Evelyn Reynolds

The International Monetary Fund projects global headline inflation will fall to 3.5% year-over-year by the end of 2025 from 5.8% in 2024
Rising market volatility was among the risks the agency highlighted to global growth
A spike in commodity prices would especially hurt lower-income nations, the IMF added

A man walks past signage for the the 2024 IMF/World Bank Annual Meetings outside of the headquarters of the International Monetary Fund in Washington, DC on October 18, 2024. 
Daniel Slim | AFP | Getty Images

Much of the world has managed to successfully lower inflation and engineer an economic soft landing, avoiding recession, but faces rising geopolitical risks and weaker long-term growth prospects, according to the International Monetary Fund. 
Global headline inflation will fall to 3.5% on an annual basis by the end of 2025, from an average 5.8% in 2024, the agency said in its World Economic Outlook released on Tuesday. Inflation peaked at a year-over-year rate of 9.4% in the third quarter of 2022. The yearend 2025 rate is slightly below the average annual rise in prices in the two decades before the Covid-19 pandemic. 

“The global battle against inflation is almost won,” the IMF report trumpeted, even as it called for “a policy triple pivot” to address interest rates, government spending and reforms and investment to boost productivity.
“Despite the good news on inflation, downside risks are increasing and now dominate the outlook,” said IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas. Now that inflation is headed in the right direction, global policymarkers face a new challenge stemming from the rate of growth in the world economy, the IMF warned.
The fund kept its global growth estimate at 3.2% for 2024 and 2025 — which it called “stable yet underwhelming.” The United States is now forecast to see faster growth, and strong expansions are also likely in emerging Asian economies as a result of robust artificial intelligence-related investments. But the IMF lowered its outlook for other advanced economies — notably the largest European nations — as well as several emerging markets, blaming intensifying global conflicts and ensuing risk to commodity prices. 
Vigilance needed in final stretch of disinflation 
The Washington-based IMF, with 190 member countries, said in its overview that responsive monetary policy was key to bringing down inflation while labor market conditions normalized and supply shocks unwound, all of which helped avoid a global recession. 
Central banks will need to remain vigilant in fully bringing down inflation, the report warned. It added that services inflation still remains nearly double pre-pandemic levels as wages in certain countries continue catching up to an increase in the cost of living, leading several emerging market economies such as Brazil and Mexico to see an uptick in inflationary pressures. 

“While inflation expectations have remained well anchored this time around, it may be harder next time, as workers and firms will be more vigilant in protecting their standards of living and profits going forward,” the report stated.
Lower-income countries, where food and energy costs account for a greater share of household expenses, are also more sensitive to spikes in commodity prices that could lead to higher inflation. Poorer countries are already under greater stress from sovereign debt repayments, which could further limit funding for public programs. 
Market volatility among key downside risks 
Heightened financial volatility is another threat to global growth, the IMF report said. Sudden market sell-offs, such as occurred in early August, were cited by the IMF as a key risk that clouds the economic outlook. Although markets have steadied since the brief August’s slump, fueled by an unwinding of the yen carry trade and weaker-than-expected U.S. labor market data, worries remain, according to the fund. 
“The return of financial market volatility over the summer has stirred old fears about hidden vulnerabilities. This has heightened anxiety over the appropriate monetary policy stance,” the report said. 
Further challenges to global financial markets could come in the final stretch of the fight against inflation. Market turbulence and contagion is a key risk if underlying inflation remains stubborn — a key risk to low-income countries that are already under stress from high sovereign debt and currency market volatility. 
Other downside risks include geopolitical concerns, notably the Middle East conflict and potential spikes in commodity prices. A potentially deeper Chinese property market contraction, interest rates remaining too high for too long and rising protectionism in global trade are other threats to prosperity, the IMF said.  
The outlook is murkier longer term. The IMF forecasts global growth will rise 3.1% annually at the end of the 2020s, the lowest level in decades. While China’s weaker outlook has weighed on medium-term projections, but so does a deteriorating outlook in Latin America and Europe. Structural headwinds such as low productivity and aging populations are also limiting growth prospects. 
“Projected slowdowns in the largest emerging market and developing economies imply a longer path to close the income gaps between poor and rich countries. Having growth stuck in low gear could also further exacerbate income inequality within economies,” the IMF warned. More

The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday raised its 2024 growth outlook for the United Kingdom, saying falls in both inflation and interest rates would boost domestic demand.
The IMF’s brighter outlook comes as the country braces for the first budget under the center-left Labour Party for 14 years.
The IMF also on Tuesday trimmed its growth outlook for the euro zone in 2024 to 0.8% from 0.9%, forecasting stagnation in the bloc’s biggest economy Germany.

General view of the City of London skyline, the capital’s financial district, in October.
Sopa Images | Lightrocket | Getty Images

LONDON — The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday raised its 2024 growth outlook for the United Kingdom, saying declines in interest rates and inflation would boost domestic demand.
The IMF now sees 1.1% growth for the U.K. economy this year, up from a July forecast of 0.7%. The agency also reiterated its forecast for a 1.5% expansion in 2025.

Inflation in the U.K. came in at 1.7% in September, a decline from 11.1% in October 2022. Lower rates of services inflation and wage growth have led economists over the last week to forecast a faster pace of interest rate cuts from the Bank of England, forecasting the central bank will take its key rate from 5.25% at the start of the year to 4.5% by the end of 2024.
Economic growth has been tepid so far this year, coming in at 0.2% in August after flatlining in June and July.

The IMF’s brighter outlook comes as the country braces for the center-left Labour Party to this month deliver its first budget in 14 years. Prime Minister Keir Starmer has warned that the package will contain “tough” decisions in order to fill what he claims is a looming £22 billion ($28.5 billion) financing shortfall — a figure disputed by his predecessors in the Conservative Party — after Labour committed to slash net borrowing.
While Starmer has ruled out increases to some major taxes, including on income and corporations, a broader package of tax hikes is anticipated. Uncertainty over the budget weighed on consumer confidence readings in August, though the S&P Global UK Consumer Sentiment Index released Monday showed households were slightly more optimistic about their finances and more willing to make large purchases.

“It’s welcome that the IMF have upgraded our growth forecast for this year, but I know there is more work to do,” Finance Minister Rachel Reeves, who took office in July, said Tuesday. Labour has previously pledged to secure the highest sustained growth in the G7 group of nations and make higher growth the core focus of its policymaking.
On Tuesday, the IMF also trimmed its 2024 growth outlook for the euro zone to 0.8% from 0.9% previously, forecasting stagnation in the bloc’s biggest economy Germany. Analysts flag a multitude of challenges facing the German economy, including intense competition for the country’s autos and wider manufacturing products, along with higher energy prices and macro uncertainty weighing on its industrial production.
Among other so-called “advanced economies,” the IMF forecasts economic expansion of 2.8% in the U.S., 1.3% in Canada and just 0.3% in Japan, which has suffered from weak demand this year amid high inflation. More

In an interview, the Treasury secretary also highlighted progress at the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund ahead of annual meetings this week.Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen rebuked China’s “opaque” lending practices and urged global financial institutions and other creditors to accelerate debt relief to low- and middle-income countries in an interview on Monday.Her comments came ahead of this week’s annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, where global economic policymakers are gathering in Washington at a pivotal moment for the world economy. Inflation has eased, but war in the Middle East has threatened to jolt energy markets. High interest rates are dogging poorer economies, which have struggled to pursue critical development initiatives given their mounting debt burdens.“It’s a substantial burden and can impede their investments in things that will promote sustainable development or dealing with pandemics or climate change,” Ms. Yellen said of the debt burdens of low- and middle-income countries.The I.M.F. and the World Bank have faced backlash in recent years for moving too slowly in their efforts to help struggling economies and for pushing nations to enact economic reform measures, such as sharp spending cuts, that have brought resistance and social unrest.The Treasury secretary will hail signs of progress at multilateral institutions like the monetary fund and the World Bank in a speech on Tuesday that highlights an expansion of lending capacity and faster approval of new projects under the direction of the Biden administration.Global debt continues to be a problem, however, and the United States has been pushing for a broader international relief initiative that goes beyond efforts to aid countries that are on the brink of defaulting on their loans.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

Voters are forever worried about the economy — the price of homes and groceries, the rise and fall of the stock market, and, of course, taxes — but the economic policies that affect these things often seem unapproachable. Donald Trump wants to cut taxes and raise tariffs. Kamala Harris wants to raise taxes on high-income households and expand the social safety net. But what does that mean? And what are they hoping to achieve?Part of what makes economic policy difficult is the need to understand not just the direct impact of a change but also its many indirect effects. A tax credit to buy houses, for example, might end up benefiting home sellers more than home purchasers if a surge in demand drives up prices.The mathematics and jargon that economists use in journals facilitate precise scientific communication, which has the indirect effect of excluding everyone else. Meanwhile, the “economists” you see on TV or hear on the radio are more often telling you (usually incorrectly) whether the economy will go into recession without explaining why.But some authors do a good job of walking the line between accessibility and expertise. Here are five books to help you crack the nut on the economy before Election Day.The Little Book of EconomicsBy Greg IpThe best way to understand things like the causes of recessions and inflation and the consequences of public debt is to take an introductory economics course and do all the problem sets. The second-best way? Read “The Little Book of Economics.” Don’t be fooled by its compact form and breezy writing: This book, by the Wall Street Journal chief economics commentator Greg Ip, manages to pack in just about everything you wanted to know but were afraid to ask about the gross domestic product.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

Even as inflation measures have eased, the high price of goods and services across the U.S. economy continues to pose a burden for individuals, businesses and policymakers.
Since prices started spiking in early 2021, food inflation has surged 22%. Eggs are up 87%, auto insurance has soared nearly 47% and gasoline, though on a downward trajectory recently, is still up 16%.
So far, rising debt hasn’t proved to be a major problem, but it’s getting there. The current debt delinquency rate is at 2.74%, the highest in nearly 12 years.
Amid the swirling currents of the good news/bad news inflation picture, the Fed has an important interest rate decision to make at its Nov. 6-7 policy meeting.

A family shops for Halloween candy at a Walmart Supercenter on October 16, 2024 in Austin, Texas. 
Brandon Bell | Getty Images

Just because the Federal Reserve is nearing its inflation goal doesn’t mean the problem is solved, as the high price of goods and services across the U.S. economy continues to pose a burden for individuals, businesses and policymakers.
Recent price reports on goods and services, despite being a bit stronger than expected, indicate that the rate of inflation over the past year is getting close to the central bank’s 2% target.

In fact, Goldman Sachs recently estimated that when the Bureau of Economic Analysis later this month releases its figures on the Fed’s favorite price measure, the inflation rate could be close enough to get rounded down to that 2% level.
But inflation is a mosaic. It can’t be captured fully by any individual yardstick, and by many metrics is still well above where most Americans, and in fact some Fed officials, feel comfortable.
Sounding like many of her colleagues, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly last Tuesday touted the easing of inflation pressures but noted that the Fed isn’t declaring victory nor is it eager to rest on its laurels.
“Continued progress towards our goals is not guaranteed, so we must stay vigilant and intentional,” she told a group gathered at the New York University Stern School of Business.

Inflation is not dead

Daly began her talk with an anecdote of a recent encounter she had while walking near her home. A young man pushing a stroller and walking a dog called out, “President Daly, are you declaring victory?” She assured him she was not waving any banners when it comes to inflation.

But the conversation encapsulated a dilemma for the Fed: If inflation is on the run, why are interest rates still so high? Conversely, if inflation still hasn’t been whipped — those who were around in the 1970s might remember the “Whip Inflation Now” buttons — why is the Fed cutting at all?
In Daly’s eyes, the Fed’s half percentage point reduction in September was an attempt at “right-sizing” policy, to bring the current rate climate in line with inflation that is well off its peak of mid-2022 at the same time as there are signs the labor market is softening.
As evidenced by the young man’s question, convincing people that inflation is easing is a tough sell.
When it comes to inflation, there are two things to remember: the rate of inflation, which is the 12-month view that garners headlines, and the cumulative effects that a more than three-year run has had on the economy.
Looking at the 12-month rate provides only a limited view.

The annual rate of CPI inflation was 2.4% in September, a vast improvement over the 9.1% top in June 2022. The CPI measure draws the bulk of public focus but is secondary to the Fed, which prefers the personal consumption expenditures price index from the Commerce Department. Taking the inputs from the CPI that feed into the PCE measure led Goldman to its conclusion that the latter measure is just a few hundredths of a percentage point from 2%.
Inflation first passed the Fed’s 2% objective in March 2021 and for months was dismissed by Fed officials as the “transitory” product of pandemic-specific factors that would soon recede. Fed Chair Jerome Powell, in his annual policy speech at the Jackson Hole, Wyoming summit this August, joked about “the good ship Transitory” and all the passengers it had in the early days of the inflation run-up.
Obviously, inflation wasn’t transitory, and the all-items CPI reading is up 18.8% since then. Food inflation has surged 22%. Eggs are up 87%, auto insurance has soared almost 47% and gasoline, though on a downward trajectory these days, is still up 16% from then. And, of course, there’s housing: The median home price has jumped 16% since Q1 of 2021 and 30% from the beginning of the pandemic-fueled buying frenzy.

Finally, while some broad measures of inflation such as CPI and PCE are pulling back, others show stubbornness.
For instance, the Atlanta Fed’s measure of “sticky price” inflation — think rent, insurance and medical care — was still running at a 4% rate in September even as “flexible CPI,” which includes food, energy and vehicle costs, was in outright deflation at -2.1%. That means that prices that don’t change a lot are still high, while those that do, in this particular case gasoline, are falling but could turn the other way.

The sticky-price measure also brings up another important point: “Core” inflation that excludes food and energy prices, which fluctuate more than other items, was still at 3.3% in September by the CPI measure and 2.7% in August as gauged by the PCE index.
While Fed officials lately have been talking more about headline numbers, historically they’ve considered core a better measure of long-run trends. That makes the inflation data even more troublesome.

Borrowing to pay higher prices

Prior to the 2021 spike, American consumers had grown accustomed to negligible inflation. Even so, during the current run, they have continued to spend, spend and spend some more despite all the grumbling about the soaring cost of living.
In the second quarter, consumer spending equaled close to $20 trillion at an annualized pace, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In September, retail sales increased a larger-than-expected 0.4%, with the group that feeds directly into gross domestic product calculations up 0.7%. However, year-over-year spending increased just 1.7%, below the 2.4% CPI inflation rate.
A growing portion of spending has come through IOUs of various forms.
Household debt totaled $20.2 trillion through the second quarter of this year, up $3.25 trillion, or 19%, from when inflation started spiking in Q1 of 2021, according to Federal Reserve data. In the second quarter of this year, household debt rose 3.2%, the biggest increase since Q3 of 2022.

So far, the rising debt hasn’t proved to be a major problem, but it’s getting there.
The current debt delinquency rate is at 2.74%, the highest in nearly 12 years though still slightly below the long-term average of around 3% in Fed data going back to 1987. However, a recent New York Fed survey showed that the perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months jumped to 14.2% of respondents, the highest level since April 2020.
And it’s not just consumers who are racking up credit.
Small business credit card usage has continued to tick higher, up more than 20% compared to pre-pandemic levels and nearing the highest in a decade, according to Bank of America. The bank’s economists expect the pressure could ease as the Fed lowers interest rates, though the magnitude of the cuts could come into question if inflation proves sticky.
In fact, the one bright spot of the small business story relative to credit balances is that they actually haven’t kept up with the 23% inflation increase going back to 2019, according to BofA.
Broadly speaking, though, sentiment is downbeat at small firms. The September survey from the National Federation of Independent Business showed that 23% of respondents still see inflation as their main problem, again the top issue for members.

The Fed’s choice

Amid the swirling currents of the good news/bad news inflation picture, the Fed has an important decision to make at its Nov. 6-7 policy meeting.
Since policymakers in September voted to lower their baseline interest rate by half a percentage point, or 50 basis points, markets have acted curiously. Rather than price in lower rates ahead, they’ve begun to indicate a higher trajectory.
The rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage, for instance, has climbed about 40 basis points since the cut, according to Freddie Mac. The 10-year Treasury yield has moved up by a similar amount, and the 5-year breakeven rate, a bond market inflation gauge that measures the 5-year government note against the Treasury Inflation Protected Security of the same duration, has moved up about a quarter point and recently was at its highest level since early July.
SMBC Nikko Securities has been a lone voice on Wall Street encouraging the Fed to take a break from cuts until it can gain greater clarity about the current situation. The firm’s position has been that with stock market prices eclipsing new records as the Fed has shifted into easing mode, softening financial conditions threaten to push inflation back up. (Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic recently indicated that a November pause is a possibility he’s considering.)
“For Fed policymakers, lower interest rates are likely to further ease financial conditions, thereby boosting the wealth effect through higher equity prices. Meanwhile, a fraught inflationary backdrop should persist,” SMBC chief economist Joseph LaVorgna, who was a senior economist in the Donald Trump White House, wrote in a note Friday.
That leaves folks like the young man who Daly, the San Francisco Fed president, encountered uneasy about the future and hinting whether the Fed perhaps is making a policy mistake.
“I think we can move towards [a world] where people have time to catch up and then get ahead,” Daly said during her talk in New York. “That is, I told the young father on the sidewalk, my version of victory, and that’s when I will consider the job done.” More

The Biden administration rang up a budget topping $1.8 trillion in fiscal 2024, up more than 8% from the previous year and the third highest on record.
Interest expense for the year totaled $1.16 trillion, the first time that figure has topped the trillion-dollar level.

The U.S. Treasury building in Washington, D.C., on Aug. 15, 2023.
Nathan Howard | Bloomberg | Getty Images

The Biden administration rang up a budget deficit topping $1.8 trillion in fiscal 2024, up more than 8% from the previous year and the third highest on record, the Treasury Department said Friday.
Even with a modest surplus in September, the shortfall totaled $1.833 trillion, $138 billion higher than a year ago. The only years the U.S. has seen a great deficit were 2020 and 2021 when the government poured trillions into spending associated with the Covid-19 pandemic.

The deficit came despite record receipts of $4.9 trillion, which fell well short of outlays of $6.75 trillion.
Government debt has swelled to $35.7 trillion, an increase of $2.3 trillion from the end of fiscal 2023.
One aggravating factor for the debt and deficit picture has been high interest rates from the Federal Reserve’s series of hikes to fight inflation.
Interest expense for the year totaled $1.16 trillion, the first time that figure has topped the trillion-dollar level. Net of interest earned on the government’s investments, the total was a record $882 billion, the third-largest outlay in the budget, outstripping all other items except Social Security and health care.
The average interest rate on all the government debt was 3.32% for 2024, up from 2.97% the previous year, a Treasury official said.

The government did run a surplus in September of $64.3 billion, the product in part of calendar effects that pushed benefit payments into August, which saw a $380 billion deficit, the biggest month of the year.
As a share of the total U.S. economy, the deficit is running above 6%, unusual historically during an expansion and well above the 3.7% historical average over the past 50 years, according to the Congressional Budget Office.
The CBO expects deficits to continue to rise, hitting $2.8 trillion by 2034. On the debt side, the office expects it to rise from the current level near 100% of GDP to 122% in 2034.

Don’t miss these insights from CNBC PRO More

The 2024 election could be won or lost on the strength of the Black vote, which could in turn be won or lost based on the strength of the American economy. So it is no surprise that candidates are paying a lot of attention — and lip service — to which of the past two administrations did more to improve the lives of Black workers.Former President Donald J. Trump, the Republican candidate, makes big claims about the gains Black workers made under his watch, saying that he had the “lowest African American unemployment rate” and “the lowest African American poverty rate ever recorded.” But those measures improved even more under the Biden administration, with joblessness touching a record low and poverty falling even further.“Currently, Black workers are doing better than they were in 2019,” said Valerie Wilson, a labor economist whose work focuses on racial disparities at the liberal-leaning advocacy organization EPI Action.That may sound like an unambiguous victory for Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee, especially when paired with a recent increase in homeownership rates for Black families and the fact that the Black unemployment rate dipped in September.But even with those notable wins, the economy has not been uniformly good for all Black Americans. Rapid inflation has been tough on many families, chipping away at solid wage growth. Although the labor market for Black workers was the strongest ever recorded for much of 2022 and 2023, the long shadow of big price increases may be keeping people from feeling like they are getting ahead.In fact, nearly three in four Black respondents rated the economy as fair or poor, a recent New York Times/Siena College poll of Black likely voters found. And that is notable, because Black voters do tend to prioritize economic issues — not just for themselves, but also for the overall welfare of Black people — when they are thinking about whether and how to vote.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

Former President Donald J. Trump’s costly tax agenda undermines the changes he signed into law in 2017. Some Republicans are wary.When former President Donald J. Trump started proposing new tax cuts on the campaign trail, pledging “no taxes on tips” in June, Republicans rallied around his idea. Even Vice President Kamala Harris, his Democratic rival, copied it.Four months and half a dozen proposed tax cuts later, Republican lawmakers and aides on Capitol Hill, as well as some economists in touch with Mr. Trump’s campaign, are taking a more circumspect approach. Asked whether they supported Mr. Trump’s proposals, a typical response was: Let’s see after the election.“I’ll decide what my position is on it once we see what the whole picture is next year,” Senator Michael D. Crapo, an Idaho Republican who could lead the chamber’s tax-writing committee if his party regains control of the Senate, said last month.The caution is a sign that Mr. Trump’s ideas may be too expensive and outlandish for Republicans in Congress to embrace. The rest of the party had been focused on extending the 2017 tax cuts that Mr. Trump signed into law. Some of Mr. Trump’s recent proposals undercut changes that were made as part of that tax package.Even if Mr. Trump and his party control Washington next year, Republicans will be in a far different place on tax policy than they were in 2017. Back then, Republicans on Capitol Hill spent years making plans for a tax overhaul, with a focus on cutting the corporate tax rate and simplifying elements of the code.Once they were in office, they put those plans into motion. Mr. Trump’s general desire to cut taxes fit in with the party’s pre-existing agenda, and conservatives achieved many of their goals with the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More