Evelyn Reynolds

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    Fed Is in No Rush to Cut Rates as Economy Holds Up

    Federal Reserve officials are expected to leave interest rates unchanged at their meeting this week. They will also release a fresh set of economic projections.Federal Reserve officials are entering an uncertain summer. They are not sure how quickly inflation will cool, how much the economy is likely to slow or just how long interest rates need to stay high in order to make sure that quick price increases are fully vanquished.What they do know is that, for now, the job market and broader economy are holding up even in the face of higher borrowing costs. And given that, the Fed has a safe play: Do nothing.That is the message central bankers are likely to send at their two-day meeting this week, which concludes on Wednesday. Officials are expected to leave interest rates unchanged while avoiding any firm commitment about when they will cut them.Policymakers will release a fresh set of economic projections, and those could show that central bankers now expect to make just two interest rate cuts in 2024, down from three when they last released forecasts in March. Economists think that there is a small chance that officials could even predict just one cut this year. But whatever they forecast, officials are likely to avoid giving a clear signal of when rate reductions will begin.Investors do not expect a rate cut at the Fed’s next meeting in July, after which policymakers will not meet again until September. That gives officials several months of data and plenty of time to think about their next move. And because the economy is holding up, central bankers have the wiggle room to keep rates unchanged as they wait to see if inflation will decelerate without worrying that they are on the brink of plunging the economy into a sharp downturn.“They’ll continue to suggest that rate cuts are coming later this year,” said Gennadiy Goldberg, head of U.S. rates strategy at TD Securities. He said that he expected a reduction in September, and that he did not think the Fed would give any hint at timing this week.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    U.A.W. Reaches Accord on Pay and Safety at E.V. Battery Plant

    The agreement, if ratified, will cover 1,600 workers making batteries for General Motors in Ohio. The union said it would be a model for efforts elsewhere.The United Automobile Workers union on Monday announced a tentative contract agreement at an Ohio factory making batteries for electric vehicles, a step that it called a milestone in enhancing pay and safety in the E.V. supply chain.The accord covers 1,600 workers at a Lordstown plant operated by Ultium Cells, a joint venture between General Motors and a South Korean partner, LG Energy Solution. It produces batteries for G.M. electric vehicles.The workers had not been unionized when the plant opened in 2022, but they were brought into the U.A.W. under the terms of the national contract the union negotiated with G.M. last fall. This new contract, subject to ratification by the plant’s workers, defines wages and working conditions specific to that location.Shawn Fain, the U.A.W. president, said in a letter to union members that the accord was “a game changer for the electric vehicle battery industry.”G.M. and Ultium issued statements saying they were pleased with the agreement.The union said it planned to use the Ultium Cells contract as a template as it negotiated local agreements at other battery plants that G.M. and its Detroit rivals are building. G.M. started production this year at a battery plant in Spring Hill, Tenn., and has another under construction in Lansing, Mich.Ford Motor plans two battery plants in Kentucky, one in Tennessee and one in Michigan. Stellantis, the maker of Chrysler, Jeep, Dodge, and Ram vehicles, plans two battery plants in Indiana. Aside from one Ford location, those plants involve joint ventures that were brought under the U.A.W. umbrella under the national contracts the union signed with Ford and Stellantis last fall.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    U.S. Adds 272,000 Jobs in May, an Unexpectedly Strong Pace of Hiring

    Hiring was unexpectedly robust in May, with a gain of 272,000 jobs, but it wasn’t all good news: The unemployment rate ticked up, to 4 percent.The U.S. economy keeps throwing curveballs, and the May employment report is the latest example.Employers added 272,000 jobs last month, the Labor Department reported on Friday, well above what economists had expected as hiring had gradually slowed. That’s an increase from the 232,000-job average over the previous 12 months, scrambling the picture of an economy that’s relaxing into a more sustainable pace.Most concerning for the Federal Reserve, which meets next week and again in July, wages rose 4.1 percent from a year ago — a sign that inflation might not yet be vanquished.“For those who may have thought they would see a July rate cut, that door has largely been shut,” said Beth Ann Bovino, chief U.S. economist for U.S. Bank. Although wage gains are good for workers, she noted, persistent price increases undermine their spending power.Stocks fell shortly after the report was published, then recovered most of their losses by the end of the day. Government bond yields, which track expectations for Fed rate moves, rose sharply and remained elevated through the trading day.Wage growth ticked up in MayYear-over-year percentage change in earnings vs. inflation More

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    Market backs off on hopes for interest rate cuts following strong jobs report

    Beyond signaling a still-vibrant labor market, Friday’s jobs report at the very least adds to the narrative that the Fed doesn’t have to rush to lower interest rates.
    Following the jobs numbers, futures traders cut bets on rate cuts. Pricing in fed funds futures pointed to almost no chance of a reduction at either the FOMC’s meeting next week or on July 30-31.

    Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange during afternoon trading on June 03, 2024 in New York City. 
    Michael M. Santiago | Getty Images

    May’s surprising pace of job growth and wage rise added to the conviction that the Federal Reserve will stay on hold through this summer and possibly beyond.
    The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday that nonfarm payrolls increased by 272,000 for the month, considerably higher than the Wall Street consensus of 190,000 and well above April’s comparatively muted gain of 165,000. In addition, average hourly earnings rose 4.1% over the past 12 months, more than expected.

    Beyond signaling a still-vibrant labor market, the data at the very least adds to the narrative that the Fed doesn’t have to rush to lower interest rates.
    As inflation runs above the central bank’s 2% target, there’s scant evidence that higher rates are endangering broad metrics of economic growth.
    “I’ve been a little flummoxed at the parlor game of when will the Fed start cutting,” said Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab. “I’ve been more in the camp that neither of the components of the Fed’s dual mandate are pointing to the need to start cutting, and higher-for-longer means nothing could happen this year.”
    The Fed’s “dual mandate” entails maintaining both full employment and stable prices.
    Even with the unemployment rate rising to 4% in May, the labor market appears vibrant.

    However, on the other side of the mandate, inflation is still running well above the Fed’s target. Most gauges have prices rising annually at about a 3% rate, down significantly from the peaks of mid-2022 but still running hot.

    Lowering expectations

    Following the jobs numbers, futures traders cut bets on rate cuts.
    Pricing in fed funds futures pointed to almost no chance of a reduction at either the Federal Open Market Committee’s meeting next week or on July 30-31. From there, pricing indicates about a 50-50 chance of a September move, and only about a 46% probability that the Fed will follow up with a second cut before the end of the year, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch measure Friday afternoon.
    All of those probabilities were down sharply from Thursday levels.
    Investors, though, shouldn’t get too pessimistic, according to Rick Rieder, chief investment officer of global fixed income for money management giant BlackRock. He pointed to softness in demand for workers as shown by a report earlier this week indicating that job openings are continuing to decelerate.
    Moreover, the household survey, which is used to calculate the unemployment rate, showed a decrease in employment of 408,000 and a continuing trend of part-time employment far outpacing full-time positions.
    “And thus, the Federal Reserve’s mandate of price stability and full employment comes very much into balance,” Rieder wrote in a post-report analysis. “With these conditions, the Fed can lower the Fed Funds rate from very restrictive territory to merely restrictive positioning.”
    “We believe the Committee can still start cutting the policy rate by 25 basis points at its September meeting, with a desire to get one more cut done this year, but inflation readings from here need to be supportive of this,” he added.
    Similarly, Citigroup, long above consensus on Wall Street as the firm continued to expect aggressive rate cuts, said it now sees the Fed not moving until September but then continuing to cut rates from that point.
    “The jobs report does not change our view that hiring demand, and the broader economy, is slowing and that this will ultimately provoke the Fed to react with a series of cuts beginning in the next few months,” Citigroup economist Andrew Hollenhorst wrote.

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    Here’s where the jobs are for May 2024 — in one chart

    The U.S. economy added 272,000 jobs for the month, coming out significantly higher than the Dow Jones consensus estimate of 190,000.
    Employment swung higher in several industries, with health care leading the way again this month, followed by government and hospitality. These sectors also accounted for more than half of the month’s total gains.
    Meanwhile, job losses occurred in department stores and furniture and home furnishings retailers.

    Job growth in May was surprisingly strong, pushing back on lingering fears of a broader economic slowdown and likely slowing the Federal Reserve’s rate-cutting timeline.
    The U.S. economy added 272,000 jobs for the month, coming out significantly higher than the Dow Jones consensus estimate of 190,000. That’s also higher than the average monthly gain of 232,000 over the last 12 months, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

    In May, employment swung higher in several industries, with health care leading the way again this month, followed by government and hospitality. The three sectors, respectively, added 68,000, 43,000 and 42,000 jobs, similar to trends seen over the past year. These sectors also accounted for more than half of the month’s total gains. The combined health-care and social assistance space netted more than 83,000 jobs in May.

    The professional, scientific and technical services sector was also a bright spot in May, as it added 32,000 jobs during the month, which is much higher than the average monthly gain of 19,000 over the past 12 months.
    On the other hand, social assistance employment trended higher as it added 15,000 last month, below the sector’s average of 22,000 jobs per month seen over the last year. Meanwhile, job losses occurred in department stores and furniture and home furnishings retailers.
    Other major industries — including oil and gas extraction, construction, manufacturing, information and financial activities — all saw little or no change over the month in employment, per the report.
    Investors walked away from the report discouraged that the Federal Reserve would cut rates in June, noting that the increase in job growth and above-average wage growth paints a picture of a fairly strong consumer.
    “As has been the case recently, job growth was driven by non-cyclical areas like health care and government, but cyclical areas like leisure and hospitality were strong…this is likely to keep the Fed in a holding pattern, with the first cut likely coming only in September, assuming we continue to see softer inflation,” Sonu Varghese, global macro strategist at Carson Group, said on Friday.

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    Jobless rates rise in May for all racial groups except white Americans

    The unemployment rate rose for all racial groups except for white Americans in May.
    The uptick in jobless rates was more pronounced for Black men than women. Black men saw their unemployment rate jump to 6.4% from 5.2%.
    The number of eligible adults looking for jobs fell for white and Black workers, rose for Asian Americans and held steady for Hispanic workers.

    A representative speaks with a jobseeker at a job fair at Brunswick Community College in Bolivia, North Carolina, on April 11, 2024.
    Allison Joyce | Bloomberg | Getty Images

    The unemployment rate for white Americans held steady from April to May, bucking the trend for all other racial groups, according to data released Friday by the Labor Department.
    White unemployment remained at 3.5% last month, making the demographic group the only one that didn’t experience a rise in jobless rates from April to May. It also went against the overall unemployment rate, which edged higher to 4% from 3.9%.

    Meanwhile, the jobless rate for Black Americans rose to 6.1% from 5.6%. For Asian and Hispanic workers, respectively, it rose to 3.1% from 2.8%, and to 5% from 4.8%.

    “We obviously need to watch out for what’s happening with historically marginalized groups to make sure that the recovery gets experienced,” said Elise Gould, senior economist at the Economic Policy Institute.
    But Gould isn’t particularly worried about the uptick in jobless rates for certain demographics just yet. “We’re not seeing any real divergence from trends there,” she added.
    Gould noted that the trend was slightly stronger for Black men, who saw their unemployment rate jump to 6.4% from 5.2%, versus an increase to 5.2% from 5% for their female counterparts. The economist attributed this increase to labor force volatility and pointed out that the number has pretty much risen back to its previous levels from earlier this year.

    Among white workers, the labor force participation rate crept lower, to 62.2% from 62.3%.

    The overall labor force participation rate also fell to 62.5% from 62.7% and decreased to 62.9% from 63.2% for Black Americans. However, the metric rose to 65.3% from 64.7% for Asian Americans, while it held steady at 67.3% for Hispanic workers.
    — CNBC’s Gabriel Cortes contributed to this report.

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    What to Make of the Jobs Report’s Mixed Signals

    Sometimes, the many numbers included in the government’s monthly jobs report come together to paint a clear, coherent picture of the strength or weakness of the U.S. labor market.This is not one of those times.Instead, the data released by the Labor Department on Friday was a mess of conflicting signals. It couldn’t even agree on the most basic of questions: whether the economy is adding or losing jobs.The report showed that employers added 272,000 nonagricultural jobs in May, far more than forecasters were expecting. That figure is based on a survey of about 119,000 businesses, nonprofit organizations and government agencies.But the report also contains data from another survey, of about 60,000 households. That data showed that the number of people who were employed last month actually fell by 408,000, while the unemployment rate rose to 4 percent for the first time in more than two years.The two surveys measure slightly different things. The employer survey includes only employees, for example, while the household survey includes independent contractors and self-employed workers. But that doesn’t explain the discrepancy last month: Adjusting the household survey to align with the concepts used in the employer survey makes the job losses in May look larger, not smaller.That means that the conflicting pictures come down to some combination of measurement error and random noise. That is frustrating but not unusual: Over the long term, the two surveys generally tell similar stories, but over shorter periods they frequently diverge.Economists typically put more weight on the employer survey, which is much larger and is generally viewed as more reliable. But they aren’t sure which data to believe this time around. Some economists have argued that the household survey could be failing to capture fully the recent wave of immigration, leading it to undercount employment growth. But others have argued that the employer survey could be overstating hiring because it isn’t accounting properly for recent business failures, among other factors. More