Evelyn Reynolds

The personal consumption expenditures price index excluding food and energy costs increased 0.4% for the month and 2.8% from a year ago, as expected.
Headline PCE, including the volatile food and energy categories, increased 0.3% monthly and 2.4% on a 12-month basis, also in-line.
Personal income rose 1%, well above the forecast for 0.3%. Spending decreased 0.1% versus the estimate for a 0.2% gain.
Initial jobless claims totaled 215,000 for the week ended Feb. 24, up 13,000 from the previous period and more than the 210,000 estimate.

Inflation rose in line with expectations in January, according to an important gauge the Federal Reserve uses as it deliberates cutting interest rates.
The personal consumption expenditures price index excluding food and energy costs increased 0.4% for the month and 2.8% from a year ago, as expected according to the Dow Jones consensus estimates. The monthly gain was just 0.1% in December and 2.9% from the year prior.

Headline PCE, including the volatile food and energy categories, increased 0.3% monthly and 2.4% on a 12-month basis, also as forecast, according to the numbers released Thursday by the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis. The respective December numbers were 0.1% and 2.6%.
The moves came amid an unexpected jump in personal income, which rose 1%, well above the forecast for 0.3%. Spending decreased 0.1% versus the estimate for a 0.2% gain.
January’s price rises reflected an ongoing shift to services over goods as the economy normalizes from the Covid pandemic disruptions.
Services prices increased 0.6% on the month while goods fell 0.2%; on a 12-month basis, services rose 3.9% and goods were down 0.5%. Within those categories, food prices accelerated 0.5%, offset by a 1.4% slide in energy. On a year-over-year basis, food was up 1.4% while energy fell 4.9%.
Both the headline and core measures remain ahead of the Fed’s goal for 2% annual inflation, even though the core reading on an annual basis was the lowest since February 2021. While the Fed officially uses the headline measure, policymakers tend to pay more attention to core as a better indication of where long-term trends are heading.

CHICAGO, ILLINOIS – FEBRUARY 13: Customers shop at a grocery store on February 13, 2024 in Chicago, Illinois. Grocery prices are up 0.4% from December and 1.2% over the last year, the slowest annual increase since June 2021. (Photo by Scott Olson/Getty Images)
Scott Olson | Getty Images News | Getty Images

“Overall, [the report] is meeting the expectations, and some of the worst fears in the market weren’t met,” said Stephen Gallagher, chief U.S. economist at Societe Generale. “The key is we’re not seeing the broad nature of increases that we had been more fearful of.”
Wall Street reacted little to the news, with stock market futures up slightly and Treasury yields slightly lower. Futures markets where traders bet on the direction of interest rates also indicated little movement, with pricing tilted toward the Fed’s first rate cut coming in June.
Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said the recent data shows the road back to the central bank’s 2% inflation goal will be “bumpy.”
“They’ve come in higher than people hoped, but if you look over the long arc, the line is still going down,” he told an audience at a banking conference in Atlanta. “That’s an important thing to keep in mind.”
Like Bostic, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, also speaking Thursday, said he expects rate cuts later this year but didn’t specify when. Bostic said he expects the first cut in the summertime.
Thursday’s BEA report also showed that consumers are continuing to dip into savings as prices stay elevated. The personal savings rate was 3.8% on the month, slightly higher than December but off a full percentage point from where it was as recently as June 2023.
In other economic news, a Labor Department report showed that companies are still reluctant to lay off workers.
Initial jobless claims totaled 215,000 for the week ended Feb. 24, up 13,000 from the previous period and more than the 210,000 Dow Jones estimate but still largely in keeping with recent trends. However, continuing claims, which run a week behind, rose to just above 1.9 million, a gain of 45,000 and higher than the FactSet estimate for 1.88 million.
The reports come as central bank officials mull the future of monetary policy following 11 interest rate increases totaling 5.25 percentage points. Running from March 2022 to July 2023, the hikes came as the Fed battled inflation that peaked at a more than 40-year high in mid-2022.
Officials have said in recent days that they expect to begin reversing the increases at some point this year. However, the timing and extent of the policy easing is uncertain as recent data has indicated that inflation could be more stubborn than expected.
“Hot January inflation data adds to uncertainty and pushes back rate cut expectations,” said David Alcaly, lead macroeconomic strategist at Lazard Asset Management. “But odds remain that this is a speed bump and that, while there may be additional short-term swings in market narrative, it will ultimately matter more how deep any rate cutting cycle goes over time than when it begins.”
January’s consumer price index data raised fears of persistently high inflation, though many economists saw the rise as impacted by seasonal factors and shelter increases unlikely to persist.
While the CPI is used as an input to the PCE, Fed officials focus more on the latter as it adjusts for substitutions consumers make for goods and services as prices fall. Where the CPI is viewed as a simpler price measure, the PCE is viewed as more representative of what people are actually buying.
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In the nearly four years that have passed since the Covid-19 pandemic upended the U.S. economy, the advancement for Black people have been unmistakable.
“This recovery really stretched the limits of what policymakers thought was possible for Black workers,” said Jessica Fulton, interim president at the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies.
One of the areas where the greatest discrepancies exist for underrepresented groups is technology, where Black people and others hold few positions and even fewer are in management roles.
There are several groups working to address the disparity, with varying levels of success.

Ali and Jamila Wright, co-owners of Brooklyn Tea.
Courtesy: Brooklyn Tea

Looking at the state of Black employment in America tells a mixed story: Much progress has been made in the age of the Covid-19 pandemic and beyond, but much is left to be done.
In the nearly four years that have passed since the pandemic upended the U.S. economy, the advancement for Black people has been unmistakable: a surge in earnings that outdid the gains for both white and Hispanic people, an unemployment rate that has fallen more than a percentage point from where it stood in January 2020 and a general sense that the collective consciousness has been raised regarding inequality in the workplace.

Yet, there are still racial discrepancies in terms of earnings. Black workers are still notably underrepresented in some professions, particularly high-end tech, and efforts to address some of these issues have fallen out of favor amid criticism that they have gone too far and are inefficient.
On balance, though, there’s a feeling of optimism that real progress has been made.
“This recovery really stretched the limits of what policymakers thought was possible for Black workers,” said Jessica Fulton, interim president at the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies, a Washington, D.C.-based think tank that focuses on issues for people and communities of color. “We were in a situation where folks accepted that Black unemployment was going to always be high and there was nothing that they could do about it. So I think this is an opportunity to continue to push the limits of what’s possible.”
When looking at the data, the numbers are encouraging.
The Black unemployment rate in January was 5.3%, up a touch from December but still near the all-time low of 4.8% hit in April 2023. Black employment in the month totaled nearly 20.9 million people, up 6.3% from February 2020, the month before the pandemic hit, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

From a pay standpoint, the numbers are even more encouraging. For Black workers, weekly before-tax earnings as of the end of 2023 have risen 24.8% since the first quarter of 2020. That’s more than the 18.1% increase for white people and the 22.6% rise for Hispanics during the period. Of the groups the BLS measures, only Asians, at 25.1% had seen bigger pay gains.
Still, the unemployment rate is lower for white people, by a wide margin at 3.4% in January.
“High unemployment for Black workers is a solvable problem,” Fulton said. “There are challenges we need to address. We need to figure out how to address discrimination, we need to figure out how do we address unequal access to high-quality workforce development. We need to figure out how to address labor loopholes.”

Focus on tech

One of the areas where the greatest discrepancies exist for underrepresented groups is technology, where Black people and others hold few positions and even fewer are in management roles.
The situation is well-documented. While Black people make up about 12% of the U.S. labor force, they hold just 8% of all tech jobs and a mere 3% of executive positions, according to a McKinsey & Company study released in 2023.
There are several groups working to address the disparity, with varying levels of success.
Those involved tell similar stories. Black workers are interested in tech and believe there are opportunities. Companies don’t understand the real-world benefits of a diverse workplace. Opportunities are limited amid a backlash against the diversity, equity and inclusion push.
“Diversity is not just a warm and fuzzy feeling. You are proven by numbers to get a better return on investment,” said Autumn Cox, a software engineer at a major tech company in the Northwest that she asked not to be named because the company hadn’t given permission for this article.
Cox, who is Black, holds a prominent position in tech, where she has worked for well over a decade while both climbing the corporate ladder and trying to assist those in her cohort achieve success as well.

Autumn Cox.
Courtesy: Autumn Cox

Along with her work responsibilities, she’s involved with several organizations looking to help others achieve in tech. They include Rewriting the Code, a global network founded in 2017 that focuses on women, and MilSpouse Coders, which assists military spouses and where Cox serves as education board chair.
Companies that build diversity the right way prosper, she said. Those that don’t have suffered on a tangible level in the form of products that are inadequate and data bases that don’t reflect real-world dynamics.
“The lack of diversity has left very big, wonderful tech companies with egg on their face, because they’ve had premature products,” Cox said. “One of the best ways to fight data bias is with diversity, and it’s diversity in all different backgrounds. If you look at the boards of most big AI companies, do you see diversity there?”
Indeed, instances of bias along racial lines is still seen as a significant problem, particularly in tech.
Some 24% of tech workers said they experienced racial discrimination at work in 2022, up from 18% the prior year, according to a survey by tech career marketplace Dice. While some companies have changed their corporate culture, many others remain behind.
“There are some good stories out there,” said Sue Harnett, founder of Rewriting the Code. “Goldman Sachs and Bank of America do an outstanding job, not only trying to recruit, but actually bringing them on board and converting them from being interns to full-time employees.”

Rewriting the Code collaborates with workers and companies to address diversity issues. Specifically, the organization focuses on college women and follows them through the first six years or so on their career path.
On the downside, Harnett still sees too many token measures that don’t go far enough.
For instance, she said some companies focus on Historically Black Colleges and Universities, which only goes so far in being able to find a capable and diverse workforce.
“I cringe when I talk with a company and ask them about their diversity recruiting strategy and their answer is they work with HBCUs,” she said. “That can be part of the strategy, but it shouldn’t be the only strategy.”
Harnett is sympathetic, though, with how tough the job can be.
“The amount of money that you have to put in to try and find this talent can be overwhelming, but I think there are solutions out there, so I’m personally optimistic,” she said. “I wish we made more progress by now. But the companies are ones that will drive this.”

The small business view

Sometimes the answers are found closer to home.
Ali and Jamila Wright are co-owners of Brooklyn Tea, a small business based in the New York City borough that has expanded to Atlanta and is looking for more growth opportunities.
From a hiring strategy, they focus almost solely on underrepresented groups who have a variety of employment needs. For instance, they hire actors in between shows or other workers in other professions who have been laid off and need a bridge until they find other employment.

Ali and Jamila Wright, co-owners of Brooklyn Tea.
Courtesy: Brooklyn Tea

“All of our employees are people of color,” Ali Wright said. “We have people of color, we have people that are binary or nonbinary. So being that we are diverse ourselves, it just makes it easier to hire people that we know are systematically disadvantaged.”
Brooklyn Tea has been a beneficiary of a relatively booming small business environment, particularly for Black and Latino entrepreneurs.
Black-owned businesses as a share of Black households surged from 5% to 11% from 2019 to 2022, the fastest pace in 30 years, according to the Small Business Administration. The surge has come as the number and dollar value of loans to Black-owned businesses has more than doubled and as the share of the SBA’s loan portfolio to minority-owned businesses has jumped to more than 32% from 23% since 2020.
However, race remains a tenuous dynamic in the U.S., and there’s always the possibility that progress can be rolled back, particularly considering a growingly hostile attitude toward DEI initiatives. Critics say the approach has resulted in a misallocation of resources, particularly following controversies at Ivy League schools.
“From 2020 until 2022, that’s when we all felt the most potential and the most hope, even in the midst of a pandemic,” Jamila Wright said. “We were receiving so much funding and just collaboration from corporate entities, and that attack on DEI has impacted some of the businesses, including ours.”
But the controversies have mainly triggered a reexamination of how to achieve diversity, not a backdown on initiatives in general.
For instance, a Conference Board survey in December found no human resources executives were planning to scale back diversity efforts. Still, Jamila Wright said she is cautious about the future.
“I think history has taught us that nothing, when it comes to race in America, blows over quickly,” she said. “So it’s just us trying to figure out how to be savvy in situations where we shouldn’t have to be savvy. That has been something that we have to become equipped to do.” More

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said market expectations are too high that the U.S. economy will see a soft landing.
However, he doesn’t expect a replay of some of the other serious downturns the U.S. economy has faced, such as the 2008 financial crisis.
Higher interest rates along with a recession could hit areas such as commercial real estate and regional banks hard, but with limited macroeconomic impacts, Dimon said.

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon thinks there’s a better-than-even chance that the U.S. is heading for a recession, though he doesn’t see systemic issues looming.
Speaking Monday from the JPMorgan High Yield and Leveraged Finance Conference in Miami, the head of the largest U.S. bank by assets said markets probably aren’t pricing in a strong enough probability that interest rates could stay higher for longer.

Dimon noted “there are things out there which are kind of concerning,” and he disagreed with the high level of probability being assigned to the economy missing a recession.
“The market is kind of pricing in a soft landing. That may very well happen,” he told CNBC’s Leslie Picker. “But the [market’s] odds are 70 to 80 percent. I’ll give you half that, that’s all.”
The comments come as the market indeed has had to reprice its expectations for monetary policy. Where futures traders earlier in the year had been assigning a high probability to an aggressive series of interest rate cuts starting in March, they now see the easing not starting until June or July, with three cuts now priced in — half of the prior expectations.
Along with the elevated rates, markets have had to contend with the Federal Reserve rolling off its bond holdings, a process known as quantitative tightening. While the central bank is expected to start tapering the program soon, it remains another factor in tight monetary policy.
“It’s always a mistake to look at just the year,” Dimon said. “All these factors we talked about: QT, fiscal spending deficits, the geopolitics, those things may play out over multiple years. But they will play out and they will have an effect and in my mind I’m just kind of cautious about everything.”

However, Dimon said he doesn’t expect a replay of some of the other serious downturns the U.S. economy has faced, such as the 2008 financial crisis that saw Wall Street plunge as banks were hit with fallout from the subprime mortgage industry collapse.
Higher interest rates along with a recession could hit areas such as commercial real estate and regional banks hard, but with limited macroeconomic impacts, Dimon said.
“If we have a recession, yes, it’ll get worse. If we don’t have recession, I think most people will be able to muddle through this,” he said. “Part of this is just a normalization process. [Rates] were so low for so long. If rates go up, and we have recession, there will be real estate problems, and some banks will have a much bigger real estate problem than others.”
As far as regional banks go, he labeled issues that hit institutions such as Silicon Valley Bank and New York Community Bank as “idiosyncratic” and said private credit could take hit but not at a systemic level.
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