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    ECB hikes rates, sees significant increases ahead as it announces plan to shrink balance sheet

    The European Central Bank opted for a smaller rate hike at its Thursday meeting, taking its key rate from 1.5% to 2%.
    But the ECB said it would need to raise rates “significantly” further to tame inflation.

    President of the European Central Bank Christine Lagarde attends a hearing of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs in the European Parliament on November 28, 2022 in Brussels, Belgium.
    Thierry Monasse | Getty Images News | Getty Images

    The European Central Bank opted for a smaller rate hike at its Thursday meeting, taking its key rate from 1.5% to 2%, but said it would need to raise rates “significantly” further to tame inflation.
    It also said that from the beginning of March 2023 it would begin to reduce its balance sheet by 15 billion euros ($15.9 billion) per month on average until the end of the second quarter of 2023.

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    It said it would announce more details about the reduction of its asset purchase program (APP) holdings in February, and that it would regularly reassess the pace of decline to ensure it was consistent with its monetary policy strategy.
    The widely expected 50 basis point rate rise is the central bank’s fourth increase this year. A basis point is equivalent to 0.01%.
    It hiked by 75 basis points in October and September and by 50 basis points in July, bringing rates out of negative territory for the first time since 2014.
    “The Governing Council judges that interest rates will still have to rise significantly at a steady pace to reach levels that are sufficiently restrictive to ensure a timely return of inflation to the 2% medium-term target,” the ECB said in a statement.

    ‘We’re not pivoting’

    At a news conference following the announcement, ECB President Christine Lagarde said: “Anybody who thinks this is a pivot for the ECB is wrong. We’re not pivoting, we’re not wavering, we are showing determination and resilience in continuing a journey where we have. … If you compare with the Fed, we have more ground to cover. We have longer to go.”

    “We’re not slowing down. We’re in for the long game.”
    The central bank said it was working on euro zone inflation forecasts that had been “significantly revised up,” and sees inflation remaining above its 2% target until 2025.
    It now expects average inflation of 8.4% in 2022, 6.3% in 2023, 3.4% in 2024 and 2.3% in 2025.
    However, it sees a recession in the region being “relatively short-lived and shallow.”
    It comes after the latest inflation data for the euro zone showed a slight slowing in price rises in November, although the rate remains at 10% annually.
    Lagarde told CNBC’s Annette Weisbach, “One of the key messages, in addition to the hike, is the indication that not only will we raise interest rates further, which we had said before, but that today we judged that interest rates will still have to rise significantly, at a steady place.”
    “It is pretty much obvious that on the basis of the data that we have at the moment, significant rise at a steady pace means we should have to raise interest rates at a 50 basis point pace for a period of time,” she said.
    Regarding the announcement on quantitative tightening, she said the ECB wanted to follow the principles of being predictable and measured.
    Its decision to make average 15 billion euro reductions in its APP over four months represents roughly half the redemptions over that period of time, and was based on advice from its market team and all central banks and other officials involved in its decision-making, Lagarde said.
    “It seemed an appropriate number in order to normalize our balance sheet, bearing in mind that the key tool is the interest rate,” she added.
    The ECB will achieve the reduction by not reinvesting all of the principal payments from maturing securities in its 5 trillion euro bond portfolio.
    The euro rose from a 0.5% loss against the dollar to a 0.4% gain following the announcement, but European equities in the Stoxx 600 index dropped 2.4%.

    Hawkish message

    The U.S. Federal Reserve on Wednesday increased its main rate by 0.5 percentage point, as did the Bank of England and the Swiss National Bank on Thursday morning.
    “In contrast to the Bank of England, this is a hawkish hike, given the language on [quantitative tightening] and a definitive start date,” said analysts at BMO Capital Markets.
    However, they noted the ECB was lagging other central banks in reducing its balance sheet and that reinvestments under its pandemic emergency purchase program would continue.
    “The language in the statement has an operational feel to it, and the Bank is leaving the path of QT open-ended,” they wrote in a note.
    Antoine Bouvet, senior rates strategist at ING, also described the announcement as “hawkish.”
    “The main take away from this meeting was higher than expected inflation projections and so the need for the ECB to hike more than anticipated by the market,” he said by email.
    “Lagarde clearly guided the market to anticipate more 50 basis point hikes, in February and in March, and pushed back against the notion that it will be able to cut rates any time soon. The upshot as you might expect is a surge in front-end bond yields, but I think it is the whole curve that needs to move higher.”
    “The QT announcement was more specific than I would have expected with a size and an earlier start date. This also adds to upside in bond yields, especially peripheral bonds, but it is worth keeping in mind that most European bond markets see greater net supply next year after ECB intervention so this is relevant for all countries,” he said by email.

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    US Cracks Down on Chinese Companies for Security Concerns

    The Biden administration placed severe restrictions on trade with dozens of Chinese entities, its latest step in a campaign to curtail access to technology with military applications.WASHINGTON — The Biden administration on Thursday stepped up its efforts to impede China’s development of advanced semiconductors, restricting another 36 companies and organizations from getting access to American technology.The action, announced by the Commerce Department, is the latest step in the administration’s campaign to clamp down on China’s access to technologies that could be used for military purposes and underscored how limiting the flow of technology to global rivals has become a prominent element of United States foreign policy.Administration officials say that China has increasingly blurred the lines between its military and civilian industries, prompting the United States to place restrictions on doing business with Chinese companies that may feed into Beijing’s military ambitions at a time of heightened geopolitical tensions, especially over Taiwan.In October, the administration announced sweeping limits on semiconductor exports to China, both from companies within the United States and in other countries that use American technology to make those products. It has also placed strict limits on technology exports to Russia in response to Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.“Today we are building on the actions we took in October to protect U.S. national security by severely restricting the PRC’s ability to leverage artificial intelligence, advanced computing, and other powerful, commercially available technologies for military modernization and human rights abuses,” Alan Estevez, the under secretary of commerce for industry and security, said in a statement, referring to the People’s Republic of China.Among the most notable companies added to the list is Yangtze Memory Technologies Corporation, a company that was said to be in talks with Apple to potentially supply components for the iPhone 14.Congress has been preparing legislation that would prevent the U.S. government from purchasing or using semiconductors made by Y.M.T.C. and two other Chinese chip makers, Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation and ChangXin Memory Technologies, because of their reported links to Chinese state security and intelligence organizations.The Biden PresidencyHere’s where the president stands after the midterm elections.A New Primary Calendar: President Biden’s push to reorder the early presidential nominating states is likely to reward candidates who connect with the party’s most loyal voters.A Defining Issue: The shape of Russia’s war in Ukraine, and its effects on global markets, in the months and years to come could determine Mr. Biden’s political fate.Beating the Odds: Mr. Biden had the best midterms of any president in 20 years, but he still faces the sobering reality of a Republican-controlled House for the next two years.2024 Questions: Mr. Biden feels buoyant after the better-than-expected midterms, but as he turns 80, he confronts a decision on whether to run again that has some Democrats uncomfortable.The U.S. government added the companies to a so-called entity list that will severely restrict their access to certain products, software and technologies. The targeted companies are producers and sellers of technologies that could pose a significant security risk to the United States, like advanced chips that are used to power artificial intelligence and hypersonic weapons, and components for Iranian drones and ballistic missiles, the Commerce Department said.In an emailed statement, Liu Pengyu, the spokesman for the Chinese embassy in Washington, said that the United States “has been stretching the concept of national security, abusing export control measures, engaging in discriminatory and unfair treatment against enterprises of other countries, and politicizing and weaponizing economic and sci-tech issues. This is blatant economic coercion and bullying in the field of technology.”“China will resolutely safeguard the lawful rights and interests of Chinese companies and institutions,” he added.On Monday, China filed a formal challenge to the Biden administration’s chip controls at the World Trade Organization, criticizing the restrictions as a form of “trade protectionism.”The administration said that some companies, including Y.M.T.C. and its Japanese subsidiary, were added to the list because they posed a significant risk of transferring sensitive items to other companies sanctioned by the U.S. government, including Huawei Technologies and Hikvision.The Commerce Department said that another entity, Tianjin Tiandi Weiye Technologies, was added for its role in aiding China’s campaign of repression and surveillance of Uyghurs and other Muslim minority groups in the Xinjiang region of China, as well as providing U.S. products to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps. U.S.-based firms will now be forbidden from shipping products to these companies without first obtaining a special license.Twenty-three of the entities — in particular, those supplying advanced chips used for artificial intelligence with close ties to the Chinese military and defense industry, and two Chinese companies that were found to be supporting the Russian military — were hit with even tougher restrictions.The companies will be subject to what is known as the foreign direct product rule, which will cut them off from buying products made anywhere in the world with the use of American technology or software, which would encompass most global technology companies.The administration also said it would lift restrictions on some companies that had successfully undergone U.S. government checks that ensured their products weren’t being used for purposes that the government deemed harmful to national security.As part of the restrictions unveiled in October, the Biden administration placed dozens of Chinese firms on a watch list that required them to work with the U.S. government to verify that their products were not being used for activities that would pose a security risk to the United States.A total of 25 entities completed those checks, in cooperation with the Chinese government, and thus have been removed from the list. Nine Russian parties that were unable to clear those checks were added to the entity list, the department said.A spokesperson for the Commerce Department said that the actions demonstrated that the United States would defend its national security but also stood ready to work in cooperation with companies and host governments to ensure compliance with U.S. export controls.In a separate announcement Thursday morning, a government board that oversees the audits of companies listed on stock exchanges to protect the interests of investors said that it had gained complete access for the first time in its history to inspect accounting firms headquartered in mainland China and Hong Kong.The agency, called the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board, said this was just an initial step in ensuring that Chinese companies are safe for U.S. investors. But the development marked a step toward a potential resolution of a yearslong standoff between the United States and China over financial checks into public companies. It also appeared to decrease the likelihood that major Chinese companies will be automatically delisted from U.S. exchanges in the years to come.Congress passed a law in 2020 that would have required Chinese companies to delist from U.S. stock exchanges if U.S. regulators were not able to inspect their audit reports for three consecutive years.Erica Y. Williams, the chair of the board, said the announcement should not be misconstrued as a “clean bill of health” for firms in China. Her staff had identified numerous potential deficiencies with the firms they inspected, she said, though that was not an unexpected outcome in a jurisdiction being examined for the first time.“I want to be clear: this is the beginning of our work to inspect and investigate firms in China, not the end,” Ms. Williams said. More

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    Retail Sales Fell 0.6% in November, Despite Black Friday

    Inflation changed the way U.S. shoppers approached the holiday season, while lower gas prices and a decline in car sales were also factors.Retail sales fell in November, with spending on even traditionally popular gift categories like clothing and sporting goods declining, a sign that high prices for necessities like food are affecting how people approach the holiday shopping season.U.S. retail sales fell 0.6 percent in November from October, the Department of Commerce said on Thursday. The figure does not account for price changes, and inflation did ease slightly during the month.Spending increased in some areas, including at grocery stores, health and personal care stores and restaurants and bars. But categories like motor vehicles, furniture, consumer electronics, clothing and sporting goods all declined. Gas prices also fell during the month, meaning consumers spent less money filling up their cars.“Overall, the demand patterns — not the most academic term — have been out of whack for the past few years and what we’re seeing is these disruptions coming back in these forms,” said Andrew Forman, who studies consumer behavior at Hofstra University’s Frank G. Zarb School of Business. “There are so many moving factors.”Inflation in November slowed to 7.1 percent through the year, down from 7.7 percent in October. Some analysts pointed out that lower prices affected the retail sales figure.“Less inflation is driving some of that decline from October to November, which wouldn’t be a bad thing,” David Silverman, a senior director at Fitch Ratings, said.In many ways, the report highlights how inflation, even if it has eased, has changed the way consumers are approaching the holiday season. Americans, for example, are whittling down the number of people they are giving gifts to, according to data from KPMG.Inflation F.A.Q.Card 1 of 5What is inflation? More

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    Retail sales fell 0.6% in November as consumers feel the pressure from inflation

    Retail sales for November declined 0.6%, even worse than the Dow Jones estimate for a 0.3% drop.
    Weekly jobless claims fell to 211,000, a decline of 20,000 from the previous period and well below the Dow Jones estimate for 232,000.
    Fed surveys from the New York and Philadelphia regions showed contraction in manufacturing activity in December.

    Consumers pulled back on spending in November, failing to keep up with even a muted level of inflation for the month, the Commerce Department reported Thursday.
    Retail sales for the month declined 0.6%, even worse than the Dow Jones estimate for a 0.3% drop. The number is not adjusted for inflation as gauged by the Labor Department’s consumer price index, which increased 0.1% in November, which also was below expectations.

    Measures that exclude autos and both autos and gas sales both showed 0.2% declines.
    Stocks fell sharply following a mostly disappointing round of economic data released Thursday morning. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was off nearly 500 points in early trading.
    The pullback was widespread across categories. Furniture and home furnishings stores reported a decrease of 2.6%, building materials and garden centers were off 2.5%, and motor vehicle and parts dealers dropped 2.3%.
    Even with declining gas prices, service stations sales were down just 0.1%.
    Online sales also decreased, falling 0.9%, while bars and restaurants increased 0.9%, and food and beverage stores rose 0.8%.

    On a year-over-year basis, retail sales increased 6.5%, compared with a CPI inflation rate of 7.1%.
    “With weak global growth and the strong dollar compounding the domestic drag from higher interest rates, we suspect this weakness is a sign of things to come,” Andrew Hunter, senior U.S. economist at Capital Economics, wrote of the retail report.
    In other economic news Thursday, the Labor Department said weekly jobless claims fell to 211,000, a decline of 20,000 from the previous period and well below the Dow Jones estimate for 232,000. Continuing claims, which run a week behind, nudged higher to 1.671 million.
    Also, separate surveys from regional Federal Reserve districts showed contraction in manufacturing activity in December.
    The Empire State Manufacturing Survey, which measures activity in the New York region, posted a reading of -11.2, against the estimate of -0.5.
    That represents the percentage difference between companies reporting expansion against contraction. This month’s reading represented a drop of some 16 points into contraction territory, owed in good part to a slide in the general business conditions index. Inventories in the region also fell, though price indexes were little changed.
    Similarly, the Philadelphia Fed survey rose 6 points but was still negative at -13.8, against the -12 estimate. Sharp negative readings for new orders, unfilled orders and delivery times weighed on the index. However, prices eased considerably for the region, with both the prices paid and received measures falling.
    “With exports now suffering from the strong dollar, and a global recession looming, we expect that further weakness in manufacturing lies in store,” Hunter said.

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    U.K. Inflation Rate Slows to 10.7 Percent

    The pace of price rises in November edged lower, from 11.1 percent, but households are still being squeezed as wages fail to keep up.Britain’s inflation rate eased away from a 41-year high on Wednesday, but the slowdown brings only limited relief to a nation gripped by a deep cost-of-living crisis.Consumer prices in Britain rose 10.7 percent in November from a year earlier, bringing the rate of inflation down slightly from 11.1 percent in October, which was the highest annual rate since 1981, the Office for National Statistics said.Despite this tentative sign that inflation might have peaked, British households are being squeezed by high energy bills, food costs and mortgage rates, while wage growth is failing to keep up with inflation. Britons are facing a sharpest decline in living standards over the next two years in records dating to the mid-1950s, which is prompting a growing wave of labor unrest. Railroad and postal workers are on strike on Wednesday over demands for higher pay, while nurses are set to walk off the job on Thursday.On a monthly basis, prices rose 0.4 percent in November, easing the torrid pace of October when they climbed 2 percent in a single month because of higher energy costs, despite billions spent by the government to cap household gas and electric bills.Core inflation, which excludes energy and food prices, slowed to an annual rate of 6.3 percent, from 6.5 percent in October. Economists had expected core inflation to hold steady, according to a survey by Bloomberg. A slowdown in transportation prices, particularly for fuel, as well as clothing and recreation services, all contributed to the lower overall inflation rate, while rising prices in restaurants and for groceries partially offset that. Food and drink prices climbed 16.4 percent in November from a year earlier.As a whole, Wednesday’s inflation data are “undoubtedly welcome,” Sandra Horsfield, an economist at Investec, wrote in a note. But “at 10.7 percent consumer price inflation is still running well ahead of average income growth, causing pain that households can readily attest to.”“There is still a long way to go before the all-clear on inflation can be sounded,” she added.The deceleration in the overall inflation rate will be encouraging for Bank of England policymakers who have sharply raised interest rates to try to tamp down inflation. Inflation also slowed more than expected in the United States, data released on Tuesday showed.But this isn’t enough for central bankers to declare victory, as they target a 2 percent inflation rate. Policymakers want to ward against the risk that high inflation lingers for years to come. They are alert to how much businesses pass on price increases to customers and how much wages rise in response to the higher cost of living and a tight labor market.Data published on Tuesday showed that average pay in Britain, excluding bonuses, rose an annual rate of 6.1 percent in the three months to October. Even though that’s slower than the rate of inflation, policymakers argue that this pickup in wages is still too high to be sure inflation can sustainably return to target. On Thursday, Bank of England policymakers are expected to raise interest rates for a ninth consecutive time, to 3.5 percent from 3 percent. The half-point increase is expected to match rate changes by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday and the European Central Bank on Thursday. All three central banks are expected to decelerate from previous increases in interest rates of three-quarters of a point.Policymakers are expected to slow the pace of rate increases as they assess the impact of months of tighter monetary policy in damping economic demand to squash inflationary pressures. In Britain, the central bank’s rising benchmark rate, which has climbed from 0.1 percent a year ago, has already led to a notable increase in mortgage rates, with millions of households facing sharp increases in payments next year, and house prices falling.While the inflation outlook is uncertain, the Bank of England predicts that the rate of price increases will slow sharply from the middle of next year as past jumps in energy prices drop out of the annual calculations.But the cost of high inflation won’t fall away so quickly. The British economy is likely already in a recession that the central bank predicts to last all through next year. Household finances will be under “significant pressure” from below-inflation wage gains, higher mortgage costs and an expected increase in unemployment, according to a financial stability report by the Bank of England published on Tuesday.The Joseph Rowntree Foundation, a nonprofit, said on Wednesday that more than seven million households were “going without essentials,” which meant they had reported going hungry or skipping meals or didn’t have adequate clothing, based on a survey. Just under five million households were said to be in arrears on at least one household bill.“I know it is tough for many right now, but it is vital that we take the tough decisions needed to tackle inflation — the No. 1 enemy that makes everyone poorer,” Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor of the Exchequer, said in a statement in response to the inflation data on Wednesday. “If we make the wrong choices now, high prices will persist and prolong the pain for millions.”This tough stance comes as government ministers have been embroiled in debates with unions over improving pay offers following a long history of below-inflation wages. Recently a large gulf has opened up between pay growth in the private and public sectors. Before accounting for inflation, private-sector pay rose at an annual rate of 6.9 percent in the three months to October, but just 2.7 percent for workers in the public sector, data published on Tuesday showed.Pat Cullen, the chief executive of the Royal College of Nurses, the union whose members will go on strike on Thursday and again next week, accused the government of “belligerence” as talks broke down. More

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    Federal Reserve Expected to Slow Rate Increases and Offer Hints at Future

    Central bankers are still fighting inflation, but are poised to slow to a rate increase of half a percentage point at their final meeting of 2022.Federal Reserve officials appear poised to finish the most inflationary year since the 1980s on an optimistic note: They are expected to slow their campaign to cool the economy at their meeting on Wednesday, just as incoming data offer reasons to hope that price increases will fade next year.Central bankers are expected to lift interest rates by half a percentage point to a range of 4.25 to 4.5 percent. That would be a slowdown from their past four meetings, where they raised rates in three-quarter-point increments.Officials will also release a fresh set of economic projections, their first since September, which will offer a glimpse at how high they expect rates to rise in 2023 and how long they plan to hold them there.Fed policymakers have lifted borrowing costs at the fastest pace in decades this year to slow demand in the economy, hoping to tamp down inflationary pressures and prevent rapid increases from becoming a permanent feature of the American economy. While inflation is now showing signs of slowing, it remains much faster than usual, and central bankers have made clear that they have more work to do in ensuring that it returns to normal.But policy changes take time to fully play out, and the Fed wants to avoid accidentally squeezing demand so much that the economy contracts more than is necessary to wrangle inflation. That is why officials are moving away from super-rapid price increases and into a new phase where they focus on how high interest rates will rise and, perhaps even more critically, how long they will stay elevated.Inflation F.A.Q.Card 1 of 5What is inflation? More

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    UK inflation falls from 41-year high as fuel price surge eases

    Brexit has added more than £200 to the average U.K. household food bill, according to a new study from the London School of Economics.
    Nathan Stirk | Getty Images News | Getty Images

    LONDON — U.K. inflation came in slightly below expectations at 10.7% in November, as cooling fuel prices helped ease price pressures, though high food and energy prices continued to squeeze households and businesses.
    Economists polled by Reuters had projected an annual increase in the consumer price index of 10.9% in November, after October saw an unexpected climb to a 41-year high of 11.1%. On a monthly basis, the November increase was 0.4%, down from 2% in October and below a consensus estimate of 0.6%.

    The Office for National Statistics said the largest upward contributions came from “housing and household services (principally from electricity, gas, and other fuels), and food and non-alcoholic beverages.”
    The largest downward contributions over the month came from “transport, particularly motor fuels, with rising prices in restaurants, cafes and pubs making the largest, partially offsetting, upward contribution.”
    The Bank of England will announce its next monetary policy move on Thursday. It is widely expected to raise interest rates by 50 basis points, as it juggles sky-high inflation and an economy that policymakers say is already in its longest recession on record.
    The country faces widespread industrial action over the Christmas period, as workers strike to demand pay rises closer to the rate of inflation and better working conditions.
    The independent Office for Budget Responsibility projected that the U.K. will suffer its largest fall in living standards since records began, as real household income is expected to decline by 4.3% in 2022-23.

    U.K. Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt last month announced a sweeping £55 billion ($68 billion) fiscal plan, including a slew of tax rises and spending cuts, in an attempt to plug a substantial hole in the country’s public finances.
    A positive step, but risks remain
    While the dip in Wednesday’s figures is a step in the right direction, the persistent problem of rising food prices and household energy bills remains a thorn in the side of the British economy, noted Richard Carter, head of fixed interest research at Quilter Cheviot.
    However, Carter suggested inflation may finally be passing its peak, after the U.S. also posted a better-than-expected CPI print on Tuesday.
    “Temperatures have taken a sharp dive in the last week or so, and the demand for gas will no doubt have increased as people are forced to heat their homes,” Carter added.
    “As the autumn had been rather mild, we will only now begin to see the real impact of higher energy bills. While the government support remains in place for now, any changes made once the April deadline is reached could have a knock-on effect on inflation.”
    The Bank of England faces a tricky task in trying to drag inflation back towards its 2% target while remaining cognizant of a weakening economy. This was evident in the latest U.K. labor market data earlier this week, which showed an uptick in both unemployment and wage growth.
    “While inflation is falling, it remains well ahead of wages, and we are heading into a new winter of discontent with strikes concentrated in the unionised public sector and former nationalised industries as a result,” Carter said.
    The market is pricing a 50 basis point interest rate hike from the Bank on Thursday, taking the benchmark rate to 3.5%. Policymakers have signaled a potential slowing of the pace of hikes in 2023. However, inflation remains well above target.
    “The Chancellor’s Autumn Statement in November helped to settle the waters following months of significant turbulence, but inflation remains far above the Bank’s 2% target, which means there is still a long way to go yet,” Carter said.
    “A rapid fall in inflation is highly unlikely, but it is positive to see it finally moving in the right direction.”
    This is a breaking news story, please check back later for more.

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    Inflation Cooled Notably in November, Good News for the Fed

    Inflation slowed more sharply than expected in November, an encouraging sign for both Federal Reserve officials and consumers that 18 months of rapid and unrelenting price increases are beginning to meaningfully abate.The new data is unlikely to alter the Fed’s plan to raise interest rates by another half point at the conclusion of its two-day meeting on Wednesday. But the moderation in inflation, which affected used cars, some types of food and airline tickets, caused investors to speculate that the Fed could pursue a less aggressive policy path next year — potentially increasing the chances of a “soft landing,” or one in which the economy slows gradually and without a painful recession.Stock prices jumped sharply higher after government data showed that inflation eased to 7.1 percent in the year through November, down from 7.7 percent in the previous reading and less than economists had expected.The Fed, which has been rapidly raising rates in three-quarter point increments, is expected to make a smaller move on Wednesday, bringing rates to a range between 4.25 and 4.5 percent. Central bankers will also release economic projections showing how much they expect to raise interest rates next year, and investors are now betting that they will slow to quarter-point adjustments by their February meeting as fading price pressures give them latitude to proceed more cautiously.“The overall picture is definitely improving,” said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. “It’s unambiguously good news, but it would not be fair to say that inflation is falling everywhere — there are still pockets of big increases.”While price increases are not yet slowing across the board, they are moderating for key goods and services that consumers buy every day, including gas and meat. That is good news for President Biden, who has struggled to convince Americans that the economy is strong as the surging cost of living erodes voter confidence.“Inflation is coming down in America,” Mr. Biden said during remarks at the White House on Tuesday morning. He hailed the report as “news that provides some optimism for the holiday season, and I would argue, the year ahead.”Inflation F.A.Q.Card 1 of 5What is inflation? More