Aurelia Butler

TOKYO (Reuters) -The euro fell to a two-year low and sterling also tumbled after data on Friday showed major declines in business activity in both markets, while bitcoin hit a record high just shy of $100,000. The common currency dipped more than 1% at one point to its lowest level since November 2022, and was last down 0.6% on the day at $1.0413 after the data, which showed the bloc’s dominant services industry contracted and manufacturing had sunk deeper into recession. Markets also raised their expectations of European Central Bank rate cuts, and see a more than 50% chance of a larger-than-usual 50 basis points reduction in borrowing costs in December. The ECB’s deposit rate is currently 3.25%. “Today’s numbers were weak enough to shift the risks further to the downside,” said Frederik Ducrozet, head of macroeconomic research at Pictet Wealth Management.”The monetary policy reaction should be straightforward  – the ECB needs to ease faster to neutral as a first step,” he said. “Then of course, a lot will depend on U.S. policies and tariffs, but under the assumption of a modest additional shock to trade and sentiment, we believe that the ECB will need to cut rates below 2% in 2025.” The euro also fell against the Swiss franc and was last down 0.27% at 0.9264 francs. It weakened against sterling but then pared declines after soft British PMI data hurt the British currency. Versus the dollar, the pound was last down 0.62% at $1.2509 after British retail sales fell by much more than expected in October, and PMI data showed British business output had shrunk for the first time in more than a year. Further signs of slowing economic growth could cause the Bank of England to soften its monetary stance. STRONG DOLLARThe latest domestic data add to problems for European currencies that have been weakening against the dollar since Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. presidential election on Nov. 5. The index that tracks the dollar against six main peers was up 0.5% at 107.6, its highest since November 2022. The index has appreciated sharply this month on expectations that President-elect Trump’s policies could reignite inflation and limit the Fed’s ability to cut rates, keeping other currencies under pressure.Trump floated the idea of appointing Kevin Warsh as Treasury Secretary on the understanding that he could later be Federal Reserve chairman, the Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday, citing people familiar with the matter.The Japanese yen was at 154.4 per dollar, flat on the day. The yen slid back below 156 per dollar last week for the first time since July, sparking the possibility that Japanese authorities may again take steps to shore it up.The yen received a short-lived boost from BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda, who said on Thursday that the bank would “seriously” take into account the impact that yen moves could have on the economic and price outlook.Japan’s annual core inflation was 2.3% in October, keeping pressure on the central bank to raise its still-low interest rates.Just over half of economists in a Reuters poll believed the BOJ would hike in December, in part because of concerns about the depreciating yen.Eyes were also on bitcoin, which was at a record high, a whisker off $100,000. More

LONDON (Reuters) – British home price increases will outpace overall inflation and rental costs will rise even faster although affordability for first time homebuyers will improve, according to a Reuters Nov. 11-21 poll of 21 housing market experts.Higher rent adds to the struggle for buyers to save the deposit needed to secure a mortgage to get on the property ladder as it eats into their disposable income.The average value of a British home was expected to rise 3.1% next year and 4.0% in 2026, barely changed from predictions in a September poll. General inflation will average 2.3% and 2.1% in these two years, a separate Reuters survey showed.House prices rose at the fastest pace since February 2023 in the 12 months to September, figures from the Office for National Statistics showed on Wednesday.But urban rental costs were predicted to increase faster than prices, rising 4-5% next year and so squeezing the budgets of prospective purchasers.”The restriction in supply of rental properties is rising quickly and it is outpacing the shortage of supply in the housing market – and thus rents will outpace house prices axiomatically,” said Tony Williams at advisory firm Building Value.”The supply of rental properties, especially in urban areas is dropping sharply as owners fear greater tax on disposals.”In her maiden budget late last month, finance minister Rachel Reeves increased capital gains tax to 18% from 10%.However, British homebuilders, after battling subdued demand for most of 2024, have witnessed signs of an improvement in recent months, spurred by the Bank of England’s interest rate reductions and supportive policy measures introduced by the Labour government.Giving some respite to buyers needing to borrow to fund their purchase, the BoE cut interest rates earlier this month for a second time this year and is expected to reduce them by another 100 basis points or more by end-2025.That prompted 13 of 15 respondents to an additional question to say affordability would improve over the coming year.”More competitive mortgage rates, albeit not quite as low as some hoped, will help with affordability despite the forecast for modest price rises,” said Marcus Dixon at real estate advisers JLL.In London, seen as a good investment opportunity by foreign buyers, the average home price will rise 3.0% next year and 4.0% in 2026, according to the poll.(Other stories from the Q4 global Reuters housing poll) More

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LONDON (Reuters) -The new British government’s plan to increase taxes on businesses contributed to the first contraction in private sector activity in over a year, a survey showed, after signs the economy was losing momentum even before last month’s budget.The preliminary S&P Global Flash Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index, published on Friday, fell to 49.9 in November from 51.8 in October.”The first survey on the health of the economy after the budget makes for gloomy reading,” Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said.It is the first time the index has been below the 50.0 no-change level in 13 months.Williamson said the survey suggested the economy was contracting at a quarterly 0.1% pace, but the hit to confidence hinted at worse to come, including further job losses. Sterling fell to stand half a cent lower against the U.S. dollar on the day, with investors almost fully pricing in the Bank of England cutting interest rates to 4% by the end of 2025 from 4.75% now.”For policymakers, the key question now will be to assess whether the potential inflationary hit from higher taxes offsets the potential demand hit from weaker private demand,” Sanjay Raja, Deutsche Bank (ETR:DBKGn)’s chief UK economist, said.Some manufacturers worried about renewed trade tensions once Donald Trump becomes the next U.S president. Others hoped clarity after the vote would unblock investment decisions.The PMI also showed employers cut staffing levels for a second month in a row while the measure of overall new business was the weakest in a year.A weaker outlook for the global economy weighed on companies with the automotive sector in a slump. But the first moves of Britain’s Labour government were also a cause for concern.”Companies are giving a clear ‘thumbs down’ to the policies announced in the budget, especially the planned increase in employers’ National Insurance Contributions,” Williamson said.WEAKENING MOMENTUM Finance minister Rachel Reeves increased the annual burden of social security payments for employers by around 25 billion pounds ($31 billion) a year. Many businesses have said her Oct. 30 budget flies in the face of the government’s pledge to turn Britain into the fastest-growing Group of Seven economy.Momentum was already weak with Britain’s gross domestic product edging up by only 0.1% in the three months to the end of September, according to official data last week, and retail sales fell sharply in October as shoppers worried about the budget.Figures on Thursday showed government borrowing shot past private-sector economists’ forecasts last month, underscoring how reliant Reeves is likely to be on stronger economic growth to fund more spending on public services.However, a measure of consumer confidence published on Friday suggested individuals turned a bit more optimistic this month after they avoided the brunt of the tax increases.Friday’s PMI survey found firms were not replacing departing staff as they braced for April’s rise in payroll costs.Selling prices rose at the slowest rate since the coronavirus pandemic but high rates of growth in input prices and costs related to wages were hurting the service sector.That could worry some interest rate-setters at the Bank of England which is watching prices in the service sector closely.($1 = 0.7987 pounds) More

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