More stories

  • in

    Fed likely to cut again in January as labor market to soften: Standard Chartered

    “Fed funds futures now price less than a 20% probability of a follow-up cut on 29 January,” Standard Chartered said, adding that this was “too low.”The December labor market data will likely point to ongoing softness that would justify another cut in January.”Our baseline forecast is that it cuts again on 29 January, because we expect the incoming labour market data to soften further,” the bank said.”A higher unemployment rate or nonfarm payrolls growth of 125k or less should be enough [for the Fed to cut in January],” it added.With a December rate cut now widely expected, the Fed’s summary of economic (SEP) projections are likely to garner the bulk of investor attention amid expectations that the Fed could signal fewer cuts.But the Fed is likely to wait until at least March to make a major tweak to monetary policy, Standard Chartered said. The bank expects the Fed’s summary SEP to project an end-2025 federal funds rate at 3.625%, with a potential drop to 3.125%.While the bank believes the the Fed is poised to cut rates, the extent and timing of future cuts may be more measured than currently anticipated by the market. More

  • in

    FirstFT: Japan’s SoftBank woos Trump with planned $100bn investment in US

    $75 per monthComplete digital access to quality FT journalism with expert analysis from industry leaders. Pay a year upfront and save 20%.What’s included Global news & analysisExpert opinionFT App on Android & iOSFT Edit appFirstFT: the day’s biggest stories20+ curated newslettersFollow topics & set alerts with myFTFT Videos & Podcasts20 monthly gift articles to shareLex: FT’s flagship investment column15+ Premium newsletters by leading expertsFT Digital Edition: our digitised print edition More

  • in

    Explainer-How would a U.S. bitcoin strategic reserve work?

    WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Bitcoin hit a record high above $107,000 on Monday after President-elect Donald Trump reiterated plans to create a U.S. bitcoin strategic reserve, stoking the enthusiasm of crypto bulls. Here’s how the plan could work.WHAT IS A STRATEGIC RESERVE?A strategic reserve is a stock of a critical resource which can be released at times of crisis or supply disruptions. The best-known example is the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the world’s largest supply of emergency crude oil, which was created by an act of Congress in 1975 after a 1973-74 Arab oil embargo throttled the U.S. economy. Presidents have tapped the stockpile to calm oil markets during war or when hurricanes hit oil infrastructure along the U.S. Gulf of Mexico. Canada has the world’s only strategic reserve of maple syrup, while China has strategic reserves of metals, grains and even pork products.HOW WOULD A U.S. STRATEGIC BITCOIN RESERVE WORK?Analysts and legal experts are divided on whether Trump could use his executive powers to create the reserve, or whether an act of Congress would be necessary. Some have argued Trump could create the reserve via an executive order directing the U.S. Treasury’s Exchange Stabilization Fund, which can be used to purchase or sell foreign currencies, and to also hold bitcoin.The reserve could include bitcoin that the government has seized from criminal actors. That stands at around 200,000 tokens, worth about $21 billion at the current price, according to bitcointreasuries.net. Trump suggested in a July speech unveiling his bitcoin reserve plan that this stockpile could be the starting point, although it remains unclear what the legal process would be for moving them out of the Justice Department. Trump has not said if the government would add to that stockpile by buying more bitcoin in the open market. To do that, the government may have to issue debt, although some proponents of a bitcoin reserve say the United States could sell some of its gold reserves and use the proceeds to buy bitcoin.Currently, the most concrete bitcoin reserve proposal circulating in Washington comes from pro-crypto Republican Senator Cynthia Lummis, who personally holds five bitcoins, she told CNBC last month. In July, she introduced a bill, yet to gain traction, that would create a reserve operated by the Treasury. The bill envisages that the Treasury would create a program to buy 200,000 bitcoins annually for five years until the stockpile hit one million tokens. This would represent about 5% of the total global supply of bitcoin of around 21 million. The Treasury would fund the purchases with profits on Federal Reserve banks’ deposits and gold holdings.The bitcoin reserve would subsequently be maintained for a minimum of 20 years. WHAT ARE THE BENEFITS OF A BITCOIN RESERVE?In his July speech, Trump suggested a bitcoin reserve would help the U.S. dominate the global bitcoin market in the face of growing competition from China.Other proponents argue that by holding a stockpile of bitcoin, which they say is likely to continue appreciating over the long term, the U.S. could reduce its deficit without raising taxes, strengthening the U.S. dollar. In November, Lummis told Fox Business that her plan would allow the United States to cut its debt in half in 20 years. “What that does is help us protect ourselves against inflation and protect the U.S. dollar on the world stage,” she said. A strong dollar would in turn give the United States more leverage over foreign adversaries like China and Russia, proponents say. WHAT ARE THE RISKS?Crypto skeptics say that, unlike most other commodities, bitcoin has no intrinsic use and is not crucial to the functioning of the U.S. economy. Created in 2008, bitcoin remains too young and volatile to presume its value will continue to rise in the long term, while crypto wallets remain notoriously vulnerable to cyber attacks, they also argue. And given its volatility, any government purchases or sales could have an outsized impact on bitcoin’s price. More

  • in

    Forte Unveils Open-Source Rules Engine to Support Safety and Economic Stability in Blockchain Development

    Forte’s Open Source Rules Engine Empowers Web3 Developers with Dynamic On-Chain Compliance and Economic Solutions for Launching and Managing Digital Assets.Forte has officially unveiled and launched the Forte Rules Engine, an open-source solution for developers to build safe, on-chain environments and manage digital asset economies for web3 apps. With the Rules Engine, developers can define and enforce rules, establish transaction guardrails, manage compliance obligations, and mitigate the risks of volatility and bad actors – all while supporting long-term digital asset utility and economic health. Developers can now utilize the Forte Rules Engine by visiting: forte.io/developersSafe Environments for Digital AssetsThe Forte Rules Engine employs on-chain guardrails to implement protective layers and safeguards that help mitigate risk and manage digital asset markets. The technology streamlines compliance navigation by leveraging Forte’s ecosystem of regulated partners to facilitate Know Your Customer (KYC) and Wallet protocols as well as sanctions enforcement, fostering responsible practices and building trust among users and communities. Through enhanced features such as Zero Knowledge (ZK) capabilities, developers can ensure privacy, verify identities, and assure transaction integrity.Economic StabilityDevelopers will have access to a growing set of features designed to help launch, grow and scale a sustainable economy that their community can trust. This includes both templated and bespoke rulesets which can be designed to mitigate market volatility and manipulation, enforce token utility requirements, and effectively manage trading volume. The on-chain rulesets are designed for seamless integration and equipped with third-party integration options, ready to meet developer needs from day one. They offer the flexibility to adapt and evolve alongside the project, ensuring scalability and stability. Developers interested in leveraging the Forte Rules Engine for their next project can start building here. About ForteForte provides open-source, on-chain solutions that foster safe environments and support healthy and stable digital asset economies. Our trust and privacy-preservation solutions empower developers to manage compliance risk, promote economic stability, and leverage instant liquidity. Developers can deploy flexible and adaptable blockchain solutions that evolve with their dynamic needs – fully compatible with all EVM chains and web3 wallets. Forte and its ecosystem partners are currently working with acclaimed developers to redefine the future of blockchain innovation. ContactSibel Sunar47 communications on behalf of Forteforte@fortyseven.comThis article was originally published on Chainwire More

  • in

    Argentina’s economy exits recession in milestone for Milei

    S$99 per monthComplete digital access to quality FT journalism with expert analysis from industry leaders. Pay a year upfront and save 20%.What’s included Global news & analysisExpert opinionFT App on Android & iOSFT Edit appFirstFT: the day’s biggest stories20+ curated newslettersFollow topics & set alerts with myFTFT Videos & Podcasts20 monthly gift articles to shareLex: FT’s flagship investment column15+ Premium newsletters by leading expertsFT Digital Edition: our digitised print edition More

  • in

    Banxico to cut by 25 bps- analyst

    The financial institution anticipates a divided decision, with at least one member likely to push for a more aggressive 50 basis point reduction. Furthermore, Bank of America foresees new forward guidance from Banxico, suggesting the possibility of an accelerated pace of rate cuts.Banxico has previously indicated in its November forward guidance that it plans to lower rates in subsequent meetings. The rationale behind the expected rate cuts includes core inflation remaining under 4%, a sluggish economy despite an unexpected growth in third-quarter GDP, and the U.S. Federal Reserve’s own rate-cutting measures. Despite these factors, challenges such as headline inflation hovering around 5%, close to 5% services inflation, a tight labor market, a weakening Mexican peso, and uncertainties surrounding domestic reforms and U.S. policies under President-elect Donald Trump, create a complex backdrop for monetary policy decisions.Moreover, inflation expectations are still above the 3.0% target, which adds to the caution exercised by Banxico. With these considerations in mind, Bank of America predicts a gradual but consistent reduction in the policy rate for the remainder of this year and into the early part of the next, aiming for a rate of 8.75%. However, there remains a risk that Banxico may opt for a more rapid pace, potentially enacting 50 basis point cuts as soon as December and possibly cutting rates more deeply than Bank of America currently expects.This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C. More

  • in

    US congressional negotiators aim to fund government through March 14, source says

    The measure would likely keep the roughly $6.2 trillion federal budget running at its current level, funding everything from the military to air traffic controllers to federal securities regulators at their current level. It is expected to include an extension of the farm bill, an omnibus package passed every five years, a Republican Senate aide said.The stopgap measure is needed because Congress failed to pass its 12 annual appropriations bills in time for the current fiscal year, which began on Oct. 1. The government’s “mandatory” programs – which include Social Security and Medicare retirement and healthcare benefits and represent about two-thirds of the budget – renew automatically.Congress’ failure to address the gap between federal revenue and spending has contributed to the rising national debt — currently north of $36 trillion. Congress will have to address that again early next year, when a 2023 deal to extend the nation’s “debt ceiling” expires. Failure could shock bond markets with potentially severe economic consequences.Democrats had pushed for a longer bill, funding the government through the end of its current fiscal year, which ends Sept. 30. But Republicans balked, wanting to wait for final agreement until after President-elect Donald Trump is sworn in on Jan. 20 and their party takes its majorities in both the Senate and House of Representatives. Trump and congressional Republicans campaigned this year on a promise of significantly cutting the number of federal workers and proposing deep cuts to many of the government’s programs.(This story has been refiled to say ‘negotiators aim,’ not ‘negotiating deal,’ in the headline) More

  • in

    Floki Expands Presence in UAE as Sponsor of the 2024 World Tennis League

    Floki is set to make its mark at the 2024 World Tennis League (WTL), one of the most exciting mixed-gender exhibition tennis tournaments in the world. Held at the Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi from December 19 to December 22, this year’s event combines world-class tennis with live music, set to captivate millions of fans worldwide.The 2024 WTL boasts a roster of top-ranked athletes, including: Aryna Sabalenka, Iga Swiatek, Jasmine Paolini, Casper Ruud, Nick Kyrgios, Simona Halep, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Paula Badosa, Andrey Rublev, Elena Rybakina, Caroline Garcia, Mirra Andreeva, Jordan Thompson, Sumit Nagal, Alexander Shevchenko and Denis Shapovalov. These players have been assigned to 4 different teams — Kites, Eagles, Falcons and Hawks — as part of an all-play-all game format.Floki’s brand will be prominently displayed throughout the tournament. Branding will feature courtside next to the tramlines and across all digital collateral including LED boards, big screens, and backdrops. The partnership aims to position Floki with a global audience that exceeded 46.4 million during last year’s event. The evenings will transform the Etihad Arena into a concert venue, featuring live performances by Bryan Adams, Akon, Anastacia, and Sean Paul. This year’s WTL will be broadcast live on Sony (NYSE:SONY) TV and an extensive network of global broadcast partners, ensuring Floki reaches tennis fans worldwide.About the World Tennis LeagueNow in its third edition, the World Tennis League has earned a reputation for its innovative format, blending elite-level tennis with a festival atmosphere. The third edition of the WTL is set to take place from December 19–22, 2024, at the Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, UAE, a premier venue that hosts world-class events. The tournament attracts top-tier tennis talent and millions of fans worldwide, making it a marquee event in the international sports calendar.About FlokiFloki is the people’s cryptocurrency and utility token of the Floki Ecosystem. Focused on utility, community, philanthropy, and strategic marketing, Floki is working toward becoming the world’s most recognized and used cryptocurrency. With over 490,000 holders globally, Floki has already established a strong brand presence. Users can learn more at floki.com.YouTube | Telegram | Instagram | TikTok | Discord | Facebook (NASDAQ:META) | Reddit | Twitch | ValhallaContactCommunity Relations OfficerPedro VidalFLOKIMarketing@floki.comThis article was originally published on Chainwire More