Evelyn Reynolds

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    It’s No Bluff: The Tariff Rate Is Soaring Under Trump

    The president has earned a reputation for bluffing on tariffs. But he has steadily and dramatically raised U.S. tariffs, transforming global trade.President Trump’s on-again, off-again tariffs have prompted investors to bet that he will “always chicken out” and given businesses and foreign leaders hope that the leader of the world’s largest economy will ultimately back down from his threats if they prove too economically disruptive.Events of the past week have cast serious doubt on that bet. As Mr. Trump renews trade threats against more than two dozen trading partners, he is once again proving his fondness for tariffs, and embracing import taxes in a way that no other president has since the Great Depression.A self-described “tariff man,” Mr. Trump has continually extolled the virtues of heavily taxing imports as a way to raise revenue and cajole factories to relocate to the United States. While the president may ultimately give way on some of his most recent threats, he has still steadily and dramatically raised tariffs to levels not seen in a century.Over the past week, Mr. Trump has threatened 25 trading partners with punishing levies on Aug. 1 unless they sign trade deals that Mr. Trump finds acceptable. The list of countries he plans to raise tariffs on include some of America’s biggest sources of imports, including the European Union, Japan, Mexico, Brazil, South Korea and Thailand. Those countries had been in active talks with the United States about resolving Mr. Trump’s concerns in an effort to avoid tariffs.Several may still reach deals to avert some of the levies, including India, the European Union, Taiwan and Japan.But even if some deals are reached, American tariffs on trading partners are still likely to rise significantly. That was the case with the two trade agreement frameworks that the Trump administration has so far announced, with Britain and Vietnam, both of which leave double-digit tariffs in place.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    India’s inflation cools to 2.1% in June, extending slide to more than 6-year lows

    Consumer inflation had dipped to 2.82% in May.
    CPI data allows India room to ease rates at a time when Trump tariffs threaten growth.
    India’s economy rose by a faster-than-expected 7.4% in the quarter ended March.

    A laborer loads consumer goods onto a supply cart at a wholesale market in Kolkata, India, on November 11, 2024.
    Nurphoto | Nurphoto | Getty Images

    India’s consumer inflation continued to ease in June, hitting a lower-than-expected 2.10%, government data showed on Monday.
    The headline inflation rate extended its slide after dropping to a more than six-year low in May as growth in food prices continued to decline. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast June inflation at 2.5%.

    The consumer price index dropped for an eighth straight month in June.
    Food inflation came in at -1.06% in June, compared with 0.99% in May.
    Inflation data offers more room to the Reserve Bank of India to continue relaxing its monetary policy, after its outsized rate cut of 50 basis points in May.
    RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra said in May that record wheat production and a higher harvest of key pulses in the spring crop season “should ensure adequate supply of key food items,” raising the prospects of a further decline in food inflation.
    “Aided by a good weather outcome, we expect inflation to average about 2.5% over the next six months. A high base over the last three years and strong cereal production will help keep food inflation lower for longer,” HSBC said in a note on June 30.

    “A good monsoon will help contain inflation, boost real wages, and raise the purchasing power of informal sector consumers,” HSBC said.
    The increase in domestic consumption would accelerate India’s economy after it posted a faster-than-expected growth of 7.4% in the quarter ended March.
    Malhotra, however, has warned that the country needs to be watchful of weather-related uncertainties, as well as concerns around tariffs and their impact on global commodity prices.
    India has been negotiating with the U.S. to strike a trade deal before President Donald Trump’s tariff deadline of Aug. 1, failing which the country would invite import duties of 26%. 
    Indian media reported last week that a trade delegation was expected to travel to Washington for talks, after Trump restarted sending out tariff letter to countries early last week.
    New Delhi earlier this month proposed retaliatory duties against the U.S. at the World Trade Organization, Reuters reported, saying Washington’s 25% tariff on automobiles and some auto parts would affect $2.89 billion of India’s exports. More

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    To Sidestep Trump Tariffs, Asian Nations Seek New Trade Partners

    Most nations are still negotiating in hopes of avoiding punitive import taxes. At the same time, they’re looking for trading partners as a way around the United States.For most countries that received President Trump’s letters last week threatening steep tariffs, especially the Asian nations with economies focused on supplying the United States, there are no obvious substitutes as a destination for their goods.But they are doing their best to find them.Business and political leaders around the world have been roundly baffled by the White House’s imposition of new duties, even as governments shuttled envoys back and forth to Washington offering new purchases and pledges of reform. Mr. Trump is erecting new trade barriers and demanding deep concessions by Aug. 1, claiming years of grievance because America buys more than it sells.“Across the world, tools once used to generate growth are now wielded to pressure, isolate and contain,” Anwar Ibrahim, the prime minister of Malaysia, said at a gathering of Southeast Asian leaders on Wednesday. “As we navigate external pressures, we need to fortify our foundations. Trade among ourselves. Invest more in one another.”“As we navigate external pressures, we need to fortify our foundations,” Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim of Malaysia said on Wednesday. Vincent Thian/Associated PressThere are already a few signs of such efforts. South Korea’s new president, Lee Jae Myung, sent special envoys to Australia and Germany to discuss defense and trade issues, and plans on dispatching delegations to several others. Brazil and India announced plans to increase their bilateral trade by 70 percent, to $20 billion.Indonesia says it is nearing a treaty with the European Union that would drop most tariffs on both sides to zero. And in Vietnam, which Mr. Trump said had accepted 20 percent tariffs on its goods headed to the United States before last week’s letters, the deputy trade minister emphasized efforts to reduce her country’s reliance on American consumers by leveraging other trade agreements.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Tariffs or Deals? Trump Seems Content With Punishing Levies.

    The president’s supporters portray him as a top dealmaker. But, at least for now, far more trading partners have gotten stiff tariffs than trade deals.Even after President Trump announced sweeping global tariffs in April, some investors and supporters comforted themselves by arguing that the president’s goal was still to open global markets, not close them off.The belief, promoted by Mr. Trump himself, was that he was using his tariffs as a lever to crack open foreign markets and the administration would soon deliver dozens of deals that would increase U.S. exports and help American businesses flourish abroad.Three months later, that optimism is being replaced by doubts that Mr. Trump’s goal was ever to strike the kind of trade deals that would open up markets. When Mr. Trump paused his global tariffs for 90 days in April, he said the delay would give his administration time to reach trade deals with countries across the world. In the intervening months, Mr. Trump boasted about how countries were lining up to talk to the United States and at one point claimed he had reached 200 deals.But the administration has only announced two preliminary deals, with Britain and Vietnam, and the status of the Vietnam deal is now in question. While handshake agreements with the European Union, India, Taiwan and other governments could soon be pending, they are likely to be limited pacts that leave much left to be negotiated. Even when deals have been announced, the administration has left double-digit tariffs in place, with the promise of more levies on foreign products on the way.This week, Mr. Trump sent out nearly two dozen letters notifying countries of the high tariff rates they will be charged as of Aug. 1 if they don’t sign trade deals. That included nations that were in active negotiations with the United States, like Indonesia, Canada, South Korea and Malaysia.With less than a month before the Aug. 1 tariffs kick in, the Trump administration may have the capacity to deal with only a fraction of those countries. Some governments that have sought out meetings with U.S. officials have not been able to schedule them.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Treasury posts unexpected surplus in June as tariff receipts surge

    With government red ink swelling throughout the year, June saw a surplus of just over $27 billion, following a $316 billion deficit in May.
    Customs duties totaled about $27 billion for the month, up from $23 billion in May and a 301% gain from June 2024.

    A view shows a bronze seal beside a door at the U.S. Treasury building in Washington, U.S., January 20, 2023. 
    Kevin Lamarque | Reuters

    The U.S. government posted a surplus in June as tariffs gave an extra bump to a sharp increase in receipts, the Treasury Department said Friday.
    With government red ink swelling throughout the year, last month saw a surplus of just over $27 billion, following a $316 billion deficit in May.

    That brought the fiscal year-to-date deficit to $1.34 trillion, up 5% from a year ago. However, with calendar adjustment, the deficit actually edged lower by 1%. There are three months left in the current fiscal year, which ends Sept. 30.
    A 13% increase in receipts from the same month a year ago helped bridge the gap, with outlays down 7%. For the year, receipts are up 7% while spending has risen 6%.
    The government last posted a June surplus in 2017, during President Donald Trump’s first term.
    Increasing tariff collections are helping shore up the government finances.
    Customs duties totaled about $27 billion for the month, up from $23 billion in May and 301% higher than June 2024. On an annual basis, tariff collections have totaled $113 billion, or 86% more than a year ago.

    Trump levied across-the-board 10% tariffs on imports in April on top of other select duties. He also announced a menu of so-called reciprocal tariffs on various U.S. trading partners and has been in negotiations since.
    The Treasury Department noted that the month benefited from calendar adjustments, without which the deficit would have been $70 billion.
    Persistently high Treasury yields again posed a challenge for federal finances.
    Net interest on the $36 trillion national debt totaled $84 billion in June, down slightly from May but still higher than any other category with the exception of Social Security. For the year, net interest — what Treasury pays on the debt it issues minus what it earns on investments — is at $749 billion. Total interest payments are projected at $1.2 trillion for the full fiscal year.
    Trump has been pushing the Federal Reserve to cut short-term rates to help with the financing burden of servicing federal debt. But markets don’t expect the central bank to ease again until September, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell has said he remains leery of the potential impact that tariffs might have on inflation.
    Trump’s own “big beautiful” spending bill that made its way through Congress earlier this month is expected to add about $3.4 trillion to the national debt over the next decade, according to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office’s projections.
    Clarification: This story has been updated to clarify the current deficit figures.

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    Trump’s Seesawing on Tariffs Gives the World Whiplash

    Blunt letters dictating terms posted to social media and changes late in negotiations have left trading partners wondering what President Trump will do next.Six months into his new administration, Mr. Trump’s assault on global trade has lost any semblance of organization or structure.He has changed deadlines suddenly. He has blown up negotiations at the 11th hour, often raising unexpected issues. He has tied his tariffs to complaints that have nothing to do with trade, like Brazil’s treatment of its former president, Jair Bolsonaro, or the flow of fentanyl from Canada.Talks with the United States were like “going through a labyrinth” and arriving “back to Square 1,” said Airlangga Hartarto, the Indonesian minister for economic affairs, who met with U.S. officials in Washington on Wednesday.The resulting uncertainty is preventing companies and countries from making plans as the rules of global commerce give way to a state of chaos.“We’re still far away from making real deals,” said Carsten Brzeski, global head of macroeconomics at the bank ING in Germany. He called the uncertainty “poison” for the global economy.Gone is the idea that the White House would strike 90 deals in 90 days after a period of rapid-fire negotiation, as Mr. Trump pledged in April. Instead, Washington has signed bare-bone agreements with big trading partners including China, while sending many other countries blunt and mostly standardized letters announcing hefty tariffs to start on Aug. 1.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Trump announces 35% tariffs on Canada starting Aug. 1

    U.S. President Donald Trump and Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney talk during a family photo at the G7 Summit in Kananaskis, Alberta, Canada, June 16, 2025.
    Amber Bracken | Reuters

    U.S. President Donald Trump on Thursday announced a 35% tariff on Canadian imports, starting Aug. 1, citing that Ottawa had retaliated with tariffs against Washington.
    “Instead of working with the United States, Canada retaliated with its own Tariffs,” Trump said in his letter to Mark Carney, prime minister of Canada, posted on Truth Social.

    He attributed fentanyl as a reason for the rate in the letter and said: “If Canada works with me to stop the flow of Fentanyl, we will, perhaps, consider an adjustment to this letter.”
    The 35% tariffs will be separate from all sectoral tariffs, Trump said, threatening that the duty might be increased, if Canada continues to retaliate.
    “If for any reason you decide to raise your Tariffs, then, whatever the number you choose to raise them by, will be added onto the 35% that we charge,” Trump said in the post.
    This is breaking news. Please refresh for updates. More

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    Trump Fuels Fear Among Immigrant Farm Workers in California’s Central Valley

    The farmers in California’s Central Valley like to say they feed the world, and it is not hyperbole.The valley stretches for 450 fertile miles from Bakersfield in the south to Redding in the north, yields an estimated 40 percent of the fruit, vegetables and tree nuts grown in the United States, and exports half of that bounty overseas. California agriculture overall is a $60 billion annual business.It is also one that President Trump has thrown into turmoil. Only in recent weeks has he offered vague glimmers of hope.When agents from the Border Patrol and Immigration and Customs Enforcement turned up last month at farms and packing houses in Ventura County, well south of the Central Valley, there was panic in the valley’s fields, where an estimated 80 percent of farmworkers are undocumented. Farmers here, most of whom voted for Mr. Trump and had expected him to protect them, were in a rage.“I would love to just call a general strike,” said one fuming grower, Vernon, who stood among his acres of plum trees near the town of Kingsburg on a recent sweltering morning. “Let’s just quit feeding America for one week!” Vernon asked that only his first name be used because of the undocumented workers he employs.There have been no raids so far this month in the Central Valley, but Manuel Cunha Jr., the president of the Nisei Farmers League, which represents 500 farmers and more than 75,000 farmworkers, mostly in the region, is on edge. “If we get one Border Patrol raid, we’re screwed,” he said in an interview in his Fresno office. “Because no one is going to go to work in any field or packing house.”We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More