Evelyn Reynolds

Eggs are displayed at a grocery store on September 25, 2024 in Greenbrae, California. 
Justin Sullivan | Getty Images

The pace of price increases over the past year took was higher than forecast in September while jobless claims posted an unexpected jump, the Labor Department reported Thursday.
The consumer price index, a broad gauge measuring the costs of goods and services across the U.S. economy, increased a seasonally adjusted 0.2% for the month, putting the annual inflation rate at 2.4%. Both readings were 0.1 percentage point above the Dow Jones consensus.

The annual inflation rate was 0.1 percentage point lower than August and is the lowest since February 2021.
Excluding food and energy, core prices increased 0.3% on the month, putting the annual rate at 3.3%. Both core readings also were 0.1 percentage point above forecast.

Much of the inflation increase — more than three-quarter of the move higher — came from a 0.4% jump in food prices and a 0.2% gain in shelter costs, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said in the release. That offset a 1.9% fall in energy prices.
Other items contributing to the gain included a 0.3% increase in used vehicle costs and a 0.2% rise in new vehicles. Medical care services were up 0.7% and apparel prices surged 1.1%.
Stock market futures moved lower following the report while Treasury yields were mixed.

The release comes as the Federal Reserve has begun to lower benchmark interest rates. After a half percentage point reduction in September, the central bank is expected to continue cutting, though the pace and degree remain in question.

Fed officials have become more confident that inflation is easing back towards their 2% goal while expressing some concern over the state of the labor market.
While the CPI is not the Fed’s official inflation barometer, it is part of the dashboard central bank policymakers use when making decisions. Though the inflation reading was higher than expected, traders in futures markets increased their bets that the Fed would lower rates by another quarter percentage point at their Nov. 6-7 policy meeting, to about 86%, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch gauge.
In recent days, policymakers have said they see rising risks in the labor market, and another data point Thursday helped buttress that point.
Initial filings for unemployment benefits took an unexpected turn higher, hitting 258,000 for the week ending Oct. 5. That was the highest total since Aug. 5, 2023, a gain of 33,000 from the previous week and well above the forecast for 230,000.
Continuing claims, which run a week behind, rose to 1.861 million, an increase of 42,000.
On the inflation side, rising prices across a variety of food categories showed that inflation is proving sticky.
Egg prices leaped 8.4% higher, putting the 12-month unadjusted gain at 39.6%. Butter was up 2.8% on the month and 7.8% from a year ago.
However, shelter costs, which have held higher than Fed officials anticipated this year, were up 4.9% year-over-year, a step down that could indicate an easing of broader price pressures ahead. The category makes up more than one-third of the total weighting in calculating the CPI. More

Hurricane Milton’s once-in-a-century potential could cause damage of more than $50 billion, with the potential to leave behind devastation approaching $175 billion or more in a worst-case scenario.
“A 1-in-100 year event is estimated by some to result in $175 [billion] in losses for landfall in the Tampa region, and $70 [billion] in losses in the [Fort] Myers region,” Jefferies analysts said.

Heavy traffic begins to back up on Interstate 275 South as residents evacuate St. Petersburg, Florida, ahead of Hurricane Milton, U.S., October 7, 2024. 
Octavio Jones | Reuters

Hurricane Milton’s once-in-a-century potential could cause damage of more than $50 billion, with the potential to leave behind devastation approaching $175 billion or more in a worst-case scenario, according to leading Wall Street analysts.
That would be on top of the carnage already left behind by Hurricane Helene, posing a potential record-breaking path of wreckage.

“While too early to make insured loss estimates, a major hurricane impact in one of Florida’s most heavily populated regions could result in mid-double-digit billion dollar loss,” Jefferies equity analyst Yaron Kinar and others said in a note. “A 1-in-100 year event is estimated by some to result in $175 [billion] in losses for landfall in the Tampa region, and $70 [billion] in losses in the [Fort] Myers region.”
The extent of the potential is hard to pin down and will depend on timing and location, with a landfall closer to Fort Myers being less costly.
For a historical comparison, analysts need only to look back two years, when Hurricane Ian hit near the Fort Myers area as a Category 4 storm and left behind more than $50 billion in losses. Ian was considered a 1-in-20-year event.

“Should Milton’s path through the more developed Tampa region hold, potential losses could be greater,” Kinar said.
Milton is currently at Category 4 as well, though it could weaken by the time its full force is felt.

Wells Fargo noted that the “market seems to be factoring in a loss of over $50 billion (greater than Ian) at this point.” The firm set a wide range for potential damage, from $10 billion to $100 billion.
The region already has been rocked — Helene barreled through the region 12 days ago, and left behind devastation that Moody’s on Tuesday estimated at some $11 billion. In addition to the property damage, Moody’s figures that the National Flood Insurance Program likely will see losses approaching $2 billion.
The firm’s analysts have not yet estimated potential damage from Milton.

Kiki Keen and his father Clinton Keen walk among the debris of their family’s beach house, following Hurricane Helene in Horseshoe Beach, Florida, U.S., September 28, 2024. 
Marco Bello | Reuters

“Hurricane Helene is by far the most impactful event of the current 2024 hurricane season thus far, though this may quickly change with Major Hurricane Milton due to impact Florida in the coming days,” said Mohsen Rahnama, chief risk modeling officer at Moody’s.
Moody’s also noted that many in the worst-affected regions of where Helene hit do not have flood insurance, “meaning most of the damage will be uninsured, and economic property losses will far outweigh insured losses,” said Firas Saleh, the firm’s director of U.S. inland flood models.
Milton weakened a bit Tuesday but was still carrying winds of 145 mph. It is expected to hit Tampa on Wednesday morning and bring 10- to 15-foot storm surges to Tampa Bay.
While the danger and damage to the region are expected to be enormous, the storm does not pose the same danger to adjoining states that Helene pummeled.

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