Evelyn Reynolds

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    U.S. Factory Towns Laid Low by the ‘China Shock’ Are Benefiting From New Investments

    Communities that suffered the worst of plant closings in recent decades are now gaining an outsize share of fresh investment and new jobs.For much of the last half century, economic life in the heart of North Carolina has been dominated by factory closings, joblessness and downgraded expectations. Textile mills and furniture plants have been undercut by low-priced imports from Mexico and China. Tobacco processing jobs have disappeared.Yet over the last several years, an infusion of investment in cutting-edge industries like biotechnology, computer chips and electric vehicles has lifted the fortunes of long-struggling communities.North Carolina presents a conspicuous example of this trend, yet a similar story is playing out elsewhere. From industrial swaths of the Midwest to factory towns in the South, areas that suffered the most wrenching downsides of trade are now capturing the greatest shares of investment into forward-tilting industries, according to research from the Brookings Institution, a public policy research organization in Washington.As furniture manufacturing and textile jobs vanished, Chatham County, N.C., suffered the consequences for decades.Sebastian Siadecki for The New York TimesThe Plant in Pittsboro, N.C., is home to a variety of small businesses and includes outdoor event spaces and restaurants.Sebastian Siadecki for The New York TimesBrookings researchers examined pledges of private investment across the United States, using data compiled by the Biden administration as part of its campaign to subsidize domestic production of computer chips and electric vehicles. They also tapped a Massachusetts Institute of Technology database that tracks investments in clean energy. Over the last three years, $736 billion in investment has been promised for these key industries, the researchers found.When they mapped the investments, the Brookings team concluded that nearly a third of the total is flowing into communities that experienced the worst effects of the so-called China Shock — the factory closures that followed China’s entry to the global trading system in 2001.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Working-Class Voters Are Pivotal. Both Candidates Are Vying for Their Support.

    Kamala Harris’s plans offer a bigger boost for the working class, but Donald Trump seems to be convincing voters.Bernadette Daywalt had yet to decide whom to vote for in the presidential election. But the 69-year-old retiree said her decision would probably come down to economics.She and her 82-year-old sister have struggled to keep up with rising grocery prices over the past few years, and they now frequent a food pantry in the Philadelphia suburb where they live.“I think we’re headed downhill right now, with the cost of food, the cost of everything,” Ms. Daywalt said as she checked on her voter registration at an outreach van parked outside the Elmwood Park Zoo on a crisp October afternoon. She voted for Mr. Trump in 2016, and she felt better economically when he was president.Ms. Daywalt’s perceptions underscore a tough reality facing Democrats, who have been trying to recapture a working-class vote that has been slipping away from them.Many economists say Vice President Kamala Harris’s economic proposals would do more to help everyday Americans than the agenda put forward by former President Donald J. Trump. One model suggests that her package would boost post-tax income for the poorest Americans by 18 percent by 2026, much more than the 1.4 percent bump Mr. Trump’s ideas would offer.Income Effects of Trump vs. Harris Economic ProposalsAfter tax and transfers, estimates from the Penn Wharton Budget Model suggest that Kamala Harris’s proposals would boost low-income groups while costing rich ones.

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    Percent Change as of 2026
    Notes: Percent changes are from the baseline expectation for income in 2026. Baseline income is about $20,000 for the bottom quintile, $81,400 for the middle quintile and $327,000 for the group in the 90-95 percent range.Source: Penn Wharton Budget ModelBy The New York TimesWe are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Boeing Reaches New Deal With Union in Hopes of Ending Strike

    The aerospace manufacturer’s largest union said it would put the contract to a vote on Monday by its 33,000 members, who rejected two earlier agreements.Boeing’s largest union said on Thursday that it would hold a vote on a new contract offer, after workers rejected two earlier proposals. The union’s 33,000 members have been on strike since Sept. 13, dealing a damaging blow to the struggling aerospace manufacturer.The offer was negotiated by company and union leaders, with help from Biden administration officials, including the acting labor secretary, Julie Su. In a statement, the union encouraged workers to accept the offer in voting scheduled for Monday.“It is time for our members to lock in these gains and confidently declare victory,” said a statement from the leaders of two chapters of the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers, who represent the workers on strike. “We believe asking members to stay on strike longer wouldn’t be right as we have achieved so much success.”If workers do not take the deal, they “risk a regressive or lesser offer in the future,” the union leaders warned. District 751 of the union represents the vast majority of the workers, while another chapter, District W24, represents the rest.The workers mostly support the company’s commercial airplane division in the Seattle area, where Boeing builds most such jets. They walked off the job after 95 percent of those voting rejected a contract that union and company leaders had negotiated. The workers rejected a second offer with better terms last week, with 64 percent voting against the proposal. The union has not said how many people participated in either vote.The new contract offer represents a slight improvement over the recently rejected proposal. It would raise wages cumulatively by more than 43 percent over the four years of the contract, up from nearly 40 percent in the last offer, according to details shared by the union. The deal also includes a $12,000 bonus for agreeing to the contract, which can be diverted in any amount to employee retirement plans. That figure combines a $7,000 ratification bonus and a $5,000 one-time retirement contribution in the previous offer.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Friday’s jobs report is expected to show the slowest pace of hiring in years

    Economists surveyed by Dow Jones expect the Bureau of Labor Statistics to report Friday that payrolls expanded by just 100,000 on the month, the lowest in nearly four years.
    Whatever the results, markets may choose to look through the report, as multiple one-time hits including strikes and storms dampened hiring.
    Indicators leading up to the much-watched jobs report show that hiring has continued apace and layoffs are low.

    Hiring signs outside a Stewart’s gas station in Catskill, New York, US, on Wednesday, Oct. 2, 2024. 
    Angus Mordant | Bloomberg | Getty Images

    Powerful hurricanes and a major labor strike could take a chunk out of the nonfarm payrolls count for October, which is expected to be the slowest month for job creation in nearly four years.
    Economists surveyed by Dow Jones expect the Bureau of Labor Statistics to report Friday that payrolls expanded by just 100,000 on the month, held back by hurricanes Helene and Milton as well as the strike at Boeing. If their prediction is accurate, it would be the lowest job total since December 2020 and a huge drop from September’s 254,000.

    The report, which will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET, is also expected, however, to indicate that the unemployment rate will be unchanged at 4.1%.

    “When we look through that [headline jobs number], the unemployment rate will remain low, and I think wages will grow faster than inflation, and both those things are going to underscore the health of the U.S. economy,” said Michael Arone, chief investment strategist at State Street Global Advisors.
    On wages, average hourly earnings are projected to rise 0.3% for the month and 4% from a year ago, the annual figure being the same as September and furthering the narrative that inflation is sticky but not accelerating.

    Whatever the results, markets may choose to look through the report, as so many one-time hits dampened hiring.
    “The top-line numbers will be a little bit noisy, but I think there’ll be enough there to continue to determine that the soft landing is intact and that the U.S. economy remains in good shape,” Arone added.

    The hurricanes caused what could be historic levels of monetary damage, while the Boeing strike has sidelined 33,000 workers.
    Goldman Sachs estimates that Helene shaved as much as 50,000 off the payrolls count, though Hurricane Milton probably happened too late to affect the October count. The Boeing strike, meanwhile, could lower the total by 41,000, added Goldman, which is forecasting total payrolls growth of 95,000.

    Data has been solid

    Yet indicators leading up to the much-watched jobs report show that hiring has continued apace and layoffs are low, despite the damage done from the storms and the strikes.
    Payrolls processing firm ADP reported this week that private companies hired 233,000 new workers in October, well above the forecast, while initial jobless claims fell to 216,000, equaling the lowest level since late April.
    Still, the White House is estimating that the events cumulatively may hit the payrolls count by as many as 100,000. The “disruptions will make interpreting this month’s jobs report harder than usual,” Jared Bernstein, chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, said Wednesday.
    Jobs numbers in general have been noisy in the post-Covid era.

    Earlier this year, the BLS announced benchmark revisions that knocked off 818,000 from previous counts in the 12-month period through March 2024. Year to date through July, revisions have taken a net 310,000 off the initial estimates.
    “This report will reinforce the big picture, which is that the labor market is still growing. But the fact is that it’s growing but slowing,” said Julia Pollak, chief economist at ZipRecruiter. “Growth is slowing and also becoming more narrowly concentrated in just a couple of sectors.”
    Leading areas of job creation this year have been government, health care, and leisure and hospitality. Pollak said that continues to be the case, particularly for health care, while ZipRecruiter also has seen more interest in skilled trades along with finance and related businesses such as insurance.
    However, she said the general picture is of a slowing market that will need some help from Federal Reserve interest rate cuts to stop the slide.
    “For the last two quarters now, job growth has been below the pre-pandemic average, and job gains have been unusually narrowly distributed,” Pollak said. “That has real effects on job seekers and workers who felt their leverage erode, and many of them are struggling to find sort of acceptable jobs. So I do think the Fed’s attention should be firmly on the labor market.” More

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    The Jobs Report on Friday May Be a Fluke and a Political Football

    This close to an election, even the driest economic data can be politicized. So if the monthly jobs report lands on Friday with an unusually low number of jobs created in October, Republican campaigns may blast it out as a sign that the labor market has taken a turn for the worse. (Last month, Senator Marco Rubio of Florida reacted to a strong report by calling it “fake.”)That wouldn’t necessarily be true.The last couple of months have seen an unusual amount of disruption. First came the Boeing strike in September, taking some 35,000 workers off payrolls, plus another 6,000 from smaller strikes. Then came Hurricanes Helene and Milton, which spiked unemployment claims by about 35,000 in early October.All in all, economists are forecasting a gain of 110,000 jobs in October. That would be a significant step down from the 186,000 jobs added on average over each of the previous three months, pending any revisions. But it also wouldn’t be an accurate representation of employers’ appetite to hire.In general, a broad spectrum of data suggests that the labor market has settled into a moderate pace of job growth, enough to soak up the 150,000 or so people who enter the work force each month. The unemployment rate has fallen back to 4.1 percent, and overall economic growth came in strong last quarter, showing that the foundations of the economy are sound. More

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    Inflation Cooled Further in September, PCE Index Shows

    Overall inflation slowed in September from a year earlier, though some signs of stubbornness lingered under the surface.Inflation has been cooling for two years, and fresh data released on Thursday showed that trend continued in September. Prices climbed just 2.1 percent compared with a year earlier.That is nearly back to the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent inflation goal — good news for both the Fed and the White House. It is also slower than the previous reading, which stood at 2.3 percent.Still, the report also shows evidence that price increases remain stickier under the surface.A closely watched inflation measure that strips out volatile food and fuel costs to give a sense of the underlying trend in prices was up 2.7 percent in September compared with a year earlier. That “core” inflation figure was unchanged from the previous reading, a sign that it was proving slow to cool. And on a monthly basis, core inflation actually accelerated slightly.While the figures were largely in line with what economists had expected, the stubbornness in core inflation reinforced that the Fed’s campaign to wrestle price increases back under control was not entirely finished.“All in all, this is a relatively good report,” said Omair Sharif, founder of the firm Inflation Insights. But he added that he thought core inflation could remain too quick for comfort in coming months, before fading more completely early next year.“It’s not a mission accomplished kind of number,” he said.The Fed lifted interest rates sharply in 2022 and early 2023 to try to slow the economy and wrestle inflation under control. But officials slashed them by half a percentage point in September, cutting interest rates for the first time in four years.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Key Fed inflation rate hits 2.1% in September, as expected

    The personal consumption expenditures price index showed a seasonally adjusted 0.2% increase for the month, with the 12-month inflation rate at 2.1%, both in line with Dow Jones estimates.
    However, the core inflation rate was at 2.7% after the measure increased 0.3% on a monthly basis.
    Initial filings for unemployment benefits totaled 216,000 for the week ending Oct. 26, a decrease of 12,000 and below the forecast for 230,000.

    Inflation increased slightly in September and moved closer to the Federal Reserve’s target, according to a Commerce Department report Thursday.
    The personal consumption expenditures price index showed a seasonally adjusted 0.2% increase for the month, with the 12-month inflation rate at 2.1%, both in line with Dow Jones estimates. The Fed uses the PCE reading as its primary inflation gauge, though policymakers also follow a variety of other indicators.

    Fed officials target inflation at a 2% annual rate, a level it has not achieved since February 2021. The September headline rate was down 0.2 percentage point from August.
    Though the headline number showed the central bank nearing its goal, the inflation rate was at 2.7% excluding food and energy, after the so-called core measure increased 0.3% on a monthly basis. The annual rate was 0.1 percentage point higher than forecast but the same as in August.
    The move in inflation was tilted towards services prices, which increased 0.3%, while goods prices decreased 0.1%, the fourth outright deflation figure in the past five months for the category. Housing prices eased off their pace, rising 0.3%. Energy goods and services fell 2%.
    The report comes with markets betting heavily that the Fed will cut its benchmark short-term borrowing rate when it meets next week. In September, the Fed slashed the rate by a half percentage point, a move virtually unprecedented during an economic expansion.
    Policymakers have expressed confidence that inflation is heading back to target while at the same time showing concern over the state of the labor market despite most indicators showing that hiring is continuing and layoffs are low.

    A separate report Thursday morning reinforced the notion that companies are mostly hanging onto their workers.
    Initial filings for unemployment benefits totaled 216,000 for the week ending Oct. 26, a decrease of 12,000 from the previous period’s upwardly revised level, according to the Labor Department. The total was also below the 230,000 forecast.
    Despite worries over inflation, the Commerce Department report showed income and spending held up during the month.
    Personal income increased 0.3%, slightly higher than the August number and in line with expectations. Consumer spending rose 0.5%, topping the outlook by 0.1 percentage point. The personal saving rate moved down to 4.6%, its lowest of the year.
    In yet another data point Thursday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the employment cost index increased 0.8% in the third quarter, 0.1 percentage below forecast. On a 12-month basis, the index, which measures wages, salaries and benefits, increased 3.9%, compared to a 2.4% increase in the consumer price index. More

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    Euro zone inflation rises to higher-than-expected 2%, weakening case for jumbo rate cut

    Inflation in the euro area rose from 1.7% to 2% in October, flash figures showed Thursday, coming in slightly higher than the 1.9% forecast.
    Core inflation and services inflation were both unchanged on the previous month.
    Markets currently expect the European Central Bank to cut interest rates by another 25 basis points in December, with one analyst saying the latest data would end debate over whether a larger 50-basis-point cut is warranted.

    Line-up of pumpkins in the Netherlands, on Oct. 27, 2024.
    Nurphoto | Nurphoto | Getty Images

    Inflation in the 20-nation euro zone rose to 2% in October, preliminary figures released by statistics agency Eurostat showed Thursday.
    Economists polled by Reuters had forecast a headline figure of 1.9%. The September headline reading was revised down to 1.7% from 1.8% on Oct. 17, below market expectations.

    The biggest upward pull in the headline rate came from food, alcohol and tobacco, where price rises accelerated to 2.9% from 2.4%.
    Core inflation, which excludes those volatile components along with energy prices, was unchanged at 2.7%, slightly higher than the 2.6% expected. Services inflation — an important gauge of domestic price pressures — also held steady at 3.9%.

    The euro was up 0.15% against the U.S. dollar following the release, trading at a two-week high of $1.087.
    The fresh Thursday inflation print was seen as crucial in judging whether the European Central Bank could consider implementing a jumbo half-percentage-point cut in interest rates at its next meeting in December.
    The central bank has so far trimmed rates three times this year, in quarter-point increments that altogether took the central bank’s key rate from 4% to 3.25%.

    Markets are currently pricing another 25-basis-point reduction in December.

    Euro zone growth

    Traders are also considering the latest growth figures for the euro area, which showed better-than-expected 0.4% expansion in the third quarter, even as analysts predicted further weakness ahead.
    The ECB said during its October meeting that the process of disinflation was “well on track” and that sluggishness in the euro zone’s economic activity had added to its confidence that inflation will not resurge dramatically.
    “Hotter eurozone inflation, stronger growth and record low unemployment wipe out bets for a 50 [basis point] cut,” Kyle Chapman, foreign exchange market analyst at Ballinger Group, said in a note.
    Chapman said that, while an uptick in consumer price growth was expected toward the end of the year, services inflation remained sticky.
    “A big concern underpinning the risks of inflation undershooting the target was a potential tipping point with the labor market, the surprising resilience of which could be at risk of a sharp unwind in labor hoarding if consumption worsens. That concern is no longer so significant,” Chapman stressed, pointing to this week’s growth and employment figures.
    “Back-to-back 25 [basis point] moves are the way to go. The need for below-neutral rates to rescue a contracting eurozone economy is fading from the discussion, and that negates the need to hurry the easing cycle, particularly with services inflation struggling to come unstuck.” More