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    G.M. Profit Down 7% in Strike-Affected Quarter

    The carmaker reported $3.1 billion in profit from July through September, which included two weeks of walkouts by the United Automobile Workers.General Motors said on Tuesday that it made $3.1 billion in profit from July through September, a year-over-year decline of more than 7 percent that was due partly to the six-week strike by the United Automobile Workers, which has idled two of the company’s vehicle plants and 18 of its parts distribution centers.G.M. said the strike had lowered its earnings before interest and taxes by about $200 million in the final weeks of the third quarter, and by about $600 million since the fourth quarter started on Oct. 1. The automaker also estimated that the strike could cost it $200 million a week going forward.“We continue to be optimistic we will be able to reach an agreement as soon as possible,” G.M.’s chief financial officer, Paul Jacobson, said in a conference call with reporters, but he declined to say if the company believed it was near a deal on a new contract with the U.A.W.On Friday, G.M. gave the union a contract offer that included a 23 percent increase in wages over four years. That would lift the standard U.A.W. wage from $32 an hour to more than $40. At that wage, an employee working 40 hours a week would earn about $84,000 a year, not including extra pay for overtime or profit-sharing bonuses, which have topped $10,000 in the past two years.Mr. Jacobson said negotiations with the union were continuing. The union’s strike, which has targeted specific sites owned by Detroit’s Big Three automakers, has idled a G.M. pickup truck plant in Missouri and another in Michigan that makes large sport utility vehicles.In the third quarter, G.M. earned almost all of its profit in North America, which is largely driven by factories in the United States staffed by U.A.W. members. Its bottom line was hurt by a 42 percent drop in profits from its joint ventures in China, a small profit decline in its financial arm and a loss from its Cruise division, which is working to develop self-driving cars.Despite the strike, G.M. reported that its revenue rose about 5 percent in the third quarter, to $44.1 billion. It sold 981,000 vehicles globally in the quarter, about 15,000 more than a year earlier.The company’s quarterly results were better than analysts expected, and G.M.’s stock rose in premarket trading on Tuesday.Mr. Jacobson said that G.M. hoped to introduce redesigned S.U.V. models that would be more profitable than those they were replacing, and that the company would save money by slowing its planned rollout of electric vehicles. G.M. recently said it was pushing back the start of production of electric pickups at a plant in Orion, Mich., from 2024 to late 2025, in response to slower-than-expected growth in sales of E.V.s.While G.M. is now planning a slower ramp-up of E.V. production in 2025, it still aims to be able to produce one million electric vehicles a year in North America by the end of 2025, Mr. Jacobson said.“Our commitment to an all-E.V. future is as strong as ever,” he said. More

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    New Normal or No Normal? How Economists Got It Wrong for 3 Years.

    Economists first underestimated inflation, then underestimated consumers and the labor market. The key question is why.Economists spent 2021 expecting inflation to prove “transitory.” They spent much of 2022 underestimating its staying power. And they spent early 2023 predicting that the Federal Reserve’s rate increases, meant to cure the inflation, would plunge the economy into a recession.None of those forecasts have panned out.Rapid inflation has now been a fact of life for 30 consecutive months. The Fed has lifted rates above 5.25 percent to hit the brakes on price increases, but the economy has remained surprisingly strong in the face of those moves. Americans are working in greater numbers than predicted, and recent retail sales data showed that consumers are still spending at a faster clip than just about anyone expected. For now, there is no economic downturn in sight.The question is why experts so severely misjudged the pandemic and postpandemic economy — and what it means for policy and the outlook going forward.Economists generally expect growth to slow late this year and into early next, nudging unemployment higher and gradually weighing inflation down. But several said the economy had been so hard to predict since the pandemic that they had low confidence about future projections.“The forecasts have been embarrassingly wrong, in the entire forecasting community,” said Torsten Slok at the asset manager Apollo Global Management. “We are still trying to figure out how this new economy works.”Economists were too optimistic on inflation.Two big issues have made it difficult to forecast since 2020. The first was the coronavirus pandemic. The world had not experienced such a sweeping disease since the Spanish flu in 1918, and it was hard to anticipate how it would roil commerce and consumer behavior.The second complication came from fiscal policy. The Trump and Biden administrations poured $4.6 trillion of recovery money and stimulus into the economy in response to the pandemic. President Biden then pushed Congress to approve several laws that provided funding to encourage infrastructure investment and clean energy development.Between coronavirus lockdowns and the government’s enormous response, standard economic relationships stopped serving as good guides to the future.Take inflation. Economic models suggested that it would not take off in a lasting way as long as unemployment was high. It made sense: If a bunch of consumers were out of work or earning tepid pay gains, they would pull back if companies charged more.But those models did not count on the savings that Americans had amassed from pandemic aid and months at home. Price increases began to take off in March 2021 as ravenous demand for products like used cars and at-home exercise equipment collided with global supply shortages. Unemployment was above 6 percent, but that did not stop shoppers.Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 exacerbated the situation, pushing up oil prices. And before long, the labor market had healed and wages were growing rapidly.Economic models did not take in to account that people were saving money during the pandemic that enabled them to buy goods even when unemployed.Jim Wilson/The New York TimesThey were too pessimistic on growth.As inflation showed staying power, officials at the Fed started to raise interest rates to cool demand — and economists began to predict that the moves would plunge the economy into recession.Central bankers were lifting rates at a speed not seen since the 1980s, making it sharply more expensive to take out a mortgage or car loan. The Fed had never changed rates so abruptly without spurring a downturn, many forecasters pointed out.“I think it’s been very seductive to make forecasts that are based on these types of observations,” said Jan Hatzius, Goldman Sachs’s chief economist, who has been predicting a gentler cool-down. “I think that understates how much this cycle has been different.”Not only has the recession failed to materialize so far, but growth has been surprisingly fast. Consumers have continued shelling out money for everything from Taylor Swift tickets to dog day care. Economists have regularly predicted that America’s shoppers are near a breaking point, only to be proved wrong.Part of the issue is a lack of good real-time data on consumer savings, said Karen Dynan, an economist at Harvard.“It’s been months now that we’ve been telling ourselves that people at the bottom of the income distribution have spent down their savings piles,” she said. “But we don’t really know.”At the same time, fiscal stimulus has had more staying power than expected: State and local governments continue to divvy out money they were allocated months or years ago.And consumers are getting more and better jobs, so incomes are fueling demand.Economists are now asking whether inflation can slow sufficiently without a pullback in growth. A landing so painless would be historically abnormal, but inflation has already cooled to 3.7 percent in September, down from a peak of about 9 percent.Normal may still be far away.Still, that is too quick for comfort: Inflation was about 2 percent before the pandemic. Given inflation’s stubbornness and the economy’s staying power, interest rates may need to stay elevated to bring it fully under control. On Wall Street, that even has a tagline: “Higher for longer.” Some economists even think that the low-rate, low-inflation world that prevailed from about 2009 to 2020 may never return. Donald Kohn, a former vice chair of the Fed, said big government deficits and the transition to green energy could keep growth and rates higher by propping up demand for borrowed cash.“My guess is that things aren’t going to go back,” Mr. Kohn said. “But my goodness, this is a distribution of outcomes.”Neil Dutta, an economist at Renaissance Macro, pointed out that America had a baby boom in the 1980s and early 1990s. Those people are now getting married, buying houses and having children. Their consumption could prop up growth and borrowing costs.“To me, it’s like the old normal — what was abnormal was that period,” Mr. Dutta said.Fed officials, for their part, are still predicting a return to an economy that looks like 2019. They expect rates to return to 2.5 percent over the longer term. They think that inflation will fade and growth will cool next year.The question is, what happens if they are wrong? The economy could slow more sharply than expected as the accumulated rate moves finally bite. Or inflation could get stuck, forcing the Fed to contemplate heftier interest rates than anyone has gambled on. Not a single person in a Bloomberg survey of nearly 60 economists expects interest rates to be higher at the end of 2024 than at the end of this year.Mr. Slok said it was a moment for modesty.“I think we have not figured it out,” he said. More

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    A Push for Tech Hubs in Overlooked Places Picks 31 to Vie for Money

    A new federal program will be a test of whether spreading funds outside of big cities will result in economic gains, or in inefficiencies.The Biden administration said on Monday that it had chosen 31 regions as potential recipients of federal money that would seek to fund innovation in parts of the country that government investment overlooked in the past.The announcement was the first phase of a program that aims to establish so-called tech hubs around the country across a variety of cutting-edge industries, like quantum computing, precision medicine and clean energy. In the coming months, the regions will compete for a share of $500 million, with roughly five to 10 of the projects receiving up to about $75 million each, the administration said.The program will test a central idea of a bipartisan bill that lawmakers passed last year: that science and technology funding should not just be concentrated in Silicon Valley and a few thriving coastal regions but flow to parts of the country that are less populated or have historically received less government funding.Proponents of the program say these investments can tap into pools of workers and economic resources that are not reaching their full potential, and improve the American economy as well as its technological abilities.But it remains to be seen if dispatching money to more remote places, which struggle with issues like an outflow of young workers, will ultimately be the most efficient way to use government funding to promote technological gains.The 31 finalists were chosen from nearly 400 applicants, the Commerce Department said. They include proposals to manufacture semiconductors in New York and Oregon, design autonomous systems for transportation and agriculture in Oklahoma, research biotechnology in Indiana and process critical minerals in Missouri.In Washington on Monday, President Biden said these tech hubs would bring together private industry, educational institutions, state and local governments, tribes, and organized labor to produce “transformational” research.“We’re doing this from coast to coast, and in the heartland and red states and blue states, small towns, cities of all sizes,” Mr. Biden added. “All this is part of my strategy to invest in America and invest in Americans.”Senator Chuck Schumer of New York, the majority leader, said in an interview on Monday that the tech hub program, which he had devised with Senator Todd Young, an Indiana Republican, had helped to secure bipartisan support for the CHIPS and Science Act last year.The legislation included $200 billion for basic scientific research, and more than $75 billion in grants and tax credits for semiconductor companies. It aimed to lower the country’s dependence on foreign manufacturers of computer chips and other critical technology.Mr. Schumer said “it was a very big selling point” for the overall bill that the funding was not just going to “three or four cities in blue states.”“There was such divisiveness in the country, the coasts and non-coasts, and a lot of it was because all these new tech and high-end industries were locating on the coasts,” he said. “And so we crafted the tech hub program to be spread throughout the middle of America.”Mr. Schumer was touring Buffalo, Rochester and Syracuse on Monday to celebrate the inclusion of two New York proposals, one focused on semiconductor manufacturing and the other on battery technology.“There’s a lot of talent here that’s not used,” he added.Mark Muro, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution’s Metropolitan Policy Program, described the tech hub program as “a grand experiment” in industrial policy.Mr. Muro said the United States had seen the incredible strength of concentrating technology investments in a few key places like Silicon Valley, where companies in related businesses can benefit by clustering together. But those investment patterns have also resulted in tremendous imbalances in the country’s economy, where “only a few places are truly prospering and much talent and much innovation is left on the table,” he said.“This is a whole different map,” Mr. Muro said, adding, “I think we need to make some experiments and some of them will probably be great investments.”The announcements tried to balance several competing goals of the tech hubs, including whether to invest in as many regions as possible — or whether to concentrate spending in a few areas in hopes of engineering radical economic improvement in those areas. They also reflected the high interest in the program from regional officials and their representatives in Congress.The administration is also trying to do as much as possible with initial funding for the program that remains well below the maximum levels lawmakers set in the CHIPS bill. While that bill authorized Congress to fund a variety of programs, lawmakers still need to greenlight actual money for many of the tech hub investments, as well as other programs.Given those financial constraints, some supporters of the program said on Monday that they hoped administration officials would ultimately focus most of the money on a small set of the announced hubs. Ideally, “you’d be extremely narrow about who gets funding,” said John Lettieri, president and chief executive of the Economic Innovation Group, a Washington think tank. “The more narrow the better.”The later round of funding announcements, he added, “is where we have to be pretty ruthless about shielding the process from politics as much as possible.”Madeleine Ngo More

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    U.A.W. Expands Strike to a Ram Plant in Michigan

    The United Automobile Workers union called on 6,800 workers to walk off the job at a large factory that makes one of Stellantis’s most profitable vehicles.In a major escalation of its six-week strike at the three large U.S. automakers, the United Automobile Workers union on Monday told 6,800 workers at a large Ram pickup truck plant in Michigan to walk off the job.Union workers at the Sterling Heights plant, which is owned by Stellantis, the parent of Ram, Chrysler and Jeep, joined the strike on Monday morning. Shutting down production at the plant, the largest Stellantis factory in the United States, suggests there are still big gaps in contract negotiations between the automakers and the U.A.W., which is seeking raises of 40 percent over four years, better retirement benefits and other changes.The union’s strategy in this strike is a departure from its past practice of striking all locations of one automaker before beginning negotiations with the next automaker. This time, the union started with a strike at one plant at each of the three carmakers — Ford Motor, General Motors and Stellantis — and has expanded them to other factories and warehouses to increase the pressure on companies that it said were not doing enough to improve their offers.The new approach has kept the automakers off balance because they don’t know when or where the union will walk out next. It is also a way for the union to play the companies off one another. The union’s president, Shawn Fain, has offered side-by-side comparisons of the three companies’ offers on wages, retirement benefits and other negotiating terms in online videos.On Friday, General Motors put forward a more lucrative contract proposal. By calling for the strike at the Sterling Heights plant, the U.A.W. is trying to pressure Stellantis into at least matching the terms that G.M. offered.“Stellantis has the worst proposal on the table regarding wage progression, temporary worker pay and conversion to full-time, cost-of-living adjustments, and more,” the U.A.W. said in a statement on Monday.In its offer, G.M. proposed raising workers’ wages by 23 percent over four years. That would lift the wage for all full-time workers from $32 an hour to more than $40, giving them a base pay of about $84,000 a year, not including overtime or profit-sharing bonuses.The walkout at the Ram plant is the first escalation in the strike since the U.A.W. called 8,700 workers to leave their jobs at Ford’s largest plant, in Louisville, Ky., on Oct. 11. That plant produces the Super Duty version of the popular F-series pickup trucks and the Ford Expedition, a full-size sport utility vehicle.In a statement, Stellantis said the company was “outraged” by the expansion of the strike, noting that it made a comprehensive new proposal to the union on Thursday morning and was waiting for a counterproposal from the U.A.W.“Our very strong offer would address member demands and provide immediate financial gains for our employees,” the company said. “Instead, the U.A.W. has decided to cause further harm to the entire automotive industry as well as our local, state and national economies.”U.A.W. members were already on strike at one other Stellantis plant, a factory in Toledo, Ohio, that makes the Jeep Wrangler and the Jeep Gladiator. The union has also struck 20 Stellantis spare-parts distribution warehouses around the country.Where Autoworkers Are Walking Out More

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    How High Interest Rates Sting Bakers, Farmers and Consumers

    Home buyers, entrepreneurs and public officials are confronting a new reality: If they want to hold off on big purchases or investments until borrowing is less expensive, it’s probably going to be a long wait.Governments are paying more to borrow money for new schools and parks. Developers are struggling to find loans to buy lots and build homes. Companies, forced to refinance debts at sharply higher interest rates, are more likely to lay off employees — especially if they were already operating with little or no profits.Over the past few weeks, investors have realized that even with the Federal Reserve nearing an end to its increases in short-term interest rates, market-based measures of long-term borrowing costs have continued rising. In short, the economy may no longer be able to avoid a sharper slowdown.“It’s a trickle-down effect for everyone,” said Mary Kay Bates, the chief executive of Bank Midwest in Spirit Lake, Iowa.Small banks like Ms. Bates’s are at the epicenter of America’s credit crunch for small businesses. During the pandemic, with the Fed’s benchmark interest rate near zero and consumers piling up savings in bank accounts, she could make loans at 3 to 4 percent. She also put money into safe securities, like government bonds.But when the Fed’s rate started rocketing up, the value of Bank Midwest’s securities portfolio fell — meaning that if Ms. Bates sold the bonds to fund more loans, she would have to take a steep loss. Deposits were also waning, as consumers spent down their savings and moved money into higher-yielding assets.Higher Interest Rates Are Here More

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    U.S. wraps up fiscal year with a budget deficit near $1.7 trillion, up 23%

    The federal government wound up its fiscal year in September.
    Wrapping up a year in which some thought the shortfall could exceed $2 trillion, the U.S. ended up with an imbalance of $1.695 trillion, up about $320 billion.
    The budget report comes the same week Biden asked Congress to allocate $105 billion for “national security priorities.”

    Janet Yellen, U.S. Secretary of the Treasury, participates in a global infrastructure and investment forum in New York on Sept. 21, 2023.
    Pool | Via Reuters

    The federal government wound up its fiscal year in September with a deficit just shy of $1.7 trillion, the U.S. Department of the Treasury announced Friday.
    Wrapping up a year in which some thought the shortfall could exceed $2 trillion, the U.S. ended up with an imbalance of $1.695 trillion, up about $320 billion, or 23.2%, from fiscal 2022.

    The huge deficit came as revenue fell $457 billion from a year ago and expenses decreased by just $137 billion. Outlays for the year totaled $6.134 trillion.
    The budget shortfall adds to the staggering U.S. debt total, which stood at $33.6 trillion earlier this week. The deficit level was eased somewhat when the Supreme Court voided President Joe Biden’s effort to erase billions in student loan debt.
    That number has swelled by more than $10 trillion since the first quarter of 2020, when the Covid-19 pandemic hit and pushed the government into a spending spree aimed at making up for the damage done to the economy.
    Of the government outlays last year, some $659 billion went for net interest on the accumulated debt, up from $475 billion in fiscal 2022.
    Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the administration is “committed to addressing challenges to our long-term fiscal outlook” and pointed out several measures she said are going to bring down the deficit over the next decade.

    “The U.S. economy remains resilient despite global headwinds,” Yellen said. “Previous expectations that the U.S. would fall into recession over the course of 2023 have not borne out.”
    Financing the debt has gotten significantly more expensive over the past year as the Federal Reserve has jacked up benchmark interest rates in an effort to combat inflation. The central bank has raised its key lending rate by 5.25 percentage points, and Treasury yields have responded in kind. The 10-year Treasury note has been flirting with a 5% yield. It was less than 1% through 2020.
    The budget report comes the same week Biden asked Congress to allocate $105 billion for “national security priorities,” including $61 billion for Ukraine, along with humanitarian assistance in Israel and Gaza.Don’t miss these CNBC PRO stories: More

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    The Multimillion-Dollar Machines at the Center of the U.S.-China Rivalry

    The United States is taking unusual action to clamp down on sales of chip-making machinery to China, even as Chinese firms are racing to stockpile the equipment.They are smooth white boxes, roughly the size of large cargo vans, and they are now at the heart of the U.S.-Chinese technology conflict.As the United States tries to slow China’s progress toward technological advances that could help its military, the complex lithography machines that print intricate circuitry on computer chips have become a key choke point.The machines are central to China’s efforts to develop its own chip-making industry, but China does not yet have the technology to make them, at least in their most advanced forms. This week, U.S. officials took steps to curb China’s progress toward that goal by barring companies globally from sending additional types of chip-making machines to China, unless they obtain a special license from the U.S. government.The move could be a significant blow to China’s chip-manufacturing ambitions. It is also an unusual flexing of American regulatory power. American officials took the position that they could regulate equipment manufactured outside the United States if it contains even just one American-made part.That decision gives U.S. officials new sway over companies in the Netherlands and Japan, where some of the most advanced chip machinery is made. In particular, U.S. rules will now stop shipments of some machines that use deep ultraviolet, or DUV, technology made mainly by the Dutch firm ASML, which dominates the lithography market.Vera Kranenburg, a China researcher at the Clingendael Institute, a Dutch think tank, said that while ASML had made clear that it would follow the regulations, the company was already chafing under earlier regulations that barred it from exporting a more sophisticated lithography machine to China.“They’re of course not happy about the export controls,” she said.After being thrust into geopolitics yet again, ASML has been careful in its response, saying in a statement this week that it complies with all laws and regulations in the countries where it operates. Peter Wennink, the chief executive, said the company would not be able to ship certain tools to “just a handful” of Chinese chip factories. But “it is still sales that we had in 2023 that we’ll not have in 2024,” he added.In a statement, the Dutch foreign trade minister, Liesje Schreinemacher, said that the Netherlands shared U.S. security concerns and continuously exchanges information with the United States, but that “ultimately, every country decides for itself what export restrictions to impose.” She pointed to more permissive restrictions announced by the Dutch government in June.A spokesman for the U.S. Department of Commerce declined to comment.ASML’s technology has enabled leaps in global computing power. The increasing precision of its machines — which have tens of thousands of components and cost as much as hundreds of millions of dollars each — has allowed circuitry on chips to get progressively smaller, letting companies pack more computing power into a tiny piece of silicon.The technology has also given the United States and its allies an important source of leverage over China, as governments compete to turn technological gains into military advantages. Although Beijing is pouring money into the semiconductor industry, Chinese chip-making equipment remains many years behind the prowess of ASML and other key machine suppliers, including Applied Materials and Lam Research in the United States and Tokyo Electron and Canon in Japan.But U.S. efforts to weaponize this technological advantage against China appear to be straining alliances. In Europe, government officials increasingly agree with the United States that China poses a geopolitical and economic threat. But they are still wary of undercutting their own companies by blocking them from China, one of the world’s largest and most vibrant tech markets.Dutch technology, in particular, has been the focus of a multiyear pressure campaign from the United States. In 2019, the Trump administration persuaded the Dutch to block shipments to China of ASML’s most state-of-the-art machine, which uses extreme ultraviolet technology.After months of diplomatic pressure from the Biden administration, the governments of the Netherlands and Japan agreed in January that they would also independently curb sales of some deep ultraviolet lithography machines and other types of advanced chip-making equipment to China.The United States and its allies have viewed sales of the deep ultraviolet lithography machines as less of a national security risk. The chips they produce are considerably less advanced than those built with the most cutting-edge machines, which now power the latest smartphones, supercomputers and A.I. models.But that position was tested this summer when a Chinese firm used ASML’s deep ultraviolet lithography technology along with other advanced machines to blow past a technological barrier that U.S. officials had hoped to keep China from reaching.In August, the Chinese telecom giant Huawei unexpectedly released a new smartphone containing a Chinese-made chip with transistor dimensions rated at seven nanometers, just a couple of technology generations behind the latest chips made in Taiwan. Analysts have concluded that China’s Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation made the chip with the use of the Dutch deep ultraviolet lithography machinery.Gregory C. Allen, a technology expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington think tank, said the new export control rules had been in the works long before the Huawei announcement. But, he said, the development “helped leaders throughout the U.S. government understand that there was no more time to waste and that updated controls were urgently needed.”Mr. Allen said the controls would not necessarily break China’s most advanced chip-makers immediately, since they had already stockpiled a lot of advanced machinery. But it would “dramatically restrict” their ability to manufacture the most advanced kinds of semiconductors, like seven-nanometer chips, he said.For now, ASML is still doing brisk business with China. In its earnings report this week, ASML said sales to China had surged in the third quarter to account for 46 percent of the company’s global total, far above historical levels.Analysts at TD Cowen estimated that ASML’s China sales would reach 5.5 billion euros (about $5.8 billion) this year, more than double the total last year. Next year, the new export controls could cut 10 to 15 percent off the company’s China revenues, they projected.Roger Dassen, ASML’s chief financial officer, said in the earnings call that most of the orders that ASML was completing this year had been placed in 2022 or even the year before, and were largely for machines that would make slightly older types of chips.All the shipments were “very much within the limits of export regulation,” Mr. Dassen said.For the machines that face new U.S. restrictions, the Dutch company will now be barred from supplying replacement parts and helping to service those systems. That will mean Chinese companies are likely to have manufacturing problems at some point.These hugely expensive machines rely on regular software and maintenance support to continue churning out chips, said Joanne Chiao, a semiconductor analyst at TrendForce, a market research firm.ASML is not the only equipment supplier caught up in the latest restrictions. Other kinds of advanced machines that are essential to produce the most advanced chips, like those from the U.S. companies Applied Materials and Lam Research, are detailed in the latest restrictions.Lam, in a conference call on Wednesday, said revenue from China jumped 48 percent in its first fiscal quarter as companies stocked up on machines to make both mature chips and advanced products. It had already estimated that restrictions on sales to China would hold down revenue this year by $2 billion; executives added that the expanded rules issued this week wouldn’t materially change that estimate.An Applied Materials spokesman said the company was still reviewing the new rules to gauge their potential impact.John Liu More

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    Fed’s Raphael Bostic doesn’t foresee rate cuts coming until ‘late 2024’

    Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic on Friday said he doesn’t envision interest rate cuts happening until well into 2024.
    “We’re going to have to be cautious, we’re going to have to be patient, but we’re going to have to be resolute,” he told CNBC.

    Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic on Friday said he doesn’t envision interest rate cuts happening until well into 2024.
    Though he cited progress on inflation and a slowing economy, the central bank official told CNBC that there’s still a lot of work to be done before the Fed reaches its inflation goal of 2% annually.

    “I would say late 2024,” Bostic replied when asked for a time frame when the first decrease could come.
    The Fed has raised its key borrowing rate 11 times since March 2022 for a total of 5.25 percentage points. While Bostic said he doesn’t see policymakers easing anytime soon, he has been explicit in insisting that rates have hit a “sufficiently restrictive” level where they don’t need to be raised anymore.
    However, he cautioned that the road back to acceptable levels of inflation could be a long one.
    “There’s still a lot of momentum in the economy. My outlook says that inflation is going to come down but it’s not going to like fall off a cliff,” Bostic said during the “Squawk Box” interview. “It’ll be sort of a progression that’s going to take some time. And so we’re going to have to be cautious, we’re going to have to be patient, but we’re going to have to be resolute.”
    Bostic is not a voting member this year of the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee, but will get a vote in 2024.

    He said he does not expect “that we will be cutting rates before the middle of next year, at the earliest.”
    “I really do try to keep people focused on what inflation is, still at 3.7%. Our target is 2,” he said. “They’re not the same, and we have to get a lot closer to the 2% before we’re going to consider … any kind of relaxation of our posture.”
    Following a slew of Fed speakers in recent days, including Chair Jerome Powell on Thursday, market pricing has removed any chance of a rate increase when the FOMC next meets Oct. 31-Nov. 1. The probability for an increase in December is just 25%, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, which gauges pricing in the fed funds futures market.
    Markets are anticipating two or three quarter-point cuts by the end of 2024.
    One reason the Fed could consider easing rates would be a deceleration or recession in economic growth. While Bostic said he does not anticipate a recession ahead, he does see conditions changing. Business contacts have been telling him they are preparing for a slowdown, he said.
    “We are not going to see recession, that is not in my outlook,” he said. “We are going to see a slowdown, and inflation will get down to 2%.”
    Bostic spoke following some significant move in financial markets, particularly in Treasury yields. After breaching the psychologically important 5% level earlier in the session, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield eased somewhat, most recently trading around 4.97%.
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