Evelyn Reynolds

More stories

  • 175 Shares129 Views

    in Economy

    Fed meeting and inflation report both hit Wednesday, and the impact could be huge

    Wednesday features a one-two punch of news that starts in the morning with the pivotal consumer price index reading for May, and ends with the Fed’s policy meeting in the afternoon.
    Economists expect CPI to show just a 0.1% increase from April, though that still would equate to an aggregate annual rise of 3.4%. Core PCI is projected to show a 0.3% monthly gain and a 3.5% annual rate.
    When it comes to interest rates, the Fed will do nothing. However, officials will offer a variety of economic forecasting updates that will include the central bank’s much-watched “dot plot” of interest rate expectations.

    Jerome Powell, Chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve, speaks during the conference celebrating the Centennial of the Division of Research and Statistics, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in Washington D.C., United States on November 08, 2023. (Photo by Celal Gunes/Anadolu via Getty Images)
    Celal Gunes | Anadolu | Getty Images

    Wednesday is shaping up to be one of the most important days of the year for economic news, as investors will hear about the path of inflation and the manner in which the Federal Reserve plans to react.
    In a one-two punch that starts in the morning with the pivotal consumer price index reading for May and ends with the Fed’s policy meeting in the afternoon, vital signals will be sent about the direction of the economy and whether policymakers can soon take their foot off the brake.

    The day “packs months of macro risk into one day,” wrote UBS economist Jonathan Pingle.
    Like many others on Wall Street, Pingle expects the CPI report, combined with last Friday’s surprisingly strong nonfarm payrolls reading and other recent data releases to lead Fed officials to tinker with their outlook for inflation, economic growth and interest rates.
    Optimists are hoping that the moves fall largely within the realm of expected outcomes and don’t do much to rattle the frayed nerves of market participants.
    “While both typically have proven to be market-moving events, we expect very little fireworks from both releases given our expectations for rather benign outcomes,” said Jack Janasiewicz, lead portfolio strategist at Natixis Investment Managers.
    In broad strokes, here are anticipated outcomes of both events.

    CPI inflation

    The measure of how much a broad basket of goods and services cost consumers in May is expected to show little month-over-month movement — just a 0.1% increase from April, though that still would equate to an aggregate annual rise of 3.4%.
    Excluding food and energy prices, the so-called core PCI is projected to show a 0.3% monthly gain and a 3.5% annual rate.
    None of those numbers are dramatically different from the April readings, and still show inflation running well above the Fed’s 2% target. Still, some economists say that a look under the hood at various important metrics such as insurance costs and core services excluding housing will show that inflation at least is trending in the right direction, albeit incrementally.
    “On the inflation front, expect more of the same – continued evidence that the broader disinflationary trend is still intact and that the stickier first quarter data was simply a pause in a downtrend,” Janasiewicz said.
    One important point about the CPI: while it gets a lot of focus from both the investing and general public, it is not the main metric the Fed uses. Central bankers prefer the Commerce Department’s measure of personal consumption expenditures prices, a broader measure that also accounts for changes in consumer behavior.
    The Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to release the CPI report at 8:30 a.m. ET on Wednesday.

    The Fed meeting

    While the BLS is disseminating the CPI report, the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee members will be finalizing their projections for inflation, gross domestic product and unemployment as well as indicating the expected rate path through 2026 and beyond.
    First and foremost, when it comes to interest rates, the Fed will do … nothing. Both market pricing and rhetoric from policymakers point to virtually no chance of a move either way on interest rates, with the central bank keeping its benchmark overnight borrowing rate in a range between 5.25%-5.50%.
    Instead, officials will take other action that markets will be watching closely.
    FOMC members will release quarterly updates to their Summary of Economic Projections, which could be influenced by the CPI report. While meeting participants usually submit their estimates early Wednesday, the 19 meeting participants generally are allowed a little extra time to account for incoming data.
    The informal consensus in market commentary is that the Fed will adjust the path of its pivotal “dot plot” upward. The impact of that would mean the grid likely will point to fewer than the three interest rate cuts indicated for 2024 in March, toward a path that most economists expect to show two reductions, though there is some worry the outlook could shrink to just one.
    Should the Fed signal one cut, that likely means the Fed wouldn’t act until November or December, UBS’ Pingle said.
    Goldman Sachs economists expect two rate cuts, with the first coming in September. Others differ, though, with Bank of America calling for one and Citigroup looking for a possible three, though it expects the dot plot to indicate two.
    “Our conviction remains limited because we continue to see cuts as optional, the inflation news we expect would make a decision to cut reasonable but not obvious, and FOMC participants have a range of views,” wrote Goldman economist David Mericle.
    Economists also expect the Fed to reduce its outlook for gross domestic product growth and raise the expected inflation level from March’s projections.
    Other significant Fed developments include the post-meeting statement as well as Chair Jerome Powell’s news conference afterward.
    “We do not expect any significant changes to the FOMC statement or Chair Powell’s message at the June meeting. The most notable theme of Powell’s last press conference in May was his pushback against possible rate hikes, but talk of hikes has died down in markets since then,” Mericle said.
    Indeed, only a few Fed officials in their public commentary have mentioned the possibility of raising rates further.
    However, the market has had to dramatically reprice its expectations from earlier in 2024 when traders expected six cuts this year.
    The recent economic data, likely to be echoed by Wednesday’s CPI report, point to an evolving economy where higher for longer on rates is being treated as a much greater possibility. The payrolls report Friday, for instance, showed wages growing at a 4.1% annual clip, well above what the Fed would like to see.
    “A still-growing U.S. economy is keeping wage growth stubbornly above the Fed’s unofficial target of 3.3 percent,” wrote Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research. “Unless economic growth cools, it is hard to see a pathway to anything more than a token Fed rate cut in 2024.”

    Don’t miss these exclusives from CNBC PRO More

  • 75 Shares169 Views

    in Economy

    World Bank Sees Rosier Growth Outlook

    But rising trade barriers pose a long-term threat to global output as protectionist policies spread, the bank said.The World Bank on Tuesday raised its outlook for the world economy this year but warned that the rise of new trade barriers and protectionist policies posed a long-term threat to global growth.In its latest Global Economic Prospects report, the World Bank projected global growth to hold steady at 2.6 percent this year, an upgrade from its January forecast of 2.4 percent, and predicted that output would edge higher to 2.7 percent in 2025. The forecasts showed the global economy stabilizing after being rocked in recent years by the pandemic and the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East.“Four years after the upheavals caused by the pandemic, conflicts, inflation and monetary tightening, it appears that global economic growth is steadying,” Indermit Gill, the World Bank’s chief economist, said in a statement accompanying the report.However, sluggish growth continues to haunt the world’s poorest economies, which are still grappling with inflation and the burdens of high debt. The bank noted that over the next three years, countries that account for more than 80 percent of the world’s population would experience slower growth than in the decade before the pandemic.The slightly brighter forecast was led by the resilience of the U.S. economy, which continues to defy expectations despite higher interest rates. Overall, advanced economies are growing at an annual rate of 1.5 percent, with output remaining sluggish in Europe and Japan. By contrast, emerging market and developing economies are growing at a rate of 4 percent, led by China and Indonesia.Although growth is expected to be a bit stronger than previously forecast, the World Bank said prices were easing more slowly than it projected six months ago. It foresees global inflation moderating to 3.5 percent in 2024 and 2.9 percent next year. That gradual decline is likely to lead central banks to delay interest rate cuts, dimming prospects for growth in developing economies.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

  • 150 Shares169 Views

    in Economy

    Baltimore key shipping channel fully reopens after Francis Scott Key Bridge collapse

    The main shipping channel into the Baltimore port was fully restored for commercial transit, after the March 26 collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge.
    The bridge toppled after the cargo ship Dali crashed into the infrastructure.
    The restoration follows a cleanup process that removed about 50,000 tons of bridge wreckage from the Patapsco River, allowing for the gradual reopening of the channel in the weeks since.

    The vehicle carrier Tosca passes through an open section of the Federal channel as crane barges continue work on clearing the debris from the Francis Scott Key Bridge more than two months after the catastrophic collapse. 
    Jerry Jackson | Baltimore Sun | Getty Images

    The main passageway into the Baltimore port was fully restored after the March 26 collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge, which left six people dead and obstructed maritime traffic into the harbor.
    The bridge toppled after the cargo ship Dali crashed into the infrastructure, choking a major shipping artery into the U.S.’ busiest auto port.

    The Port of Baltimore processed a record 1.1 million containers and $80.8 billion in foreign cargo value last year, according to state data. Six highway construction crew members who were carrying out overnight road work plunged to their deaths during the incident.
    On Monday evening, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers said that the Fort McHenry Federal Channel was reinstated to its original operational dimensions of 700 feet wide and 50 feet deep for commercial transit through the Port of Baltimore.
    “We’ve cleared the Fort McHenry Federal Channel for safe transit. USACE will maintain this critical waterway as we have for the last 107 years,” said Col. Estee Pinchasin, Baltimore District commander, in a statement.
    The restoration follows a cleanup process that started on March 30 and removed about 50,000 tons of bridge wreckage from the Patapsco River, allowing for the gradual reopening of the channel in the weeks since.

    Salvage crews continue to work on removing debris from the Francis Scott Key Bridge collapse after it was struck by the container ship Dali, now docked at Seagirt Marine Terminal in Baltimore. (Jerry Jackson/Baltimore Sun/Tribune News Service via Getty Images)
    Jerry Jackson | Baltimore Sun | Getty Images

    On May 20, authorities were able to refloat and remove the 300-meter-long (984-feet-long) Dali, which had been stranded for nearly two months under the wreckage.
    The vessel, chartered by Danish shipping giant Maersk, was headed to Baltimore from Sri Lanka when it “experienced a loss of electrical power and propulsion and struck the southern pier supporting the central truss spans of the Francis Scott Key Bridge,” according to a preliminary investigation report by the U.S. National Transportation Safety Board. More

  • 150 Shares199 Views

    in Economy

    U.S. Bans Imports From 3 Chinese Companies Over Ties to Forced Labor

    The government targeted companies involved in making seafood, aluminum and footwear, citing their links to labor programs affecting Chinese minorities.The Department of Homeland Security on Tuesday added three Chinese companies to a list of firms whose products can no longer be exported to the United States, as part of what it described as an escalating crackdown on companies that aid in forced labor programs in Xinjiang.The companies include a seafood processor, Shandong Meijia Group, that an investigation by the Outlaw Ocean Project identified as a business employing laborers brought to eastern China from Xinjiang — a far-western region of China where the government has detained and surveilled large numbers of minorities, including Uyghurs.Another firm, Xinjiang Shenhuo Coal and Electricity, is an aluminum processor whose metal can be found in cars, consumer electronics and other products, a U.S. official said. The third, Dongguan Oasis Shoes, brought Uyghurs and people from other persecuted groups to its footwear factory in Guangdong, the U.S. government said.With those additions, 68 companies now appear on the so-called entity list of firms that the U.S. government says participate in forced labor programs, nearly double the number at the beginning of the year.Robert Silvers, an under secretary at the Department of Homeland Security who is chair of a committee overseeing the list, said that the government was accelerating the pace of additions to the list, and that the public should expect that to continue.“We are going to hold companies to account if they engage in forced labor practices,” he said.Industries using cotton and tomatoes were among the first to reckon with links in their supply chains to fields in Xinjiang. But in more recent years, companies making solar panels, flooring, cars, electronics, seafood and other goods have discovered that they, too, use components that were made in Xinjiang.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

  • 150 Shares129 Views

    in Economy

    Fed Is in No Rush to Cut Rates as Economy Holds Up

    Federal Reserve officials are expected to leave interest rates unchanged at their meeting this week. They will also release a fresh set of economic projections.Federal Reserve officials are entering an uncertain summer. They are not sure how quickly inflation will cool, how much the economy is likely to slow or just how long interest rates need to stay high in order to make sure that quick price increases are fully vanquished.What they do know is that, for now, the job market and broader economy are holding up even in the face of higher borrowing costs. And given that, the Fed has a safe play: Do nothing.That is the message central bankers are likely to send at their two-day meeting this week, which concludes on Wednesday. Officials are expected to leave interest rates unchanged while avoiding any firm commitment about when they will cut them.Policymakers will release a fresh set of economic projections, and those could show that central bankers now expect to make just two interest rate cuts in 2024, down from three when they last released forecasts in March. Economists think that there is a small chance that officials could even predict just one cut this year. But whatever they forecast, officials are likely to avoid giving a clear signal of when rate reductions will begin.Investors do not expect a rate cut at the Fed’s next meeting in July, after which policymakers will not meet again until September. That gives officials several months of data and plenty of time to think about their next move. And because the economy is holding up, central bankers have the wiggle room to keep rates unchanged as they wait to see if inflation will decelerate without worrying that they are on the brink of plunging the economy into a sharp downturn.“They’ll continue to suggest that rate cuts are coming later this year,” said Gennadiy Goldberg, head of U.S. rates strategy at TD Securities. He said that he expected a reduction in September, and that he did not think the Fed would give any hint at timing this week.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

  • 138 Shares99 Views

    in Economy

    U.A.W. Reaches Accord on Pay and Safety at E.V. Battery Plant

    The agreement, if ratified, will cover 1,600 workers making batteries for General Motors in Ohio. The union said it would be a model for efforts elsewhere.The United Automobile Workers union on Monday announced a tentative contract agreement at an Ohio factory making batteries for electric vehicles, a step that it called a milestone in enhancing pay and safety in the E.V. supply chain.The accord covers 1,600 workers at a Lordstown plant operated by Ultium Cells, a joint venture between General Motors and a South Korean partner, LG Energy Solution. It produces batteries for G.M. electric vehicles.The workers had not been unionized when the plant opened in 2022, but they were brought into the U.A.W. under the terms of the national contract the union negotiated with G.M. last fall. This new contract, subject to ratification by the plant’s workers, defines wages and working conditions specific to that location.Shawn Fain, the U.A.W. president, said in a letter to union members that the accord was “a game changer for the electric vehicle battery industry.”G.M. and Ultium issued statements saying they were pleased with the agreement.The union said it planned to use the Ultium Cells contract as a template as it negotiated local agreements at other battery plants that G.M. and its Detroit rivals are building. G.M. started production this year at a battery plant in Spring Hill, Tenn., and has another under construction in Lansing, Mich.Ford Motor plans two battery plants in Kentucky, one in Tennessee and one in Michigan. Stellantis, the maker of Chrysler, Jeep, Dodge, and Ram vehicles, plans two battery plants in Indiana. Aside from one Ford location, those plants involve joint ventures that were brought under the U.A.W. umbrella under the national contracts the union signed with Ford and Stellantis last fall.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

  • 150 Shares199 Views

    in Economy

    U.S. Adds 272,000 Jobs in May, an Unexpectedly Strong Pace of Hiring

    Hiring was unexpectedly robust in May, with a gain of 272,000 jobs, but it wasn’t all good news: The unemployment rate ticked up, to 4 percent.The U.S. economy keeps throwing curveballs, and the May employment report is the latest example.Employers added 272,000 jobs last month, the Labor Department reported on Friday, well above what economists had expected as hiring had gradually slowed. That’s an increase from the 232,000-job average over the previous 12 months, scrambling the picture of an economy that’s relaxing into a more sustainable pace.Most concerning for the Federal Reserve, which meets next week and again in July, wages rose 4.1 percent from a year ago — a sign that inflation might not yet be vanquished.“For those who may have thought they would see a July rate cut, that door has largely been shut,” said Beth Ann Bovino, chief U.S. economist for U.S. Bank. Although wage gains are good for workers, she noted, persistent price increases undermine their spending power.Stocks fell shortly after the report was published, then recovered most of their losses by the end of the day. Government bond yields, which track expectations for Fed rate moves, rose sharply and remained elevated through the trading day.Wage growth ticked up in MayYear-over-year percentage change in earnings vs. inflation More

  • 163 Shares169 Views

    in Economy

    Market backs off on hopes for interest rate cuts following strong jobs report

    Beyond signaling a still-vibrant labor market, Friday’s jobs report at the very least adds to the narrative that the Fed doesn’t have to rush to lower interest rates.
    Following the jobs numbers, futures traders cut bets on rate cuts. Pricing in fed funds futures pointed to almost no chance of a reduction at either the FOMC’s meeting next week or on July 30-31.

    Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange during afternoon trading on June 03, 2024 in New York City. 
    Michael M. Santiago | Getty Images

    May’s surprising pace of job growth and wage rise added to the conviction that the Federal Reserve will stay on hold through this summer and possibly beyond.
    The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday that nonfarm payrolls increased by 272,000 for the month, considerably higher than the Wall Street consensus of 190,000 and well above April’s comparatively muted gain of 165,000. In addition, average hourly earnings rose 4.1% over the past 12 months, more than expected.

    Beyond signaling a still-vibrant labor market, the data at the very least adds to the narrative that the Fed doesn’t have to rush to lower interest rates.
    As inflation runs above the central bank’s 2% target, there’s scant evidence that higher rates are endangering broad metrics of economic growth.
    “I’ve been a little flummoxed at the parlor game of when will the Fed start cutting,” said Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab. “I’ve been more in the camp that neither of the components of the Fed’s dual mandate are pointing to the need to start cutting, and higher-for-longer means nothing could happen this year.”
    The Fed’s “dual mandate” entails maintaining both full employment and stable prices.
    Even with the unemployment rate rising to 4% in May, the labor market appears vibrant.

    However, on the other side of the mandate, inflation is still running well above the Fed’s target. Most gauges have prices rising annually at about a 3% rate, down significantly from the peaks of mid-2022 but still running hot.

    Lowering expectations

    Following the jobs numbers, futures traders cut bets on rate cuts.
    Pricing in fed funds futures pointed to almost no chance of a reduction at either the Federal Open Market Committee’s meeting next week or on July 30-31. From there, pricing indicates about a 50-50 chance of a September move, and only about a 46% probability that the Fed will follow up with a second cut before the end of the year, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch measure Friday afternoon.
    All of those probabilities were down sharply from Thursday levels.
    Investors, though, shouldn’t get too pessimistic, according to Rick Rieder, chief investment officer of global fixed income for money management giant BlackRock. He pointed to softness in demand for workers as shown by a report earlier this week indicating that job openings are continuing to decelerate.
    Moreover, the household survey, which is used to calculate the unemployment rate, showed a decrease in employment of 408,000 and a continuing trend of part-time employment far outpacing full-time positions.
    “And thus, the Federal Reserve’s mandate of price stability and full employment comes very much into balance,” Rieder wrote in a post-report analysis. “With these conditions, the Fed can lower the Fed Funds rate from very restrictive territory to merely restrictive positioning.”
    “We believe the Committee can still start cutting the policy rate by 25 basis points at its September meeting, with a desire to get one more cut done this year, but inflation readings from here need to be supportive of this,” he added.
    Similarly, Citigroup, long above consensus on Wall Street as the firm continued to expect aggressive rate cuts, said it now sees the Fed not moving until September but then continuing to cut rates from that point.
    “The jobs report does not change our view that hiring demand, and the broader economy, is slowing and that this will ultimately provoke the Fed to react with a series of cuts beginning in the next few months,” Citigroup economist Andrew Hollenhorst wrote.

    Don’t miss these exclusives from CNBC PRO More