Evelyn Reynolds

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    Lutnick Remarks on Removing Government Spending in GDP Data Raises Fears

    Comments from a member of President Trump’s cabinet over the weekend have renewed concerns that the new administration could seek to interfere with federal statistics — especially if they start to show that the economy is slipping into a recession.In an interview on Fox News on Sunday, Howard Lutnick, the commerce secretary, suggested that he planned to change the way the government reports data on gross domestic product in order to remove the impact of government spending.“You know that governments historically have messed with G.D.P.,” he said. “They count government spending as part of G.D.P. So I’m going to separate those two and make it transparent.”It wasn’t immediately clear what Mr. Lutnick meant. The basic definition of gross domestic product is widely accepted internationally and has been unchanged for decades. It tallies consumer spending, private-sector investment, net exports, and government investment and spending to arrive at a broad measure of all goods and services produced in a country.The Bureau of Economic Analysis, which is part of Mr. Lutnick’s department, already produces a detailed breakdown of G.D.P. into its component parts. Many economists focus on a measure — known as “final sales to private domestic purchasers” — that excludes government spending and is often seen as a better indicator of underlying demand in the economy. That measure has generally shown stronger growth in recent quarters than overall G.D.P. figures.In recent weeks, however, there have been mounting signs elsewhere that the economy could be losing momentum. Consumer spending fell unexpectedly in January, applications for unemployment insurance have been creeping upward, and measures of housing construction and home sales have turned down. A forecasting model from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta predicts that G.D.P. could contract sharply in the first quarter of the year, although most private forecasters still expect modest growth.Steady Growth, From Private and Government SpendingGovernment spending has contributed to G.D.P. growth in recent quarters, as private-sector growth has remained solid.

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    Quarterly change in inflation-adjusted gross domestic product
    Notes: Change shown as seasonally adjusted annual rate. Private sector is total gross domestic product excluding government spending and investment. Government spending excludes transfer payments, including stimulus checks during the Covid-19 pandemic.”Source: Bureau of Economic AnalysisBy The New York TimesWe are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    The Problem With Car Tariffs: What’s an Import?

    <!–> –><!–> [–><!–> –><!–> [–><!–> –> <!–> –><!–> [–><!–> –><!–> [–><!–> –><!–> [–><!–> –><!–> [–><!–> –><!–> [–><!–> –><!–> [–><!–> –><!–> [–><!–> –><!–> [–><!–> –><!–> [–><!–> –> <!–> –><!–> [–><!–> –><!–> [–><!–> –> <!–> –><!–> [–><!–> –><!–> [–><!–> –><!–> [–><!–> –><!–> [–><!–> –> Source: Economy – nytimes.com More

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    How ‘Silo’ and ‘Paradise’ Envision Housing After the Apocalypse

    “Paradise” and “Silo” have opposing takes on the future of urban organization, echoing the debate over America’s housing shortage today.“Paradise” is a TV show on Hulu about a postapocalyptic society that lives underground in a suburb. “Silo” is a TV show on Apple TV+ about a postapocalyptic society that lives underground in an apartment tower.Both are propelled by mysteries. Both feature curious heroes. Both have shifty leaders who lie, blackmail and murder to keep their secrets hidden and their denizens in line.The shows have much in common, in other words.But somehow they find opposing answers to a question that seems increasingly relevant in a warming world: If the planet goes to hell and humanity heads to a bunker, what sort of neighborhood will we build inside it? A spacious holdout that tries to approximate a comfortable standard of living, or a cramped locker that saves more lives but leaves the survivors miserable?By imagining wildly different landscapes in response to the same end-of-the-world conceit, the shows use cinematic extremes to show how civilization and class divisions are constructed through the apportionment of space. People like to live around other people right up to the moment they feel their neighborhood has been overrun by others, at which point the hunger for togetherness becomes an impulse to exclude.A good amount of today’s housing politics fall within these parameters, whether it’s a proposal to build apartments in a suburb or a plan to cover farms with a new city. The fact that this debate now extends to fictional bunkers has me convinced that in the aftermath of global calamity, people will be at some dystopian City Council meeting arguing about zoning.Curious how they came up with their underground cities, I called writers of the two works — Dan Fogelman, the creator and showrunner of “Paradise,” and Hugh Howey, author of the novels on which “Silo” is based. I wanted to understand the inspiration for each world and what those worlds tell us about the societal trade-offs between accommodating a lot of people and trying to make those people happy.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Trump’s Tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China Snap Into Effect

    Sweeping tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico and China went into effect just after midnight on Tuesday, raising U.S. tariffs to levels not seen in decades and rattling foreign governments and businesses that depend on international trade.As of 12:01 a.m. Tuesday, the Trump administration added a 25 percent tariff on all imports from Canada and Mexico. The administration also added another 10 percent tariff on all imports from China. That comes on top of a 10 percent tariff on Chinese goods put into effect just one month ago and a variety of older levies, including those that remain from the China trade war in Mr. Trump’s first term.The tariffs will make good on President Trump’s campaign promise to rework America’s trade relations, and they are likely to encourage some manufacturers who want to sell to American customers to set up factories in the United States, instead of other countries.But by altering the terms of trade between the United States and its largest economic partners, the tariffs will also probably rattle supply chains, strain some of the country’s most important diplomatic relationships and add significant costs for American consumers and manufacturers.Canada, Mexico and China are the three largest trading partners of the United States, accounting for more than 40 percent of both U.S. imports and exports last year. The three countries supply the bulk of crude oil, beer, copper wire, toilet paper, hot-rolled iron, cucumbers and chocolate imported by the United States, as well as a dizzying array of other products. More

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    Euro zone inflation dips to 2.4% in February as ECB bets point to sixth rate cut

    Euro zone inflation eased to 2.4% in February according to statistic agency Eurostat.
    This was lower than January’s 2.5% reading, but higher than expected by economists polled by Reuters.
    So-called core inflation, which strips out energy, food, alcohol and tobacco costs, came in at 2.6% in February, also lower than January’s print.

    Two parents and their two children walk through a section of sweet cakes, biscuits and jam.
    Nicolas Guyonnet | Afp | Getty Images

    Euro zone inflation eased to 2.4% in February but came in slightly above analyst expectations, according to flash data from statistics agency Eurostat out on Monday.
    Economists surveyed by Reuters had expected inflation to dip to 2.3% in February, down from the 2.5% reading of January.

    So-called core inflation, which strips out energy, food, alcohol and tobacco costs, hit 2.6% in February, just below the 2.7% print of the previous month.
    The closely watched services inflation reading, which has proven sticky over recent months, also eased, coming in at 3.7% last month, compared to the January reading of 3.9%.
    The Monday figures also pointed to a sharp slowdown in energy price hikes, which were up just 0.2% in February, versus 1.9% in the first month of the year.
    “February’s decline in headline inflation was encouraging because it was partly due to lower services inflation,” Jack Allen-Reynolds, deputy chief euro zone economist at Capital Economics said in a note on Monday.
    “We think February’s decline in services inflation is the start of a trend that will pull the core rate down substantially this year,” he added.

    Headline inflation is meanwhile expected to remain around its current levels, Allen-Reynolds noted, as energy prices are expected to rise slightly and food inflation is forecast to stay above the 2% mark.
    However, depending on how the current geopolitical situation develops, this could eventually impact inflation, Bert Colijn, chief Netherlands economist at ING, noted Monday.
    “Geopolitical developments are making the inflation outlook highly uncertain at the moment. Think, for example, of uncertainty surrounding a trade war and energy prices,” he said.
    Repeated threats from U.S. President Donald Trump to impose tariffs on goods imported from Europe have left investors and economists unsure about the outlook for inflation and economic growth. Tariffs are often seen as inflationary, and trade with the U.S. is a key pillar for several major European countries, especially the EU’s largest economy, Germany.
    Euro zone inflation re-accelerated in the fourth quarter, but European Central Bank policymakers remain optimistic about its trajectory. Accounts from the central bank’s January meeting last week showed that policymakers believed inflation was on its way to meeting the 2% target, despite some lingering concerns.
    The ECB meets again later this week and is widely expected to announce another interest cut, which would mark its sixth reduction since it started easing monetary policy back in June.
    Markets will also pay close attention to the ECB statement accompanying the rate decision, searching for clues on policymakers’ assessment of inflation and monetary policy restrictions.
    “For the European Central Bank, the big question is how low it will go,” ING’s Colijn said, adding that the Monday data will support the view that inflation is currently “fairly benign,” but that it will not provide a strong basis for how low rates should be.
    “We expect another 0.25ppt cut later this week to be accompanied by a fiercer debate on when the ECB will reach its terminal rate,” he said.
    The Monday data comes after several major economies within the euro zone reported inflation data last week. Provisional data showed that February inflation was unchanged at a higher-than-expected 2.8% in Germany, but eased sharply to 0.9% in France. The readings are harmonized across the euro zone to ensure comparability. More

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    Trump Turns Up Trade Pressure on China After Beijing Fails to Come Running

    China is still cautiously trying to figure out what Trump wants. The president has threatened big tariffs in response to the inaction.When President Trump threatened tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China in January, saying those countries needed to do more to stop the flow of drugs and migrants into the United States, Canadian and Mexican officials raced to Washington, bearing charts and videos detailing their efforts to toughen their borders.Canada created a “fentanyl czar” and committed fresh resources to combating organized crime, while Mexico dispatched troops to the border and delivered cartel operatives into U.S. custody. As a result, Mr. Trump paused tariffs on America’s North American neighbors for 30 days.China never made these kinds of overtures and, in Mr. Trump’s view, did not take any big moves to stop the flow of fentanyl into the United States. So on Feb. 4, Mr. Trump moved forward with imposing a 10 percent tariff on all Chinese imports. Last week, the president said that on March 4 he would add another 10 percent on top of all existing Chinese tariffs.Mr. Trump is moving quickly to radically transform the U.S.-China trade relationship. The Chinese are moving much more cautiously and deliberately as they try to assess Mr. Trump and determine what it is he actually wants from China. Some of Mr. Trump’s advisers, including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, have held calls with their Chinese counterparts. But a call between Mr. Trump and Xi Jinping, China’s leader, has failed to materialize.The Chinese do not want to initiate a conversation because they do not want to be seen as pleading, and are wary of offering concessions before they understand the parameters of the debate, people familiar with the discussions said. Instead, Chinese officials, academics and others close to the government have been holding discreet conversations to try to determine Mr. Trump’s motives, while floating various aspects of a potential trade deal between the countries to assess the Americans’ reaction.“With my experience with the Chinese, they are suspicious in the initial rounds of a negotiation that there are hidden traps or other reasons to be cautious,” said Michael Pillsbury, a China expert who advises the Trump administration on dealing with the country.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Clock Ticks Down Toward Sweeping Tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China

    President Trump could still choose to pause the tariffs he is threatening to put on America’s largest trading partners Tuesday, but industries are preparing for the worst.When President Trump announced last week that an additional 10 percent tariff on Chinese goods would take effect on Tuesday, Logan Vanghele immediately called the logistics company that was handling a $120,000 shipment of aquarium products for his small business.The cargo was on a ship en route to Boston from China. His message was clear: “Get this thing off the boat, please.”Company executives and foreign officials are scrambling to avert the consequences of another tight deadline from Mr. Trump, who has threatened to put stiff tariffs on goods coming in from China, Canada and Mexico starting just after midnight Tuesday.The president describes this as an effort to pressure those countries to stop the flow of deadly drugs and migrants to the United States. But Mr. Trump’s game of brinkmanship with America’s three largest trading partners is creating intense uncertainty for business owners.That includes Mr. Vanghele, 28, who runs a small company that sells lighting and equipment for aquariums, all of which is made in China. He had no idea that the shipment — one of his biggest so far — could face such fees when it left Yantian Port in southeastern China in January, just days before Mr. Trump’s inauguration. In a frantic effort to avoid paying roughly $25,000 in tariffs, Mr. Vanghele pleaded with the logistics firm last week to unload his container at a port in Norfolk, Va., where it stopped on Friday, instead of traveling on to Boston.While it is possible that Mr. Trump’s new tariffs will include an exemption for goods that are already on the water, there is no guarantee.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Trump Picks Another Trade Fight With Canada Over Lumber

    The president initiated an investigation that could lead to tariffs on lumber imports, nearly half of which comes from Canada.President Trump on Saturday initiated an investigation into whether imports of lumber threaten America’s national security, a step that is likely to further inflame relations with Canada, the largest exporter of wood to the United States.The president directed his commerce secretary, Howard Lutnick, to carry out the investigation. The results of the inquiry could allow the president to apply tariffs to lumber imports. A White House official declined to say how long the inquiry would take.An executive memorandum signed by Mr. Trump ordered the investigation and was accompanied by another document that White House officials said would expand the volume of lumber offered for sale each year, increasing supply and helping to ensure that timber prices do not rise.The trade inquiry is likely to further anger Canada. Some of its citizens have called for boycotts of American products over Mr. Trump’s plans to impose tariffs on all Canadian imports beginning on Tuesday. The president, who also plans to hit Mexico with similar tariffs, says the levies are punishment for failure to stem the flow of drugs and migrants into the United States.Many Canadians have contested Mr. Trump’s assertion that fentanyl is flowing from its country into the United States.Canada and the United States have sparred over protections in the lumber industry for decades. The countries have protected their own industries with tariffs and other trade measures, and argued about the legitimacy of those measures in disputes both under the North American Free Trade Agreement and at the World Trade Organization.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More