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    Undocumented Workers, Fearing Deportation, Are Staying Home

    Fearing roundups, many immigrants are staying home. Construction, agriculture, senior care and hospitality employers say labor shortages will worsen.The railroad tracks that slice through downtown Freehold, N.J., used to be lined by dozens of men, waiting for work. Each morning, the men — day laborers, almost all from Latin America and undocumented — would be scooped up by local contractors in pickup trucks for jobs painting, landscaping, removing debris.In recent weeks, the tracks have been desolate. On a gray February morning, a laborer named Mario, who came from Mexico two decades ago, said it was the quietest he could remember.“Because of the president, we have a fear,” said Mario, 55, who agreed to be interviewed on the condition that only his first name would be used because he is undocumented. His two sons are also in the United States illegally; one works in paving, the other in home construction. “We are in difficult times,” he said.This scene has been playing out on the streets of Freehold, on the farms of California’s Central Valley, in nursing homes in Arizona, in Georgia poultry plants and in Chicago restaurants.President Trump has broadcast plans for a “mass deportation,” and the opening weeks of his second term have brought immigration enforcement operations in cities across the United States, providing a daily drumbeat of arrests that, while so far relatively limited, are quickly noted in group chats among migrants.Fear has gripped America’s undocumented workers. Many are staying home.The impact is being felt not only in immigrant homes and communities, but also in the industries that rely on immigrants as a source of willing and inexpensive labor, including residential construction, agriculture, senior care and hospitality. American consumers will soon feel the pain.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Starting the day with a healthy breakfast is becoming a pricey luxury

    Consumers are shifting their morning routines, recent data shows.
    This comes as prices for eggs and coffee, two staples of breakfast in the U.S., remain at record highs.
    The price of eggs in the U.S. is up 53% year over year, according to the latest Bureau of Labor Statistics data.

    domoyega | E+ | Getty Images

    Alicia Love typically purchases the most popular beans for Coffee Labs Roasters in a one-year deal with her coffee importer. But at the end of last year, prices were so high that she decided to wait the market out.
    Instead, prices climbed even higher. With supplies running low, she signed a purchase order for a three-month supply, and hopes that prices will soon ease.

    “At the time I thought, should we wait to sign this new deal?” Love, an owner of the Tarrytown, New York, business, told CNBC. “I’m kicking myself in the butt now for not doing it then.”
    The initial deal would have cost Love roughly $4 per bag, which is for either 130 pounds or 152 pounds, depending on the variety. The three-month deal she just signed was for roughly $5 per bag.
    The skyrocketing cost of coffee comes as egg prices are also rising without any end in sight. Both products are pillars of an American breakfast, which has long been one of the cheaper meals to eat either at home or on the go. The quickly escalating prices means consumers are changing their habits and businesses are scurrying to react.

    A rapid rise

    In the latest consumer price index report, Bureau of Labor Statistics data showed the price of eggs in the U.S. up 53% year over year. But the pace of gains has been rapid. From December to January, the average cost of a dozen spiked 15%, per FRED data. In the week ended March 3, a 7% week-over-week increase brought average prices above $8 a dozen, JPMorgan Chase said.
    While egg production is suffering from a devastating avian flu outbreak, which has resulted in the culling of millions of hens. Some say the consolidation of the industry is exacerbating the problem. On Friday, the Wall Street Journal reported that the U.S. Department of Justice opened an investigation into antitrust practices that might be at play.

    Coffee, meanwhile, is also reaching record-high prices. A dry spell in Brazil, which has hit crop yields, is largely at fault. Over the past 12 months, futures prices have more than doubled. Last month, coffee prices on the Intercontinental Exchange surpassed $4 per pound for the first time ever.

    Stock chart icon

    Futures trading for coffee has spiked over the past 12 months.

    “I’m hoping that we just have stability in the market. It’s very challenging to navigate the volatility, and the consumers are going to struggle with that,” said Andrew Blyth, coffee trading operations manager at Royal New York. “You can’t have menu prices changing once a month, especially for something as … routine as coffee.”
    Consumers have gotten the message. Morgan Stanley said in a Wednesday note that its survey of consumer sentiment signaled the first negative reading since June 2024. This follows the University of Michigan’s own survey from February that showed consumers expect inflation to get worse in the near term.
    Breakfast as a whole was already stretching consumers wallets in recent years, according to Robert Byrne, senior director of consumer research at Technomic’s food service segment.
    “Speaking of breakfast more broadly, over the past few years we have seen affordability ratings for family-style chains (IHOP, Cracker Barrel, Denny’s, etc.) under greater pressure than what is reported across other restaurant segments,” Byrne said, in an interview.

    That’s caused diners to shift their behavior, Byrne said.
    “Breakfast is the easiest to either replace with something simple from home or even skip altogether,” Byrne said. He added, a recent Technomic survey found, on average, consumers use some type of foodservice for breakfast roughly 1.2 times per week.
    “With inflation impacting all consumers – even affluent diners are pulling back on frequency – the thought is consumers are skipping other types of occasions and instead saving up for a weekend splurge, which probably is a dinner,” he said.
    Technomic’s research also shows consumers are walking away from more routine breakfast orders at quick service options like Dunkin’ or McDonald’s. Byrne said, when they do go now, it’s often either an “impulse” order or a substitute for a splurge at a restaurant.

    Profits under pressure

    The impact is being felt across the restaurant industry. Dine Brands, the parent of breakfast staple IHOP, has seen its stock pull back more than 13% this year and shares hit a 52-week low on Wednesday after providing a disappointing 2025 outlook. The majority of analysts polled by FactSet maintain a hold rating.
    “For IHOP … we’re expecting sort of low to mid single-digit inflation cost for the year. And that’s really primarily – it’s really driven by eggs,” Dine Brands Chief Financial Officer Vance Chang said on the company’s earnings call. “Outside of that, I think there’s some headwinds with bacon and coffee as well.”
    Dine Brands expects domestic same-store sales for IHOP to be in the range of down 1% to up 2% for fiscal 2025.
    Facing similar pressures, Waffle House and Denny’s recently imposed a surcharge for menu items containing eggs as opposed to a straight up price hike. Byrne said such a move may be more bearable for consumers because it’s assumed the surcharge is a temporary increase. McDonald’s has held the line and said the company will not implement an egg surcharge.

    Stock chart icon

    Restaurant stocks that offer robust breakfast menu items have been hit hard over the past year, with the exception of McDonald’s.

    “My sense is that consumers may appreciate that it is noted as a temporary surcharge rather than a blanket price increase, as this implies that prices will return when the situation changes,” Byrne said. “On the flip side, printing menus is expensive and an operator may not be in a position to do so quickly.”
    Restaurant stocks have well underperformed the market over the past year. McDonald’s is an outlier with a 10% gain over the past year, but Denny’s stock has plummeted more than 55% and Cracker Barrel has fallen 38% over the same period.

    The impact of tariffs

    More bad news could be coming for coffee drinkers. Coffee Labs’ Love said some decaffeinated coffee travels back and forth over the U.S. border and could be impacted by proposed tariffs.
    She explained that if a roaster is using a washing method to decaffeinate their coffee, the mountain water used in the process comes from Mexico, but pre-roasted beans can be sent to Canada for processing. This means President Donald Trump’s tariffs on Mexico and Canada could add a new layer of price pressures.
    “This cost will show across the board ,” Love said. “The Canada tariff will make decaf coffee cost a lot more on top of the already high price.”
    Blyth is less sure that decaf coffee will be hurt by the White House’s trade policy, but signaled there is still a lack of clarity.
    “As of now we don’t believe it would incur a tariff, but we just don’t know yet. Hopefully there is more guidance in the coming days to help navigate the unknowns,” Blyth said.

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    Trump’s Immigration Crackdown Could Disrupt St. Louis’s Growth Strategy

    At a high-traffic intersection on the south side of St. Louis, in a former bank building complete with a glassy atrium, it’s time for sewing class — held in Dari, the Afghan variant of Persian.Listen to this article with reporter commentaryThe walls are hung with photos of Afghanistan, from which most of the students have recently arrived. Before class starts, a handful of women in sneakers and head scarves first go to another room for prayer, while their younger children scamper around a well-equipped play room. They return to dated sewing machines, learning how to run tiny businesses from their homes as they acclimate to their new country.The two-year-old Afghan Community Center has been an anchor for Halima Osmani, 20, who arrived from Afghanistan last summer with her parents and seven siblings. She now runs her own tailoring business, selling to local women through an Instagram account, while she works on getting her G.E.D. Eventually, she wants to become a physician assistant, and St. Louis seems like a good place to fulfill her dreams.“Our first choice was Virginia, but we ended up here and liked it,” Ms. Osmani said through a translator; she is still learning English. “The first thing we noticed here was that it wasn’t crowded.”Not being crowded — that’s both a problem and an opportunity for the grand but diminished city, which has been losing population for decades. The city’s politicians, business community, religious institutions and philanthropists have embraced a push to reverse that trend through immigration. In addition to refugees like Ms. Osmani, they’re trying to attract people from Central and South America, as well as international students and highly skilled professionals on employment visas.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Trump’s Tariffs Could Help Tesla, by Hurting Its Rivals More

    The electric car company led by Elon Musk builds all the cars it sells in the United States in California and Texas, shielding it from tariffs that could devastate competitors.As President Trump puts new tariffs on goods from China and threatens a trade war with allies like Mexico and Canada, one global company is likely to suffer less than most of its competitors: Tesla.But the electric car maker led by Elon Musk, which accounts for a third of the billionaire’s wealth, is also vulnerable if relations with China worsen. That country is the company’s second-largest market after the United States and it produces more cars there than anywhere else.Tesla has built largely self-sufficient supply chains in the United States and China, a rarity in a world of interconnected trade. As a result, the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration on Chinese goods, and the continuing threat to put them on Mexican and Canadian products, might help Tesla by hurting its competitors more.Although there is no evidence that Mr. Musk is shaping trade policies, the tariffs are one of several measures adopted by the Trump administration that may benefit Tesla at the expense of its rivals. On Wednesday, Mr. Trump paused 25 percent tariffs on most autos and parts made in Canada and Mexico, but the reprieve expires in a month, leaving automakers in the United States that depend on foreign supply chains in a state of uncertainty.The Tesla factory in Austin, Texas, in 2023. Cars produced here will be shielded from tariffs that will hurt Tesla competitors. Go Nakamura/ReutersThe administration is also trying to eliminate financial support for the construction of fast-charging stations for electric vehicles, a move that could handicap companies seeking to compete with Tesla’s extensive network. And it is attempting to cut or eliminate loans and subsidies that competitors like Ford Motor and Rivian are using to finance electric vehicle and battery factories.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Trump’s Delay on Mexico and Canada Tariffs Came in Response to Market Revolt

    With prices still high, the Trump administration is heeding the risks of fanning inflation with import duties.A month ago, President Trump announced that he would impose sweeping tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico before reaching a last-minute deal to delay them for 30 days.This week, after markets revolted when the tariffs were put in place, Mr. Trump watered them down with a monthlong reprieve for automakers.And then on Thursday, he opened up even broader exemptions for many other products that are imported from America’s neighbors to the north and south after intense lobbying from business groups that warned of rising prices.Mr. Trump has spent the last month or so bouncing between imposing sweeping tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico and delaying them because of last-minute deals.“There will,” he said, “always be changes and adjustments.”Despite Mr. Trump’s insistence that “tariff” is among his favorite words, the waffling over import duties reflects the reality that steep import taxes are not an antidote for every policy problem facing the nation.Mr. Trump’s economic advisers continue to contend that the tariffs are part of a broader agenda that will not damage the economy. However, the delays and loopholes reveal that they are beginning to see the risks of taking tariffs too far at a time when the economy is showing signs of strain and consumers are still reeling from inflation.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Powell Says the Fed Is in No Hurry to Adjust Rates Amid Trump Policy Uncertainty

    Jerome H. Powell says the Fed is focused on separating “signal from the noise,” as the president whipsaws on tariffs.Jerome H. Powell, chair of the Federal Reserve, said the central bank is focused on the “net effect” of President Trump’s sweeping economic agenda amid high uncertainty about which policies will actually be enacted, as he reiterated that officials are still not in a “hurry” to adjust interest rates.“As we parse the incoming information, we are focused on separating the signal from the noise as the outlook evolves,” Mr. Powell said at an event on Friday. “We do not need to be in a hurry, and are well positioned to wait for greater clarity.”If inflation stays sticky but the economy remains strong, the Fed chair said the central bank can “maintain policy restraint for longer.” But if either the labor market were to weaken more than expected, or inflation were to rapidly decline, Mr. Powell said officials can “ease policy accordingly.”His comments underscore the delicate balancing act that Fed is trying to navigate at a tenuous moment for the economy.In an interview on Friday, Austan D. Goolsbee, president of the Chicago Fed and a voting member on this year’s policy-setting committee, warned that a situation in which inflation stayed sticky while growth deteriorated at the same time would be a “harder problem” for the Fed to solve and something that is increasingly “on the radar screen” as a result of the policies that Mr. Trump is pursuing.“Tariffs on intermediate goods are a negative supply shock,” he said, referring to goods that are used to make other products and services for consumers. “If there were large negative supply shocks that were to hit the economy, they would have a tendency to both drive down employment and drive up prices.”We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Justice Department is looking into egg prices in antitrust probe, report says

    Eggs are displayed for sale in a Manhattan grocery store in New York City on Feb. 25, 2025.
    Spencer Platt | Getty Images

    The U.S. Justice Department has opened an investigation into potential antitrust issues related to the surging price of eggs, The Wall Street Journal reported Friday, citing people familiar with the matter.
    The investigation, which is in its early stages, includes a look at whether large egg producers have worked together to raise prices or reduce supply, the report said.

    The news comes as the price of eggs has soared, leading some restaurants to announce menu changes and reports of grocery stores with empty shelves. For example, Denny’s announced last month that it was passing along rising egg costs to customers in the form of a surcharge.
    In the latest consumer price index report, Bureau of Labor Statistics data showed the price of eggs up 53% year over year. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the cost of eggs rose 15.2% just between December and January. This marked the largest increase in the eggs index since June 2015.
    The price increases appear to be at least in part due to an outbreak of avian flu that has led egg producers to cull their populations. However, advocacy group Farm Action sent a letter last month to the DOJ and Federal Trade Commission, calling for an investigation into other causes.
    CNBC has not independently confirmed that this investigation is ongoing. The Justice Department did not immediately respond to CNBC’s request for comment.

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    Jobs Report Is Steady, but Impact of Federal Cutbacks and Tariffs Looms

    Employers added 151,000 jobs in February, the Labor Department said, based on surveys taken as Trump administration policies were still rolling out.It might be a moment of hush before chaos ensues, or it may be business as usual.U.S. employers added 151,000 jobs in February, the first full month under the new Trump administration, the Labor Department reported on Friday. The gain extended a streak of job growth to 50 months. The unemployment rate ticked up slightly, to 4.1 percent, from 4 percent in January.The report showed a decline of 10,000 in federal employment. But it was based on surveys conducted in the second week of February, as the Trump administration’s mass firings, buyouts and hiring freezes at federal agencies were still unfolding.The survey has likely not registered “more than a sliver of the full impact from federal government layoffs,” said Preston Caldwell, chief U.S. economist at Morningstar. “That should change in next month’s job report.”The monthly change in federal government jobs.

    Source: Bureau of Labor StatisticsBy The New York TimesA similar waiting game is in store for those hoping to ascertain the effects that President Trump’s tariffs — those imposed and those still threatened — may have on global trading partners, business investment and employment.Even without the shake-up in foreign trade and federal employment, private-sector hiring has slowed substantially from the blowout pace of 2021 to 2023. That has left labor market analysts and financial commentators gearing up for a potential cooling in economic growth this year.Unemployment rate More