Evelyn Reynolds

A hiring sign is displayed in the window of a Chipotle on August 22, 2024 in Alexandria, Virginia. 
Anna Rose Layden | Getty Images

The unemployment rate among Black men saw a significant improvement in February – even as the rate ticked higher for U.S. workers in general.
The overall unemployment rate edged higher last month to 4.1% from 4% in January, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics report on Friday. Nonfarm payrolls growth also came out underwhelming, according to the data.

To be sure, the unemployment data for February comes amid a push from President Donald Trump and Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency to reduce the federal workforce. The full impact of those cuts have yet to unfold, and further uncertainties around the direction of the U.S. economy and tariff decisions could affect hiring, according to Elise Gould, senior economist at the Economic Policy Institute.
“It’s the calm before the storm,” she said. “We’re not seeing the layoffs in the data yet, for the most part.”

An improvement in unemployment rates for Black men in February
For Black men aged 20 and older, the unemployment rate notably declined to 5.5% in February from 6.9% in January. That latest number shows a drop back down near levels seen in December, which had a 5.6% unemployment rate for Black men in this cohort.
The unemployment rate for Black women came out at 5.4% in February, holding steady from January and December. Those results come after the rate spiked to 5.9% in November of last year. By comparison, the jobless rate among Black workers overall edged lower to 6% in February, down from 6.2% in January.
“You see a fair amount of volatility month-to-month. It’s a little hard to ignore the huge drop in the unemployment rate for Black men … that’s a positive indication,” Gould said.

Higher unemployment rates for Hispanic and white women
The unemployment rate for Hispanic women climbed to 5.1% in February, up from 4.5% in the prior month. Hispanic men saw a similar jump in the unemployment rate, which rose to 4.6% last month from 4.0%.
For white women, the unemployment rate ticked up to 3.4% in February from 3.3%, and for white men it rose to 3.5% last month from 3.1%. White workers overall saw the jobless rate climb to 3.8% in February from 3.5% in January.
For Asian workers, the unemployment rate slid to 3.2% in February, down from 3.7% in the prior month.

Rick Rieder, BlackRock’s chief investment officer of global fixed income, said that February’s payrolls report comes with a “load of footnotes.”
“For instance, the reporting survey was conducted following a period of significant job displacement in California related to the wildfires and other adverse weather conditions around the U.S., in the midst of a changing immigration picture, more labor strikes, and the beginning of the impact of DOGE on federal government employment,” he said.
– CNBC’s Gabriel Cortes contributed to this report. More

Health care saw another strong month, leading the pack in employment growth among different groups across the economy.
Government posted gains as well overall, though positions at the federal level saw a reduction in the period.

Getty Images | CNBC | Getty Images

February marked another strong month for health care despite job growth overall coming in weaker than expected but stable.
Last month, health care and social assistance led the way for job creation, adding 63,100 jobs, according to the latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. That marked the fifth straight month that the category saw the largest gains.

When including private education in the group, like some economists do, that figure grows to 73,000 jobs.

Although this is another strong performance for health care, Julia Pollak of ZipRecruiter noted that this level of gains has basically been happening over the last couple of years.
“Part of it is catch-up growth during the pandemic, when many hospitals’ profit margins were negative because of the cancellation of elective procedures,” the firm’s chief economist said in an interview with CNBC. “They didn’t do the hiring that they would’ve otherwise done, and now they’re back to normal and hiring pretty rapidly.”
Evolving demographic trends are another factor at play, Pollak said. She pointed out that the so-called Peak 65 zone – a multiyear period when more Americans are set to turn 65 than ever before – is underway.
“Some of it is catch-up, and some of it’s just the sort of huge demographic shifts that we’re undergoing,” Pollak continued.

Financial activities and construction were next in line in terms of job growth. Those two categories saw 21,000 and 19,000 positions added, respectively.
Government also saw growth of 11,000 positions during the month. That said, the BLS revealed that within the sector, federal jobs declined by 10,000. That comes amid efforts by President Donald Trump and the so-called Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE, to axe spending and workforce levels in the federal government.
“The job gains will be much smaller [and] the job losses will be much bigger in the coming reports,” Pollak said, adding that the reduction of 10,000 probably reflects some fraction of the probationary employees who were laid off. “This was still early days.”
In terms of weak spots, retail trade as well as leisure and hospitality were the two groups to see job losses in February. Retail trade lost 6,300 jobs, while leisure and hospitality lost 16,000.

Don’t miss these insights from CNBC PRO More

Nonfarm payrolls increased by a seasonally adjusted 151,000 on the month, better than the downwardly revised 125,000 in January but less than the 170,000 consensus forecast.
Federal government employment declined by 10,000 in February though government payrolls overall rose by 11,000.
Average hourly earnings climbed 0.3%, as expected, though the annual increase of 4% was a bit softer than the 4.2% forecast.

Job growth was weaker than expected in February though still stable despite President Donald Trump’s efforts to slash the federal workforce.
Nonfarm payrolls increased by a seasonally adjusted 151,000 on the month, better than the downwardly revised 125,000 in January, but less than the 170,000 consensus forecast from Dow Jones, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday. The unemployment rate edged higher to 4.1%.

The report comes amid efforts from Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency to pare down the federal government, starting with buyout incentives and including mass firings that have impacted multiple departments.
Though the reductions likely won’t be felt fully until coming months, the efforts are beginning to show. Federal government employment declined by 10,000 in February though government payrolls overall increased by 11,000, the BLS said.
Many of the DOGE-related layoffs happened after the BLS survey reporting period, meaning they won’t be included until the March report. Outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported earlier this week that announced layoffs under Musk’s efforts totaled more than 62,000.

Health care led the way in job creation, adding 52,000 jobs, about in line with its 12-month average. Other sectors posting gains included financial activities (21,000), transportation and warehousing (18,000), and social assistance (11,000). Retail posted a decline of 6,000 workers.
On wages, average hourly earnings climbed 0.3%, as expected, though the annual increase of 4% was a bit softer than the 4.2% forecast.

Stock market futures moved higher following the report while Treasury yields were lower.
“We are not putting much stock in the jobs report at the moment,” said Byron Anderson, head of fixed income at Laffer Tengler Investments. “Today’s data was mixed at best, but we still have no clarity on the economy moving forward with the Trump turmoil. The longer we have chaos and turmoil from Trump, the higher the probability that we will eventually have data trend negative.”
Though the report indicated continued job growth, some of the details were a little less positive.
The labor force participation rate slumped to 62.4%, its lowest level since January 2023, as the labor force declined by 385,000. A broader measure of unemployment that includes discouraged workers and those holding part-time positions for economic reasons jumped half a percentage point to 8%, its highest level since October 2021.
Also, the household survey, which the BLS uses to calculate the unemployment rate, told a different story, showing a plunge of 588,000 workers. Those holding part-time jobs but wanting full-time positions swelled to 4.9 million, an increase of 460,000.
The BLS report tracks a tumultuous month for markets and the economy.
Stocks have gyrated on a daily basis since Trump has taken office, with movements depending largely on tariff news that has changed rapidly. At the same time, Musk’s efforts through DOGE have been reflected in surveys showing high levels of worker angst.
The February numbers, though, show that the labor market is stable. The December jobs count was revised up to 323,000, an increase of 16,000, while the new January figure represents a decline of 18,000 from the previous estimate.

Don’t miss these insights from CNBC PRO More

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent attends at an Economic Club of New York event in New York City, U.S., March 6, 2025. 
Jeenah Moon | Reuters

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Friday acknowledged some signs of weakness in the U.S. economy.
“Could we be seeing that this economy that we inherited starting to roll a bit? Sure. And look, there’s going to be a natural adjustment as we move away from public spending to private spending,” Bessent said on CNBC’s “Squawk Box.”

“The market and the economy have just become hooked. We’ve become addicted to this government spending, and there’s going to be a detox period,” he added.
Describing the economy as inherited is a reference to the administration under then-President Joe Biden. Current President Donald Trump took office on Jan. 20.
Under Biden, the U.S. saw generally strong economic growth. However, there were signs of a slowdown in late 2024, and inflation remained above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.
In its first few months, the Trump administration has taken steps to reshape global trade policies and to reduce the federal workforce. There has not been much hard economic data reflecting Trump’s term, though consumer surveys have shown a decline in confidence.

One area where Trump’s policies could be felt quickly are tariffs. The president has hit Canada, Mexico and China with tariffs in his first two months in office, though the Canada and Mexico efforts now have a lengthy list of exemptions. The administration plans to implement broader tariffs in April.

“Tariffs are a one-time price adjustment,” Bessent said, pushing back against the idea that tariffs would fuel continued inflation.
Bessent also said the administration was “not getting much credit” for areas where costs have fallen since Trump’s inauguration, such as oil prices and mortgage rates. More

“I am very concerned about the European economy,” European Central Bank policymaker Mário Centeno told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Friday.
The ECB on Thursday took down its gross domestic product expectations for the euro area.
Potential tariffs from the U.S. could weigh on Europe’s economy, while increased defense spending in the region could have a positive impact.

Europe’s struggling economy has economists worried — and senior European Central Bank policymaker Mário Centeno, echoes that view.
“I am very concerned about the European economy,” Centeno, who is also governor of the Bank of Portugal, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Friday.

On Thursday, the ECB revised its gross domestic product expectations for the euro area to 0.9% growth in 2025, down from a previously projected 1.1% expansion. The euro area’s seasonally adjusted GDP most recently eked out a 0.1% increase in the fourth quarter.
Centeno linked the downward growth outlook revision to reduced exports and investments, echoing the ECB statement.
“Special investment is, I think, quite subdued in Europe. It will take four years for us to go back to the 2023 level of investment in the private sector, six years in terms of housing investment [and we will be] going back to 2022 levels only in 2028,” he explained.
“These are numbers that raise some questions about the recovery in Europe,” Centeno added.
Concerns about Europe’s sluggish economy have accelerated in recent months, following repeated threats of tariffs from the U.S. administration. U.S. President Donald Trump has already introduced duties on imports from several key U.S. trading partners and has indicated that Europe could be the next target.

But there is frequent policy movement in the U.S.’ position, with pauses, delays and exemptions aplenty as negotiations and pledges of reciprocal measures from the targeted countries continue.
“Tariffs are a tax. They are a tax on both consumption and production, and we do know that taxes have a very clear impact on the economy,” Centeno said Friday, warning that ultimately no one would gain from a tariff war.
One bright spot ahead for Europe could be a potential defense spending push from the European Union, which was introduced earlier this week off the back of souring relations between the U.S. and Ukraine.
If such packages are “well designed,” they could have a positive impact on Europe’s economy, Centeno said.
Germany also this week announced plans to boost infrastructure and defense spending, although the proposal must first pass some hurdles before it can be implemented.

Further rate cuts ahead?

Centeno also addressed the outlook for ECB interest rates, signaling further trims were expected ahead.
“We do think that the journey is very clear, although these rate cuts [were] implemented because the European economy is stagnated, we do have in our baseline a projection of inflation going to 2% in the medium term, but that that includes further adjustment in the rates,” he said.
However, the central bank needed to remain “open” and follow a data dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach, especially due to the current uncertainty regarding economic policies, Centeno said.
The ECB on Thursday announced its sixth interest rate cut since June last year, taking its key rate, the deposit facility rate, another quarter point lower to 2.5%. The move had been widely expected by markets.
In a statement announcing the decision, the ECB also tweaked the language it used to characterize monetary policy to say it was now “meaningfully less restrictive,” a change from the previous description of “restrictive.”
Interpretations of what this could imply for the rate path ahead diverged, with some analysts and economists saying it suggested that policymakers were becoming more cautious about cutting rates. Others said the central bank’s statement indicated more cuts ahead, but that a pause in the cutting cycle could now be on the horizon.
Markets were last pricing in an around 57% chance of the ECB holding rates steady during its April monetary policy meeting and a 43% probability of a further quarter-point reduction.
Beyond the ECB’s statement, markets are likely to also be taking into account developments around tariffs and European defense spending in their assessment of what could come next from the ECB.
“The decision in April will take on board all the information we will get until then,” the central bank’s Centeno commented. More