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    Private-sector employment has recovered to prepandemic levels.

    Job growth in June was driven by industries recuperating from pandemic-induced losses, and continued business investment in sectors still benefiting from formidable demand for their goods and services, even as borrowing costs increase.Employment is now just a touch away from prepandemic levels, down 524,000, or 0.3 percent, from February 2020. A recovery in private-sector job creation is responsible for the overall gains. Government employment has lagged, with a shortfall of 664,000. Job growth in educational services was solid, seasonally adjusted, suggesting that employment in that sector fell less than usual at the start of summer.A recent wave of layoffs in the tech and housing sectors have made headlines, yet employment in professional and business services is 880,000 above its February 2020 level, and overall hiring last month showed no sign of slowing.“High inflation and a shift of consumer spending from goods to services is causing job losses in some sectors of the economy, but most workers who are losing jobs are finding new ones quickly,” said Bill Adams, the chief economist for Comerica Bank, a large commercial bank based in Dallas.With the large baby boomer population continuing to age, demand for health care workers is growing and the sector added 57,000 jobs in June, leaving it 1.1 percent below its prepandemic levels.There was also a significant pickup in jobs at child care centers, good news for a sector that has faced a particular labor shortage. Though labor force participation in the economy overall was mostly flat compared with May.Leisure and hospitality businesses, which are benefiting from an early summer surge in travel, dining and entertainment, added 67,000 jobs, including 41,000 in food services and drinking places — a welcome boost to the sector, which is still 1.3 million jobs short of its prepandemic employment level. More

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    Unemployment rate for Black women fell in June, but so did their participation in the labor force

    The unemployment rate for Black women fell to 5.6% in June as the labor force participation rate fell to 62%.
    By comparison, the unemployment rate among white women hovered at 2.9% and the labor force participation rate held steady at 57.1%.
    Black workers across the board saw some of the sharpest declines in labor force participation rates for June even as unemployment rates declined.

    Commuters travel on the L train system in the Loop on July 27, 2021 in Chicago, Illinois.
    Scott Olson | Getty Images

    The U.S. unemployment rate fell for Black women last month even as the overall metric held steady across the board, but labor force participation also slipped for the group.
    Headline unemployment hovered at 3.6% in June as the economy gained 372,000 jobs, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said Friday. That’s down slightly from 384,000 additions in May, although the gains topped Dow Jones’ estimate from economists of 250,000.

    The unemployment rate for Black women fell to 5.6% in June, down from 5.9% in the previous month. However, the labor force participation rate, which tracks how many people are employed or searching for work, slipped from 62.7% in May to 62%.
    It’s a reversal from May’s jobs report when the labor force participation rate ticked up 1% for the group.

    By comparison, the unemployment rate among white women hovered at 2.9% as labor force participation rate held steady at 57.1%. Hispanic women saw unemployment tick down to 4.5% as labor force participation hovered at 59.6%.
    “It’s hard to see from this data what is exactly behind it, but black women are withdrawing from employment much more than white women,” said Ariane Hegewisch, senior research fellow at the Institute for Women’s Policy Research.
    The move may signal more withdrawals from the job market and be a contributor to the downtick in the unemployment rate within the group, she said.

    Black workers across the board saw some of the sharpest declines in labor force participation rates for June even as unemployment rates declined. Labor force participation among the group overall fell to 62.2% from 63% in May while the unemployment rate inched 0.4% lower. Black men also saw participation fall from 68.9% to 68.1% in June as the unemployment rate dropped.
    Across the board, labor force participation slipped 0.1% from 62.3% in May. Asian workers saw the unemployment rate rise to 3% from 2.4% in May.
    Monthly jobs data continues to underscore the ongoing inequities in the U.S. employment market, said Kathryn Zickuhr, a labor market policy analyst at the Washington Center for Equitable Growth. Many of these issues existed well before the pandemic began, but some of those gaps are narrowing, she added
    While the unemployment rate among white women, which held steady in June, trails that of Black and Hispanic women, those gaps have decreased slightly from May, when joblessness among Black and Hispanic women stood at 5.9% and 4.7%, respectively.

    “These gaps are real and persistent and until we address them they are going to undermine the resilience of our labor market and economy,” Zickuhr said.
    While monthly changes in the jobs report highlight ongoing discrepancies in the recovery and overall employment market, Valerie Wilson, director of the Economic Policy Institute’s program on race, ethnicity and the economy, cautions against drawing broad conclusions as results can shift with sampling.
    “I think the bigger picture is that all of those numbers are within the range of where they’ve been in the last three months,” she said. “It’s a signal that the recovery is stable.”
    — Gabriel Cortes contributed reporting.

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    Payrolls increased 372,000 in June, more than expected, as jobs market defies recession fears

    Nonfarm payrolls in June increased by 372,000, topping the 250,000 estimate. The unemployment rate remained at 3.6%.
    Average hourly earnings rose 5.1% from a year ago, a touch faster than estimates.
    Education and health services led job creation, followed by professional and business services and leisure and hospitality.

    Job growth accelerated at a much faster pace than expected in June, indicating that the main pillar of the U.S. economy remains strong despite pockets of weakness.
    Nonfarm payrolls increased 372,000 in the month, better than the 250,000 Dow Jones estimate and continuing what has been a strong year for job growth, according to data Friday from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

    The unemployment rate was 3.6%, unchanged from May and in line with estimates. An alternative measure of unemployment that includes discouraged workers and those holding part-time jobs for economic reasons fell sharply, dropping to 6.7% from 7.1%.
    “The strong 372,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in June appears to make a mockery of claims the economy is heading into, let alone already in, a recession,” said Andrew Hunter, senior U.S. economist at Capital Economics.
    Stocks opened slightly weaker following the news while government bonds were sharply higher. The 10-year Treasury yielded 3.06% around 9:30 a.m. ET. That was still below the 2-year yield of 3.103%, a relationship called an “inversion” that historically has been a reliable recession signal.

    Wage gains strong, Fed on track for hike

    June’s gains marked a slight deceleration from the downwardly revised 384,000 in May. April’s count was revised down to 368,000.
    Average hourly earnings increased 0.3% for the month and were up 5.1% from a year ago, the latter number slightly higher than the 5% Dow Jones estimate and indicative that wage pressures remain strong as inflation accelerates. Earnings most recently peaked at 5.6% annually in March.

    The wage number means Federal Reserve officials “are likely to press ahead with aggressive rate hikes over the coming months,” Hunter added. Policymakers have indicated a 0.75 percentage point rate hike is likely at their July meeting.
    “Do the big rate hikes when the economy is strong and the labor market can take it,” Fed Governor Christopher Waller said Thursday.
    By sector, education and health services led job creation, with 96,000 hires, while professional and business services added 74,000 positions. Other contributors included leisure and hospitality (67,000), Health care (57,000), and transportation and warehousing (36,000).
    Additional sectors showing strong gains included manufacturing (29,000), information (25,000) and social assistance (21,000). Government jobs fell by 9,000.
    There was some disparity in the numbers: The headline figure for job creation under the BLS’ establishment survey was strong. But the survey of households showed a decline of 315,000, leaving the total jobs count 755,000 shy of its February 2020 pre-pandemic level.
    “This report reflects that our labor market remains strong despite the challenges and headwinds, and it reflects the fact that the U.S. economy has got some room to face the challenges as the Fed negotiates inflation and as we deal with the war of Russia against Ukraine,” Cecilia Rouse, chair of the White House’s Council of Economic Advisers, told CNBC.

    Recession watch

    The gains come despite an inflation rate running at the fastest pace since the early 1980s. Prices have soared at the pump and the grocery store, as well as in virtually all other aspects of daily life.
    To combat rising inflation, the Fed has instituted a series of interest rate hikes aimed at slowing the economy without causing a recession. However, recent indicators show that growth has cooled considerably.
    Inflation has hit lower-income households especially. Bank of America credit and debit card data shows spending among the sector fell 1% year over year as of June 30, a potentially ominous sign for an economy that draws more than two-thirds of its growth from consumers.
    Gross domestic product contracted 1.6% in the first quarter and is on pace to decline 1.9% in the second quarter, meeting the common definition of a recession. Slower spending and a sharp decline in private investment is responsible for much of the pullback.
    The jobs market has been seen as the bulwark against a recession, and June’s numbers show that the employment pillar remains strong.
    “The June jobs report was very strong, even stronger than expected. Job growth was well above the consensus expectation, the unemployment rate held just above a decades-long low, and wage growth was solid,” wrote Gus Faucher, chief economist at PNC Financial Services Group. “This very strong job growth clearly demonstrates that the US economy is not anywhere close to recession in mid-2022.”

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    Democrats Propose Raising Taxes on Some High Earners to Bolster Medicare

    The draft plan, which is expected to be unveiled in the coming days, is part of talks over how to salvage pieces of President Biden’s domestic agenda.WASHINGTON — Senate Democrats will push to raise taxes on some high-earning Americans and steer the money to improving the solvency of Medicare, according to officials briefed on the plan, as they cobble together a modest version of President Biden’s stalled tax and spending package.The proposal is projected to raise $203 billion over a decade by imposing an additional 3.8 percent tax on income earned from owning a piece of what is known as a pass-through business, such as a law firm or medical practice. The money that would be generated by the change is estimated to be enough to extend the solvency of the Medicare trust fund that pays for hospital care — currently set to begin running out of money in 2028 — until 2031.It is the most recent agreement to emerge from private negotiations between Senator Chuck Schumer of New York, the majority leader, and Senator Joe Manchin III of West Virginia, a conservative-leaning Democrat who has demanded that his party rein in its sweeping ambitions for a domestic policy plan. In December, Mr. Manchin torpedoed efforts to pass Mr. Biden’s $2.2 trillion social safety net, climate and tax package because of concerns over its cost and impact on the economy at a time of rising inflation.His backing is critical because, with Republicans expected to be uniformly opposed, the only way Democrats can pass the package through the evenly divided Senate is to win unanimous backing from their caucus and do so under special budget rules that would shield it from a filibuster and allow it to pass on a simple majority vote.Mr. Schumer has worked to salvage key components of the plan that could meet that test, including a plan released on Wednesday to lower the cost of prescription drugs. Mr. Manchin has repeatedly said such legislation should focus on tax reform and drug pricing, as well as efforts to lower the national debt. The bill is also expected to include some climate and energy provisions, a key priority for Democrats, although they have yet to be agreed upon.Democratic leaders, who hope to move the legislation through the Senate this month, are expected to formally release the Medicare plan in the coming days, according to the officials, who disclosed preliminary details on the condition of anonymity.The fast-track budget process that the party plans to use for the overall package, known as reconciliation, requires legislation to abide by strict budgetary rules enforced by the Senate parliamentarian. The prescription drug legislation has been submitted to the parliamentarian, and Democrats plan to submit the tax increase and Medicare piece in coming days.The portion of Medicare that pays for hospital bills is funded through a special trust fund, largely financed by payroll taxes. But with escalating health care costs and an aging population, current revenues won’t be enough to pay all of Medicare’s hospital bills forever. According to the most recent report from Medicare’s trustees, the fund will be depleted in 2028 without new revenues or spending cuts.The Democrats’ plan would extend an existing 3.8 percent net investment income tax to so-called pass-through income, earned from businesses that distribute profits to their owners. Many people who work at such firms — such as law partners and hedge fund managers — earn high incomes, but avoid the 3.8 percent tax on the bulk of it.The new proposal would apply only to people earning more than $400,000 a year, and joint filers, trusts and estates bringing in more than $500,000, in accordance with Mr. Biden’s pledge that he would not raise taxes for people who make less than $400,000 a year. The proposal is similar to a tax increase Mr. Biden proposed in 2021 to help offset the cost of a set of new spending programs meant to help workers and families, like home health care and child care.Senator Joe Manchin III has said Democrats should focus on tax reform, prescription drug costs and efforts to lower the national debt.Tom Brenner for The New York TimesImposing the new tax on pass-through income would raise about $202.6 billion over a decade, according to an estimate from the Joint Committee on Taxation provided to Senate Democrats and reviewed by The New York Times. Those funds would be funneled directly into the Hospital Insurance Trust Fund, which covers inpatient hospital care, some home health care and hospice care.The Office of the Actuary in the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services informed Democratic staff that the additional revenue generated would extend the hospital trust fund’s solvency from 2028 to 2031.“Medicare is a lifeline for millions of American seniors and Senator Manchin has always supported pathways to ensure it remains solvent,” said Sam Runyon, a spokeswoman for Mr. Manchin. “He remains optimistic there is a path to do just that.”She cautioned that an overall deal on a broader climate, tax and spending package has yet to be struck. Some Democrats also hope to include an extension of expanded Affordable Care Act subsidies, which passed on a party-line vote in the $1.9 trillion pandemic aid package in 2021.“Senator Manchin still has serious unresolved concerns, and there is a lot of work to be done before it’s conceivable that a deal can be reached he can sign onto,” Ms. Runyon said.While Mr. Manchin has said he would support additional tax increases, any changes to the tax code must also win the support of Senator Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona, a centrist who opposed many of her party’s initial tax proposals.And while many Democrats are anxious to address climate change before the midterm elections, which may change the balance of power in Washington, Mr. Manchin, who has been protective of his state’s coal industry, continues to haggle over that issue.The heart of the climate plan is expected to be approximately $300 billion in tax credits to expand the development of clean energy like wind, solar and battery storage, a significantly smaller plan that reflects concessions to Mr. Manchin, according to several people familiar with the negotiations.Negotiators are also considering tax credits to incentivize the purchase of electric vehicles, though it is unclear whether Mr. Manchin will support such a provision.Lisa Friedman More

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    Amazon Hub in Newark Is Canceled After Unions and Local Groups Object

    The e-commerce giant planned to build an airport cargo center, hire 1,000 workers and invest hundreds of millions of dollars over 20 years.For the second time, plans by Amazon to substantially expand its presence in the New York area have been abandoned after labor and community groups mobilized in opposition.In 2019, Amazon abruptly canceled plans to build a second headquarters in New York City after facing a barrage of criticism that it did not anticipate. This time, the e-commerce giant was unable to complete a deal for a cargo hub at Newark Liberty International Airport.The project, which hinged on a 20-year lease worth hundreds of millions of dollars, attracted opposition after the Port Authority disclosed it last summer.“Unfortunately, the Port Authority and Amazon have been unable to reach an agreement on final lease terms and mutually concluded that further negotiations will not resolve the outstanding issues,” Huntley Lawrence, the Port Authority’s chief operating officer, said in a statement on Thursday.Advocacy groups and unions involved had said they could not support the lease unless Amazon made a set of concessions that included labor agreements and a zero-emissions benchmark at the facility.“This victory signals that if Amazon wants to continue growing in New Jersey, it’s going to have to do it on our terms,” said Sara Cullinane, director of Make the Road New Jersey, an advocacy group that had questioned the deal.Amazon, which expressed confidence in May that the deal would close, expressed disappointment in a statement, adding that “we’re proud of our robust presence in New Jersey and look forward to continued investments in the state.”Amazon had estimated that the project would create more than 1,000 jobs, though many of those jobs could still be created if the Port Authority awards the lease to another company. Two other companies bid on the project.“The growth of air cargo and the redevelopment of airport facilities in a manner that benefits the region as well as the local community remain a top priority of the Port Authority,” Mr. Lawrence, the chief operating officer, added in his statement.The bigger long-term impact may be on Amazon’s ability to deliver packages efficiently in the Northeast, which it serves with airport hubs near Allentown, Pa.; Hartford, Conn.; and Baltimore. “Newark was the obvious choice,” said Marc Wulfraat, an industry consultant who closely tracks Amazon’s facilities. “It is right there on the doorstep of New York City.”Understand the Unionization Efforts at AmazonBeating the Giant: A homegrown, low-budget push to unionize at a Staten Island warehouse led to a historic labor victory. (Workers at another nearby Amazon facility rejected joining a similar effort shortly after.)Retaliation: Weeks after the landmark win, Amazon fired several managers in Staten Island. Some saw it as retaliation for their involvement in the unionization efforts.Diverging Outcomes: Why has a union campaign at Starbucks spread so much further than at the e-commerce giant?Amazon’s Approach: The company has countered unionization efforts with mandatory “training” sessions that carry clear anti-union messages.Mr. Wulfraat said Amazon could look for other commercial airports in the region, even if their locations were less ideal, to support the growing package volume.It was in part the company’s prominence in the state that attracted opposition to the project. A report produced by groups seeking to block it pointed out that the number of Amazon facilities in New Jersey grew to 49 from one between 2013 and 2020, helping to nearly triple the number of warehouse workers in the state, to about 70,000. Over the same period, the average wage for those workers fell to about $44,000 per year from over $53,000 per year, adjusting for inflation, according to Labor Department data.New Jersey is one of the more unionized states in the country, while Amazon has opposed unionization efforts at its facilities.Amazon said that average starting pay for its hourly workers is more than $18 nationally. The median hourly wage in New Jersey was about $23 last year. The company also cited its benefits, including full health coverage for full-time employees as soon as they start working; a 401(k) plan with a 50 percent company match; and up to 20 weeks of paid parental leave.The Port Authority revealed the proposed lease with Amazon in August, the day its board voted to authorize the deal. The authority said that it expected the lease to take effect on or around Nov. 1, according to minutes of the meeting.“It was something that they were trying to slip in without notifying the community, which was quite unfortunate,” said Kim Gaddy, executive director of the South Ward Environmental Alliance, which focuses on environmental issues affecting Newark residents. Under the proposed deal, Amazon tentatively committed to investing $125 million in renovating two buildings at the airport, and to paying the Port Authority more than $300 million over 20 years — including $150 million up front.Amazon’s plan for the Newark hub involved renovating two buildings at the airport.Bryan Anselm for The New York TimesBy September, the groups led by Ms. Cullinane and Ms. Gaddy, along with other advocacy groups and unions like the Teamsters and the Retail, Wholesale and Department Store Union, began to coordinate their opposition. The groups circulated petitions that collected thousands of signatures from residents and staged public events like rallies and a march.The project appeared to stall after the November timetable for finalizing the lease passed without any announcement.In late March, a spokeswoman for Gov. Phil Murphy, who had initially praised the deal, said in a statement that “the governor encourages anyone doing business in our state to work collaboratively with labor partners in good faith.” (The governor’s office declined to comment on Thursday.) Other politicians in the state appeared to grow skeptical after the Amazon Labor Union’s election victory this year at a Staten Island warehouse, a result Amazon is contesting.Amazon uses an airport facility in Allentown, Pa., to serve the surrounding region, but it has outgrown the capacity.Mark Makela/ReutersAmazon has opened air hubs in recent years to move products through its own logistics network, rather than rely on outside providers. It prefers to fulfill customer orders with local inventory, for cheaper, quicker delivery, but when the product a customer wants is not in a nearby warehouse, it will fly the product to meet its shipping promises.Its operations expansion went into overdrive during the pandemic as e-commerce sales boomed. “We doubled our capacity that we built in the first 25 years of Amazon in just 24 months,” Andy Jassy, the chief executive, told investors in May.But the company has acknowledged that it overbuilt, expanding and hiring more than demand required, and in April it posted its first quarterly loss since 2015. This year Amazon has pulled back from some investments. “We’re trying to defer building activity on properties where we just don’t need the capacity yet, and we’re going let some leases expire as well,” Mr. Jassy said. More

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    Jobs Aplenty, but a Shortage of Care Keeps Many Women From Benefiting

    A lack of child care and elder care options has forced some women to limit their hours or sidelined them altogether, hurting their career prospects.A dearth of child care and elder care choices is causing many women to reorganize their working lives and prompting some to forgo jobs altogether, hurting the economy at a moment when companies are desperate to hire, and forcing trade-offs that could impair careers.Care workers have left the industry in large numbers amid the pandemic, shrinking the number of nursery and nursing home employees by hundreds of thousands. At the same time, coronavirus outbreaks have led to intermittent school shutdowns, which, in turn, have made care demands less predictable and increased the need for reliable backup options.Although plenty of men have also taken on increased care duties since the pandemic began, women perform most caregiving in America, according to the Labor Department. They have made a surprising return to the labor market in spite of that challenge.Federal data shows that the share of women participating in the labor market by working, or by looking for jobs, remains depressed relative to 2019, but it has recovered roughly as much as the share for men has. Mothers still work less than other women, but the gap between the two has narrowed to about the level that prevailed before the pandemic, an analysis by the Federal Reserve found.Yet those signs of a comeback hide strains beneath the surface. A deeper dive into the Labor Department’s monthly survey of households shows that unmarried women without college degrees who have young children have returned to work more slowly than others, a sign that the shortage of care is making them particularly vulnerable.Self-employment has also surged among mothers, suggesting that many women are finding ways to make work more flexible as they scramble to balance care responsibilities with their need to earn money. Other women talk about putting in fewer hours and juggling increased workloads.In February, about 39 percent of women with children younger than 5 told Stanford’s RAPID Survey that they had quit their jobs or reduced their hours since the pandemic began, up from 33 percent at the same time last year. More than 90 percent of those women said they did so of their own accord, not because they were laid off or had their hours cut. Last year, that number was 65 percent.Change in women’s employment rate since Jan. 2020

    Notes: Three-month rolling average of seasonally adjusted data for women ages 20-44. “Young children” are under age 5. Women with older children not shown. College graduates have bachelor’s degrees.Source: Current Population Survey via IPUMSBy The New York TimesThose forced to cut back on work could face lasting disadvantages. They are missing out on an unusual moment of worker power, in which many employees are bargaining for higher wages or switching to more lucrative jobs. Right now, the fields where women are most concentrated — including service sector jobs in hospitality and health care — have some of the most openings and the most rapid pay growth.“I think it will be really interesting to see what the long-term consequences are on mothers’ career opportunities,” said Ariane Hegewisch, the program director in employment and earnings at the Institute for Women’s Policy Research. “Women have continued to work, but they clearly had to cut back.”The State of Jobs in the United StatesJob gains continue to maintain their impressive run, even as government policymakers took steps to cool the economy and ease inflation.May Jobs Report: U.S. employers added 390,000 jobs and the unemployment rate remained steady at 3.6 percent ​​in the fifth month of 2022.Downsides of a Hot Market: Students are forgoing degrees in favor of the attractive positions offered by employers desperate to hire. That could come back to haunt them.Slowing Down: Economists and policymakers are beginning to argue that what the economy needs right now is less hiring and less wage growth. Here’s why.Opportunities for Teenagers: Jobs for high school and college students are expected to be plentiful this summer, and a large market means better pay.America’s long-running caregiving shortage, for both children and older adults, was compounded by the pandemic.The professional caregiving work force — also disproportionately female — hasn’t recovered. More than one child care worker in 10 hasn’t returned, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (although that data may not capture all the single-employee, home-based operators that make up a huge part of the sector). The number of nursing home workers remains 11.5 percent below its level in February 2020. Together, the two categories represent a loss of 500,000 jobs.“For women, that’s the double whammy — most of those workers are women, and most of the people who need those supports to enter the work force themselves are women,” said Katherine Gallagher Robbins, a senior fellow with the National Partnership for Women and Families.At the same time, there is new demand for care. After a decrease in the number of births early in the pandemic, nearly 3.7 million people were born last year, up 1 percent from 2020 and the first such increase since 2014.Christy Charny, a college administrative assistant in Fort Collins, Colo., recently talked to her manager about dialing back her hours from full time to part time. She likes her job and needs it for the health insurance it provides, but her 12-week-old daughter was having trouble nursing, and paying for full-time infant care was a nonstarter for her and her husband.“There is no way that we can afford $1,500 a month for child care on our full-time salaries,” said Ms. Charny, 32. “We would go into debt just so that I could work full time.”For a while, she was struggling to find any child care at all. She couldn’t afford full-time help, and the day care center where she had put down a deposit wouldn’t give her a discount if she used it only part time. She was frantically looking for other options when good news arrived: The most affordable nursery in her area, where she had been on the waiting list since October 2021, had a part-time opening.The days — Tuesday, Thursday and Friday — were not exactly right for her professional schedule, but the place was just $246 per week, so she was going to try it.“I know we can make it work if we’re careful and we cut back on other expenses,” she said. Ms. Charny’s husband sells shoes at REI, and together they make about $60,000 before taxes.Economists have long identified a lack of available and affordable child care as a reason that American women do not work more, sometimes by comparing the United States with Canada — which is economically similar in many ways but has more generous child care and parental leave policies and a higher rate of female employment. The same is true for parts of Europe.“Until 1995, the U.S. was the world’s leader in terms of female labor force participation,” said Claudia Goldin, an economist at Harvard. “Now, this host of countries that we used to think were backward in terms of gender norms have exceeded the U.S.”And it is no surprise that the burden of care without professional help falls on workers with less education, who tend to earn less.There is a “financial trade-off between work and child care” that hinges on “what share of your income that child care eats up,” said Sarah House, an economist at Wells Fargo. “It’s a much smaller share if you’re a working professional with a six-figure salary than if you are working a restaurant job and barely clearing $30,000.”Stanford’s RAPID Survey also showed that most mothers who cut back on work did so even though they didn’t have adequate income without it. And for those staying on the job, volatility in the child care industry can add considerable stress.“If you were hanging on to an official home-based provider to take your kid so you could go to your work, and that person closed their doors, you probably couldn’t afford to stop working,” said the survey’s director, Philip Fisher. “So you’d have to rely on anything you could pull together.”As some mothers pull back, there are implications for the economy. Employers are missing a key source of labor at a time when they have nearly two job openings for every unemployed person.Washington has tried to offset the problem to allow more parents to return to work. The American Rescue Plan, enacted last year, supplied $39 billion to help child care providers stay open, and probably prevented even larger reductions in care. Some states have supplemented that money, while others have relaxed licensing requirements and allowed a bigger ratio of children to care providers.The White House’s Build Back Better legislation included $400 billion for child care and prekindergarten, and a recent study by a team of economists estimated a similar plan could raise the rate at which mothers are employed by six percentage points. But the legislation floundered as concerns about spending mounted.Finding care for older adults also grew more difficult after Covid-19 ripped through nursing homes and sent nurses fleeing the bedside.Because of its dedicated federal funding stream, the elder care industry is larger and more formalized than the child care sector. But its work force is similarly low paid, and has gone through a harrowing time during the pandemic.Dorinda McDougald has been a clinical nursing assistant at Ellicott Center in Buffalo for 25 years.Malik Rainey for The New York TimesAccording to a recent survey conducted by ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​the American Health Care Association, a nursing home trade group, wages for nurses have increased by between 28 percent and 34 percent since the pandemic began. But only about 5 percent of the nurses who left have returned to such institutionalized settings, according to federal data. Among the challenges for such centers is the tight labor market.Dorinda McDougald is one of those who have stuck it out. She has been a clinical nursing assistant at Ellicott Center in Buffalo for 25 years and makes about $18 an hour.“I stay there for the residents, because they deserve quality care,” she said. But not everyone makes the same choice: One of Ms. McDougald’s colleagues recently left to work at a Red Lobster. “You’d have to compete with the area,” Ms. McDougald said. “Everybody else is paying $16, $17, $18.”Data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention shows that about 31 percent of nursing homes are reporting staffing shortages, which can prevent them from taking in more residents.Part of that reflects a shift toward home-based care, which both workers and patients have found safer and otherwise more appealing. Nursing home workers have also left for staffing agencies and hospitals, which offer better pay and more opportunities for advancement.Among the states reporting the most widespread staffing shortages is Minnesota, where 69 percent of nursing homes say they don’t have enough caregivers. That state has a higher-than-average share of nonprofit facilities that depend on Medicaid and Medicare reimbursements, which the industry says have not been adjusted for the increased cost of operations.That’s where Staci Drouillard, 54, has been trying to find a place for her parents.She lives in Grand Marais, on Lake Superior, two hours northeast of Duluth. Her father, who is 87 years old and a lifelong resident of the town, has dementia. Her mother, 83, cared for him until she had a series of strokes.Both parents worked, but they weren’t able to build enough savings to afford home-based care, even if a local aide were available. The county’s only nursing home has 37 beds, but six are empty because of staff vacancies, according to the facility’s chief executive.Now, the task falls to Ms. Drouillard, who goes to her parents’ house most days. After getting a promotion at the radio station where she works, she shifted to a position that is home-based, with fewer hours, lower pay and less authority, as caregiving consumed more and more of her time.“As I watched my parents’ health deteriorate and decline, I realized I needed to pivot to a job that has less responsibility,” Ms. Drouillard said. “Their care is kind of like having another job, except you don’t really know what hours you’re going to work.” More

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    Fed officials Waller and Bullard back another big interest rate increase in July

    The Fed is well on its way to another sharp interest rate hike in July and perhaps September as well, even if it slows the economy, two officials said Thursday.
    “I’m definitely in support of doing another 75 basis point hike in July, probably 50 in September,” Fed Governor Christopher Waller said.

    The Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve Board Building in Washington, D.C.
    Sarah Silbiger | Reuters

    The Federal Reserve is well on its way to another sharp interest rate hike in July and perhaps September as well, even if it slows the economy, according to statements Thursday from two policymakers.
    Fed Governor Christopher Waller left little doubt that he believes increases are necessary if the institution is to meet its duties, and the market’s expectations, as an inflation fighter.

    “I’m definitely in support of doing another 75 basis point hike in July, probably 50 in September, and then after that we can debate whether to go back down to 25s,” Waller told the National Association for Business Economics. “If inflation just doesn’t seem to be coming down, we have to do more.”
    In June, the Fed approved a 75 basis point, or 0.75 percentage point, increase to its benchmark borrowing rate, the biggest such move since 1994.
    Markets widely expect another such move in July and continued increases until the fed funds rate hits a range of 3.25%-3.5% by the end of 2022. The increases are an attempt to control inflation running at its highest level since 1981.

    “Inflation is a tax on economic activity, and the higher the tax the more it suppresses economic activity,” Waller added. “If we don’t get inflation under control, inflation on its own can place us in a really bad economic outcome down the road.”
    St. Louis Fed President James Bullard echoed Waller’s comments in a separate appearance, saying he believes the best approach is to act quickly now then evaluate the impact the hikes are having.

    “I think it would make a lot of sense to go with the 75 at this juncture,” said Bullard, a Federal Open Market Committee voting member this year. “I’ve advocated and continue to advocate getting to 3.5% this year, then we can see where we are and see how inflation’s developing at that point.”
    Both officials said they think recession fears are overblown, though Waller said the Fed needs to risk an economic slowdown so it can get inflation under control.
    “We’re going to get inflation down. That means we are going to be aggressive on rate hikes and we may have to take the risk of causing some economic damage, but I don’t think given how strong the labor market is right now that that should be that much,” he said.

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    Goldman slashes GDP forecast for the second quarter to just barely above water

    Goldman sliced its second-quarter outlook for GDP to just 0.7%, down from the previous expectation of a 1.9% increase.
    Combined with the decline of 1.6% in the first quarter that would bring the first half to within a whisker of a recession.
    Wells Fargo economists said they expect more aggressive Fed policy to step up the timeline for a “moderate” recession starting soon and lasting a year.

    A Goldman Sachs Group Inc. logo hangs on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange in New York, U.S., on Wednesday, May 19, 2010.
    Daniel Acker | Bloomberg | Getty Images

    Amid heightened concerns that a recession is looming, Goldman Sachs economists expect the U.S. economy barely grew in the second quarter.
    The Wall Street firm’s forecasters on Thursday sliced their outlook for gross domestic product in the April-to-June period to an annualized gain of just 0.7%, down from the previous expectation of a 1.9% increase.

    Combined with the decline of 1.6% in the first quarter that would bring the first half to within a whisker of a recession, which is generally defined as two straight quarterly declines in GDP.
    Goldman’s adjustment follows a report Thursday morning showing that the U.S. trade deficit declined in May to $85.5 billion, the lowest level of 2022, but deeper than the Dow Jones estimate for $84.7 billion. The number was influenced by a $2.8 billion decrease in the shortfall with China, as the nation grappled with lockdowns brought on by a Covid surge.
    “The details of the May trade report were weaker than our previous assumptions, and we now expect real goods imports to remain elevated through June,” Goldman said in a client note.
    The GDP adjustment comes amid a darkening outlook for the economy and some expectations that a shallow recession may even have arrived already.

    In a related adjustment, the Atlanta Federal Reserve updated its GDPNow tracker Thursday morning to show an expected Q2 decline of 1.9%. That, however, was a slight improvement from July 1, when the gauge pointed to a 2.1% drop.

    Fed officials have expressed optimism that the economy can skirt a recession despite tighter policy aimed at controlling runaway inflation. The central bank has raised benchmark borrowing rates by 1.5 percentage points this year and expects to keep going to a “restrictive” rate aimed at pulling back growth.
    Wells Fargo economists said they expect the more aggressive Federal Reserve rate-cutting policy to step up the timeline for a “moderate” recession that they see beginning soon and lasting into mid-2023.
    “Our outlook through 2023 has evolved based on how strong labor market and abundant cash supports are eroding under persistent inflation and [the Fed’s] increasingly aggressive policy response,” the firm wrote. “Whether inflation peaks this summer or autumn matters less to our view than inflation’s staying power, no matter when it peaks. The erosion is quickening and the path to recession appears to have sharpened its trajectory for the U.S. and, a little later, for the eurozone.”
    New Wells Fargo forecasts see GDP falling 0.2% in 2022 and rising 0.9% in 2023. The previous respective forecasts were for a gain of 1.5% and a decline of 0.5%

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