Evelyn Reynolds

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    Inflation Is Basically Back to Normal. Why Do Voters Still Feel Blah?

    Consumers still give the economy poor marks, though the job market is strong and price increases have faded for months.Grocery inflation has been cooling sharply, but Tamira Flamer, 27, says she hasn’t noticed. What she knows is that paper plates and meat remain more expensive than they were a few years ago.“I feel like it’s been rough,” said Ms. Flamer, a mother of two who drives for Amazon, while standing outside a Dollar General near her home in Norristown, Pa., on Sunday.Ms. Flamer, an undecided voter who says she is most focused on economic issues, underscores a challenge for Vice President Kamala Harris as the presidential election barrels toward its final days.Voters say that they are very focused on the economy as they head to the polls, yet surveys suggest that they feel relatively glum about its recent track record. That could hurt Ms. Harris while helping her opponent, former President Donald J. Trump.The lingering pessimism is also something of a puzzle. The job market has been chugging along, although more slowly, overall growth has been healthy and even inflation is more or less back to normal. Inflation data released on Thursday showed that prices have increased by a mild 2.1 percent over the past year.Confidence has crept back up as inflation has cooled, but it remains much lower than it was the last time the economy looked as solid as it does today. That is true for both the University of Michigan’s confidence index and a separate measure produced by the Conference Board, an organization that conducts business and economic research.Large Swing in Republican ConfidenceRepublicans were optimistic about the economy when former President Donald J. Trump was in office, and turned more negative as soon as President Biden was elected.

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    Consumer Confidence Index
    Source: University of Michigan By The New York TimesWe are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Sovereign debt is the biggest risk to global growth in 2025, Saudi finance minister says

    “I think globally, the serious, serious issue that we need to watch is sovereign debt,” Mohammed Al-Jadaan told CNBC in Riyadh.
    Global public debt hit a record $97 trillion in 2023, prompting the United Nations to call for urgent reforms for governments and financial systems around the world.

    RIYADH — National debt is a major threat to markets in the near future, Saudi Arabia’s finance minister said, expressing particular concern over lower income countries as well as what he described as rapidly growing global fragmentation.
    “I think globally, the serious, serious issue that we need to watch is sovereign debt issues, particularly in low-income countries and emerging economies that do not have the fiscal buffers to lean into in case of disruptions in the market,” Mohammed Al-Jadaan told CNBC’s Dan Murphy Wednesday from the Future Investment Initiative in Riyadh.

    “And hopefully between the IMF and the G20 we will find a solution, and we will be ready to support the world economy in case of shocks in that area, but it is an area that we need to watch, as global leaders, to make sure that it doesn’t surprise us.”
    Al-Jadaan earlier in the conversation noted the importance of reaching a soft landing for economies as central banks attempt to manage inflation.
    “We came from Washington two days ago, after a week full of meetings at IMF and the World Bank and the G20, and I think a there is a clear recognition that the world is actually proving to be resilient,” he said. “And a lot of discussion around steering the soft landing, which is very important. The key challenge is actually sovereign debt, and a lot of discussion throughout last week is to make sure that the three institutions work together to try and find a solution to the sovereign debt, particularly in low-income countries.”
    Global public debt hit a record $97 trillion in 2023, prompting the United Nations to call for urgent reforms for governments and financial systems around the world.

    Saudi Finance Minister Mohammed al-Jadaan attends a panel panel at the annual Future Investment Initiative (FII) conference in Riyadh on October 25, 2023. (Photo by Fayez Nureldine / AFP) (Photo by FAYEZ NURELDINE/AFP via Getty Images)
    Fayez Nureldine | Afp | Getty Images

    Particularly in Africa, the UN wrote in a June report this year, “faltering economies in the wake of multiple global crises have resulted in a heavier debt burden.” The number of African countries with debt-to-GDP rations surpassing 60% has more than quadrupled from 6 to 27 between 2013 and 2023, the report said.

    Paying back debt has also become more expensive, hitting emerging market and developing countries more intensely.
    “I think the painful fact is that low-income countries, a lot of them, are now having today their debt service that is actually more [costly] than their health care, education and climate action combined,” Al-Jadaan said Wednesday.
    “That is not good for the world, and we need to make sure that we find a solution to that. Hopefully we will, and we are working collectively global to reach that solution.” More

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    Walmart Holiday Shopping Plans Are Laid Months Before Black Friday

    To prepare for ever-longer shopping season, thousands of employees were assembled for a retail jamboree in Florida’s August heat.It felt like calculated chaos inside the chilly convention center where Walmart had recreated one of its Supercenter stores. It was late August in Orlando, Fla., and the retailer had flown in thousands of workers to have a look. They were zipping around, trying to take it all in.There were dozens of lit-up Christmas trees and poinsettias, rows of Halloween candy, and racks of knit dresses and sweaters. A Minnie Mouse mascot danced around the toy section, while wacky inflatable ghosts and foxes hovered above the inflatable jack-o’-lanterns in a pumpkin patch. Along the way, Walmart workers were chowing down on samples of pulled pork and chips, Oreo cookies and ice cream.A candy cane door frame welcomed people to the North Pole — and into Walmart’s annual business meeting for the holiday shopping season.On that sweltering day, the nation’s largest retailer was trying to set the mood for holidays that were still months off. But foremost on the agenda for the 6,700 attendees was Walmart’s slate of fall and winter events.Beyond the festive mood, the holiday season is full of high stakes. It’s the busiest quarter of the year for most retailers, and Walmart’s preparations offer insights into consumer behavior and the state of the retail industry.Last year, Walmart began to see people starting their holiday shopping in earnest around Halloween.Todd Anderson for The New York TimesWe are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    New York State Chosen as National Center for Chip Manufacturing Research

    The Biden administration will place a hub of a newly created national semiconductor technology center in upstate New York.The Biden administration is set to announce on Thursday that it will invest an estimated $825 million in a new federally funded semiconductor research facility in upstate New York.The decision to locate the facility in Albany comes after a long-running push by Senator Chuck Schumer, the majority leader and a Democrat of New York, to base it in his home state.Albany will serve as one major hub of a bigger organization, the National Semiconductor Technology Center, which will focus on computer chip research and development, Mr. Schumer’s office said. The center is a key part of the Biden administration’s efforts to revitalize American high-tech manufacturing and lessen the country’s dependence on foreign sources of technology.The New York site will focus on research into the complex machinery that is necessary to manufacture chips. The locations of the other two hubs, which will focus on how chips are designed and packaged together, will be announced later.Mr. Schumer said in an interview on Wednesday that the New York investment would produce research that benefited the country, cement U.S. leadership in advanced chip technology over China and provide a major source of manufacturing employment for the area.“This is historic,” he said. “It’s going to keep our country, our national security and our economic security way ahead.”We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Polls Show Trump’s Edge Shrinking on Voters’ Top Issue: The Economy

    It remains priority No. 1 for many voters, particularly those who are still undecided, according to Times/Siena polling. But can Kamala Harris translate her gains into votes?The economy is still the No. 1 issue in the presidential election. Voters rated it as their top priority in the latest New York Times/Siena College poll, as they have in every Times/Siena poll this year.And while former President Donald J. Trump remains the more trusted candidate in terms of handling the economy, Vice President Kamala Harris has closed much of the gap.Ms. Harris is in an unusual position, running as a sitting vice president alongside an unpopular president. Many voters say President Biden’s policies have hurt them — more than say the same about Mr. Trump’s policies — and economic concerns are a large driver of those feelings, recent polls show.Large majorities of voters rate the economy as only fair or poor, even though inflation has cooled and many other traditional indicators are positive. (Though experts note that concerns about inflation often linger, even as inflation rates lower.)But Ms. Harris has made some gains on the economy. In a September Times/Siena poll, likely voters favored Mr. Trump’s handling of the economy by 13 percentage points; that lead had shrunk to just six percentage points in the latest Times/Siena poll, which was conducted last week. Other pollsters have shown similar gains for the vice president on the issue.

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    Regardless of how you might vote, do you trust Kamala Harris or Donald Trump to do a better job on the economy?
    Notes: Question wording has been condensed. Margins are calculated using unrounded percentages. Sources: New York Times/Siena College surveys among likely voters conducted Sept. 3 to 6, 2024; Sept. 11 to 16, 2024; and Oct. 20 to 23, 2024. By The New York TimesMost currently view the economy negativelyThinking about the nation’s economy, how would you rate economic conditions today?

    Notes: Among registered voters. Question wording varies slightly by pollster. Sources: Roper Center for Public Opinion Research, ABC News, Bloomberg News, Consumer Comfort Index: State of the Economy, SSRS, NORC, Washington Post, New York Times/Siena College.By The New York TimesWe are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Can Democrats Win Back Voters From Trump on Trade Policy?

    The Biden administration has pursued a big shift in trade policy, but it’s not clear whether that will be enough to win votes.Since Donald J. Trump won over many working-class voters in 2016 with his vows to impose tariffs and rework “disastrous” trade deals, Democrats have been scrambling to win back supporters by taking a more protectionist trade approach.Over the last four years, the Biden administration spent more time emphasizing the harm trade policy has caused to American communities than the benefits. It hit the brakes on negotiating trade deals with other countries and chose to maintain and even increase Mr. Trump’s tariffs on Chinese products. And it pumped billions of dollars into new American factories to make semiconductors and solar panels.It’s a significant shift from the decades that both mainstream Democrats and Republicans spent working to promote trade and lower international barriers.For Vice President Kamala Harris, next week’s election will be a moment of truth for whether the strategy worked.Mr. Trump has helped bring trade to the forefront in presidential elections with his vitriolic criticisms of past policy and his proposals for high tariffs. It is an issue that resonates strongly with voters in Northern swing states like Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, where manufacturing employment fell steeply in recent decades as factories moved abroad.Biden officials have been trying to persuade more trade-skeptical voters that their policies to encourage manufacturing in the United States are working, pointing to a recent surge in U.S. factory construction.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Ray Dalio concerned about America postelection: ‘Both candidates worry me’

    A postelection America worries U.S. billionaire Ray Dalio.
    Speaking at the Future Investment Initiative conference in Saudi Arabia on Wednesday, Dalio spoke about major geopolitical and election-related concerns.
    Dalio said he continues to be concerned about the increase in U.S. Treasury supply.

    Ray Dalio speaking with CNBC at the Future Investment Initiative in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on Oct. 30, 2024.

    A postelection America worries U.S. billionaire Ray Dalio, who called for reforms numerous times amid a political landscape rife with what he views as irreconcilable differences between both Democratic and Republican parties.
    Speaking at the Future Investment Initiative conference in Saudi Arabia on Wednesday, the founder of the investment firm Bridgewater Associates spoke about major geopolitical and election-related concerns, the issue of rising U.S. deficit and how investors can best position their portfolios.

    “Both of the candidates worry me,” Dalio told CNBC. “This left, right and fighting each other is a problem as it becomes more of the extremes. I think there needs to be a bringing of Americans together, that middle of that, and making great reforms. … There needs to be a strong leader of the middle, I believe, that makes great reforms. … Neither of the candidates does that for me.”
    Dalio noted that Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump is “a lot more capitalist” than Democratic candidate Kamala Harris, and therefore better for domestic capital markets. However, he warned that there will be big deficits in an economy run by either party. Both candidates have major differences, including in tax policies, he added, noting that Trump’s plan to collect greater tariff revenue could lead to a spike in prices depending on how much that revenue is converted into internal productivity.
    Consequences of the election are “really more a left-right question, and it’s a shame because we need to bring the country together in a smart way and make great reforms. We need to do that,” Dalio said. “The debt is concerning, the internal conflict is concerning, the external conflict is concerning and certainly the climate and the cost of the climate is concerning.”

    Dalio said he continues to be concerned about the increase in U.S. Treasury supply. About a third of U.S. Treasurys are held by foreigners, leading to a supply-demand issue that has more upside than downside risk for investors, he said.
    “We have a real debt problem. … I think one man’s debts is another man’s assets,” Dalio said. “Treasury market is basis of all capital formation. At some point, when you combine it with the internal conflict issue, if you have a downturn — when the downturn comes — I’m worried about internal political and social conflict.”
    When positioning one’s portfolio, the famed investor said gold should be part of a diversified and balanced strategy that reduces overall risk.

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    New Jersey Democrats Work to Flip House Seat

    Sue Altman has made a name for herself by taking on political heavy hitters in New Jersey.First was Chris Christie, the famously pugnacious Republican governor, who, during a 2016 town hall, was so exasperated by her questions about education funding that he tossed his microphone to her.Three years later, she tangled with George Norcross III, then among the state’s most influential Democratic power brokers, as she led a drumbeat of criticism against corporate tax breaks awarded to companies with close ties to him.Now Ms. Altman is seeking to unseat Thomas Kean Jr., a first-term Republican congressman who is the scion and namesake of a former governor, in one of a handful of races nationwide that will determine whether Republicans retain control of the House.The result of Tuesday’s election in New Jersey’s Seventh Congressional District may say a lot about how Mr. Kean, 56, has campaigned in the race, where recent polls have prompted Democrats to mount a last-minute push in hopes of flipping the seat.Mr. Kean, a son of a former Republican governor, was elected to the House two years ago.Bryan Anselm for The New York TimesBut it also may offer insight into the direction of New Jersey and of suburban swing districts like the Seventh, an affluent and well-educated region split nearly evenly between Republicans and Democrats. President Biden beat Donald J. Trump there by four points in 2020, but two years later Mr. Kean beat the Democratic incumbent, Tom Malinowski, by about three points.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More