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$75 per monthComplete digital access to quality FT journalism with expert analysis from industry leaders. Pay a year upfront and save 20%.What’s included Global news & analysisExpert opinionFT App on Android & iOSFT Edit appFirstFT: the day’s biggest stories20+ curated newslettersFollow topics & set alerts with myFTFT Videos & Podcasts20 monthly gift articles to shareLex: FT’s flagship investment column15+ Premium newsletters by leading expertsFT Digital Edition: our digitised print edition More

$75 per monthComplete digital access to quality FT journalism with expert analysis from industry leaders. Pay a year upfront and save 20%.What’s included Global news & analysisExpert opinionFT App on Android & iOSFT Edit appFirstFT: the day’s biggest stories20+ curated newslettersFollow topics & set alerts with myFTFT Videos & Podcasts20 monthly gift articles to shareLex: FT’s flagship investment column15+ Premium newsletters by leading expertsFT Digital Edition: our digitised print edition More

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Unlock the Editor’s Digest for freeRoula Khalaf, Editor of the FT, selects her favourite stories in this weekly newsletter.Australia has felt the ripple effect of a weaker Chinese economy as it is set to cut A$8.5bn ($5.4bn) from its budget estimates because of lower anticipated income from mining taxes over the next four years.Jim Chalmers, Australia’s treasurer, said on Monday that slower growth in China would have a “significant impact” on the Australian economy in the coming years, ahead of revised budget forecasts to be published on Wednesday.The Treasury would lower anticipated export revenue from the country’s mining sector by A$100bn in the four years to 2028, according to Chalmers, with anticipated taxes reduced by A$8.5bn over the same period as a result.“This just reflects the reality of less demand out of China,” he said, citing weak iron ore prices and lower volumes of minerals being exported to the country because of its soft economy.The trading relationship between China and Australia has been in focus in recent years after Beijing imposed a series of sanctions on some Australian goods, including coal, wine, cotton, seafood and barley, in 2020. Australia withstood that pressure and China remained its largest trading partner thanks to its reliance on the Pacific country’s natural resources for its industrial growth. China accounted for nearly a third of Australia’s exports in 2023, worth A$219bn, according to government data. That was down from 38 per cent in 2020 but still represented 8 per cent of Australia’s GDP, according to UBS.A softer Chinese economy in 2024 has hit commodity prices, including iron ore — which accounts for more than half of the value of exports to China — and lithium. That has had a knock-on effect in Australia’s powerful mining sector, which has remained optimistic that demand from growing sectors, such as renewable energy and carmaking, might help offset a slump in China’s property sector.Australia’s economic growth has slowed this year, mostly because of weak consumption and declining productivity. Third-quarter GDP growth was weaker than expected and has cast doubt over the resilience of the Australian economy.Chalmers noted on Monday that Australia’s trading relationship with other countries would “evolve over time”. He said there had been a “stunning transformation” of the Chinese economy that was set to continue in consumer-focused industries.“We have been a big beneficiary of that and I think we’ll be a big beneficiary of it into the future as well,” he said of the “very productive and prosperous relationship with China” that Australia enjoyed. More

BENGALURU (Reuters) – The Bank of Thailand (BOT) will keep its key interest rate unchanged on Wednesday after a surprise October trim, according to a Reuters poll of economists, though they were divided on whether the bank would hold or cut early next year.Consumer inflation has remained below the central bank’s target for most of this year but rose to 0.95% in November, edging closer to its lower-end target range of 1-3%.Southeast Asia’s second-largest economy grew 3.0% annually last quarter – its fastest pace in two years – after lagging regional peers as it struggled under high household debt.Momentum is likely to pick up this quarter and next year as tourism and exports, key drivers of growth, are expected to continue supporting the economy along with government stimulus measures, which began in September.Nearly all economists, 28 of 30, in the Dec. 9-13 poll forecast the central bank would keep its benchmark one-day repurchase rate at 2.25% on Dec. 18. Two predicted a 25 basis point cut.”The Bank of Thailand will stay on hold. The BOT will decide the economy doesn’t need any more accommodative support because fiscal policy has started to do the heavy lifting,” said Lavanya Venkateswaran, senior ASEAN economist at OCBC Bank.The government wants to see interest rates reduced further to support the economy while BOT Governor Sethaput Suthiwartnarueput said earlier this month a mix of policies was needed to manage the economy as interest rates alone cannot address everything.Among those who had a long-term view, just over half, or 14 of 27 said interest rates will remain on hold next quarter. The rest expected a decrease of 25 basis points.This lack of consensus stems from concerns around the uncertainty of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed policies on trade tariffs and their effect on the export-driven economy.The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to reduce interest rates by 75 basis points before end-2025, down from 100 bps seen in September, putting additional downward pressure on the Thai baht, which has risen around 1% against the dollar this year.”We don’t see much room for the BOT to ease further. The Thai baht’s value is still very much a concern and the central bank will still want to keep the baht at a reasonable level,” said Erica Tay, director of macro research at Maybank.A slim majority in the poll said a February rate cut was unlikely.Median forecasts suggested a 25 basis point cut in Q2, bringing rates to 2.00%, a change from an October snap poll where the next reduction was predicted to come next quarter. Rates were expected to remain there for the rest of the year.(Other stories from the Reuters global economic poll) More