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Responding to questions from a reporter about the memecoin, Trump confirmed that he had launched the memecoin, but claimed to not have too much knowledge over having personally benefited from its performance.“I don’t know about benefited, I don’t where it is, I don’t know much about it other than I launched it, I heard it was very successful,” Trump said in a White House event on Tuesday. When responding to a reporter telling him that he had made “several billion dollars” from the memecoin, Trump said “several billion? That’s peanuts for these guys,” although it was not immediately clear who he was referring to. $TRUMP launched to trader fanfare last week, coming just days before Trump’s inauguration on Monday. The token surged to a market capitalization of over $14 billion at its peak, netting Trump, who is a major holder, billions in paper gains.But the memcoin swung wildly in volatile trade, raising some questions of potential price manipulation, especially amid rumors that Trump had sold some of his holdings. $TRUMP steadied at $41 after racing to a peak of nearly $80 after its launch. But the memecoin’s success, and the subsequent, less positively received launch of $MELANIA, spurred trader concerns over the ethical issue of Trump using his influence to sway speculative markets to his favor.Trump also made scant mention of crypto policy in his first two days in office, denting hopes that he would immediately dole out pro-crypto policies through presidential decrees. Bitcoin- which had surged to record highs over $109,000 ahead of Trump’s inauguration- tumbled from these peaks in volatile trade. Broader crypto markets also saw increased volatility after the launch of $TRUMP. More
Increased network activity and intense speculative interest in meme coins based on the Solana blockchain helped SOL reach its most recent peak of $295. But the momentum stalled, and SOL is currently trading close to its 50 EMA at $238. A breakdown below this level, which is currently at $240, could expose SOL to additional downside risks, but it also acts as immediate support. The Solana meme coin rally played a major role in its bullish run, drawing speculative inflows to projects that took advantage of Solana’s low fees and high throughput. Bearish pressure is being created, though, as the same liquidity that drove SOL higher is now leaving as the hype fades.Because of this change, Solana is now vulnerable, underscoring the dangers of relying too much on transient speculation. Recovering the $260 resistance and holding the $240 support level are necessary for SOL to get back on track. Restoring bullish momentum with a move above $260 might retest the $280-$295 range. On the downside, if SOL is unable to hold onto $240, it may fall toward $213, which is in line with the 100 EMA and a crucial support area from the consolidation in December.The slowdown in institutional inflows is one important contributing factor. Institutional investors made a substantial contribution to Bitcoin’s recent surge. But as the market euphoria wanes, this momentum seems to be fading. Additionally, the general enthusiasm for meme coins and altcoins that drove this rally’s early phases has diminished. Because of this, overall liquidity and inflow into Bitcoin have lagged, resulting in a period of consolidation for the cryptocurrency. Bitcoin is currently trading just above its 50 EMA, which has served as a support level in this upward trend. Even so, the trading volume is down, indicating that traders are unsure of their next course of action. The fact that the RSI is still neutral suggests that there are neither overbought nor oversold conditions at this time, but it also suggests that there is not enough momentum to move higher.It will require fresh buying pressure for Bitcoin to exit this range, possibly brought on by a resurgence of institutional interest or a fresh market catalyst. Bitcoin runs the risk of retracing to retest lower support levels like $98,000, which corresponds to the 100 EMA if it is unable to clear $105,000.The general enthusiasm of the market has also been affected by the slowdown in the meme coin’s performance. Earlier in the rally, Bitcoin benefited indirectly from the influx of new players brought in by the meme coin’s explosive growth. Now that there is less speculative activity, Bitcoin is in a more difficult situation.Since Dogecoin has dropped 20% from its most recent peak, investors are beginning to wonder where the meme coin will go. There are still grounds for optimism regarding DOGE’s overall market position and possible recovery in the upcoming weeks, notwithstanding the decline. During its most recent rally, DOGE reached a high of $0.50 before dropping to a crucial support level close to $0.36. This retracement is consistent with the market as a whole cooling off after a period of increased volatility, especially in the meme coin space. With its current price hovering around $0.38, DOGE is exhibiting stabilization as it continues to hold above the rising trendline that has sustained its rise since October.Additionally DOGE’s relationship to Bitcoin and general market patterns implies that any recovery in the price of BTC may have a favorable effect on Dogecoin. If the general mood of the market improves, DOGE may gain from fresh inflows as long as institutional interest in cryptocurrencies remains stable.In the near future, Dogecoin’s price is probably going to settle into a new base around the $0.36-0.40 range. The next significant price movement may be indicated by a breakout or breakdown from the $0.40 resistance and $0.36 support levels, so traders should keep a careful eye on these levels.This article was originally published on U.Today More
Speaking at a White House event on his second day in office, Trump said he was considering the Chinese tariffs on concerns over the flow of illicit drugs, specifically fentanyl, from China to Mexico and Canada, and into the U.S. He raised the possibility of tariffs against Mexico and Canada on similar grounds, of around 25%. Trump also raised the possibility of tariffs against the European Union, on the grounds that they had trade imbalances with the U.S. Trump had campaigned on promises of steep tariffs to further the U.S.’ trade dominance, and had threatened to impose 60% tariffs on China and potentially 100% tariffs on Mexico and Canada. But he did not impose any tariffs through executive orders on his first day in office, as widely expected. The 10% tariffs threatened by Trump against China are also much lower than what he had promised when campaigning. More
HONG KONG (Reuters) -After numerous measures to resolve a liquidity crisis in the property market in recent years, Beijing is expected to end up dusting off an old playbook and step in directly to stabilise a state-backed developer seen as a bellwether for the sector.With the crisis in the sector entering its fifth year, concerns about the financial health of China Vanke pose fresh challenges for the authorities, who have so far avoided the moral hazard of bailing out a debt-laden developer.Vanke’s crisis came into focus last Thursday after a state media report alleged that its CEO had been detained and that it could be subject to a takeover or reorganisation. The report was deleted within hours of its publication.Vanke, backed by state-owned shareholder Shenzhen Metro, declined to comment on the media report.All three global rating agencies have downgraded the developer deeper into junk since the media report, citing its eroding financial flexibility and an uncertain sales outlook for 2025.Worries over Vanke’s repayment ability intensified this month amid looming debt maturity deadlines – its next yuan repayment deadline is Jan. 27, while it has a total of $3.4 billion due this year.The government in the southern city of Shenzhen, where Vanke is headquartered, is stepping up meetings and coordination with local state enterprises on plans to contain the company’s debt risk and on asset disposals, said two people with knowledge of the matter.Vanke, whose interest-bearing debt stood at 331.3 billion yuan ($45.21 billion) as of the end of last June, is still trying to sell stakes in logistics platform GLP, property management unit Onewo, rental apartment businesses and shopping malls, among others, said two separate people close to the company.The sources declined to be named as they were not authorised to speak to the media.Vanke declined to comment. The Shenzhen government and Shenzhen Metro did not immediately respond to requests for comment. One of the best-known household names in China with many projects across bigger cities, Vanke is around a third owned by Shenzhen Metro. It had previously been viewed as immune to the property market turmoil which saw China Evergrande (HK:3333), the world’s most indebted developer with over $300 billion in liabilities, ordered into liquidation last year following its offshore debt default in late 2021.Analysts now express concern that Vanke’s problems could be the last straw for homebuyer confidence, which has shown signs of stabilizing in the past few months, and that banks could further shut financing to the sector, squeezing developers that have not defaulted. “Given Vanke’s iconic status in the property market in China, we think that the Shenzhen government should step in and help to solve its liquidity issue and prevent further deterioration of Vanke’s financial situation,” said Raymond (NSE:RYMD) Cheng, head of China research at CGS International Securities Hong Kong.BEST-CASE SCENARIOA full takeover of Vanke by the state, a possibility flagged by some analysts, would be a first-of-its-kind move in the world’s second-largest economy since the property sector crisis started in 2021.In the case of China Evergrande, the Guangdong provincial government set up a risk management committee to manage the fallout after the company said it might no longer be able to meet its financial obligation. Evergrande’s founder was later detained and the developer was subsequently ordered to be liquidated by a Hong Kong court.”Vanke is too important to the real estate industry … if it defaults it will ruin all the previous stabilization effort by the central government, and the risk may spread to the financial system,” said a Vanke bondholder, declining to be named.”Local government will for sure try its best to rescue Vanke.”Some analysts say a debt default is inevitable this year without fresh liquidity support as Vanke battles plunging monthly sales to below break-even levels and difficulties in borrowing from banks and disposing off assets. It fell to fifth by sales value last year from second in 2023.A Vanke creditor and a source close to the government in Shenzhen said a state rescue was unlikely to result in pumping in new capital, and analysts say a bailout could also involve other state firms buying assets or ensuring funding access.A government intervention also could stem from the need to ensure the completion of pre-sold homes, as Beijing in the recent past has been ramping up efforts to bolster homebuyer confidence, JPMorgan said in a research note on Jan. 16.A “clear government bailout” of Vanke would probably be the best-case scenario and would demonstrate that “the government is willing to put a floor under the property sector”, said Christopher Beddor, deputy China research director at Gavekal Dragonomics. More
The imbalance raises concerns that structural problems may deepen in 2025, when China plans a similar growth performance by going deeper into debt to counter the impact of expected U.S. tariff hikes, potentially as soon as Monday when Donald Trump is inaugurated as president.December data showed industrial output far outpacing retail sales, and the unemployment rate ticking higher, highlighting the supply-side strength of an economy running a trillion-dollar trade surplus, but also its domestic weakness.Export-led growth has been partly underpinned by factory gate deflation which makes Chinese goods more competitive on global markets, but also exposes Beijing to greater conflicts as trade gaps with other countries widen. Within borders, falling prices have ripped into corporate profits and workers’ incomes.Andrew Wang, an executive at a company providing industrial automation services for the booming electrical vehicle sector, said revenues fell 16% last year, prompting him to cut jobs, which he expects to do again soon.”The data China released was different from what most people felt,” Wang said, comparing this year’s outlook with notching up the difficulty level on a treadmill.”We need to run faster just to stay where we are.”China’s National Bureau of Statistics and the State Council Information Office, which handles media queries, did not immediately respond to questions about doubts over official data.”It seems dubious that China precisely hit its growth target for 2024 at a time when the economy continues to face tepid domestic demand, persistent deflationary pressures, and flailing property and equity markets,” said Eswar Prasad, trade policy professor at Cornell University and a former China director at the International Monetary Fund.”Looking ahead, China not only faces significant domestic challenges but also a hostile external environment.”If the bulk of the extra stimulus Beijing has lined up for this year keeps flowing towards industrial upgrades and infrastructure, rather than households, it could exacerbate overcapacity in factories, weaken consumption, and increase deflationary pressures, analysts say.Nomura analysts said that to deliver “a truly sustainable” growth recovery, Beijing needs to ease fiscal and monetary policy, resolve the protracted property crisis, reform its tax and social welfare systems and alleviate geopolitical tensions. “Simply put, despite today’s sanguine data, now is not the time for Beijing to rest on its laurels,” the analysts said.’UNEASE’Chinese exporters expect higher tariffs to have a much greater impact than in Trump’s first term, accelerating movement of production abroad and further shrinking profits, hurting jobs and private sector investment. Another trade war would find China much more vulnerable than when Trump first raised tariffs in 2018, as it grapples with a deep property crisis, huge local government debt, and 16% youth unemployment, among other imbalances.Beijing has pledged to prioritise domestic consumption, but has revealed little apart from a recently-expanded trade-in programme that subsidises purchases of cars, appliances and other goods.China gave civil servants their first big pay bump in a decade, but financial regulators got steep wage cuts, as have many in the private sector.For Jiaqi Zhang, a 25-year-old investment banker in Beijing, 2024 felt like a downturn. Her salary was trimmed for a second straight year, bringing the total pay cut to 30%, and eight or nine of her colleagues lost their jobs, she said.”There is a general feeling of unease in the company,” said Zhang, who has cut back on buying clothes and dining out. “I’m ready to leave at any time, it’s just that there’s nowhere to go right now.” SCEPTICISMData on Friday showed the world’s second-largest economy beat economists’ 2024 forecast of 4.9% growth. Its reported fourth-quarter 5.4% pace was the quickest since early 2023.”China’s economy is showing signs of revival, led by industrial output and exports,” said Frederic Neumann, chief Asia economist at HSBC.But the bounce may have been flattered by front-loading of shipments to the U.S. ahead of any new tariffs, which will inevitably lead to a pay-back, he said.”There will be an even bigger need to apply domestic stimulus” this year, Neumann said.China and Hong Kong shares rose slightly, but the yuan lingered near 16-month lows. Subdued markets reflect wavering confidence in China’s outlook, analysts said.”Are investors around the world going to invest in China because they hit 5%? No,” said Alicia Garcia-Herrero, chief economist for Asia Pacific at Natixis. “So it’s becoming an irrelevant target.” Beijing has rarely missed its growth targets. The last time was in 2022 due to the pandemic. It is expected to maintain a roughly 5% target in 2025, but analysts forecast growth to slow to 4.5% this year and 4.2% in 2026.Long-standing scepticism about the accuracy of official data has shifted into higher gear over the past month.A bearish commentary by Gao Shanwen, a prominent Chinese economist who spoke of “dispirited youth”, vanished from social media after going viral. Gao estimated GDP growth may have been overstated by 10 percentage points between 2021 and 2023.In a Dec. 31 note, Rhodium Group estimated China’s economy only grew 2.4%-2.8% in 2024, pointing to the disconnect between relatively stable official figures and the flood of stimulus unleashed from about the mid-way mark.This included May’s blockbuster property package, the most aggressive monetary policy easing steps since the pandemic in September and a 10 trillion yuan ($1.36 trillion) debt package for local governments.”If China’s actual growth is below headline rates, it suggests there is a broader problem of China’s domestic demand that is contributing to global trade tensions,” Rhodium partner Local Wright told Reuters.”Overcapacity would be a far less pressing issue if China’s economy was actually growing at 5% rates.”($1 = 7.3273 Chinese yuan)(This story has been refiled to fix story formatting, no change to text) More
