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    U.A.W. Starts Strike Small, but Repercussions Could Prove Far-Reaching

    Autoworkers walked off the job on Friday at three factories that produce some of the Detroit carmakers’ most popular vehicles, the opening salvos in what could become a protracted strike that hurts the U.S. economy and has an impact on the 2024 presidential election.Nearly 13,000 members of the United Auto Workers at plants in Ohio, Michigan and Missouri joined early Friday in what the union described as a targeted strike that could expand to more plants if its demands for pay raises of up to 40 percent and other gains were not met.The union’s four-year contracts with three automakers — General Motors, Ford Motor and Stellantis, which owns Chrysler, Jeep and Ram — expired Thursday, and the companies and the union remained far from striking new deals.The U.A.W.’s president, Shawn Fain, used sweeping language on Thursday to describe why his members were going on strike against all three automakers at the same time — something the union had never done in its nearly 90-year history.“This is our generation’s defining moment,” Mr. Fain, the union’s first leader elected directly by members, said in an online video. “The money is there, the cause is righteous, the world is watching, and the U.A.W. is ready to stand up.”The union and the companies did not negotiate on Friday, but the U.A.W. said it planned to resume bargaining on Saturday. President Biden dispatched two senior administration officials to Detroit on Friday to encourage the companies and union to reach agreements.At a Ford plant in Wayne, Mich., west of Detroit, strikers waved placards — one read, “Record Profits; Record Contracts” — and gave thumbs-up to honking vehicles. A metal sign on a chain-link fence read, “Absolutely NO foreign cars allowed.” The protesters were assigned to a six-hour shift on the picket line. If the strike continues, they will be called to one shift per week.While first and foremost a battle between autoworkers and automakers, the conflict could have far-reaching consequences. A lengthy strike would reduce the number of new cars available for sale, which could fuel inflation and force the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates high.The U.A.W.’s president, Shawn Fain, center, at the walkout early Friday at Ford Motor’s assembly plant in Wayne, Mich.Cydni Elledge for The New York TimesA strike also presents a quandary for Mr. Biden, who has called for rising incomes but must also be mindful of the strike’s economic impact and his goal to promote electric vehicles as a solution to climate change.Speaking at the White House on Friday, the president strongly supported the union. “Over the past decade, auto companies have seen record profits, including in the last few years, because of the extraordinary skill and sacrifices of U.A.W. workers,” he said. “But those record profits have not been shared fairly.”The U.A.W. says its pay demands roughly correspond to the increases in the compensation of the top executives at Ford, G.M. and Stellantis. The raises are also meant to help compensate workers for the ground they have lost to inflation and big concessions the union made to the automakers after the 2007-8 financial crisis, when G.M. and Chrysler were forced to restructure themselves in bankruptcy court.But auto executives say they already pay production workers substantially more than rivals, like Tesla and Toyota, whose U.S. workers are not unionized. The companies also contend that such big raises would undermine their efforts to develop electric vehicles and remain relevant as the industry makes a difficult and costly shift from gasoline cars and trucks to electric vehicles.If unions got all that they were asking for, “we would have to cancel our E.V. investments,” Jim Farley, the chief executive of Ford, said in an interview on Friday. Instead, Ford would need to concentrate on large sport utility vehicles and pickups that generate the most profit, he said.Ford, which employs the most union members, reported a profit of $1.9 billion in the second quarter, equal to 4 percent of its sales. Tesla made $2.7 billion in the same period, about 11 percent of its sales.Mr. Farley sounded pessimistic about the chances of agreeing on a contract soon. “They are not negotiating in good faith if they are proposing deals that they know are going to crater our investments,” he said.Mr. Fain’s decision to shut down just three factories is a departure for the union, which in previous strikes typically walked out of all the factories of a single automaker. By interrupting production of some of the most profitable vehicles, while allowing most plants to keep operating, the union hopes to inflict pain on the carmakers while allowing most of its members to continue collecting paychecks.But it may be difficult for the union to limit the damage to its members’ incomes. Ford told workers at a facility in Michigan, who were not on strike, to stay home Friday because of parts shortages caused by the strike. G.M. said it would probably lay off 2,000 workers at a factory in Kansas next week because of a lack of parts produced at the factory near St. Louis that is on strike.Fewer than 10 percent of the nearly 150,000 U.A.W. members at the three companies are on strike. Limited strikes could allow the union to maintain the pressure longer by preserving its strike fund of $825 million. The union will pay striking workers $500 a week and cover their health insurance premiums.Automakers have been earning record profits “because of the extraordinary skill and sacrifices of U.A.W. workers,” President Biden said at the White House on Friday.Anna Rose Layden for The New York TimesIn addition to the Ford plant in Michigan, which makes the Bronco and the Ranger pickup truck, and the G.M. plant in Wentzville, Mo., which makes the GMC Canyon and the Chevrolet Colorado, workers shut down a Stellantis complex in Toledo, Ohio, that makes the Jeep Gladiator and Jeep Wrangler. If no agreement is reached, the union is expected to target additional factories in weeks to come.The union is also seeking cost-of-living adjustments that would protect workers if inflation flares up again. And it wants to reinstate pensions that the union agreed to do away with for newer workers after the financial crisis, improved retiree benefits and shorter work hours. The union also wants to eliminate a wage system that starts new hires at much lower wages than the top U.A.W. pay of $32 an hour.As of Friday last week, the companies had offered to raise pay by around 14.5 percent to 20 percent over four years. Their offers include lump-sum payments to help offset the effects of inflation, and policy changes that would lift the pay of recent hires and temporary workers, who typically earn about a third less than veteran union members.In a last-minute attempt to keep assembly lines running, G.M. offered its employees a 20 percent raise late Thursday and said it was willing to pay cost-of-living adjustments to veteran workers. The 20 percent increase would be far more than employees had received in decades. But the union rejected the offer, which it says would barely compensate for inflation.Autoworkers striking at the G.M. factory in Wentzville, Mo.Neeta Satam for The New York TimesLeaders of the automakers have criticized the U.A.W.’s tactics, focusing on Mr. Fain, who became president in March and declared an end to what he said were overly friendly relations between union leaders and auto executives. He took office after a federal corruption investigation resulted in prison terms for two former U.A.W. presidents.Carlos Tavares, the chief executive of Stellantis, has called Mr. Fain’s strategy “posturing.” Mr. Farley of Ford said the two sides should be negotiating instead of “planning strikes and P.R. events.” And Mary T. Barra, the G.M. chief executive, said that “every negotiation takes on the personality of its leader.”If the autoworkers are successful, they could inspire workers in other industries. Union activism is on the rise: Hollywood screenwriters and actors have been on strike for months, and in August, United Parcel Service employees won their biggest raises ever in a contract negotiated by the International Brotherhood of Teamsters.“Workers have been squeezed for too long and now are realizing they can do something about it,” said Mijin Cha, an assistant professor at the University of California, Santa Cruz, who studies the relationship between labor’s interests and the fight against climate change. “People see there is a pathway to more economic security and workers do have power together.”Late on Friday, at an outdoor rally in downtown Detroit attended by several hundred U.A.W. members, Mr. Fain introduced Senator Bernie Sanders, a Vermont independent, who told the crowd: “The fight you are waging here is not just about decent wages and working conditions and pensions in the auto industry. It’s a fight to take on corporate greed.”The strikes come as auto production is still recovering from the effects of the pandemic, which caused shortages of semiconductors and other components. Car prices and wait times have come down, but dealer inventories remain low and a lengthy strike could eventually make it hard to find popular U.S.-made models.“We’re not back to speed inventory-wise,” said Wes Lutz, the owner of Extreme Dodge, a car dealership in Jackson, Mich.Wes Lutz, the owner of Extreme Dodge in Michigan said, “We’re not back to speed inventory wise.”Brittany Greeson for The New York TimesScarcity is not always bad for carmakers. It allowed them to earn higher profit margins during the pandemic. And it would benefit any carmakers that were having trouble moving some models. Pat Ryan, chief executive of the car-shopping app Co-Pilot, said that Stellantis had at least 100 days of inventory for brands like Dodge and Chrysler, and that a strike could help it clear many dealers’ lots.Still, if prices for popular models rise, that will be yet another speed bump in the Federal Reserve’s road to lowering inflation, and a political liability for Mr. Biden. The president, who has no formal role in the negotiations, said Friday that he had been in touch with union leaders and auto executives, in addition to dispatching the two administration officials to Detroit.Reporting was contributed by More

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    Bernie Sanders Condemns Corporate Greed at U.A.W. Detroit Rally

    At a rally in downtown Detroit on Friday, just a couple of hundred yards from the headquarters of General Motors, Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont addressed a cheering crowd of United Auto Workers members, capping a day of walkouts by the union with an effort to rally support for the strike.Mr. Sanders echoed the populist talking points of his campaigns for president in 2016 and 2020, speaking about income inequality in the United States, and he criticized the chief executives of the Big Three automakers — G.M., Stellantis and Ford Motor — for their compensation.“The fight you are waging here is not just about decent wages and working conditions and pensions in the auto industry,” Mr. Sanders said. “It’s a fight to take on corporate greed and tell the people on top the country belongs to all of us, not just the few.”The rally took place along Detroit’s riverfront, near the city’s iconic Renaissance Center towers, home to G.M. headquarters. Also nearby is the Huntington Place convention center, where auto executives were gathering for a black-tie charity ball to kick off the 2023 Detroit auto show.Several hundred U.A.W. members, most of them clad in labor’s red shirts and waving picket signs, crowded in front of the rally’s small stage. A dozen television cameras were jammed together on another small, raised platform to record the event. As the crowd awaited the first speakers, a sound system blared upbeat anthems like Sister Sledge’s “We Are Family“ and “We’re Not Going to Take It” by Twisted Sister.Throughout Mr. Sanders’s speech, they erupted into chants of “Bernie, Bernie!”Mr. Sanders spoke about the growing gap between C.E.O. and worker pay. The U.A.W. has said that one of the driving forces behind its demands for higher pay is the growth in compensation for the top leaders at the Big Three automakers.Addressing the Big Three leaders, Mr. Sanders said, “Understand, C.E.O.s, the sacrifices your workers have made over the years.”In a comment directed at Mary T. Barra, G.M.’s chief executive, Mr. Sanders said, “Do you understand what it’s like to live on $17 an hour?” Mr. Sanders went on to make pointed remarks about the growth in compensation for Ms. Barra, as well as Carlos Tavares and Jim Farley, her counterparts at Stellantis and Ford.Mr. Sanders also lamented the gap in pay between newer and more veteran workers at the automakers. “Time is long overdue to end the two-tiered system,” he said.Among Mr. Sanders’s talking points was the country’s decline in well-paying union jobs. Mr. Sanders has long railed against the forces that have moved many manufacturing and automotive jobs overseas, including globalization and free trade agreements.He closed his speech by saying, “Let us all stand with the U.A.W.” More

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    The Strike Could Mean a Rise in Car Prices for Consumers

    It’s not a great time to be in the market for a new car.Prices are rising, options are limited and interest rates are higher than they’ve been in over 20 years. A targeted U.A.W. strike began at three plants in the Midwest at midnight Thursday, and if it lasts long enough, it could cut the supply of vehicles and push prices even higher.The Federal Reserve started raising interest rates in March last year to combat inflation, eventually pushing its benchmark rate to the highest level since 2001. That has had an effect on rates for auto loans, which are now about 7.4 percent on average for new cars and 11.2 percent for used cars, according to Edmunds.“You’re going to get sticker shock in two different ways: the actual sticker price, and the cost of financing that purchase,” said Greg McBride, chief financial analyst for Bankrate, an online service that compares the interest rates of various financial products.Higher interest rates mean those who can put off buying a new car until next year or later, probably will. High rates were the top factor holding back business for car dealers this quarter, according to a recent survey from Cox Automotive.Mark Scarpelli, the owner of Raymond Chevrolet in Antioch, Ill., said few people who buy cars from his dealership pay in cash, and more expensive, larger vehicles are increasing in popularity. Still, some buyers cannot wait.“Our folks are needing that vehicle to get to their jobs, support their families, pick up their son or daughter from day care,” he said. “While, in some cases cars and trucks may be a novelty or third or fourth vehicle, 99 percent of the vehicles we sell are for necessity.” More

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    U.A.W. Holds Strike at GM, Ford and Stellantis. Here’s What to Know

    Negotiators for the United Auto Workers union and the three large U.S. automakers — General Motors, Ford Motor and Stellantis, the parent of Chrysler, Jeep and Ram — remained far apart as a limited strike began on Friday.The strike is not a full-scale walkout by the union’s roughly 150,000 members but a “limited and targeted” work stoppage by about 12,700 workers that could expand if talks remain bogged down. It began after workers’ four-year contracts expired.The union must negotiate separate deals with each of the companies on issues including pay and retirement benefits.What is the union seeking?The U.A.W. has demanded a 40 percent wage increase over four years — an amount that union officials said matches the raises the top executives at the three companies have received over the last four years. Those raises are also meant to compensate for more modest increases the autoworkers received in recent years and the concessions the union made to the companies after the 2008 financial crisis.The union is also seeking cost-of-living adjustments that would nudge wages higher to compensate for inflation. And it wants a reinstatement of pensions for all workers, improved retiree benefits and shorter work hours, as well as and an end to a tiered wage system that starts new hires at much lower wages than the top U.A.W. pay of $32 an hour.What have the companies offered?As of last Friday, the companies offered to raise pay by around 14.5 percent to 20 percent over four years. Their offers include lump-sum payments to help offset the effects of inflation, and policy changes that would lift the pay of recent hires and temporary workers, who typically earn about a third less than veteran union members.It was not clear how much progress the union and the companies have made on the other issues.What have the negotiators said publicly?The companies say that they are investing billions in a transition to battery-powered vehicles, which makes it harder for them to pay substantially higher wages. They say they are at a disadvantage compared with nonunion automakers like Tesla, which dominates the sales of electric cars.On Thursday, G.M. said in a statement that it had made a new offer to the union and that the company was engaged in “continuous, direct, and good faith negotiations” in an effort to avoid a strike.Declaring that “the future of our industry is at stake,” Ford said on Wednesday that it was “ready to reach a deal,” adding, “We should be working creatively to solve hard problems rather than planning strikes and P.R. events.”Stellantis said on Wednesday that its “focus remains on bargaining in good faith to have a tentative agreement on the table before tomorrow’s deadline.”In a 40-minute address on Wednesday, the union’s president, Shawn Fain, called the automakers’ offers “insulting.”“For the last 40 years, the billionaire class has been taking everything and leaving everybody else to fight for the scraps,” he said. “We are not the problem. Corporate greed is the problem.”What will striking workers get paid?The union plans to pay striking workers $500 per week and cover the cost of their health insurance premiums. The union’s $825 million strike fund is big enough to cover payments to workers in a full strike against all three companies for about three months — although the U.A.W. has said it would expand the limited stoppage only if talks bogged down.What does the strike mean for consumers?Only certain models of cars are affected right now, but if the strike lasts long enough to start impacting inventories, car dealers will have fewer vehicles on their lots and may start pushing up prices on the ones they do have.This comes at a time when car prices had already been rising, and the average interest rates on auto loans had been climbing — making it harder for buyers to afford cars. More

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    A Spirited Start to the U.A.W. Strike at a Ford Plant Near Detroit

    Rodney Cornett got up at 4:30 a.m. on Friday, hopped in his F-150 pickup and reported as usual for a morning shift at the Ford Motor plant in Wayne, a gritty city just west of Detroit.But this morning Mr. Cornett, 56, a veteran union member who has worked at Ford for 28 years, wasn’t heading to the axle assembly area where he’s a team leader. Instead, his work was putting in six hours on the picket line with a dozen co-workers at the plant’s Gate 1 as part of the strike called by the United Auto Workers late Thursday.“We really haven’t had much of a raise in 15 years,” Mr. Cornett said, holding a sign that read, “Fair Pay Now!” while cars and trucks constantly whizzed by, honking in support of the strikers. “We’ve gone through several contracts, and the company keeps saying how they’re hurting, but they’re making record profits. It can’t be the status quo.”The U.A.W. has been negotiating a new labor contract with the three Detroit automakers, but since the sides remain far apart on wages and most other issues, the union called a strike that began when the current bargaining agreement expired at midnight.In a first, the U.A.W. is striking against all three manufacturers — General Motors, Ford and Stellantis — but has limited the stoppages to one plant at each of the companies. At Ford’s Michigan Assembly Plant in Wayne, only the 3,300 workers in the assembly area and paint shop have walked off the line, but that is enough to idle the factory.Dottie Lenard, center, with her sister Gail Spring, left, and daughter Rebeccah Lenard. They were on strike on Friday in Wayne.Shantell Johnson works at the Ford plant.All 5,800 U.A.W. workers at Stellantis’s Jeep complex in Toledo, Ohio, and 3,600 union members at G.M.’s pickup truck factory in Wentzville, Mo., also went on strike.While limited, the strike will have an impact on the automakers. The affected vehicles are among their most popular and profitable. The Ford plant makes the Bronco, a rugged sport utility vehicle, and is preparing to make a new version of the Ranger pickup. Jeep makes its Gladiator and Wrangler models in Toledo. The G.M. plant produces the Chevrolet Colorado and GMC Canyon pickups.The U.A.W.’s president, Shawn Fain, said the union could extend the strike to additional plants if the talks failed to produce an agreement. “That will supercharge the leverage we have in negotiations, and will create confusion for the companies,” he said in a video streamed on Facebook on Thursday night.Mr. Fain joined workers outside the Ford plant in Wayne after the strike began at midnight. The union broke off discussions with the companies for a day but said it expected the talks to resume on Saturday.The union has demanded wage increases of 40 percent over the next four years, roughly the same pay gains the chief executives of the three companies have seen over the last four years.A U.A.W. member who isn’t on strike showed support for the walkout at the Wayne plant, which produces the Bronco sport utility vehicle and is preparing to make a new version of the Ranger pickup. Among its other demands, the union wants to end a pay scale where new hires make about a third less than the veteran wage of $32 an hour and have to work eight years before reaching the top of the pay scale. It also wants the companies to pay for health insurance for retirees, offer more paid time off and provide pensions for workers who now have only 401(k) savings accounts for retirement.The companies have offered wage increases of roughly 20 percent but have denied most of the union’s other wishes.At the Ford plant, several strikers said a raise of 30 percent or more was needed to make up for concessions that the union had to make in previous years to help the automakers survive the 2007-8 financial crisis.Jason Vinson, 42, a forklift driver, started as a temporary worker in 2007 making about $17 an hour, then worked his way up to $25 until he was laid off. When he was rehired in 2012, he had to start over at $17 an hour, he said.“I had to get used to it, just pay the necessities,” he said with a shrug. Now he earns $32 an hour, he said, but thinks a substantial raise is warranted because of the profits his plant generates and the sacrifices he made in the past.The strikers, many wearing red T-shirts, waved placards and acknowledged honks of support from passing motorists. The picketing is being conducted in six-hour shifts; the plan is for union members to take on one shift per week.Drawing on a strike fund of $825 million, the union will pay the striking workers $500 a week and cover their health insurance premium. That helps, but still puts some workers in a pinch.The union is demanding 40 percent raises over the next four years.Lisa Bell at the Ford plant in Wayne.“I’m getting rid of my cable TV,” said Diana Osborne, 42, an assembly worker who has worked for Ford for 16 years. And her 18-year old daughter, who just enlisted in the National Guard, has offered to lend her money if things get really tight.Mr. Cornett, the team leader in axle assembly, makes $32 an hour but said he fretted about sending his son to college. If he works 40 hour a week, he will earn about $67,000 a year. “There’s college, plus property taxes are going up, the price of gas is through the roof,” he lamented.Aside from a raise, the thing he wants is an end to the tiered wage system, under which newer workers and veterans are paid on different scales, saying it’s “disheartening” seeing colleagues doing the same work while making $22 or $24 an hour.“We all labor hard,” he said. “You have a precise amount of time to do your job on the line, and our jobs are timed to the second. When the line starts, it doesn’t stop until we go on break. A lot of new hires come in and they have aches and pains, the same aches and pains that I have, so they should get paid the same as me.” More

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    Will Restart of Student Loan Payments Be the Last Straw for Consumers?

    Americans have continued spending despite dwindling savings and inflation. But retailers worry resuming loan payments could push some over the edge.Mykail James has a plan for when payments on her roughly $75,000 in student loans restart next month. She’ll cut back on her “fun budget” — money reserved for travel and concerts — and she expects to limit her holiday spending.“With the holidays coming up — I have a really big family — we will definitely be scaling back how much we’re spending on Christmas and how many things we can afford,” Ms. James said. “It’s just going to be a tighter income overall.”In October, roughly 27 million borrowers like Ms. James will once again be on the hook for repaying their federal student loans after a three-year hiatus. President Biden tried to use his executive powers to forgive about $400 billion in student debt last year, but the Supreme Court overruled that decision in June, and payments kick in again in October.Now, there are big questions about how those people — many of whom had expected to have at least some of their debt erased — may change their spending habits as they budget for student loan payments again. It could crimp the economy if a large share of consumers cut back simultaneously, especially because the resumption in payments comes just as the retail and hospitality industry begin to eye the crucial holiday shopping season.Most economists think that while the hit could be substantial, it will not be so big that it would plunge America into a recession. Goldman Sachs analysts expect renewed student loan payments to cost households about $70 billion per year. That would probably be enough to subtract 0.8 percentage points from consumer spending growth in the fourth quarter, helping to slow it to 1.4 percent, they estimate.Yet major uncertainties remain. Such estimates of just how big the drag will be are rough at best, it is unclear when exactly it will bite and economists are unsure what it will do to consumer confidence. There are factors that could make the impact smaller: The Biden administration has taken steps to ease the pain, allowing for people with lower incomes to repay their loans more slowly and creating a one-year grace period in which missed payments will not be reported to credit rating agencies.But the student loan payments will also restart at the same time consumers face a number of other headwinds, including shrinking savings piles, a cooler job market and higher price levels after two years of rapid inflation. It could also coincide with major strikes — Hollywood actors and writers have been locked in a work stoppage all summer, and the United Auto Workers began a targeted strike on Friday, one that economists warn could be disruptive if it lasts. Adding another source of looming uncertainty, Congress could fail to reach a funding agreement by the end of this month, forcing a government shutdown.Retailers have begun to publicly fret that the resumption of student loan payments could collide with those other developments, pushing their shoppers closer to a breaking point. Executives from companies like Walmart, Macy’s, Best Buy and Gap have all warned analysts and investors that student loan payments may put pressure on shoppers’ budgets, eating into some of their sales in the process.“I don’t think we have a very good grasp” on how the hit to consumers will play out, said Julia Coronado, the founder of MacroPolicy Perspectives, a research firm. “It’s still very unclear exactly what the impact will be.”Consumers have, so far, been surprisingly resilient in the face of rapid inflation, higher Federal Reserve interest rates and a gradually cooling economy.Retail sales came in stronger than many economists had expected in August, data released Thursday showed. Companies have regularly predicted a pullback that has been more modest than expected, as still-low unemployment and decent pay gains have proved enough to buoy shoppers.But some companies worry that student loans could pile on — finally cracking the American consumer.Marc Rosen, the chief executive of J.C. Penney said, “I do think that student loans are going to have an impact.”Gene J. Puskar/Associated PressThe resumption of student loan payments for a retailer like J.C. Penney, which caters to middle-income consumers, would be the latest, unwelcome squeeze on their budgets. Their core customer makes an annual income of $55,000 to $75,000 and has had their monthly household expenses increase by $700 from two years ago. The department-store chain said 17 percent of its credit card customers have student loans.“I do think that student loans are going to have an impact,” Marc Rosen, the chief executive of J.C. Penney, said in an interview. “It’s another thing that comes into that family that puts another stress on their budget and, again, brings back trade-offs, forces them to make other trade-offs.”Ms. James is among the many American consumers expecting to make tough decisions. The 27-year-old, who works in aerospace defense and whose parents owe additional student loans on her behalf, said she had been spending hours doing research on her options for debt relief. She’s even contemplating a job switch to the public sector, which might require a pay cut but offers a clearer path to loan forgiveness.In addition to cutting back on travel and concerts, she plans to work more on her side jobs to earn extra cash. In the past, she’s driven for UberEats and Instacart. (She said she would also continue expanding her financial education business.)Phil Esempio, a 65-year-old high school chemistry and biology teacher in Nazareth, Pa., who owes around $150,000 in student loans, also expects to rein in his budget. Coming out of the pandemic, he excitedly returned to attending live shows in places like New York City — 78 concerts last year — and eating out while he’s there with his friends.But Mr. Esempio said that his period of big spending might have been an overreaction to the end of the pandemic. As the restart of student loan payments looms, “a lot of that is being throttled back,” he said. He expects to make it to 35 shows this year. He thinks he’ll have to start paying $1,100 a month on his federal loans, which is equivalent to what he’s been paying for his private loans.If other consumers behave similarly, it could come as an unpleasant surprise to companies including Live Nation, which owns Ticketmaster. Live Nation executives on a recent earnings call predicted that people’s excitement for live events would outweigh any additional financial burdens.Still, it is possible that other retailers are being overly glum, given the Biden policies and a few other factors that could help to limit the impact of student loans restarting. In fact, Alec Phillips, a Goldman Sachs economist, said that he thought his projection for a $70 billion annual cost from the payment restart was probably pessimistic.“I don’t think that there’s a scenario where it turns out to be substantially worse,” Mr. Phillips said.Among the factors that could limit the hit, borrowers may enroll in a new income-based repayment program offered by the administration, which would decrease monthly payments for people earning low and moderate incomes. If everyone who is eligible did so, it could reduce student loan payments by around $14 billion per year, Mr. Phillips estimates.Supporters of student debt forgiveness demonstrated outside the Supreme Court in June.Olivier Douliery/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesAnd some borrowers may simply not pay, at least for a while. Because missing payments will not be reported to credit reporting agencies for a year — the so called “on-ramp” period — households have wiggle room, said Constantine Yannelis, an economist at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business.Finally, debt holders are more heavily middle- and high-earning workers. Those people may have more budgetary leeway to help deal with the renewed payments, Mr. Phillips said.That is not to say that no groups will suffer. Many low-income people do have outstanding balances, just smaller ones, and Black borrowers in particular hold an outsize chunk of student debt. And the hit could come at a moment when some household budgets are already coming under stress amid high prices and high interest rates. Delinquencies on credit cards have recently jumped back above their levels from before the pandemic.The result may be a painful strain on some families — but a more muted one for the economy as a whole.The upshot is that “it will matter economically,” Mr. Yannelis said of the student loan resumption. “It is most likely not going to be huge, though, and it’s not likely to be the type of thing that would tip us into recession.” More

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    What Retail Sales and Other Data Say About China’s Economy

    Consumers are spending a little more, but apartment prices and the pace of construction keep falling.China’s trains, planes, stores and beaches were a little fuller last month than a year ago, and the pace of activity picked up at factories, particularly those making mobile phones and semiconductors.A batch of numbers released on Friday by China’s National Bureau of Statistics showed a modest improvement in the country’s overall retail sales and industrial production during August. A series of small steps taken by the government over the summer, including two rounds of interest rate cuts, seems to be yielding a slightly better-than-expected improvement in the country’s economy.“The national economy has accelerated its recovery, production and supply have increased steadily, market demand has gradually improved,” Fu Linghui, China’s director of national economic statistics, said at a news conference.But many foreign economists were more guarded.“Some may be of the view that China’s economy has already bottomed out, but we remain cautious,” said a research note from Nomura, a Japanese bank.Real estate remains a persistent risk.The broad troubles of China’s real estate sector continue to cast a long shadow over the country’s economic prospects. Property investment plummeted nearly a fifth in August from the same month a year ago, an even steeper decline than in July.Construction sites around China appear visibly less busy, although activity has not stopped entirely and tower cranes still dot the skyline.Construction of new apartment towers has faltered because of falling apartment prices.Based on data released on Friday for prices of new apartments in 70 large and medium-sized cities across China, Goldman Sachs calculated that prices were falling in August at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.9 percent, compared with 2.6 percent in July.Construction sites around China appear visibly less busy, although activity has not stopped entirely and construction cranes still dot the skyline.Qilai Shen for The New York TimesThe statistics for new apartments considerably understate the speed and extent of price declines, however, as local governments have put heavy pressure on developers not to cut prices.Prices of existing homes in 100 cities across China fell an average of 14 percent by early August from their peak two years earlier, according to the Beike Research Institute, a Tianjin research firm. Rents have fallen 5 percent.Construction and related activities, including public works projects, make up at least a quarter of the Chinese economy. The government has tried to offset the plunge in apartment construction by demanding that already deeply indebted local and provincial governments undertake a debt-fueled wave of large projects, including new subways, municipal water systems, highways, public parks, high-speed rail lines and other infrastructure.Banks are being squeezed.Loans that China’s banks have made to property developers, dozens of which have defaulted on debt payments, are in trouble. So are loans to local governments and their financial affiliates involved in real estate. Banks are allowed to demand immediate repayment if work on a construction project has stopped, but they are reluctant to do so. Demand for new real estate loans remains weak.The central bank, the People’s Bank of China, announced on Thursday that it was freeing banks to set aside smaller reserves and start extending more credit. The move was widely seen as intended to accommodate an upcoming large batch of bond issuance by local and provincial governments to pay for their infrastructure projects.Investment in fixed assets was held back by property woes.Overall investment in what are known as fixed assets was up 3.2 percent for the first eight months of this year compared to the same months last year — infrastructure spending plus some manufacturing investment offset the property nosedive. The pace through August represented a slowdown from 3.4 percent the prior month.The value of China’s industrial production, a proxy for the activity of factories, rose 4.5 percent in August from a year ago.Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesThe production of semiconductors rose 21.1 percent in August from a year earlier. The government has more heavily subsidized chip-making as the United States has restricted the export to China of a few of the highest-speed computer chips and of the gear to manufacture them.The value of China’s industrial production, a proxy for the activity of factories, rose 4.5 percent in August from a year ago after adjusting for considerable deflation in wholesale prices for factory goods over the past year. The increase had been 3.7 percent in July.Consumers are changing how they spend.Retail sales were up 4.6 percent in August from the same month last year, as rising energy prices likely pushed up retail sales, Nomura said.A main reason that retail sales rebounded was because a year ago, people in China were still living under stringent “zero Covid” measures that restricted their activity.Beer and wine production dropped from a year ago while output rose for bottled water, carried by many Chinese people during outdoor activities, and production of fruit and vegetable juices climbed sharply. More

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    U.A.W. Goes on Strike at 3 Plants in Midwest

    Workers walked off the job at 3 initial sites in a targeted labor action against Ford, General Motors and Stellantis — the first ever of all three at once.In Detroit, Shawn Fain, president of the United Auto Workers union, announced a strategy on Thursday calling on select facilities to strike in order to “keep the companies guessing.”U.A.W. via ReutersThousands of members of the United Automobile Workers union went on strike Friday at three plants in three Midwestern states in what was the first strike simultaneously affecting all three Detroit automakers.The union and the companies — General Motors, Ford Motor and Stellantis, the parent of Chrysler — remained deadlocked in negotiations over a new collective bargaining agreement when the current contract expired at 11:59 p.m. on Thursday.As the deadline neared, workers started to fan out at the targeted plants — in Michigan, Missouri and Ohio — to protest.At the outset, the strike will idle one plant owned by each automaker, and could force the automakers to halt production at other locations, shaking local economies in factory towns across the Midwest.“We are using a new strategy,” the union’s president, Shawn Fain, said in a video streamed via Facebook on Thursday night. “We are calling on select locals to stand up and go out on strike.”In the 88 years since it was founded, the union has called strikes aimed at a single automaker, and a handful have halted production for several weeks. G.M. plants were idle for 40 days in 2019 before the company and the union agreed on a new contract.The plants designated for walkouts on Friday represent only a small portion of all the unionized factories of G.M., Ford and Stellantis and of those companies’ 150,000 U.A.W. members.Where Auto Workers Are Walking Out More