Evelyn Reynolds

In the most likely scenario being priced in by markets, the Fed on Sept. 17 will lower the overnight funds rate by 25 basis points, or 0.25 percentage point.
However, traders left open a remote chance that the central bank’s Federal Open Market Committee still could enact a half-point reduction.
Fed officials will get inflation data later this week on producer and consumer prices, the last major data releases before the meeting. Higher-than-expected CPI would likely cement the quarter-point move.

Traders work at the New York Stock Exchange on Aug. 29, 2025.

Traders are leaving open the option the Federal Reserve next week could cut its key interest rate by half a percentage point, though most on Wall Street think the bar for doing so is pretty high.
In the most likely scenario being priced in by markets, the Fed on Sept. 17 will lower the overnight funds rate by 25 basis points, or 0.25 percentage point. Odds for a quarter-point cut were around 88% on Monday afternoon, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool that measures odds of Fed action based on 30-day fed funds futures contracts.

However, that left open a remote chance that the central bank’s Federal Open Market Committee still could enact a half-point reduction, as it did at the September meeting in 2024. Chances of that were at 12% as traders disregarded any possibility the committee might stay put.
Market sentiment shifted even more toward Fed easing after Friday’s jobs report showed that nonfarm payrolls expanded by just 22,000 in August while the unemployment rate rose to a nearly four-year high of 4.3%.
“The soft August jobs report will help drive consensus across the committee that not only should rate cuts resume this month, but that further cuts will likely be appropriate in coming months,” Citigroup economist Andrew Hollenhorst said in a note after the payrolls release.
While Hollenhorst thinks there could be some support on the FOMC for a bigger move, “we do not think the majority of the committee would support a 50 [basis point] cut.” Those possibly favoring a larger move include Governors Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller, as well as Stephen Miran should the Senate confirm him before the Fed convenes.
Citi holds a slightly out-of-consensus view that the FOMC will cut at each of its next five meetings as officials look through the current inflation trends and focus more on weakness in the labor market. The call is predicated on Fed officials continuing to worry about inflation but focusing more on jobs.

“The August employment report solidifies the case for the Fed to deliver a series of insurance cuts at upcoming meetings,” Nomura economist David Seif wrote. “With inflation risks elevated, we expect officials would need to see clearer evidence of labor market stress or a sharp tightening in market financial conditions before delivering more aggressive easing.”
Current market expectations are that the Fed cuts next week, skips October and lowers again in December.
In the era since FOMC chairs started having news conferences after each meeting — begun in 2019 with current Chair Jerome Powell — it’s been rare for the Fed to skip meetings during periods where it was adjusting rates.
However, Apollo economist Torsten Slok said policymakers are in a ticklish spot now with inflation still above target and the soft jobs picture, putting the central bank’s dual goals of stable prices and full employment in conflict.

CPI ahead

Fed officials will get inflation data later this week on producer and consumer prices, the last major data releases before the meeting. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones expect the all-items inflation rate to rise to 2.9% though core is expected to hold at 3.1%. Higher-than-expected CPI would likely cement the quarter-point move.
“In the worst case, if inflation surprises to the upside, it will really make it tricky, and we could begin to have a discussion about this sense next week,” Slok said Monday on CNBC. “Namely, how does the Fed do policymaking when one side of the dual mandate says it should be cutting and the other side says it should be hiking?”
Slok said he still expects the Fed bias to be toward easing even with stubborn inflation.
“I think that they will begin to talk more about inflation expectations and begin to put less weight on current inflation and instead on future inflation,” he said.

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The New York Fed’s monthly Survey of Consumer Expectations indicated a 44.9% probability of finding another job after losing their current one, the lowest in the survey’s history.
Expectations that the unemployment rate will be higher a year from now rose to 39.1%, up 1.7 percentage points from July.

In the latest sign of trouble for the U.S. labor market, confidence in the ability to move from one job to another has hit a record low, according to a New York Federal Reserve survey released Monday.
Respondents to the central bank’s monthly Survey of Consumer Expectations for August indicated a 44.9% probability of finding another job after losing their current one. The reading tumbled 5.8 percentage points from the prior month and is the lowest in the survey’s history dating back to June 2013.

The result further demonstrates the reversal of the “Great Resignation” that occurred in 2021-22, when at one point 4.5 million workers a month were quitting their jobs and feeling good about finding new ones. That number stood at 3.2 million in July, well off the pace of a few years ago and down more than 5% from the same period in 2024, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics figures.
“Consumers are feeling down about job-finding opportunities, and those feelings are wholly appropriate,” said Elizabeth Renter, senior economist at consumer site NerdWallet. “It’s very difficult to find work right now. And unlikely to get better any time soon. Employers aren’t hiring much, so workers are stuck job-hugging, clinging to their current jobs because the market isn’t favorable to job seekers.”
Various factors that had come into play during the Covid pandemic helped influence the high level of mobility, including a supply-demand mismatch in the labor market that saw more than two open jobs for each available worker.
But a labor market that has ground to a virtual standstill has ended the trend. While there are not too many signs that employers are laying off workers en masse, hiring has slowed dramatically. That has caused workers to stay put in their jobs as uncertainty over inflation and economic growth has caused employers to be cautious about growing payrolls.
There are now more workers available than job openings, something that hasn’t been the case since well before Covid.

Other parts of the Fed survey reflect the trend: The probability of leaving one’s job voluntarily over the next year was little changed, down just 0.1 percentage point to 18.9%. At the same time, expectations that the unemployment rate will be higher a year from now rose to 39.1%, up 1.7 percentage points from July and a point above the 12-month average.
The results follow a dismal August nonfarm payrolls count.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday reported just 22,000 new jobs on the month, well below the expectation for 75,000. Moreover, the June count was revised lower to a loss of 13,000, the first monthly decline since December 2020. The unemployment rate rose to 4.3% while a broader level that includes discouraged workers and the underemployed climbed to 8.1%, both the highest since October 2021.
Markets widely expect the Fed to respond to the labor market weakness with its first interest rate cut since December 2024 when it next decides on rates on Sept. 17.

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Nonfarm payrolls increased by just 22,000 for the month, lower than the 75,000 forecast, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%.
The report showed a marked slowdown from the July increase of 79,000, which was revised up by 6,000. Revisions also showed a net loss of 13,000 in June.
Health care again led by sectors, adding 31,000 jobs, while social assistance contributed 16,000. Wholesale trade and manufacturing both saw declines of 12,000 on the month.

Job creation sputtered in August, adding to recent signs of labor market weakening and likely keeping the Federal Reserve on track for a widely anticipated interest rate cut later this month.
Nonfarm payrolls increased by just 22,000 for the month, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, according to a Bureau of Labor Statistics report Friday. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for payrolls to rise by 75,000.

The report showed a marked slowdown from the July increase of 79,000, which was revised up by 6,000. Revisions also showed a net loss of 13,000 in June after the prior estimate was lowered by 27,000.

“The job market is stalling short of the runway,” said Daniel Zhao, chief economist at jobs site Glassdoor. “The labor market is losing lift, and August’s report, along with downward revisions, suggests we’re heading into turbulence without the soft landing achieved.”
The payrolls count was the first since President Donald Trump fired former BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer following the release of the July jobs report a month ago. The move came after the report showed not just a weak level of job creation but also dramatic reductions in previous months’ totals.
In McEntarfer’s place, the president nominated economist E.J. Antoni, a Trump loyalist from the Heritage Foundation who previously had criticized the BLS numbers as being politically distorted. William Wiatrowski is serving as acting BLS commissioner.
While the pace of hiring was slow, average hourly earnings increased 0.3% for the month, meeting the estimate, though the annual gain of 3.7% was slightly below the forecast for 3.8%.

Hiring was held back by a payroll reduction in the federal government, which reported a decline of 15,000.
Health care again led by sectors, adding 31,000 jobs, while social assistance contributed 16,000. Wholesale trade and manufacturing both saw declines of 12,000 on the month.
The report comes as markets widely expect the Fed to lower its benchmark interest rate by a quarter percentage point when it releases its next decision Sept. 17. Fed Chair Jerome Powell and his fellow policymakers also have been under heavy criticism from the president as they have been on hold since last cutting in December 2024.
Though most economic indicators indicate continued expansion, Fed officials have expressed concern about a slowdown in hiring even as layoffs have held fairly steady. At the same time, policymakers worry that Trump’s tariffs could reignite inflation, with data indicating a slow but steady increase in prices over recent months.
“The warning bell that rang in the labor market a month ago just got louder. A weaker-than-expected jobs report all but seals a 25-basis-point rate cut later this month,” said Olu Sonola, head of U.S. economic research at Fitch Ratings. “Four straight months of manufacturing job losses stand out. It’s hard to argue that tariff uncertainty isn’t a key driver of this weakness.”
While the establishment survey showed weak job creation, the more volatile household count, used to calculate the unemployment rate, held better news.
That report showed an increase of 288,000 employed, though the ranks of the unemployed also rose by 148,000. The labor force participation rate edged higher to 62.3% while the labor force swelled by 436,000, accounting for the tick higher in the unemployment rate.

A broader measure of unemployment that includes discouraged workers and those holding part-time jobs for economic reasons climbed to 8.1%, a 0.2 percentage point increase and the highest level since October 2021.
Along with the jobs numbers tally, the BLS at 10 am ET will release the initial estimate for annual benchmark revisions to the numbers dating back one year from March 2025.
Revisions have been source of controversy, particularly in the post-Covid era as the response rate has declined, particularly for the headline establishment survey that asks businesses and government agencies to detail the pace of hiring.
The BLS typically releases its initial estimate with the first batch of survey responses it gets, then updates two times as it gets more information. However, Trump has accused the BLS of being politically biased. More

Tokyo agreed to invest $550 billion in projects selected by the U.S. government, and ramping up purchases of American agricultural products.
Washington will apply a baseline 15% tariff on nearly all Japanese imports, along with separate sector-specific levies.
Analysts at Eurasia Group suggested in a report Friday that Ishiba was unlikely to survive a challenge from within the party next Monday.

Newly manufactured cars awaiting export at a port in Yokohama, south of Tokyo, Japan, on March 27, 2025.
Issei Kato | Reuters

U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order Thursday stateside to implement a trade deal with Japan, with 15% baseline tariffs on most Japanese goods, including autos.
The deal had been reached in July after months of negotiations, with Washington and Tokyo continuing to haggle over details for weeks before it was signed.

As part of the deal, Tokyo agreed to invest $550 billion in projects selected by the U.S. government and ramp up its purchase of American agricultural products, such as corn and soybeans, as well as U.S.-made commercial aircrafts and defense equipment.
The U.S. ally in Asia will also offer “breakthrough openings in market access” in the manufacturing, aerospace, agriculture and automobile sectors, the Thursday order said. The agreement reached in July had included Japan purchasing 100 Boeing planes, 75% higher imports of U.S. rice and $8 billion worth of agricultural and crop products.
Washington will apply a baseline 15% tariff on nearly all Japanese imports, with separate sector-specific levies for automobiles and parts (also 15%), aerospace products, generic pharmaceutical goods and natural resources, according to the executive order.
The Thursday order prevents Trump’s country-specific tariffs on top of existing levies. The lower tariffs will apply retroactively to Japanese goods “entered for consumption or withdrawn from warehouse for consumption on or after 12:01 a.m. eastern daylight time on August 7, 2025,” the order stated. The tariff relief on automobiles is set to take effect after seven days.
Trump’s global tariff campaign has thrown the global supply chain into disarray, in particular Japan’s massive auto sector. Last month, Toyota warned that it expected a hit of nearly $10 billion as Trump’s tariffs on autos weighed on its sales to the U.S., forcing it to slash by 16% its forecast for full-year operating profits.

Tariffs are expected to hit rivals as well, with Ford’s pre-tax adjusted profit reportedly set to drop $3 billion while GM projects $4 billion to $5 billion hit for the year.
Japan’s top trade negotiator, Ryosei Akazawa, who was in Washington, delivered a letter from Japan’s Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba inviting Trump to visit his country, Kyoto News reported. The Japanese official had reportedly canceled his trip to the U.S. last month as some sticking points required “further technical discussion.”

Political tides

The finalizing of the deal came as political pressure for the Japanese leader mounts at home. The ruling Liberal Democratic Party earlier this week released a long-awaited report on why it lost seats in the upper house election in July.
The report ascribed the loss to the lack of appeal for the party’s measures aimed at taming inflation, previous political scandals and weak mobilization of young voters.
Local media reports suggested many key members of the LDP have signaled their intention to resign to the prime minister, while Ishiba has said he intends to stay on amid calls within his party for choosing another leader.
Though the reports have avoided naming individuals, they signal an “implicit indictment of Ishiba’s leadership of the party,” said James Brady, vice president at political consultancy Teneo.
Analysts at Eurasia Group suggested in a report Friday that Ishiba is unlikely to survive a challenge from within the party next Monday, when a vote on whether to bring forward a leadership election is expected to take place.
“Ishiba’s poor performance as party leader in lower and upper house elections and events in recent days, including former prime minister Aso Taro announcing his support for the special election, have turned the tide against Ishiba,” analysts said, predicting a 60% odd of Ishiba’s defeat in the election, with him possibly resigning before the vote takes place as internal discontent grows. More

U.S. private sector hiring rose less than expected in August and significantly cooled from the prior month, according to the ADP.
Private payrolls increased by just 54,000 in August, well short of the 75,000 estimate from economists polled by Dow Jones and down from the revised gain of 106,000 jobs added in July.
Thursday’s release adds to an already concerning picture of the labor market.

Steven Chechette (C) speaks with a recruiter at the KeySource booth at the Mega JobNewsUSA South Florida Job Fair held in the Amerant Bank Arena in Sunrise, Florida, on April 30, 2025.
Joe Raedle | Getty Images

U.S. private sector hiring rose less than expected in August, data released Thursday shows, offering the latest indication of trouble in the labor market.
Private payrolls increased by just 54,000 in August, according to data from processing firm ADP published Thursday morning. That’s below the consensus forecast of 75,000 from economists polled by Dow Jones and marks a significant slowdown from the revised gain of 106,000 seen in the prior month.

“The year started with strong job growth, but that momentum has been whipsawed by uncertainty,” said Nela Richardson, ADP’s chief economist, in a press release.
Richardson pointed to rising worries from consumers, labor shortages and disruptions tied to artificial intelligence as potential drivers of this decrease in growth.
Jobs tied to trade, transportation and utilities saw particular weakness in August, with the group losing 17,000 roles on net, according to the ADP. Education and health services followed, recording a decline of 12,000 jobs.
But those losses were offset in part by a boom in the leisure and hospitality industry, which added 50,000 jobs in the month.
Wage growth maintained the same pace in August. Those staying in their roles saw their pay rise 4.4% year-over-year, while job changes recorded a 7.1% increase over the same period.

Thursday’s ADP report adds to an already concerning picture of the labor market.
Jobless claims increased to 237,000, up 8,000 from the prior week and above estimates, per data also published Thursday morning. The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey registered one of its worst levels for job openings in July since 2020, according to government figures released Wednesday.
Now, attention will home in on the all-important jobs report slated for Friday morning. Economists expect the official government report to show 75,000 non-farm payrolls added in August, about even with the prior month, according to estimates collected by Dow Jones. Economists predict the unemployment rate inched up to 4.3% from 4.2%.
Labor market worries have pushed traders to build on already hefty bets that the Federal Reserve will cut rates at its meeting later this month. There’s now a 97.4% chance of a rate cut at the September gathering, up from 96.6% a day ago, according to the CME’s FedWatch tool.
— CNBC’s John Melloy contributed reporting. More

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover report showed around 7.18 million listings in July.
That’s a reading rarely seen since the Covid-19 pandemic took hold of the U.S. economy.

A “Now Hiring” sign at a Journeys store in the Brooklyn borough of New York on June 3, 2025.
Adam Gray | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Job openings ticked down in July to levels rarely seen since the Covid-19 pandemic, bolstering fears of cooling in the labor market.
The Job Openings and Labor Turnover report showed around 7.18 million listings in July, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics released Wednesday. That’s only the second reading under the 7.2 million level since the end of 2020.

Wednesday’s print was the lowest since September 2024, when just more than 7.1 million openings were reported. Outside of that blip lower last year, these job opening levels were last seen when the pandemic was causing an upheaval of the U.S. economy and labor force.

It also came in below expectations for 7.4 million openings from economists polled by Dow Jones.
That underscored rising concerns of weakening in the labor market, a trend that has shown up in anecdotal evidence for several months.
“This is a turning point for the labor market,” said Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union. “It’s yet another crack.”
“This is yet another data point underscoring how this job market is frozen and it’s difficult for anyone to get a job right now,” Long added.
Weekly jobless claims data due on Thursday will offer the next round of insight into the health of the job market. Then, attention turns to the closely followed jobs report Friday morning.

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Economists polled by Reuters had expected the rate to remain unchanged from July, at 2%.
Core inflation, which strips out more volatile food, energy, alcohol and tobacco prices, was unchanged from 2.3% in July.
At 2.1%, the euro zone’s latest inflation rate is just slightly higher than the European Central Bank’s target of 2%.

European consumers are facing higher prices when going to the supermarket.
Andia | Universal Images Group | Getty Images

Euro zone inflation edged higher to 2.1% in August, according to the latest flash data from statistics agency Eurostat on Tuesday.
Economists polled by Reuters had expected the rate to remain unchanged from July, at 2%.

Core inflation, which strips out more volatile food, energy, alcohol and tobacco prices, was unchanged from 2.3% in July. The closely watched services print meanwhile was slightly lower in August, at 3.1% compared to 3.2% in July.
At 2.1%, the euro zone’s latest inflation rate is just slightly higher than the European Central Bank’s target of 2%.
The euro was down 0.6% against the dollar, at $1.1640. The pan-European Stoxx 600 was trading 0.7% lower Tuesday morning.
The central bank held its key interest rate at 2% in July and is expected to maintain that stance when it next meets in September, according to a majority of economists polled by Reuters.
The EU’s trade deal with the U.S., signed in late July, has removed uncertainty over tariffs although there are some concerns that the blanket 15% duty of EU exports to the States could still weigh on economic activity.

The euro zone eked out 0.1% growth in the second quarter, compared to the previous quarter, Eurostat data showed in late July.

ECB rate pause likely

The slight uptick in headline inflation in August is unlikely to make much difference for policymakers at the ECB when they next meet, Andrew Kenningham, chief Europe economist at Capital Economics, noted Tuesday.
ECB policymakers “look certain to leave interest rates unchanged at next week’s meeting and probably for several months beyond that,” he said in emailed analysis.
“Most importantly for the ECB, services inflation also came down a touch, from 3.2% in July to 3.1% in August. This is the lowest rate of services inflation since March 2022 and should provide some reassurance for policymakers that domestic prices pressures are continuing to subside,” he said, predicting the services inflation would fall further in coming months as labor market conditions ease.
“We will preview the ECB’s forthcoming meeting later in the week but in short the Bank is likely to leave rates on hold for some time,” he said.

Irene Lauro, euro zone economist at Schroders, agreed that the ECB would take its time when considering the trajectory for interest rates.
“With trade uncertainty easing, the Eurozone recovery is set to gain momentum as firms ramp up borrowing and investment. In this environment, the ECB is likely to hold rates cautiously steady in September. The resilience in core inflation supports our view that policy normalisation has ended, and the ECB will closely monitor growth dynamics before making its next move,” she said in emailed comments. More

U.S. President Donald Trump has held off from imposing further punitive sanctions on Russia.
Meanwhile, Moscow has shown no signs of pursuing peace, and has increased its attacks on Ukraine in recent weeks.
The reason for the standstill is strategic and goes beyond Russia, analysts told CNBC.

U.S. President Donald Trump shakes hands with Russian President Vladimir Putin before a joint news conference following their meeting at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson in Anchorage, Alaska, U.S., August 15, 2025.
Gavriil Grigorov | Via Reuters

U.S. President Donald Trump has repeatedly said he will punish Russia and President Vladimir Putin if Moscow doesn’t come to the table and agree to peace talks or a ceasefire with Ukraine.
Russia has shown no signs of intending to do either, instead continuing and increasing its attacks on Ukraine as it looks to consolidate gains on the battlefield.

And still, Trump is holding off on releasing a big bazooka of extra sanctions and economic punishment that could hurt an already weakened Russia.
The reason for the standstill is strategic and goes beyond Russia, according to analysts, who warn the longer Trump holds off, the more he’s undermining his and the U.S.’ position.
“The Russian budget is actually under a lot of pressure… so if there were to be any more significant sanctions targeting Russian oil trade from the U.S. — which they’ve talked about but not done — that would put the budget under greater pressure. It hasn’t happened,” Chris Weafer, the chief executive of Moscow-based Macro-Advisory, told CNBC Monday.
There were two significant factors behind Trump’s reticence, Weafer said: the president’s desire to be seen as a peace-broker, and concerns over pushing Russia deeper into China’s orbit.
“Trump still thinks he can bring both sides to the table, that he could broker a peace deal, and that he can take credit for moving the conflict towards peace. And bearing in mind that the announcement on the Nobel Peace Prize will come in early October, it’s a factor, because we know the character of the of the individual,” he told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe.”

“The second reason … is there is a sense that if Russia is defeated, if Russia is completely isolated by the West, and there’s no way back in terms of engaging with the U.S. and Europe, then it has no choice but to go even further all-in with China, and that potentially then would strengthen China’s position.”

Bringing Russia and Beijing closer together would mean that the latter had “almost unlimited” access to energy resources, industrial materials and to the Arctic, the analyst said, noting that this could effectively block the U.S. from Russian-controlled parts of the Arctic.
It would also allow China greater access to Russian military technology, such as stealth submarines, and further opportunities in space exploration.
Officials in Washington were concerned about that, Weafer noted, adding, “they don’t want Russia to be essentially a more formal subsidiary of China. They want it to be more in the middle with engagement in the West. I think that’s one reason why they’re treading carefully for now.”
CNBC has contacted the White House for further comment on its strategy toward Moscow and is awaiting a response.
Ukraine, meanwhile, has watched as Trump has let self-imposed deadlines to act against Russia pass, with Kyiv left crestfallen at perceived missed opportunities to pressure Putin into a ceasefire.
“Ukrainians had hoped that Trump’s August 8 deadline for Putin to accept a cease-fire would provide more constant air defense,” John Herbst, a former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine and the head of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center, said in analysis in August.
Yet, they were disappointed when Trump let Putin cross his August 8 deadline to end the fighting without consequences. “Instead, Trump focused on summitry with Putin, which has yet to yield Russian flexibility,” Herbst wrote.
“Now they are gritting their teeth and, with many of their European partners, waiting for White House officials to realize that Russia is playing them — and to take the strong measures that Trump promised if Russia continued its war on Ukraine,” he added.

China-Russia-India ties deepen

Beijing and Moscow’s leaders were seen to be putting on a display of bonhomie at the 25th Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit on Monday. The SCO is being attended by 20 foreign leaders, including Putin and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
Against a backdrop of war in Ukraine, Trump’s tariffs and continuing oil trade, the major economies of China, Russia and India have deepened their economic and political ties while their respective relations with the West have frayed.
Chinese President Xi Jinping on Monday urged his fellow leaders attending the summit to strengthen their cooperation, and called on them to reject what he called a “Cold War mentality.”
Meanwhile, Putin told the SCO that his meeting with Trump in August had opened a path to finding a way to resolving the Ukrainian “crisis,” as he described the more than three-year war. Yet he thanked Russia’s Asian allies for their support throughout the war.

Russia’s President Vladimir Putin (front L) speaks with India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi (C) and China’s President Xi Jinping during the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Summit in Tianjin on September 1, 2025.
Alexander Kazakov | Afp | Getty Images

“We value the efforts and propositions to solve the Ukrainian crisis of China, India and other strategic partners of ours. The mutual understanding that was reached at a recent Russia-U.S. summit in Alaska heads the same direction, I hope. It paves the way to peace in Ukraine, I hope.”
Summits like the SCO were creating a new political and socio-economic ecosystem that could replace the “outdated” Euro-Atlantic-centered power model, Putin said.
This new system “would take into account the interests of a maximum number of countries and would be truly balanced,” meaning “a system in which one group of countries would not ensure its security at the expense of the others.” More