Evelyn Reynolds

On the surface, February’s inflation data brought some encouraging news. But underneath, there were signs likely to keep the Fed on hold when it comes to interest rates.
While the consumer and producer price indexes both were lower than market expectations, that won’t necessarily be reflected in the main PCE price index measure the Fed uses to gauge inflation.
“In short, progress on inflation has started off 2025 on the wrong foot,” Bank of America economist Stephen Juneau said in a note.

Watermelons from Mexico are displayed on a shelf at a Target store on March 5, 2025 in Novato, California.
Justin Sullivan | Getty Images

On the surface, February’s inflation data released this week brought some encouraging news. But underneath, there were signs likely to keep the Federal Reserve on hold when it comes to interest rates.
While the consumer and producer price indexes both were lower than anticipated, that won’t necessarily be reflected in the main measure the Fed uses to gauge inflation.

Because of some byzantine math and trends in a few key areas beneath the headline readings, policymakers are unlikely to take a lot of comfort in these numbers, according to multiple Wall Street economists.
“In short, progress on inflation has started off 2025 on the wrong foot,” Bank of America economist Stephen Juneau said in a note. “Our forecast for PCE inflation reinforces our view that inflation is unlikely to fall enough for the Fed to cut this year, especially given policy changes that boost inflation. We maintain our view that policy rates will stay on hold through year-end unless activity data really weakens.”
Markets agree, at least for now. Traders are assigning virtually no probability of a cut at next week’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting and only about a 1-in-4 chance of a reduction in May, according to CME Group calculations.

While the Fed pays attention to the two Bureau of Labor Statistics gauges, it considers the last word on inflation to be the Commerce Department’s personal consumption expenditures price index.
Central bank officials believe the PCE reading — in particular the core that excludes food and energy prices — to be a broader look at price trends. The index also more closely reflects what consumers are buying rather than just the prices of individual goods and services. If consumers are, say, substituting chicken for beef, that would be more indicated in the PCE rather than the CPI or PPI.

Most economists think the latest PCE reading, scheduled for release later this month, will show the year-over-year inflation rate at best holding steady at 2.6% or perhaps even ticking up a notch — further away from the Fed’s 2% goal.
Specifically, Thursday’s PPI report, which measures wholesale costs and is thus considered an indicator of pipeline inflation, “confirms our fears that the benign February inflation print would map across to a hotter than expected inflation print on the Fed’s preferred PCE inflation gauge,” wrote Krishna Guha, head of global policy and central bank strategy at Evercore ISI.
“Rather than decline steadily through early [second quarter], PCE inflation looks instead set to be bumpy and choppy,” he added.
Some of the areas that will feed through from the PPI and elevate the PCE include higher prices for hospital care as well as insurance prices and air transportation, according to Sam Tombs, chief U.S. economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.
“The outturn almost certainly will make the Fed wince,” Combs wrote.
Combs predicts the core PCE reading for February will show an inflation rate of 2.8%, a 0.2 percentage point increase from January. That’s about in line with others on the Street, as Bank of America and Citigroup see the core inflation rate at 2.7%. Either way, it’s moving in the wrong direction. The consumer price index showed a core inflation rate of 3.1%, the lowest since April 2021.
However, there could be some good news yet.
As much as the expectation is for a bounce from February, many forecasters see inflation pulling back beyond that, even with the impact from tariffs.
Citi thinks March will see a “much more favorable” reading, with the firm predicting an out-of-consensus call of the Fed resuming its rate cuts in May. Market pricing currently indicates a much greater likelihood of a June cut.

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The comments come after Bessent said Friday that the U.S. would undergo a transition period as the federal government tries to cut spending, including laying off public sector workers.
Bessent on Thursday reiterated his view that current levels of government spending are “unsustainable.”

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Thursday that his previous comments about a “detox period” for the U.S. economy did not mean that a recession was necessary.
“Not at all. Doesn’t have to be, because it will depend on how quickly the baton gets handed off. Our goal is to have a smooth transition,” Bessent said on CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street.”

The comments come after Bessent said Friday that the U.S. would undergo a transition period as the federal government tries to cut spending, including laying off public sector workers. Bessent on Thursday reiterated his view that current levels of government spending are “unsustainable.”
“We have excess employment in the government, and those people can be moved to the private sector,” Bessent said.
The Treasury head’s comments last week came as several recent economic indicators have pointed to weakening growth. Job growth was slower than expected in February, and surveys of consumers and small business have shown a decline in confidence.
The stock market has also struggled in recent weeks, with the S&P 500 down 6% in March.

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SPX in March

The federal spending cuts are not the only policy changes that President Donald Trump’s administration is pushing. The White House has also increased tariffs on major U.S. trading partners, and a deal to extend existing tax cuts is expected to be a key part of political negotiations later this year.
“There’s two parts to this: It’s accelerating the economy, growing the revenue base — and controlling expenses. In the U.S., we do not have a revenue problem, we have a spending problem,” Bessent said Thursday. More

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Thursday the administration is more focused on the long-term health of the economy and markets and not short-term gyrations.
While Bessent said the administration is attentive to market moves, he predicted that both the real economy and markets would prosper over time.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Thursday the Trump administration is more focused on the long-term health of the economy and markets and not short-term gyrations.
“We’re focused on the real economy. Can we create an environment where there are long-term gains in the market and long-term gains for the American people?” Bessent said on CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street.” “I’m not concerned about a little bit of volatility over three weeks.”

The comments come with markets in a state of turmoil largely centered on President Donald Trump’s near-daily moves on tariffs against major U.S. trading partners such as Canada, Mexico and China. Major averages have moved toward correction territory, as the Dow Jones Industrial Average has lost more than 7% over the past month.
While Bessent said the administration is attentive to market moves, he predicted that both the real economy and markets would prosper over time.
“The reason stocks are a safe and great investment is because you’re looking over the long term. If you start looking at micro horizons, stocks become very risky. So we are focused over the medium-, long-term,” he said in the interview with CNBC’s Sara Eisen. “I can tell you that if we put proper policies in place, it’s going to lay the groundwork for a both real income gains and job gains and continued asset gains.”
Stocks again were volatile in morning trade, with the averages around even as Bessent spoke.
Earlier in the morning, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that wholesale inflation was flat in February, well below Wall Street expectations for a 0.3% increase. That followed a report Wednesday indicating that the consumer price rate had nudged lower as well, providing some welcome news amid concerns that the Trump tariffs would aggravate inflation.
“Maybe the inflation is getting under control and the market is going to have some confidence in that,” Bessent said.

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Last week, President Donald Trump paused tariffs on some Canadian and Mexican imports, granting a reprieve for a month.
Should the duties go through, they could raise material costs for the average new home by as much as $10,000, according to the National Association of Home Builders.
The trade group said that softwood lumber is mainly sourced from Canada, while gypsum primarily comes from Mexico. Steel and aluminum, along with completed home appliances, come from China, the NAHB said.

A home is constructed at a housing development on June 21, 2023 in Lemont, Illinois.
Scott Olson | Getty Images

President Donald Trump’s tariffs could increase material costs for the average new home by as much as $10,000, according to the National Association of Home Builders.
The trade group said it has received anecdotal reports from members that Trump’s plan for levies would raise material prices by between $7,500 and $10,000 for the average new single-family home. While the association is planning a formal survey in the future, this figure offers an early glimpse of what businesses and consumers can expect if Trump’s controversial taxes on Canadian and Mexican imports go forward as planned.

“For years, NAHB has been leading the fight against tariffs because of their detrimental effect on housing affordability,” the association wrote in a blog post published last week. “In effect, the tariffs act as a tax on American builders, home buyers and consumers.”
Trump last week delayed 25% tariffs for some Canadian and Mexican imports by a month after implementing them just days earlier, a stunning reversal amid financial market turmoil. His additional hike to levies on China, which lifted duties on that nation’s goods to 20%, went forward.
The NAHB said softwood lumber is mainly sourced from Canada, while gypsum, a component of drywall, comes primarily from Mexico. Other materials like steel and aluminum — in addition to completed home appliances — are imported to the U.S. from China, the group said.
An implementation of the 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico as previously laid out by Trump would raise total costs for imported construction materials by more than $3 billion, according to the NAHB.

Homebuilders react

Homebuilders have had to respond to analysts and investors wondering what these taxes could mean for their bottom lines. The SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) has tumbled more than 22% from highs seen in late November as uncertainty rattled investors.

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The SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF over the last 6 months

For D.R. Horton, around 20% of lumber is estimated to come from Canada. The Texas-based firm, like others, has made strides in recent years to shift supply chains away from China coming out of the Covid pandemic. But it still has to contend with the possibility of new taxes on components coming from Mexico, said Jessica Hansen, head of investor relations.
Tallying a total impact is difficult given the potential for Trump’s policy to change and a lack of clarity about how much of certain products are imported, Hansen said at a Barclays conference last month.
There’s “really no way to proxy what that could ultimately cost, but we’ll navigate it like we do anything,” Hansen said. “If we’ve got a cost category that’s inflating and we’re in a gross margin compressing environment, we’re going to renegotiate anything and everything that we can.”
There can also be a knock-on effect for builders that don’t rely as much on imports, like K.B. Home, whose Chief Operating Officer Robert McGibney said earlier this year sources a “majority” of products domestically. Tariffs can drive up prices for those American-made materials, he said, as competitors increase demand by localizing their supply chains.
Just last week, as international focus narrowed in on U.S. tariff policy, Taylor Morrison Home held its first-ever investor day. As part of the presentation, the homebuilder brought in Ali Wolf, chief economist at housing data provider Zonda, to explain the state of the market following years defined by high interest rates and little inventory.
Wolf said Zonda expects Trump’s tariffs to raise costs on materials for homebuilders between 6% and 14%. She also said builders in border states could also take a hit if Trump’s promise for mass deportations shrinks the workforce.
As Wolf evaluates where the market is heading in 2025, she said Trump is top of mind. The positive impact for homebuilders stemming from the administration’s posture for deregulation, she said, needs to be weighed against the concerns tied to immigration and trade policies.
“The first thing we’re paying attention to is the new administration: pro-growth, less regulation. We’re here for it. We love it,” Wolf said. “We want to see removing a lot of the red tape in particular that takes it particularly long to get new homes built.”
“With that being said, when you look at some of the policies — tariffs, immigration, interest rates — all of these disproportionately negatively impact our industry.” More

Chickens stand next to stacks of eggs in a henhouse at Sunrise Farms on February 18, 2025 in Petaluma, California. 
Justin Sullivan | Getty Images News | Getty Images

Egg prices have fallen sharply so far in March on some progress in ending a shortage, giving consumers some much-needed relief with the supermarket staple.
The cost of white large shell eggs declined to $6.85 per dozen, on average, last week, according to data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture. That represents a decline of $1.20 per dozen, and a 15% pull back the USDA’s prior update on Feb. 28.

“Demand for shell eggs continues to fade into the new month as no significant outbreaks of HPAI [highly pathogenic avian influenza] have been detected in nearly two weeks,” the USDA wrote in its March 7 weekly update. “This respite has provided an opportunity for production to make progress in reducing recent shell egg shortages.”
Egg prices have become a key pressure point for consumers that are tired of sticky inflation and worried about more potential price increases due to President Donald Trump’s tariffs on a wide array of imports. While it is still unknown the full ramifications of the duties on Canada, China and Mexico, stocks have so far pulled back in 2025 on concern the moves could further raise prices of goods and tip a sagging economy into a recession.
To be sure, the price of eggs have still skyrocketed more than 170% from a year ago, USDA data shows. The rise has spurred an investigation by the U.S. Department of Justice into allegations of anticompetitive practices from some of the largest egg producers in the country. Firms including Cal-Maine Foods have touted a crushing avian flu outbreak, which has forced the culling of millions of egg-laying hens, as the major catalyst for the rise in egg prices.
“The primary reason for the drop is actions taken by the administration’s Department of Justice to investigate the companies for possible antitrust violations,” said Joe Maxwell, president of Farm Action Fund, told CNBC. “The dominant firms have so much control over the market that they can increase prices and lower prices almost at will.”
“There has been a softening of demand for eggs by consumers, but we do not see this as a significant factor, considering this has been an ongoing trend,” Maxwell added.
Egg prices were a key factor in the February consumer price index report, with the Bureau of Labor Statistics noting prices advanced 10.4% last month and 58.8% year-over-year. The marked-up price tag for eggs has even pushed consumers to begin shifting their breakfast habits. More

Ongoing U.S. tariffs could push Europe’s largest economy into a recession, German central bank President Joachim Nagel warned.
“Now we are in a world with tariffs, so we could expect maybe a recession for this year, if the tariffs are really coming,” he said during a BBC podcast interview.
The tariffs-led uncertainty come at a time when the EU nations could be set to loosen their budgetary strings and accommodate additional defense expenses, with Germany also planning a potential reform of key fiscal policies.

The German parliament building, the Reichstag, which has been the seat of the Bundestag since 1999.
Fhm | Moment | Getty Images

U.S. tariffs could push Europe’s largest economy into a recession, German central bank President Joachim Nagel warned Thursday, as Berlin faces a debate over the potential overhaul of its fiscal policies.
“Now we are in a world with tariffs, so we could expect maybe a recession for this year, if the tariffs are really coming,” Nagel, who leads the Bundesbank and serves as a member of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank, said during a BBC podcast interview.

Global tariffs are set to exacerbate the existing symptoms of what Nagel described as Germany’s “stagnating economy,” which has contracted for two consecutive years amid the combined aftershocks of the Covid-19 pandemic and the energy crisis triggered by Western sanctions on Russia for its three-year invasion of Ukraine.
Mere months after inflation and interest rates began descending in the euro zone last year, returning U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff-heavy strategy, aimed at reducing his country’s perceived deficits with trade partners, is rattling markets – and fracturing Europe’s traditionally strong relationship with its transatlantic ally.
On Wednesday, the European Union retaliated against Trump’s 25% duties on steel and aluminum imports that came into effect that day with a spate of counter-tariffs set to affect 26 billion euros ($28.26 billion) worth of U.S. goods, starting in April.
“This is not a good policy,” Nagel said, bemoaning the “tectonic changes” now facing the world at large. “I hope that there is understanding within the Trump administration that the price that has to be paid is the highest on the side of the Americans.”
As the world’s third-largest exporter, according to 2023 data, and numbering the U.S. as the foremost importer of its goods, Germany is especially vulnerable to tariffs, which could erode its automative and machinery sectors.

Cripplingly, exports of good and services accounted for 43.4% of Germany’s gross domestic product in 2023, according to World Bank data, although federal statistics office data indicate its typically high foreign trade surplus most recently slimmed to 16 billion euros in January, compared with 20.7 billion euros in December.
The tariffs-led uncertainty come at a time when the EU nations could be set to loosen their budgetary strings and accommodate additional defense expenses, under the bloc’s ‘ReArm’ plan revealed last week amid uncertainty over the U.S.’ ongoing commitment to assist Ukraine.
Fitch Ratings on Thursday warned that the initiative, which could mobilize close to 800 billion euros of defense expenditures, risks lowering the headroom of the EU’s current AAA rating because of the additional debt likely to be undertaken, without leading to an outright downgrade.

Foot on ‘debt brake’ pedal

Germany set the tone last week as the Conservatives’ Friedrich Merz, who is expected to emerge as chancellor in the country’s upcoming ruling coalition, announced plans to overhaul the national so-called “debt brake” to allow for higher defense spend – in a move that sparked a rally in German bund yields and broader stocks.
The initiative, which combines the fiscal change proposals with a 500 billion euro fund for infrastructure, has been met with resistance from the Green Party – which Merz’s conservatives and probable future coalition partner, the Social Democrats, must sway in a bid to clinch a two-thirds majority needed to change the constitutionally-enshrined debt brake.
Ahead of a parliament session debating the potential reform, senior Green official Britta Hasselmann flagged “serious gaps and errors in the conception” of the debt plans toward items like climate change prevention, according to comments reported by Reuters. The Thursday session will only lead to a draft law, while the March 18 reading will likely be decisive for the legislation.

In a Wednesday note, Deutsche Bank analysts retained their base case of the reforms ultimately undergoing what is “unlikely to be a smooth passage” in parliament over the course of the next week, signaling that a “compromise proposal would not significantly alter the expected fiscal stimulus of 3-4% of GDP by 2027 at the latest” that the bank previously calculated based on the Conservatives’ original proposal.
The analysts also factored in the possibility of a splintered fiscal package, with the immediate passage of defense and debt brake policies and the later adoption of the infrastructure plans under a new parliament.
“This would potentially change the composition of the infrastructure package and gear it more towards social housing,” they noted. More