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U.S. Added 261,000 Jobs in Strong Showing
Job growth is slowing but remains stronger than comfortable for the Federal Reserve, which is trying to tame high inflation.Monthly change in jobs More
Evelyn Reynolds
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Fed Frets About Shadow Banks and Eyes Treasury Liquidity in New Report
The Federal Reserve is watching the government bond market and investment funds as rate increases ricochet through finance.The Federal Reserve warned in its twice-annual report on America’s financial stability that the government bond market could be primed for disruption, and cautioned that financial firms that operate outside of traditional banks could increase fragility in the system.Investors have been warning that market conditions are becoming increasingly fraught nine months into the Fed’s fastest rate-increase campaign since the 1980s. While the central bank is determined to push ahead with its effort to slow the economy as it tries to choke off rapid inflation, officials are keeping a careful eye on market conditions. A financial meltdown would make the Fed’s job more difficult — potentially even forcing it to deviate from some of its tightening efforts.Financial stability issues are in focus as central banks around the world raise interest rates in synchrony and other markets around the world — including the government bond market in Britain — offer early warning signs that cracks are beginning to emerge.The Financial Stability Report, released on Friday, delved into widely discussed challenges that have been plaguing Treasury markets and detailed less prominent vulnerabilities. Those included elevated leverage at financial institutions beyond banks, what is often referred to as the “shadow banking” system.The ease of trading Treasury securities, called liquidity, has been strained in recent months, which is making analysts and investors nervous that the market could be primed for disruption. The Fed attributed the decline in liquidity “primarily” to volatility in interest rates and economic uncertainty.What the Fed’s Rate Increases Mean for YouCard 1 of 4A toll on borrowers. More
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Biden Spins His Economic Record Ahead of Elections
The president’s recent comments on Social Security, the deficit and economic growth claim credit where it is not always due.WASHINGTON — As President Biden and his administration have told it in recent months, America has the fastest-growing economy in the world, his student debt forgiveness program passed Congress by a vote or two, and Social Security benefits became more generous thanks to his leadership.None of that was accurate.The president, who has long been seen as embellishing the truth, has recently overstated his influence on the economy, or omitted key facts. This week, Mr. Biden praised himself for giving retirees a raise during a speech in Florida.“On my watch, for the first time in 10 years, seniors are getting an increase in their Social Security checks,” he declared. The problem: That increase was the result of an automatic cost-of-living increase prompted by the most rapid inflation in 40 years. Mr. Biden had not done anything to make retirees’ checks bigger — it was just a byproduct of the soaring inflation that the president has vowed to combat.In stops across the country in recent weeks, Mr. Biden has also credited himself with bringing down the federal budget deficit — the gap between what America owes and what it earns.“This year the deficit, under our leadership, is falling by $1.4 trillion,” he said last week in Syracuse, N.Y. “Ladies and gentlemen, the largest ever one-year cut in American history on the deficit.”Left unsaid was the fact that the deficit was so high in the first place because of pandemic relief spending, including a $1.9 trillion economic aid package the president pushed through Congress in 2021 and which was not renewed. Mr. Biden was in effect claiming credit for not passing another round of emergency assistance.White House officials contend that robust tax receipts, which helped reduce the deficit, are largely the result of strong economic growth that was supported by Mr. Biden’s economic policies.The State of the 2022 Midterm ElectionsElection Day is Tuesday, Nov. 8.Biden’s Speech: In a prime-time address, President Biden denounced Republicans who deny the legitimacy of elections, warning that the country’s democratic traditions are on the line.State Supreme Court Races: The traditionally overlooked contests have emerged this year as crucial battlefields in the struggle over the course of American democracy.Democrats’ Mounting Anxiety: Top Democratic officials are openly second-guessing their party’s pitch and tactics, saying Democrats have failed to unite around one central message.Social Security and Medicare: Republicans, eyeing a midterms victory, are floating changes to the safety net programs. Democrats have seized on the proposals to galvanize voters.It is common for presidents to spin economic numbers to improve their pitch to voters. Like many of his predecessors, Mr. Biden has emphasized economic indicators that are favorable to his record, including a low unemployment rate and the record pace of job growth in his first two years in office — a focus intended to win over an American public that remains deeply pessimistic about the economy, according to opinion polls.But as it gets closer to midterm elections that will determine the fate of the rest of Mr. Biden’s legislative agenda, the president’s cheerleading has increasingly grown to include exaggerations or misstatements about the economy and his policy record.White House officials have sometimes been forced to awkwardly correct Mr. Biden’s claims. Other times, they have doubled down on them.Senior administration officials acknowledged that some officials have unintentionally misspoken about the economy on occasion but denied that Mr. Biden or his administration had ever attempted to mislead the public about the economy. They said that his record requires no overstating.“The president’s economic agenda has given us an economy with historic job creation, faster declines in unemployment than prior recoveries, and private sector investments in new industries throughout the country,” Abdullah Hasan, a White House spokesman, said. “Where on occasion we have misspoken, as any human is allowed once in a while, we have acknowledged and corrected or clarified such honest mistakes.”Mr. Biden’s economic exaggerations generally pale in comparison to the tales spun by his predecessor, President Donald J. Trump. The former president, whose lies included insisting that he did not lose the 2020 election and that the Capitol was not attacked by his supporters on Jan. 6, 2021, regularly boasted of “the greatest economy in the history of the world” — a statement not based on any facts. Mr. Trump also said his giant tax cut package paid for itself when it did not, and he relied on outlandish economic growth projections to make his budgets balance.Jason Furman, an economist at Harvard University and a former Obama administration economic adviser, said some of Mr. Biden’s recent contentions appeared to be the types of “leaps of logic” that were common during election seasons. He pointed to the president’s claims of reducing the deficit and overseeing an increase in Social Security payments as examples.“This isn’t like making stuff up,” Mr. Furman said. “It’s just making a rather stretched and peculiar causal argument around true facts.”He added that Mr. Biden’s messaging bore no comparison to the falsehoods Mr. Trump used to tell about America being among the highest-taxed nations in the world, an inaccurate declaration given the far higher tax rates in countries such as France, Denmark and Belgium.“With President Trump, you had flat-out complete factual errors,” Mr. Furman said.Mr. Biden’s pitch has been centered on the notion that he is leading a post-pandemic transition to stable economic growth and that if Republicans take control of Congress, they will look to scale back social safety net programs, shut down the government and weaponize America’s need to borrow money to pay its financial obligations.But as the United States has struggled to contain inflation, the Biden administration has at times resorted to cherry-picking the most favorable data points or leaving out crucial context. In some cases, it has been a matter of presenting graphics that do not tell the whole story.For instance, a White House chart late last year depicted a decline in gas prices over a month as a significant drop. However, the rows of plunging bars showed a decrease of just 10 cents.Inflation has been the most slippery subject, with Biden administration officials often focusing on different measures as they seek silver linings in monthly reports.Cecilia Rouse, the chair of the White House’s Council of Economic Advisers, appeared to misstate the figures in an interview with CNN last month when she was pressed about why “core” inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, was at its highest level in 40 years in September.“So, if one looks month on month, it was actually flat,” Ms. Rouse said.The monthly rate had actually risen by 0.6 percent, a significant increase. The administration said that Ms. Rouse had misspoken and intended to say that core inflation was unchanged for two consecutive months, not that it was zero.Mr. Biden’s comment to Jimmy Kimmel in June about America’s rapid economic growth being the fastest in the world was contradicted by an International Monetary Fund report in July that showed several countries in Europe and Asia were growing faster than the United States this year. The fund predicted at the time that the United States would grow at a sluggish 2.3 percent in 2022 and further downgraded its outlook last month. In this case, the administration said that Mr. Biden was referring to the pace of America’s recovery from the pandemic compared to other major economies.The more recent presidential pronouncement at a forum in October that the student debt relief program passed Congress was perhaps the most head-scratching. It was starkly at odds with the reality that Mr. Biden rolled out the initiative through executive action and that it was being challenged in the courts. A White House official said that Mr. Biden was referring to the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act, which did not include student debt relief.And when Mr. Biden said in September gas prices were averaging below $2.99 a gallon in 41 states and the District of Columbia, they were actually $1 higher. The White House corrected the transcript of his remarks.The Social Security misstep has been portrayed across the spectrum as the biggest blunder.The suggestion by Mr. Biden that the increase in the Social Security cost of living adjustment was a sign of economic health drew bewilderment from Democrats and scorn from Republicans after the White House reinforced the point in a Twitter post from its account on Tuesday.“The only thing the White House can take credit for is the historic inflation that led to the need to increase Social Security payments,” Republicans on the House Ways and Means Committee said in a statement.By Wednesday afternoon, the White House had deleted the tweet.Karine Jean-Pierre, the White House press secretary, tried to explain its removal by saying that the message was lacking crucial information about other ways older Americans were saving money through lower Medicare premiums.“Look, the tweet was not complete,” she said. “Usually when we put out a tweet we post it with context, and it did not have that context.” More
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Here’s where the jobs are for October 2022 — in one chart
The health-care and social assistance sector enjoyed strong gains, adding 71,100 jobs last month.
Manufacturing posted a strong month after adding 32,000 jobs, boosted by increases in the durable goods industry.Jobs growth came in better than expected in October thanks in part to strong gains in the manufacturing, health-care, and professional and business services sectors.
Manufacturing jobs increased by 32,000 last month, boosted by gains in the durable goods industry, according to the Labor Department. That advance brought the sector’s average monthly job gain for the year to 37,000, compared with 30,000 per month in 2021.Some market participants found the increase notable given the sharp slowdown in goods spending in the economy this year, as consumers shift more of their spending to services.
“The manufacturing gain of 32,000 suggest the economy is far from slowing in a meaningful way,” TradeStation Group’s David Russell wrote in a Friday note.
The health-care and social assistance sector also enjoyed strong gains, adding 71,100 jobs last month. By itself, the health-care sector gained 53,000 jobs in October, boosted by growth in ambulatory health-care services, as well as nursing and residential-care facilities.
According to the Labor Department, employment in health care has risen by an average 47,000 per month so far in 2022, outpacing the 9,000 jobs gains posted per month last year.
“People delayed a lot of procedures because of Covid for the last couple of years, so hip replacements and things that were somewhat optional,” said Horizon Investments’ CIO Scott Ladner. “We’re starting to see a surge of those procedures come back.”Leisure and hospitality employment, meanwhile, continued its upward trend, adding 35,000 jobs in October. Jobs growth in the sector was mainly driven by an increase in accommodation jobs, which added 20,000 last month. Positions in restaurants and drinking establishments remained little changed, up 6,000.
The sector is still down by 1.1 million jobs, or 6.5%, from its pre-pandemic level, according to the Labor Department.
Professional and business services also was a standout sector, adding 39,000 jobs in October.
Several sectors lagged those areas in the October jobs report, however. Financial activities gained just 3,000, as employment in the sector has “changed little” over the past six months, the Labor Department said. Construction added just 1,000 jobs in October.
The retail trade sector was also little changed heading into the holiday season, adding just 7,200 jobs.WATCH LIVEWATCH IN THE APP More
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The unemployment rate for Black men fell in October, but so did labor force participation
The unemployment rate for Black men fell to 5.3% in October from 5.8% a month earlier, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics released Friday.
That was for the wrong reasons, however — labor force participation and the employment to population ratio fell.
Black and Hispanic workers still have higher rates of unemployment than white counterparts.A Now Hiring sign at a Dunkin’ restaurant on September 21, 2021 in Hallandale, Florida.
Joe Raedle | Getty ImagesThe unemployment rate for Black men ticked down in October while it rose for most other groups, but that may be because workers are dropping out of the labor force.
The October nonfarm payrolls print showed that the U.S. economy added 261,000 jobs in the month and that the unemployment rate for all workers increased to 3.7% from 3.5%.For Black men, unemployment fell to 5.3% from 5.8% a month earlier on a seasonally adjusted basis. White unemployment rose to 3.2% overall up from 3.1% a month earlier.
“It went in the right direction for the wrong reasons,” said Bill Spriggs, an economics professor at Howard University and chief economist for the AFL-CIO.The wrong reasons
The downward motion in unemployment for Black men is likely due to the labor force participation rate, which dipped slightly to 67.2% in October, just below the previous month’s reading of 68%.
In addition, the employment-to-population ratio for Black men fell to 63.6% from 64.1% in September, which could indicate that workers have stopped looking for jobs, sending unemployment lower.
Unemployment for Hispanic workers also jumped in October, outpacing the uptick for Black and white workers. It jumped to 4.2% from 3.8% in September.“It’s showing this continued frustration that workers of color are having in the labor market,” said Spriggs. Though overall there is strength in the labor market, “this is not the tight labor market where people can just walk in and get a job no matter who they are.”
Overall Black unemployment ticked up led by Black women. In October, the unemployment rate for Black women jumped to 5.8% from 5.4% in September.
“This is concerning because throughout both the pandemic and the economic recovery from the pandemic crisis, Black women have been lagging behind,” said Kate Bahn, director of economic policy and chief economist at the Washington Center for Equitable Growth, a non-profitOn the brighter side, the employment to population ratio for Black women didn’t change, though labor market participation ticked up during the month. That could be a sign that more Black women are returning to the labor force and are looking for jobs but haven’t yet found employment, noted Valerie Wilson, director of the program on race, ethnicity and the economy at the Economic Policy Institute.
“It doesn’t suggest that there’s a huge number of people losing jobs,” she said.Going forward
Of course, one month of data does not make a trend, so it’s important to look at the longer-term picture for workers of color.
Generally, the unemployment rate for workers of color has stepped down in recent months in-line with white counterparts, and labor force participation and the employment to population ratio have mostly held steady, said Wilson.
Still, there may be cause for concern going forward depending on how the Federal Reserve reads the October report. The labor market has remained strong amid historic interest rate hikes meant to tame high inflation, and the central bank is poised to continue its path of raising rates.
If the Fed goes too far and pushed the U.S. economy into a recession, that could have the worst impact on workers of color.
“If we throw the economy into a recession, that impact at least historically is more likely to hit harder in communities of color,” said Wilson.
— CNBC’s Gabriel Cortes contributed reporting.WATCH LIVEWATCH IN THE APP More
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U.S. payrolls surged by 261,000 in October, better than expected as hiring remains strong
Nonfarm payrolls grew by 261,000 in October, better than the estimate for 205,000.
The unemployment rate moved higher to 3.7%, while a broader jobless measure also increased, to 6.8%.
Big job gainers by industry included health care, professional and technical services, and leisure and hospitality.
Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% for the month and were up 4.7% from a year ago.Job growth was stronger than expected in October despite Federal Reserve interest rate increases aimed at slowing what is still a strong labor market.
Nonfarm payrolls grew by 261,000 for the month while the unemployment rate moved higher to 3.7%, the Labor Department reported Friday. Those payroll numbers were better than the Dow Jones estimate for 205,000 more jobs, but worse than the 3.5% estimate for the unemployment rate.Although the number was better than expected, it still marked the slowest pace of job gains since December 2020.
Average hourly earnings grew 4.7% from a year ago and 0.4% for the month, indicating that wage growth is still likely to serve as a price pressure as worker pay is still well short of the rate of inflation. The yearly growth met expectations while the monthly gain was slightly ahead of the 0.3% estimate.
Health care led job gains, adding 53,000 positions, while professional and technical services contributed 43,000, and manufacturing grew by 32,000.
Leisure and hospitality also posted solid growth, up 35,000 jobs, though the pace of increases has slowed considerably from the gains posted in 2021. The group, which includes hotel, restaurant and bar jobs along with related sectors, is averaging gains of 78,000 a month this year, compared with 196,000 last year.
Heading into the holiday shopping season, retail posted only a modest gain of 7,200 jobs. Wholesale trade added 15,000, while transportation and warehousing was up 8,000.The unemployment rate rose 0.2 percentage point even though the labor force participation rate declined by one-tenth of a point to 62.2%. An alternative measure of unemployment, which includes discouraged workers and those holding part-time jobs for economic reasons, also edged higher to 6.8%.
Stock market futures rose following the nonfarm payrolls release, while Treasury yields also were higher.
September’s jobs number was revised higher, to 315,000, an increase of 52,000 from the original estimate. August’s number moved lower by 23,000 to 292,000.
The new figures come as the Fed is on a campaign to bring down inflation running at an annual rate of 8.2%, according to one government gauge. Earlier this week, the central bank approved its fourth consecutive 0.75 percentage point interest rate increase, taking benchmark borrowing rates to a range of 3.75%-4%.
Those hikes are aimed in part at cooling a labor market where there are still nearly two jobs for every available unemployed worker. Even with the reduced pace, job growth has been well ahead of its pre-pandemic level, in which monthly payroll growth averaged 164,000 in 2019.
But Tom Porcelli, chief U.S. economist at RBC Capital Markets, said the broader picture is of a slowly deteriorating labor market.
“This thing doesn’t fall of a cliff. It’s a grind into a slower backdrop,” he said. “It works this way every time. So the fact that people want to hang their hat on this lagging indicator to determine where we are going is sort of laughable.”
Indeed, there have been signs of cracks lately.
Amazon on Thursday said it is pausing hiring for roles in its corporate workforce, an announcement that came after the online retail behemoth said it was halting new hires for its corporate retail jobs.
Also, Apple said it will be freezing new hires except for research and development. Ride-hailing company Lyft reported it will be slicing 13% of its workforce, while online payments company Stripe said it is cutting 14% of its workers.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell on Wednesday characterized the labor market as “overheated” and said the current pace of wage gains is “well above” what would be consistent with the central bank’s 2% inflation target.
“Demand is still strong,” said Amy Glaser, senior vice president of business operations at Adecco, a staffing and recruiting firm. “Everyone is anticipating at some point that we’ll start to see a shift in demand. But so far we’re continuing to see the labor market defying the law of supply and demand.”
Glaser said demand is especially strong in warehousing, retail and hospitality, the sector hardest hit by the Covid pandemic.
This is breaking news. Please check back here for updates.WATCH LIVEWATCH IN THE APP More
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Workers Expect Fast Inflation Next Year. Could That Make It a Reality?
The Federal Reserve chair is eyeing near-term inflation expectations, which might shape wages — and help keep prices rising rapidly.Amitis Oskoui, a consultant who works mostly with nonprofits and philanthropies, has not had a wage increase since inflation began to noticeably eat away at her paycheck early this year. What she has had are job offers.Ms. Oskoui, 36, has tried to leverage those prospects to argue for a raise as the rising cost of food, child care and life in general in Orange County, Calif., has cut into her family budget.“Generally, in the past, it was taboo to say: I need it to survive, and I know what I’m worth on the market,” she said. “In this environment, I think it’s more acceptable. Inflation is so front of mind, and it’s a big part of the public conversation about the economy.”That logic, reasonable at an individual level, is making the Federal Reserve nervous as it echoes across America.When employees successfully push for raises to cover their cost of living, companies face higher wage bills. To offset those expenses, firms may lift prices, creating a cycle in which fast inflation today begets fast — and maybe even faster — inflation tomorrow.So far, Fed officials do not think that wage growth has been a primary driver of America’s rapid inflation, Jerome H. Powell, the Fed chair, said on Wednesday.But an employment report set for release Friday is likely to show that average hourly earnings climbed 4.7 percent over the past year, economists predict. That is far faster than the 3 percent pace that prevailed before the pandemic, and is so quick that it could make it difficult for inflation to fully fade. Plus, policymakers remain anxious that today’s pressures could yet turn into a spiral in which wages and prices chase each other higher.Inflation F.A.Q.Card 1 of 5What is inflation? More
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Elon Musk Begins Layoffs at Twitter
The social media company’s 7,500 employees have been bracing for job cuts since Mr. Musk took it over last week.SAN FRANCISCO — Elon Musk will begin laying off Twitter employees on Friday, culling the social media company’s 7,500-person work force a little over a week after completing his blockbuster buyout.Twitter employees were notified in a company-wide email that the layoffs were set to begin, according to a copy of the message seen by The New York Times. About half the company’s workers appeared set to lose their jobs, according to internal messages and an investor, though the final count may take time to become clear. The email instructed Twitter employees to go home and not return to the offices on Friday as the cuts proceeded. Mr. Musk completed his $44 billion purchase of Twitter on Oct. 27 and immediately fired its chief executive and other top managers. More executives have since resigned or were let go, while managers were asked to draw up lists of high- and low-performing employees, likely with an eye toward job cuts.Mr. Musk, the world’s richest man, faces pressure to make Twitter work financially. The deal was the largest leveraged buyout of a technology company in history. The billionaire also loaded about $13 billion in debt on Twitter for the acquisition and is on the hook to pay about $1 billion a year in interest payments. But Twitter has often lost money, and its cash flow is not robust. Mr. Musk may benefit from cutting costs so the company is less expensive to operate.Twitter’s layoffs are unlikely to be the largest in the tech industry by total number. The computer manufacturer HP cut 24,600 of its employees, about 7.5 percent, in 2008. It later cut tens of thousands more, reaching about 30 percent of its work force.Elon Musk’s Acquisition of TwitterCard 1 of 8A blockbuster deal. More
