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    JPMorgan backs off recession call even with ‘very elevated’ risks

    JPMorgan Chase economists on Friday bailed on their recession call.
    “Given this growth, we doubt the economy will quickly lose enough momentum to slip into a mild contraction as early as next quarter, as we had previously projected,” the bank’s lead economist said.
    Michael Feroli added that risk is not completely off the table. Specifically, he cited the danger of Fed policy that has seen 11 interest rate hikes implemented since March 2022.

    JPMorgan Chase economists on Friday bailed on their recession call, joining a growing Wall Street chorus that now thinks a contraction is no longer inevitable.
    While noting that risks are still high and growth ahead is likely to be slow, the bank’s forecasters think the data flow indicates a soft landing is possible. That comes despite a series of interest rate hikes enacted with the express intent of slowing the economy, and several other substantial headwinds.

    Michael Feroli, chief economist at the nation’s largest bank, told clients that recent metrics are indicating growth of about 2.5% in the third quarter, compared with JPMorgan’s previous forecast for just a 0.5% expansion.
    “Given this growth, we doubt the economy will quickly lose enough momentum to slip into a mild contraction as early as next quarter, as we had previously projected,” Feroli wrote.
    Along with positive data, he pointed to the resolution of the debt ceiling impasse in Congress as well as the containment of a banking crisis in March as potential headwinds that have since been removed.
    Also, he noted productivity gains, due in part to the broader implementation of artificial intelligence, and improved labor supply even as hiring has softened in recent months.
    Rate risk
    However, Feroli said risk is not completely off the table. Specifically, he cited the danger of Fed policy that has seen 11 interest rate hikes implemented since March 2022. Those increases have totaled 5.25 percentage points, yet inflation is still holding well above the central bank’s 2% target.

    “While a recession is no longer our modal scenario, risk of a downturn is still very elevated. One way this risk could materialize is if the Fed is not done hiking rates,” Feroli said. “Another way in which recession risks could materialize is if the normal lagged effects of the tightening already delivered kick in.”
    Feroli said he doesn’t expect the Fed to start cutting rates until the third quarter of 2024. Current market pricing is indicating the first cut could come as soon as March 2024, according to CME Group data.
    Market pricing also points strongly toward a recession.
    A New York Fed indicator that tracks the difference between 3-month and 10-year Treasury yields is pointing to a 66% chance of a contraction in the next 12 months, according to an update Friday. The so-called inverted yield curve has been a reliable recession predictor in data going all the way back to 1959.
    Changing mood
    However, the mood on Wall Street has changed about the economy.
    Earlier this week, Bank of America also threw in the towel on its recession call, telling clients that “recent incoming data has made us reassess” the forecast. The firm now sees growth this year of 2%, followed by 0.7% in 2024 and 1.8% in 2025.
    Goldman Sachs also recently lowered its probability for a recession to 20%, down from 25%.
    Federal Reserve GDP projections in June pointed to respective annual growth levels ahead of 1%, 1.1% and 1.8%. Chairman Jerome Powell said last week that the Fed’s economists no longer think a credit contraction will lead to a mild recession this year.
    — CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed to this report. More

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    The story of inflation, as told through your child’s backpack

    Rising costs are weighing on families this back-to-school season.
    An average family with children in elementary through high school plans to spend a record $890.07 on back-to-school items this year, according to a survey.
    CNBC used the producer price index to track how the costs of making items typically purchased for students has changed between 2019 and 2023.

    Jamie Grill | Getty Images

    Back-to-school shopping hasn’t been easy this year for Lauren Cyr.
    The mother of three has searched for deals and spread out her shopping across multiple paychecks. Still, the 31-year-old sees higher price tags on everything from backpacks to paper — and the summer ritual is squeezing her family budget more than it did in prior years.

    “Before I even went shopping, I will tell you, I had a full-on panic attack and cried,” said Cyr, a customer service manager living in Ruskin, Florida. “It’s just a headache.”
    Cyr isn’t alone. An average family with children in elementary through high school plans to spend a record $890.07 on back-to-school items this year, according to a survey of more than 7,800 consumers released last month by the National Retail Federation and Prosper Insights and Analytics. Total spending on school-related items for students in these grades is expected to climb to a new high of $41.5 billion.
    There is, however, a silver lining: Back-to-school shoppers were less likely to say they are spending more because of higher prices in 2023 than in 2022, according to the NRF data. Instead, consumers have reported that purchases of more supplies and bigger-ticket items have contributed to higher spending this year.
    Still, rising costs can leave millions of Americans in a lurch as they try to fill the backpacks of school-age children this year. While inflation has broadly slowed, consumers may not feel any respite as prices of school supplies are still rising.
    “For the average family, there’s going to be sticker shock,” said Jay Zagorsky, a professor at Boston University’s Questrom School of Business.

    He said shoppers should not insist on buying a specific item or brand as prices rise. “By being flexible in what you’re purchasing, you can actually come away with both a happy child and a happy wallet.”

    CNBC used the producer price index — a closely followed gauge of inflation on businesses measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics — to track how the costs of making items typically purchased for students has changed between 2019 and 2023. PPI data breaks out the changing costs of specific items through a sampling of wholesalers.
    Those producers can then pass added expenses onto consumers in the form of smaller products or higher prices.
    Retailers from Gap to Kohl’s are trying to woo consumers with deals as prices go up. Walmart said it has kept the school supply basket at the same price as last year by offering common items such as backpacks starting at $6. Target kicked off the back-to-school season in early July with a special sale for customers who belong to its loyalty program.
    The federal data is not a perfect representation of the change in spending, as the amount customers pay can vary by brand, store or location. Prices may also not perfectly match the path of inflation because the products are made and ordered by retailers months before back-to-school season ramps up, according to Zagorsky.
    But the federal data can offer insight into how much more consumers across the country are paying for key items as children head back to the classroom.

    Paper

    Two data points measure the changing cost of paper.
    First, there’s the classic writing and printing paper. There are also tablets and pads of paper.
    Prices of both fell early during the Covid-19 pandemic before surging. Paper cost producers about 24% more in June 2023 than it did the same month four years prior, while tablets and pads were up 33.1% during that period.

    Writing, art and office supplies

    The price of products such as glue and pencils is also rising.
    Inflation for pens, markers and mechanical pencils — as well as parts associated with these products — appears to have peaked. But prices were 13% higher in June 2023 than in the same month in 2019.
    The rate of inflation for a group of goods that includes lead pencils and other supplies typically used in offices and for art has moved similarly. Prices climbed 23.2% from June 2019 to June 2023.

    Backpacks

    Perhaps the most iconic symbol of a student is also more expensive to produce.
    Backpack prices have increased less than they have for other goods, but they are still 10.5% higher in June 2023 than they were in the same month in 2019.

    — CNBC’s Gabriel Cortes and Melissa Repko contributed to this report. More

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    Black unemployment rate ticks lower in July as jobs market remains tight

    The jobless rate for Black workers fell to 5.8% in July, Labor Department data showed Friday. That’s down from 6.0% in June and lower than the 6.0% rate from the year-ago period.
    Hispanic workers’ overall unemployment rate ticked slightly higher to 4.4% in July from 4.3% in June.
    Asian workers’ unemployment rate fell to 2.3% in July, a 0.9 percentage point drop from 3.2% in June.

    Workers install solar panels during the completion phase of a 4-acre solar rooftop atop AltaSea’s research and development facility at the Port of Los Angeles, in the San Pedro neighborhood, on April 21, 2023 in Los Angeles, California.
    Mario Tama | Getty Images

    The unemployment rate for Black workers fell slightly in July as the broader labor market remains tight.
    Black workers’ jobless rate fell to 5.8%, according to the Labor Department on Friday. That’s down from 6.0% in June. It’s also lower than the 6.0% rate from the year-ago period. Broken down by gender, Black men’s unemployment rate fell to 5.3% in July from 5.9% in June. Meanwhile, Black women’s jobless rate declined to 5.2%, down from 5.4% the prior month.

    Those figures reflect continued tightness in the broader labor market. In July, the U.S. unemployment rate was little changed at 3.5%, which is just above the lowest level since late 1969.
    “It shows that the labor market is strong and in a good place,” Economic Policy Institute’s Valerie Wilson said. “Even with the hikes, the interest rate hikes, that the Federal Reserve has been implementing, we continue to see unemployment remain low.”

    For Black workers, the labor force participation rate, which measures the number of people who are employed or seeking work, also ticked slightly higher, to 62.7%.
    The unemployment rate for Hispanic workers also ticked slightly higher, to 4.4% in July from 4.3% in June. The rate for Hispanic men rose to 4.0% from 3.8%. Hispanic women’s rate declined slightly to 4.0% from 4.1%.
    Wilson, director of EPI’s program on race, ethnicity and the economy, said the slight rise could be due in part to the higher unemployment rates across the leisure and hospitality industries, transportation and utilities, as well as construction.

    “It seems to me that some of these patterns are related to what’s happening in industries where different groups of workers are a larger share of those employed in those industries,” Wilson said.
    Meanwhile, Asian workers’ unemployment rate fell to 2.3% in July, a 0.9 percentage point drop from 3.2% in June.

    Overall, however, Wilson said, the report showed a positive trend for the labor market, particularly as wage growth continues to show strength even as inflation declines. In July, average hourly earnings gained 0.4% for the month, higher than the 0.3% estimate from economists polled by Dow Jones.
    “We’re actually seeing now that inflation is falling faster than wage growth is slowing, which means that real wages are actually growing,” Wilson said.
    “Those are signals that we can have a so-called soft landing as the Fed tries to manage and address inflation while also trying to make sure that we continue to have a strong labor market,” Wilson added.
    — CNBC’s Jeff Cox contributed reporting. More

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    Here’s where the jobs are for July 2023 — in one chart

    The health care and social assistance category grew by 87,100 jobs last month, according to the Labor Department.
    That total jumped to 100,000 when including education jobs, as some economists do.

    The labor market added a smaller-than-expected 187,000 jobs in July, but one sector delivered roughly half of that total.
    The health care and social assistance category grew by 87,100 jobs last month, according to the Labor Department. That total jumped to 100,000 when including education jobs, as some economists do.

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    Health care and social assistance added more than 70,000 jobs in each of the prior two months as well. Ambulatory care services alone added 35,000 jobs in July.
    “Healthcare alone has accounted for 35% of the job gains in the past 3 months, with the industry’s employment increasing at a 4.4% annualised pace. That’s likely to slow as industry employment is now well ahead of prepandemic levels,” Preston Caldwell, chief U.S. economist at Morningstar, said in a note.
    Two other bright spots were construction and financial activities, which added 19,000 jobs each.
    Several categories shed jobs, however, led to the downside by a 12,000 net loss for information.
    Professional and business services also lost about 8,000 jobs. That was driven by a loss of more than 22,000 jobs for temporary help services, which could be an early warning sign that the labor market is weakening.
    “We also see signs that firms are looking to cut labour usage by the fact that temporary help employment is falling (down 5% Y/Y and falling sharply in the last several months). … Temporary help employment was a leading indicator of overall employment in the 2001 and 2008 recessions,” Caldwell said. More

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    The U.S. economy added 187,000 jobs in July, fewer than expected

    Nonfarm payrolls expanded by 187,000 for July, slightly below the Dow Jones estimate for 200,000.
    The unemployment rate was 3.5%, against a consensus estimate that the jobless level would hold steady at 3.6%.
    Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% for the month, good for a 4.4% annual pace, both above expectations.
    Health care, social assistance, financial activities and wholesale trade were the leading sectors for job creation.

    Job growth in July was less than expected, pointing to slower growth in the U.S. economy, the Labor Department reported Friday.
    Nonfarm payrolls expanded by 187,000 for the month, slightly below the Dow Jones estimate for 200,000. Though the headline number was a miss, it actually represented a modest gain from the downwardly revised 185,000 for June.

    The unemployment rate was 3.5%, against a consensus estimate that the jobless level would hold steady at 3.6%.The rate is just above the lowest level since late 1969.
    Average hourly earnings, a key figure as the Federal Reserve fights inflation, rose 0.4% for the month, good for a 4.4% annual pace. Both numbers were higher than the respective estimates for 0.3% and 4.2%.

    Another important figure, the labor force participation rate held at 62.6%, the fifth straight month at that level. A more encompassing unemployment rate that includes discouraged workers and those holding part-time jobs for economic reasons fell to 6.7%, down 0.2 percentage point from June. The survey of households, which is used to calculate the unemployment rate, showed a more robust gain of 268,000.
    Health care led job creation by industry, adding 63,000 jobs for the month. Other sectors contributing included social assistance (24,000), financial activities (19,000) and wholesale trade (18,000). The other services category contributed 20,000 to the total, which included 11,000 from personal and laundry services.
    Leisure and hospitality, which has been a leading sector for most of the recovery in the Covid pandemic era, added just 17,000 jobs, consistent with a slowing trend after averaging gains of 67,000 a month in the first three months of 2023.

    Previous months’ totals were revised lower — the June count dropped to185,000, a downward revision of 24,000, while May was cut to 281,000, down 25,000 from the previous estimate.
    Even with the slowing job gains, the economy has proved resilient against a variety of challenges, particularly a series of 11 Federal Reserve interest rate hikes aimed at bringing down inflation.
    Most Wall Street experts have been forecasting a recession at least for the past year, but growth has managed to stay positive as consumers keep spending and the services sector rebounds from its pandemic-related disruptions.
    Gross domestic product gains have averaged 2.2% annualized for the first half of 2023, and the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracker of growth is pointing to a 3.9% gain for the third quarter.
    However, Fed officials including Chairman Jerome Powell have warned that the full effect of the rate increases has not been felt yet. Economists worry that the Fed could overtighten and send the economy into recession.
    Inflation data of late has been moving in the right direction. However, the Fed’s preferred gauge is still showing prices rising at a 4.1% annual rate, or more than double the central bank target.
    Wages have been one component of the inflation picture. Average hourly earnings had been declining, though the annual figures are somewhat distorted by comparisons to a year ago when wages were surging.
    A Labor Department gauge that the Fed follows closely showed compensation costs rising at a 4.5% 12-month rate through the second quarter. That level is not consistent with the Fed’s inflation target.
    At the same time, recession fears on Wall Street appear to be ebbing. Goldman Sachs has been slowly reducing its probability for a contraction, and Bank of America this week said it now thinks the U.S. could avoid a recession completely. More

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    Las Vegas Suffers as Nevada Economy Droops, Costing Jobs

    Pedro Alvarez never imagined his high school job delivering filet mignon and sautéed lobster tail to rooms at the Tropicana Las Vegas would turn into a longtime career.But in a city that sells itself as a place to disappear into decadence, if for only a weekend, providing room service to tourists along the Strip proved to be a stable job, at times even a lucrative one, for more than 30 years.“Movie stars and thousands of dollars in tips,” Mr. Alvarez, 53, said. “If it was up to me, I was never going to leave.”Yet when the Strip shut down for more than two months early in the coronavirus pandemic, Mr. Alvarez became one of tens of thousands of hospitality workers in Nevada to lose their jobs. After the hotel reopened, managers told him that they were discontinuing room service, at least for a while. Since then, he has bounced between jobs, working in concessions and banquets.“It’s been an uphill climb to find full-time work,” he said.Nevada is an outlier in the pandemic recovery. While the U.S. economy has bounced back and weathered a steep ratcheting-up of interest rates — and even as many Americans catch up on vacation travel that the coronavirus derailed — the Silver State has been left behind.Job numbers nationwide have continued to increase every month for more than two years, but the unemployment rate has remained stubbornly high in Nevada, a political swing state whose economic outlook often has national implications.The state has had the highest unemployment rate in the nation for the past year, currently at 5.4 percent, compared with the national rate of 3.6 percent; in Las Vegas, it’s around 6 percent.Because of Nevada’s reliance on gambling, tourism and hospitality — a lack of economic diversity that worries elected officials amid fears of a nationwide recession — the state was exceptionally hard hit during the shutdowns on the Strip. Unemployment in the state reached 30 percent in April 2020.And although the situation has improved drastically since then — over the past year, employment increased 4 percent, among the highest rates in the country — Nevada was in a deeper hole than other states.“This leads to a bit of a paradox,” said David Schmidt, the chief economist for the Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation. “We are seeing rapid job gains, but have unemployment that is higher than other states.”Nearly a quarter of jobs in Nevada are in leisure and hospitality, and international travel to Las Vegas is down by about 40 percent since 2019, including drops in visits from China, where the economy is slowing, and the United Kingdom, according to an estimate from the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority.Tourists on the Strip. International travel to Las Vegas is down about 40 percent from 2019.Gabriella Angotti-Jones for The New York TimesTo-go drinks for sale outside Planet Hollywood Las Vegas Resort & Casino. Gabriella Angotti-Jones for The New York TimesUnion officials say there are about 20 percent fewer hospitality workers in the city than before the pandemic.Gov. Joe Lombardo acknowledged the state’s high unemployment in a statement, saying that “many of our businesses and much of our work force are still recovering from the turmoil of the pandemic.”“The long-term economic solution to Nevada’s employment and work force challenges begins with diversifying our economy, investing in work force development and training,” said Mr. Lombardo, a Republican, who unseated a Democrat last year in a tight race in which he attacked his opponent and President Biden over the economy.The state is making progress toward those diversification goals, Mr. Lombardo said, citing Elon Musk’s announcement in January that Tesla would invest $3.6 billion in the company’s Gigafactory outside Reno to produce electric semi trucks and advanced battery cells, vowing to add 3,000 jobs.Major League Baseball is preparing for the relocation of the Oakland Athletics to Las Vegas, where a stadium to be built adjacent to the Strip will, by some projections, create 14,000 construction jobs. The Las Vegas Grand Prix — signifying Formula 1 racing’s return to the city for the first time since the 1980s — is expected to draw huge crowds this fall, as is the Super Bowl in 2024.Despite the state’s unemployment rate, the fact that the economy is trending in the right direction, both locally and nationally, bodes well for Mr. Biden’s chances in the state as the 2024 campaign begins, said Dan Lee, a professor of political science at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas.“Should it remain on the right track,” Mr. Lee said, “that’s clearly good for the incumbent.”But a potential complication lies ahead.The Culinary Workers Union Local 226, which represents 60,000 hotel workers, has been in talks since April on a new contract to replace the five-year agreement that expired in June. The union could take a strike authorization vote this fall in an attempt to pressure major hotels, including MGM Resorts International, Caesars Entertainment and other casino companies, to give pay raises and bring back more full-time jobs.More than a potential strike, the union, which estimates it has 10,000 members who remain out of work since the pandemic started, is a critical bloc of Mr. Biden’s Democratic base in Nevada. In 2020, Mr. Biden won the state by roughly two percentage points in part because of a huge ground operation by the culinary union. Those members could be difficult to organize should a shaky economic climate in the state persist.“Companies cut workers during the pandemic, and now these same companies are making record profits but don’t want to bring back enough workers to do the work,” said Ted Pappageorge, the head of the local, which is affiliated with the union UNITE HERE. “Workload issues are impacting all departments.”Juanita Miles has struggled to find steady income since the pandemic hit.Gabriella Angotti-Jones for The New York TimesFor Juanita Miles, landing a stable, full-time job has been challenging.For much of the past decade, she worked as a security guard, patching together gigs at several hotels and restaurants. But when the pandemic hit and businesses closed, she realized she would need to pivot.“I’m now looking anywhere, for anything,” Ms. Miles, 49, recalled.In late 2020, she took a $19-an-hour job as a part-time dishwasher at the Wynn Las Vegas, Ms. Miles said, but the hotel soon reduced its staff and she lost her job. She returned, for a time, to working security at hotel pools, nightclubs and apartment complexes.But Ms. Miles started to feel increasingly unsafe on the job during her night shifts, she said, recounting the time a man who appeared to be high on drugs followed her onto her bus home early one morning after a shift.“I was no longer willing to risk my life,” Ms. Miles said inside an air-conditioned casino along the Strip where she had stopped for a respite from the 110-degree heat outside.As slot machines clanged in the background and people packed around craps tables, Ms. Miles reflected on the job interview she had just come from at a nearby Walgreens.She thought it had gone well, she said, and she hoped it would pan out. The $15-an-hour pay would help cover her $1,400 rent, as well as the other monthly bills — cellphone, $103; utilities, $200; groceries, $300 — that she splits with her husband, who works at a call center.“Things are going to be tight no matter what,” Ms. Miles said, adding that if offered the job, she still hoped to eventually find something with higher pay.Her dream, she said, is to open a day care center — a fulfilling job that would allow her to alleviate some of the pressure she knows rests on many parents.A worker busing a table at a restaurant inside a hotel. Nearly a quarter of jobs in Nevada are in leisure and hospitality.Gabriella Angotti-Jones for The New York TimesCarey Nash performed “End of the Road” by Boyz II Men for tourists on the Strip.Gabriella Angotti-Jones for The New York TimesFor Mr. Alvarez, the longtime Tropicana employee, any hope of returning to the job he long enjoyed is increasingly fleeting. The hotel, which opened in 1957, is on track to be demolished to make space for the new Athletics baseball stadium.“The city and the state seem to be on the rise,” he said. “But workers cannot be left behind.”After he lost his job at the Tropicana, Mr. Alvarez started working at Allegiant Stadium when it opened to fans in fall 2020.He helped set up platters of food in the stadium’s suites during football games, but the work, which was part time, ended when the season was over.“I was putting together two and sometimes three jobs, just to make enough to live,” he said.Several times during the pandemic, he said, he has feared he might lose his home in North Las Vegas, which he bought in 2008. (Eviction filings in the Las Vegas area in April were up 49 percent from before the pandemic, according to a report from The Eviction Lab at Princeton University.)He filed for unemployment benefits and eventually found part-time work at the Park MGM as a doorman. On a recent morning, Mr. Alvarez put on his gray vest and tie and prepared to begin his midday shift there.In June, the Vegas Golden Knights won the Stanley Cup finals at the T-Mobile Arena next door to the Park MGM. Witnessing the joy and celebration that swept through the hotel reminded him of why he had stayed in the industry.“Helping people and bringing them joy is what this city is all about,” he said. “I just hope I can keep doing this work.” More

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    Wages and Hiring Weigh on Minds of Company Executives

    As companies reported their latest quarterly earnings in recent weeks, hiring, wages and head counts were popular topics as analysts quizzed executives about their plans.Some said they were avoiding expanding their payrolls as rapidly as in the past. Others said that rising wages remained a worry for their bottom lines. And many still looking to hire said that attracting and retaining workers was difficult as the labor market remained robust.“You have to work extra to hire people and to keep people,” Andrew Watterson, the chief operating officer of Southwest Airlines, said on a call with analysts. “Our clients still grapple with labor shortages,” said Martine Ferland, who runs the consultancy Mercer.Even so, the rate of workers quitting their jobs, a measure of workers’ confidence in their prospects and bargaining power, continued to fall in June, according to data released Tuesday. “If you think about our turnover coming down, that means we don’t have as many people we’re hiring as we were before,” said Rick Cardenas, the chief executive of Darden Restaurants, owner of the Olive Garden chain.Wage growth has also cooled in recent months, but remained robust last month, rising 4.4 percent from a year earlier. “We still face above normal levels of wage and benefit cost inflation in our cost structure,” Andre Schulten, the finance chief at the consumer goods company Procter & Gamble, said on a call with analysts.Kathryn A. Mikells, the chief financial officer of Exxon Mobil, said that the oil giant had seen lower prices for some of its materials like chemicals and sand, but “as it relates to things where labor is a high component of the cost, I would say we’re not yet necessarily seeing that deflationary pressure coming through yet.”Anthony Wood, the chief executive of Roku, the streaming device maker, told analysts that the company would continue hiring, but planned to do so outside of the United States, in places where workers “are just less expensive than Silicon Valley engineers.”Other companies, especially in the tech industry, said that they had become more judicious about hiring, with some freezing payrolls or even cutting jobs.Mark Zuckerberg of Meta, which cut tens of thousands of jobs in multiple rounds of layoffs since late last year, said last week that “newly budgeted head count growth is going to be relatively low” at the company, which owns Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp. Sundar Pichai of Alphabet said that the tech giant would “continue to slow our expense growth and pace of hiring.” More