Evelyn Reynolds

More stories

  • 113 Shares149 Views

    in Economy

    A Fed Governor Reiterates That Rate Cuts Are Coming

    Christopher Waller, one of seven Washington-based Fed governors, said officials should cut rates as inflation cools — though timing was uncertain.A prominent Federal Reserve official on Tuesday laid out a case for lowering interest rates methodically at some point this year as the economy comes into balance and inflation cools — although he acknowledged that the timing of those cuts remained uncertain.Christopher Waller, one of the Fed’s seven Washington-based officials and one of the 12 policymakers who get to vote at its meetings, said during a speech at the Brookings Institution on Tuesday that he saw a case for cutting interest rates in 2024.“The data we have received the last few months is allowing the committee to consider cutting the policy rate in 2024,” Mr. Waller said. While noting that risks of higher inflation remain, he said, “I am feeling more confident that the economy can continue along its current trajectory.”Mr. Waller suggested that the Fed should lower interest rates as inflation falls. Because interest rates do not incorporate price changes, otherwise so-called real rates that are adjusted for inflation would otherwise be climbing as inflation came down, thus weighing on the economy more and more heavily.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber?  More

  • 150 Shares189 Views

    in Economy

    Germany skirts recession at the end of 2023 but faces prolonged slump

    The manufacturing sector, excluding construction, fell by a sharp 2%, led by lower production in the energy supply sector.
    The fourth quarter recorded a similar 0.3% drop compared with the July-September period.
    The office said that the German economy stagnated in the third quarter, implying the country has narrowly avoided a technical recession that is defined by two successive quarters of consecutive GDP declines.

    German Chancellor, Olaf Scholz arrives for the weekly federal government cabinet meeting on Oct. 11, 2023 in Berlin, Germany.
    Michele Tantussi | Getty Images News | Getty Images

    Europe’s largest economy contracted by 0.3% year-on-year in 2023, as high inflation and firm interest rates bit into growth, the Federal Statistical Office of Germany said Monday.
    The estimate is in line with the expectations of analysts polled by Reuters. The decline in economic output eases to 0.1% when adjusted for calendar purposes.

    “The overall economic development in Germany stalled in 2023 in the still crisis-ridden environment,” said Ruth Brand, president of the federal statistics office, according to a Google translation. 
    “Despite the recent declines, prices remained high at all levels of the economy. Added to this were unfavorable financing conditions due to rising interest rates and lower demand from home and abroad,” Brand added.
    German inflation ticked up by 3.8% year-on-year in December on a harmonized basis, the statistics office said on Jan. 4. The European Central Bank in December opted to hold rates unchanged for the second consecutive time, shifting its inflation outlook from “expected to remain too high for too long” to expectations that it will “decline gradually over the course of next year.”
    Germany’s manufacturing sector, excluding construction, fell by a sharp 2%, led by lower production in the energy supply sector. Weak domestic demand last year and “subdued global economic dynamics” also stifled foreign trade, despite a drop in prices. Imports fell by 1.8%, declining more sharply than exports and leading to a positive trade balance.

    Household consumption contracted by 0.8% on the year, adjusted for prices, while government expenses slimmed by 1.7%.

    The fourth quarter recorded a similar 0.3% drop compared with the July-September period. The office said that the German economy stagnated in the third quarter, implying the country has narrowly avoided a technical recession that is defined by two successive quarters of consecutive GDP declines.
    Early indicators do not signal a quick German economic recovery is in the cards, a German economy ministry report out Monday warned, according to Reuters.
    Capital Economics also expects Germany’s troubles are not yet over and forecasts no growth for the country in 2024.
    “The recessionary conditions which have been dragging on since the end of 2022 look set to continue this year,” Chief Europe Economist Andrew Kenningham said in a note. “Admittedly, the recent fall in inflation should provide some relief for households, but residential and business investment are likely to contract, construction is heading for a steep downturn and the government is tightening fiscal policy sharply. We forecast zero GDP growth in 2024.”
    Germany was haunted by its moniker as the “sick man” of Europe for the better part of last year, despite weathering the shocks of losing access to some sanctioned Russian energy supplies in the wake of Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. Analysts had predicted Germany would be the only major European economy to shrink last year.

    The German economy faced the throes of a deep budgetary crisis at the end of last year, after a constitutional court ruling over the national borrowing restrictions threatened a $17-billion-euro gap in the country’s 2024 spending plans.
    Enshrined in Germany’s constitution, the national debt brake restricts the federal deficit to 0.35% of GDP outside of emergencies and became a major bone of contention in national politics last year. The German government agreed to suspend the limit on borrowing, after the constitutional court blocked attempts to repurpose any leftover emergency funds initially assigned to address the Covid-19 pandemic.
    Weeks-long negotiations yielded a budget deal that retains debt restrictions into 2024, with the government expecting to save 17 billion euros ($18.6 billion) in its core budget by ending climate-damaging subsidies and implementing cost cutting, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s three-way coalition announced in mid December. More

  • 125 Shares119 Views

    in Economy

    Flush With Investment, New U.S. Factories Face a Familiar Challenge

    Worries are growing in Washington that a flood of Chinese products could put new American investments in clean energy and high-tech factories at risk.The Biden administration has begun pumping more than $2 trillion into U.S. factories and infrastructure, investing huge sums to try to strengthen American industry and fight climate change.But the effort is facing a familiar threat: a surge of low-priced products from China. That is drawing the attention of President Biden and his aides, who are considering new protectionist measures to make sure American industry can compete against Beijing.As U.S. factories spin up to produce electric vehicles, semiconductors and solar panels, China is flooding the market with similar goods, often at significantly lower prices than American competitors. A similar influx is also hitting the European market.American executives and officials argue that China’s actions violate global trade rules. The concerns are spurring new calls in America and Europe for higher tariffs on Chinese imports, potentially escalating what is already a contentious economic relationship between China and the West.The Chinese imports mirror a surge that undercut the Obama administration’s efforts to seed domestic solar manufacturing after the 2008 financial crisis and drove some American start-ups out of business. The administration retaliated with tariffs on solar equipment from China, sparking a dispute at the World Trade Organization.Some Biden officials are concerned that Chinese products could once again threaten the survival of U.S. factories at a moment when the government is spending huge sums to jump-start domestic manufacturing. Administration officials appear likely to raise tariffs on electric vehicles and other strategic goods from China, as part of a review of the levies former President Donald J. Trump imposed on China four years ago, according to people familiar with the matter. That review, which has been underway since Mr. Biden took office, could finally conclude in the next few months.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber?  More

  • 125 Shares179 Views

    in Economy

    Supreme Court to Hear Starbucks Bid to Overturn Labor Ruling

    The coffee chain has challenged a federal judge’s order to reinstate a group of union activists who were fired at a store in Memphis.The Supreme Court agreed on Friday to hear a case brought by Starbucks challenging a federal judge’s order to reinstate seven employees who were fired at a store in Memphis amid a union campaign there.Starbucks argued that the criteria for such intervention by judges in labor cases, which can also include measures like reopening shuttered stores, vary across regions of the country because federal appeals courts may adhere to different standards.A regional director for the National Labor Relations Board, the company’s opponent in the case, argued that the apparent differences in criteria among appeals courts were semantic rather than substantive, and that a single effective standard was already in place nationwide.The labor board had urged the Supreme Court to stay out of the case, whose outcome could affect union organizing across the country.The agency asks federal judges for temporary relief, like reinstatement of fired workers, because litigating charges of unfair labor practices can take years. The agency argues that retaliation against workers can have a chilling effect on organizing in the meantime, even if the workers ultimately win their case.In a statement on Friday, Starbucks said, “We are pleased the Supreme Court has decided to consider our request to level the playing field for all U.S. employers by ensuring that a single standard is applied as federal district courts.”The labor board declined to comment.The union organizing campaign at Starbucks began in the Buffalo area in 2021 and quickly spread to other states. The union, Workers United, represents workers at more than 370 Starbucks stores, out of roughly 9,600 company-owned stores in the United States.The labor board has issued dozens of complaints against the company based on hundreds of accusations of labor law violations, including threats and retaliation against workers who are seeking to unionize and a failure to bargain in good faith. This week, the agency issued a complaint accusing the company of unilaterally changing work hours and schedules in unionized stores around the country.The company has denied violating labor law and said in a statement that it contested the latest complaint and planned “to defend our lawful business decisions” before a judge.The case that led to the dispute before the Supreme Court involves seven workers who were fired in February 2022 after they let local journalists into a closed store to conduct interviews. Starbucks said the incident violated company rules; the workers and the union said the company did not enforce such rules against workers who were not involved in union organizing.The labor board found merit in the workers’ accusations and issued a complaint two months later. A federal judge granted the labor board’s request for an order reinstating the workers that August, and a federal appeals court upheld the order.“Starbucks is seeking a bailout for its illegal union-busting from Trump’s Supreme Court,” Workers United said in a statement on Friday. “There’s no doubt that Starbucks broke federal law by firing workers in Memphis for joining together in a union.”Starbucks said it was critical for the Supreme Court to wade into the case because the labor board was becoming more ambitious in asking judges to order remedies like reinstatement of fired workers.The labor board noted in its filing with the Supreme Court that it was bringing fewer injunctions overall than in some recent years — only 21 were authorized in 2022, down from more than 35 in 2014 and 2015.A Supreme Court decision could in principle raise the bar for judges to issue orders reinstating workers, effectively limiting the labor board’s ability to win temporary relief for workers during a union campaign.The case is not the only recent challenge to the labor board’s authority. After the board issued a complaint accusing the rocket company SpaceX of illegally firing eight employees for criticizing its chief executive, Elon Musk, the company filed a lawsuit this month arguing that the agency’s setup for adjudicating complaints is unconstitutional.The company said in its lawsuit that the agency’s structure violated its right to a trial by jury. More

  • 113 Shares99 Views

    in Economy

    Microsoft Tops Apple to Become Most Valuable Public Company

    The shift is indicative of the importance of new artificial intelligence technology to Silicon Valley and Wall Street investors.For more than a decade, Apple was the stock market’s undisputed king. It first overtook Exxon Mobil as the world’s most valuable public company in 2011 and held the title almost without interruption.But a transfer of power has begun.On Friday, Microsoft surpassed Apple, claiming the crown after its market value surged by more than $1 trillion over the past year. Microsoft finished the day at $2.89 trillion, higher than Apple’s $2.87 trillion, according to Bloomberg.The change is part of a reordering of the stock market that was set in motion by the advent of generative artificial intelligence. The technology, which can answer questions, create images and write code, has been heralded for its potential to disrupt businesses and create trillions of dollars in economic value.When Apple replaced Exxon, it ushered in an era of tech supremacy. The values of Apple, Amazon, Facebook, Microsoft and Google dwarfed former market leaders like Walmart, JPMorgan Chase and General Motors.The tech industry still dominates the top of the list, but the companies with the most momentum have put generative A.I. at the forefront of their future business plans. The combined value of Microsoft, Nvidia and Alphabet, Google’s parent company, increased by $2.5 trillion last year. Their performances outshined Apple, which posted a smaller share price increase in 2023.“It simply comes down to gen A.I.,” said Brad Reback, an analyst at the investment bank Stifel. Generative A.I. will have an impact on all of Microsoft’s businesses, including its largest, he said, while “Apple doesn’t have much of an A.I. story yet.”We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber?  More

  • 138 Shares119 Views

    in Economy

    Trump’s Dominance and Snowy Weather Put Iowa’s Caucus Economy on Ice

    Even before a snowstorm brought Des Moines to a near standstill on Friday, the city felt decidedly more subdued than it usually does around the Iowa caucuses: quiet restaurants, empty streets, bartenders with little to do.The numbers confirm it: The 2024 caucuses are expected to bring less than 40 percent of the direct economic impact to the capital that the 2020 contest provided — an estimated $4.2 million, down from $11.3 million four years ago. Direct economic impact measures what visitors do, like sleeping, driving, eating and drinking.It is a striking decline that reflects, among other things, diminished media engagement in a presidential race that is less competitive than in past years, when the state has been inundated by presidential hopefuls, their campaigns and teams of journalists in hot pursuit.“Media is way down,” said Greg Edwards, the chief executive of the Greater Des Moines Convention and Visitors Bureau, which provided the numbers. “The major networks aren’t sending their major anchors like they have in the past.”We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber?  More

  • 138 Shares199 Views

    in Economy

    Wholesale prices unexpectedly fall 0.1% in December in positive inflation sign

    The producer price index, a gauge of wholesale prices, fell 0.1% for the month and ended 2023 up 1% from a year ago, the Labor Department reported Friday.
    Excluding food and energy, core PPI was flat against the estimate for a 0.2% increase. Excluding food, energy and trade services, PPI also was up 0.2%, in line with the estimate.

    Wholesale prices unexpectedly declined in December, providing a positive signal for inflation, the Labor Department reported Friday.
    The producer price index fell 0.1% for the month and ended 2023 up 1% from a year ago, the Labor Department reported Friday. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been expecting a monthly gain of 0.1%. The index had surged 6.4% in 2022.

    Excluding food and energy, core PPI was flat against the estimate for a 0.2% increase. Excluding food, energy and trade services, PPI also was up 0.2%, in line with the estimate. For the full year, the final demand measure less food, energy and trade services rose 2.5% for all of 2023 after being up 4.7% in 2022.
    The PPI release comes a day after less encouraging news from the Labor Department, which reported Thursday that the prices consumers pay for goods and services rose 0.3% in December and were up 3.4% on the year. That was higher than Wall Street expectations and still a good deal away from the Fed’s 2% inflation target.
    However, PPI is generally considered a better leading index as it measures pipeline prices that companies get for intermediate goods and services.
    Markets initially reacted positively to the PPI release but turned lower through morning trading.
    “What inflation risks remain in the U.S. economy clearly cannot be sourced to any upward pressure in producers’ costs,” said Kurt Rankin, senior economist at PNC. “Whether surveying from producers’ intermediate or final demand perspective, there is little to no pricing pressure headed into the U.S. economy from the supply side entering 2024.”

    Prices for final demand goods declined 0.4% in December, the third straight month of decreases, according to the release. Diesel fuel prices tumbled 12.4%, even though gasoline increased 2.1%.
    On the services side, which Fed officials have been following more closely, prices held at unchanged for the third straight month. Prices in fields associated with financial advice rose 3.3%, while margins for machinery and vehicle wholesaling dipped 5.5%.
    PPI measures the prices that producers pay for goods and services, while CPI gauges what consumers pay in the marketplace. CPI also includes imports whereas PPI does not. PPI, however, covers a broader set of goods and services.
    Markets are convinced that waning inflation signs will push the Fed to cut interest rates starting in March, even with inflation above target.
    Traders in the fed funds futures market are pricing in about a 70% probability that the first-quarter percentage point cut will come at the March 19-20 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tracker. From there, markets expect another five rate cuts, taking the benchmark fed funds rate down to a target range of 3.75%-4%.
    However, various Fed officials in recent days have made statements that seem to counter the market’s aggressive view. Moreover, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon on Friday warned that heavy government deficit spending along with other factors could cause inflation to be stickier and rates to be higher than the market expects. More

  • 150 Shares129 Views

    in Economy

    How to Build a Wind Farm Off the Coast of New York

    The assembly line for South Fork begins miles away from the offshore site, at the State Pier in New London, Conn. The project — which is a joint venture between Eversource, a New England utility, and Orsted, a Danish company — has been a global operation. The biggest components, including turbine blades as long as […] More