Evelyn Reynolds

The ECB is grappling with global economic uncertainty, despite inflation in the euro zone hovering around the central bank’s 2% target in recent months.
Markets were pricing in an around 99% chance of the ECB holding interest rates steady.
Based on economic expectations, the central bank “is in no hurry to reduce rates further,” said Thomas Pugh, chief economist at RSM UK and RSM Ireland.

The European Central Bank held interest rates steady on Thursday as economic uncertainty persists in the wake of U.S. Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff agenda.
Ahead of the decision, markets had been pricing in an around 99% chance of the ECB’s key deposit facility rate being left at 2% for the second consecutive time. The central bank last cut rates in June, bringing rates further down from last year’s record high of 4%.

“Inflation is currently at around the 2% medium-term target and the Governing Council’s assessment of the inflation outlook is broadly unchanged,” the ECB said in a statement.
The central bank added that it would follow a meeting-by-meeting, data-dependent approach and was not pre-committing to a specific path for interest rates. The ECB offered little indication on the future direction for rates.

Lingering economic uncertainty

The ECB is grappling with global economic uncertainty, despite inflation in the euro zone hovering around the central bank’s 2% target in recent months, and the EU striking a trade agreement with the U.S.
The transatlantic partners agreed to 15% blanket tariffs on EU exports to the U.S. in July, with further details about the framework emerging last month. It addressed some questions for key European sectors like pharmaceuticals.

However, questions remain as some issues — such as provisions for the wine and spirits sector — were left open. Concerns over further tariffs have also grown following Trump’s threat of retaliations against the EU after it hit Alphabet’s Google with a $3.45 billion antitrust fine.

Fears about the impact tariffs could have on economic growth remain. Growth in the euro zone has remained sluggish even as rates have come down, with the latest figures showing just 0.1% growth in the second quarter after a 0.6% expansion in the previous period.

Further cuts ahead?

The ECB has left the door open for further rate reductions, according to economists and analysts following the interest rate decision.
Based on economic expectations, the central bank “is in no hurry to reduce rates further,” said Thomas Pugh, chief economist at leading audit, tax and consulting firm RSM UK and RSM Ireland.
But, he noted, “the 15% tariff on EU exports to the US along with heightened uncertainty will weigh on demand, potentially leaving the door open to a further rate cut at the end of the year.”
“A combination of a hit to investment and exports, a stronger euro along with cheaper imports from China could dampen growth and inflation by enough to warrant another rate cut later this year,” Pugh explained in a note.

Updated expectations

With the interest rate decision itself being widely anticipated, attention on Thursday focused on ECB President Christine Lagarde’s press conference and the latest projections for inflation and economic growth. The central bank last updated its economic forecasts in June.
“The new ECB staff projections present a picture of inflation similar to that projected in June. They see headline inflation averaging 2.1% in 2025, 1.7% in 2026 and 1.9% in 2027,” the central bank said.
In June, headline inflation was forecast to average 2% this year, 1.6% next year and 2% in 2027.

So called core inflation, which strips out food and energy costs, is expected to average 2.4% this year, unchanged from the previous estimate.
Looking at economic growth, the ECB said that “the economy is projected to grow by 1.2% in 2025, revised up from the 0.9% expected in June.”
The forecast for 2026 was trimmed slightly to 1% growth. More

Trump reportedly asked the EU to impose tariffs on China and India to punish them for buying Russian oil.
The EU is likely to be highly wary of agreeing to do so.
A European Commission spokesperson told CNBC Wednesday that it does not “disclose details of such meetings due to the need for confidentiality.”

TU.S. President Donald Trump and President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen shake hands as they announce a US-EU trade deal after a meeting at Trump Turnberry golf club on July 27, 2025 in Turnberry, Scotland.
Andrew Harnik | Getty Images News | Getty Images

Reports that U.S. President Donald Trump asked the European Union to slap tariffs of up to 100% on China and India for their Russian oil purchases has raised eyebrows on both sides of the Atlantic, with Europe seen as unlikely to acquiesce to the White House’s request.
Trump made the proposal — first reported by the Financial Times and confirmed to CNBC by two sources familiar with the matter — when he was called into a meeting with senior U.S. and EU officials in Washington on Tuesday. The U.S. was also prepared to “mirror” any tariffs imposed by Europe on the two countries, the FT’s report added. The White House has yet to respond to CNBC’s request for comments.

Asked to comment on Trump’s bid, a European Commission spokesperson told CNBC Wednesday it could not disclose meeting details due to confidentiality, noting, “The EU has engaged with all relevant global partners, including India and China, in the context of its sanctions enforcement efforts. This engagement will continue.”
The commission pointed to its 19th measures package its preparing against Moscow, saying it had “added new sanctions tools which allow us to target circumvention through third countries” and that the U.S. was a “crucially important partner” in Brussels’ efforts to pile pressure on Russia’s war economy.

Timing

Asking the EU to impose tariffs on key Russian energy clients India and China was seen as another way to punish their trade with Moscow and put pressure on Russia to end the war in Ukraine.
Yet European officials appear wary of alienating China and India, and the timing of Trump’s request has raised eyebrows because it Washington is negotiating a trade deal with New Delhi.

FILE PHOTO: U.S. President Donald Trump meets with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., February 13, 2025.
Kevin Lamarque | Reuters

The U.S. has already imposed a 50% tariff on India, which includes a 25% punitive duty it for its Russian oil purchases. India says the tariffs are “unfair, unjustified and unreasonable,” while calling out the U.S. and the EU’s trade with Russia.

Ian Bremmer, founder of Eurasia Group, told CNBC Wednesday that the White House’s latest demand on the EU was “hard to square with Trump’s efforts to get to a trade deal with India and China, which he prioritizes over getting a ceasefire in Ukraine (let alone things like Transatlantic collective security and deterrence),” Bremmer said in emailed comments to CNBC.
“It looks more like an attempt to shift responsibility for a stronger response to Europe, creating political cover for American inaction on the sanctions front while avoiding a direct hit to U.S.-China relations.”

‘Europe should say no’

The EU is unlikely to acquiesce, analysts say. Not only would the bloc be wary of adopting Trump’s contentious tariffs strategy and burning its own bridges with India and China — despite an economic rivalry with the Asian superpowers — but the EU has its own complicated trading relationship with Russia.
“Everyone knows if the Europeans haven’t been able to wean themselves off Russian energy themselves more than 3.5 years into the war, they sure as hell aren’t going to cut themselves off from their top goods import supplier,” Eurasia Group’s Bremmer stated.

U.S. President Donald Trump shakes hands with Russian President Vladimir Putin before a joint news conference following their meeting at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson in Anchorage, Alaska, U.S., August 15, 2025.
Gavriil Grigorov | Via Reuters

Other analysts noted that Europe, unlike Trump, has an aversion to imposing tariffs as part of a trade playbook, arguing that the bloc shouldn’t be drawn into his trade wars.
“No one in Europe believes tariffs are an effective trade policy tool … Europe would prefer diplomacy to address issues, rather than outright trade war,” Bill Blain, market strategist and founder of London-based Wind Shift Capital, said in his Morning Porridge newsletter on Wednesday.
“Europe’s response should be ‘no.’ Trump kicked the hornets nest – let him deal with the consequences. But let’s see what happens,” Blain concluded.

Russia connection

The EU has a complicated trading relationship with Russia. This is likely to prevent the bloc from punishing other nations for doing business with Moscow, when the EU does so too — albeit at a far lower level than before the Ukraine war began in 2022.
The EU’s bilateral trade with its neighbor stood at 67.5 billion euros ($78.1 billion) in 2024, according to European Commission data, with the EU’s imports were worth 35.9 billion euros and dominated by fuel and mining products. EU exports to Russia totaled 31.5 billion euros in 2024.
The EU has struggled to wean itself off Russian gas and LNG (liquefied natural gas) imports completely. Russia’s share of EU imports of pipeline gas dropped from over 40% in 2021 to about 11.6% in 2024, while Moscow accounted for less than 19% of total EU pipeline gas and LNG imports in 2024, the commission’s data notes.
The U.S. has encouraged its European allies to switch to U.S. LNG.
Trump said the EU had pledged, as part of its framework trade deal with the U.S. — which saw 15% tariffs imposed on the bloc’s exports to the States — to purchase U.S. LNG, oil and nuclear energy products with an expected offtake valued at $750 billion over the next three years.
U.S. Secretary of Interior Doug Burgum told CNBC Wednesday that the Trump administration is looking to drive up the U.S.’ market share of the energy sector in Europe.

“[Exporting] LNG would be one of the easiest things, [you can] put it on a ship, send it over here. Displace Russian gas, drive their market share to zero in Europe and drive U.S. market share up. That’s great for America, great for our allies, and we stop funding Russia’s side of the war,” he told CNBC at Gastech 2025. More

Customers look over clothing items displayed on April 18, 2025 at a Costco branch in Niantic, Connecticut.
Robert Nickelsberg | Getty Images

The producer price index, a gauge of costs at the wholesale level in the U.S. economy, posted an unexpected 0.1% decline in August. Here’s what to know:

For the third time this year, the PPI showed outright deflation in what is generally considered a measure of pipeline price pressures. Wall Street economists had been looking for a 0.3% increase. The core PPI, which strips out food and energy, also fell 0.1% though core minus trade services actually rose 0.3%
The tame reading will only feed market expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut next week, and President Donald Trump was quickly on the case. “Just out: No Inflation!!! ‘Too Late’ must lower the RATE, BIG, right now. Powell is a total disaster, who doesn’t have a clue!!!” he posted on Truth Social in his latest shot at Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
Despite the tame inflation and near certainty of a rate cut, market reaction was muted. Stocks rose slightly and Treasury yields moved only modestly lower. The PPI is generally not considered a high-profile or well-understood metric, and traders are likely waiting for the consumer price index print Thursday.
Fed officials look not only at headline numbers but also the underlying drivers. The PPI report provided good news on inflation fundamentals. The services sector, which drives some 80% of GDP, saw outright deflation, falling 0.2%. Even goods prices, which are much more heavily impacted by tariffs, rose just 0.1%.
The CPI reading, due Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET, will get more attention. As with the PPI, the consensus outlook is for a 0.3% increase. About four-fifths of the CPI and PPI numbers feed into the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the personal consumption expenditures price index. The CPI is the final big data point before the Fed’s rate decision a week from now.

What they’re saying:

“Tomorrow’s CPI will carry more weight, but today’s PPI print essentially rolled out the red carpet for a Fed rate cut next week. After last week’s jobs report, though, the market was already expecting the Fed to begin an easing cycle, so it remains to be seen how much of a near-term impact this will have on sentiment” — Chris Larkin, managing director, trading and investing, E-Trade from Morgan Stanley.

“The worst-case scenario on inflation isn’t playing out. The doves will be happy to see the year-over-year number back below 3 percent. Combined with the weak jobs data recently, this keeps us on track for rate cuts. However the speed and intensity might depend more on the big consumer index tomorrow morning.” — David Russell, global head of market strategy at TradeStation.
“Inflationary pressure in PPI appears to be muted overall. … We see nothing in this report (or its implications for core PCE) that would dissuade Fed officials from cutting 25bp in September and proceeding to cut 25bp at each upcoming policy meeting.” — Citigroup economist Andrew Hollenhorst.

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The producer price index fell 0.1% in August, after a downwardly revised 0.7% increase in July and well off the Dow Jones estimate for a 0.3% rise.
The release provides breathing room for the Federal Reserve to approve an interest rate cut at its meeting next week.
Services prices, a key metric for the Fed when evaluating the stance of monetary policy, posted a 0.2% drop.

People shop for dairy products at a supermarket in Monterey Park, California on September 9, 2025.
Frederic J. Brown | Afp | Getty Images

Wholesale prices surprisingly fell slightly in August, providing breathing room for the Federal Reserve to approve an interest rate cut at its meeting this month, according to a Bureau of Labor Statistics report Wednesday.
The producer price index, which measures input costs across a broad array of goods and services, dropped 0.1% for the month, after a downwardly revised 0.7% increase in July and well off the Dow Jones estimate for a 0.3% rise. On a 12-month basis, the headline PPI saw a 2.6% gain.

The core PPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, also was off 0.1% after being expected to climb 0.3% as well. Excluding food, energy and trade, the PPI posted a 0.3% gain and was up 2.8% from a year ago.

Stock market futures gained after the release while Treasury yields were slightly negative.
The release comes a week ahead of when the central bank’s Federal Open Market Committee releases its decision on its key overnight borrowing rate.
Futures market pricing implies a 100% probability that the committee will approve its first rate cut since December 2024, though the PPI release and a consumer price reading Thursday are being watched closely for indications of whether policymakers will follow through. Odds for a larger half percentage point reduction increased slightly after the PPI release to about 10%, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch gauge.
Services prices, a key metric for the Fed when evaluating the stance of monetary policy, posted a 0.2% drop, helping drive wholesale inflation lower. A 1.7% slide in prices for trade services was the primary impetus, with margins for machinery and vehicle wholesaling tumbling 3.9%.

Goods prices did increase, but just 0.1% as core prices rose 0.3%. While final demand food costs were up 0.1%, energy was off 0.4%.

“Net, net, the inflation shock that was not is rocketing markets higher as inflation barely has a heartbeat at the producer level which shows the tariff effect is not boosting across-the-board price pressures yet,” said Chris Rupkey, chief economist at Fwdbonds. “There is almost nothing to stop an interest rate cut from coming now.”
Though inflation remains well above the Fed’s 2% target, officials have expressed confidence that easing housing and wage pressures will push prices lower, if only gradually.
The Fed has resisted rate cuts this year as officials monitor the impact from President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariffs against U.S. imports. Tariffs historically have not been a lasting cause of inflation, but the broad-based nature of Trump’s moves have raised concern that this episode could be different.
Tobacco products, which are impacted by tariffs, jumped 2.3% in August. Portfolio management costs, a significant factor in the July increase, rose 2% after climbing 5.8% the prior month.
For his part, Trump has badgered the Fed to reduce rates, insisting that tariffs will not be inflationary and the economy needs lower rates both to spur growth and to cap financing costs for the swelling national debt.
Concerns have been rising at the Fed over the employment picture while inflation fears have abated. A BLS report Tuesday indicating that the economy created nearly 1 million fewer jobs than initially reported in the year preceding March 2025 raised worries that the labor market is in trouble even as Fed officials consistently have characterized the picture as “solid.”
The Fed meeting next week will feature both a rate decision and an update on where officials see the economy and interest rates headed in the future.

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Key inflation reports this week are expected to show that prices accelerated again in August, though not in a way that would keep the Federal Reserve from reducing its benchmark interest rate.
Economists expect the reports to show increases of 0.3% across the board, including the headline all-items indexes as well as the critical core readings that exclude volatile food and energy prices.
If those trends are apparent in the reports, central bank policymakers are expected to look through the increase and turn their attention more to the increasingly weak jobs market.

Beef is prepared for a customer in a grocery store in Miami, Florida, on July 22, 2025.
Joe Raedle | Getty Images

Key inflation reports this week are expected to show that prices accelerated again in August, though not in a way that would keep the Federal Reserve from reducing its benchmark interest rate at a meeting next week.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to release the producer price index for August on Wednesday, followed by the more closely watched consumer price index the next day.

Economists expect the reports to show monthly increases of 0.3% across the board, including the headline all-items indexes as well as the critical core readings that exclude volatile food and energy prices, according to Dow Jones.
If that is the case, it would push the annual headline CPI rate to 2.9%, the highest level since January, and further from the Fed’s 2% target and up 0.2 percentage points from July. On its face, that would seem to be a deterrent for the Fed to ease monetary policy when it meets next week.
However, two factors will come into play. First, the core reading is predicted to be unchanged at 3.1%. Second, the increase in inflation is largely expected to come from tariff-sensitive goods rather than services prices that affect a much larger part of the $30 trillion U.S. economy.
If those trends are apparent in the report, central bank policymakers are expected to look through the increase and turn their attention more to the increasingly weak jobs market that could use a boost from lower rates. Fed officials for now are mostly viewing tariffs as one-off price increases not likely to cause longer-lasting inflation.

“In aggregate, it’s still hotter than the Fed would like to see,” said James Knightley, chief international economist at ING. “They’ll be looking at the broader picture. The U.S. is predominately a service sector economy.”

President Donald Trump’s tariffs are likely to show up further in the inflation picture in the form of price increases for items such as autos, furniture and clothing, among other items.
However, “aside from tariff effects, we expect underlying trend inflation to fall further, reflecting shrinking contributions from the housing rental and labor markets,” Goldman Sachs economists said in a note.
That’s a double-edged sword for the economy, though, as consumers feel the pinch from falling housing values and wages that aren’t rising as quickly, providing another incentive for interest rate cuts.
“When you get that combination, concerns about prices, concerns about incomes, concerns about wealth, those three things coming together are pretty toxic for the growth story,” Knightley said. “That’s starting to make the Fed more wary about where we’re heading.”
Producer prices, which will report ahead of CPI, are considered an indicator of pipeline pressures. Despite rising 0.9% in July, the increase is expected to be tempered in August.

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With job growth tanking and the economy wobbling, pressure is on for the Federal Reserve to start lowering interest rates.
Market expectations have shifted notably on rates as trouble signs have built around employment.

A construction worker is shown on the job site at a multi-unit residential housing project in Encinitas, California, U.S., July 28, 2025.
Mike Blake | Reuters

With job growth tanking and the economy wobbling, pressure is on for the Federal Reserve to start lowering interest rates, with markets now expecting a cut at each of the three remaining meetings this year.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Tuesday that the economy added 911,000 fewer jobs than previously reported for the year preceding March 2025. Downward revisions since the cutoff date in that report suggest that the reduction in payroll growth has been actually around 1.2 million for the past 16 months.

That’s a number sure to get the Federal Open Market Committee’s attention when it meets next week and could add fire to President Donald Trump’s repeated assertions that the central bank has been “too late” in making policy adjustments.
“Had Fed officials had that data available in real time, policy rates would be lower today,” wrote Citigroup economist Andrew Hollenhorst, referencing the BLS “benchmark” payrolls revisions.
Hollenhorst said the data actually “could justify” a jumbo half percentage point cut when the FOMC releases its decision Sept. 17. However, he expects Chair Jerome Powell “will have an easier time building consensus around a [quarter-point] rate cut next week, with signals that rate cuts will continue at upcoming meetings, including potentially in October.”

Market expectations have shifted notably as trouble signs have built around employment.
Traders now are not only pricing in a 100% chance that the Fed lowers by a quarter point next week, they also are allowing for a slight chance of a half-point reduction. They now firmly see cuts at each of the three remaining meetings, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool. The gauge uses prices on 30-day fed funds futures contracts to determine market-implied odds for rate moves. Just a week ago, markets were assigning only a modest chance for three cuts this year.

Watching the numbers

While the Fed is not bound by the market, it closely monitors rate expectations as part of its data dashboard.
“The U.S. economy barely has any jobs right now and it’s been that way for a long time,” said Heather Long, now the chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union and prior to that a Fed reporter for the Washington Post. “The Federal Reserve needs to cut interest rates in September, October and December, and the White House needs to quickly finalize a trade deal with China. Businesses aren’t going to invest and hire more people again until there is more certainty.”
To be sure, Fed officials may feel they can be deliberate in their actions as the economic data are still muddy and subject to the changing winds from Trump’s tariffs.
Moreover, there’s a chance that current data overstate the labor market’s troubles.
For instance, Goldman Sachs disputed the benchmark payroll revisions, saying the total reduction based on the firm’s proprietary model and high-frequency data is more like 550,000, or a bit lower than the year before. The firm further said that the BLS revisions “provide limited information about the current state of the labor market” thought it acknowledged that conditions have “softened materially.”
However, the report follows news that nonfarm payrolls rose just 22,000 in August. Moreover, a New York Fed survey found a record low in sentiment among workers who believe they could find another job if they lost their current position. Other surveys also have showed heightened worries.
From the White House, the data reignited calls for rate cuts.
“Much like the BLS has failed the American people, so has Jerome ‘Too Late’ Powell — who has officially run out of excuses and must cut the rates now,” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said in a statement.

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Annual revisions to nonfarm payrolls data for the year prior to March 2025 showed a drop of 911,000 from the initial estimate.
The numbers, which are adjusted from data in the quarterly census and reflect updated information on business openings and closings, add to evidence that the employment picture is weakening.

The labor market created far fewer jobs than previously thought, according to a Labor Department report Tuesday that added to concerns both about the health of the economy and the state of data collection.
Annual revisions to nonfarm payrolls data for the year prior to March 2025 showed a drop of 911,000 from the initial estimates, according to a preliminary report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The total revision was on the high end of Wall Street expectations, which ranged from a low around 600,000 to as many as a million.

The revisions were more than 50% higher than last year’s adjustment and the largest on record going back to 2002. On a monthly basis, they suggest average job growth of 76,000 less than initially reported.
The numbers, which are adjusted from data in the quarterly census and reflect updated information on business openings and closings, add to evidence that the employment picture in the U.S. is weakening.
Most of the time span for the report came before President Donald Trump took office, indicating the jobs picture was deteriorating before he began levying tariffs against U.S. trading partners.
“The BLS’ preliminary benchmark revisions to nonfarm payrolls show a much weaker labor market over most of 2024 and early 2025 than previously estimated,” said Oren Klachkin, market economist at Nationwide Financial. “Importantly, the slower job creation implies income growth was also on a softer footing even prior to the recent rise in policy uncertainty and economic slowdown we’ve seen since the spring. This should give the Fed more impetus to restart its cutting cycle.”
Tuesday’s revisions are not by themselves a reflection of current conditions as they go back as much as a year and a half. However, recent months’ data also has been pointing to a soft labor market. The summer months of June, July and August saw average payroll growth of just 29,000 per month, below the break-even level for keeping the unemployment rate steady.

The largest markdowns came in leisure and hospitality (-176,000), professional and business services (-158,000) and retail trade (-126,200). Most sectors saw downward revisions, though transportation and warehousing and utilities had small gains. Almost all the revisions were confined to the private sector; government jobs were adjusted down by 31,000.
Stocks reacted little to the release, though Treasury yields erased losses and turned higher.
In addition to the economic concerns, the revisions also bring added heat to the BLS, which has been under fire from the White House for its data collection methods and results.
Following a weak jobs report for July that featured substantial downward revisions, President Donald Trump fired then-BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer and nominated Heritage Foundation economist E.J. Antoni as her successor. However, the August payrolls count was actually lower than July’s and also featured revisions that took down the June total to a loss of 13,000 jobs, the first negative total since December 2020.
“Today, the BLS released the largest downward revision on record proving that President Trump was right: Biden’s economy was a disaster and the BLS is broken,” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said in a statement. “This is exactly why we need new leadership to restore trust and confidence in the BLS’s data on behalf of the financial markets, businesses, policymakers, and families that rely on this data to make major decisions.”
The benchmark revisions differ from the monthly adjustments in that they are far more encompassing.
Where the monthly moves come from additional survey data that comes in to the BLS, the annual revisions stem from more comprehensive information from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages as well as tax data that essentially offers a full do-over on the data, rather than the incremental course corrections of the monthly reports.
Moreover, the numbers announced Tuesday will face further revisions when the BLS releases the final benchmark figure in February 2026.
For the previous benchmark revision, which encompassed the 12 months prior to March 2024, the initial total was 818,000 fewer jobs, later adjusted in February 2025 to 598,000, still the largest downward move since 2009.
As a share of the 171 million member labor force, the revisions amount to 0.6%. However, the political and economic ramifications could be considerable.
Additional signs of labor market weakness will add to the case that Trump has been pressing for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.
The White House statement added that Fed Chair Jerome Powell “has officially run out of excuses and must cut the rates now.”

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President Donald Trump appeared at the U.S. Open alongside Rolex CEO Jean-Frederic Dufour.
This comes weeks after Trump placed a 39% tariff on the watchmaker’s home country of Switzerland.

(L-R) U.S. President Donald Trump and Rolex CEO Jean-Frederic Dufour arrive in the Rolex suite prior to the Men’s Singles Final match between Jannik Sinner of Italy and Carlos Alcaraz of Spain on Day Fifteen of the 2025 US Open at USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center on September 07, 2025 in New York City.
Matthew Stockman | Getty Images

President Donald Trump appeared at the U.S. Open this weekend alongside Rolex CEO Jean-Frederic Dufour, weeks after tariffing the watchmaker’s home country of Switzerland.
Trump watched the men’s singles final in New York on Sunday in a midcourt box operated by Rolex, which also sponsors the tournament. The president was joined by family members and high-profile White House officials including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt, according to NBC News.

Trump was invited by Rolex, according to a report from The Associated Press on Saturday citing a person with knowledge of the details. Rolex and the White House did not respond to CNBC’s request for comment.
Rolex’s alleged invitation came within weeks of Trump placing a 39% tariff rate on Switzerland. That’s higher than other countries in the region face following deals between the U.S. and the European Union and United Kingdom.

A view of U.S. President Donald Trump (C) on a Rolex display during the Men’s Singles Final match between Jannik Sinner of Italy and Carlos Alcaraz of Spain on Day Fifteen of the 2025 US Open at USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center on September 07, 2025 in New York City.
Al Bello | Getty Images Sport | Getty Images

Bernstein analyst Luca Solca wrote to clients last month that “the last minute deal that many had hoped for didn’t materialize.”
Solca said Swiss watchmakers will likely need to hike prices as a result of the levies. The analyst said the 39% levy is almost two-times higher than previously expected for the country.
But Solca also said the group saw a jump in shipments ahead of tariff implementation, which can provide a “buffer” on price tags for around six months.

Trump’s attendance in the Rolex box marks his latest interaction with major corporations, which have aimed to curry favor following his return to office this year. The president hosted several CEOs of large technology companies at the White House last week.
Sunday’s visit was Trump’s first time at the sporting event since 2015, according to the Associated Press.
Rolex is a private company founded in 1905 and headquartered in Geneva. Tickets for the U.S. Open final cost at a minimum upwards of $800 with close seats going for thousands of dollars. More