Evelyn Reynolds

More stories

  • 100 Shares99 Views

    in Economy

    Chinese Solar Makers Evaded U.S. Tariffs, Investigation Finds

    The Biden administration pre-emptively halted any penalties from the case in June, prompting critics to say the administration had shortcut its own trade rulesWASHINGTON — U.S. officials have determined that four of eight major Chinese solar companies under investigation in recent months tried to evade tariffs by funneling products into the United States through Southeast Asian countries, in a trade case that has pitted clean energy advocates against domestic solar panel manufacturers.The decision applies to the Thailand operations of Canadian Solar and Trina Solar, as well as BYD Cambodia and Vina Solar Vietnam, according to documents published by the Department of Commerce Friday morning.The ruling centered around esoteric trade laws that aim to protect American manufacturers from unfairly cheap foreign products. But more broadly, the case is related to an increasingly difficult question confronting U.S. policymakers: how quickly the United States can expect to wean itself off China’s supply of materials that are crucial for the American economy, including the solar panels that are needed for a transition to green energy.The investigation, initiated at the request of a small California-based company named Auxin Solar, centered on whether Chinese companies have been trying to bypass tariffs that the United States imposed on cheap solar panels imported from China. In recent years, Chinese solar companies have significantly expanded their manufacturing presence in Southeast Asian countries that do not face the same tariffs.The trade case rests on whether the Chinese companies are actually using these Southeast Asian countries as a significant site of manufacturing, or if they are just making minor changes to products that are largely made in China to try to get around U.S. trade rules.Other companies that were also under investigation — namely New East Solar Cambodia, Hanwha Q CELLS Malaysia, Jinko Solar Malaysia and the Vietnam operations of Boviet Solar — were found not to be violating U.S. trade rules.Typically, companies that are found to be circumventing U.S. tariffs would immediately be subject to higher duty rates to bring their products into the United States. But in an unusual measure, the Biden administration in June pre-empted those higher duties by announcing a two-year pause on any tariff increases on solar products.The administration said its decision to halt additional tariffs would help ensure that the United States has enough solar panels as it tries to reduce its reliance on fossil fuels in the months to come. The Biden administration has set an ambitious goal of generating 100 percent of the nation’s electricity from carbon-free energy sources by 2035, a goal that may require more than doubling the annual pace of solar installations.But domestic manufacturing groups have criticized the president’s decision to halt any imposition of tariffs, saying he is failing to enforce America’s trade rules and crack down on unfair Chinese practices.Solar importers, too, have expressed dissatisfaction with the decision, saying that the two-year pause is not enough time to establish sufficient manufacturing capacity outside China to meet rising U.S. demand.Enormous planned investments in solar energy have raised the stakes of the debate. The Inflation Reduction Act, a sweeping new climate law signed by President Biden in August, provides roughly $37 billion in incentives for companies to produce solar panels, wind turbines, batteries and other crucial minerals in the United States, aiming to reverse the longstanding migration of clean energy manufacturing to China and elsewhere.The clash is the latest chapter in a decade-long conflict between the United States and China over the solar industry. In 2012, the United States began imposing duties on Chinese solar panels, arguing that Chinese manufacturers were unfairly selling their products in the United States at prices below the cost of production. Chinese solar manufacturers shifted their operations to Taiwan instead, but the United States soon expanded its tariffs to apply to Taiwan, as well.In recent years, Chinese companies have set up new manufacturing operations in Southeast Asia, and exports of solar products to the United States from Vietnam, Malaysia, Thailand and Cambodia have exploded. In many cases, these factories appear to rely on raw materials sourced largely from China, like polysilicon.That business model has proved problematic in more ways than one. The U.S. government has found that major Chinese producers of polysilicon and solar products are guilty of using forced labor in the Xinjiang region of China and has banned any products using that polysilicon from the United States.Auxin Solar and other domestic manufacturers have also said that the boom in business in Southeast Asia was an attempt by Chinese companies to evade the duties that the United States had imposed on Chinese products.In a preliminary decision on the case on Friday, officials at the Commerce Department agreed, at least for some cases. The Commerce Department will now require solar companies exporting to the United States from Thailand, Malaysia, Vietnam and Cambodia to certify that a significant proportion of their materials are coming from outside China. Otherwise, companies in those countries will be subject to the same duties paid by their Chinese suppliers starting in 2024. The Commerce Department will continue to review the case and issue its final decision on the matter on May 1, 2023.Mamun Rashid, the chief executive of Auxin Solar, said in a statement that the findings “largely validated and confirmed Auxin’s allegations of Chinese cheating.”“We will continue to press forward in these cases as they continue to make sure all trade cheats are playing by the rules,” he said.Abigail Ross Hopper, the chief executive of the Solar Energy Industries Association, which opposed the investigation, said the group was “obviously disappointed that commerce elected to exceed its legal authority” by ruling against the imports from Southeast Asia.“This decision will strand billions of dollars’ worth of American clean energy investments and result in the significant loss of good-paying, American, clean energy jobs,” she said, adding, “This is a mistake we will have to deal with for the next several years.”Major solar importers have complained for months of difficulties obtaining enough solar panels to meet growing demand for clean energy solutions. George Hershman, the chief executive of SOLV Energy, a large solar contracting firm that has provided engineering, construction and maintenance services for projects across 26 states, said the decision was likely to disrupt an industry that has already been reeling from supply chain constraints in recent years.“The upside is that commerce took a nuanced approach to exempt a number of manufacturers rather than issuing a blanket ban of all products from the targeted countries,” Mr. Hershman said. “While it’s positive that companies will be able to access some of the crucial materials we need to deploy clean energy, it’s still true that this ruling will further constrict a challenged supply chain.”Some members of the Biden administration are sympathetic to these arguments. In a hearing in May before the Senate Energy Committee, Jennifer M. Granholm, the secretary of energy, said the investigation put at stake “the complete smothering of the investment and the jobs and the independence that we would be seeking as a nation to get our fuel from our own generation sources.”The investigation was under the purview of the Department of Commerce, not the Department of Energy, she said. “But I am certainly deeply concerned about the goal of getting to 100 percent clean electricity by 2035 if this is not resolved quickly.”But the Biden administration’s decision to effectively neutralize the trade investigation by halting any additional tariffs that would result from it until June 2024 has also attracted its share of criticism.Along with the small group of solar manufacturers who do not have ties to China, groups that lobby in favor of domestic manufacturing have protested the Biden administration’s taking action in a type of trade decision that is typically independent and quasi-judicial.“This is illegal activity that is directly harming our companies. That’s why we have trade laws,” said Nick Iacovella, the communications director for the Coalition for a Prosperous America, which called Friday for the Biden administration to rescind its emergency declaration halting the tariffs. “There’s absolutely no reason we should allow the Chinese to continue illegal activity for two years.”In a letter to the Biden administration in July, Democratic lawmakers, including Daniel T. Kildee of Michigan, also criticized the decision to pause the tariffs, saying it would undercut “existing and planned domestic solar manufacturing investments, hurting American workers and companies.”Trade remedy laws are one of the only tools available to defend American manufacturers and “should not be undermined,” they wrote.But other lawmakers called on Friday for an extension of the two-year pause on tariffs. Eight Democratic senators, led by Jacky Rosen from Nevada, said solar projects needed access to more basic components to operate.The debate is taking on increasing urgency now that the United States is preparing to make huge investments in its clean energy industry, through bills such as the Inflation Reduction Act.Analysts say it will still take time for the United States to be independent of foreign solar imports. In 2021, the United States had the capacity to manufacture roughly 7.5 gigawatts’ worth of solar modules a year, according to industry figures.In the wake of the passage of the new climate law, several companies have announced plans to increase that capacity by another 20 gigawatts a year over the coming decade, according to ClearView Energy Partners, a Washington research firm.But solar companies are expected to install far more than that — nearly 40 gigawatts worth of solar capacity in 2023, according to government forecasts — spurred on by other tax breaks for solar power in the new climate law. And the country still lacks the capacity to produce solar cells and wafers, key components that are primarily produced overseas.“Therefore, domestic solar panel manufacturers appear likely to rely heavily on an overseas supply chain after” any tariffs are potentially put in place by the end of 2024 as a result of the Commerce Department’s decision, the analysts at ClearView concluded. More

  • 163 Shares139 Views

    in Economy

    November unemployment fell for Hispanic workers and Black women, while holding steady overall

    The U.S. unemployment rate held steady at 3.7% in November.
    The U.S. added 263,000 jobs last month, according to the Labor Department. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones were expecting 200,000 jobs.
    Hispanic workers saw the unemployment rate dipped to 3.9% last month, down from 4.2% in October.

    A Now Hiring sign at a Dunkin’ restaurant on September 21, 2021 in Hallandale, Florida.
    Joe Raedle | Getty Images

    The unemployment rate in the U.S. declined for Hispanic workers and Black women in November, while the overall rate held steady.
    Hispanic workers saw unemployment dip to 3.9% last month, down from 4.2% in October, according to the Labor Department on Friday. Unemployment among Hispanic males dropped to 3.5%, from 3.8%, and among women fell to 3.6% from 3.7%. Hispanic youth unemployment (16-19) improved to 11.2% from 12.3%.

    Black unemployment dropped to 5.7%, down from 5.9%. It fell more for Black women to 5.2%, from 5.8%. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate among Black men ticked higher to 5.4%, from 5.3%. Black youth unemployment worsened, to 16.8% from 16.5%.
    More broadly, the U.S. unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.7% in November, the same level as October, and in line with expectations.

    Still, the U.S. reported strong jobs growth in November, signaling the Federal Reserve may have further to go in its efforts to cool the labor market. Overall, the U.S. added 263,000 jobs last month. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones were expecting 200,000 new jobs.
    “What this report really means is that the Federal Reserve is going to continue along an aggressive track to try to bring the unemployment rate number frankly, up more,” said Michelle Holder, a distinguished senior fellow at Washington Center for Equitable Growth.
    “And so, that in the end is not necessarily good for black and Latinx workers, because we know during recessionary periods, these are the workers that are normally the most disaffected.”

    Notable jobs gains last month in the leisure and hospitality sector drove the decline in the unemployment rate among Hispanic workers, Holder said. Hispanic workers are overrepresented in the sector, which added 88,000 jobs in November.
    Meanwhile, strong job gains in health care and government spurred the decline in the unemployment rate among Black women.
    To be sure, the lower unemployment rates for both groups are down in part as more Hispanic workers and Black women exit the labor force, a trend that has been exacerbated by the pandemic, according to Holder.
    Hispanic workers saw their labor force participation rate fall to 65.7%, down from 66.1%. The rate for Black women dipped to 61.8%, down from 62.2% in October.

    Meanwhile, the strong headline numbers in the November jobs report masks some weakness in the household survey data, according to Elise Gould, a senior economist at the Economic Policy Institute.
    Overall, data showing the number of people employed in the U.S., the employment-population ratio, and participation rates have all ticked lower for at least three straight months.
    If what’s happening in the household survey is a better measure, “then it’s actually showing far more economic distress,” Gould said. “And so that means that people are actually losing their jobs and they’re hurting right now.”

    WATCH LIVEWATCH IN THE APP More

  • 150 Shares179 Views

    in Economy

    Here’s where the jobs are for November 2022 — in one chart

    The U.S. job market beat expectations again in November, adding 263,000 payrolls led by the service sector.
    Leisure and hospitality was the top category for job gains, according to a report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, adding 88,000 jobs. Roughly 62,000 of those jobs were in food and drink services, the report said.

    related investing news

    November’s strong jobs report pressures the Fed and could put December rally at risk

    4 hours ago

    Health care and social assistance was the second-biggest category last month, adding more than 68,000 jobs. When those groups are combined in a broader category with education, as some economists do, the gains rise to 82,000.
    Betsey Stevenson, a University of Michigan professor and former chief economist of the U.S. Labor Department, said on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” that the strength of those sectors show how the economy is still reacting to the impact of the Covid pandemic.
    “If you look at where the job growth was in this report, 170,000 of those jobs were in two sectors, sectors where we need people: education and health services, which has barely recovered back to its pre-pandemic level, and leisure and hospitality, which has not recovered back to anywhere near its pre-pandemic level of employment,” Stevenson said.
    Government employment also had a strong month, adding 42,000 jobs.
    Despite the headline beat and strength in the service sector, there were still weak spots in the economy. The retail trade and transportation and warehousing categories both lost jobs last month.

    Those declines come as retail and e-commerce companies have struggled with inventory management and the shift in consumer spending after an online shopping boom during the pandemic.
    “So we’ve got some sectors that are still in recovery, and other sectors I think that got ahead of their skis,” Stevenson said.

    WATCH LIVEWATCH IN THE APP More

  • 113 Shares99 Views

    in Economy

    Why Are Middle-Aged Men Missing From the Labor Market?

    Men ages 35 to 44 are staging a lackluster rebound from pandemic job loss, despite a strong economy.For the past five months Paul Rizzo, 38, has been delivering food and groceries through the DoorDash app. But he spent the first half of 2022 earning no paycheck at all — reflecting a surprising trend among middle-aged men.After learning last Christmas that his job as an analyst at a hospital company was being automated, Mr. Rizzo chose to stay at home to care for his two young sons. His wife wanted to go back to work, and he was discouraged in his own career after more than a decade of corporate tumult and repeated disappointment. He thought he might be able to earn enough income on his investments to pull it off financially.Mr. Rizzo’s decision to step away from employment during his prime working years hints at one of the biggest surprises in today’s job market: Hundreds of thousands of men in their late 30s and early 40s stopped working during the pandemic and have lingered on the labor market’s sidelines since. While Mr. Rizzo has recently returned to earning money, many men his age seem to be staying out of the work force altogether. They are an anomaly, as employment rates have rebounded more fully for women of the same age and for both younger and older men.About 87 percent of men ages 35 to 44 were working as of October, down from 88.3 percent before the pandemic struck in 2020. The stubborn decline has spanned racial groups, but it has been most heavily concentrated among men who — like Mr. Rizzo — do not have a four-year college degree. The pullback comes despite the fact that wages are rising and job openings are plentiful, including in fields like truck driving and construction, where college degrees are not required and men tend to dominate.Economists have not determined any single factor that is keeping men from returning to work. Instead, they attribute the trend to a cocktail of changing social norms around parenthood and marriage, shifting opportunities, and lingering scars of the 2008 to 2009 downturn — which cost many people in that age group jobs just as they were starting their careers.“Now, all of a sudden, you’re kind of getting your life together, and if you’re in the wrong industry …” Mr. Rizzo said, trailing off as he discussed his recent labor market experience. “I wasn’t the only one who dropped out. I can tell you that.”How male employment shifted during the pandemicMen ages 35-44 are working at a notably lower rate than before the pandemic.

    .dw-chart-subhed {
    line-height: 1;
    margin-bottom: 6px;
    font-family: nyt-franklin;
    color: #121212;
    font-size: 15px;
    font-weight: 700;
    }

    Change in male employment rate since Feb. 2020 by age group
    Note: Three-month rolling average of seasonally adjusted dataSource: Bureau of Labor StatisticsBy The New York TimesHow female employment shifted during the pandemicWomen’s employment has rebounded across age groups.

    .dw-chart-subhed {
    line-height: 1;
    margin-bottom: 6px;
    font-family: nyt-franklin;
    color: #121212;
    font-size: 15px;
    font-weight: 700;
    }

    Change in female employment rate since Feb. 2020 by age group
    Note: Three-month rolling average of seasonally adjusted dataSource: Bureau of Labor StatisticsBy The New York TimesMen have been withdrawing from the labor force for decades. In the years following World War II, more than 97 percent of men in their prime working years — defined by economists as ages 25 to 54 — were working or actively looking for work, according to federal data. But starting in the 1960s, that share began to fall, mirroring the decline in domestic manufacturing jobs.What is new is that a small demographic slice — men who were early in their careers during the 2008 recession — seems to be most heavily affected.“I think there’s a lot of very discouraged people out there,” said Jane Oates, a former Labor Department official who now heads WorkingNation, a nonprofit focused on work force development. Men lost jobs in astonishing numbers during the 2008 financial crisis as the construction and home-building industries contracted. It took years to regain that ground — for men who were then in their 20s and early 30s and just getting started in their careers, employment rates never fully recovered. Economists came up with a range of explanations for the men’s slow return to the labor force. After the war on crime of the 1980s and 1990s, more men had criminal records that made it difficult to land jobs. The rise of opioid addiction had sidelined others. Video games had improved in quality, so staying home might have become more attractive. And the decline of nuclear family units may have diminished the traditional male role as economic provider.Now, recent history appears to be repeating itself — but for one specific age group. The question is why 35- to 44-year-old men seem to be staying out of work more than other demographics.Patricia Blumenauer, vice president of data and operations at Philadelphia Works, a work force development agency, said she had observed a dip in the number of men in that age range coming in for services. A disproportionately high share of those who do come in leave without taking a job.Ms. Blumenauer said that age range is a group “that we’re not seeing show up.” She thinks some men who lost their blue-collar jobs early in the pandemic may be looking for something with flexibility and higher pay. “The ability to work from home three days a week, or have a four-day weekend — things that other jobs have figured out — aren’t possible for those types of occupations.”When men don’t find those flexible jobs or can’t compete for them, they might choose to make ends meet by staying with relatives or doing under-the-table work, Ms. Blumenauer said.The pandemic has probably also slowed America’s already-weak family formation, giving single or childless men less of an incentive to settle into steady jobs, said the economist Ariel Binder. On the flip side, disruptions to schooling and child care meant that some men who already had families may have stopped doing paid work to take on more household tasks.“So on the one hand you get these men who are just not expecting to have a stable romantic relationship for most of their lives and are setting their time use accordingly,” Dr. Binder said. “Then there are men who are participating in these family structures, but doing so in nontraditional ways.”Like labor force experts, government data suggest that a combination of forces are at play.A growing number of men do seem to be taking on more child care duties, time use and other survey data suggests. But a shift toward being stay-at-home dads is unlikely to be the full story: Employment trends look the same for men in the age group who report having young kids living with them and those who don’t.What clearly does matter is education. The employment decline is more heavily concentrated among people who have not graduated from college and who live in metropolitan areas or suburbs, based on detailed government survey data.An education gap among menMen without a four-year college degree have returned to work more slowly than others in the same age group.

    .dw-chart-subhed {
    line-height: 1;
    margin-bottom: 6px;
    font-family: nyt-franklin;
    color: #121212;
    font-size: 15px;
    font-weight: 700;
    }

    Change in employment rate for people ages 35-44
    Note: Three-month rolling average of seasonally adjusted data.Source: Current Population Survey via IPUMSBy The New York TimesSome economists speculate that the disproportionate decline could be because the age group has been buffeted by repeated crises, making their labor market footing fragile. They lost work early in their careers in 2008, faced a slow recovery after and found their jobs at risk again amid 2020 layoffs and an ongoing shift toward automation.“This group has been hit by automation, by globalization,” said David Dorn, a Swiss economist who studies labor markets.That fragility theory makes sense to Mr. Rizzo.He had seen the Navy as his ticket out of poverty in Louisiana and had expected to have a career in the service until he broke his back during basic training. He retired from the military after a few years. Then he pivoted, earning a two-year degree in Georgia and beginning a bachelor’s degree at Arizona State University — with dreams of one day working to cure cancer.Then the Great Recession hit. Mr. Rizzo had been working nights in a laboratory to afford rent and tuition, but the job ended abruptly in 2009. Phoenix was ground zero for the financial implosion’s fallout.Frantic job applications yielded nothing, and Mr. Rizzo had to drop out of school. Worse, he found himself staring down imminent homelessness. His tax refund saved him by allowing him and his wife to move back to Louisiana, where jobs were more plentiful. But after they divorced, he hit a low point.“I had nothing to show for my life after my 20s,” he explained.Mr. Rizzo spent the next decade rebuilding. He worked his way through various corporate positions where he taught himself skills in Excel and Microsoft SharePoint, married again, had two sons and bought a house.Yet he was regularly at risk of losing work to downsizing or technology — including late last year. The company he worked for wanted him to move into a new role, perhaps as a traveling salesperson, when his desk job disappeared. But his sons have special needs and that was not an option.He quit in January. He watched the kids, posted on his investment-related YouTube channel and watched Netflix. He thought he might be able to live on military payments and dividend income, becoming part of the “Financial Independence, Retire Early,” or FIRE, trend. But then the Federal Reserve raised interest rates and markets gyrated.“I got FIRE, all right,” he said. “My whole portfolio got set on fire.”Mr. Rizzo, who began working for DoorDash in July, making a delivery in Kenner.Emily Kask for The New York TimesMr. Rizzo turned to DoorDash, earning his first paycheck on July 4. While he is technically back in the labor market, gig work like his isn’t well measured in jobs data. If many men are taking a similar path but do not work every week, they might be overlooked in surveys, which ask if someone worked for pay in the previous week to determine whether they were employed.Mr. Rizzo is waiting to see what happens to his DoorDash income in an economic pullback before he rules out corporate work forever. Already, other dashers are complaining that business is slowing as people have spent down pandemic savings.The veteran counts himself fortunate. He knows men in his generation who have struggled to find any footing in the labor market.“It feels like it’s the after-affects of 2008 and 2009,” he said. “Everyone had to restart their lives from scratch.” More

  • 125 Shares189 Views

    in Economy

    Economist Austan Goolsbee Is Named to Lead the Chicago Fed

    A longtime University of Chicago economist who served in the Obama White House will be president of one of the Fed’s 12 regional districts.The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago said on Thursday that Austan D. Goolsbee will become its next president, taking a seat at the central bank’s policy-setting table as officials work to bring down the fastest inflation in decades.Mr. Goolsbee, who was a member and later chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers during the Obama administration between 2009 and 2011, has long been a faculty member at the University of Chicago’s Booth School of Business. He has a doctorate in economics from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and studied for his undergraduate degree at Yale.He will replace Charles Evans, who has been in the role since 2007 and at the Chicago Fed since 1991 and is retiring.The Chicago Fed district is made up of Iowa and most of Illinois, Indiana, Michigan and Wisconsin. The Fed’s 12 presidents oversee large staffs of researchers and bank supervisors and vote on monetary policy on a rotating basis.Mr. Goolsbee will vote on policy in 2023, meaning that he will be an important voice at the table as the Fed continues its effort to wrangle rapid inflation and tries to decide just how aggressive a policy response that will require. He is expected to start on Jan. 9.“These have been challenging, unprecedented times for the economy,” Mr. Goolsbee said in the statement from the Chicago Fed announcing the decision. “The bank has an important role to play.”Mr. Goolsbee warned in an opinion column last year that using past economic experiences to understand pandemic-era inflation and labor market changes would be a mistake.“Past business cycles look nothing like what the United States has gone through in the pandemic,” he wrote. “The most interesting questions aren’t really about recession and recovery. They center on whether any of the pandemic changes will last.”He also participates in surveys of economic experts carried out by the Chicago Booth Initiative on Global Markets, which offers a snapshot of some of his thoughts on relevant topics including inflation and the growing divide between the rich and the poor. Early this year, he noted that corporate profit margins have increased — a sign that companies are increasing prices by more than their costs are climbing — but said that they had not shot up enough to explain inflation. In response to a question about whether price controls could be used to contain prices, he wrote: “Just stop. Seriously.”In another Booth poll, asked if “the increasing share of income and wealth among the richest Americans is a major threat to capitalism,” he responded: “Duh.”While many economists responded to Mr. Goolsbee’s appointment positively, there was some backlash. Senator Bob Menendez, a Democrat from New Jersey, has been pushing the Fed to appoint Latino leaders. He said the selection process — which is run by the local business and nonprofit leaders who sit on a regional bank’s board — is antiquated and opaque.The result risks “perpetuating a legacy that has shut out Latinos from the upper echelons of leadership at the Fed,” Mr. Menendez said in a statement. More

  • 175 Shares189 Views

    in Economy

    Key inflation measure that the Fed follows rose 0.2% in October, less than expected

    The core personal consumption expenditures price index rose 0.2% in October, slightly below the estimate. The index increased 5% year over year.
    Personal income jumped 0.7% for the month, well ahead of the 0.4% estimate, and spending rose 0.8%, as expected.
    Weekly jobless claims totaled 225,000, a decline of 16,000 from the previous week and below the 235,000 estimate.
    Outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported that planned layoffs increased 127% on a monthly basis in November and were up 417% from a year ago.

    Inflation rose in October about in line with estimates, sending a sign that price increases at least might be stabilizing, the Commerce Department reported Thursday.
    The core personal consumption expenditures price index, a gauge that excludes food and energy and is favored by the Federal Reserve, rose 0.2% for the month and was up 5% from a year ago. The monthly increase was below the 0.3% Dow Jones estimate, while the annual gain was in line.

    The gains also represent a deceleration from September, which saw a monthly increase of 0.5% and an annual gain of 5.2%.
    Including food and energy, headline PCE was up 0.3% on the month and 6% on an annual basis. The monthly increase was the same as September, while the annual gain was a step down from the 6.3% pace.
    The department also reported that personal income jumped 0.7% for the month, well ahead of the 0.4% estimate, and spending rose 0.8%, as expected.
    In another key report, a widely followed gauge of manufacturing activity posted its lowest reading in two and a half years for November.
    The ISM Manufacturing Index registered a reading of 49%, representing the level of businesses reporting expansion for the period. The reading was 1.2 percentage points below October and the lowest since May 2020, in the early days of the Covid pandemic.

    Declines in order backlogs and imports were the biggest drags on the index. The closely watched prices index was off 3.6 points to 43%, indicating inflation is abating, while the employment index also receded, down 1.6 points to 48.4% an contraction territory.
    Markets were mostly lower following the morning’s data, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down more than 250 points in early trading while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite posted smaller losses.
    “This morning’s data was a goldilocks report as it showed core inflation continuing to drop,” said Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer for Independent Advisor Alliance. “If inflation keeps coming down, then markets will keep running higher, as investors will conclude that the Fed won’t need to raise rates as high, or keep them high for as long, as previously expected.”
    While the Fed takes in a broad range of measures to gauge inflation, it prefers the PCE index as it takes into account changes in consumer behavior such as substituting less expensive goods for pricier items. That’s different than the consumer price index, which is a raw measure of changes in prices.
    Policymakers view core inflation as a more reliable measure as food and energy prices tend to fluctuate more than other items.
    In other economic news Thursday, the Labor Department reported that weekly jobless claims totaled 225,000, a decline of 16,000 from the previous week and below the 235,000 estimate.
    Another jobs report from outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas indicated that planned layoffs increased 127% on a monthly basis in November and were up 417% from a year ago. Even with the massive surge, the firm noted the year-to-date layoff total is the second-lowest ever in a data set that dates to 1993.
    The data comes at a pivotal time for the Fed, which is in the midst of an interest rate-hiking campaign in an effort to bring down inflation.
    In a speech Wednesday, Chairman Jerome Powell said he saw some signs that price increases are abating but added that he needs to see more consistent evidence before the central bank can change gears on policy. He did, however, indicate that he thinks the rate hikes can start getting smaller, perhaps as early as December.
    “The truth is that the path ahead for inflation remains highly uncertain,” Powell said.
    The PCE data showed that the numbers remain volatile. Goods inflation rose 0.3% for the month after declining the previous three months, while services inflation increased 0.4%, down from two consecutive 0.6% increases. Economists have been looking for a shift back to a more services-based economy after outsized demand for goods played a major role in the inflation surge in 2021.
    Food inflation increased 0.4% while energy goods and services prices rose 2.5%.
    The Fed is watching the jobs market closely for more signs of cooling inflation.
    Jobless claims had been trending slightly higher, and the level of continuing claims increased 57,000 to 1.61 million, the highest level since February.

    WATCH LIVEWATCH IN THE APP More

  • 113 Shares189 Views

    in Economy

    Despite Inflation, Consumers Kept Up Their Spending in October

    Consumption climbed and personal income rose, even after accounting for inflation, new data from the Commerce Department showed.Americans continued spending in October, with personal consumption expenditures picking up even after adjusting for inflation, new data released Thursday showed.Consumption climbed 0.8 percent in October compared with the prior month, up from a previous gain of 0.6 percent. Adjusted for inflation, spending climbed by 0.5 percent.While economists expected those gains, they underscore that consumers remain resilient in the face of rapid price increases and rising interest rates. The Federal Reserve has lifted borrowing costs at the most aggressive pace since the 1980s this year, making it more expensive to borrow on a credit card or to buy a car.Despite that, Americans continue to open their wallets. More recent anecdotal data suggest that the holiday shopping season is off to a strong start: Retail sales over the Thanksgiving weekend were up 10.9 percent from the prior year, excluding cars and not adjusting for inflation, based on Mastercard data.But people are also becoming more price sensitive as their savings run down and expensive food and gas weigh on family budgets, and stores have begun to discount products again to lure and retain customers. That could help to lower inflation, if it is drastic enough and continues.Americans are being buoyed in part by a strong labor market that is helping them to take home more money, and by one-time payments from states, some of which have stimulus money left to disperse or are benefiting from strong tax receipts.Personal income rose by 0.7 percent in October, and 0.4 percent after adjusting for inflation, Thursday’s data showed. That was the biggest inflation-adjusted increase since July.Personal income includes government social benefits, which helped to boost it this month, “primarily reflecting one-time refundable tax credits issued by states,” the Bureau of Economic Analysis said in its release. More

  • 100 Shares119 Views

    in Economy

    California Panel Sizes Up Reparations for Black Citizens

    In the two years since nationwide social justice protests followed the murder of George Floyd, California has undertaken the nation’s most sweeping effort yet to explore some concrete restitution to Black citizens to address the enduring economic effects of slavery and racism.A nine-member Reparations Task Force has spent months traveling across California to learn about the generational effects of racist policies and actions. The group, formed by legislation signed by Gov. Gavin Newsom in 2020, is scheduled to release a report to lawmakers in Sacramento next year outlining recommendations for state-level reparations.“We are looking at reparations on a scale that is the largest since Reconstruction,” said Jovan Scott Lewis, a professor at the University of California, Berkeley, who is a member of the task force.While the creation of the task force is a bold first step, much remains unclear about whether lawmakers will ultimately throw their political weight behind reparations proposals that will require vast financial resources from the state.“That is why we must put forward a robust plan, with plenty of options,” Dr. Lewis said.The effort parallels others on a local level, in California and elsewhere, to address the nation’s stark racial disparities and a persistent wealth gap. The median wealth of Black households in the United States is $24,100, compared with $188,200 for white households, according to the most recent Federal Reserve Board Survey of Consumer Finances.In a preliminary report this year, the task force outlined how enslaved Black people were forced to California during the Gold Rush era and how, in the 1950s and 1960s, racially restrictive covenants and redlining segregated Black Californians in many of the state’s largest cities.Californians eligible for reparations, the task force decided in March, would be descendants of enslaved African Americans or of a “free Black person living in the United States prior to the end of the 19th century.” Nearly 6.5 percent of California residents, roughly 2.5 million, identify as Black or African American. The panel is now considering how reparations should be distributed — some favor tuition and housing grants while others want direct cash payments.The task force has identified five areas — housing discrimination, mass incarceration, unjust property seizures, devaluation of Black businesses and health care — in discussions for compensation. For example, from 1933 to 1977, when it comes to housing discrimination, the task force estimates compensation of around $569 billion, with $223,200 per person.Final figures will be released in the report next year; it would then be up to the Legislature to act upon the recommendations and determine how to fund them.The state and local efforts have faced opposition over the potentially steep cost to taxpayers and, in one case, derided as an ill-conceived campaign to impose an “era of social justice.”More on CaliforniaJaywalking Law: California has had one of the strictest jaywalking laws in the nation. Starting Jan. 1, that will no longer be the case.Remaking a River: Taming the Los Angeles River helped Los Angeles emerge as a global megalopolis, but it also left a gaping scar across the territory. Imagining the river’s future poses new challenges.A Piece of Black History Destroyed: Lincoln Heights — a historically Black community in a predominantly white, rural county in Northern California — endured for decades. Then came the Mill fire.Employee Strike: In one of the nation’s biggest strikes in recent years, teaching assistants, researchers and other workers across the University of California system walked off the job to demand higher pay.A two-day public meeting of the state task force this fall, in a makeshift hearing room tucked inside a Los Angeles museum, included a mix of comments from local residents on how they had been personally affected and how the disparities should be addressed, along with testimony from experts who have studied reparations.While even broad-scale reparations would be unlikely to eliminate the racial wealth gap, they could narrow it significantly, and proponents hope California’s effort will influence other states and federal legislators to follow suit.“Calling these local projects reparations is to some degree creating a detour from the central task of compelling the federal government to do its job,” said William A. Darity Jr., a professor at Duke University and a leading scholar on reparations. Even so, Dr. Darity, who is advising the California task force, said “there is an increasing recognition” that the lasting effects of slavery must be addressed.Every year for almost three decades, Representative John Conyers Jr. of Michigan introduced legislation that would have created a commission to explore reparations, but the measure consistently stalled in Congress. After Mr. Conyers retired in 2017, Representative Sheila Jackson Lee of Texas began championing the measure, which passed a House committee for the first time last year, but stalled on the floor.Underscoring the political hurdles, opinions on reparations are sharply divided by race. Last year, an online survey by the University of Massachusetts Amherst found that 86 percent of African Americans supported compensating the descendants of slaves, compared with 28 percent of white people. Other polls have also shown wide splits.Still, several efforts have gotten off the ground recently.In 2021, officials in Evanston, Ill., a Chicago suburb, approved $10 million in reparations in the form of housing grants. Three months later, officials in Asheville, N.C., committed $2.1 million to reparations. And over the summer, the Los Angeles County Board of Supervisors approved a plan to transfer ownership of Bruce’s Beach — a parcel in Manhattan Beach that was seized with scant compensation from a Black couple in 1924 — to the couple’s great-grandsons and great-great-grandsons.“We want to see the land and economic wealth stolen from Black families all across this country returned,” said Kavon Ward, an activist who advocated on behalf of the Bruces’ descendants and has since started a group, Where Is My Land, that seeks to help Black Americans secure restitution.“We are in a moment that we cannot let pass.”A so-called blight law from 1945, the task force’s interim report explains, paved the way for officials to use eminent domain to destroy Black communities, including shuttering more than 800 businesses and displacing 4,700 households in San Francisco’s Western Addition beginning in the 1950s.After work on Interstate 210 began later that decade, the report goes on, the freeway was eventually built in the path of a Black business district in Pasadena, where city officials offered residents $75,000 — less than the minimum cost to buy a new home in the city — for their old homes.And there is Russell City, an unincorporated parcel of Alameda County near the San Francisco Bay shoreline where many Black families fleeing racial terror in the Deep South built lives during the Great Migration. Testimony to the task force by Russell City residents recounts the community’s rise and ultimate bulldozing.A mural honoring the history of Russell City in what is now Hayward, Calif.Jim Wilson/The New York TimesMonique Henderson-Ford grew up hearing stories from her elders about Russell City, where many Black families fleeing racial terror in the Deep South built lives during the Great Migration.Jim Wilson/The New York TimesThe town was demolished to make way for an industrial park.Jim Wilson/The New York TimesUnlike neighboring Hayward and San Leandro, Russell City didn’t have racist housing covenants stipulating that only white families could own certain homes. After World War II, it grew into a small but tight community of Black and Latino families that once included seven churches.On weekends, children played on the unpaved streets as their parents, many of whom worked in the shipyards, sat on porches, and on some foggy nights, Ray Charles and Big Mama Thornton played shows at one of the town’s music venues, called the Country Club.“It was vibrant,” said Monique Henderson-Ford, who grew up hearing stories about Russell City from her mother, grandmother and cousins.After leaving Louisiana in the 1950s, her grandparents lived briefly in San Francisco but were displaced by an urban renewal project. Using savings from years of work at Pacific Gas & Electric, her grandfather paid $7,500 for their property and home in Russell City, and the family soon added three small houses to the homestead for their sons.“This was their American dream,” Ms. Henderson-Ford said in an interview.But it didn’t last long.Lacking sewer lines and reliable electricity, the area was designated as a blight, and officials called for its destruction and the area to be turned into an industrial park. Russell City was annexed into Hayward, and the city and county bought up some properties and seized others through eminent domain. Residents, including Ms. Henderson-Ford’s grandmother, pleaded with officials to be allowed to remain in their homes.“I got a nice place,” she told the Alameda County Board of Supervisors during a public meeting in 1963, according to a transcript. “Allow me a break.”In exchange for their property and homes, county officials gave the family roughly $2,200, less than a third of what it had originally paid, according to Ms. Henderson-Ford.On a recent morning, Ms. Henderson-Ford and her cousin joined a reporter on a walk through what was once Russell City but is now an industrial park.They passed the spot where their grandfather used to fish, yanking up striped bass from the bay as he peered northwest and watched San Francisco’s skyline take its distinctive shape.“Imagine if the houses were still here,” Ms. Henderson-Ford said. “We would all be sitting on a fortune.”Amid the uproar in 2020 over the murder of Mr. Floyd, a Black man, in police custody in Minneapolis, Artavia Berry, who lives in Hayward, knew she had to do something.“We could not look away from what happened right here,” said Ms. Berry, who learned the history of Russell City after moving to the region from Chicago a decade ago.Ms. Berry, who leads the Community Services Commission, a municipal advisory body, composed what would become a formal apology from the City of Hayward to onetime residents of Russell City. Last November, the City Council approved the resolution, as well as several follow-up steps.An aerial view of the area as the industrial park that replaced Russell City, lower right, was under construction in 1971.Hayward Area Historical SocietyA kindergarten class on the playground at a school in Russell City in 1949.Hayward Area Historical SocietyBut in a public letter to city officials, Hayward Concerned Citizens, the group that railed against an “era of social justice,” said the apology was misguided, arguing that Alameda County, not the City of Hayward, had pushed residents out.“We are strongly opposed to any direct financial reparations,” the group wrote.For Gloria Moore, who grew up in Russell City, the words stung.Now 79, she was 3 when her parents arrived in Russell City from Texarkana, Ark. Her mother worked as a cook at a local elementary school and her father worked for Todd Shipyards in the Bay Area. She still has vivid memories of walking to school in the mud when it rained, because the streets weren’t paved and there was no public transportation.After their home was taken for about $2,200, the family members struggled to regain the financial stability and community they had built in Russell City.By the 1970s, Ms. Moore had moved to Los Angeles to begin a career in city government, and she remembered noticing how many of her co-workers owned their own homes. She was renting.Over the years, she and other former residents of Russell City have gathered at a park in Hayward for a Labor Day reunion, where they share stories and often tears.“Sometimes things were suppressed because it was too painful,” she recalled. “But no one ever forgot.” More