Evelyn Reynolds

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    Loans Could Burn Start-Up Workers in Downturn

    SAN FRANCISCO — Last year, Bolt Financial, a payments start-up, began a new program for its employees. They owned stock options in the company, some worth millions of dollars on paper, but couldn’t touch that money until Bolt sold or went public. So Bolt began providing them with loans — some reaching hundreds of thousands of dollars — against the value of their stock.In May, Bolt laid off 200 workers. That set off a 90-day period for those who had taken out the loans to pay the money back. The company tried to help them figure out options for repayment, said a person with knowledge of the situation who spoke anonymously because the person was not authorized to speak publicly.Bolt’s program was the most extreme example of a burgeoning ecosystem of loans for workers at privately held tech start-ups. In recent years, companies such as Quid and Secfi have sprung up to offer loans or other forms of financing to start-up employees, using the value of their private company shares as a sort of collateral. These providers estimate that start-up employees around the world hold at least $1 trillion in equity to lend against.But as the start-up economy now deflates, buffeted by economic uncertainty, soaring inflation and rising interest rates, Bolt’s situation serves as a warning about the precariousness of these loans. While most of them are structured to be forgiven if a start-up fails, employees could still face a tax bill because the loan forgiveness is treated as taxable income. And in situations like Bolt’s, the loans may be difficult to repay on short notice.“No one’s been thinking about what happens when things go down,” said Rick Heitzmann, an investor at FirstMark Capital. “Everyone’s only thinking about the upside.”The proliferation of these loans has ignited a debate in Silicon Valley. Proponents said the loans were necessary for employees to participate in tech’s wealth-creation engine. But critics said the loans created needless risk in an already-risky industry and were reminiscent of the dot-com era in the early 2000s, when many tech workers were badly burned by loans related to their stock options.Ted Wang, a former start-up lawyer and an investor at Cowboy Ventures, was so alarmed by the loans that he published a blog post in 2014, “Playing With Fire,” advising against them for most people. Mr. Wang said he got a fresh round of calls about the loans anytime the market overheated and always felt obligated to explain the risks.“I’ve seen this go wrong, bad wrong,” he wrote in his blog post.Start-up loans stem from the way workers are typically paid. As part of their compensation, most employees at privately held tech companies receive stock options. The options must eventually be exercised, or bought at a set price, to own the stock. Once someone owns the shares, he or she cannot usually cash them out until the start-up goes public or sells.That’s where loans and other financing options come in. Start-up stock is used as a form of collateral for these cash advances. The loans vary in structure, but most providers charge interest and take a percentage of the worker’s stock when the company sells or goes public. Some are structured as contracts or investments. Unlike the loans offered by Bolt, most are known as “nonrecourse” loans, meaning employees are not on the hook to repay them if their stock loses its value.This lending industry has boomed in recent years. Many of the providers were created in the mid-2010s as hot start-ups like Uber and Airbnb put off initial public offerings of stock as long as they could, hitting private market valuations in the tens of billions of dollars.That meant many of their workers were bound by “golden handcuffs,” unable to leave their jobs because their stock options had become so valuable that they could not afford to pay the taxes, based on the current market value, on exercising them. Others became tired of sitting on the options while they waited for their companies to go public.The loans have given start-up employees cash to use in the meantime, including money to cover the costs of buying their stock options. Even so, many tech workers do not always understand the intricacies of equity compensation.“We work with supersmart Stanford computer science A.I. graduates, but no one explains it to them,” said Oren Barzilai, chief executive of Equitybee, a site that helps start-up workers find investors for their stock. Secfi, a provider of financing and other services, has now issued $700 million of cash financing to start-up workers since it opened in 2017. Quid has issued hundreds of millions’ worth of loans and other financing to hundreds of people since 2016. Its latest $320 million fund is backed by institutions, including Oaktree Capital Management, and it charges those who take out loans the origination fees and interest.So far, less than 2 percent of Quid’s loans have been underwater, meaning the market value of the stock has fallen below that of the loan, said Josh Berman, a founder of the company. Secfi said that 35 percent of its loans and financing had been fully paid back, and that its loss rate was 2 to 3 percent.But Frederik Mijnhardt, Secfi’s chief executive, predicted that the next six to 12 months could be difficult for tech workers if their stock options decline in value in a downturn but they had taken out loans at a higher value.“Employees could be facing a reckoning,” he said.Such loans have become more popular in recent years, said J.T. Forbus, an accountant at Bogdan & Frasco who works with start-up employees. A big reason is that traditional banks won’t lend against start-up equity. “There’s too much risk,” he said.Start-up employees pay $60 billion a year to exercise their stock options, Equitybee estimated. For various reasons, including an inability to afford them, more than half the options issued are never exercised, meaning the workers abandon part of their compensation. Mr. Forbus said he’d had to carefully explain the terms of such deals to his clients. “The contracts are very difficult to understand, and they don’t really play out the math,” he said. Some start-up workers regret taking the loans. Grant Lee, 39, spent five years working at Optimizely, a software start-up, accumulating stock options worth millions. When he left the company in 2018, he had a choice to buy his options or forfeit them. He decided to exercise them, taking out a $400,000 loan to help with the cost and taxes.In 2020, Optimizely was acquired by Episerver, a Swedish software company, for a price that was lower than its last private valuation of $1.1 billion. That meant the stock options held by employees at the higher valuation were worth less. For Mr. Lee, the value of his Optimizely stock fell below that of the loan he had taken out. While his loan was forgiven, he still owed around $15,000 in taxes since loan forgiveness counts as taxable income.“I got nothing, and on top of that, I had to pay taxes for getting nothing,” he said.The office of Envoy, a start-up that makes workplace software, in San Francisco. The company began a loan program in May.Lauren Segal for The New York TimesOther companies use the loans to give their workers more flexibility. In May, Envoy, a San Francisco start-up that makes workplace software, used Quid to offer nonrecourse loans to dozens of its employees so they could get cash then. Envoy, which was recently valued at $1.4 billion, did not encourage or discourage people from taking the loans, said Larry Gadea, the chief executive.“If people believe in the company and want to double down on it and see how much better they can do, this is a great option,” he said.In a downturn, loan terms may become more onerous. The I.P.O. market is frozen, pushing potential payoffs further into the future, and the depressed stock market means private start-up shares are probably worth less than they were during boom times, especially in the last two years.Quid is adding more underwriters to help find the proper value for the start-up stock it lends against. “We’re being more conservative than we have in the past,” Mr. Berman said.Bolt appears to be a rarity in that it offered high-risk personal recourse loans to all its employees. Ryan Breslow, Bolt’s founder, announced the program with a congratulatory flourish on Twitter in February, writing that it showed “we simply CARE more about our employees than most.”The company’s program was meant to help employees afford exercising their shares and cut down on taxes, he said.Bolt declined to comment on how many laid-off employees had been affected by the loan paybacks. It offered employees the choice of giving their start-up shares back to the company to repay their loans. Business Insider reported earlier on the offer.Mr. Breslow, who stepped down as Bolt’s chief executive in February, did not respond to a request for comment on the layoffs and loans.In recent months, he has helped found Prysm, a provider of nonrecourse loans for start-up equity. In pitch materials sent to investors that were viewed by The New York Times, Prysm, which did not respond to a request for comment, advertised Mr. Breslow as its first customer. Borrowing against the value of his stock in Bolt, the presentation said, Mr. Breslow took a loan for $100 million. More

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    Yellen says the U.S. and its allies should use ‘friend-shoring’ to give supply chains a boost

    In a speech made at South Korean conglomerate LG’s Science Park in Seoul on Tuesday, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen drummed up support from allies of the U.S. to work together in carving up more resilient supply chains among trusted partners through “friend-shoring.”
    The term draws on the concepts of “onshoring” and “nearshoring,” which refer to the transferring of supply chains back home or closer to home, as opposed to having them in foreign countries. “Friend-shoring” goes beyond that but limits supply chain networks to allies and friendly countries.
    But Yellen said these measures do not indicate the U.S. is withdrawing from global trade.

    U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen (pictured here at a news conference, ahead of the G-20 meeting in Bali on July 14), said supply chain resilience is a key focus of the Biden-Harris administration.
    Made Nagi | Reuters

    U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has reiterated the need for the United States and its trusted trading partners to boost supply chain resilience through “friend-shoring,” but said this does not mean the U.S. is retreating from the rest of world.
    In a speech made at South Korean conglomerate LG’s Science Park in Seoul on Tuesday, Yellen drummed up support from allies of the U.S. to work together in carving up more resilient supply chains among trusted partners through “friend-shoring.”

    The term draws on the concepts of “onshoring” and “nearshoring,” which refer to the transferring of supply chains back home or closer to home, as opposed to having them in foreign countries. “Friend-shoring” goes beyond that but limits supply chain networks to allies and friendly countries.
    The U.S. has been pushing for more security in its supply chains since the Covid pandemic started. U.S. President Joe Biden signed an order in early 2021 to review American supply chains with an aim to reduce reliance on foreign suppliers.
    “Supply chain resilience is a key focus of the Biden-Harris administration. And the necessity of this work has been illustrated clearly by the events of the past two years, first by Covid-19 and our efforts to fight the pandemic and now by Russia’s brutal war of aggression in Ukraine,” Yellen said. 
    “Together they have redrawn the contours of global supply chains and trade.””Working with allies and partners through friend-shoring is an important element of strengthening economic resilience while sustaining the dynamism and productivity growth that comes with economic integration.”

    Those initiatives, however, have prompted concerns of a possible global economic decoupling, particularly as the United States and other countries seek to avoid an overreliance on China. 

    Yellen said these measures do not indicate the U.S. is withdrawing from global trade. Rather, she said, they show that friendly countries are taking a longer-term perspective on vulnerabilities in an effort to make economies more productive. 
    “We do not want a retreat from the world, causing us to forgo the benefits it brings to the American people and the markets for businesses and exports,” Yellen said, in reference to deepening ties with South Korea. 
    “In doing so we can help to insulate both American and Korean households from the price increases and disruptions caused by geopolitical and economic risks … in that sense, we can continue to strengthen the international system we’ve all benefited from, while also protecting ourselves from the fragilities in global trade networks.”
    Supply chain resilience dominated this leg of Yellen’s visit to Asia, which followed last week’s trip to Bali, Indonesia, for the Group of 20 meeting. 

    South Korea’s LG also reaffirmed its latest U.S. collaboration, a $1.7 billion lithium-ion battery manufacturing expansion in Michigan, while Yellen outlined Hyundai’s electric vehicle and battery manufacturing facilities in Georgia and Samsung’s semiconductor chip plant in Texas. 
    Other ventures that support supply chain resilience efforts include the recently announced Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, Yellen added.
    “With ‘friend-shoring,’ South Korea and the U.S. are in an ideal spot,” James Kim, chair of AmCham in South Korea, told CNBC’s “Capital Connection” on Tuesday.
    “This is the most exciting phase I have seen in the past 18 years.”
    Kim said while there were more direct South Korean investments in the United States than vice versa, American interests in the Asian country are growing.
    A recent survey by AmCham shows that for the first time, South Korea ranks as the second-most attractive location for regional headquarters in Asia, after Singapore, Kim said.

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    Indian Rupee Hits Weakest Level Ever Against U.S. Dollar

    How much an Indian rupee is worth

    Note: Scale is inverted. A falling line indicates a weaker rupee.Source: FactSetBy The New York TimesThe Indian rupee touched the weakest level on record against the dollar on Tuesday, another victim of higher energy prices and a stronger greenback.The rupee has lost about 7 percent of its value against the dollar this year as India has spent more to import sources of energy like crude oil, natural gas and coal. Prices of those commodities have climbed after Russia invaded Ukraine.Another factor behind the decline of the rupee is uncertainty about the global economy that has, in turn, propelled the dollar to a 20-year high against the currencies of its major trading partners. Investors have pulled money out of India and other developing countries and poured it in to the United States, where the Federal Reserve is raising interest rates aggressively to tame inflation.“A lot of it is dollar strength rather than rupee weakness,” said Rahul Bajoria, the chief economist for India at Barclays. “It still feels like on a relative basis the rupee has done a lot better,” he said, pointing to the steeper declines in the value of the euro and the British pound against the dollar.On Tuesday, the rupee briefly crossed 80 to the dollar for the first time. The Reserve Bank of India intervened in the market, as it has in recent months, to bid up the currency, according to local media reports.Like in much of the world, inflation has slowed economic growth this year in India. Reserve Bank officials responded by unexpectedly raising rates in May, and then again in June, to 4.9 percent. But inflation remains around 7 percent, putting pressure on household budgets.Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government has cut taxes on fuel and restricted exports of wheat and sugar. And it has bought more Russian oil, which has become cheaper following sanctions imposed by the United States and Europe. More

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    How Joe Manchin Left a Global Tax Deal in Limbo

    Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen’s signature achievement is in jeopardy if the United States cannot ratify the tax agreement that she brokered.WASHINGTON — In June, months after reluctantly signing on to a global tax agreement brokered by the United States, Ireland’s finance minister met privately with Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen, seeking reassurances that the Biden administration would hold up its end of the deal.Ms. Yellen assured the minister, Paschal Donohoe, that the administration would be able to secure enough votes in Congress to ensure that the United States was in compliance with the pact, which was aimed at cracking down on companies evading taxes by shifting jobs and profits around the world.It turns out that Ms. Yellen was overly optimistic. Late last week, Senator Joe Manchin III, Democrat of West Virginia, effectively scuttled the Biden administration’s tax agenda in Congress — at least for now — by saying he could not immediately support a climate, energy and tax package he had spent months negotiating with the Democratic leadership. He expressed deep misgivings about the international tax deal, which he had previously indicated he could support, saying it would put American companies at a disadvantage.“I said we’re not going to go down that path overseas right now because the rest of the countries won’t follow, and we’ll put all of our international companies in jeopardy, which harms the American economy,” Mr. Manchin told a West Virginia radio station on Friday. “So we took that off the table.”Mr. Manchin’s reversal, couched in the language used by Republican opponents of the deal, is a blow to Ms. Yellen, who spent months getting more than 130 countries on board. It is also a defeat for President Biden and Democratic leaders in the Senate, who pushed hard to raise tax rates on many multinational corporations in hopes of leading the world in an effort to stop companies from shifting jobs and income to minimize their tax bills.The agreement would have ushered in the most sweeping changes to global taxation in decades, including raising taxes on many large corporations and changing how technology companies are taxed. The two-pronged approach would entail countries enacting a 15 percent minimum tax so that companies pay a rate of at least that much on their global profits no matter where they set up shop. It would also allow governments to tax the world’s largest and most profitable companies based on where their goods and services were sold, not where their headquarters were.Failure to get agreement at home creates a mess both for the Biden administration and for multinational corporations. Many other countries are likely to press ahead to ratify the deal, but some may now be emboldened to hold out, fracturing the coalition and potentially opening the door for some countries to continue marketing themselves as corporate tax havens.For now, the situation will allow for the continued aggressive use of global tax avoidance strategies by companies like the pharmaceutical giant AbbVie. A Senate Finance Committee report this month found that the company made three-quarters of its sales to American customers in 2020, yet reported only 1 percent of its income in the United States for tax purposes — a move that allowed it to slash its effective tax rate to about half of the 21 percent American corporate income tax rate.Not changing international tax laws could also sow new uncertainty for large tech companies, like Google and Amazon, and other businesses that earn money from consumers in countries where they do not have many employees or physical offices. Part of the global agreement was meant to give those companies more certainty on which countries could tax them, and how much they would have to pay.America’s refusal to take part would be a significant setback for Ms. Yellen, whose role in getting the deal done was viewed as her signature diplomatic achievement. For months last year, she lobbied nations around the world, from Ireland to India, on the merits of the tax agreement, only to see her own political party decline to heed her calls to get on board.Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen and Finance Minister Paschal Donohoe of Ireland met in Washington last month.Andrew Harnik/Associated PressAfter Mr. Manchin’s comments, the Treasury Department said it was not giving up on the agreement.“The United States remains committed to finalizing a global minimum tax,” Michael Kikukawa, a Treasury spokesman, said in a statement. “It’s too important for our economic strength and competitiveness to not finalize this agreement, and we’ll continue to look at every avenue possible to get it done.”Jared Bernstein, a member of Mr. Biden’s Council of Economic Advisers, told reporters at the White House on Monday that Mr. Biden “remains fully committed” to participating in a global tax agreement.Understand What Happened to Biden’s Domestic AgendaCard 1 of 6‘Build Back Better.’ More

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    China holdings of U.S. debt fall below $1 trillion for the first time since 2010

    China’s portfolio of government debt in May dropped to $980.8 billion, according to Treasury Department data released Monday.
    It marked the first time since May 2010 that China’s holdings fell below the $1 trillion mark.

    The U.S. Treasury building in Washington, D.C.
    Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images

    China’s holdings of U.S. debt have fallen below $1 trillion for the first time in 12 years amid rising interest rates that have made Treasurys potentially less attractive.
    Continuing a trend that began early in 2021, China’s portfolio of U.S. government debt in May dropped to $980.8 billion, according to Treasury Department data released Monday. That’s a decline of nearly $23 billion from April and down nearly $100 billion, or 9%, from the year-earlier month.

    It also marked the first time since May 2010 that China’s holdings fell below the $1 trillion mark. Japan is now the leading holder of U.S. debt with $1.2 trillion.
    The debt decline comes as the U.S. Federal Reserve has been raising rates to stop inflation running at its fastest rate since 1981. When rates rise on bonds, prices drop, meaning a capital loss for investors who sell the bonds ahead of maturity.
    The decline in China’s share also has been attributed to Beijing working to diversify its foreign debt portfolio.
    The reporting period came before the Fed hiked benchmark overnight borrowing rates by 0.75 percentage point in June; there is another increase of the same size likely next week.

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    Global Central Banks Ramp Up Inflation Fight

    Central banks in the U.S., Europe, Canada and parts of Asia are lifting interest rates rapidly as they try to wrestle breakneck inflation under control.Central bankers around the world are lifting interest rates at an aggressive clip as rapid inflation persists and seeps into a broad array of goods and services, setting the global economy up for a lurch toward more expensive credit, lower stock and bond values and — potentially — a sharp pullback in economic activity.It’s a moment unlike anything the international community has experienced in decades, as countries around the world try to bring rapid price increases under control before they become a more lasting part of the economy.Inflation has surged across many advanced and developing economies since early 2021 as strong demand for goods collided with shortages brought on by the pandemic. Central banks spent months hoping that economies would reopen and shipping routes would unclog, easing supply constraints, and that consumer spending would return to normal. That hasn’t happened, and the war in Ukraine has only intensified the situation by disrupting oil and food supplies, pushing prices even higher.Global economic policymakers began responding in earnest this year, with at least 75 central banks lifting interest rates, many from historically low levels. While policymakers cannot do much to contain high energy prices, higher borrowing costs could help slow consumer and business demand to give supply a chance to catch up across an array of goods and services so that inflation does not continue indefinitely.The European Central Bank will meet this week and is expected to make its first rate increase since 2011, one that officials have signaled will most likely be only a quarter point but will probably be followed by a larger move in September.Other central banks have begun moving more aggressively already, with officials from Canada to the Philippines picking up the pace of rate increases in recent weeks amid fears that consumers and investors are beginning to expect steadily higher prices — a shift that could make inflation a more permanent feature of the economic backdrop. Federal Reserve officials have also hastened their response. They lifted borrowing costs in June by the most since 1994 and suggested that an even bigger move is possible, though several in recent days have suggested that speeding up again is not their preferred plan for the upcoming July meeting and that a second three-quarter-point increase is most likely.As interest rates jump around the world, making money that has been cheap for years more expensive to borrow, they are stoking fears among investors that the global economy could slow sharply — and that some countries could find themselves plunged into painful recessions. Commodity prices, some of which can serve as a barometer of expected consumer demand and global economic health, have dropped as investors grow jittery. International economic officials have warned that the path ahead could prove bumpy as central banks adjust policy and as the war in Ukraine heightens uncertainty.“It is going to be a tough 2022 — and possibly an even tougher 2023, with increased risk of recession,” Kristalina Georgieva, the managing director of the International Monetary Fund wrote.Pool photo by Sonny Tumbelaka“It is going to be a tough 2022 — and possibly an even tougher 2023, with increased risk of recession,” Kristalina Georgieva, the managing director of the International Monetary Fund, said in a blog post on Wednesday. Ms. Georgieva argued that central banks need to react to inflation, saying that “acting now will hurt less than acting later.”Ms. Georgieva pointed out that about three-quarters of the institutions the fund tracks have raised interest rates since July 2021. Developed economies have lifted them by 1.7 percentage points on average, while emerging economies have moved by more than 3 percentage points.8 Signs That the Economy Is Losing SteamCard 1 of 9Worrying outlook. More

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    Voters See a Bad Economy, Even if They’re Doing OK

    A New York Times/Siena poll shows remarkable pessimism despite the labor market’s resilience. That could be costly for the Democrats, and the economy.The fastest inflation in four decades has Americans feeling dour about the economy, even as their own finances have, so far, held up relatively well.Just 10 percent of registered voters say the U.S. economy is “good” or “excellent,” according to a New York Times/Siena College poll — a remarkable degree of pessimism at a time when wages are rising and the unemployment rate is near a 50-year low. But the rapidly rising cost of food, gas and other essentials is wiping out pay increases and eroding living standards.Americans’ grim outlook is bad news for President Biden and congressional Democrats heading into this fall’s midterm elections, given that 78 percent of voters say inflation will be “extremely important” when they head to the polls.

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    Thinking about the nation’s economy, how would you rate economic conditions today?
    Based on a New York Times/Siena College poll of 849 registered voters from July 5 to 7.By The New York TimesIt could be bad news for the economy as well. One long-running index of consumer sentiment hit a record low in June, and other surveys likewise show Americans becoming increasingly nervous about both their own finances and the broader economy.Economists have long studied the role of consumer sentiment, which can be driven by media narratives and indicators unrepresentative of the broader economy, like certain grocery prices or shortages of particular goods. At least in theory, economic pessimism can become self-fulfilling, as consumers pull back their spending, leading to layoffs and, ultimately, to a recession.Christina Simmons grew up poor and has worked hard to give her 7-year-old son a better life. She has climbed the ranks at the health insurer where she works near Jacksonville, Fla., and has more than doubled her salary over the past few years. Yet she feels as if she is falling behind.“I worked my butt off to get to where I’m at so I could take vacations with my son,” she said. “We would take off for the weekend and get a hotel room in another state, and go do a hike and see a waterfall and order a pizza in a hotel room and all of that. And I just can’t do that anymore.”Ms. Simmons, 30, is still able to make ends meet, partly because she is able to save money on gas by working remotely. But she is worried about what could happen if the economy slows and puts her job in jeopardy — one consequence of being promoted, she said, is that she is farther from customers, making her more vulnerable to layoffs. She has cut out modest luxuries, like a gym membership and nights out with friends, to build up her savings.“I’m saving the money just in case it gets even worse,” she said. “I’m being more strict than I have to because I don’t know how it’s going to go.”Inflation F.A.Q.Card 1 of 5What is inflation? More

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    Retail sales rose more than expected in June as consumers remain resilient despite inflation

    Retail sales rose 1% in June, slightly better than the 0.9% estimate.
    The numbers are not adjusted for inflation, which rose 1.3% on a monthly basis, indicating that real sales still were slightly negative.
    Gasoline stations, online sales, and bars and restaurants were some of the biggest contributors.

    Consumer spending held up during June’s inflation surge, with retail sales rising slightly more than expected for the month amid rising prices across most categories, the Commerce Department reported Friday.
    Advance retail sales increased 1% for the month, better than the Dow Jones estimate of a 0.9% rise. That marked a big jump from the 0.1% decline in May, a number that was revised higher from the initial report of a 0.3% drop.

    Unlike many other government numbers, the retail figures are not adjusted for inflation, which rose 1.3% during the month, indicating that real sales were slightly negative.
    Rising costs for food and gasoline in particular helped propel the increase, which was nonetheless broad-based against the various metrics in the report.

    A pedestrian carries a shopping bag while walking through Union Square on May 17, 2022 in San Francisco, California.
    Justin Sullivan | Getty Images

    Excluding autos, the monthly rise also was 1%, topping the 0.7% estimate.
    “The 1.0% [month-over-month] rise in retail sales in June isn’t as good as it looks, as it mainly reflects the boost to nominal sales values from surging prices,” wrote Andrew Hunter, senior U.S. economist at Capital Economics. “Accounting for the surge in prices, however, real consumption looks to have been broadly stagnant in June.”
    Consumer sentiment remains relatively downbeat; a separate report from the University of Michigan registered a reading of just 51.1, better than the 50 estimate but still around record lows. Inflation expectations remain elevated, with the one-year outlook at 5.2% little changed from levels of the past months.

    Markets nevertheless rallied following the morning’s economic news, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up more than 470 points in the first half-hour of trading. Government bond yields moved lower.
    Gasoline sales rose 3.6% as prices at the pump briefly topped $5 a gallon, a move that has since eased as oil prices have declined in July.
    Sales at bars and restaurants increased 1%, while online sales rose 2.2%, and furniture and home store sales were up 1.4%. However, some brick-and-mortar sales, fell, with general merchandise off 0.2% due to a 2.6% decline in department stores.
    The retail report shows that consumers have been mostly resilient in the face of the highest inflation rate since November 1981.
    Consumer prices in June were up 9.1% over the past year, a product of record-high gas prices and spreading inflation that drove rents up to their highest monthly gain since 1986 and dental care to its biggest rise since at least 1995.
    Despite the increases, consumer finances have held up well.
    Debt to after-tax income has been rising, but at 9.5% is still well below longer-term levels, according to Federal Reserve data. Household net worth edged lower in the first quarter, largely a product of a decline in the stock market that reduced equity holdings by $3 trillion.
    Other economic data points, though, have been weakening.
    Though spending continues, consumer confidence is around record lows. Housing data has been weak lately, and regional manufacturing surveys are reflecting a slowdown. A Fed survey released earlier this week showed concerns about inflation and a recession escalating.
    However, a New York Fed report Friday morning provided some good news about manufacturing.
    The Empire State Manufacturing Survey for July posted an 11.1 reading, representing the percentage difference between companies seeing expansion versus contraction. That was much better than the Dow Jones estimate for a minus-2, and reflected big gains in shipments, a welcome change considering supply chain problems that have helped drive inflation.
    The survey showed that prices remain elevated but the share of companies seeing increases is declining.
    On the downside, companies turned pessimistic about the future, with a net 20.2% seeing worsening conditions over the next six months.
    Fed policymakers have responded to the inflation issue with a series of rate increases and are expected to approve another hike later this month that could hit 1 percentage point, the largest such increase since the central bank began using its benchmark rate to implement policy nearly 30 years ago.
    Fed Governor Christopher Waller said Thursday that the retails sales report would be a key input in determining whether to hike by 75 basis points or 100 basis points at the July 26-27 meeting.
    Traders reduced their bets on the possibility of the 100 basis point hike occurring, cutting the probability to about 42% Friday morning from about double that just a day before, according to CME Group data.

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