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    Consumer confidence is near its lowest in a decade, and that could be a problem for Biden

    Anxiety over the economy could prove costly to President Biden and his fellow Democrats.
    A separate University of Michigan survey found consumers worried about inflation and indicating they thought Republicans were the better choice to fix the economy.

    US President Joe Biden speaks during a DNC rally in Miami Gardens, Florida, US, on Tuesday, Nov. 1, 2022.
    Eva Marie Uzcategui | Bloomberg | Getty Images

    Anxiety over the cost of living and the direction of the economy could prove costly to President Joe Biden and his fellow Democrats in Tuesday’s election.
    Recent surveys show consumer sentiment has risen only modestly and remains well below where it was a year ago, when inflation worries first began to grip policymakers, shoppers and business executives.

    A report released Friday outlined the problem for Washington’s current ruling party. The University of Michigan, which releases a closely watched sentiment survey each month, asked respondents who they trusted more when it came to the economy and which would better for personal finances.
    The result: overwhelmingly Republican.
    The survey of 1,201 respondents saw Republicans with a 37%-21% edge on the question of which party is better for the economy. While that left a wide swath — 37% — of consumers who don’t think it makes a difference, the disparity of those with a preference is huge. (The survey did not distinguish whether respondents were likely voters.)

    In fact, among all demographics, the only one in the Democrats’ favor was the sole party group. Whether it was age, household income or education, all other groups favored the GOP.
    On overall sentiment, the Michigan survey saw a reading of 59.9 for October, 2.2% better than September but 16.5% below the same period a year ago. The reading is just off its all-time low in June 2022 and is running close to its lowest level in more than 11 years, according to data that goes back to 1978.

    “It’s a huge problem” for Democrats, said Greg Valliere, chief U.S. policy strategist at AGF Investments, who specializes on the impact of politics on the financial markets. “They’ve seen enough evidence since Labor Day showing how the economy dwarfs every other issue, but they didn’t do anything about it. They didn’t say the right thing, they didn’t show enough empathy. To me, this was a really sorry performance.”
    Valliere thinks the issue could get so large that Biden may have to announce soon that he will not seek a second term in 2024.
    “I think the Democrats have a lot of problems right now,” he added.

    Consumer confidence also hit an all-time low on housing, with just 16% of respondents saying they think now is a good time to buy, according to a Fannie Mae survey that goes back to 2011.
    Those types of readings have not boded well for the party in power.
    Former President Donald Trump lost his bid for reelection in 2020 when the Michigan poll was just above its early Coronavirus pandemic low. Conversely, Barack Obama won reelection in 2012 when the survey was riding a five-year high. George W. Bush captured his bid for a second term in 2004 when sentiment was middling, but Bill Clinton triumphed in 1996 when the Michigan gauge was at a 10-year high.
    As for congressional control, in the 2010 midterm election, when the Obama-Biden administration lost a stunning 63 House seats, the biggest rout since 1948, the reading was at 71.6. That was only narrowly better than the year before when the economy was still climbing out of the financial crisis.
    Today, the public is particularly anxious about inflation.

    After declining for two months in a row, October’s one-year inflation outlook stood at 5%, up 0.3 percentage point from September and the highest reading since July. The five-year outlook also rose, up to 2.9%, and tied for the highest level since June.
    The University of Michigan survey also found respondents had more trust in Republicans when it came to the fate of their personal finances.
    The GOP held a 15-point lead against Democrats in that category, including a 19-point edge among independents.
    The survey showed expectations running high that Republicans will prevail in Tuesday’s election and wrest control of Congress back from Democrats.

    On both the general economy and personal finance questions, Republicans did far better among those holding a high school diploma or less, with a 25-point edge in both questions. Those holding a college degree gave the GOP an 8-point edge on the economy and a 10-point advantage on personal finances.

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    Inflation Plagues Democrats in Polling. Will It Crush Them at the Ballot Box?

    Americans are extremely attuned to the cost of living, and as midterm election voters head to the polls, they are divided over whom to blame.Inflation has roared back onto the scene as a key issue ahead of the 2022 midterm elections, after five decades during which slow and steady price increases were a political nonissue.It was once a potent driver of politics in America, one that panicked former President Richard M. Nixon and his administration, and later helped to make Jimmy Carter a one-term president. As prices surge, inflation is again taking center stage, and could help decide who controls Congress.Household confidence has plummeted as inflation has climbed, and economic issues have shot to the top of what voters are worried about. A full 49 percent of voters overall said that the economy is an extremely important issue to them in an October Gallup survey, notably outranking abortion, crime and relations with Russia. That’s the highest level of economic concern headed into a midterm election since 2010, when the economy was coming out of the worst downturn since the Great Depression.Inflation is almost certainly the issue pushing the economy to its current prominence. Consumer prices picked up by 8.2 percent in the year through September, far faster than the roughly 2 percent annual gains that were normal in the years leading up to the pandemic. That has left many families feeling like they are falling behind, even as unemployment lingers near a 50-year low, employers hire at a solid clip and job openings abound.The disconnect between the strength of the economy and the way that voters feel about it illustrates why Democrats are barreling into the midterms on the defensive. Elected politicians have a limited role to play in fighting inflation, a job that falls mostly to the Federal Reserve. That has made talking about price increases all the more challenging.Survey data suggest that while voters disagree over whom to blame for today’s rapid price increases, a larger share of independent voters believe that Republicans would be better for the economy and their finances. And irritation over the state of the economy could be enough to prompt some people to vote for change even if the other party doesn’t offer clearly better solutions, according to political scientists. The question is less whether inflation will be a factor driving votes — and more whether it will be a decisive one.“It matters enormously to the election this week,” said Elaine Kamarck, a senior fellow in the Governance Studies program at the Brookings Institution, noting that gas and grocery prices are omnipresent realities for most families. “It is obvious what is happening in inflation every single day: Voters don’t get to forget it.”Across the political spectrum, many Americans are feeling less positive about their personal finances: An AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research poll from October found that 36 percent of Democrats now say their finances are in bad shape, up from 28 percent in March. Among Republicans, that number was 53 percent, up from 41 percent. Independents were fairly unchanged, with 53 percent feeling negative.That could be particularly bad for Democrats, because they are often seen as less strong on the economy.Which Party Is Better for the National Economy?Independents and Republicans both tend to rank Republicans ahead of Democrats economically, based on University of Michigan data.

    Note: Survey from September and October 2022.Source: University of MichiganBy The New York TimesNew survey data from the University of Michigan showed that 41 percent of voters felt neither party had an advantage when it came to helping their personal finances. But of those who did think there was a difference, 35 percent thought Republicans would be better — versus 20 percent for Democrats. Consumers also expected Republicans to win in national races.“By and large, respondents expect Republicans to gain control of both the House and the Senate,” Joanne Hsu, director of the University of Michigan’s consumer surveys, wrote in the Nov. 4 release.Which Party Is Better for Your Personal Finances? Republicans and Independents tend to rank Republicans higher on issues of personal finance, though many see no difference.

    Note: Survey from September and October 2022.Source: University of MichiganBy The New York TimesWhether they are right could hinge on whether inflation proves as salient for actual votes as it is in sentiment surveys.Prices may be rising quickly — annoying consumers and occupying their attention — but unemployment is very low, which Ms. Kamarck said might alleviate the angst. Plus, she said, critical groups of voters — most notably women — may focus on other issues including a Supreme Court ruling from earlier this year that overturned Roe v. Wade and ended the constitutional right to abortion.Hally Simpson Wilk, 36, from Broadview Heights, Ohio, is feeling inflation at the grocery store, but she does not think that Republicans would necessarily be better at solving the problem than Democrats. Plus, she said, the abortion ruling had “lit a fire under” her. She expects to vote Democrat.It is hard to guess whether unhappiness over rising prices will drive actual votes in part because there isn’t much recent precedent. While inflation has a history of driving politics in America, it hasn’t been a major issue in 50 years.Back in the 1970s and 1980s, inflation was even faster, touching peaks as high as 12 and 14 percent. Those price increases, and the nation’s response to them, played a big role in driving the national conversation and deciding elections during that era. Mr. Nixon in 1971 instituted wage and price caps to try to temporarily keep prices under control ahead of the 1972 election, for instance.“Inflation robs every American, every one of you,” Mr. Nixon said during his surprise announcement, which included other major economic policy changes. “Homemakers find it harder than ever to balance the family budget. And 80 million American wage earners have been on a treadmill.”.css-1v2n82w{max-width:600px;width:calc(100% – 40px);margin-top:20px;margin-bottom:25px;height:auto;margin-left:auto;margin-right:auto;font-family:nyt-franklin;color:var(–color-content-secondary,#363636);}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1v2n82w{margin-left:20px;margin-right:20px;}}@media only screen and (min-width:1024px){.css-1v2n82w{width:600px;}}.css-161d8zr{width:40px;margin-bottom:18px;text-align:left;margin-left:0;color:var(–color-content-primary,#121212);border:1px solid var(–color-content-primary,#121212);}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-161d8zr{width:30px;margin-bottom:15px;}}.css-tjtq43{line-height:25px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-tjtq43{line-height:24px;}}.css-x1k33h{font-family:nyt-cheltenham;font-size:19px;font-weight:700;line-height:25px;}.css-1hvpcve{font-size:17px;font-weight:300;line-height:25px;}.css-1hvpcve em{font-style:italic;}.css-1hvpcve strong{font-weight:bold;}.css-1hvpcve a{font-weight:500;color:var(–color-content-secondary,#363636);}.css-1c013uz{margin-top:18px;margin-bottom:22px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1c013uz{font-size:14px;margin-top:15px;margin-bottom:20px;}}.css-1c013uz a{color:var(–color-signal-editorial,#326891);-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-weight:500;font-size:16px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1c013uz a{font-size:13px;}}.css-1c013uz a:hover{-webkit-text-decoration:none;text-decoration:none;}Our needle is back. The needle is an innovative forecasting tool that was created by The Times and debuted in 2016. It is intended to help you understand what the votes tallied so far suggest about possible winners in key contests, before the election is called. Look for one needle on which party will control the House and one on which party will control the Senate.Here’s a deeper dive into how it works.Those wage and price caps may have been politically astute, but research since has showed they just delayed price jumps — they didn’t stop them. When Mr. Carter became president in 1977, inflation was still raging. The Fed wrestled it under control with super-high interest rates that sent unemployment soaring, a campaign that is widely credited with helping to cost Mr. Carter a second term.America’s experience during the 1970s also illustrates a harsh reality: Even if inflation drives the nation’s politics, there is relatively little politicians can do to address it, aside from trying to avoid making the problem worse by stimulating the economy. Taxing and spending policies to offset price increases mostly have comparatively small effects.The country’s main tool for fighting rapid price increases is Fed policy — and that is a painful solution. When the central bank lifts interest rates, it slows economic demand, cools hiring, moderates wage growth and eventually drags prices lower as shoppers pull back and companies find that they can no longer charge more.“There is not an easy fix for inflation — the fix is a recession,” Ms. Kamarck said. For Democrats, “it is very hard to have an economic message.”Economists typically attribute today’s rapid price increases partially to government spending, including a package that Democrats passed in 2021 that helped to fuel consumer demand. But they are also global in nature, tied partly to lingering supply issues amid the pandemic, and food and fuel market disruptions caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.Many voters believe that today’s price increases are not wholly — even principally — the Democratic administration’s fault. But that assessment divides along party lines.About 87 percent of Democrats attribute inflation to factors outside of President Biden’s control, versus 48 percent of independents and 21 percent of Republicans, based on AP-NORC polling data from last month.What Is to Blame for Rapid Inflation?A poll asked voters what was to blame for higher-than usual prices: President Biden’s policies, or factors outside of his control.

    Note: Survey from October 6-10, 2022Source: AP-NORCBy The New York Times People who were already on the fence could have their minds swayed by inflation — especially in places where it is particularly painful. Price increases are reported at a metro level, and some cities in key battleground states are facing particularly rapid price increases: Inflation was at 11.7 percent in Atlanta; 13 percent in Phoenix; and 9 percent in the Seattle metro area as of the latest available data.And even if inflation is hovering near the national average in some places, it is still the fastest pace in decades.Pennsylvania’s Senate race is closely contested, and Christopher Borick, director of the Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion in Allentown, Pa., thinks that rapid price increases could be one factor that is helping the Republican candidate Mehmet Oz run a competitive race despite very low favorability ratings.“We often see in midterm races that if people aren’t happy, a price is paid by the incumbent party,” Mr. Borick said. Inflation “places people in a mood that really does open up the door to alternatives that might not otherwise be acceptable.” More

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    Meta Is Said to Plan Significant Job Cuts This Week

    Mark Zuckerberg, Meta’s chief executive, said last month that many “teams will stay flat or shrink over the next year” as his company faces economic challenges.SAN FRANCISCO — Meta plans to lay off employees this week, three people with knowledge of the situation said, adding that the job cuts were set to be the most significant at the company since it was founded in 2004.It was unclear how many people would be cut and in which departments, said the people, who declined to be identified because they were not authorized to speak publicly. The layoffs were expected by the end of the week. Meta had 87,314 employees at the end of September, up 28 percent from a year ago.Meta has been struggling financially for months and has been increasingly clamping down on costs. The Silicon Valley company, which owns Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp and Messenger, has spent billions of dollars on the emerging technology of the metaverse, an immersive online world, just as the global economy has slowed and inflation has soared.At the same time, digital advertising — which forms the bulk of Meta’s revenue — has weakened as advertisers have pulled back, affecting many social media companies. Meta’s business has also been hurt by privacy changes that Apple enacted, which have hampered the ability of many apps to target mobile ads to users.Last month, Meta posted a 50 percent slide in quarterly profits and its second straight sales decline. The company said at the time that it would be “making significant changes across the board to operate more efficiently,” including by shrinking some teams and by hiring only in its areas of highest priority.More on Big TechMusk’s Twitter Takeover: Elon Musk has moved quickly to overhaul Twitter since he completed his $44 billion buyout of the company. But can he make the math work?Big Tech’s Slowdown: Amid stubborn inflation and rising interest rates, Google, Meta, Microsoft and other tech companies are signaling that tough days may be ahead. Some have already announced hiring freezes and job cuts.App Store Battle: Spotify wants to get into the audiobooks business, but Apple has rejected its new app three times. The standoff is the latest in a series of confrontations between the companies.Inside Meta’s Struggles: After a rocky year, employees at Meta are expressing skepticism, confusion and frustration over Mark Zuckerberg’s vision for the metaverse.Mark Zuckerberg, Meta’s chief executive, had added that most “teams will stay flat or shrink over the next year.” He said the company would “end 2023 as either roughly the same size, or even a slightly smaller organization than we are today.”The Wall Street Journal earlier reported Meta’s plans for layoffs this week.Mr. Zuckerberg has been signaling tougher times ahead for months. In July, he told employees that the company was facing one of the “worst downturns that we’ve seen in recent history” and that workers should prepare to do more work with fewer resources. Their performances would also be graded more intensely than previously, he said.“I think some of you might decide that this place isn’t for you, and that self-selection is OK with me,” Mr. Zuckerberg told employees in a call at the time. “Realistically, there are probably a bunch of people at the company who shouldn’t be here.”Meta joins other tech companies that have been laying off employees as economic conditions have grown more challenging. Tech companies boomed during the coronavirus pandemic but many of the largest firms reported financial results in recent weeks that showed they were feeling the impact of global economic jitters.On Friday, Elon Musk, the world’s richest man and the new owner of Twitter, laid off half of the company’s staff. Last week, Lyft also said it would cut 13 percent of its employees, or about 650 of its 5,000 workers. Stripe, a payment processing platform, said it would cut 14 percent of its employees, roughly 1,100 jobs. Snap, Robinhood and Coinbase are among other companies that have announced job cuts this year.Other tech companies are freezing their hiring. Last week, Amazon said it had decided to pause incremental corporate hiring because the economy was “in an uncertain place.” The move added to a freeze from last month, when the e-commerce giant halted corporate and technology hiring in its retail business for the rest of the year. More

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    Fed Frets About Shadow Banks and Eyes Treasury Liquidity in New Report

    The Federal Reserve is watching the government bond market and investment funds as rate increases ricochet through finance.The Federal Reserve warned in its twice-annual report on America’s financial stability that the government bond market could be primed for disruption, and cautioned that financial firms that operate outside of traditional banks could increase fragility in the system.Investors have been warning that market conditions are becoming increasingly fraught nine months into the Fed’s fastest rate-increase campaign since the 1980s. While the central bank is determined to push ahead with its effort to slow the economy as it tries to choke off rapid inflation, officials are keeping a careful eye on market conditions. A financial meltdown would make the Fed’s job more difficult — potentially even forcing it to deviate from some of its tightening efforts.Financial stability issues are in focus as central banks around the world raise interest rates in synchrony and other markets around the world — including the government bond market in Britain — offer early warning signs that cracks are beginning to emerge.The Financial Stability Report, released on Friday, delved into widely discussed challenges that have been plaguing Treasury markets and detailed less prominent vulnerabilities. Those included elevated leverage at financial institutions beyond banks, what is often referred to as the “shadow banking” system.The ease of trading Treasury securities, called liquidity, has been strained in recent months, which is making analysts and investors nervous that the market could be primed for disruption. The Fed attributed the decline in liquidity “primarily” to volatility in interest rates and economic uncertainty.What the Fed’s Rate Increases Mean for YouCard 1 of 4A toll on borrowers. More

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    Biden Spins His Economic Record Ahead of Elections

    The president’s recent comments on Social Security, the deficit and economic growth claim credit where it is not always due.WASHINGTON — As President Biden and his administration have told it in recent months, America has the fastest-growing economy in the world, his student debt forgiveness program passed Congress by a vote or two, and Social Security benefits became more generous thanks to his leadership.None of that was accurate.The president, who has long been seen as embellishing the truth, has recently overstated his influence on the economy, or omitted key facts. This week, Mr. Biden praised himself for giving retirees a raise during a speech in Florida.“On my watch, for the first time in 10 years, seniors are getting an increase in their Social Security checks,” he declared. The problem: That increase was the result of an automatic cost-of-living increase prompted by the most rapid inflation in 40 years. Mr. Biden had not done anything to make retirees’ checks bigger — it was just a byproduct of the soaring inflation that the president has vowed to combat.In stops across the country in recent weeks, Mr. Biden has also credited himself with bringing down the federal budget deficit — the gap between what America owes and what it earns.“This year the deficit, under our leadership, is falling by $1.4 trillion,” he said last week in Syracuse, N.Y. “Ladies and gentlemen, the largest ever one-year cut in American history on the deficit.”Left unsaid was the fact that the deficit was so high in the first place because of pandemic relief spending, including a $1.9 trillion economic aid package the president pushed through Congress in 2021 and which was not renewed. Mr. Biden was in effect claiming credit for not passing another round of emergency assistance.White House officials contend that robust tax receipts, which helped reduce the deficit, are largely the result of strong economic growth that was supported by Mr. Biden’s economic policies.The State of the 2022 Midterm ElectionsElection Day is Tuesday, Nov. 8.Biden’s Speech: In a prime-time address, President Biden denounced Republicans who deny the legitimacy of elections, warning that the country’s democratic traditions are on the line.State Supreme Court Races: The traditionally overlooked contests have emerged this year as crucial battlefields in the struggle over the course of American democracy.Democrats’ Mounting Anxiety: Top Democratic officials are openly second-guessing their party’s pitch and tactics, saying Democrats have failed to unite around one central message.Social Security and Medicare: Republicans, eyeing a midterms victory, are floating changes to the safety net programs. Democrats have seized on the proposals to galvanize voters.It is common for presidents to spin economic numbers to improve their pitch to voters. Like many of his predecessors, Mr. Biden has emphasized economic indicators that are favorable to his record, including a low unemployment rate and the record pace of job growth in his first two years in office — a focus intended to win over an American public that remains deeply pessimistic about the economy, according to opinion polls.But as it gets closer to midterm elections that will determine the fate of the rest of Mr. Biden’s legislative agenda, the president’s cheerleading has increasingly grown to include exaggerations or misstatements about the economy and his policy record.White House officials have sometimes been forced to awkwardly correct Mr. Biden’s claims. Other times, they have doubled down on them.Senior administration officials acknowledged that some officials have unintentionally misspoken about the economy on occasion but denied that Mr. Biden or his administration had ever attempted to mislead the public about the economy. They said that his record requires no overstating.“The president’s economic agenda has given us an economy with historic job creation, faster declines in unemployment than prior recoveries, and private sector investments in new industries throughout the country,” Abdullah Hasan, a White House spokesman, said. “Where on occasion we have misspoken, as any human is allowed once in a while, we have acknowledged and corrected or clarified such honest mistakes.”Mr. Biden’s economic exaggerations generally pale in comparison to the tales spun by his predecessor, President Donald J. Trump. The former president, whose lies included insisting that he did not lose the 2020 election and that the Capitol was not attacked by his supporters on Jan. 6, 2021, regularly boasted of “the greatest economy in the history of the world” — a statement not based on any facts. Mr. Trump also said his giant tax cut package paid for itself when it did not, and he relied on outlandish economic growth projections to make his budgets balance.Jason Furman, an economist at Harvard University and a former Obama administration economic adviser, said some of Mr. Biden’s recent contentions appeared to be the types of “leaps of logic” that were common during election seasons. He pointed to the president’s claims of reducing the deficit and overseeing an increase in Social Security payments as examples.“This isn’t like making stuff up,” Mr. Furman said. “It’s just making a rather stretched and peculiar causal argument around true facts.”He added that Mr. Biden’s messaging bore no comparison to the falsehoods Mr. Trump used to tell about America being among the highest-taxed nations in the world, an inaccurate declaration given the far higher tax rates in countries such as France, Denmark and Belgium.“With President Trump, you had flat-out complete factual errors,” Mr. Furman said.Mr. Biden’s pitch has been centered on the notion that he is leading a post-pandemic transition to stable economic growth and that if Republicans take control of Congress, they will look to scale back social safety net programs, shut down the government and weaponize America’s need to borrow money to pay its financial obligations.But as the United States has struggled to contain inflation, the Biden administration has at times resorted to cherry-picking the most favorable data points or leaving out crucial context. In some cases, it has been a matter of presenting graphics that do not tell the whole story.For instance, a White House chart late last year depicted a decline in gas prices over a month as a significant drop. However, the rows of plunging bars showed a decrease of just 10 cents.Inflation has been the most slippery subject, with Biden administration officials often focusing on different measures as they seek silver linings in monthly reports.Cecilia Rouse, the chair of the White House’s Council of Economic Advisers, appeared to misstate the figures in an interview with CNN last month when she was pressed about why “core” inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, was at its highest level in 40 years in September.“So, if one looks month on month, it was actually flat,” Ms. Rouse said.The monthly rate had actually risen by 0.6 percent, a significant increase. The administration said that Ms. Rouse had misspoken and intended to say that core inflation was unchanged for two consecutive months, not that it was zero.Mr. Biden’s comment to Jimmy Kimmel in June about America’s rapid economic growth being the fastest in the world was contradicted by an International Monetary Fund report in July that showed several countries in Europe and Asia were growing faster than the United States this year. The fund predicted at the time that the United States would grow at a sluggish 2.3 percent in 2022 and further downgraded its outlook last month. In this case, the administration said that Mr. Biden was referring to the pace of America’s recovery from the pandemic compared to other major economies.The more recent presidential pronouncement at a forum in October that the student debt relief program passed Congress was perhaps the most head-scratching. It was starkly at odds with the reality that Mr. Biden rolled out the initiative through executive action and that it was being challenged in the courts. A White House official said that Mr. Biden was referring to the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act, which did not include student debt relief.And when Mr. Biden said in September gas prices were averaging below $2.99 a gallon in 41 states and the District of Columbia, they were actually $1 higher. The White House corrected the transcript of his remarks.The Social Security misstep has been portrayed across the spectrum as the biggest blunder.The suggestion by Mr. Biden that the increase in the Social Security cost of living adjustment was a sign of economic health drew bewilderment from Democrats and scorn from Republicans after the White House reinforced the point in a Twitter post from its account on Tuesday.“The only thing the White House can take credit for is the historic inflation that led to the need to increase Social Security payments,” Republicans on the House Ways and Means Committee said in a statement.By Wednesday afternoon, the White House had deleted the tweet.Karine Jean-Pierre, the White House press secretary, tried to explain its removal by saying that the message was lacking crucial information about other ways older Americans were saving money through lower Medicare premiums.“Look, the tweet was not complete,” she said. “Usually when we put out a tweet we post it with context, and it did not have that context.” More

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    Here’s where the jobs are for October 2022 — in one chart

    The health-care and social assistance sector enjoyed strong gains, adding 71,100 jobs last month.
    Manufacturing posted a strong month after adding 32,000 jobs, boosted by increases in the durable goods industry.

    Jobs growth came in better than expected in October thanks in part to strong gains in the manufacturing, health-care, and professional and business services sectors.
    Manufacturing jobs increased by 32,000 last month, boosted by gains in the durable goods industry, according to the Labor Department. That advance brought the sector’s average monthly job gain for the year to 37,000, compared with 30,000 per month in 2021.

    Some market participants found the increase notable given the sharp slowdown in goods spending in the economy this year, as consumers shift more of their spending to services.
    “The manufacturing gain of 32,000 suggest the economy is far from slowing in a meaningful way,” TradeStation Group’s David Russell wrote in a Friday note.
    The health-care and social assistance sector also enjoyed strong gains, adding 71,100 jobs last month. By itself, the health-care sector gained 53,000 jobs in October, boosted by growth in ambulatory health-care services, as well as nursing and residential-care facilities.
    According to the Labor Department, employment in health care has risen by an average 47,000 per month so far in 2022, outpacing the 9,000 jobs gains posted per month last year.
    “People delayed a lot of procedures because of Covid for the last couple of years, so hip replacements and things that were somewhat optional,” said Horizon Investments’ CIO Scott Ladner. “We’re starting to see a surge of those procedures come back.”

    Leisure and hospitality employment, meanwhile, continued its upward trend, adding 35,000 jobs in October. Jobs growth in the sector was mainly driven by an increase in accommodation jobs, which added 20,000 last month. Positions in restaurants and drinking establishments remained little changed, up 6,000.
    The sector is still down by 1.1 million jobs, or 6.5%, from its pre-pandemic level, according to the Labor Department.
    Professional and business services also was a standout sector, adding 39,000 jobs in October.
    Several sectors lagged those areas in the October jobs report, however. Financial activities gained just 3,000, as employment in the sector has “changed little” over the past six months, the Labor Department said. Construction added just 1,000 jobs in October.
    The retail trade sector was also little changed heading into the holiday season, adding just 7,200 jobs.

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    The unemployment rate for Black men fell in October, but so did labor force participation

    The unemployment rate for Black men fell to 5.3% in October from 5.8% a month earlier, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics released Friday.
    That was for the wrong reasons, however — labor force participation and the employment to population ratio fell.
    Black and Hispanic workers still have higher rates of unemployment than white counterparts.

    A Now Hiring sign at a Dunkin’ restaurant on September 21, 2021 in Hallandale, Florida.
    Joe Raedle | Getty Images

    The unemployment rate for Black men ticked down in October while it rose for most other groups, but that may be because workers are dropping out of the labor force.
    The October nonfarm payrolls print showed that the U.S. economy added 261,000 jobs in the month and that the unemployment rate for all workers increased to 3.7% from 3.5%.

    For Black men, unemployment fell to 5.3% from 5.8% a month earlier on a seasonally adjusted basis. White unemployment rose to 3.2% overall up from 3.1% a month earlier.  
    “It went in the right direction for the wrong reasons,” said Bill Spriggs, an economics professor at Howard University and chief economist for the AFL-CIO.

    The wrong reasons

    The downward motion in unemployment for Black men is likely due to the labor force participation rate, which dipped slightly to 67.2% in October, just below the previous month’s reading of 68%.
    In addition, the employment-to-population ratio for Black men fell to 63.6% from 64.1% in September, which could indicate that workers have stopped looking for jobs, sending unemployment lower.
    Unemployment for Hispanic workers also jumped in October, outpacing the uptick for Black and white workers. It jumped to 4.2% from 3.8% in September.

    “It’s showing this continued frustration that workers of color are having in the labor market,” said Spriggs. Though overall there is strength in the labor market, “this is not the tight labor market where people can just walk in and get a job no matter who they are.”
    Overall Black unemployment ticked up led by Black women. In October, the unemployment rate for Black women jumped to 5.8% from 5.4% in September.
    “This is concerning because throughout both the pandemic and the economic recovery from the pandemic crisis, Black women have been lagging behind,” said Kate Bahn, director of economic policy and chief economist at the Washington Center for Equitable Growth, a non-profit

    On the brighter side, the employment to population ratio for Black women didn’t change, though labor market participation ticked up during the month. That could be a sign that more Black women are returning to the labor force and are looking for jobs but haven’t yet found employment, noted Valerie Wilson, director of the program on race, ethnicity and the economy at the Economic Policy Institute.
    “It doesn’t suggest that there’s a huge number of people losing jobs,” she said.

    Going forward

    Of course, one month of data does not make a trend, so it’s important to look at the longer-term picture for workers of color.
    Generally, the unemployment rate for workers of color has stepped down in recent months in-line with white counterparts, and labor force participation and the employment to population ratio have mostly held steady, said Wilson.
    Still, there may be cause for concern going forward depending on how the Federal Reserve reads the October report. The labor market has remained strong amid historic interest rate hikes meant to tame high inflation, and the central bank is poised to continue its path of raising rates.
    If the Fed goes too far and pushed the U.S. economy into a recession, that could have the worst impact on workers of color.
    “If we throw the economy into a recession, that impact at least historically is more likely to hit harder in communities of color,” said Wilson.
    — CNBC’s Gabriel Cortes contributed reporting.

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