More stories

  • in

    Economist Austan Goolsbee Is Named to Lead the Chicago Fed

    A longtime University of Chicago economist who served in the Obama White House will be president of one of the Fed’s 12 regional districts.The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago said on Thursday that Austan D. Goolsbee will become its next president, taking a seat at the central bank’s policy-setting table as officials work to bring down the fastest inflation in decades.Mr. Goolsbee, who was a member and later chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers during the Obama administration between 2009 and 2011, has long been a faculty member at the University of Chicago’s Booth School of Business. He has a doctorate in economics from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and studied for his undergraduate degree at Yale.He will replace Charles Evans, who has been in the role since 2007 and at the Chicago Fed since 1991 and is retiring.The Chicago Fed district is made up of Iowa and most of Illinois, Indiana, Michigan and Wisconsin. The Fed’s 12 presidents oversee large staffs of researchers and bank supervisors and vote on monetary policy on a rotating basis.Mr. Goolsbee will vote on policy in 2023, meaning that he will be an important voice at the table as the Fed continues its effort to wrangle rapid inflation and tries to decide just how aggressive a policy response that will require. He is expected to start on Jan. 9.“These have been challenging, unprecedented times for the economy,” Mr. Goolsbee said in the statement from the Chicago Fed announcing the decision. “The bank has an important role to play.”Mr. Goolsbee warned in an opinion column last year that using past economic experiences to understand pandemic-era inflation and labor market changes would be a mistake.“Past business cycles look nothing like what the United States has gone through in the pandemic,” he wrote. “The most interesting questions aren’t really about recession and recovery. They center on whether any of the pandemic changes will last.”He also participates in surveys of economic experts carried out by the Chicago Booth Initiative on Global Markets, which offers a snapshot of some of his thoughts on relevant topics including inflation and the growing divide between the rich and the poor. Early this year, he noted that corporate profit margins have increased — a sign that companies are increasing prices by more than their costs are climbing — but said that they had not shot up enough to explain inflation. In response to a question about whether price controls could be used to contain prices, he wrote: “Just stop. Seriously.”In another Booth poll, asked if “the increasing share of income and wealth among the richest Americans is a major threat to capitalism,” he responded: “Duh.”While many economists responded to Mr. Goolsbee’s appointment positively, there was some backlash. Senator Bob Menendez, a Democrat from New Jersey, has been pushing the Fed to appoint Latino leaders. He said the selection process — which is run by the local business and nonprofit leaders who sit on a regional bank’s board — is antiquated and opaque.The result risks “perpetuating a legacy that has shut out Latinos from the upper echelons of leadership at the Fed,” Mr. Menendez said in a statement. More

  • in

    Key inflation measure that the Fed follows rose 0.2% in October, less than expected

    The core personal consumption expenditures price index rose 0.2% in October, slightly below the estimate. The index increased 5% year over year.
    Personal income jumped 0.7% for the month, well ahead of the 0.4% estimate, and spending rose 0.8%, as expected.
    Weekly jobless claims totaled 225,000, a decline of 16,000 from the previous week and below the 235,000 estimate.
    Outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported that planned layoffs increased 127% on a monthly basis in November and were up 417% from a year ago.

    Inflation rose in October about in line with estimates, sending a sign that price increases at least might be stabilizing, the Commerce Department reported Thursday.
    The core personal consumption expenditures price index, a gauge that excludes food and energy and is favored by the Federal Reserve, rose 0.2% for the month and was up 5% from a year ago. The monthly increase was below the 0.3% Dow Jones estimate, while the annual gain was in line.

    The gains also represent a deceleration from September, which saw a monthly increase of 0.5% and an annual gain of 5.2%.
    Including food and energy, headline PCE was up 0.3% on the month and 6% on an annual basis. The monthly increase was the same as September, while the annual gain was a step down from the 6.3% pace.
    The department also reported that personal income jumped 0.7% for the month, well ahead of the 0.4% estimate, and spending rose 0.8%, as expected.
    In another key report, a widely followed gauge of manufacturing activity posted its lowest reading in two and a half years for November.
    The ISM Manufacturing Index registered a reading of 49%, representing the level of businesses reporting expansion for the period. The reading was 1.2 percentage points below October and the lowest since May 2020, in the early days of the Covid pandemic.

    Declines in order backlogs and imports were the biggest drags on the index. The closely watched prices index was off 3.6 points to 43%, indicating inflation is abating, while the employment index also receded, down 1.6 points to 48.4% an contraction territory.
    Markets were mostly lower following the morning’s data, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down more than 250 points in early trading while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite posted smaller losses.
    “This morning’s data was a goldilocks report as it showed core inflation continuing to drop,” said Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer for Independent Advisor Alliance. “If inflation keeps coming down, then markets will keep running higher, as investors will conclude that the Fed won’t need to raise rates as high, or keep them high for as long, as previously expected.”
    While the Fed takes in a broad range of measures to gauge inflation, it prefers the PCE index as it takes into account changes in consumer behavior such as substituting less expensive goods for pricier items. That’s different than the consumer price index, which is a raw measure of changes in prices.
    Policymakers view core inflation as a more reliable measure as food and energy prices tend to fluctuate more than other items.
    In other economic news Thursday, the Labor Department reported that weekly jobless claims totaled 225,000, a decline of 16,000 from the previous week and below the 235,000 estimate.
    Another jobs report from outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas indicated that planned layoffs increased 127% on a monthly basis in November and were up 417% from a year ago. Even with the massive surge, the firm noted the year-to-date layoff total is the second-lowest ever in a data set that dates to 1993.
    The data comes at a pivotal time for the Fed, which is in the midst of an interest rate-hiking campaign in an effort to bring down inflation.
    In a speech Wednesday, Chairman Jerome Powell said he saw some signs that price increases are abating but added that he needs to see more consistent evidence before the central bank can change gears on policy. He did, however, indicate that he thinks the rate hikes can start getting smaller, perhaps as early as December.
    “The truth is that the path ahead for inflation remains highly uncertain,” Powell said.
    The PCE data showed that the numbers remain volatile. Goods inflation rose 0.3% for the month after declining the previous three months, while services inflation increased 0.4%, down from two consecutive 0.6% increases. Economists have been looking for a shift back to a more services-based economy after outsized demand for goods played a major role in the inflation surge in 2021.
    Food inflation increased 0.4% while energy goods and services prices rose 2.5%.
    The Fed is watching the jobs market closely for more signs of cooling inflation.
    Jobless claims had been trending slightly higher, and the level of continuing claims increased 57,000 to 1.61 million, the highest level since February.

    WATCH LIVEWATCH IN THE APP More

  • in

    Despite Inflation, Consumers Kept Up Their Spending in October

    Consumption climbed and personal income rose, even after accounting for inflation, new data from the Commerce Department showed.Americans continued spending in October, with personal consumption expenditures picking up even after adjusting for inflation, new data released Thursday showed.Consumption climbed 0.8 percent in October compared with the prior month, up from a previous gain of 0.6 percent. Adjusted for inflation, spending climbed by 0.5 percent.While economists expected those gains, they underscore that consumers remain resilient in the face of rapid price increases and rising interest rates. The Federal Reserve has lifted borrowing costs at the most aggressive pace since the 1980s this year, making it more expensive to borrow on a credit card or to buy a car.Despite that, Americans continue to open their wallets. More recent anecdotal data suggest that the holiday shopping season is off to a strong start: Retail sales over the Thanksgiving weekend were up 10.9 percent from the prior year, excluding cars and not adjusting for inflation, based on Mastercard data.But people are also becoming more price sensitive as their savings run down and expensive food and gas weigh on family budgets, and stores have begun to discount products again to lure and retain customers. That could help to lower inflation, if it is drastic enough and continues.Americans are being buoyed in part by a strong labor market that is helping them to take home more money, and by one-time payments from states, some of which have stimulus money left to disperse or are benefiting from strong tax receipts.Personal income rose by 0.7 percent in October, and 0.4 percent after adjusting for inflation, Thursday’s data showed. That was the biggest inflation-adjusted increase since July.Personal income includes government social benefits, which helped to boost it this month, “primarily reflecting one-time refundable tax credits issued by states,” the Bureau of Economic Analysis said in its release. More

  • in

    California Panel Sizes Up Reparations for Black Citizens

    In the two years since nationwide social justice protests followed the murder of George Floyd, California has undertaken the nation’s most sweeping effort yet to explore some concrete restitution to Black citizens to address the enduring economic effects of slavery and racism.A nine-member Reparations Task Force has spent months traveling across California to learn about the generational effects of racist policies and actions. The group, formed by legislation signed by Gov. Gavin Newsom in 2020, is scheduled to release a report to lawmakers in Sacramento next year outlining recommendations for state-level reparations.“We are looking at reparations on a scale that is the largest since Reconstruction,” said Jovan Scott Lewis, a professor at the University of California, Berkeley, who is a member of the task force.While the creation of the task force is a bold first step, much remains unclear about whether lawmakers will ultimately throw their political weight behind reparations proposals that will require vast financial resources from the state.“That is why we must put forward a robust plan, with plenty of options,” Dr. Lewis said.The effort parallels others on a local level, in California and elsewhere, to address the nation’s stark racial disparities and a persistent wealth gap. The median wealth of Black households in the United States is $24,100, compared with $188,200 for white households, according to the most recent Federal Reserve Board Survey of Consumer Finances.In a preliminary report this year, the task force outlined how enslaved Black people were forced to California during the Gold Rush era and how, in the 1950s and 1960s, racially restrictive covenants and redlining segregated Black Californians in many of the state’s largest cities.Californians eligible for reparations, the task force decided in March, would be descendants of enslaved African Americans or of a “free Black person living in the United States prior to the end of the 19th century.” Nearly 6.5 percent of California residents, roughly 2.5 million, identify as Black or African American. The panel is now considering how reparations should be distributed — some favor tuition and housing grants while others want direct cash payments.The task force has identified five areas — housing discrimination, mass incarceration, unjust property seizures, devaluation of Black businesses and health care — in discussions for compensation. For example, from 1933 to 1977, when it comes to housing discrimination, the task force estimates compensation of around $569 billion, with $223,200 per person.Final figures will be released in the report next year; it would then be up to the Legislature to act upon the recommendations and determine how to fund them.The state and local efforts have faced opposition over the potentially steep cost to taxpayers and, in one case, derided as an ill-conceived campaign to impose an “era of social justice.”More on CaliforniaJaywalking Law: California has had one of the strictest jaywalking laws in the nation. Starting Jan. 1, that will no longer be the case.Remaking a River: Taming the Los Angeles River helped Los Angeles emerge as a global megalopolis, but it also left a gaping scar across the territory. Imagining the river’s future poses new challenges.A Piece of Black History Destroyed: Lincoln Heights — a historically Black community in a predominantly white, rural county in Northern California — endured for decades. Then came the Mill fire.Employee Strike: In one of the nation’s biggest strikes in recent years, teaching assistants, researchers and other workers across the University of California system walked off the job to demand higher pay.A two-day public meeting of the state task force this fall, in a makeshift hearing room tucked inside a Los Angeles museum, included a mix of comments from local residents on how they had been personally affected and how the disparities should be addressed, along with testimony from experts who have studied reparations.While even broad-scale reparations would be unlikely to eliminate the racial wealth gap, they could narrow it significantly, and proponents hope California’s effort will influence other states and federal legislators to follow suit.“Calling these local projects reparations is to some degree creating a detour from the central task of compelling the federal government to do its job,” said William A. Darity Jr., a professor at Duke University and a leading scholar on reparations. Even so, Dr. Darity, who is advising the California task force, said “there is an increasing recognition” that the lasting effects of slavery must be addressed.Every year for almost three decades, Representative John Conyers Jr. of Michigan introduced legislation that would have created a commission to explore reparations, but the measure consistently stalled in Congress. After Mr. Conyers retired in 2017, Representative Sheila Jackson Lee of Texas began championing the measure, which passed a House committee for the first time last year, but stalled on the floor.Underscoring the political hurdles, opinions on reparations are sharply divided by race. Last year, an online survey by the University of Massachusetts Amherst found that 86 percent of African Americans supported compensating the descendants of slaves, compared with 28 percent of white people. Other polls have also shown wide splits.Still, several efforts have gotten off the ground recently.In 2021, officials in Evanston, Ill., a Chicago suburb, approved $10 million in reparations in the form of housing grants. Three months later, officials in Asheville, N.C., committed $2.1 million to reparations. And over the summer, the Los Angeles County Board of Supervisors approved a plan to transfer ownership of Bruce’s Beach — a parcel in Manhattan Beach that was seized with scant compensation from a Black couple in 1924 — to the couple’s great-grandsons and great-great-grandsons.“We want to see the land and economic wealth stolen from Black families all across this country returned,” said Kavon Ward, an activist who advocated on behalf of the Bruces’ descendants and has since started a group, Where Is My Land, that seeks to help Black Americans secure restitution.“We are in a moment that we cannot let pass.”A so-called blight law from 1945, the task force’s interim report explains, paved the way for officials to use eminent domain to destroy Black communities, including shuttering more than 800 businesses and displacing 4,700 households in San Francisco’s Western Addition beginning in the 1950s.After work on Interstate 210 began later that decade, the report goes on, the freeway was eventually built in the path of a Black business district in Pasadena, where city officials offered residents $75,000 — less than the minimum cost to buy a new home in the city — for their old homes.And there is Russell City, an unincorporated parcel of Alameda County near the San Francisco Bay shoreline where many Black families fleeing racial terror in the Deep South built lives during the Great Migration. Testimony to the task force by Russell City residents recounts the community’s rise and ultimate bulldozing.A mural honoring the history of Russell City in what is now Hayward, Calif.Jim Wilson/The New York TimesMonique Henderson-Ford grew up hearing stories from her elders about Russell City, where many Black families fleeing racial terror in the Deep South built lives during the Great Migration.Jim Wilson/The New York TimesThe town was demolished to make way for an industrial park.Jim Wilson/The New York TimesUnlike neighboring Hayward and San Leandro, Russell City didn’t have racist housing covenants stipulating that only white families could own certain homes. After World War II, it grew into a small but tight community of Black and Latino families that once included seven churches.On weekends, children played on the unpaved streets as their parents, many of whom worked in the shipyards, sat on porches, and on some foggy nights, Ray Charles and Big Mama Thornton played shows at one of the town’s music venues, called the Country Club.“It was vibrant,” said Monique Henderson-Ford, who grew up hearing stories about Russell City from her mother, grandmother and cousins.After leaving Louisiana in the 1950s, her grandparents lived briefly in San Francisco but were displaced by an urban renewal project. Using savings from years of work at Pacific Gas & Electric, her grandfather paid $7,500 for their property and home in Russell City, and the family soon added three small houses to the homestead for their sons.“This was their American dream,” Ms. Henderson-Ford said in an interview.But it didn’t last long.Lacking sewer lines and reliable electricity, the area was designated as a blight, and officials called for its destruction and the area to be turned into an industrial park. Russell City was annexed into Hayward, and the city and county bought up some properties and seized others through eminent domain. Residents, including Ms. Henderson-Ford’s grandmother, pleaded with officials to be allowed to remain in their homes.“I got a nice place,” she told the Alameda County Board of Supervisors during a public meeting in 1963, according to a transcript. “Allow me a break.”In exchange for their property and homes, county officials gave the family roughly $2,200, less than a third of what it had originally paid, according to Ms. Henderson-Ford.On a recent morning, Ms. Henderson-Ford and her cousin joined a reporter on a walk through what was once Russell City but is now an industrial park.They passed the spot where their grandfather used to fish, yanking up striped bass from the bay as he peered northwest and watched San Francisco’s skyline take its distinctive shape.“Imagine if the houses were still here,” Ms. Henderson-Ford said. “We would all be sitting on a fortune.”Amid the uproar in 2020 over the murder of Mr. Floyd, a Black man, in police custody in Minneapolis, Artavia Berry, who lives in Hayward, knew she had to do something.“We could not look away from what happened right here,” said Ms. Berry, who learned the history of Russell City after moving to the region from Chicago a decade ago.Ms. Berry, who leads the Community Services Commission, a municipal advisory body, composed what would become a formal apology from the City of Hayward to onetime residents of Russell City. Last November, the City Council approved the resolution, as well as several follow-up steps.An aerial view of the area as the industrial park that replaced Russell City, lower right, was under construction in 1971.Hayward Area Historical SocietyA kindergarten class on the playground at a school in Russell City in 1949.Hayward Area Historical SocietyBut in a public letter to city officials, Hayward Concerned Citizens, the group that railed against an “era of social justice,” said the apology was misguided, arguing that Alameda County, not the City of Hayward, had pushed residents out.“We are strongly opposed to any direct financial reparations,” the group wrote.For Gloria Moore, who grew up in Russell City, the words stung.Now 79, she was 3 when her parents arrived in Russell City from Texarkana, Ark. Her mother worked as a cook at a local elementary school and her father worked for Todd Shipyards in the Bay Area. She still has vivid memories of walking to school in the mud when it rained, because the streets weren’t paved and there was no public transportation.After their home was taken for about $2,200, the family members struggled to regain the financial stability and community they had built in Russell City.By the 1970s, Ms. Moore had moved to Los Angeles to begin a career in city government, and she remembered noticing how many of her co-workers owned their own homes. She was renting.Over the years, she and other former residents of Russell City have gathered at a park in Hayward for a Labor Day reunion, where they share stories and often tears.“Sometimes things were suppressed because it was too painful,” she recalled. “But no one ever forgot.” More

  • in

    Fed hikes and a stronger dollar are fueling risks of political instability in Africa

    In early November, the Fed implemented a fourth consecutive three-quarter point interest rate increase to take its short-term borrowing rate to its highest level since January 2008.
    Government debt in sub-Saharan Africa has risen to its highest level in more than a decade as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
    The ability of African governments to service their external debt will continue to be weakened by scarcer financing and higher interest rates, Verisk Maplecroft said.

    ACCRA, GHANA – NOVEMBER 05: Ghanaians march during the ‘Ku Me Preko’ demonstration on November 5, 2022, in Accra, Ghana. People took to the streets of Ghana’s capital to protest against the soaring cost of living, aggravated since the Russian invasion of Ukraine
    Ernest Ankomah/Getty Images

    The U.S. Federal Reserve’s monetary policy tightening and a strengthening dollar are having a knock-on effect on African nations’ balance sheets and public debt burdens, according to a new report.
    In early November, the Fed implemented a fourth consecutive three-quarter point interest rate increase to take its short-term borrowing rate to its highest level since January 2008.

    Meanwhile, a combination of rate hikes, the war in Ukraine and fears of recession have driven the traditional “safe haven” greenback higher. Despite a recent tail-off since its peak in late September, the DXY U.S. dollar index is up more than 11% year-to-date.
    Government debt in sub-Saharan Africa has risen to its highest level in more than a decade as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In a report Tuesday, risk consultancy Verisk Maplecroft highlighted that debt is now 77% of gross domestic product on average across six key African economies: Nigeria, Ghana, Ethiopia, Kenya, Zambia and Mozambique.
    These nations have added a median of 10.3 GDP percentage points to this debt burden since 2019, the report noted.

    As the supply chain disruptions provoked by the post-pandemic surge in demand and the Ukraine war have driven central banks to raise interest rates, the increase in sovereign debt yields has further constrained African balance sheets.
    “Consecutive base rate rises by the U.S. Federal Reserve have resulted in reduced capital inflows into Africa and widened spreads on the continent’s sovereign bonds,” said Verisk Maplecroft Africa Analyst Benjamin Hunter. 

    “Exposure to international interest rate changes is exacerbated by the large proportion of African public debt that is held in dollars.”
    The ability of African governments to service their external debt will continue to be weakened by scarcer financing and higher interest rates, Verisk Maplecroft said, while domestic rate rises in response to soaring inflation are also intensifying the overall public debt burden of many sub-Saharan African countries.

    “High public debt levels and elevated borrowing costs will constrain public spending, which will likely result in a deteriorating ESG and political risk landscape across the continent,” Hunter added. 
    “Weaker sovereign fundamentals and higher ESG+P risks will in turn deter investors, further weakening Africa’s market position.”
    Verisk Maplecroft expects the Fed’s hawkish stance to take its base rate from 3.75% in November to between 4.25% and 5% in 2023, prolonging the downward pressure on African sovereign debt markets.
    The firm does not foresee a substantial loosening of Africa’s domestic monetary conditions over the next 12 months either, which Hunter said will keep borrowing costs high and “disincentivise inflows into African sovereign debt markets.”
    Spotlight on Ghana
    Hunter pointed to Ghana as among the most affected by this negative feedback loop between a deepening public debt burden, a constrained fiscal position and a deteriorating ESG and political landscape.
    The West African nation’s public debt has risen from 62.6% of GDP in 2019 to an estimated 90.7% in 2022, while inflation soared to 40.4% in October and the central bank on Monday raised interest rates by 250 basis points to 27%. The Bank of Ghana has now hiked by 1,350 basis points since the tightening cycle began in 2021.
    With the cedi currency — one of the worst performers in the world this year — continuing to lose value and inflation continuing to rise, however, analysts at Oxford Economics Africa projected this week that the main interest rate will likely be hiked by another 200 basis points early in 2023.
    “With living standards deteriorating as a result, civil unrest and government stability risks have worsened. In November 2022, demonstrators in Accra called for the resignation of President Nana Akufo-Addo,” Hunter said. 

    ACCRA, GHANA – NOVEMBER 05: Ghanaians march during the ‘Ku Me Preko’ demonstration on November 5, 2022, in Accra, Ghana. People took to the streets of Ghana’s capital to protest against the soaring cost of living, aggravated since the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
    Ernest Ankomah/Getty Images

    “In turn, this instability will widen spreads on Ghana’s sovereign debt, deepening the negative feedback loop by increasing external borrowing costs; our research indicates that weaker performers on the Governance pillar of our Sovereign ESG ratings have to contend with 25% higher yields on average.”
    The IMF will visit Ghana again in December to continue discussions on the country’s request for a debt restructuring plan. Meanwhile, Moody’s on Tuesday downgraded the country’s credit rating even deeper into “junk” territory, citing the likelihood that private investors rack up steep losses as a result of the restructuring.
    The IMF is currently providing or discussing debt relief with 34 African nations, including through the G-20 Common Framework established during the Covid-19 pandemic. Verisk Maplecroft notes that while IMF assistance will help shrink fiscal deficits and restructure debts, countries implored by the IMF to cut spending will likely experience “negative ESG+P trade-offs.”
    “Although the IMF has emphasised that targeted social spending on the most vulnerable must not be cut, social spending on programmes such as food and fuel subsidies will likely be scaled back,” Hunter said. 
    “The inability to mitigate the impact of external economic shocks and inflation through public spending will likely have reverberating impacts across the continent’s ESG+P risk landscape.”

    WATCH LIVEWATCH IN THE APP More

  • in

    Job openings fell in October amid Fed efforts to cool labor market

    The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey showed there were 10.33 million vacancies for the month, decline of 353,000 from September and down 760,000 compared with a year ago.
    That left 1.7 job openings per available worker for the month, down from a 2 to 1 ratio just a few months ago.

    Workers sort packages at a FedEx Express facility on Cyber Monday in Garden City, New York, on Monday, Nov. 28, 2022.
    Michael Nagle | Bloomberg | Getty Images

    Job openings dipped in October amid the Federal Reserve’s efforts to cool off a red-hot employment market, the Labor Department reported Wednesday.
    The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, a closely watched gauge of slack in the labor force, showed there were 10.3 million vacancies for the month. That’s a decline of 353,000 from September and down 760,000 compared with a year ago.

    That left 1.7 job openings per available worker for the month, down from a 2 to 1 ratio just a few months ago.
    The Fed has instituted a series of rate hikes aimed at bringing down runaway inflation. One area of particular focus has been the ultra-tight jobs market, with a 3.7% unemployment rate and wage gains that are helping to fuel price pressures.
    While the monthly numbers can be volatile, the JOLTS report provided at least some measure that the Fed’s inflation-fighting efforts could be having an impact. The report came the same day that payroll processing firm ADP reported job gains of just 127,000 in November, the lowest total since January 2021.
    The quits level, a measure of worker confidence that they can easily move from one job to another, also declined, edging lower to 4.026 million, down 34,000 from a month ago and well below the record 4.5 million in November 2021 during what had been dubbed the “Great Resignation.”
    Total separations nudged higher to 5.68 million, while layoffs and discharges also rose, up 58,000 to 1.39 million.

    The Labor Department on Friday will release payroll growth numbers for November. Economists expect job growth of 200,000 for the month, according to Dow Jones estimates.
    Correction: ADP reported job gains of 127,000 in November, the lowest total since January 2021. An earlier version misstated the timing. Economists expect job growth of 200,000 for November, according to Dow Jones estimates. Earlier versions misstated the month and the figure.

    WATCH LIVEWATCH IN THE APP More

  • in

    Job Openings Ease, but Layoffs Are Little Changed

    Government data for October shows the labor market is still strong, though cooling slightly.Employers continued to pull back in October on the number of jobs they were looking to fill, the latest sign that the labor market is strong but gradually cooling.About 10.3 million positions were open on the last day of October, the Labor Department said Wednesday, down from 10.7 million the previous month. Vacant positions in October effectively equaled the level in August, seasonally adjusted.Reductions in job openings occurred in a broad range of industries including manufacturing, construction, professional and businesses services, and state and local government. Still, openings in every major industry remained above prepandemic levels, underscoring the persistent strength in the labor market despite higher borrowing costs.The Federal Reserve is trying to constrain hiring in its efforts to tame inflation, concerned that a hot job market is forcing employers to raise wages, contributing to soaring prices.Other measures in the report — the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS — affirm the labor market’s resilience. There were roughly 1.7 posted jobs for every unemployed worker, still extraordinarily high by historical standards.In recent weeks, a number of technology companies have announced sweeping layoffs. Elon Musk, Twitter’s new owner, slashed the company’s work force in half in early November. Meta, the parent company of Facebook and Instagram, shed 11,000 people, or about 13 percent of its workers.Even as the job cuts in the technology industry have dominated the headlines, however, layoffs across the entire economy in October were largely unchanged at 1.4 million, low by historical standards, suggesting that employers remain hesitant to part with workers after the pandemic-era hiring frenzy.The number of workers voluntarily quitting their jobs — an indicator of how confident workers are that they will be able to find better employment opportunities — ticked down but only slightly.Although the report overall pointed to continued elevated demand for workers, there were undeniable signs that the labor market is weakening.After a surprise jump in September, job openings resumed their march lower. There were four million quits in October, continuing the downward trend from the “Great Resignation” peak last year. The rate of people quitting their jobs — the number of people voluntarily leaving their jobs divided by total employment — was the lowest it had been since May 2021, at 2.6 percent.“Today’s JOLTS report shows that the job market is gradually slowing,” said Daniel Zhao, an economist at the career site Glassdoor. “And that’s in line with what we have been seeing in other data as well.”A more up-to-date readout of the economy will come on Friday, when the Labor Department releases data on monthly job growth and unemployment in November. Employers added 261,000 jobs in October. More

  • in

    Private hiring increased by just 127,000 jobs in November, well below estimate, ADP reports

    Private Companies added just 127,000 positions for the month, a steep reduction from the 239,000 in October and well below the 190,000 estimate.
    Leisure and hospitality saw an increase of 224,000, but that was offset by losses in manufacturing, professional and business services, financial activities and information services.

    Private hiring slowed sharply during November in a sign that the historically tight labor market could be losing some steam, according to a report Wednesday from payroll processing firm ADP.
    Companies added just 127,000 positions for the month, a steep reduction from the 239,000 the firm reported for October and well below the Dow Jones estimate for 190,000. It also was the lowest total since January.

    The relatively weak total comes amid Federal Reserve efforts to loosen up a jobs picture in which there are still nearly two open positions for every available worker. The central bank has raised its benchmark borrowing rate six times this year, but the unemployment rate is still 3.7%, near the lowest since 1969.
    “Turning points can be hard to capture in the labor market, but our data suggest that Federal Reserve tightening is having an impact on job creation and pay gains,” said ADP chief economist Nela Richardson. “In addition, companies are no longer in hyper-replacement mode. Fewer people are quitting and the post-pandemic recovery is stabilizing.”
    The ADP report comes two days before the Labor Department releases its more closely watched nonfarm payrolls count. Economists polled by Dow Jones expect that report to show a gain of 200,000 after an increase of 261,000 in October.
    In the ADP report, the biggest sector gainer by far was leisure and hospitality, which saw an increase of 224,000.
    However, that was offset by losses in manufacturing (-100,000), professional and business services (-77,000), financial activities (-34,000) and information services (-25,000). Goods-producing industries overall saw a decline of 86,000 jobs, while services firms added 213,000 on net.

    Even with the shaky jobs numbers, salaries continued to climb.
    Pay increased 7.6% from a year ago, ADP said, though that was a slightly slower pace than the 7.7% reported for October.
    From a size standpoint, all of the job creation came from companies that employ 50-499 workers, a sector that added 246,000 jobs. Small companies lost 51,000 while big firms were off 68,000.

    WATCH LIVEWATCH IN THE APP More