Evelyn Reynolds

Initial jobless claims totaled a seasonally adjusted 233,000 for the week, a decline of 17,000 and lower than the Dow Jones estimate for 240,000.
Stock market futures, which had been negative earlier, turned sharply positive after the release

An employment sign is seen on the window of a department store on August 02, 2024 in New York City. 
Michael M. Santiago | Getty Images News | Getty Images

Initial claims for unemployment insurance totaled less than expected last week, countering other signs that the labor market is weakening.
First-time filings for jobless benefits came to a seasonally adjusted 233,000 for the week, a decline of 17,000 from the previous week’s upwardly revised level and lower than the Dow Jones estimate for 240,000, the Labor Department said Thursday.

The report comes with Wall Street on edge amid signs that job growth is slowing and even signaling a potential recession on the horizon. Stock market futures, which had been negative earlier, turned sharply positive following the 8:30 a.m. ET release while Treasury yields held higher.
While the top-line number helped allay some fears, the level of continuing claims, which run a week behind, edged up to 1.875 million, the highest since Nov. 27, 2021.
Jobless claims have been trending higher for much of the year, though still remain relatively tame. The recent uptick has been attributed to disruptions from Hurricane Beryl as well as summer shutdowns at auto plants.
The four-week average rose to 240,750, the highest in nearly a year. In the previous week, claims had jumped by 14,000, adding to worries that layoffs are on the rise.
“Claims pulled back in the latest week, adding to evidence that weather and seasonal auto plant shutdowns were responsible for the previous week’s dramatic rise,” said Robert Frick, corporate economist at Navy Federal Credit Union. “If you’re looking for additional weakness in the labor market, you’ll need to find it somewhere else.”

Concerns escalated over the state of the labor market following last Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report, which showed an increase of just 114,000 in July. At the same time, the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, triggering the so-called Sahm Rule that gauges recessions by measuring changes in the jobless rate.
Markets have been highly volatile since then, with a huge three-day sell-off starting last Thursday that ignited worries of deeper troubles in the U.S. economy.
In turn, traders expect the Federal Reserve to begin cutting interest rates in September, with some even calling for an emergency intrameeting reduction to counter the recent weakness. Markets are assigning a strong probability of a half percentage point reduction for the first move and a full percentage point cut by the end of the year, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tracker of fed funds futures contracts.

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The most recent and costliest of Mr. Trump’s ideas would end income taxes on Social Security benefits.First it was a tax cut for hotel and restaurant workers in Nevada, a swing state where Donald J. Trump proposed exempting tips from taxes. Then, in front of powerful chief executives gathered in Washington, Mr. Trump floated cutting the corporate tax rate, helping to ease concerns in the business community about his candidacy.Now Mr. Trump is calling for an end to taxing Social Security benefits, which could be a boon for retirees, one of the most politically important groups in the United States.Repeatedly during the campaign, Mr. Trump and Republicans have embraced new, sometimes novel tax cuts in an attempt to shore up support with major constituencies. In a series of social-media posts, at political rallies, and without formal policy proposals, Mr. Trump has casually suggested reducing federal revenue by trillions of dollars.While policy experts have taken issue with the ideas, Mr. Trump’s pronouncements have real political appeal, at times putting Democrats on their back foot. Nevada’s two Democratic senators and its powerful culinary union have endorsed ending taxes on tips. The AARP supports tax relief for seniors receiving Social Security benefits, though it has not taken a position on Mr. Trump’s proposal.“You do have to scratch your head a little bit when someone’s going around offering free lunches everywhere,” said Jesse Lee, a Democratic consultant and former Biden White House official. “We’re all for people having their lunch, but we have to raise taxes on the wealthy to pay for it.”The most recent and most expensive of Mr. Trump’s plans is ending income taxes on Social Security benefits, which could cost the federal government as much as $1.8 trillion in revenue over a decade, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. That would burn through the program’s financial reserves more quickly and hasten the moment when the government is no longer able to pay out Social Security benefits in full under current law.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

U.S. inventories “are not at a level that is worrisome or that seems to indicate a significant slowdown right in the offing,” Maersk CEO Vincent Clerc told CNBC, as fears of a recession in the world’s largest economy mount.
Chinese exports have helped drive overall container demand in the most recent quarter, Clerc said.
Maersk on Wednesday reported a decline in year-on-year underlying profit to $623 million from $1.346 billion in the second quarter, and a dip in revenue to $12.77 billion from $12.99 billion.

Shipping giant Maersk, considered a barometer for global trade, is not seeing signs of a U.S. recession as freight demand remains robust, the company’s chief executive said Wednesday.
“We’ve seen in the last couple of years, actually, [the shipping container] market remaining surprisingly resilient to all the fear of recessions that there has been,” Vincent Clerc told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” Wednesday, adding that container demand was generally a good indicator of underlying macroeconomic strength.

U.S. inventories — goods being stored before delivery or processing — “are higher than they were at the beginning of the year, but they are not at a level that is worrisome or that seems to indicate a significant slowdown right in the offing,” Clerc said, despite noting some unpredictability in numbers for companies replenishing stocks.
“We look also at purchase orders from a lot of retailers and consumer brands that need to import into the U.S. for the coming month of demand, and it seems still to be pretty robust … at least the data and the indicators that we’re having seem to point toward still some good level of confidence that the current consumption levels in the U.S. will continue.”
The last week has seen a sudden escalation in worries about a recession in the world’s biggest economy, the U.S., following a set of weaker-than-expected jobs data which has divided economists and market participants.
U.S. retail trade inventories — a measure of unwanted build — in May were up 5.33% from a year ago at $793.86 billion, according to the most recent release from the U.S. Census Bureau.
A report released by leasing platform Container xChange on Wednesday said indicators suggest inventories are higher than demand, meaning a less “prosperous time” in the coming months for container traders, the logistics market and retailers who stockpiled.

Maersk’s Clerc said the company had been surprised by the resilience of container volumes across the last few years, and said it expected that to continue in the coming quarters — with no indication the global economy is heading toward recessionary territory.
Chinese exports have been the engine behind strong container volumes as the global share of containers originating in or heading for China has increased, he continued.
In 2022, the Danish firm had a markedly more gloomy outlook, warning of a drag on demand from inflation, the threat of a global recession, the European energy crisis and the war in Ukraine.
A combination of those factors drove down freight rates in 2023, sending Maersk’s profits tumbling.
That trend was partially reversed this year amid soaring geopolitical tensions in the Red Sea, which led shipping firms to divert trade routes around the southern coast of Africa — extending journey times and taking capacity out of the global system.

Red Sea to cause further inflation

Clerc told CNBC Wednesday he expected Red Sea diversions to continue at least until the end of the year.
“That, of course, requires more capacity, more ships in order to move global trade around the world, and that has created some shortages here in the second quarter and in the third quarter that we’re dealing with at the moment,” he said.
“That means, in the short term, higher cost, and we have had to take on significant cost as a result of this, both in terms of having needing more ships and needing also more containers to do the job that is expected of us.”
If the situation persists, Maersk will see “significant inflation” in its cost base which it will need to pass on to customers, he continued, with Asia to Europe or U.S. east coast routes costing between 20% and 30% more.
The impact of capacity constraints in the short term has been positive for the Danish shipping giant’s margins and led to three profit upgrades in recent months, Clerc added.
Maersk on Wednesday reported a decline in year-on-year underlying profit to $623 million from $1.346 billion in the second quarter, and a dip in revenue to $12.77 billion from $12.99 billion.
While weaker on an annual basis, the company said ocean freight margins were “significantly better” than in the first quarter of 2024 and fourth quarter of 2023, with an earnings before interest and taxes margin of 5.6% versus -2% and -12.8% in those prior periods.
Maersk shares were 1.6% lower at 12:45 p.m. in London on Wednesday. More

The agreement at a Maryland store, the first to unionize, raises wages roughly 10 percent over three years and guarantees benefits and severance pay.Workers at the first unionized Apple Store in the country ratified a labor contract with the tech giant on Tuesday, after a year and a half in which bargaining appeared to stall for long stretches and union campaigns at other stores fell short.After the union announced the outcome, Apple said it did not dispute the result and was pleased to have an agreement.The contract, covering about 85 workers at a Towson, Md., store who voted to join the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers in June 2022, will provide a typical worker with a raise of roughly 10 percent over the next three years.The workers will also effectively receive the same benefits as those in nonunion stores — a point of contention since the company introduced new benefits that excluded union stores in the fall of 2022 — as well as guaranteed severance pay.“We are giving our members a voice in their futures and a strong first step toward further gains,” the store’s bargaining committee said in a statement after reaching a deal with the company. “Together, we can build on this success in store after store.”The contract talks had appeared to bog down over equal access to the benefits that other stores receive, and over a nationwide change in Apple’s scheduling and availability policy for part-time workers. The union said the policy change would have forced roughly half a dozen Towson workers to quit because of conflicts with other commitments.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

Companywide profit increased, the result of hit movies and streaming growth. But Disney said softening theme park demand “could impact the next few quarters.”In Disney’s seemingly never-ending game of corporate Whac-a-Mole, a new trouble spot has arisen: Americans — battered by years of high inflation — have less money to spend on amusement, imperiling growth at Disney theme parks.On Wednesday, Disney reported weaker-than-expected theme park results for the three months that ended on June 29. Revenue increased 2 percent from a year earlier, to $8.4 billion, while operating profit declined 3 percent, to $2.2 billion. Disney blamed a “moderation of consumer demand” that “exceeded our previous expectations,” along with higher costs. Disney said softening demand “could impact the next few quarters.”Disney added that it was “aggressively managing our cost base.”Theme parks have taken on much greater financial importance at Disney over the past decade. They have been the A.T.M.s that have paid for Disney’s costly expansion into streaming and picked up the slack for the company’s atrophying cable television business. Last year, Disney Experiences, a division that includes theme parks and cruise ships, contributed 70 percent of the Walt Disney Company’s operating profit, up from about 30 percent a decade ago.Robert A. Iger, Disney’s chief executive, has called theme parks and cruise ships “a key growth engine” for the company. Last year, Disney said it would spend roughly $60 billion over the next decade to expand its parks and to continue building Disney Cruise Line, double the amount of the previous decade. Josh D’Amaro, chairman of Disney Experiences, is expected to unveil an array of specific expansion projects on Saturday at a fan convention in Anaheim, Calif.But there are reasons to worry that the U.S. economy could be headed toward a recession. In addition, the global postpandemic surge in travel is largely over. Citing a “normalization” of demand, Comcast said last month that quarterly revenue at its Universal theme parks had fallen 11 percent, while pretax earnings plunged 24 percent.Mr. Iger has been trying to move Disney beyond a tumultuous period when activist investors sought to alter the company’s direction. One activist, Nelson Peltz, mounted a proxy contest for board seats this year and harshly criticized Disney’s streaming strategy, succession planning and lagging stock price. Disney fended off the attacks, but its share price has fallen 27 percent since early April.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

It has powered the economic recovery from the pandemic shock. Now wallets are thinner, and some businesses are feeling the difference.The economy’s resurgence from the pandemic shock has had a singular driving force: the consumer. Flush with savings and buoyed by a sizzling labor market, Americans have spent exuberantly, on goods such as furniture and electronics and then on services including air travel and restaurant meals.How long this spending will hold up has become a crucial question.Despite contortions in world markets, many economists are cautioning that there is no reason to panic — at least not yet. In July, there was a notable slowdown in hiring and a jump in the unemployment rate to its highest level since October 2021, but consumer spending has remained relatively robust. Wages are rising, though at a slower rate, and job cuts are still low.“Overall, there isn’t evidence of a retrenchment in consumer spending,” said Gregory Daco, chief economist at the consulting firm EY-Parthenon. The strength of spending helped power greater-than-expected economic growth in the spring.That could change if the labor market’s slowdown accelerates.Already, some consumers, especially those with lower incomes, are feeling the dual pinch of higher prices and elevated interest rates that are weighing on their finances. Credit card delinquencies are rising, and household debt has swelled. Pandemic-era savings have dwindled. In June, Americans saved just 3.4 percent of their after-tax income, compared with 4.8 percent a year earlier.On calls with investors and in boardrooms around the country, corporate executives are acknowledging that customers are no longer spending as freely as they used to. And they are bracing themselves for the slide to continue.“We are seeing cautious consumers,” Brian Olsavsky, Amazon’s chief financial officer, said on a call with reporters last week. “They’re looking for deals.”We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

The economy has repeatedly defied predictions of a downturn since the pandemic recovery began. Now signs of strength contend with shakier readings.The U.S. economy has spent three years defying expectations. It emerged from the pandemic shock more quickly and more powerfully than many experts envisioned. It proved resilient in the face of both inflation and the higher interest rates the Federal Reserve used to combat it. The prospect many forecasters once considered imminent — a recession — looked increasingly like a false alarm.Until now.An unexpectedly weak jobs report on Friday — showing slower hiring in July, and a surprising jump in unemployment — triggered a sell-off in the stock market as investors worried that an economic downturn might be underway after all. By Monday, that decline had turned into a rout, with financial markets tumbling around the world.

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The number of jobs added in July was the second smallest monthly gain in years.
Note: Data is seasonally adjustedSource: Bureau of Labor StatisticsBy The New York Times

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The unemployment rate in July rose to the highest level since October 2021.
Note: Data is seasonally adjustedSource: Bureau of Labor StatisticsBy The New York TimesSome economists said investors were overreacting to one weak but hardly disastrous report, since many indicators show the economy on fundamentally firm footing.But they said there were also reasons to worry. Historically, increases in joblessness like the one in July — the unemployment rate rose to 4.3 percent, the highest since 2021 — have been a reliable indicator of a recession. And even without that precedent, there has been evidence that the labor market is weakening.

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The Sahm Rule indicator suggests a recession might have already begun.
Data is seasonally adjusted and shows the change in the U.S. unemployment rate compared with the low point in the previous 12 months. All calculations based on three-month moving average.Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. LouisBy The New York TimesWe are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

The announcement of CHIPS Act funding for a plant in Indiana means the United States will have attracted investment from the world’s top chipmakers.The Biden administration said on Tuesday that it would award up to $450 million in grants to a South Korean chipmaker, SK Hynix, to help build its new chip facility in Indiana, in what officials described as a milestone in rebuilding the U.S. semiconductor manufacturing industry.With the announcement, the United States now has commitments from all five of the world’s leading-edge semiconductor manufacturers to construct chip plants in the United States with financial assistance from the administration, Commerce Secretary Gina M. Raimondo said in a call with reporters on Monday. The Biden administration previously announced that it had reached agreements with Intel, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Samsung and Micron to help fund investments in the United States.“These are the only companies in the world capable of producing leading-edge chips at scale,” she said.SK Hynix announced in April that it had committed to investing $3.87 billion in a facility in West Lafayette, Ind. Ms. Raimondo called that investment a “huge deal” because it meant that the United States would “have the most secure and diverse supply chain in the world for the advanced semiconductors that power artificial intelligence.” SK Hynix makes advanced memory chips that are an essential component for creating A.I.Commerce Department officials said that, with the SK Hynix grant, the United States had now allocated more than $30 billion of a $39 billion pot of funding that stems from the CHIPS Act, a bipartisan law aimed at building up domestic chip manufacturing and reducing America’s dependence on Asia for vital semiconductors.Only about 10 percent of the world’s semiconductors are manufactured in the United States, down from about 37 percent in 1990. Reversing the nation’s declining share of global chip manufacturing has been a major priority for President Biden and a key component of his economic policy agenda.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More