Evelyn Reynolds

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    The unemployment rate of Black men rose in January, underscoring continued inequality in labor market

    Black males who were at least 20 years old saw an unemployment rate of 5.3% in January, up from 4.6% in December.
    By comparison, white men saw a jobless rate of just 3.3% in January, holding steady from December.
    The average white worker age 16 or older had a median weekly pay that was nearly 20% higher than their Black counterparts, according to federal data as of the last quarter of 2023

    A networking and hiring event for professionals of color in Minneapolis, Minnesota.
    Michael Siluk | Getty Images

    Black men lost ground in the workforce last month, marking a continuation of the disparities that have permeated the U.S. labor market.
    Black males who were at least 20 years old saw an unemployment rate of 5.3% in January, up from 4.6% in December, according to seasonally adjusted data released Friday from the U.S. Department of Labor. These workers had the highest unemployment rate when breaking down Black, Hispanic and white workers by gender.

    By comparison, white men saw a jobless rate of just 3.3% in January, holding steady from December. The overall unemployment rate was unchanged from December at 3.7%.
    Meanwhile, the Black community as a whole was the only tracked racial group to see unemployment increase from December. This underscores the effect of job losses among Black men, especially considering the fact that the rate for Black women was unchanged between December and January at 4.8%.
    Though the uptick in the unemployment rate for Black men is something to monitor, it can be more indicative of an anomaly in December’s low data, said Elise Gould, senior economist at the Economic Policy Institute. January’s 5.3% rate comes basically in line with the average 2023 month, while December’s 4.6% was the lowest level seen in the year.
    The tight labor market experienced during the Covid-19 pandemic helped close the gap in work-related opportunities among Black and white men, she said. Indeed, the difference in unemployment rates between Black and white men shrunk to 2 percentage points in January from 4.1 percentage points in the same month in 2019.
    Growth in the total number of employed Black men and the ratio of those with jobs to the total population compared with the start of 2023 also paints a picture of improvement, she added.

    But Gould said the continued inequity in employment and pay highlights the need for further social progress, while bolstering the argument that a strong labor market alone won’t bring equality.
    The average white worker age 16 or older had a median weekly pay that was nearly 20% higher than their Black counterparts, according to federal data as of the last quarter of 2023. That disparity grew to almost 25% when looking at male workers alone.
    “A better economy absolutely can help historically disadvantaged groups more because they’re the ones that are often left out and are slow to recover in weaker times,” Gould said. “Full employment is definitely sort of a requirement for many historically marginalized groups to be able to see positive impact in the labor market, but it’s not the only thing.”
    She pointed to unions as one example of a positive force for Black workers, noting that the wage transparency among members can help close any racial pay gaps.

    ‘A canary in the coal mine’

    When combining genders, the unemployment rates of white and Asian workers ticked lower in January to levels last seen in late fall. The rate of unemployed Hispanics held steady from December at 5%, while the share of jobless Black workers inched higher to 5.3% from 5.2%.
    Gould warned that month-to-month variations like what was seen in the unemployment rate of Black men can be fickle. Due to this, she said it’s important to evaluate longer-term trends before drawing conclusions.
    Still, Gould said following employment patterns among Black workers and other marginalized groups can be important for spotting major economic trends. That’s true even when broader employment data like what was released on Friday signals a “hot” labor market, she added.
    “It’s a canary in the coal mine,” she said. “When you’re thinking about where you’re going to see the signs of a recession, you’re not seeing it in the data today, but it’s always something to keep an eye on.”
    — CNBC’s Gabriel Cortes contributed reporting.Don’t miss these stories from CNBC PRO: More

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    Job Market Starts 2024 With a Bang

    U.S. employers added 353,000 jobs in January, far exceeding forecasts, and revised figures showed last year was even stronger than previously reported.The United States produced an unexpectedly sizable batch of jobs last month, a boon for American workers that shows the labor market retains remarkable strength after three years of expansion.Employers added 353,000 jobs in January on a seasonally adjusted basis, the Labor Department reported on Friday, and the unemployment rate remained at 3.7 percent.The report also put an even shinier gloss on job growth for 2023, including revisions that added more than 100,000 to the figure previously tallied for December. All told, employers added 3.1 million jobs last year, more than the 2.7 million initially reported.After the loss of 14 percent of the nation’s jobs early in the Covid-19 pandemic, the labor market’s endurance despite aggressive interest rate increases has caught economists off guard.“I think everyone is surprised at the strength,” said Sara Rutledge, an independent economics consultant. “It’s almost like a ‘pinch me’ scenario.”Ms. Rutledge helped tabulate the National Association for Business Economics’ latest member survey, which found rising optimism that the country would avoid a recession — matching a turnaround in measures of consumer sentiment as inflation has eased.Unemployment has been under 4 percent for 24 monthsUnemployment rate More

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    U.S. Leading Soft Landing for Global Economy

    Economies all over the world are lowering inflation while avoiding serious recession — but growth in the United States stands out.The world is starting 2024 on an optimistic economic note, as inflation fades globally and growth remains more resilient than many forecasters had expected. Yet one country stands out for its surprising strength: the United States.After a sharp pop in prices rocked the world in 2021 and 2022 — fueled by supply chain breakdowns tied to the pandemic, then oil and food price spikes related to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine — many nations are now watching inflation recede. And that is happening without the painful recessions that many economists had expected as central banks raised interest rates to bring inflation under control.But the details differ from place to place. Forecasters from the Federal Reserve to the International Monetary Fund have been most surprised at the remarkable strength of the U.S. economy, while growth in places like the United Kingdom and Germany remains more lackluster. The question is why America has pulled out ahead of other developed economies in the pack.The I.M.F. said this week that it expected the United States to grow 2.1 percent, a sharp upgrade from the previous estimate of 1.5 percent. Other major advanced economies are also expected to grow, albeit less quickly. The euro area is expected to notch out 0.9 percent growth, as is Japan, and the United Kingdom is forecast to expand by 0.6 percent. “This is a good situation, let’s be honest, this is a good economy,” Jerome H. Powell, the chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve, said at a news conference this week — two of nearly 20 times that he called the data “good” during his remarks.Evidence of that strength continued on Friday, when a blockbuster jobs report showed that employers had added 353,000 jobs in January and wages grew at a rapid clip.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    For Biden, a Sunny Economy Could Finally Be a Potential Gain

    Recession fears have eased. Growth and job gains are beating expectations. Inflation is cooling. Consumers are happier. The president is waiting to benefit.A run of strong economic data appears to have finally punctured consumers’ sour mood about the U.S. economy, blasting away recession fears and potentially aiding President Biden in his re-election campaign.Mr. Biden has struggled to sell voters on the positive signs in the economy under his watch, including rapid job gains, low unemployment and the fastest rebound in economic growth from the pandemic recession of any wealthy country.For much of Mr. Biden’s term, forecasters warned of imminent recession. Consumers remained glum, and voters told pollsters they were angry with the president for the other big economic development of his tenure: a surge of inflation that peaked in 2022, with the fastest rate of price growth in four decades.Much of that narrative appears to be changing. After lagging price growth early in Mr. Biden’s term, wages are now rising faster than inflation. The economy grew 3.1 percent from the end of 2022 to the end of 2023, defying expectations, including robust growth at the end of the year. The inflation rate is falling toward historically normal levels. U.S. stock markets are recording record highs.The Federal Reserve, which sharply raised interest rates to tame price growth, signaled this week that it was likely to start cutting rates soon. “This is a good economy,” Jerome H. Powell, the Fed chair, whose central bank is independent from the White House, declared at a news conference this week.The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index has jumped in each of the past two months. A key component of it, in which consumers rate their current economic situations, is closing in on its recent high from February 2020, on the eve of the coronavirus pandemic.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    U.S. economy added 353,000 jobs in January, much better than expected

    Nonfarm payrolls expanded by 353,000 for the month, better than the Dow Jones estimate for 185,000. The unemployment rate held at 3.7%, against the estimate for 3.8%.
    Average hourly earnings increased 0.6%, double the monthly estimate. On a year-over-year basis, wages jumped 4.5%, well above the 4.1% forecast.
    Job growth was widespread in January, led by professional and business services with 74,000. Other significant contributors included health care (70,000) and retail trade (45,000).

    Job growth posted a surprisingly strong increase in January, demonstrating again that the U.S. labor market is solid and poised to support broader economic growth.
    Nonfarm payrolls expanded by 353,000 for the month, much better than the Dow Jones estimate for 185,000, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday. The unemployment rate held at 3.7%, against the estimate for 3.8%.

    Wage growth also showed strength, as average hourly earnings increased 0.6%, double the monthly estimate. On a year-over-year basis, wages jumped 4.5%, well above the 4.1% forecast. The wage gains came amid a decline in average hours worked, down to 34.1, or 0.2 hour lower for the month.

    Job growth was widespread on the month, led by professional and business services with 74,000. Other significant contributors included health care (70,000), retail trade (45,000), government (36,000), social assistance (30,000) and manufacturing (23,000).
    “This just reaffirms that the jobs market is entering 2024 on solid ground,” said Daniel Zhao, lead economist at Glassdoor. “The fact that job growth was so widespread across industries is a healthy sign. Coming into today’s report, we were concerned about how concentrated jobs were in really just three sectors — health care, education and government. While it is great to see those sectors drive job gains, there was no guarantee that would be enough to support a health labor market.”
    The report also indicated that December’s job gains were much better than originally reported. The month posted a gain of 333,000, which was an upward revision of 117,000 from the initial estimate. November also was revised up, to 182,000, or 9,000 higher than the last estimate.
    DON’T MISS: The ultimate guide to acing your interview and landing your dream job

    While the report demonstrated the resilience of the U.S. economy, it also could raise questions about how soon the Federal Reserve will be able to lower interest rates.
    “Make no mistake, this was a blowout jobs report and will vindicate the recent posturing by the Fed which effectively ruled out an interest rate cut in March,” said George Mateyo, chief investment officer at Key Private Bank. “Moreover, strong job gains combined with faster than expected wage gains may suggest an additional delay in rate cuts for 2024 and should cause some market participants to recalibrate their thinking.”

    Futures markets shifted after the report, with traders now pricing in a better than 80% chance that the Fed does not cut interest rates at its March meeting, according to the CME Group.
    Stocks were mixed following the report. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped at the open but the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both were positive. Treasury yields surged.
    The January payrolls count comes with economists and policymakers closely watching employment figures for direction on the larger economy. Some high-profile layoffs recently have raised questions about the durability of what has been a powerful trend in hiring.
    A more encompassing measure of unemployment that includes discouraged workers and those holding part-time jobs for economic reasons edged higher to 7.2%. The household survey, which measures the number of people actually holding jobs, differed sharply from the establishment survey, showing a decline of 31,000 on the month. The labor force participation rate was unchanged at 62.5%.

    One potentially important caveat in the report could be the divergence between average hourly earnings and hours worked. Retail trade saw a fresh historical low of 29.1 hour in data going back to March 2006.
    “This suggests that employers chose to reduce hours rather than resort to layoffs for the moment,” the Conference Board said in a report analysis.
    Broader layoff numbers, such as the Labor Department’s weekly report on initial jobless claims, show companies hesitant to part with workers in such a tight labor market.
    Gross domestic product growth also has defied expectations.
    The fourth quarter saw GDP increase at a strong 3.3% annualized pace, closing out a year in which the economy defied widespread predictions for a recession. Growth in 2023 came even as the Fed further raised interest rates in its quest to bring down inflation.
    The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracker is pointing toward a 4.2% gain in the first quarter of 2024, albeit with limited data of where things are heading for the first three months of the year.
    The economic, employment and inflation dynamics make for a complicated picture as the Fed seeks to ease monetary policy. Earlier this week, the Fed again held benchmark short-term borrowing costs steady and indicated that rate cuts could be ahead but not until inflation shows further signs of cooling.

    Chair Jerome Powell indicated in his post-meeting news conference that the central bank does not have a “growth mandate” and said central bankers remain concerned about the impact that high inflation is having on consumers, particularly those on the lower end of the income scale.
    Outside of the wage numbers, recent data is showing that inflation is moving in the right direction.
    Core inflation as measured by personal consumption expenditures prices was just 2.9% in December on a year-over-year basis, while six- and three-month gauges both indicated the Fed is at or around its 2% goal.
    Still, the Atlanta Fed’s measure of “sticky” inflation, which focuses on items such as housing, medical care services and insurance costs, was at 4.6% on a 12-month basis in December.
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    Trump’s Tariffs Hurt U.S. Jobs but Swayed American Voters, Study Says

    New research finds that former President Donald J. Trump’s tariffs did not bring back U.S. jobs, but voters appeared to reward him for the levies anyway.The sweeping tariffs that former President Donald J. Trump imposed on China and other American trading partners were simultaneously a political success and an economic failure, a new study suggests. That’s because the levies won over voters for the Republican Party even though they did not bring back jobs.The nonpartisan working paper examines monthly data on U.S. employment by industry to find that the tariffs that Mr. Trump placed on foreign metals, washing machines and an array of goods from China starting in 2018 neither raised nor lowered the overall number of jobs in the affected industries.But the tariffs did incite other countries to impose their own retaliatory tariffs on American products, making them more expensive to sell overseas, and those levies had a negative effect on American jobs, the paper finds. That was particularly true in agriculture: Farmers who exported soybeans, cotton and sorghum to China were hit by Beijing’s decision to raise tariffs on those products to as much as 25 percent.The Trump administration aimed to offset those losses by offering financial support for farmers, ultimately giving out $23 billion in 2018 and 2019. But those funds were distributed unevenly, a government assessment found, and the economists say those subsidies only partially mitigated the harm that had been caused by the tariffs.The findings contradict Mr. Trump’s claims that his tariffs helped to reverse some of the damage done by competition from China and bring back American manufacturing jobs that had gone overseas. The economists conclude that the aggregate effect on U.S. jobs of the three measures — the original tariffs, retaliatory tariffs and subsidies granted to farmers — were “at best a wash, and it may have been mildly negative.”“Certainly you can reject the hypothesis that this tariff policy was very successful at bringing back jobs to those industries that got a lot of exposure to that tariff war,” one of the study authors, David Dorn of the University of Zurich, said in an interview.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Biden Takes Aim at Grocery Chains Over Food Prices

    President Biden has begun to accuse stores of overcharging shoppers, as food costs remain a burden for consumers and a political problem for the president.President Biden, whose approval rating has suffered amid high inflation, is beginning to pressure large grocery chains to slash food prices for American consumers, accusing the stores of reaping excess profits and ripping off shoppers.“There are still too many corporations in America ripping people off: price gouging, junk fees, greedflation, shrinkflation,” Mr. Biden said last week in South Carolina. Aides say those comments are a preview of more pressure to come against grocery chains and other companies that are maintaining higher-than-usual profit margins after a period of rapid price growth.Mr. Biden’s public offensive reflects the political reality that, while inflation is moderating, voters are angry about how much they are paying at the grocery store and that is weighing on Mr. Biden’s approval rating ahead of the 2024 election.Economic research suggests the cost of eggs, milk and other staples — which consumers buy far more frequently than big-ticket items like furniture or electronics — play an outsized role in shaping Americans’ views of inflation. Those prices jumped by more than 11 percent in 2022 and by 5 percent last year, amid a post-pandemic inflation surge that was the nation’s fastest burst of price increases in four decades.The rate of increase is slowing rapidly: In December, prices for food consumed at home were up by just over 1 percent, according to the Labor Department. But administration officials say Mr. Biden is keenly aware that prices remain too elevated for many families, even as key items, like gasoline and household furnishings, are now cheaper than they were at their post-pandemic peak.And yet, there is a general belief across administration officials and their allies that there is little else Mr. Biden could do unilaterally to force grocery prices down quickly.Grocery store margins are rising

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    Operating profit margin by type of retailer
    Notes: Operating margin defined as sales, receipts and operating revenue as a share of operating expenses. Data shown as four-quarter rolling average.Source: Council of Economic AdvisersBy The New York TimesWe are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    January hiring was the lowest for the month on record as layoffs surged

    A UPS driver makes a delivery on January 30, 2024 in Miami Beach, Florida. 
    Joe Raedle | Getty Images

    Companies announced the highest level of job cuts in January since early 2023, a potential trouble spot for a labor market that will be in sharp focus this year, according to a report Thursday from Challenger, Gray & Christmas.
    The job outplacement firm said planned layoffs totaled 82,307 for the month, a jump of 136% from December though still down 20% from the same period a year ago.

    It was the second-highest layoff total and the lowest planned hiring level for the month of January in data going back to 2009.
    Technology and finance were the hardest-hit sectors, with high-flying Silicon Valley leaders such as Microsoft, Alphabet and PayPal announcing workforce cuts to start the year. Amazon also said it would be cutting as did UPS in the biggest month for layoffs since March 2023.
    “Waves of layoff announcements hit US-based companies in January after a quiet fourth quarter,” said Andrew Challenger, senior vice president of the firm. The cuts were “driven by broader economic trends and a strategic shift towards increased automation and AI adoption in various sectors, though in most cases, companies point to cost-cutting as the main driver for layoffs,”
    Financial sector layoffs totaled 23,238, the worst month for the category since September 2018. Tech layoffs totaled 15,806, the highest since May 2023. Food producers announced 6,656, the highest since November 2012.
    “High costs and advancing automation technology are reshaping the food production industry. Additionally, climate change and immigration policies are influencing labor dynamics and operational challenges in this sector,” Challenger said.

    The report follows news Wednesday from ADP that private payrolls increased by just 107,000 for the month. On Friday, the Labor Department will be releasing its nonfarm payrolls count, which is expected to show growth of 185,000.
    Initial jobless claims totaled 224,000 for the week ended Jan. 27, up 9,000 from the previous week. Continuing claims, which run a week behind, jumped by 70,000, the Labor Department reported Thursday.
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