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    Debt Limit Talks Resume After Republicans Briefly Hit Pause

    Republicans returned to the negotiating table on Friday hours after walking out, though talks lasted only about an hour.Negotiations between top White House and Republican congressional officials over a deal to raise the debt limit resumed on Friday just hours after House G.O.P. leaders said it was time to “press pause,” complaining that President Biden’s team was being unreasonable and that no progress could be made.The abrupt turn reflected the unwieldy state of negotiations over a bipartisan deal to avert a debt default that could occur as soon as June 1. Speaker Kevin McCarthy on Friday evening declared the talks were back on after venting frustration with the White House earlier in the day. Negotiations then broke up again Friday night roughly an hour after they resumed, and it was unclear when negotiators planned to meet again.The hourlong meeting capped a day of whiplash on Capitol Hill, as negotiators searching for a resolution to avoiding the first default in the nation’s history repeatedly restarted and ended discussions, and Republicans showed signs of increasing exasperation around negotiations on spending caps.“It’s very frustrating if they want to come into the room and think we’re going to spend more money next year than we did this year,” Mr. McCarthy, a California Republican, said on Fox Business on Friday evening, as he announced that his deputies would return to the negotiating table. “That’s not right, and that’s not going to happen.”Earlier in the day, Mr. McCarthy and one of his top advisers had declared that they were halting negotiations, saying that White House officials were refusing to budge on spending cuts. “We’ve got to get movement by the White House, and we don’t have any movement,” Mr. McCarthy said.His comments marked a departure from his tone just a day earlier, when he told reporters that he could see a path to reaching a deal in principle as early as the weekend.Still, the return to the negotiating table on Friday night underscored the mounting sense of urgency to find a resolution as Congress runs out of time to avoid the first default in the nation’s history, and the economic calamity that could follow.Once a deal is in hand, it will take time to translate it into legislation and pass it through Congress for Mr. Biden’s signature. Mr. McCarthy has promised his conference that he will give lawmakers 72 hours to read the bill before they vote on it.Republicans hinted that a major source of their frustration was how strictly to cap federal spending. The bill that House Republicans passed last month would raise the nation’s borrowing limit into next year in exchange for freezing spending at last year’s levels for a decade — which would lead to cuts of an average of 18 percent.The bill is a dead letter in the Democratic-controlled Senate, but the ultraconservative House Freedom Caucus declared on Thursday that Republicans should insist that it pass as is.“No more discussion on watering it down,” the group said in a tweet. “Period.”White House officials, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss private negotiations, acknowledged that there were significant differences between the parties, including around Mr. McCarthy’s stance on capping federal spending.Former President Donald J. Trump also weighed in on Friday on Truth Social, the social media website he founded, declaring that Republicans should not make a deal on the debt ceiling unless they get everything they want. “DO NOT FOLD!!!” he wrote.Negotiators were at odds over a handful of issues, including the extent to which a possible deal would include tougher work requirements for social safety net programs — a proposal that has drawn a backlash from progressive Democrats — and the length of any debt-limit extension.Conservatives in the House G.O.P. conference had grown increasingly concerned in recent days that Mr. McCarthy would agree to a deal freezing spending at current levels, rather than at last year’s levels, and would not lock in the kind of spending cuts for which they have long agitated.Zolan Kanno-Youngs More

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    If Debt Ceiling Standoff Can’t Be Resolved, Both Parties Will Share the Blame

    While each party tries to blame the other for the crisis, some acknowledge that they would both share responsibility for a default.Is it the Biden default? Or the Republican Default on America?Even as negotiators push forward with halting talks to resolve the federal debt-ceiling standoff, members of both parties are positioning themselves to try to dodge the blame for the economic fallout if things go south. Democrats lambaste Republicans for taking the debt ceiling hostage to appease “extreme MAGA” conservatives bent on shrinking government spending. Republicans hit Democrats for waiting too long to open talks and not taking G.O.P. demands seriously.But deep down — and in some cases not so deep — officials in both parties know they are all going to pay if they don’t get a deal, the government defaults and Americans lose money and jobs and confidence about their financial well-being and future.“I would hate to be the politician trying to explain to people when the economy is in the toilet that it’s not my fault, it’s their fault,” said Senator Lindsey Graham, Republican of South Carolina. “Yeah, that ain’t going to work. They will flush us all.”Polls have suggested Mr. Graham’s view is correct. A Washington Post-ABC News Poll released earlier this month shows that the public is divided about who will bear the blame, with a significant chunk of independents saying the two sides should share it equally.And some on Capitol Hill say the political backlash will be well deserved if Congress and the White House manage to mangle the situation so badly that public officials careen into a completely avoidable crisis and send both the economy and the retirement accounts of millions of Americans reeling.“I can’t comprehend that anyone who had the ability to prevent this much damage to our country, our economy and our world standing would allow that to happen,” said Senator Joe Manchin III, Democrat of West Virginia, who had been among those pressing his party to engage in negotiations earlier. “It would be absolutely reprehensible. Everyone should get hammered.”But those likely reverberations haven’t yet motivated negotiators to come to an agreement and clear the way for an economic sigh of relief. Representative Garret Graves of Louisiana, the point man for House Republicans in the talks, abruptly exited a Friday negotiating session with administration representatives in the Capitol, accusing them of being “unreasonable,” and the talks were temporarily suspended. Suddenly, the path to a quick agreement that Speaker Kevin McCarthy had seen on Thursday was newly cluttered with obstacles. By the evening, talks had resumed.Such ups and downs in budget negotiations are fairly standard and can be performative as well as substantive. Both sides need to flex to show their respective forces that they are hanging tough and pushing for all they can get. But there are real differences in the positions of Democrats and Republicans on a host of issues on the bargaining table. A positive outcome is no certainty, despite regular high-level assurances that the United States cannot and will not default in the coming days.Still, should that occur, lawmakers and administration officials would like you to know that they didn’t do it.“Here we are on the brink of a Biden default,” Senator Shelley Moore Capito, Republican of West Virginia, declared this week both in person and via news release, sounding a refrain becoming increasingly popular with Republicans — that this was all Mr. Biden’s doing because he refused to engage with them earlier and allow enough time to work out an agreement.Not so, counter the Democrats. “We find ourselves in the midst of a G.O.P.-manufactured default crisis because House Republicans have chosen to try and hold our economy, our small businesses, everyday Americans hostage to unreasonable ransom demands,” Representative Hakeem Jeffries, Democrat of New York and the minority leader, said.Republicans have a retort. They argue that since they squeezed legislation through the House last month that would raise the debt limit and enact spending cuts, they have bragging rights as well as immunity from any criticism because they are the only ones who have acted thus far — though it was widely known the bill could never pass the Democratic-majority Senate.“I don’t know how we own it if we raised the debt limit,” Mr. McCarthy said at the White House when asked if he was ready to face the consequences for a default. His colleagues share his view.“In my district I don’t think it would be a huge problem,” said Representative Tom Cole, Republican of Oklahoma. “I did vote to raise the debt ceiling. Show me one person on the other side who did.”In addition, Republicans know it is traditionally the president who gets credit or fault for the state of the economy even if circumstances are well beyond control of the executive branch.Democrats scoff at the Republican claims. Senator Chuck Schumer, the New York Democrat and majority leader, dubbed the House legislation the Default on America Act, to try to capture both its impact and its dead-on-arrival status in the Senate. He and his fellow Democrats say they refuse to reward Republicans for what they view as highly irresponsible actions that are putting the nation’s economy at risk — even though both parties have used the debt limit for bargaining leverage over the years.“From the beginning, Democrats have said — I have said — that this process demands bipartisanship,” Mr. Schumer said this week. “It’s how we avoided default under President Trump. It’s how we have avoided default under President Biden, and it’s how we should avoid default this time too. Brinkmanship, hiding plans, hostage-taking — none of that will move us closer to a solution.”The two parties can continue to trade shots. But until they trade negotiating positions they can come to terms on, the threat of default hangs over Washington and the nation. And if that happens, those involved may find that the public won’t distinguish between who did or said what when, but will hold them all accountable. More

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    In a Sharp Reversal, Biden Opens a Path for Ukraine to Get Fighter Jets

    The president told allied leaders that he would allow Ukrainian pilots to be trained on American-made F-16s, and is prepared to approve other countries’ transferring the jets to Ukraine.President Biden told U.S. allies on Friday that he would allow Ukrainian pilots to be trained on American-made F-16 fighter jets, several U.S. officials said, adding that the president is prepared to let other countries give F-16s to Ukraine — a major upgrade of the Ukrainian military and a sharp reversal.Since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine 15 months ago, officials in Kyiv have pleaded for advanced warplanes to overcome Russian air superiority. But Mr. Biden has resisted, concerned that the jets could be used to hit targets deep inside Russia, and prompt the Kremlin to escalate the conflict. Pentagon officials have said that other weapons, especially air defenses, were needed more urgently, and the high cost of the F-16s could squeeze out other matériel.But several European countries that belong to the NATO alliance and have F-16s in their arsenals have called for an international effort to provide the training and transfer of their jets to Ukraine. Doing so would require American permission, because the weapons were first sold to them by the United States. Though not the most advanced U.S. fighter, the F-16 carries powerful radar that can spot targets from hundreds of miles away and modern missiles and other technology that American officials do not want duplicated or falling into hostile hands.Mr. Biden told other leaders of the Group of 7 nations, the world’s wealthiest democracies, of his decision on pilot training, opening a path to supplying Ukraine with fighter jets, at their summit meeting in Hiroshima, Japan, according to several officials who requested anonymity to speak candidly about sensitive deliberations.They said the United States and its allies would discuss in the coming months how to supply Kyiv with the jets themselves, and one senior administration official said the White House was prepared to approve that step. The United States is not expected, at least under current plans, to send its own F-16s.A group of F-16s flying over Washington, in March. Ukraine has said it needs the jets to compete effectively with Russia’s air force.Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images“I welcome the historic decision of the United States and @POTUS to support an international fighter jet coalition. This will greatly enhance our army in the sky,” President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine, who is expected to address the Group of 7 this weekend, wrote on Twitter.In a joint statement, the allied leaders said they were committed “to continuing our security assistance to Ukraine as it defends itself against Russia’s aggression, tailoring our support to Ukraine’s needs.” The group vowed to provide “financial, humanitarian, military and diplomatic support Ukraine requires for as long as it takes.”Earlier on Friday, Mr. Zelensky had addressed an Arab League summit in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, where he challenged the neutral stance many Arab countries have adopted on the war and implored them to help save Ukrainians “from the cages of Russian prisons.” “Unfortunately there are some in the world, and here among you, who turn a blind eye to those cages and illegal annexations,” he said. “I am here so that everyone can take an honest look, no matter how hard the Russians try to influence.”Western officials said Mr. Zelensky planned to travel to Hiroshima this weekend to attend the summit meeting. Ukrainian officials gave conflicting accounts, however, with some saying he would appear in person and others saying he would speak to the leaders by video link. The vagueness appears to reflect security concerns as Mr. Zelensky moves across the globe seeking aid and arms; he was in several European countries last week, as well as Saudi Arabia on Friday.Ukraine is expected to launch a major counteroffensive soon, hoping to retake more territory seized by Russia in the war’s early days. Any delivery of fighter jets would be months away, too late to affect that plan.The Group of 7 leaders in Hiroshima spent much of the day discussing the coming counteroffensive and its chances of forcing Russia to the negotiating table to discuss some form of an armistice that would stop the fighting, even if it did not resolve the central issues of the war.They are also poised to unveil a slew of new sanctions and export controls to clamp down further on the Kremlin’s ability to fund the war, and to crack down on third-party nations that have been secretly providing Russia with banned technologies that can be used in weapons systems.Earlier on Friday, President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine told a gathering of the Arab League not to “turn a blind eye” to the atrocities committed by the Russian forces.Saudi Press Agency/EPA, via ShutterstockThe allies appear determined to demonstrate unified resolve to support Ukraine at a time when President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia seems to be betting that their interest and commitment will wane.Mr. Biden’s changed stance on F-16s is his latest about-face on allowing Ukraine to field advanced weapons, including HIMARS rocket launchers, Patriot air defense missile systems and Abrams tanks. In each case, the president at first refused, only to change his mind under pressure from European allies.Top Pentagon officials have consistently said that they do not believe Ukraine needs F-16s at this stage of the conflict.Celeste A. Wallander, the assistant secretary of defense for international security affairs, told the House Armed Services Committee last month that advanced Western fighter aircraft ranked only “about eighth” on Ukraine’s priority list. She said officials have focused on resources with the “highest priority capabilities, and that has been air defense, artillery and armor.”But the push for F-16s by Ukraine and its supporters in Congress was reinforced this week when Yahoo News reported that an internal U.S. Air Force assessment concluded it would take only four months to train Ukrainian pilots to operate the fighters, a far shorter time frame than Pentagon officials had cited previously.The document, which a senior Air Force official confirmed and said was shared with several NATO allies who fly F-16s, contained a detailed assessment undertaken in late February and early March at Morris Air National Guard Base in Tucson, Ariz. Two Ukrainian pilots were given “no formal training” on the F-16, according to the assessment, other than a brief familiarization, and then were tested on a flight simulator for several hours.A Ukrainian soldier passes a crater caused by Russian bombardment in the village of Heorhiivka in eastern Ukraine. Kyiv says F-16s would greatly increase their forces’ ability to defend against aerial attacks.Finbarr O’Reilly for The New York TimesAn appearance by Mr. Zelensky at the Group of 7 would be a strong rebuff to Mr. Putin and a reminder of how thoroughly relations with Russia have deteriorated. Thirty years ago, President Clinton met with Boris Yeltsin, then the president of Russia, in Japan to begin to map the integration of a post-Soviet Russia into the world economy, as Mr. Clinton promised to seek the repeal of Cold War sanctions. Five years later, Russia joined what became the Group of 8.Now all that has been reversed. After Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, it was suspended from the group, and left it entirely three years later. Russia’s economy is struggling under sanctions imposed since the invasion last year, particularly the price cap on its oil sales, and more are coming.Britain on Friday said it was implementing a ban on Russian diamonds, copper, aluminum and nickel. Australia also said on Friday it was imposing new financial sanctions targeting 21 entities and three individuals, including Russia’s largest gold company, petroleum and steel companies and defense entities.The United States also rolled out a “substantial package” of restrictions, including cutting off 70 more firms from American exports and adding more than 200 individuals and entities to its sanctions list. The measures are meant to crack down on people or companies that are helping Moscow to evade existing sanctions.The fresh round of penalties “will further tighten the vise on Putin’s ability to wage his barbaric invasion and will advance our global efforts to cut off Russian attempts to evade sanctions,” Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen said in a statement on Friday.Until now, the Ukraine war has seemed far away from daily life in Moscow, but Russian leaders are growing increasingly nervous about the repercussions of a promised Ukrainian counteroffensive.Natalia Kolesnikova/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesThe United States will broaden sanctions to cover more corners of the Russian economy, striking at its avenues to acquire semiconductors and other high-tech goods from Group of 7 nations, which American officials said Friday are critical to Russia’s ability to build weapons. Antony J. Blinken, the secretary of state, said in a release that the new sanctions would take aim at components Russia needs to build a drone that is currently being deployed in Ukraine.The new penalties also seek to squeeze Russia’s ability to drill for oil and gas, and to crimp venture capitalists and financial services firms that American officials said were aiding sanctioned Russian businesses.Goods that Western businesses are now prohibited from selling to Russian buyers often reach them through middlemen — changing hands, legal jurisdictions and free-trade zones multiple times. The trade is hard to track and harder to enforce, especially for “dual use” goods that have both civilian and military applications.With many of Russia’s other revenue streams squeezed by previous rounds of sanctions, officials have homed in on diamonds as a lucrative trade still providing Moscow with funding for its war. Russia is the world’s largest supplier of small diamonds, exporting more than $4.5 billion in 2021, making the gem its top non-energy export by value. More

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    G7 Countries Borrow China’s Economic Strategy

    Wealthy democracies rev up an effort to spend trillions on a new climate-friendly energy economy, while stealing away some of China’s manufacturing power.Midway through his face-to-face meeting with President Biden in Indonesia last fall, the Chinese leader, Xi Jinping, offered an unsolicited warning.Mr. Biden had in the preceding months signed a series of laws aimed at supercharging America’s industrial capacity and imposed new limits on the export of technology to China, in hopes of dominating the race for advanced energy technologies that could help fight climate change. For months, he and his aides had worked to recruit allied countries to impose their own restrictions on sending technology to China.The effort echoed the sort of industrial policy that China had employed to become the world’s manufacturing leader. In Bali, Mr. Xi urged Mr. Biden to abandon it.The president was not persuaded. Mr. Xi’s protests only further convinced Mr. Biden that America’s new industrial approach was the right one, according to a person familiar with the exchange.As Mr. Biden and fellow leaders of the Group of 7 nations meet this weekend in Hiroshima, Japan, a centerpiece of their discussions will be how to rapidly accelerate what has become an internationally coordinated round of vast public investment. For these wealthy democracies, the goal is both to reduce their reliance on Chinese manufacturing and to help their own companies compete in a new energy economy.Mr. Biden’s legislative agenda, including bills focused on semiconductors, infrastructure and low-emission energy sources, has begun to spur what could be trillions of dollars in government and private investment in American industrial capacity. That includes subsidies for electric vehicles, batteries, wind farms, solar plants and much more.The spending — the United States’ most significant intervention in industrial policy in decades — has galvanized many of America’s top allies in Europe and Asia, including key leaders of the Group of 7. European nations, South Korea, Japan, Canada and others are pushing for increased access to America’s clean-energy subsidies, while launching companion efforts of their own.“This clean-tech race is an opportunity to go faster and further, together,” Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, said after an economy-themed meeting at the Group of 7 summit on Friday.“Now that the G7 are in this race together, our competition should create additional manufacturing capacity and not come at each other’s expense,” she said.Mr. Biden touring a semiconductor manufacturer in Durham, N.C., in March.Al Drago for The New York TimesMr. Biden and his Group of 7 counterparts have embarked on a project with two ambitious goals: to accelerate demand, even by decades, for the technologies needed to reduce emissions and fight climate change, and to give workers in the United States and in allied countries an advantage over Chinese workers in meeting that demand.Much of that project has roared to life since the G7 leaders met last year in the German Alps. The wave of recent Group of 7 actions on supply chains, semiconductors and other measures to counter China is based on “economic security, national security and energy security,” Rahm Emanuel, the U.S. ambassador to Japan, told reporters this week in Tokyo.He added: “This is an inflection point for a new and more relevant G7.”Mr. Emanuel said the effort reflected a growing impatience among Group of 7 leaders with what they call Beijing’s use of economic measures to punish and deter behavior by foreign governments and companies that China’s officials do not like.But more than anything, the shift has been fueled by urgency over climate action and by two laws Mr. Biden signed last summer: a bipartisan bill to shower the semiconductor industry with tens of billions of dollars in government subsidies, and the climate provisions of the so-called Inflation Reduction Act, which companies have jumped to cash in on.Those bills have spurred a wave of newly announced battery plants, solar panel factories and other projects. They have also set off an international subsidy race, which has evolved after being deeply contentious in the immediate aftermath of the signing of the climate law.The lucrative U.S. supports for clean energy and semiconductors — along with stricter requirements for companies and government agencies to buy U.S.-made steel, vehicles and equipment — have put unwelcome pressure on competing industries in allied countries.Workers at a solar energy parts and batteries factory in Suqian, China, in February.Alex Plavevski/EPA, via ShutterstockSome of those concerns have been quelled in recent months. The United States signed a deal with Japan in March that will allow battery materials made in Japan to qualify for the benefits of the Inflation Reduction Act. The European Union is pursuing a similar agreement, and has proposed its own $270 billion program to subsidize green industries. Canada has passed its own version of the Biden climate law, and Britain, Indonesia and other countries are angling for their own critical mineral deals.Administration officials say once-rankled allies have bought into the potential benefits of a concerted wealthy-democracy industrial strategy.At the Group of 7 meeting, “you will see a degree of convergence on this that, from our perspective, can continue the conversion of the Inflation Reduction Act from a source of friction into a source of cooperation and strength between the United States and our G7 partners,” Jake Sullivan, the national security adviser, told reporters on Air Force One as Mr. Biden flew to Japan.Some Group of 7 officials say the alliance has much more work to do to ensure that fast-growing economies like India benefit from the increased investments in a new energy economy. “It is important that the acceleration that is going to be created by this doesn’t disincentivize investment around the world,” Kirsten Hillman, the Canadian ambassador to the United States, said in an interview.One country they don’t want to see benefit is China. The United States has issued sweeping restrictions on China’s ability to access American technology, namely advanced chips and the machinery used to make them. And it has leaned on its allies as it tries to enforce global restrictions on sharing technology with Russia, as well as China. All of those efforts are meant to hinder China’s continued development in advanced manufacturing.Biden officials have urged allied countries not to step in to supply China with chips and other products it can no longer get from the United States. The United States is also weighing further restrictions on certain kinds of Chinese chip technology, including a likely ban on venture capital investments that U.S. officials are expected to discuss with their counterparts in Hiroshima.Although many of the Group of 7 governments agree that China poses an increasing economic and security threat, there is little consensus about what to do about it.Mr. Biden with Xi Jinping, China’s leader, in Bali, Indonesia, in November.Doug Mills/The New York TimesJapanese officials have been relatively eager to discuss coordinated responses to economic coercion from China, following Beijing’s move to cut Japan off from a supply of rare earth minerals during a clash more than a decade ago.European officials, by contrast, have been more divided on whether to risk close and lucrative business ties with China. Some, like the French president, Emmanuel Macron, have pushed back on U.S. plans to decouple supply chains with China.Ms. von der Leyen, the European Commission president, has been pushing for a “de-risking” of relations with China that involves recognizing China’s growing economic and security ambitions while reducing, in targeted ways, European dependence on China for its industrial and defense base. European officials said in Hiroshima that they had been pleased to see American leaders moving more toward their approach, at least rhetorically.Still, the allies’ industrial policy push threatens to complicate already difficult relations with China. Consulting and advisory firms with foreign ties have been subject to raids, detainments and arrests in China in recent months. Chinese officials have made clear that they see export controls as a threat. Adopting the phase American officials use to criticize Beijing, the Chinese Embassy in Washington warned the Group of 7 this week against what it called “economic coercion.”Mr. Xi issued a similar rebuke to Mr. Biden in Bali last fall. He pointed to the late 1950s, when the Soviet Union withdrew support for the Chinese nuclear program.China’s nuclear research continued, Mr. Xi said, and four years later, it detonated its first atomic bomb. More

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    U.S. Semiconductor Boom Faces a Worker Shortage

    Strengthened by billions of federal dollars, semiconductor companies plan to create thousands of jobs. But officials say there might not be enough people to fill them.Maxon Wille, an 18-year-old in Surprise, Ariz., was driving toward Interstate 17 last year when he noticed a massive construction site: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company at work on its new factory in Phoenix.A few weeks later, as he was watching YouTube, an advertisement popped up for a local community college’s 10-day program that trains people to become semiconductor technicians. He graduated from the course this month and now hopes to work at the plant once it opens.“I can see this being the next big thing,” Mr. Wille said.Semiconductor manufacturers say they will need to attract more workers like Mr. Wille to staff the plants that are being built across the United States. America is on the cusp of a semiconductor manufacturing boom, strengthened by billions of dollars that the federal government is funneling into the sector. President Biden had said the funding will create thousands of well-paying jobs, but one question looms large: Will there be enough workers to fill them?“My biggest fear is investing in all this infrastructure and not having the people to work there,” said Shari Liss, the executive director of the SEMI Foundation, a nonprofit arm of SEMI, an association that represents electronics manufacturing companies. “The impact could be really substantial if we don’t figure out how to create excitement and interest in this industry.”Lawmakers passed the 2022 CHIPS Act with lofty ambitions to remake the United States into a semiconductor powerhouse, in part to reduce America’s reliance on foreign nations for the tiny chips that power everything from dishwashers to computers to cars. The law included $39 billion to fund the construction of new and expanded semiconductor facilities, and manufacturers that want a slice of the subsidies have already announced expansions across the country.More than 50 new facility projects have been announced since the CHIPS Act was introduced, and private companies have pledged more than $210 billion in investments, according to the Semiconductor Industry Association.But that investment has run headfirst into the tightest labor market in years, with employers across the country struggling to find workers. Semiconductor manufacturers have long found it difficult to hire workers because of a lack of awareness of the industry and too few students entering relevant academic fields. Company officials say they expect it to become even more difficult to hire for a range of critical positions, including the construction workers building the plants, the technicians operating equipment and engineers designing chips.The U.S. semiconductor industry could face a shortage of about 70,000 to 90,000 workers over the next few years, according to a Deloitte report. McKinsey has also projected a shortfall of about 300,000 engineers and 90,000 skilled technicians in the United States by 2030.Semiconductor manufacturers have struggled to hire more employees, in part because, officials say, there are not enough skilled workers and they have to compete with big technology firms for engineers. Many students who graduate with advanced engineering degrees in the United States were born abroad, and immigration rules make it challenging to obtain visas to work in the country.Ronnie Chatterji, the White House’s CHIPS implementation coordinator, said that filling the new jobs would be a big challenge, but that he felt confident Americans would want them as they became more aware of the industry’s domestic expansion.“While it hasn’t been the sexiest job opportunity for folks compared to some of the other things that they’re graduating with, it also hasn’t been on the radar,” Mr. Chatterji said. He added that America would be less “prosperous” if companies could increase output but lacked the employees to do so.In an effort to meet the labor demand, the Biden administration said this month that it would create five initial “work force hubs” in cities like Phoenix and Columbus, Ohio, to help train more women, people of color and other underrepresented workers in industries like semiconductor manufacturing.Administration and company officials have also pushed for changes to better retain foreign-born STEM graduates, but immigration remains a controversial topic in Washington, and few are optimistic about reforms.Some industry leaders are looking to technology as an antidote, since automation and artificial intelligence can amplify the output of a single engineer, but companies are mostly putting their faith into training programs. Federal officials have backed that effort and pointed out that funding in the CHIPS Act could be used for work force development.Intel, which announced plans to spend $20 billion on two new chip factories in Arizona and more than $20 billion on a new chip manufacturing complex in Ohio, has invested millions in partnerships with community colleges and universities to train technicians and expand relevant curriculum.Gabriela Cruz Thompson, the director of university research collaboration at Intel Labs, said the company anticipated creating 6,700 jobs over the next five to 10 years. About 70 percent would be for technicians who typically have a two-year degree or certificate.A silicon wafer, a thin material essential for manufacturing semiconductors, at a chip-packaging facility in Santa Clara, Calif.Jim Wilson/The New York TimesShe said that the industry had faced staffing challenges for years, and that she was concerned about the number of “available and talented skilled workers” who could fill all of the new Intel positions.“I am confident,” she said. “But am I fully certain, 100 percent? No.”Micron, which pledged as much as $100 billion over the next two decades or more to build a huge chip factory complex in New York, has also deployed new work force programs, including ones that train veterans and teach middle and high school students about STEM careers through “chip camps.”Bo Machayo, the director of U.S. federal affairs at Micron, said the company anticipated needing roughly 9,000 employees after its full build-out in the region.“We understand that it’s a challenge, but we also look at it as an opportunity,” he said.To be considered for the federal subsidies, manufacturers must submit applications to the Commerce Department that include detailed plans about how they will recruit and retain workers. Firms requesting more than $150 million are expected to provide affordable, high-quality child care.“We don’t think that a company can just post a bunch of jobs online and hope that the right work force shows up,” said Kevin Gallagher, a senior adviser to the commerce secretary.The lack of interest in the industry has been evident at academic institutions. Karl Hirschman, the director of microelectronic engineering at the Rochester Institute of Technology, said the university was “nowhere close” to the maximum enrollment for its microelectronic engineering degree program, which sets up students for semiconductor-related careers. Enrollment averages about 20 new undergraduates each year, compared with more than 200 for the university’s mechanical engineering program.Although students graduating with more popular engineering degrees could work in the semiconductor industry, Mr. Hirschman said, many of them are more aware of and attracted to tech firms like Google and Facebook.“We do not have enough students to fill the need,” he said. “It’s only going to get more challenging.”Community colleges, universities and school districts are creating or expanding programs to attract more students to the industry.In Maricopa County, Ariz., three community colleges have teamed up with Intel to offer a “quick start” program to prepare students to become entry-level technicians in just 10 days. During the four-hour classes, students learn the basics of how chips are made, practice using hand tools and try on the head-to-toe gowns that technicians wear.More than 680 students have enrolled in the program since it began in July, said Leah Palmer, the executive director of the Arizona Advanced Manufacturing Institute at Mesa Community College. The program is free for in-state students who complete it and pass a certification test.In Oregon last year, the Hillsboro School District started a two-year advanced manufacturing apprenticeship program that allows 16- to 18-year-old students to earn high school credit and be paid to work on the manufacturing floors of companies in the semiconductor industry. Five students are participating, and officials hope to add at least three more to the next cohort, said Claudia Rizo, the district’s youth apprenticeship project manager.“Our hope is that students would have a job offer with the companies if they decide to stay full time, but also be open to the possibility of pursuing postsecondary education through college or university,” Ms. Rizo said.Universities are also expanding undergraduate and graduate engineering programs. Purdue started a semiconductor degree program last year, and Syracuse, which has worked with Micron and 20 other institutions to enhance related curriculum, plans to increase its engineering enrollment 50 percent over the next three to five years.Students participated in an event hosted by Micron at Onondaga Community College in Syracuse, N.Y.Benjamin Cleeton for The New York TimesAt Onondaga Community College, near Micron’s build-out in New York, officials will offer a new two-year degree and one-year certificate in electromechanical technology starting this fall. The programs were already underway before Micron’s announcement to build the chip factory complex but would help students gain the qualifications needed to work there, said Timothy Stedman, the college’s dean of natural and applied sciences.Although he felt optimistic, he said interest could be lower than officials hoped. Enrollment in the college’s electrical and mechanical technology programs has noticeably declined from two decades ago because more students have started to view four-year college degrees as the default path.“We’re starting to see the pendulum swing a little bit as people have realized that these are well-paying jobs,” Mr. Stedman said. “But I think there still needs to be a fair amount of work done.”Ana Swanson More

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    How the G7 Oil Price Cap Has Helped Choke Revenue to Russia

    Group of 7 leaders are prepared to celebrate the results of a novel effort to stabilize global oil markets and punish Moscow.In early June, at the behest of the Biden administration, German leaders assembled top economic officials from the Group of 7 nations for a video conference with the goal of striking a major financial blow to Russia.The Americans had been trying, in a series of one-off conversations last year, to sound out their counterparts in Europe, Canada and Japan on an unusual and untested idea. Administration officials wanted to try to cap the price that Moscow could command for every barrel of oil it sold on the world market. Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen had floated the plan a few weeks earlier at a meeting of finance ministers in Bonn, Germany.The reception had been mixed, in part because other countries were not sure how serious the administration was about proceeding. But the call in early June left no doubt: American officials said they were committed to the oil price cap idea and urged everyone else to get on board. At the end of the month, the Group of 7 leaders signed on to the concept.As the Group of 7 prepares to meet again in this week in Hiroshima, Japan, official and market data suggest the untried idea has helped achieve its twin initial goals since the price cap took effect in December. The cap appears to be forcing Russia to sell its oil for less than other major producers, when crude prices are down significantly from their levels immediately after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.Data from Russia and international agencies suggest Moscow’s revenues have dropped, forcing budget choices that administration officials say could be starting to hamper its war effort. Drivers in America and elsewhere are paying far less at the gasoline pump than some analysts feared.Russia’s oil revenues in March were down 43 percent from a year earlier, the International Energy Agency reported last month, even though its total export sales volume had grown. This week, the agency reported that Russian revenues had rebounded slightly but were still down 27 percent from a year ago. The government’s tax receipts from the oil and gas sectors were down by nearly two-thirds from a year ago.Russian officials have been forced to change how they tax oil production in an apparent bid to make up for some of the lost revenues. They also appear to be spending government money to try to start building their own network of ships, insurance companies and other essentials of the oil trade, an effort that European and American officials say is a clear sign of success.“The Russian price cap is working, and working extremely well,” Wally Adeyemo, the deputy Treasury secretary, said in an interview. “The money that they’re spending on building up this ecosystem to support their energy trade is money they can’t spend on building missiles or buying tanks. And what we’re going to continue to do is force Russia to have these types of hard choices.”Some analysts doubt the plan is working nearly as well as administration officials claim, at least when it comes to revenues. They say the most frequently cited data on the prices that Russia receives for its exported oil is unreliable. And they say other data, like customs reports from India, suggests Russian officials may be employing elaborate deception measures to evade the cap and sell crude at prices well above its limit.“I’m concerned the Biden administration’s desperation to claim victory with the price cap is preventing them from actually acknowledging what isn’t working and taking the steps that might actually help them win,” said Steve Cicala, an energy economist at Tufts University who has written about potential evasion under the cap.The price cap was invented as an escape hatch to the financial penalties that the United States, Europe and others announced on Russian oil exports in the immediate aftermath of the invasion. Those penalties included bans preventing wealthy democracies from buying Russian oil on the world market. But early in the war, they essentially backfired. They drove up the cost of all oil globally, regardless of where it was produced. The higher prices delivered record exports revenues to Moscow, while driving American gasoline prices above $5 a gallon and contributing to President Biden’s sagging approval rating.A new round of European sanctions was set to hit Russian oil hard in December. Economists on Wall Street and in the Biden administration warned those penalties could knock oil off the market, sending prices soaring again. So administration officials decided to try to leverage the West’s dominance of the oil shipping trade — including how it is transported and financed — and force a hard bargain on Russia.Oil tankers near the port city of Nakhodka, Russia. Many analysts were concerned that a price cap might prompt Russia to restrict how much oil it pumped and sold. But the country has mostly kept producing at about the same levels it did when the war began.Tatiana Meel/ReutersUnder the plan, Russia could keep selling oil, but if it wanted access to the West’s shipping infrastructure, it had to sell at a sharp discount. In December, European leaders agreed to set the cap at $60 a barrel. They followed with other caps for different types of petroleum products, like diesel.Many analysts were skeptical it could work. A cap that was too punitive had the potential to encourage Russia to severely restrict how much oil it pumps and sells. Such a move could drive crude prices skyward. Alternatively, a cap that was too permissive might have failed to affect Russian oil sales and revenues at all.Neither scenario has happened. Russia announced a modest production cut this spring but has mostly kept producing at about the same levels it did when the war began.Fatih Birol, the executive director of the International Energy Agency, has called the price cap an important “safety valve” and a crucial policy that has forced Russia to sell oil for far less than international benchmark prices. Russian oil now trades for $25 to $35 a barrel less than other oil on the global market, Treasury Department officials estimate.“Russia played the energy card, and it didn’t win,” Mr. Birol wrote in a February report. “Given that energy is the backbone of Russia’s economy, it’s not surprising that its difficulties in this area are leading to wider problems. Its budget deficit is skyrocketing as military spending and subsidies to its population largely exceed its export income.”Biden administration officials say that there is no evidence of widespread evasion by Russia, and that Mr. Cicala’s analysis of Indian customs reports does not account for the rising cost of transporting Russian oil to India, which is embedded in the customs data. A White House official told reporters traveling with Mr. Biden in Hiroshima on Thursday that the Group of 7 leaders would adopt new measures meant to counter price-cap evasion in their meeting this weekend.There is no dispute that the world has avoided what was privately the largest concern for Biden officials last summer: another round of skyrocketing oil prices.American drivers were paying about $3.54 a gallon on average for gasoline on Monday. That was down nearly $1 from a year ago, and it is nowhere near the $7 a gallon some administration officials feared if the cap had failed to prevent a second oil shock from the Russian invasion. Gas prices are a mild source of relief for Mr. Biden as high inflation continues to hamper his approval among voters.After rising sharply in the months surrounding the Russian invasion, global oil prices have fallen back to late-2021 levels. The plunge is partly driven by economic cooling around the world, and it has persisted even as large producers like Saudi Arabia have curtailed production.Falling global prices have contributed to Russia’s falling revenues, but they are not the whole story. Reported sales prices for exported Russian oil, known as Urals, have dropped by twice as much as the global price for Brent crude.The Group of 7 leaders meeting in Japan this week will probably not spend much time on the cap, instead turning to other collective efforts to constrict Russia’s economy and revenues. And the biggest winners from the cap decision will not be at the summit.“The direct beneficiaries are mostly emerging market and lower-income countries that import oil from Russia,” Treasury officials noted in a recent report.The officials were referring to a handful of countries outside the Group of 7 — particularly India and China — that have used the cap as leverage to pay a discount for Russian oil. Neither India nor China joined the formal cap effort, but it is their oil consumers who are seeing the lowest prices from it. More

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    When Will the U.S. Run Out of Cash? The Answer Is Complicated.

    The federal government is essentially living paycheck to paycheck, making the X-date hard to pin down.In letters to Congress and warnings to business leaders about the catastrophic consequences if the United States defaults on its debt, Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen has repeatedly offered an important caveat.She cannot give the exact date when the federal government will run out of cash.The United States reached its statutory $31.4 trillion debt limit on Jan. 19, forcing the Treasury Department — which borrows huge sums of money to pay nation’s bills — to begin using accounting maneuvers known as extraordinary measures to conserve cash and avoid breaching the cap.On Monday, Ms. Yellen reiterated previous warnings that the Treasury Department could deplete its cash reserves by June 1. Still, the exact day when the United States will reach the so-called X-date is nearly impossible to determine.“These estimates are based on currently available data, and federal receipts, outlays and debt could vary from these estimates,” Ms. Yellen has told lawmakers in her letters. “The actual date Treasury exhausts extraordinary measures could be a number of days or weeks later than these estimates.”While Treasury has the most sophisticated cash management system in the world and employs teams of highly trained economists, its coffers are a blur of payments going out and tax revenues coming in. When its cash balance runs painfully low — as was the case on Wednesday, when the Treasury General Account started the day with less than $100 billion — pinpointing the X-date becomes even harder to predict. In many respects, that is because the moment that a default would occur is a moving target.Big bills are coming due.Ms. Yellen has been eyeing early June as a pivotal month since her first warnings to Congress about the debt limit in January. The reason: The federal government spends a lot of money in a short period of time around June 1, and it is impossible to predict exactly how much revenue is going to be coming in and when.In a report published on Thursday, the Bipartisan Policy Center, a think tank that carefully tracks federal spending, estimated that the government would spend $101 billion on June 1. Most of that money — $47 billion — will go toward Medicare, while the rest will be directed to veterans’ benefits, military pay and retirement, civil service retirement and supplemental security income. On June 2, the government has to pay $25 billion in Social Security benefits and another $2 billion for Medicaid.During those two days, the government is projected to spend about $140 billion and bring in only $44 billion in tax revenue, leaving the nation’s coffers operating on fumes.Revenues sputter as refunds flow.One big problem this year is that tax revenues have been coming in at a more tepid pace than anticipated.Severe storms, flooding and mudslides in California, Alabama and Georgia this year prompted the Internal Revenue Service to push the April 18 tax-filing deadlines in dozens of counties to October.Another surprising reason that cash is running lower than some budget experts projected is that the I.R.S. is starting to operate more efficiently. As a result of the $80 billion that the agency received as part of the Inflation Reduction Act last year, it has been able to ramp up hiring and chip away at the backlog of unprocessed tax returns.Because the I.R.S. has been processing returns more quickly, it is also paying out refunds more quickly and draining the amount of available cash.June 15 is a critical day.If Ms. Yellen can find enough coins in Treasury’s couch to pay the bills until June 15, the United States could find itself with a bit of breathing room.That is because June 15 is when third-quarter payments are due from corporations and people who are required to pay their tax bills throughout the year or choose to make payments every three months to avoid having large bills due in April.The Congressional Budget Office said in a report last week that an expected influx of quarterly tax receipts on June 15 and the availability of additional extraordinary measures would probably allow the government to continue financing operations through at least the end of July.The government could receive approximately $80 billion in tax revenue that day. The Bipartisan Policy Center estimates that those funds could be sufficient to keep the federal government afloat until June 30. At that time, Ms. Yellen would also have some additional extraordinary measures at her disposal — a suspension of investments into retirement funds for federal workers — that would allow her to unlock an additional $145 billion and potentially delay a default until well into July.It’s too close to call.The lack of clarity about the X-date has made it difficult for lawmakers to know how much pressure they are under to strike a deal. The government may not know how quickly cash is running out until right before the country faces default.But pressure is still mounting. Congress is likely to take days — if not weeks — to pass legislation to raise the debt ceiling. And even if President Biden and Speaker Kevin McCarthy strike an agreement, there is no guarantee that the House and Senate will easily pass the legislation.The legislative calendar gets increasingly complicated as summer approaches.Mr. McCarthy and Senator Chuck Schumer, Democrat of New York and the majority leader, would need to navigate legislation reflecting that agreement through their respective chambers, and the days left to do so are rapidly dwindling. The House is scheduled to be in session for only six days before the end of the month. The Senate is set for just five and is scheduled to be out of Washington beginning on Monday before the Memorial Day weekend.Mindful that lawmakers are loathe to reschedule their recesses, analysts have been watching the legislative schedule closely as they try to read the debt limit tea leaves. If no deal is signed into law by Memorial Day and Ms. Yellen does not announce that the X-date is delayed, that could raise the likelihood of a short-term suspension of the borrowing cap to give Congress more time to act.“The congressional calendar is king and will dictate urgency and passage dates for a bill, as has historically been the case,” Henrietta Treyz, the director of economic policy at Veda Partners, said in a note to clients this month. More

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    36 Hours in Buenos Aires: Things to Do and See

    12:30 p.m.
    Follow the grill smoke to the river
    Puerto Madero, a redeveloped dockside neighborhood about a 10-minute walk from San Telmo, has become one of the busiest tourist destinations in the city, thanks to landmarks like Puente de la Mujer, a sleek pedestrian bridge designed by the renowned architect Santiago Calatrava, and the ARA Presidente Sarmiento, a museum ship that bobs on the Rio Darsena Sur river next to a long line of loud, packed restaurants. Less than half a mile farther along the river, away from the crowd, is Estilo Campo, a fantastic parrilla (an Argentine steakhouse, which literally means open grill) with river views and waiters wearing kerchiefs and belts in the style of gauchos, to the delight of tourists. But the expertly prepared chorizo, crispy sweetbreads and juicy skirt steak leave no doubt that you are in an authentic Argentine parrilla, and the wine list is expansive. Lunch for two, about 18,000 pesos. More