Evelyn Reynolds

The Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its latest reading on the consumer price index on Tuesday at 8:30 a.m. ET.
Excluding food and energy, the increase for core inflation is forecast at a 0.3% gain, also one-tenth of a percentage point above the previous month.
Inflation’s resilience almost certainly will assure no Fed rate cuts at its meeting on April 30 to May 1, and possibly into the summer.

Shoppers are seen in a Kroger supermarket in Atlanta on Oct. 14, 2022.
Elijah Nouvelage | AFP | Getty Images

Rising gasoline prices likely put a floor under inflation in February, potentially reinforcing the Federal Reserve’s decision to take a go-slow approach with interest rate reductions.
Economists expect that prices across a broad spectrum of goods and services rose 0.4% on the month, just ahead of the January pace for 0.3%, according to the Dow Jones consensus. Excluding food and energy, the increase for core inflation is forecast at a 0.3% gain, also one-tenth of a percentage point above the previous month.

On a year-over-year basis, headline inflation is expected to show a 3.1% gain and core inflation a 3.7% increase when the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its latest reading on the consumer price index Tuesday at 8:30 a.m. ET. The respective 12-month readings in January were 3.1% and 3.9%.
Though it has fallen sharply since its peak in mid-2022, inflation’s resilience almost certainly will assure no Fed rate cuts at its next meeting March 19-20, and possibly into the summer, according to current market pricing. Markets were rattled in January when the CPI data came in higher than expected, and Fed officials shifted their rhetoric afterward to a more cautious tone about easing policy.

“While we do not expect the trend in inflation to re-accelerate this year, less clear progress over the next few months is likely to keep the Fed searching for more confidence that inflation is on course to return to target on a sustained basis,” Sarah House, senior economist at Wells Fargo, said in a recent client note.
Energy prices had eased earlier in the winter, putting some downward pressure on headline readings.
But Wells Fargo estimates that energy services rebounded 4% in February, leading to an increase at the pump, where a gallon of regular gas is up about 20 cents, or more than 6%, from a month ago, according to AAA.

The bank also estimates that goods prices have held their ground despite an easing in supply chain pressures and pressure from higher interest rates. On the brighter side, the House said lower prices on travel, medical care and other services helped keep inflation in check.
Still, Wells Fargo has raised its full-year inflation forecast.
The bank’s economists now expect core CPI to run at a 3.3% rate this year, up from the previous 2.8% estimate. Focusing on the core personal consumption expenditures price index, the preferred Fed gauge, Wells Fargo sees inflation at 2.5% for the year, versus a prior estimate of 2.2%.

Wells Fargo isn’t alone in expecting a higher pace of inflation.
In its February survey of consumers, the New York Fed found that while respondents held to their one-year outlook for inflation at 3%, their expectations at the three- and five-year horizons accelerated to 2.7% and 2.9% respectively, both well ahead of the central bank’s 2% target.
While increases in gas prices can play an outsize role in monthly fluctuations for the survey, the outlook for gas price increases was actually relatively benign.

An Atlanta Fed measure of “sticky price” inflation held at 4.6% on a 12-month basis in January. The gauge is weighted toward items such as housing and insurance, and Fed officials are hoping that shelter costs decrease through the year, taking some pressure off the cost of living gauges.
On Thursday, the BLS will release the February producer price index, which measures what producers get for their goods and services at the wholesale level. The two indexes will be the last inflation data the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee will see before it meets next week.

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President Biden proposed a $7.3 trillion budget on Monday packed with tax increases on corporations and high earners, new spending on social programs and a wide range of efforts to combat high consumer costs like housing and college tuition.The proposal includes only relatively small changes from the budget plan Mr. Biden submitted last year, which went nowhere in Congress, though it reiterates his call for lawmakers to spend about $100 billion to strengthen border security and deliver aid to Israel and Ukraine.Most of the new spending and tax increases included in the fiscal year 2025 budget again stand almost no chance of becoming law this year, given that Republicans control the House and roundly oppose Mr. Biden’s economic agenda. Last week, House Republicans passed a budget proposal outlining their priorities, which are far afield from what Democrats have called for.Instead, the document will serve as a draft of Mr. Biden’s policy platform as he seeks re-election in November, along with a series of contrasts intended to draw a distinction with his presumptive Republican opponent, former President Donald J. Trump.Mr. Biden has sought to reclaim strength on economic issues with voters who have given him low marks amid elevated inflation. This budget aims to portray him as a champion of increased government aid for workers, parents, manufacturers, retirees and students, as well as the fight against climate change.Speaking in New Hampshire on Monday, Mr. Biden heralded the budget as a way to raise revenue to pay for his priorities by raising taxes on the wealthiest Americans and big corporations.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

The ruling upends the National Labor Relations Board’s move to broaden the standard for determining when a company is liable for labor law violations.A federal judge, siding with business lobbying groups, has blocked a rule that would broaden the reach of federal labor law to make big franchisers like McDonald’s responsible for the conditions of workers they have not directly hired.The judge, J. Campbell Barker of the United States District Court for the Eastern District of Texas, on Friday vacated a rule issued by the National Labor Relations Board determining when a company is a joint employer, making it liable under labor law for the working conditions of those hired by a franchisee or provided by a staffing agency. He said the rule, which was to go into effect Monday, was too broad.The decision by Judge Barker, a nominee of former President Donald J. Trump, keeps in place a more business-friendly standard for assigning legal liability.Unions and employees support the rule because it makes it easier to bargain for better conditions, while franchisers say it would disrupt their business model.The U.S. Chamber of Commerce, which led a group of business groups challenging the rule, applauded the ruling. “It will prevent businesses from facing new liabilities related to workplaces they don’t control, and workers they don’t actually employ,” Suzanne P. Clark, chief executive of the chamber, said in a statement.The labor board’s chair, Lauren McFerran, who was named by President Biden, said in a statement that the ruling was “a disappointing setback,” but “not the last word” on the joint-employer standard. If the board appeals the ruling, the case would move to the conservative U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit. The labor agency pushed for the case to be moved to Washington, but Judge Barker denied that request.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

At the three-year range, expectations rose 0.3 percentage point to 2.7%, while the five-year outlook jumped even more, up 0.4 percentage point to 2.9%.
The indications are well ahead of the Fed’s 2% goal for 12-month inflation, indicating that the central bank may need to keep policy tighter for longer.

Customers shop at a Costco store on August 31, 2023 in Novato, California. According to a report by the Commerce Department, consumer spending rose 0.8% in July beating expectations of 0.7%. (Photo by Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)
Justin Sullivan | Getty Images News | Getty Images

Consumers increasingly doubt the Federal Reserve can achieve its inflation goals anytime soon, according to a survey Monday from the New York Federal Reserve.
While the outlook over the next year was unchanged at 3%, that wasn’t the case for the longer term. At the three-year range, expectations rose 0.3 percentage point to 2.7%, while the five-year outlook jumped even more, up 0.4 percentage point to 2.9%.

All three are well ahead of the Fed’s 2% goal for 12-month inflation, indicating the central bank may need to keep policy tighter for longer. Economists and policymakers consider expectations as a key factor in viewing the path of inflation, so the Survey of Consumer Expectations for February could be bad news.
“Longer-term inflation expectations appear to have remained well anchored, as reflected by a broad range of surveys of households, businesses, and forecasters, as well as measures from financial markets,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell said last week during testimony on Capitol Hill. “We remain committed to bringing inflation back down to our 2 percent goal and to keeping longer-term inflation expectations well anchored.”

Headline inflation as judged by personal consumption expenditures prices, the Fed’s preferred gauge, rose 2.4% in January — or 2.8% at the core level when excluding food and energy. Those readings represented progress in the Fed’s battle, though some economists have warned the “last mile” back to 2% would be the most difficult.
The Fed is expected to hold rates steady when it meets next week, with market pricing pointing to a cut in June followed possibly by three more before the end of the year, according to CME Group gauging of futures markets.
Other inflation measures in the February survey offered some hope.

Most notably, the outlook for rent costs decreased to 6.1%, down 0.3 percentage point for the lowest reading since December 2020. Shelter has remained the most stubborn of the inflation components but one Fed officials think will ease as the year goes on and tenants negotiate new leases.
Elsewhere, the one-year outlook for gas rose 0.1 percentage point to 4.3%, fell by 1.8 percentage points to 6.8% for medical care and was unchanged for food at 4.9%. The outlook for household spending over the next year rose to 5.2%, up 0.2 percentage point.
Respondents also indicated some unease over job prospects. The perceived probability for losing one’s job in the next year rose to 14.5%, an increase of 2.7 percentage points.

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Former President Donald Trump on Monday indicated he’s likely to reinstate duties on foreign goods should he win election to a second term.
Trump called out the Chinese automobile industry specifically for future targeting.
“China is right now our boss. They are the boss of the United States, almost like we’re a subsidiary of China,” he said.

Proclaiming that “I’m a big believer in tariffs,” former President Donald Trump on Monday indicated he’s likely to reinstitute duties on foreign goods should he win election to a second term.
In a CNBC interview, Trump cited both economic and political benefits from targeting foreign goods entering the U.S.

“I fully believe in them economically when you’re being taken advantage of by other countries,” the presumptive Republican nominee said during a “Squawk Box” interview, referring to tariffs. “Beyond the economics, it gives you power in dealing with other countries.”
The comments come as Trump is running a close race in the polls with President Joe Biden. With his latest slew of victories in the Republican primaries and all his opponents dropping out, Trump looks set to become the party nominee in a race where the economy will loom large.
During his administration, from 2017-21, Trump instituted a variety of tariffs on China, Mexico, the European Union and others. In particular, he slapped 25% duties on imported steel as well as aluminum.
In China’s case, many of the tariffs have remained in place under the Biden administration.
“China was taking advantage of us on the steel. They were destroying our entire steel industry, which was never doing very well over the last 25 years anyway … because it’s been eaten alive by foreign competition,” Trump said. “I put a 50% tax on China’s steel coming in. And every person in the steel industry, when they see me they started crying. They would hug me.”

Trump called out the Chinese automobile industry specifically for future targeting.
“China is right now our boss. They are the boss of the United States, almost like we’re a subsidiary of China,” he said.
China produced about 30 million vehicles in 2023 and saw about a 50% year-over-year increase in January, according to MarkLines. A group of Democratic senators from auto-producing states recently urged Biden to slap tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles entering the U.S.
Trump said he would seek tariffs to try to get China to build more of its cars in the U.S.
“The whole topic of tariffs is so simple. No. 1, it’s great economically for us, and it brings our companies back, because if you charge tariffs to China, they’re going to build … their car plants here and they’re going to employ our people,” he said. “We don’t want to get cars from China. We want to get cars made by China in the United States using our workers.”
Critics charge that tariffs are counterproductive because they make imported goods more expensive. Inflation, however, was subdued during Trump’s time in office, as the consumer price index rose less than 8% total over the four-year span, compared with about 18% under Biden.

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Saudi Arabia’s state oil giant Aramco reported a 25% decline in profit to $121.3 billion in 2023, down from $161.1 billion in 2022.
The result still represents Aramco’s second-highest ever net income.
The earnings come after the Saudi government transferred an additional 8% of Aramco shares, worth $164 billion, to Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund.

Logo of Aramco, officially the Saudi Arabian Oil Group, Saudi petroleum and natural gas company, seen on the second day of the 24th World Petroleum Congress at the Big 4 Building at Stampede Park, on September 18, 2023, in Calgary, Canada. 
Artur Widak | Nurphoto | Getty Images

Saudi Arabia’s state oil giant Aramco reported a 25% decline in profit to $121.3 billion in 2023, down from $161.1 billion in 2022, and boosted its mega dividend payout despite “economic headwinds.”
Aramco raised its base dividend for the fourth quarter by 4% to $20.3 billion dollars, and lifted its performance-linked dividend by 9% to $10.8 billion, resulting in a $31 billion dollar payday for the Saudi government and Aramco stakeholders.

Despite the earnings decline, the result still represents Aramco’s second-highest net income on record, far outpacing the profitability of its largest global peers.
“The year-on-year decrease can be attributed to lower crude oil prices and volumes sold, as well as reduced refining and chemicals margins, partially offset by a decrease in production royalties during the year and lower income taxes and zakat,” Aramco said in a statement. 
Aramco said total revenue also fell 17% to $440.88 billion, down from $535.19 billion last year. Free cash flow also fell to $101.2 billion in 2023, compared to $148.5 billion in 2022. 
“It was a year that saw global oil demand reach record levels despite geopolitical volatility, economic headwinds, and inflationary pressures,” Aramco CEO Amin Nasser told the earnings call on Sunday. 
“We expect the global oil market to remain healthy over the remainder of this year, and we expect it to be fairly robust with growth of about 1.5 million barrels,” Nasser added. Saudi Arabia led OPEC+ countries last week in a decision to extend voluntary oil output cuts until the end of June.

Changing Hands

The earnings come after the Saudi government transferred an additional 8% of Aramco shares, worth $164 billion, to Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund (PIF). Yasir Al-Rumayyan is both the chairman of Aramco’s Board of Directors and the governor of the PIF. 
The share transfer to PIF is one of the largest transactions Aramco has undertaken since listing, and will allow the PIF to benefit from Aramco’s mega dividend payout policy. 
Aramco paid $97.8 billion in dividends in 2023, up 30% from 2022. The full year performance-linked dividend for 2024 is expected to be $43.1 billion alone.
The share transfer “doesn’t change anything,” Aramco Chief Financial Officer Ziad Al-Murshed told the earnings call. “We’re healthy and we have no need to issue new equity,” he said in response to a question about speculation of a secondary or additional public share offering. 

PIF already owned 4% of Aramco, and controls Sanabil, a financial investment firm, which owns 4% of Aramco as well. The PIF’s 16% state in Aramco, worth an estimated $328 billion, will strengthen the fund’s financial position and boost its ability to deploy capital to invest on behalf of the Saudi state, which is gradually diversifying its economy away from oil.
The new Aramco stake also pushes PIF closer to achieving its end-2025 target of $1 trillion in assets under management.

More Investment

Aramco confirmed it would halt plans to raise its oil production capacity from 12 million barrels per day to 13 million barrels per day — a move expected to reduce capital investment by approximately $40 billion between 2024 and 2028.
“The recent directive from the government to maintain our Maximum Sustainable Capacity at 12 million barrels per day provides increased flexibility, as well as an opportunity to focus on increasing gas production and growing our liquids-to-chemicals business,” Nasser said. 
Aramco’s average hydrocarbon production was 12.8 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2023, including 10.7 million barrels per day of total liquids.
Aramco aims to ramp up its investments in other ventures including gas and gas infrastructure. It has a target to increase gas production by more than 60% by 2030, compared to 2021 levels. Its flagship gas investment is the Jaffoura project — the largest gas play in the Middle East — with an estimated 200 trillion standard cubic feet of natural gas.  More

The YIMBY movement isn’t just for liberals any more. Legislators from both sides of the political divide are working to add duplexes and apartments to single-family neighborhoods.For years, the Yimbytown conference was an ideologically safe space where liberal young professionals could talk to other liberal young professionals about the particular problems of cities with a lot of liberal young professionals: not enough bike lanes and transit, too many restrictive zoning laws.The event began in 2016 in Boulder, Colo., and has ever since revolved around a coalition of left and center Democrats who want to make America’s neighborhoods less exclusive and its housing more dense. (YIMBY, a pro-housing movement that is increasingly an identity, stands for “Yes in my backyard.”)But the vibes and crowd were surprisingly different at this year’s meeting, which was held at the University of Texas at Austin in February. In addition to vegan lunches and name tags with preferred pronouns, the conference included — even celebrated — a group that had until recently been unwelcome: red-state Republicans.The first day featured a speech on changing zoning laws by Greg Gianforte, the Republican governor of Montana, who last year signed a housing package that YIMBYs now refer to as “the Montana Miracle.” Day 2 kicked off with a panel on solutions to Texas’s rising housing costs. One of the speakers was a Republican legislator in Texas who, in addition to being an advocate for loosening land-use regulations, has pushed for a near-total ban on abortions.Anyone who missed these discussions might have instead gone to the panel on bipartisanship where Republican housing reformers from Arizona and Montana talked with a Democratic state senator from Vermont. Or noticed the list of sponsors that, in addition to foundations like Open Philanthropy and Arnold Ventures, included conservative and libertarian organizations like the Mercatus Center, the American Enterprise Institute and the Pacific Legal Foundation.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

The industrial giant Caterpillar hired William Barr and other lawyers to defuse a federal criminal investigation of alleged tax dodges.In December 2018, a team of federal law enforcement agents flew to Amsterdam to interview a witness in a yearslong criminal investigation into Caterpillar, which had avoided billions of dollars of income taxes by shifting profits to a Swiss subsidiary.A few hours before the interview was set to begin, the agents were startled to hear that the Justice Department was telling them to cancel the long-planned meeting.The interview was never rescheduled, and the investigation would limp along for another few years before culminating, in late 2022, with a victory for Caterpillar. The Internal Revenue Service told the giant industrial company to pay less than a quarter of the back taxes the government once claimed that Caterpillar owed and did not impose any penalties. The criminal investigation was closed without charges being filed — and even without agents having the chance to review records seized from the company.Caterpillar appears to have defused the investigation at least in part by deploying a type of raw legal power that rarely becomes publicly visible. This account is based on interviews with people familiar with the investigation, regulatory filings and internal Justice Department emails provided to Senate investigators and reviewed by The New York Times.In the months leading up to the canceled interview in the Netherlands, Caterpillar had enlisted a small group of well-connected lawyers to plead the company’s case. Chief among those was William P. Barr, who had served as attorney general in the George H.W. Bush administration.Richard Zuckerman, the Justice Department’s top tax official, stopped an investigation into Caterpillar after meeting with its lawyers.Jerry ZolynskyWe are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More