poorer nations struck at the UN climate summit early Sunday was only reached through frantic diplomacy, including a high-level meeting the night before in a VIP room of the Baku stadium.The meeting of ministers from both wealthy and developing nations included Colombian climate minister Susana Muhamad; Kenya’s Ali Mohamed; Brazil’s Ana Toni, Ed Miliband from the UK and Germany’s Jennifer Morgan, those aware of the late night Friday gathering told the FT.It took place as the countries gathered for the UN COP29 summit remained gridlocked over the size and shape of a landmark deal to provide money to developing countries hit by the worst effects of climate change. But it also came against the backdrop of a separate battle for the inclusion of an explicit reference to next steps in the transition away from fossil fuels agreed at the last year’s UN summit in Dubai, to strengthen the pledge. This was blocked by Saudi Arabia and Russia, and was only given an indirect reference in the final outcome, maintaining the status quo. However, fossil fuel reliant nations failed in their push for a reference to “transition fuels” — taken to mean gas — when the overall agenda item was postponed after objections from a Latin American and Caribbean nations alliance, Switzerland, the Maldives, Fiji, Canada and Australia.Ana Toni, Brazil’s national secretary for climate change, and UK energy secretary Ed Miliband were a key duo in shepherding the COP29 agreement More

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    Heathrow’s new biggest shareholder backs airport expansion

    Unlock the Editor’s Digest for freeRoula Khalaf, Editor of the FT, selects her favourite stories in this weekly newsletter.Heathrow’s incoming largest shareholder has thrown its weight behind expanding the UK’s largest airport, and said it would back management if it tried to build a third runway.French private equity group Ardian agreed to buy a 23 per cent stake in Heathrow in June, part of a £3.3bn shake-up in ownership at the airport which also saw Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund buy a stake.With the deal expected to complete before the end of next month, Ardian’s head of infrastructure Mathias Burghardt told the Financial Times that Heathrow needed to expand in the coming years.“Growth is in our DNA. We don’t invest in companies, or in infrastructure if they don’t have a growth plan,” he said. Heathrow’s chief executive Thomas Woldbye is within months expected to announce the airport’s first expansion plan since the pandemic, which will prioritise small-scale improvements to increase passenger numbers. He told an industry conference on Monday that Heathrow hoped to make a final decision on whether to press ahead with the planning process for a third runway by the end of 2025. But the only way to significantly increase capacity would be to build a new runway, a politically contentious topic that has remained unresolved for decades. Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer’s cabinet is split over whether to back a third runway, the FT reported this month. Burghardt backed Woldbye’s plan, and said he would then support a third runway if there was “consensus” behind it.“The first thing is to grow the airport within the existing footprint, and then . . . how can we ensure growth beyond the existing footprint?”“If management designs growth, which could be a third runway . . . and if there is consensus, first with the government, but beyond that, other stakeholders, we certainly will support it for sure,” he said. But amid rising concerns about the difficulty of decarbonising aviation, Burghardt said any plans would be contingent on a credible plan to lower emissions. “Companies which are not prepared for that will really have problems in the future, and that will limit their growth,” he said. Asked whether Ardian would be willing to part-fund any big expansion — Heathrow’s third runway project was costed at about £14bn in 2019 — he replied: “Without being specific to Heathrow, our job is always to put [in] more money . . . the more capex, the more growth.”Ardian’s deal for a stake in Heathrow was followed this month by the Canadian pension investor PSP’s acquisition of the operator of Aberdeen, Glasgow and Southampton airports for £1.5bn, marking the latest investment in the British travel sector following the pandemic.Burghardt said that while travel had rebounded since the pandemic, it remained “difficult to say what is normal” as the mix of passengers had shifted since video meetings had replaced some business trips.He also said the UK remained an attractive market for investment, even amid fears that struggles at Britain’s largest water utility Thames Water would deter private funds from backing other UK infrastructure.“We’ve been investing in the UK for a period of years,” he said. “I really believe the UK has demonstrated the strength of its institutions.”However, he said that when Ardian sold its stake in the UK’s Anglian Water in 2014 the firm was “not convinced regulatory dynamics would evolve positively” in that sector, but that when it came to Heathrow and the airport sector “we believed that the existing regulation is a good regulation overall”. More

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    It’s prices stupid: how inflation targeting has failed electorates

    Unlock the Editor’s Digest for freeRoula Khalaf, Editor of the FT, selects her favourite stories in this weekly newsletter.The writer is co-founder and chief investment strategist at Absolute Strategy Research‘It’s prices stupid’ was the key lesson that policymakers and markets should take from the US election, as voters appeared to judge the economy through the prism of high prices, rather than falling inflation, or low unemployment. It may be time for them to revisit their policy mandates.Economic concerns remained central to the US election for 80 per cent of Republican voters, second only to immigration. This was despite low unemployment, inflation heading towards 2 per cent, and expectations of lower interest rates. The main issue was the pandemic price shock was not transitory. Despite inflation moderating, as post-pandemic supply pressures eased, a common theme was how voters were being squeezed by elevated price levels, with real wages failing to keep pace. Incumbent administrations in the UK and France were also ushered from office due, in part, to similar economic concerns about prices.In the US, the prices of goods that households regularly purchase (food and petrol) were 28 per cent above January 2020 levels (18 per cent above where they should have been in a 2 per cent inflation world). In the UK, food, drink and energy prices are 30 per cent higher, while in the Eurozone, the European Central Bank’s ‘Frequent Out Of Pocket Purchases’ index is up 26 per cent since the pandemic. It’s no wonder people are hurting.Some content could not load. Check your internet connection or browser settings.There are several lessons policymakers might take away from these political outcomes. For a start, headline inflation matters to people more than “core” — current policy may be targeting the wrong variable. Central banks may feel they are better able to influence “core” prices with their policy, but by looking through shocks in food and energy prices, they are ignoring the prices that matter for most people. If policy had sought to bring demand and supply into equilibrium earlier, we might have seen lower peak inflation, less price persistence, and less political turmoil.But a more fundamental change may be required. Many big central banks have implicitly returned to setting monetary policy with reference to Taylor Rule models, where interest rates are anchored around how far the economy is from the inflation target, and the degree of slack in the economy. However, these elections suggest voters would prefer more price-level stability, over low inflation rates, or full employment.If that’s the case, then central banks might want to revisit an alternative policy framework; the idea of price-level targeting, as proposed by Professor Michael Woodford of Columbia University. In this framework, policy targets a constant rise in the level of prices over time, so that if prices rise above that rate, policy has to respond sufficiently to reverse any price level divergence. This contrasts with the current framework, which can celebrate a return to 2 per cent inflation, even though the target has been missed for multiple years, and has left households with major losses in real purchasing power. By encouraging early action to limit the initial divergence from the desired price levels, this framework can, theoretically, deliver gains for consumers.Some content could not load. Check your internet connection or browser settings.Another issue with the current inflation-targeting regime is that for economies with large services sectors, the centrality of labour costs to service-sector inflation means that squeezing real labour incomes has been a key part of achieving the inflation targets. Indeed, ever since Paul Volcker as Federal Reserve chair started bearing down on inflation from the end of the 1970s, the majority of the gains in productivity have been captured by companies, not labour. Inflation targeting was supposed to boost productivity through reducing uncertainty and encouraging investment. But trend productivity has actually slowed since the early 1980s. Companies boosted profits, not growth, by cutting investment, increasing dividends, and prioritising buybacks.Because inflation targeting has boosted returns to capital over labour, it may have also contributed to increasing income inequality. This disparity has probably played a role in the rise in populism in many countries.In conclusion, this year’s elections have been an implicit rejection of the current monetary framework. Despite low unemployment, elevated price levels have squeezed real wages for many, fuelling discontent. If politicians want to get re-elected, and central banks want to remain relevant to society, it may well be time for them to revisit their mandates. More