Evelyn Reynolds

After enjoying decades of prosperity, the country has hit stubborn economic turbulence.For nearly three decades, Australia seemed to have a sort of get-out-of-jail card that allowed it to glide through the dot-com bust and the global financial crisis without a recession, while its citizens mostly enjoyed high wages, affordable housing and golden prospects.When a recession did arrive, in 2020, it was because of the Covid-19 pandemic.But four years later, Australia has been unable to shake off some of the headwinds, including a high cost of living — the price of bread has risen 24 percent since 2021 — a choppy labor market and rising inequality. While these and similar issues are also troubling nations like Britain and the United States, they are particularly stinging to many in Australia, which has long seen itself as the “lucky country.”Australia is among the wealthiest, most resource-rich and stable countries in the world. But millions of residents are experiencing levels of hardship not seen in many decades. They say they are struggling to put food on the table, pay for housing and health care and cover their utility bills. And many young Australians are confronting a reality that their ancestors never had to: that they will be worse off than their parents or grandparents.Robyn Northam, 28, once dreamed of becoming a hairdresser. But rising rent and exorbitant child care costs for her two children have put training out of reach. Just two generations ago, she said, her grandmother raised a family in her own home as a single parent, while working part-time as a nurse.“If you’re an average Australian, that’s virtually impossible,” said Ms. Northam, a content creator in Cairns who, with her partner, pays 600 Australian dollars, or about $400, a week in rent. “It’s a totally different world now.”A residential neighborhood in Melbourne’s inner north suburbs. Rents in some Melbourne neighborhoods are up almost 50 percent year-over-year.Alana Holmberg for The New York TimesWe are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

Farmers of fruits and vegetables say coverage has become unavailable or unaffordable as drought and floods increasingly threaten their crops.Farmers who grow fresh fruits and vegetables are often finding crop insurance prohibitively expensive — or even unavailable — as climate change escalates the likelihood of drought and floods capable of decimating harvests.Their predicament has left some small farmers questioning their future on the land.Efforts to increase the availability and affordability of crop insurance are being considered in Congress as part of the next farm bill, but divisions between the interests of big and small farmers loom over the debate.The threat to farms from climate change is not hypothetical. A 2021 study from researchers at Stanford University found that rising temperatures were responsible for 19 percent of the $27 billion in crop insurance payouts from 1991 to 2017 and concluded that additional warming substantially increases the likelihood of future crop losses.About 85 percent of the nation’s commodity crops — which include row crops like corn, soybeans and wheat — are insured, according to the National Sustainable Agriculture Coalition, a nonprofit promoting environmentally friendly food production.In contrast, barely half the land devoted to specialty crops — supermarket staples like strawberries, apples, asparagus and peaches — was insured in 2022, federal statistics show.Among those going without insurance is Bernie Smiarowski, who farms potatoes on 700 acres in western Massachusetts, along with 12 acres for strawberries. His soil is considered some of the nation’s most fertile. The trade-off is the proximity to the Connecticut River, a bargain that grows more tenuous as a warming world heightens the likelihood of flooding.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

The Baltimore bridge disaster on Tuesday upended operations at one of the nation’s busiest ports, with disruptions likely to be felt for weeks by companies shipping goods in and out of the country — and possibly by consumers as well.The upheaval will be especially notable for auto makers and coal producers for whom Baltimore has become one of the most vital shipping destinations in the United States.As officials began to investigate why a nearly 1,000-foot cargo ship ran into the Francis Scott Key Bridge in the middle of the night, companies that transport goods to suppliers and stores scrambled to get trucks to the other East Coast ports receiving goods diverted from Baltimore. Ships sat idle elsewhere, unsure where and when to dock.“It’s going to cause a lot of chaos,” said Paul Brashier, vice president for drayage and intermodal at ITS Logistics.The closure of the Port of Baltimore is the latest hit to global supply chains, which have been strained by monthslong crises at the Panama Canal, which has had to slash traffic because of low water levels; and the Suez Canal, which shipping companies are avoiding because of attacks by the Houthis on vessels in the Red Sea.The auto industry now faces new supply headaches.Last year, 570,000 vehicles were imported through Baltimore, according to Sina Golara, an assistant professor of supply chain management at Georgia State University. “That’s a huge amount,” he said, equivalent to nearly a quarter of the current inventory of new cars in the United States.Baltimore Ranks in the Top 20 U.S. PortsTotal trade in 2021 in millions of tons

Source: Bureau of Transportation StatisticsElla KoezeWe are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

Former Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida said policymakers need to be on guard against sticky prices that could thwart plans to ease monetary policy this year.
“If the Fed were targeting CPI right now, we wouldn’t even be discussing rate cuts,” he said.

Stubbornly high inflation could push the Federal Reserve into a more cautious stance this year regarding interest rate cuts, the central bank’s former vice chair said Friday.
Richard Clarida, who served as Fed governor until January 2022 and is now a global economic advisor at asset management giant Pimco, said his former colleagues need to be on guard against sticky prices that could thwart plans to ease monetary policy this year.

At its meeting earlier this week, the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee indicated it would likely decrease rates three times this year, assuming quarter percentage point intervals. Chair Jerome Powell said receding inflation and a strong economy give policymakers room to cut.
“This may be more of a hope than a forecast,” Clarida said during an interview on CNBC’s “Squawk Box.” “I do hope that the Fed really moves into data-dependent mode, because there can be a very good case if inflation is sticky and stubborn that they shouldn’t deliver three cuts this year.”
Markets also are expecting three cuts this year, though that pricing has been scaled back after data to start the year showed inflation higher than expected.
Fed officials are banking that elevated shelter inflation is on its way down, paving the way to lower their key borrowing rate from its highest level in more than 23 years. Clarida, however, said the extent to which the Fed can cut is unclear.
“Under a pretty broad range of scenarios, they’re going to get at least one cut in this year,” he said.

However, the calculus gets different as inflation data provides mixed signals.
The Fed prefers the Commerce Department’s measure of personal consumption expenditures prices, with a particular focus on the core reading that excludes food and energy. The headline 12-month PCE reading for January was 2.4% and core was at 2.8% — both above the Fed’s 2% goal but headed in the right direction.
However, the more commonly followed consumer price index in February was at 3.2% for headline and 3.8% for core, both well above the central bank target. Moreover, the Atlanta Fed’s measure of “sticky” inflation was at 4.4% on a 12-month basis and even higher, at 5%, on a three-month annualized basis, which marked the highest since April 2023.
“If the Fed were targeting CPI right now, we wouldn’t even be discussing rate cuts,” Clarida said.
He also noted that even though Powell on Wednesday said financial conditions are tight, they in fact are “a lot easier than they were in November.” A Chicago Fed measure of financial conditions is at its loosest since January 2022.
“What I think is going on here is a delicate balance that [Powell is] trying to navigate,” Clarida said. “Financial conditions will very naturally start to ease when they get the sense the Fed is done and [will start] cutting. Then of course that improves the economic outlook and potentially makes it harder to get inflation down to 2” percent.

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Shortly after Jonathan Kanter took over the Justice Department’s antitrust division in November 2021, the agency secured an additional $50 million to investigate monopolies, bust criminal cartels and block mergers.To celebrate, Mr. Kanter bought a prop of a giant check, placed it outside his office and wrote on the check’s memo line: “Break ’Em Up.”Mr. Kanter, 50, has pushed that philosophy ever since, becoming a lead architect of the most significant effort in decades to fight the concentration of power in corporate America. On Thursday, he took his biggest swing when the Justice Department filed an antitrust lawsuit against Apple. In the 88-page lawsuit, the government argued that Apple had violated antitrust laws with practices intended to keep customers reliant on its iPhones and less likely to switch to competing devices.That lawsuit joins two Justice Department antitrust cases against Google that argue the company illegally shored up monopolies. Mr. Kanter’s staff has also challenged numerous corporate mergers, including suing to stop JetBlue Airways from buying Spirit Airlines.“We want to help real people by making sure that our antitrust laws work for workers, work for consumers, work for entrepreneurs and work to protect our democratic values,” Mr. Kanter said in a January interview. He declined to comment on the Google cases and other active litigation.At a news conference about the Apple lawsuit on Thursday, Mr. Kanter compared the action to past Justice Department challenges to Standard Oil, AT&T and Microsoft. The suit is aimed at protecting “the market for the innovations that we can’t yet perceive,” he said.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

Falling fertility rates are set to spark a transformational demographic shift over the next 25 years, with major implications for the global economy, according to a new study.
By 2050, three-quarters of countries are forecast to fall below the population replacement birth rate of 2.1 babies per female.
By 2100, just six countries are expected to have population-replacing birth rates.

Terry Vine | Getty Images

Falling fertility rates are set to spark a transformational demographic shift over the next 25 years, with major implications for the global economy, according to a new study.
By 2050, three-quarters of countries are forecast to fall below the population replacement birth rate of 2.1 babies per female, research published Wednesday in The Lancet medical journal found.

That would leave 49 countries — primarily in low-income regions of sub-Saharan Africa and Asia — responsible for the majority of new births.
“Future trends in fertility rates and livebirths will propagate shifts in global population dynamics, driving changes to international relations and a geopolitical environment, and highlighting new challenges in migration and global aid networks,” the report’s authors wrote in their conclusion.
By 2100, just six countries are expected to have population-replacing birth rates: The African nations of Chad, Niger and Tonga, the Pacific islands of Samoa and Tonga, and central Asia’s Tajikistan.
That shifting demographic landscape will have “profound” social, economic, environmental and geopolitical impacts, the report’s authors said.
In particular, shrinking workforces in advanced economies will require significant political and fiscal intervention, even as advances in technology provide some support.

“As the workforce declines, the total size of the economy will tend to decline even if output per worker stays the same. In the absence of liberal migration policies, these nations will face many challenges,” Dr. Christopher Murray, a lead author of the report and director at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, told CNBC.
“AI (artificial intelligence) and robotics may diminish the economic impact of declining workforces but some sectors such as housing would continue to be strongly affected,” he added.

Baby boom vs. bust

The report, which was funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, did not put a figure on the specific economic impact of the demographic shifts. However, it did highlight a divergence between high-income countries, where birth rates are steadily falling, and low-income countries, where they continue to rise.
From 1950 to 2021, the global total fertility rate (TFR) — or average number of babies born to a woman — more than halved, falling from 4.84 to 2.23, as many countries grew wealthier and women had fewer babies. That trend was exacerbated by societal shifts, such as an increase in female workforce participation, and political measures including China’s one-child policy.
From 2050 to 2100, the total global fertility rate is set to fall further from 1.83 to 1.59. The replacement rate — or number of children a couple would need to have to replace themselves — is 2.1 in most developed countries.
That comes even as the global population is forecast to grow from 8 billion currently to 9.7 billion by 2050, before peaking at around 10.4 billion in the mid-2080s, according to the UN.
Already, many advanced economies have fertility rates well below the replacement rate. By the middle of the century, that category is set to include major economies China and India, with South Korea’s birth rate ranking as the lowest globally at 0.82
Meantime, lower-income countries are expected to see their share of new births almost double from 18% in 2021 to 35% by 2100. By the turn of the century, sub-Saharan Africa will account for half of all new births, according to the report.
Murray said that this could put poorer countries in a “stronger position” to negotiate more ethical and fair migration policies — leverage that could become important as countries grow increasingly exposed to the effects of climate change. More

A wave of strikes by German workers, feeling the sting of inflation and stagnant growth, is the latest sign of the bleak outlook for Europe’s economic powerhouse.For those striking at the gates of the SRW scrap metal plant, just outside Germany’s eastern city of Leipzig, time can be counted not just in days — 136 so far — but in the thousands of card games played, the liters of coffee imbibed and the armfuls of firewood burned.Or it can be measured by the length of Jonny Bohne’s beard. He vows not to shave until he returns to the job he has held for two decades. Wearing his red union baseball cap and tending the blaze inside an oil drum, Mr. Bohne, 56, looks like a scruffy Santa Claus.The dozens of workers at the SRW recycling center say their strike has become the longest in postwar German history — a dubious honor in a nation with a history of harmonious labor relations. (The previous record, 114 days, was held by shipyard workers in the northern city of Kiel who struck in the 1950s.)Jonny Bohne has vowed not to shave while on strike. It’s been awhile.Ingmar Nolting for The New York TimesWhile monthslong strikes may be commonplace in some other European countries like Spain, Belgium or France, where workers’ protests are something of a national pastime, Germany has long prided itself on nondisruptive collective bargaining.A wave of strikes this year has Germans asking whether that is now changing. By some measures, the first three months of 2024 have had the most strikes in the country in 25 years.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

The Swiss National Bank on Thursday surprised the market with a decision to lower its main policy rate by 0.25 percentage points to 1.5%.
Economists polled by Reuters had expected the Swiss central bank to hold rates at 1.75%.
Switzerland is the first advanced economy to cut interest rates following a prolonged period of high inflationary pressures.

The Swiss national flag hangs from the Federal Palace, Switzerland’s parliament building, in Bern, Switzerland, on Thursday, Dec. 13, 2018. The Swiss National Bank cut its inflation forecast and showed no inclination of moving off its crisis-era settings, citing the francs strength and mounting global risks. Photographer: Stefan Wermuth/Bloomberg via Getty Images
Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images

The Swiss National Bank on Thursday surprised the market with a decision to lower its main policy rate by 0.25 percentage points to 1.5%, saying national inflation is likely to stay below 2% for the foreseeable future.
Economists polled by Reuters had expected the Swiss central bank to hold rates at 1.75%.

“For some months now, inflation has been back below 2% and thus in the range the SNB equates with price stability. According to the new forecast, inflation is also likely to remain in this range over the next few years,” the bank said. Swiss inflation continued to fall in February, hitting 1.2%.
The SNB also reduced its annual inflation forecasts. The bank now sees average inflation reaching 1.4% in 2024, down from its 1.9% estimate in December, and 1.2% for 2025, trimmed from the previous 1.6% estimate. Its first forecast for 2026 puts average inflation at 1.1% over the period.
Following the announcement, analysts at Capital Economics said they expect two more SNB rate cuts over the course of this year, “with the Bank sounding more dovish and inflation likely to undershoot its forecasts.”
“We think inflation will come in even lower than the new SNB forecasts imply and remain around the current level of 1.2% before falling to below 1.0% next year. Accordingly, we forecast the SNB to cut rates at the September and December meetings taking the policy rate to 1%, where we think it will remain throughout 2025 and 2026,” Capital Economics analysts said in a note.
The September meeting is likely to be the last under the stewardship of SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan, who will step down at the end of that month after 12 years at the helm.

The SNB said Swiss economic growth is “likely to remain modest in the coming quarters,” with the GDP poised to expand by roughly 1% this year.
“Our forecast for Switzerland, as for the global economy, is subject to significant uncertainty. The main risk is weaker economic activity abroad. Momentum on the mortgage and real estate markets has weakened noticeably in recent quarters,” the SNB said. “However, the vulnerabilities in these markets remain.”
On a macro level, the SNB flagged “moderate” global economic growth in the coming quarters, along with likely falls in inflation partly thanks to restrictive monetary policy strategies. It nevertheless acknowledged “significant risks” and geopolitical tensions that could cloud the international economic horizon.

In a TV interview with CNBC’s Silvia Amaro, Jordan said that the improved inflation forecast has given the bank the breathing room to lower rates, but refused to be drawn on the inevitability of three cuts this year.
“We will see in June whether the situation is different, whether inflationary pressure continues to decline, then we’ll make a new decision in June,” he said, acknowledging that the bank remains ready to intercede in the foreign exchange market “if necessary” to defend the Swiss franc. High interest rates typically prop up currencies and weaken the relative value of other coins against them.
“We said very clearly that we remain … available to intervene in the foreign exchange market, if necessary. So we can use this instrument in order to make sure that monetary conditions remain appropriate,” Jordan noted.
He fell short of commenting on whether other central banks will take a page from the SNB’s trailblazing book and loosen their monetary policy, but signaled no concerns over the potential impact their moves may have on the Swiss currency.
“We will profit from a situation where we have price stability globally. Of course, it could have an impact on interest rate differentials, but I think a situation where the price stability is re-established everywhere, this is something that is positive for the global economy, and so also for Switzerland,” he said.

First to blink

Switzerland is the first advanced economy to cut interest rates following a prolonged period of high inflationary pressures, exacerbated by the Covid-19 pandemic’s impact on global trade and Russia’s war in Ukraine. Switzerland was also affected by jitters in the banking space last year, when the government stepped in to facilitate UBS’ takeover of fallen rival Credit Suisse.
Jordan on Thursday stressed to CNBC the importance of liquidity to the Swiss banking sector.
“A key message from us is always that they have to prepare their collateral, so that this collateral … in case they need additional liquidity,” he said.
Asked whether Swiss lenders are doing enough in this direction, Jordan said there were “very good discussions in Switzerland at the moment” between banks and the SNB.
“The situation of March last year and also in the United States made it very clear also to smaller banks that liquidity issues could be a problem,” he said. “I think we are on the good way in order to make sure that sufficient collateral will be available in an emergency case … but it’s very important that we continue to go in that direction.”
The Swiss National Bank’s rate announcement emerged just before Norway’s central bank refused to blink, holding rates steady at 4.5%. 
“The rate path we’re presenting today indicates… an autumn rate cut, most likely in September,” Norges Bank Governor Ida Wolden Bache told a press conference on Thursday, according to Reuters.

Later in the session, the Bank of England also left its rates unchanged at 5.25%.
It comes after the U.S. Federal Reserve on Wednesday held rates steady following its March meeting and reiterated its expectations for three rate cuts in 2024. The European Central Bank has also been keeping policy unchanged, with officials signaling policymakers will consider a rate cut in June — but flagging that the decision remains highly data-reliant. More