Evelyn Reynolds

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    Private sector payrolls rose 113,000 in October, less than expected, ADP says

    ADP reported that companies added 113,000 workers for the month, higher than the 89,000 in September but below the estimate of 130,000.
    Education and health services led with 45,000 new jobs. Other notable gainers included trade, transportation and utilities, financial activities, and leisure and hospitality.

    Private sector payroll growth increased modestly in October but missed expectations, in a potential sign that the employment picture could be darkening, ADP reported Wednesday.
    The payrolls processing firm said that companies added 113,000 workers for the month, higher than the unrevised 89,000 in September but below the Dow Jones consensus estimate of 130,000.

    On wages, ADP said pay was up 5.7% from a year ago, the smallest annual gain since October 2021.
    From a sector standpoint, education and health services led with 45,000 new jobs. Other notable gainers included trade, transportation and utilities (35,000), financial activities (21,000), and leisure and hospitality (17,000).
    Almost all of the jobs came from services-providing industries, with goods producers contributing just 6,000 toward the total.
    Firms employing between 50 and 499 workers contributed the most, with a gain of 78,000.
    “No single industry dominated hiring this month, and big post-pandemic pay increases seem to be behindus,” said ADP’s chief economist, Nela Richardson. “In all, October’s numbers paint a well-rounded jobs picture. And while the labor market has slowed, it’s still enough to support strong consumer spending.”
    The release comes two days ahead of the Labor Department’s official nonfarm payrolls report, which is expected to show an increase of 170,000 and includes government jobs, unlike ADP. The counts from ADP and the government can differ substantially, as they did in September when the Labor Department reported a gain of 336,000, more than three times the ADP estimate. More

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    Biden to Travel to Minnesota to Highlight Rural Investments

    The president’s push to focus attention on the domestic economy comes as his administration has been dealing with events overseas after the terrorist attacks in Israel.The White House on Wednesday will announce more than $5 billion in funding for agriculture, broadband and clean energy needs in sparsely populated parts of the country as President Biden travels to Minnesota to kick off an administration-wide tour of rural communities.The president’s efforts to focus attention on the domestic economy ahead of next year’s campaign come after three weeks in which his administration has been seized by events overseas following the terrorist attacks in Israel and the state’s subsequent military action in Gaza.The trip will take place as Mr. Biden is urging Congress to quickly pass a $105 billion funding package that includes emergency aid to Israel and Ukraine, two conflicts he has described as threats to democracy around the globe.But the president and his aides are well aware that his hopes for a second term are likely to be determined closer to home. Rural voters like the ones he will address at a corn, soybean and hog farm south of Minneapolis are increasingly voting Republican. A recent poll showed that most voters had heard little or nothing about a health care and clean energy law that is the cornerstone of Mr. Biden’s economic agenda. And the president even faces a challenge within his own party, from Representative Dean Phillips of Minnesota, who announced his long-shot presidential bid last week.Karine Jean-Pierre, the White House press secretary, declined on Tuesday to speak about campaign issues, citing the Hatch Act, which limits political activity by federal officials, but said that Mr. Biden “loves Minnesota.” Administration officials have said Mr. Biden’s trip was planned before Mr. Phillips announced his candidacy.The White House has called the next two weeks of events the “Investing in Rural America Event Series.” It includes more than a dozen trips by Mr. Biden as well as cabinet secretaries and other senior administration officials. The White House said in a statement that the tour would highlight federal investments that “are bringing new revenue to farms, increased economic development in rural towns and communities, and more opportunity throughout the country.”Mr. Biden will be joined on Wednesday by Tom Vilsack, the agriculture secretary. Against the backdrop of a family farm that uses techniques to make crops more resilient to climate change, they will announce $1.7 billion for farmers nationwide to adopt so-called climate-smart agriculture practices.Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack will join President Biden in Minnesota and later travel to Indiana, Wyoming and Colorado.Haiyun Jiang for The New York TimesOther funding announcements include $1.1 billion in loans and grants to upgrade infrastructure in rural communities; $2 billion in investments as part of a program that helps rural governments work more closely with federal agencies on economic development projects; $274 million to expand high-speed internet infrastructure; and $145 million to expand access to wind, solar and other renewable energy, according to a White House fact sheet.“Young people in rural communities shouldn’t have to leave home to find opportunity,” Neera Tanden, director of the White House Domestic Policy Council, said Tuesday on a call with reporters.She said federal investments were creating “a pathway for the next generation to keep their roots in rural America.”Gov. Tim Walz of Minnesota, a Democrat, said he expected Mr. Biden to face serious headwinds in rural communities, in large part because of inflation levels.“It is a little challenging, there’s no denying, when prices go up,” Mr. Walz said. “The politics have gotten a little angrier. I think folks are feeling a little behind.”But Mr. Walz also praised Mr. Biden for spending time in rural communities. “Democrats need to show up,” he said.Kenan Fikri, the director of research at the Economic Innovation Group, a Washington think tank, said the Biden administration had made sizable investments over the past two and a half years in agriculture, broadband and other rural priorities.“The administration has a lot to show for its economic development efforts in rural communities,” he said, but “whether voters will credit Biden for a strong economic performance is another question.”Later in the week Mr. Vilsack will travel to Indiana, Wyoming and Colorado to speak with agricultural leaders and discuss land conservation. Deb Haaland, the interior secretary, will go to her home state of New Mexico to highlight water infrastructure investments.Energy Secretary Jennifer M. Granholm will be in Arizona to talk about the electricity grid and renewable energy investment in the rural Southwest.The veterans affairs secretary, Denis McDonough, plans to visit Iowa to discuss improving access to medical care for veterans in rural areas. Isabel Guzman, who leads the Small Business Administration, will travel to Georgia to talk about loans for rural small businesses.Miguel A. Cardona, the education secretary, will go to New Hampshire to promote how community colleges help students from rural areas. Xavier Becerra, the secretary of health and human services, will be in North Carolina to talk about health care access in rural areas. More

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    Drought Saps the Panama Canal, Disrupting Global Trade

    For over a century, the Panama Canal has provided a convenient way for ships to move between the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, helping to speed up international trade.But a drought has left the canal without enough water, which is used to raise and lower ships, forcing officials to slash the number of vessels they allow through. That has created expensive headaches for shipping companies and raised difficult questions about water use in Panama. The passage of one ship is estimated to consume as much water as half a million Panamanians use in one day.“This is the worst we have seen in terms of disruption,” said Oystein Kalleklev, the chief executive of Avance Gas, which transports propane from the United States to Asia.The problems at the Panama Canal, an engineering marvel that opened in 1914 and handles an estimated 5 percent of seaborne trade, is the latest example of how crucial parts of global supply chains can suddenly seize up. In 2021, one of the largest container ships ever built got stuck for days in the Suez Canal, choking off trade. And the huge demand for goods like surgical masks, home appliances and garden equipment during the pandemic strained supply chains to their breaking point.Before the water problems, the canal handled some 38 ships a day. In July the authorities cut that to 32 vessels.Fewer passages could deprive Panama of tens of millions of dollars in revenue, push up the cost of shipping and increase greenhouse gas emissions when ships travel longer routes.In Panama, a lack of water has hampered canal operations in recent years, and some shipping experts say vessels may soon have to avoid the canal altogether if the problem gets worse. Fewer passages could deprive Panama’s government of tens of millions of dollars in annual revenue, push up the cost of shipping and increase greenhouse gas emissions when ships travel longer routes.Though Panama has an equatorial climate that makes it one of the wettest countries, rainfall there has been 30 percent below average this year, causing water levels to plunge in the lakes that feed the canal and its mighty locks. The immediate cause is the El Niño climate phenomenon, which initially causes hotter and drier weather in Panama, but scientists believe that climate change may be prolonging dry spells and raising temperatures in the region.Before the water problems, as many as 38 ships a day moved through the canal, which was built by the United States and remained under its control until 2000. The canal authority in July cut the average to 32 vessels, and later announced that the number would drop to 31 on Nov. 1. Further reductions could come if water levels remain low. The canal authority is also limiting how far a ship’s hull can go below the water, known as its draft, which significantly reduces the weight it can carry.Container ships, which transport finished consumer goods, typically reserve passage well in advance, and have not faced long delays. But ships carrying bulk commodities generally don’t book passage.Tree trunks are visible due to low levels of water. The drought also presents tough choices for Panama’s leaders, who must balance the water needs of the canal with those of residents.Vessels waiting to cross the Panama Canal. The passage of one ship is estimated to consume as much water as half a million Panamanians use in one day.This presents bulk shipping companies with an expensive calculus: They can risk waiting for days, pay a big fee to jump the line or avoid the canal entirely by taking a longer route.Mr. Kalleklev, the shipping executive, said his company decided in August to pay $400,000 in a special auction to move a ship ahead in the queue, roughly doubling the total cost of using the canal. Other companies have paid over $2 million, a cost they will sometimes bear to ensure ships don’t miss their next assignment. A portion of these extra costs will be passed on to consumers, already pummeled by inflation.The pain, however, has been limited because the U.S. economy is not running very hot and demand for imported goods is relatively muted.“If this was a year ago, when we still had record high freight rates and consumers still spending a lot on containerized goods from the Far East, then you would see more drama than you have now,” said Peter Sand, chief analyst at Xeneta, a shipping market analytics company.But traffic through the canal is likely to remain at lower levels in the coming months. Reducing passages helps conserve water, because huge amounts are used up every time a ship goes through the locks as it travels the 40 miles across Panama.The drought also presents tough choices for Panama’s leaders, who must balance the water needs of the canal with those of residents, over half of whom rely on the same sources of water that feed the canal.The canal’s board recently proposed building a new reservoir in the Indio River to bolster the water supply and increase traffic through the canal, which generates over 6 percent of Panama’s gross domestic product. Under the plan, the new water supply could allow for an additional 12 to 15 passages daily.For over a century, the Panama Canal has provided a convenient way for ships to move between the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans.The canal’s board recently proposed building a new reservoir in the Indio River to bolster the water supply and increase traffic through the canal.“In optimal terms, the canal can handle 38 transits per day, so 12 to 15 is a lot,” said Rodrigo Noriega, a lawyer and a columnist for Panama’s La Prensa newspaper.Building the reservoir is expected to cost nearly $900 million, and the canal authority could start accepting bids from contractors toward the middle of next year with construction starting early in 2025. But that timeline could well be delayed; the construction of larger locks was completed two years late, in 2016, and that project was marred by cost disputes.The new reservoir would also involve acquiring land that is protected by a 2006 law, and displace at least some of its inhabitants. Mr. Noriega said he expected Panama’s legislature to pass a law that would lift the ban on acquiring land. But he and others note that new water sources could also be built in other places.Without a new water source, the canal could lose significant amounts of business. Other ocean routes are, of course, longer and more expensive, but they are less likely to have unpredictable delays. One alternative is to transport goods between Asia and United States through the Suez Canal to the East Coast and Gulf Coast. Another is to ship goods from Asia to the West Coast ports — and then transport them overland by train or truck.“In theory, something that offers a cheaper, shorter route should always be in favor, but it’s the uncertainty that can be a killer,” said Chris Rogers, head of supply chain research at S&P Global Market Intelligence.Protracted disruptions at the canal could stoke interest in building land routes in Mexico, Colombia and other countries that have coastlines on both oceans, said Richard Morales, a political economist who is running as an independent candidate for vice president in an election next year.The efforts to secure new water supplies could be a race against climate change.Because interest in building a canal dates to the 19th century, Panama has rainfall records going back some 140 years. That gives scientists more confidence when concluding that a weather change is a permanent shift and not merely random, said Steven Paton, a director of the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute’s Physical Monitoring Program on an island in Lake Gatun, which makes up a large part of the canal and supplies most of its water.He said that while scientists were unsure about climate change’s impact on El Niño, two of the driest El Niño periods of the last 140 years had occurred in the last quarter-century, and that the current one could be the third.“It doesn’t say that this is climate change,” Mr. Paton said, “but it does say that this is wholly consistent with almost all of the climate change models.”Sol Lauría More

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    Here’s everything to expect from the Fed’s policy announcement Wednesday

    There’s virtually no chance policymakers will make a move either way on interest rates when the Fed concludes its two-day meeting Wednesday.
    What investors will watch, instead, are the signals that come from Chair Jerome Powell and the rest of the Federal Open Market Committee about where they’re leaning for the future.

    US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell holds a press conference in Washington, DC, on September 20, 2023. 
    Mandel Ngan | AFP | Getty Images

    The Federal Reserve meeting will most likely conclude Wednesday with the central bank not doing a whole lot of anything — just the way the market wants things for now.
    There’s virtually no chance policymakers will make a move either way on interest rates. Recent data has bought Fed officials time to decide their next step. Inflation, while decelerating, is still too high, and the economy is growing at a solid pace despite the highest benchmark interest rates since the early part of the century.

    What investors will watch, instead, are the signals that come from Chair Jerome Powell and the rest of the Federal Open Market Committee about where they’re leaning for the future.
    “There’s no likelihood that the Fed will do anything here. It wouldn’t make sense at this meeting. But, what is the messaging?” said Josh Emanuel, chief investment strategist at Wilshire. “My sense is that Powell is going to want to be very measured and careful about sounding too hawkish. He’s managed to thread the needle here very well.”
    Despite the chair’s efforts to walk a line between holding tough against inflation while being attuned to the impact higher interest rates have on the economy, markets have been sensitive.
    Though looking stronger this week, stocks have been reeling through the past two months, while Treasury yields have been hovering around 16-year highs — dating back to the early days of the financial crisis.
    With much of those fears have centered around how much higher rates could go, and how long the Fed will keep them elevated, Powell’s post-meeting news conference, as well as the FOMC statement, could move markets.

    “The last thing Powell wants to do here is make a mistake and come across as too hawkish, because the implication of that as you could see a risk-off environment. You’ve already started to see a little bit of a technical breakdown in equities,” Emmanuel said. “And you have a market that is very, very short Treasurys.”

    Heavy news cycle

    In fact, markets will have a dual focus Wednesday. Earlier in the day, the Treasury Department will provide more information on its funding needs in the near future, in what could be a pivotal moment for investors with a keen focus on how the government manages its $33.7 trillion debt. Also on tap Wednesday: the Labor Department’s report on job openings in September, and ADP’s estimate on private payroll growth.
    That all happens two days before the Labor Department issues its nonfarm payrolls report for October, and comes on the heels of a report showing better-than-expected economic growth in the third quarter but a likely slowdown ahead.
    “The Fed will likely hold rates steady despite accelerating GDP and employment,” Bank of America credit strategists said in a client note. “The Fed has adopted a more cautious tone due to the [Treasury] long-end rate rise, arguing rates markets have done some of its tightening. At the press conference, Chair Powell will likely reiterate that the Fed is ‘proceeding carefully.'”
    The bank added that it expects Powell’s post-meeting statement so “largely mirror” remarks he made in New York earlier in October. In that speech, Powell said he considered inflation to be still too high and cautioned that the Fed, while being able to move carefully, was attuned to possible upside risk to inflation.

    Options ahead

    David Doyle, head of economics at Macquarie Asset Management, said Powell’s comments “may be more market moving” than the FOMC statement, adding that markets will be watching for the chairman’s views on the movement in Treasury yields. He also noted that the Fed by now will have seen the quarterly senior loan officer survey that gauges how tight lending conditions are at banks.
    For its part, the market is pricing zero chance of a rate hike at this meeting and just a 29% probability of an increase in December, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch measure of futures pricing. Traders see the first cut possibly coming in June.
    However, some market participants think the Fed’s hands could be forced into another hike as inflation hangs tough.
    The Fed likely “will not signal that it is done tightening policy just yet,” said Matthew Ryan, head of market strategy at Ebury.
    “We still see another U.S. rate increase as unlikely in the current cycle,” he said. “As a compromise, we think that the Fed will stress that rate cuts are not on the cards anytime soon, with easing to begin no sooner than the second half of 2024.” More

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    A Key Measure of Wages Grew at a Moderate Pace This Summer

    The Employment Cost Index, which Federal Reserve officials watch closely as a gauge of pay trends, has come down since last year.A measure of pay and benefits that officials at the Federal Reserve have been watching closely as they try to gauge the heat of the labor market grew at a moderate pace over the summer.The Employment Cost Index, a quarterly measure from the Labor Department that tracks changes in wages and benefits, climbed 1.1 percent in the third quarter of 2023 versus the prior three months. That was slightly faster than the 1 percent that economists expected and up from the previous 1 percent reading.That pace of growth does mark a deceleration from a series of rapid quarterly gains in 2022. And on an annual basis, wage gains continue to slow: The employment cost measure rose by 4.3 percent on a yearly basis, down from the 4.5 percent reading in the previous report.Still, the index averaged 2.2 percent yearly gains in the decade leading up to the pandemic, underscoring that today’s pace remains unusually quick. And it is notable that wage gains continue to come in strong at a time when economists had expected them to be returning to a more normal pace. The trend could present a challenge for officials at the Federal Reserve.Rapid wage gains are good news for households, but they can spell trouble for Fed policymakers. Central bankers often worry that it will be hard to fully snuff out inflation if pay gains are climbing quickly. Companies that are paying workers higher wages are likely to try to charge more to cover their costs.Fed officials are meeting this week to discuss what to do next with interest rates, and are widely expected to hold borrowing costs steady at the conclusion of their two-day meeting on Wednesday. Economists did not expect that to change in the wake of Tuesday’s wage data.“It’s more about waiting for the labor market to continue to normalize,” said Oscar Muñoz, chief U.S. macro strategist at TD Securities. “It is taking longer, but I think that the Fed can be patient.”Fed officials have already raised interest rates to a range of 5.25 to 5.5 percent, up from near-zero in March 2022, in their bid to slow inflation.Those higher rates make it more expensive to borrow money to buy a house, purchase a car or expand a business. As companies hire less voraciously and demand wanes, wage growth should slow and companies should find it more difficult to raise prices without losing customers. That chain reaction is expected to put a lid on inflation.But the labor market’s cool-down has been an unexpectedly bumpy one. Job gains have slowed somewhat, but they remain much faster than many economists had expected after so much Fed action.That has left Fed officials closely watching wages.If pay growth continues to calm even as companies hire at a solid clip, it would suggest that the continued job gains are being driven by an improving supply of applicants — and that the labor market is still slowly coming back into balance.The logic is simple: If the job market were running hot, companies would be paying more and more as they tried to poach needed employees from one another. That would keep pay gains climbing swiftly. If it is cooling toward a more normal level of tightness, economists would expect wage gains to pull back.So far, policymakers have been interpreting labor market data to mean that balance is in fact returning. That’s partly because another closely watched measure of wage growth, the average hourly earnings index, has been showing steady moderation.That gauge is useful because it comes out every month, but it is also susceptible to data quirks. It tends to move around as the composition of the work force shifts. If a lot of low-wage workers gain jobs, for instance, the hourly earnings measure can drift lower.Given that, Fed officials closely monitor the Employment Cost Index, which avoids some of the data pitfalls that afflict other wage measures.“Wage growth is slowing down, but not as much as other data sources have suggested,” Cory Stahle, economist at Indeed Hiring Lab, wrote in an analysis after the report. He added that “pay growth will likely keep slowing going forward, but the labor market continues to display notable resilience.” More

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    U.A.W. Strike Gains Could Reverberate Far Beyond Autos

    Experts said the union’s new contracts could set precedents that give labor advantages when bargaining contracts and organizing workers.Laying out a tentative contract agreement to end a six-week wave of walkouts at Ford Motor, the United Automobile Workers president made an unusual pitch to other labor unions.“We invite unions around the country to align your contract expirations with our own,” the U.A.W. leader, Shawn Fain, said Sunday night.“If we’re going to truly take on the billionaire class and rebuild the economy so that it starts to work for the benefit of the many and not the few,” Mr. Fain added, “then it’s important that we not only strike, but that we strike together.”While it remains to be seen whether other unions follow the U.A.W.’s lead, Mr. Fain’s invitation highlights the sweeping ambition of the union’s strategy during the recent strike, the first to target all three Detroit automakers simultaneously.Beyond seeking the largest wage and benefit increases in decades — and a reversal of the concessions the union made during the companies’ downturn, such as lower wage tiers for newer workers — Mr. Fain repeatedly spoke of fighting for “the entire working class.”Labor experts said the proposals that union negotiators agreed to with Ford, General Motors and Stellantis, the parent of Jeep, Ram and Chrysler, had produced gains that could in fact reverberate well beyond the workers that the union represented.“It is a historic and transformative victory by the U.A.W.,” said Nelson Lichtenstein, a labor historian at the University of California, Santa Barbara.Dr. Lichtenstein said that winning substantial gains through a strike in a critical industry demonstrated the benefits of work stoppages after decades in which workers had been taught to regard strikes warily.“Fain says: ‘Hey, strikes work, solidarity works; we’re more unified now than before the strike,’” he added. “I think that’s a powerful argument unions can take elsewhere.”To make the economy “work for the benefit of the many and not the few,” Shawn Fain, the U.A.W. president said, “then it’s important that we not only strike, but that we strike together.”Brittany Greeson for The New York TimesEven before the strike ended, unions at other companies appeared to be doing just that.In an interview in late September, David Pryzbylski, a lawyer who represents employers, said union officials in two separate contract negotiations had invoked the U.A.W. when discussing the possibility of a strike. “Outside the U.A.W., it’s putting wind in their sails,” Mr. Pryzbylski said. “They may be blustering, but I am seeing it already trickle down.”A recent report by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce raised concerns that an emboldened labor movement was increasing strike activity and “causing collateral damage to a host of local businesses and communities” by harming the economic ecosystem that depended on automakers and other employers.The element of strategy that the U.A.W. brought to its strike may also prove instructive to other workers and unions. Rather than ask all employees to strike at once, the union started small, with one key plant at each of the Big Three, then ramped up as it sought to bring additional pressure. The U.A.W. refrained from expanding the strike when it felt a company was bargaining productively, and it expanded to a highly valuable plant when it felt a company was dragging its feet — in both cases, to create an incentive for the companies to engage with the union.The approach may not translate perfectly to other industries, such as retail and hospitality, that are harder to disrupt with the loss of a small number of locations. But Peter Olney, a former organizing director with the International Longshore and Warehouse Union, said the strategy was more widely applicable than it might appear at first glance.He cited the possibility of organizing and striking at coffee bean roasting plants and distribution centers for a company like Starbucks, where workers at hundreds of retail stores in the United States have organized over the past few years. “They have 9,000 locations, there’s a lot of redundancy and replication,” Mr. Olney said, referring to company-owned stores in the United States. “But there are some choke points in that system, too.”And it is difficult for service-sector industries to send operations offshore in response to labor unrest, because proximity to customers is critical. By contrast, the U.A.W. may have to contend with the risk that companies shift production to Mexico as labor costs increase.“That’s where the international solidarity aspect of it comes in — the need to build up a cross-border network with Mexico,” Mr. Olney said. Last year, workers at a large G.M. plant in the country voted out a union accused of colluding with management in favor of an independent union.In some ways, the recent U.A.W. effort builds on the gains made by unions involved in other high-profile standoffs. To resolve a nearly five-month strike with Hollywood writers in September, major studios agreed to a set of restrictions on the use of artificial intelligence. The agreement was a break with employers’ typical insistence that management should have control over technology and investment decisions.In its new contract with the union, Ford Motor agreed to let current U.A.W. members transfer to battery and electric vehicles plants the company was building in Michigan and Tennessee.Nic Antaya for The New York TimesThe tentative U.A.W. contracts award the union more influence over such decision-making as well — for example, by allowing workers to strike against the entire company over the threat of a plant shutdown before their contract has expired. The union also successfully pressed Stellantis to reopen an Illinois plant that the company had closed.Mr. Pryzbylski, the management-side lawyer, said that while such strike provisions and plant reopenings are not unheard of, they are uncommon.Dr. Lichtenstein said securing these gains in such a high-profile context could prompt employees at other companies to demand a say in decisions that their employers had typically characterized as management prerogatives. “It restores a kind of social and political character to investment decisions,” he said. “It’s something the left has wanted for over a century.”In other cases, the U.A.W. managed to extract concessions at plants where it doesn’t yet represent workers — another unusual win that could be mimicked by fellow unions. Ford agreed that U.A.W. members would be allowed to transfer into battery and electric vehicles plants under construction in Michigan and Tennessee, and that these plants would fall under the union’s national contract if the workers unionized there. According to the U.A.W., that would happen without the need to hold a union election at either site.Madeline Janis, co-executive director of Jobs to Move America, a group that seeks to create good jobs in clean technology industries, called these arrangements a “huge historic, unprecedented deal” for helping to ensure that the E.V. transition benefited workers.U.A.W. officials say that adding new members is critical to the union’s survival, and that the Big Three contracts will provide a major boost to these efforts because organizers can point to large concrete benefits of unionizing.“We’re not going to win a contract victory this big in the future if we’re not able to start organizing, especially in the E.V. sector,” said Mike Miller, a U.A.W. regional director in the Western United States. “It has to involve Tesla, Volkswagen and Hyundai.”But some experts said the momentum of the recent contracts could help organizing campaigns that were even further afield. “It’s not just personal vehicle manufacturing — it’s the fleets of delivery vans, big electric buses and trains,” said Erica Smiley, executive director of Jobs With Justice, which helps workers seeking to unionize and bargain collectively.Ms. Smiley noted that many of these companies, just like electric vehicle manufacturers, had received public subsidies, creating an opportunity for organizers to appeal to politicians for help raising pay and improving benefits so that they more closely resembled what the U.A.W. just won.“The administration is investing in these industries,” she added. “The question is how to use this to raise the floor.” More

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    What to Watch for as the Federal Reserve Meets This Week

    Central bankers are expected to leave interest rates steady at a 22-year high of 5.25 to 5.5 percent. Investors are looking for hints at what’s next.Federal Reserve officials are widely expected to leave interest rates steady at the conclusion of their two-day meeting on Wednesday. But investors and economists will watch for any hint about whether rates are likely to stay that way — or whether central bankers still think they might need to increase them again in the coming months.Officials will release a statement announcing their policy decision at 2 p.m., followed by a news conference with Jerome H. Powell, the Fed chair, at 2:30 p.m. Both will offer policymakers a chance to signal what they think might come next for interest rates and the economy.Central bankers have already raised interest rates to a range of 5.25 to 5.5 percent in a push to tame inflation. That rate setting is up from near-zero as recently as early 2022, and is the highest level in 22 years.Higher borrowing costs are meant to make it more expensive to buy a home, purchase a car or expand a business using a loan. By tapping the brakes on demand and hiring, that slows the broader economy, which can help to put a lid on price increases.Fed officials have widely signaled that they are close to the point where they no longer need to raise interest rates — simply leaving them around this level will cool the economy and help drive inflation back down to their 2 percent goal over time. The question now is twofold: Will policymakers feel it necessary to make one more quarter-point interest-rate move later this year or early next? And once they decide that rates are high enough, how long will they leave them elevated?Here’s what to watch for on Wednesday.Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve chair, said in that “at the margin” the recent tightening in financial conditions could reduce the need for further tightening, “though that remains to be seen.”Michelle V. Agins/The New York TimesThe Fed’s language will be in focus.Central bankers will first release their standard monetary policy statement, and markets will carefully watch to see if officials make any changes that suggest they are done raising interest rates.Last time, officials said that “in determining the extent of additional policy firming that may be appropriate,” they would contemplate incoming economic data. If they softened that language to make further policy moves sound less likely, it would be notable.But investors may not find much else to parse in this release. Fed officials will not release fresh quarterly economic projections again until December. Given that, traders will have to watch Mr. Powell’s news conference for more details about what comes next.Recent market moves could be critical.As of the Fed’s latest economic forecasts in September, officials still thought that one more rate increase in 2023 might be appropriate.But something critical has changed in the intervening weeks.Long-term interest rates have climbed notably in markets since the Fed gathered on Sept. 19-20. While central bankers directly set short-term interest rates, longer-term borrowing costs often adjust only at a delay — and the recent jump is making everything from mortgages to business loans much more expensive.That could help slow the economy, doing some of the Fed’s work for it. And some economists think in light of that, central bankers will no longer see a need for another rate increase.Mr. Powell, during a question-and-answer session on Oct. 19, said that “at the margin” the recent tightening in financial conditions could reduce the need for further tightening, “though that remains to be seen.”“I took it to mean that perhaps there isn’t as much urgency to raise interest rates further,” said Blerina Uruci, chief U.S. economist at T. Rowe Price. She said that she didn’t expect officials to rule out another move, but “they need to manage a broad range of risks right now.”If consumer spending remains so strong that companies feel they can raise prices without scaring away customers, it could make it tough to fully wrestle inflation back down to 2 percent.Amir Hamja/The New York TimesStrong consumer spending may keep officials alert.While the Fed is dealing with the possibility that higher market-based interest rates will weigh on the economy, they are also confronting another potential challenge: Economic data have remained surprisingly strong in recent months.On one level, this is good news. Consumers are shopping and companies are hiring at a rapid clip in spite of higher interest rates, and that resilience has come at a time when inflation has moderated substantially. The Fed’s favorite inflation gauge has slowed to 3.4 percent, down from 7.1 percent at its peak in summer 2022.But if consumer spending remains so strong that companies feel they can raise prices without scaring away customers, that could make it tough to fully wrestle inflation back down to 2 percent.That’s why policymakers at the Fed are watching the continued strength closely — and trying to decide whether it suggests that further interest rate increases are needed.Timing is a big question.Officials may decide that they simply need more time to watch economic trends play out.Holding off on further rate moves in November — and possibly beyond — could give officials a chance to see if growth and consumer spending slow in the way companies have been warning they could.Plus, keeping rates on pause will give officials more time to see how looming geopolitical risks shape up. The war between Israel and Hamas could affect the economy in hard-to-predict ways. If it escalates into a regional war, it could shake consumer confidence. But a wider conflict could also cause oil prices to pop, pushing up inflation.At the same time, officials won’t want to fully rule out a future move at a time when market rates could fall, risks could fade and growth could remain quick.“Maintaining optionality makes a lot of sense in the current context,” said Matthew Luzzetti, chief U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank.Wall Street is divided over what will come next. Investors see about a one-in-four chance of a rate move at the Fed’s final 2023 meeting, which takes place on Dec. 13. They see a slightly higher — but far from guaranteed — chance of a move in early 2024.“Nobody is feeling a high degree of confidence about the economic outlook right now,” Ms. Uruci said. More

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    U.A.W. Strikes Near an End After G.M. Reaches Tentative Deal

    Tentative accords at Ford Motor, General Motors and Stellantis are the most generous in decades, raising costs as the industry shifts to electric vehicles.A six-week wave of strikes that hobbled the three largest U.S. automakers has resulted in tentative contract agreements that would give workers their biggest pay raises in decades while avoiding a protracted work stoppage that could have damaged the economy.On Monday, General Motors and the United Automobile Workers reached a deal that mirrored agreements the union had reached in recent days with Ford Motor and Stellantis, the parent company of Ram, Jeep and Chrysler. The terms will be costly for the automakers as they undertake a switch to electric vehicles, while setting the stage for labor strife and demands for higher pay at nonunion automakers like Tesla and Toyota.The tentative agreements, which still require ratification by union members, also appeared to be a win for President Biden, who had risked political capital by picketing with striking workers at a G.M. facility in Michigan last month.“They have reached a historic agreement,” Mr. Biden said Monday after speaking with Shawn Fain, the U.A.W. president. The deals, the president said, “reward autoworkers who gave up much to keep the industry working and going during the global financial crisis more than a decade ago.”The strike stretched longer than White House officials would have liked, but was resolved before causing significant shortages of new cars and trucks that might have frustrated voters already angry about inflation.“The near-term impact of this strike will be relatively minor,” said Karl Brauer, executive analyst at iSeeCars.com, an online auto sales site. We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.We are confirming your access to this article, this will take just a moment. However, if you are using Reader mode please log in, subscribe, or exit Reader mode since we are unable to verify access in that state.Confirming article access.If you are a subscriber, please  More